Analysis of Breast Cancer Mortality in the US-1975 to 2019.

Importance: Breast cancer mortality in the US declined between 1975 and 2019. The association of changes in metastatic breast cancer treatment with improved breast cancer mortality is unclear. Objective: To simulate the relative associations of breast cancer screening, treatment of stage I to III breast cancer, and treatment of metastatic breast cancer with improved breast cancer mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: Using aggregated observational and clinical trial data on the dissemination and effects of screening and treatment, 4 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models simulated US breast cancer mortality rates. Death due to breast cancer, overall and by estrogen receptor and ERBB2 (formerly HER2) status, among women aged 30 to 79 years in the US from 1975 to 2019 was simulated. Exposures: Screening mammography, treatment of stage I to III breast cancer, and treatment of metastatic breast cancer. Main Outcomes and Measures: Model-estimated age-adjusted breast cancer mortality rate associated with screening, stage I to III treatment, and metastatic treatment relative to the absence of these exposures was assessed, as was model-estimated median survival after breast cancer metastatic recurrence. Results: The breast cancer mortality rate in the US (age adjusted) was 48/100 000 women in 1975 and 27/100 000 women in 2019. In 2019, the combination of screening, stage I to III treatment, and metastatic treatment was associated with a 58% reduction (model range, 55%-61%) in breast cancer mortality. Of this reduction, 29% (model range, 19%-33%) was associated with treatment of metastatic breast cancer, 47% (model range, 35%-60%) with treatment of stage I to III breast cancer, and 25% (model range, 21%-33%) with mammography screening. Based on simulations, the greatest change in survival after metastatic recurrence occurred between 2000 and 2019, from 1.9 years (model range, 1.0-2.7 years) to 3.2 years (model range, 2.0-4.9 years). Median survival for estrogen receptor (ER)-positive/ERBB2-positive breast cancer improved by 2.5 years (model range, 2.0-3.4 years), whereas median survival for ER-/ERBB2- breast cancer improved by 0.5 years (model range, 0.3-0.8 years). Conclusions and Relevance: According to 4 simulation models, breast cancer screening and treatment in 2019 were associated with a 58% reduction in US breast cancer mortality compared with interventions in 1975. Simulations suggested that treatment for stage I to III breast cancer was associated with approximately 47% of the mortality reduction, whereas treatment for metastatic breast cancer was associated with 29% of the reduction and screening with 25% of the reduction.

Collaborative Modeling to Compare Different Breast Cancer Screening Strategies: A Decision Analysis for the US Preventive Services Task Force.

Importance: The effects of breast cancer incidence changes and advances in screening and treatment on outcomes of different screening strategies are not well known. Objective: To estimate outcomes of various mammography screening strategies. Design, Setting, and Population: Comparison of outcomes using 6 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models and national data on breast cancer incidence, mammography performance, treatment effects, and other-cause mortality in US women without previous cancer diagnoses. Exposures: Thirty-six screening strategies with varying start ages (40, 45, 50 years) and stop ages (74, 79 years) with digital mammography or digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) annually, biennially, or a combination of intervals. Strategies were evaluated for all women and for Black women, assuming 100% screening adherence and "real-world" treatment. Main Outcomes and Measures: Estimated lifetime benefits (breast cancer deaths averted, percent reduction in breast cancer mortality, life-years gained), harms (false-positive recalls, benign biopsies, overdiagnosis), and number of mammograms per 1000 women. Results: Biennial screening with DBT starting at age 40, 45, or 50 years until age 74 years averted a median of 8.2, 7.5, or 6.7 breast cancer deaths per 1000 women screened, respectively, vs no screening. Biennial DBT screening at age 40 to 74 years (vs no screening) was associated with a 30.0% breast cancer mortality reduction, 1376 false-positive recalls, and 14 overdiagnosed cases per 1000 women screened. Digital mammography screening benefits were similar to those for DBT but had more false-positive recalls. Annual screening increased benefits but resulted in more false-positive recalls and overdiagnosed cases. Benefit-to-harm ratios of continuing screening until age 79 years were similar or superior to stopping at age 74. In all strategies, women with higher-than-average breast cancer risk, higher breast density, and lower comorbidity level experienced greater screening benefits than other groups. Annual screening of Black women from age 40 to 49 years with biennial screening thereafter reduced breast cancer mortality disparities while maintaining similar benefit-to-harm trade-offs as for all women. Conclusions: This modeling analysis suggests that biennial mammography screening starting at age 40 years reduces breast cancer mortality and increases life-years gained per mammogram. More intensive screening for women with greater risk of breast cancer diagnosis or death can maintain similar benefit-to-harm trade-offs and reduce mortality disparities.

Patient-reported tolerability of adjuvant ipilimumab (3 or 10 mg/kg) versus high-dose interferon alfa-2b for resected high-risk stage III-IV melanoma in phase III trial E1609.

PURPOSE: Trial E1609 demonstrated superior overall survival with ipilimumab 3 mg/kg (ipi3) compared to high-dose interferon (HDI) for patients with resected high-risk melanoma. To inform treatment tolerability, we compared health-related quality of life (HRQoL), gastrointestinal (GI), and treatment-specific physical and cognitive/emotional symptoms. We also compared treatment-specific concerns between all arms. METHODS: We assessed HRQoL using the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-General, physical and cognitive/emotional concerns using the FACT-Biologic Response Modifier subscale, and GI symptoms with the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Diarrhea subscale pre-treatment and every 3 months. The primary outcome was the difference in HRQoL at 3 months between ipi3/ipi10 vs. HDI. RESULTS: 549 patients (n = 158 ipi3; n = 191 ipi10; n = 200 HDI) were analyzed. 3-month completion was 58.7%. Compared to HDI, ipilimumab patients reported better HRQoL (ipi3 = 87.5 ± 14.6 vs. HDI = 74.7 ± 15.4, p < .001; ipi10 = 84.9 ± 16.5 vs. HDI, p < .001) and fewer physical (ipi3 = 22.3 ± 4.6 vs. HDI = 17.1 ± 5.4, p < .001; ipi10 = 21.8 ± 5.0 vs. HDI p < .001) and cognitive/emotional (ipi3 = 18.6 ± 4.4 vs. HDI = 15.0 ± 5.3, p < .001; ipi10 = 17.7 ± 4.8 vs. HDI p < .001) concerns, but worse GI symptoms (ipi3 = 40.8 ± 5.0 vs. HDI = 42.2 ± 2.9, p = .011; ipi10 = 39.5 ± 7.0 vs. HDI, p < .001). Fewer ipilimumab patients reported worsening treatment-specific concerns (e.g., 52% of ipi3 and 58% of ipi10 reported worsening fatigue vs. 82% HDI, p's < .001). CONCLUSION: PROs demonstrated less toxicity of ipi3 compared to HDI and ipi10. Priorities for symptom management among patients receiving ipilimumab include GI toxicities, fatigue, weakness, appetite loss, arthralgia, and depression. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01274338, January 11, 2011 (first posted date) https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01274338?term=NCT01274338&draw=2&rank=1 .

Enhanced immune activation within the tumor microenvironment and circulation of female high-risk melanoma patients and improved survival with adjuvant CTLA4 blockade compared to males.

BACKGROUND: We hypothesized that a gender difference in clinical response may exist to adjuvant CTLA4 blockade with ipilimumab versus high-dose IFNα (HDI). We investigated differences in candidate immune biomarkers in the circulation and tumor microenvironment (TME). PATIENTS AND METHODS: This gender-based analysis was nested within the E1609 trial that tested adjuvant therapy with ipilimumab 3 mg/kg (ipi3) and 10 mg/kg (ipi10) versus HDI in high risk resected melanoma. We investigated gender differences in treatment efficacy with ipi3 and ipi10 versus HDI while adjusting for age, stage, ECOG performance (PS), ulceration, primary tumor status and lymph node number. Forest plots were created to compare overall survival (OS) and relapse free survival (RFS) between ipi and HDI. Gene expression profiling (GEP) was performed on tumors of 718 (454 male, 264 female) patients. Similarly, serum and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) samples were tested for soluble and cellular biomarkers (N = 321 patients; 109 female and 212 male). RESULTS: The subgroups of female, stage IIIC, PS = 1, ulcerated primary, in-transit metastasis demonstrated significant improvement in RFS and/or OS with ipi3 versus HDI. Female gender was significant for both OS and RFS and was further explored. In the RFS comparison, a multivariate Cox regression model including significant variables indicated a significant interaction between gender and treatment (P = 0.024). In peripheral blood, percentages of CD3+ T cells (P = 0.024) and CD3+ CD4+ helper T cells (P = 0.0001) were higher in females compared to males. Trends toward higher circulating levels of IL1ß (P = 0.07) and IL6 (P = 0.06) were also found in females. Males had higher percentages of monocytes (P = 0.03) with trends toward higher percentages of regulatory T cells (T-reg). Tumor GEP analysis supported enhanced infiltration with immune cells including gammadelta T cells (P = 0.005), NK cells (P = 0.01), dendritic cells (P = 0.01), CD4+ T cells (P = 0.03), CD8+ T cells (P = 0.03) and T-reg (P = 0.008) in the tumors of females compared to males and a higher T-effector and IFNγ gene signature score (P = 0.0244). CONCLUSION: Female gender was associated with adjuvant CTLA4 blockade clinical benefits and female patients were more likely to have evidence of type1 immune activation within the TME and the circulation. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01274338. Registered 11 January 2011, https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov/ct2/show/NCT01274338.

Reflecting on 20 years of breast cancer modeling in CISNET: Recommendations for future cancer systems modeling efforts.

Since 2000, the National Cancer Institute's Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) modeling teams have developed and applied microsimulation and statistical models of breast cancer. Here, we illustrate the use of collaborative breast cancer multilevel systems modeling in CISNET to demonstrate the flexibility of systems modeling to address important clinical and policy-relevant questions. Challenges and opportunities of future systems modeling are also summarized. The 6 CISNET breast cancer models embody the key features of systems modeling by incorporating numerous data sources and reflecting tumor, person, and health system factors that change over time and interact to affect the burden of breast cancer. Multidisciplinary modeling teams have explored alternative representations of breast cancer to reveal insights into breast cancer natural history, including the role of overdiagnosis and race differences in tumor characteristics. The models have been used to compare strategies for improving the balance of benefits and harms of breast cancer screening based on personal risk factors, including age, breast density, polygenic risk, and history of Down syndrome or a history of childhood cancer. The models have also provided evidence to support the delivery of care by simulating outcomes following clinical decisions about breast cancer treatment and estimating the relative impact of screening and treatment on the United States population. The insights provided by the CISNET breast cancer multilevel modeling efforts have informed policy and clinical guidelines. The 20 years of CISNET modeling experience has highlighted opportunities and challenges to expanding the impact of systems modeling. Moving forward, CISNET research will continue to use systems modeling to address cancer control issues, including modeling structural inequities affecting racial disparities in the burden of breast cancer. Future work will also leverage the lessons from team science, expand resource sharing, and foster the careers of early stage modeling scientists to ensure the sustainability of these efforts.

Modeling the natural history of ductal carcinoma in situ based on population data.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) has increased substantially since the introduction of mammography screening. Nevertheless, little is known about the natural history of preclinical DCIS in the absence of biopsy or complete excision. METHODS: Two well-established population models evaluated six possible DCIS natural history submodels. The submodels assumed 30%, 50%, or 80% of breast lesions progress from undetectable DCIS to preclinical screen-detectable DCIS; each model additionally allowed or prohibited DCIS regression. Preclinical screen-detectable DCIS could also progress to clinical DCIS or invasive breast cancer (IBC). Applying US population screening dissemination patterns, the models projected age-specific DCIS and IBC incidence that were compared to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data. Models estimated mean sojourn time (MST) in the preclinical screen-detectable DCIS state, overdiagnosis, and the risk of progression from preclinical screen-detectable DCIS. RESULTS: Without biopsy and surgical excision, the majority of DCIS (64-100%) in the preclinical screen-detectable state progressed to IBC in submodels assuming no DCIS regression (36-100% in submodels allowing for DCIS regression). DCIS overdiagnosis differed substantially between models and submodels, 3.1-65.8%. IBC overdiagnosis ranged 1.3-2.4%. Submodels assuming DCIS regression resulted in a higher DCIS overdiagnosis than submodels without DCIS regression. MST for progressive DCIS varied between 0.2 and 2.5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the majority of screen-detectable but unbiopsied preclinical DCIS lesions progress to IBC and that the MST is relatively short. Nevertheless, due to the heterogeneity of DCIS, more research is needed to understand the progression of DCIS by grades and molecular subtypes.

An updated analysis of 4 randomized ECOG trials of high-dose interferon in the adjuvant treatment of melanoma.

BACKGROUND: The pivotal E1684, E1690, E1694, and E2696 trials of adjuvant high-dose interferon-α (HDI) enrolled nearly 2000 patients, and established HDI as the standard of care in adjuvant therapy for patients with resected high-risk melanoma. Herein, the authors present an updated analysis of these 4 trials. METHODS: Survival and disease status were updated in September 2016. These data represent a median follow-up of 17.9 years for the E1684 trial, 12.2 years for the E1690 trial, 16.0 years for the E1694 trial, and 16.5 years for the E2696 trial. RESULTS: The current analysis confirmed the benefit to recurrence-free survival (RFS) of HDI in the E1684 trial at a median follow-up of 17.9 years. The RFS benefit in the E1694 trial remained evident at a median follow-up of 16 years. Furthermore, the results of the current study confirmed the RFS benefit of adjuvant HDI compared with observation in a pooled analysis of the E1684 and E1690 trials. No overall survival benefit was apparent in this pooled analysis. Updated results for the E1690 and E2696 trials did not differ from those previously reported. In addition, to the authors' knowledge, the current study is the first to report a significant difference in melanoma-specific survival (MSS) between patients treated with HDI compared with the ganglioside GM2/keyhole limpet hemocyanin (GMK) vaccine in the E1694 trial. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with resected high-risk melanoma, adjuvant HDI demonstrated improved RFS in the E1684 and E1694 trials, and improved MSS in a pooled analysis of HDI in the E1694 trial. To the authors' knowledge, these findings represent the most mature level of evidence for the benefit of HDI with respect to RFS and MSS. HDI is the only approved adjuvant treatment for which there are data available in patients with resected stage IIB/IIC melanoma, and remains a reasonable treatment option in this population.

Clinicopathologic, misdiagnosis, and survival differences between clinically amelanotic melanomas and pigmented melanomas.

BACKGROUND: Amelanotic malignant melanoma (AMM) is challenging to diagnose. Clinical risk factors for AMM are not well defined. OBJECTIVE: To investigate clinicopathologic, misdiagnosis, and survival differences between patients with AMM and those with pigmented malignant melanoma (PMM). METHODS: A cross-sectional retrospective medical record review at a tertiary academic medical center. RESULTS: A total of 933 patients with melanoma with known presenting tumor color were identified (342 with AMM vs 591 with PMM). AMM was associated with older age, history of nonmelanoma skin cancer, and red hair, whereas AMM was inversely associated with a family history of melanoma, more than 50 nevi, and a history of dysplastic nevi. Compared with PMM, AMM was more likely to be located on the head and/or neck, had more aggressive pathologic features (greater Breslow depth and/or mitoses, ulceration, nodular subtype), and was less likely to be associated with a precursor nevus or regression. Finally, patients with AMM were more likely to be misdiagnosed than were patients with PMM (25% vs 12% clinically and 12% vs 7% pathologically), and they had poorer melanoma-specific survival (5-year overall survival rate, 0.77 [95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.82] vs 0.84 [95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.87]). LIMITATIONS: Retrospective study design, single-institutional study. CONCLUSION: Greater clinician awareness, lower biopsy thresholds, and increased patient education may be useful to enhance AMM detection in patients with certain characteristics.

Association of Screening and Treatment With Breast Cancer Mortality by Molecular Subtype in US Women, 2000-2012.

Importance: Given recent advances in screening mammography and adjuvant therapy (treatment), quantifying their separate and combined effects on US breast cancer mortality reductions by molecular subtype could guide future decisions to reduce disease burden. Objective: To evaluate the contributions associated with screening and treatment to breast cancer mortality reductions by molecular subtype based on estrogen-receptor (ER) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (ERBB2, formerly HER2 or HER2/neu). Design, Setting, and Participants: Six Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Network (CISNET) models simulated US breast cancer mortality from 2000 to 2012 using national data on plain-film and digital mammography patterns and performance, dissemination and efficacy of ER/ERBB2-specific treatment, and competing mortality. Multiple US birth cohorts were simulated. Exposures: Screening mammography and treatment. Main Outcomes and Measures: The models compared age-adjusted, overall, and ER/ERBB2-specific breast cancer mortality rates from 2000 to 2012 for women aged 30 to 79 years relative to the estimated mortality rate in the absence of screening and treatment (baseline rate); mortality reductions were apportioned to screening and treatment. Results: In 2000, the estimated reduction in overall breast cancer mortality rate was 37% (model range, 27%-42%) relative to the estimated baseline rate in 2000 of 64 deaths (model range, 56-73) per 100 000 women: 44% (model range, 35%-60%) of this reduction was associated with screening and 56% (model range, 40%-65%) with treatment. In 2012, the estimated reduction in overall breast cancer mortality rate was 49% (model range, 39%-58%) relative to the estimated baseline rate in 2012 of 63 deaths (model range, 54-73) per 100 000 women: 37% (model range, 26%-51%) of this reduction was associated with screening and 63% (model range, 49%-74%) with treatment. Of the 63% associated with treatment, 31% (model range, 22%-37%) was associated with chemotherapy, 27% (model range, 18%-36%) with hormone therapy, and 4% (model range, 1%-6%) with trastuzumab. The estimated relative contributions associated with screening vs treatment varied by molecular subtype: for ER+/ERBB2-, 36% (model range, 24%-50%) vs 64% (model range, 50%-76%); for ER+/ERBB2+, 31% (model range, 23%-41%) vs 69% (model range, 59%-77%); for ER-/ERBB2+, 40% (model range, 34%-47%) vs 60% (model range, 53%-66%); and for ER-/ERBB2-, 48% (model range, 38%-57%) vs 52% (model range, 44%-62%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this simulation modeling study that projected trends in breast cancer mortality rates among US women, decreases in overall breast cancer mortality from 2000 to 2012 were associated with advances in screening and in adjuvant therapy, although the associations varied by breast cancer molecular subtype.

Collaborative Modeling of the Benefits and Harms Associated With Different U.S. Breast Cancer Screening Strategies.

BACKGROUND: Controversy persists about optimal mammography screening strategies. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate screening outcomes, taking into account advances in mammography and treatment of breast cancer. DESIGN: Collaboration of 6 simulation models using national data on incidence, digital mammography performance, treatment effects, and other-cause mortality. SETTING: United States. PATIENTS: Average-risk U.S. female population and subgroups with varying risk, breast density, or comorbidity. INTERVENTION: Eight strategies differing by age at which screening starts (40, 45, or 50 years) and screening interval (annual, biennial, and hybrid [annual for women in their 40s and biennial thereafter]). All strategies assumed 100% adherence and stopped at age 74 years. MEASUREMENTS: Benefits (breast cancer-specific mortality reduction, breast cancer deaths averted, life-years, and quality-adjusted life-years); number of mammograms used; harms (false-positive results, benign biopsies, and overdiagnosis); and ratios of harms (or use) and benefits (efficiency) per 1000 screens. RESULTS: Biennial strategies were consistently the most efficient for average-risk women. Biennial screening from age 50 to 74 years avoided a median of 7 breast cancer deaths versus no screening; annual screening from age 40 to 74 years avoided an additional 3 deaths, but yielded 1988 more false-positive results and 11 more overdiagnoses per 1000 women screened. Annual screening from age 50 to 74 years was inefficient (similar benefits, but more harms than other strategies). For groups with a 2- to 4-fold increased risk, annual screening from age 40 years had similar harms and benefits as screening average-risk women biennially from 50 to 74 years. For groups with moderate or severe comorbidity, screening could stop at age 66 to 68 years. LIMITATION: Other imaging technologies, polygenic risk, and nonadherence were not considered. CONCLUSION: Biennial screening for breast cancer is efficient for average-risk populations. Decisions about starting ages and intervals will depend on population characteristics and the decision makers' weight given to the harms and benefits of screening. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.

Surrogate endpoints for overall survival in metastatic melanoma: a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Recent phase 3 trials have shown an overall survival benefit in metastatic melanoma. We aimed to assess whether progression-free survival (PFS) could be regarded as a reliable surrogate for overall survival through a meta-analysis of randomised trials. METHODS: We systematically reviewed randomised trials comparing treatment regimens in metastatic melanoma that included dacarbazine as the control arm, and which reported both PFS and overall survival with a standard hazard ratio (HR). We correlated HRs for overall survival and PFS, weighted by sample size or by precision of the HR estimate, assuming fixed and random effects. We did sensitivity analyses according to presence of crossover, trial size, and dacarbazine dose. FINDINGS: After screening 1649 reports and meeting abstracts published before Sept 8, 2013, we identified 12 eligible randomised trials that enrolled 4416 patients with metastatic melanoma. Irrespective of weighting strategy, we noted a strong correlation between the treatment effects for PFS and overall survival, which seemed independent of treatment type. Pearson correlation coefficients were 0·71 (95% CI 0·29-0·90) with a random-effects assumption, 0·85 (0·59-0·95) with a fixed-effects assumption, and 0·89 (0·68-0·97) with sample-size weighting. For nine trials without crossover, the correlation coefficient was 0·96 (0·81-0·99), which decreased to 0·93 (0·74-0·98) when two additional trials with less than 50% crossover were included. Inclusion of mature follow-up data after at least 50% crossover (in vemurafenib and dabrafenib phase 3 trials) weakened the PFS to overall survival correlation (0·55, 0·03-0·84). Inclusion of trials with no or little crossover with the random-effects assumption yielded a conservative statement of the PFS to overall survival correlation of 0·85 (0·51-0·96). INTERPRETATION: PFS can be regarded as a robust surrogate for overall survival in dacarbazine-controlled randomised trials of metastatic melanoma; we postulate that this association will hold as treatment standards evolve and are adopted as the control arm in future trials. FUNDING: None.

HIV-1 envelope replication and α4ß7 utilization among newly infected subjects and their corresponding heterosexual partners.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies suggest that active selection limits the number of HIV-1 variants acquired by a newly infected individual from the diverse variants circulating in the transmitting partner. We compared HIV-1 envelopes from 9 newly infected subjects and their linked transmitting partner to explore potential mechanisms for selection. RESULTS: Recipient virus envelopes had significant genotypic differences compared to those present in the transmitting partner. Recombinant viruses incorporating pools of recipient and transmitter envelopes showed no significant difference in their sensitivity to receptor and fusion inhibitors, suggesting they had relatively similar entry capacity in the presence of low CD4 and CCR5 levels. Aggregate results in primary cells from up to 4 different blood or skin donors showed that viruses with envelopes from the transmitting partner as compared to recipient envelopes replicated more efficiently in CD4+ T cells, monocyte derived dendritic cell (MDDC) - CD4+ T cell co-cultures, Langerhans cells (LCs) - CD4+ T cell co-cultures and CD4+ T cells expressing high levels of the gut homing receptor, α4ß7, and demonstrated greater binding to α4ß7 high / CD8+ T cells. These transmitter versus recipient envelope virus phenotypic differences, however, were not always consistent among the primary cells from all the different blood or skin donation volunteers. CONCLUSION: Although genotypically unique variants are present in newly infected individuals compared to the diverse swarm circulating in the chronically infected transmitting partner, replication in potential early target cells and receptor utilization either do not completely dictate this genetic selection, or these potential transmission phenotypes are lost very soon after HIV-1 acquisition.

Pediatric melanoma: analysis of an international registry.

BACKGROUND: The management of pediatric melanoma (PM) has largely been extrapolated from adult data. However, the behavior of PM appears to differ from its adult counterparts. Therefore, an international PM registry was created and analyzed. METHODS: Twelve institutions contributed deidentified clinicopathologic and outcome data for patients diagnosed with PM from 1953 through 2008. RESULTS: Overall survival (OS) data were reported for 365 patients with invasive PM who had adequate follow-up data. The mean age of the patients was 16 years (range 1 year-21 years). The 10-year OS rate, 80.6%, tended to vary by patient age: 100% for those aged birth to 10 years, 69.7% for those aged > 10 years to 15 years, and 79.5% for those aged > 15 years to 20 years (P = .147). Patients with melanomas measuring ≤ 1 mm had a favorable prognosis (10-year OS rate of 97%), whereas survival was lower but similar for patients with melanomas measuring > 1 mm to 2 mm, > 2 mm to 4 mm, and > 4 mm (70%, 78%, and 80%, respectively; P = .0077). Ulceration and lymph node metastasis were found to be correlated with worse survival (P = .022 and P = .017, respectively). The 10-year OS rate was 94.1% for patients with American Joint Committee on Cancer stage I disease, 79.6% for those with stage II disease, and 77.1% for patients with stage III disease (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Tumor thickness, ulceration, lymph node status, and stage were found to be significant predictors of survival in patients with PM, similar to adult melanoma. There is a trend toward increased survival in children aged ≤ 10 years versus adolescents aged > 10 years. Further analyses are needed to probe for potential biological and behavioral differences in pediatric versus adult melanoma.

Tipping the balance of benefits and harms to favor screening mammography starting at age 40 years: a comparative modeling study of risk.

BACKGROUND: Timing of initiation of screening for breast cancer is controversial in the United States. OBJECTIVE: To determine the threshold relative risk (RR) at which the harm-benefit ratio of screening women aged 40 to 49 years equals that of biennial screening for women aged 50 to 74 years. DESIGN: Comparative modeling study. DATA SOURCES: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program, Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium, and medical literature. TARGET POPULATION: A contemporary cohort of women eligible for routine screening. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Societal. INTERVENTION: Mammography screening starting at age 40 versus 50 years with different screening methods (film, digital) and screening intervals (annual, biennial). BENEFITS: life-years gained, breast cancer deaths averted; harms: false-positive mammography findings; harm-benefit ratios: false-positive findings/life-years gained, false-positive findings/deaths averted. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Screening average-risk women aged 50 to 74 years biennially yields the same false-positive findings/life-years gained as biennial screening with digital mammography starting at age 40 years for women with a 2-fold increased risk above average (median threshold RR, 1.9 [range across models, 1.5 to 4.4]). The threshold RRs are higher for annual screening with digital mammography (median, 4.3 [range, 3.3 to 10]) and when false-positive findings/deaths averted is used as an outcome measure instead of false-positive findings/life-years gained. The harm-benefit ratio for film mammography is more favorable than for digital mammography because film has a lower false-positive rate. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: The threshold RRs changed slightly when a more comprehensive measure of harm was used and were relatively insensitive to lower adherence assumptions. LIMITATION: Risk was assumed to influence onset of disease without influencing screening performance. CONCLUSION: Women aged 40 to 49 years with a 2-fold increased risk have similar harm-benefit ratios for biennial screening mammography as average-risk women aged 50 to 74 years. Threshold RRs required for favorable harm-benefit ratios vary by screening method, interval, and outcome measure. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Cancer Institute.

Granulocyte-Macrophage Colony-Stimulating Factor Influence on Soluble and Membrane-Bound ICOS in Combination with Immune Checkpoint Blockade.

With the successful development of immune checkpoint blockade, there remains the continued need to improve efficacy and decrease toxicities. The addition of granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF) to ipilimumab has previously demonstrated both an improvement in efficacy and decrease in the incidence of high-grade adverse events. ICOS+CD4+ or ICOS+CD8+ peripheral blood T cells are significantly greater in the patients treated with ipilimumab plus GM-CSF than in the patients treated with ipilimumab alone. To better understand the effects of GM-CSF on inducible T-cell costimulator (ICOS) and clinical outcomes, the relative roles of identified soluble ICOS and membrane-bound ICOS were evaluated. The ICOS splice variant was secreted and found to have immunologic suppressive effects. Changes in soluble ICOS splice variant levels in treated patients correlated with clinical outcomes. GM-CSF enhanced membrane-bound ICOS in an IL12-dependent manner but did not increase soluble ICOS levels. Whereas soluble ICOS plays a role in immune suppression, GM-CSF efficacy involves increasing membrane-bound ICOS and induction of dendritic cell development. Thus, soluble ICOS splice variants may be used as a biomarker for GM-CSF and immune checkpoint blockade-based therapies.

Granulomatous and Sarcoid-like Immune-Related Adverse Events following CTLA4 and PD1 Blockade Adjuvant Therapy of Melanoma: A Combined Analysis of ECOG-ACRIN E1609 and SWOG S1404 Phase III Trials and a Literature Review.

BACKGROUND: Treatment with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) has been linked to granulomatous and sarcoid-like lesions (GSLs) affecting different organs. This study sought to evaluate GSL incidence in patients with high-risk melanoma treated with cytotoxic T-lymphocyte antigen 4 (CTLA4) or programmed cell death 1 (PD1) blockade adjuvant therapy in two clinical trials: ECOG-ACRIN E1609 and SWOG S1404. Descriptions and GSL severity ratings were recorded. METHODS: Data were collected from ECOG-ACRIN E1609 and SWOG S1404. Descriptive statistics along with GSL severity grades were reported. Additionally, a literature review for such cases was summarized. RESULTS: A total of 11 GSL cases were reported among 2878 patients treated with either ICI or with High-Dose Interferon Alfa-2b (HDI) in ECOG-ACRIN E1609 and SWOG S1404 trials. Cases were numerically more commonly reported with ipi10, followed by pembrolizumab, ipi3, and HDI, respectively. Most of the cases were grade III. Further, organs involved included lung, mediastinal lymph nodes, skin and subcutaneous tissue, and eye. Furthermore, a summary of 62 reports in the literature was described. CONCLUSIONS: GSLs following anti-CTLA4 and anti-PD1 antibody therapy in patients with melanoma were reported unusually. Reported cases ranged in grade from I to III and appeared manageable. Careful attention to these events and their reporting will be essential to better guide practice and management guidelines.

Population simulation modeling of disparities in US breast cancer mortality.

BACKGROUND: Populations of African American or Black women have persistently higher breast cancer mortality than the overall US population, despite having slightly lower age-adjusted incidence. METHODS: Three Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network simulation teams modeled cancer mortality disparities between Black female populations and the overall US population. Model inputs used racial group-specific data from clinical trials, national registries, nationally representative surveys, and observational studies. Analyses began with cancer mortality in the overall population and sequentially replaced parameters for Black populations to quantify the percentage of modeled breast cancer morality disparities attributable to differences in demographics, incidence, access to screening and treatment, and variation in tumor biology and response to therapy. RESULTS: Results were similar across the 3 models. In 2019, racial differences in incidence and competing mortality accounted for a net ‒1% of mortality disparities, while tumor subtype and stage distributions accounted for a mean of 20% (range across models = 13%-24%), and screening accounted for a mean of 3% (range = 3%-4%) of the modeled mortality disparities. Treatment parameters accounted for the majority of modeled mortality disparities: mean = 17% (range = 16%-19%) for treatment initiation and mean = 61% (range = 57%-63%) for real-world effectiveness. CONCLUSION: Our model results suggest that changes in policies that target improvements in treatment access could increase breast cancer equity. The findings also highlight that efforts must extend beyond policies targeting equity in treatment initiation to include high-quality treatment completion. This research will facilitate future modeling to test the effects of different specific policy changes on mortality disparities.

Combination Dabrafenib and Trametinib Versus Combination Nivolumab and Ipilimumab for Patients With Advanced BRAF-Mutant Melanoma: The DREAMseq Trial-ECOG-ACRIN EA6134.

PURPOSE: Combination programmed cell death protein 1/cytotoxic T-cell lymphocyte-4-blockade and dual BRAF/MEK inhibition have each shown significant clinical benefit in patients with BRAFV600-mutant metastatic melanoma, leading to broad regulatory approval. Little prospective data exist to guide the choice of either initial therapy or treatment sequence in this population. This study was conducted to determine which initial treatment or treatment sequence produced the best efficacy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In a phase III trial, patients with treatment-naive BRAFV600-mutant metastatic melanoma were randomly assigned to receive either combination nivolumab/ipilimumab (arm A) or dabrafenib/trametinib (arm B) in step 1, and at disease progression were enrolled in step 2 to receive the alternate therapy, dabrafenib/trametinib (arm C) or nivolumab/ipilimumab (arm D). The primary end point was 2-year overall survival (OS). Secondary end points were 3-year OS, objective response rate, response duration, progression-free survival, crossover feasibility, and safety. RESULTS: A total of 265 patients were enrolled, with 73 going onto step 2 (27 in arm C and 46 in arm D). The study was stopped early by the independent Data Safety Monitoring Committee because of a clinically significant end point being achieved. The 2-year OS for those starting on arm A was 71.8% (95% CI, 62.5 to 79.1) and arm B 51.5% (95% CI, 41.7 to 60.4; log-rank P = .010). Step 1 progression-free survival favored arm A (P = .054). Objective response rates were arm A: 46.0%; arm B: 43.0%; arm C: 47.8%; and arm D: 29.6%. Median duration of response was not reached for arm A and 12.7 months for arm B (P < .001). Crossover occurred in 52% of patients with documented disease progression. Grade ≥ 3 toxicities occurred with similar frequency between arms, and regimen toxicity profiles were as anticipated. CONCLUSION: Combination nivolumab/ipilimumab followed by BRAF and MEK inhibitor therapy, if necessary, should be the preferred treatment sequence for a large majority of patients.

Pathologic characteristics of second breast cancers after breast conservation for ductal carcinoma in situ.

BACKGROUND: The number of women diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is increasing. Although many eventually develop a second breast cancer (SBC), little is known about the characteristics of SBCs. The authors described the characteristics of SBC and examined associations between the pathologic features of SBC and index DCIS cases. METHODS: Women were identified in the National Comprehensive Cancer Network Outcomes Database who were diagnosed with DCIS from 1997 to 2008 and underwent lumpectomy and who subsequently developed SBC (including DCIS or invasive disease that occurred in the ipsilateral or contralateral breast). The Fisher exact test and the Spearman test were used to examine associations between the pathologic characteristics of SBC and index DCIS cases. RESULTS: Among 2636 women who underwent lumpectomy for DCIS, 150 (5.7%) experienced an SBC after a median of 55.5 months of follow-up. Of these 150 women, 105 (70%) received adjuvant radiotherapy, and 50 (33.3%) received tamoxifen for their index DCIS. SBCs were ipsilateral in 54.7% of women and invasive in 50.7% of women. Among the index DCIS cases, 60.6% were estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, and 54% were high grade, whereas 77.5% of SBCs were ER-positive, and 48.2% were high grade. Tumor grade (P = .003) and ER status (P = .02) were associated significantly between index DCIS and SBC, whereas tumor size was not (P = .87). CONCLUSIONS: After breast conservation for DCIS, SBC in either breast exhibited pathologic characteristics similar to the index DCIS, suggesting that women with DCIS may be at risk for developing subsequent breast cancers of a similar phenotype.