Colorectal cancer screening at age 45 years in Israel: Cost-effectiveness and global implications.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence at ages <50 years is increasing worldwide. Screening initiation was lowered to 45 years in the United States. The cost-effectiveness of initiating CRC screening at 45 years in Israel was assessed with the aim of informing national policy and addressing internationally relevant questions. METHODS: A validated CRC screening model was calibrated to Israeli data and examined annual fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) or colonoscopy every 10 years from 45 to 74 years (FIT45-74 or Colo45-74) versus from 50 to 74 years (FIT50-74 or Colo50-74). The addition of a fourth colonoscopy at 75 years was explored, subanalyses were performed by sex/ethnicity, and resource demands were estimated. RESULTS: FIT50-74 and Colo50-74 reduced CRC incidence by 57% and 70% and mortality by 70% and 77%, respectively, versus no screening, with greater absolute impact in Jews/Other versus Arabs but comparable relative impact. FIT45-74 further reduced CRC incidence and mortality by an absolute 3% and 2%, respectively. With Colo45-74 versus Colo50-74, CRC cases and deaths increased slightly as three colonoscopies per lifetime shifted to 5 years earlier but mean quality-adjusted life-years gained (QALYGs) per person increased. FIT45-74 and Colo45-74 cost 23,800-53,900 new Israeli shekels (NIS)/QALYG and 110,600-162,700 NIS/QALYG, with the lowest and highest values among Jewish/Other men and Arab women, respectively. A fourth lifetime colonoscopy cost 48,700 NIS/QALYG. Lowering FIT initiation to 45 years with modest participation required 19,300 additional colonoscopies in the first 3 years. CONCLUSIONS: Beginning CRC screening at 45 years in Israel is projected to yield modest clinical benefits at acceptable costs per QALYG. Despite different estimates by sex/ethnicity, a uniform national policy is favored. These findings can inform Israeli guidelines and serve as a case study internationally.

Development and Validation of a Colorectal Cancer Prediction Model: A Nationwide Cohort-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: Early diagnosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) is critical to increasing survival rates. Computerized risk prediction models hold great promise for identifying individuals at high risk for CRC. In order to utilize such models effectively in a population-wide screening setting, development and validation should be based on cohorts that are similar to the target population. AIM: Establish a risk prediction model for CRC diagnosis based on electronic health records (EHR) from subjects eligible for CRC screening. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study utilizing the EHR data of Clalit Health Services (CHS). The study includes CHS members aged 50-74 who were eligible for CRC screening from January 2013 to January 2019. The model was trained to predict receiving a CRC diagnosis within 2 years of the index date. Approximately 20,000 EHR demographic and clinical features were considered. RESULTS: The study includes 2935 subjects with CRC diagnosis, and 1,133,457 subjects without CRC diagnosis. Incidence values of CRC among subjects in the top 1% risk scores were higher than baseline (2.3% vs 0.3%; lift 8.38; P value < 0.001). Cumulative event probabilities increased with higher model scores. Model-based risk stratification among subjects with a positive FOBT, identified subjects with more than twice the risk for CRC compared to FOBT alone. CONCLUSIONS: We developed an individualized risk prediction model for CRC that can be utilized as a complementary decision support tool for healthcare providers to precisely identify subjects at high risk for CRC and refer them for confirmatory testing.

Comparison of Four Tests for the Diagnosis of Helicobacter pylori Infection.

BACKGROUND: Due to lower operational costs, health maintenance organizations (HMOs) may prioritize Helicobacter pylori stool antigen testing (HpStAg) for the non-invasive diagnosis of H. pylori infection over 13C-urea breath tests (13C-UBTs). The aim of our study was to compare the accuracy of the diagnostic tests for H. pylori. METHODS: We performed histology, rapid urease test (RUT), 13C-UBT and HpStAg on consecutive patients referred for gastroscopy. Monoclonal stool antigen test was performed using the LIAISON Meridian chemiluminescent immunoassay. Histology was examined with hematoxylin and eosin, and additional stains were performed at the pathologist's discretion. For the assessment of 13C-UBT, we compared concordant histology and RUT. HpStAg was compared to the concordant results of two of the three remaining tests. RESULTS: 103 patients were included (36 males (35.0%), age 50.1 ± 18.4 years). The indication for gastroscopy was dyspepsia in 63 (61.2%). Agreement between RUT and histology was 95.9%. For 13C-UBT and HpStAg, respectively, H. pylori positivity was 30% (30/100) and 27.16% (22/81); sensitivity was 97% and 70%; specificity was 100% and 94.4%; accuracy was 98% and 86%; positive predictive value (PPV) was 100% and 86.4%; negative predictive value (NPV) was 93% and 86%. No demographic, clinical, or endoscopic predictors of HpStAg accuracy were identified using logistic regression. CONCLUSIONS: 13C-UBT performs better than HpStAg at our institution. When interpreting results, clinicians should consider test limitations.

A POT1 Founder Variant Associated with Early Onset Recurrent Melanoma and Various Solid Malignancies.

POT1 (Protection of Telomeres 1) is a key component of the six-membered shelterin complex that plays a critical role in telomere protection and length regulation. Germline variants in the POT1 gene have been implicated in predisposition to cancer, primarily to melanoma and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). We report the identification of POT1 p.(I78T), previously ranked with conflicting interpretations of pathogenicity, as a founder pathogenic variant among Ashkenazi Jews (AJs) and describe its unique clinical landscape. A directed database search was conducted for individuals referred for genetic counselling from 2018 to 2023. Demographic, clinical, genetic, and pathological data were collected and analyzed. Eleven carriers, 25 to 67 years old, from ten apparently unrelated families were identified. Carriers had a total of 30 primary malignancies (range 1-6); nine carriers (82%) had recurrent melanoma between the ages of 25 and 63 years, three carriers (27%) had desmoid tumors, three (27%) had papillary thyroid cancer (PTC), and five women (63% of female carriers) had breast cancer between the ages of 44 and 67 years. Additional tumors included CLL; sarcomas; endocrine tumors; prostate, urinary, and colorectal cancers; and colonic polyps. A review of a local exome database yielded an allelic frequency of the variant of 0.06% among all ethnicities and of 0.25% in AJs. A shared haplotype was found in all carriers tested. POT1 p.(I78T) is a founder disease-causing variant associated with early-onset melanoma and additional various solid malignancies with a high tumor burden. We advocate testing for this variant in high-risk patients of AJ descent. The inclusion of POT1 in germline panels for various types of cancer is warranted.

Discordant effects of Janus kinases inhibition ex-vivo on inflammatory responses in colonic compared to ileal mucosa.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitors are used for treating inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD). We aimed to identify molecular effects of JAK inhibition in human intestinal mucosa, considering IBD location and phenotype. METHODS: Colonic and ileal explants from patients with ulcerative colitis (UC), Crohn's disease (CD), and non-IBD controls (NC) were assessed for phosphorylated signal transducers and activators of transcription (p-STAT) levels and Inflammatory genes expression panel in response to ex-vivo JAK inhibitor (tofacitinib). Cytokine production by lamina propria lymphocytes in response to tofacitinib was assessed. Human intestinal organoids were used to investigate JAK inhibitors' effects on iNOS expression. RESULTS: Explants were collected from 68 patients (UC=20; CD=20; NC=28). p-STAT1\3\5 inhibition rates varied, being higher in colonic compared to ileal explants. p-STAT1\3 inhibition rates negatively correlated with CRP levels. While significant alterations in 120 of 255 inflammatory genes were observed in colonic explants, only 30 were observed in ileal NC explants. In colonic explants from UC, significant alterations were observed in 5 genes, including NOS2. JAK inhibition significantly decreased Th1\Th2\Th17-related cytokine production from lamina propria lymphocytes. Various JAK inhibitors reduced IFN-γ-induced increase in iNOS expression in organoids. CONCLUSIONS: Site-specific anti-inflammatory effect of JAK inhibition by tofacitinib was noticed, whereby the colon was more robustly affected than the ileum. Ex-vivo response to tofacitinib is individual. JAK inhibition may attenuate inflammation by decreasing iNOS expression. Ex-vivo mucosal platforms may be a valuable resource for studying personalized drug effects in patients with IBD.