Identification of neurological complications in childhood influenza: a random forest model.

BACKGROUND: Among the neurological complications of influenza in children, the most severe is acute necrotizing encephalopathy (ANE), with a high mortality rate and neurological sequelae. ANE is characterized by rapid progression to death within 1-2 days from onset. However, the knowledge about the early diagnosis of ANE is limited, which is often misdiagnosed as simple seizures/convulsions or mild acute influenza-associated encephalopathy (IAE). OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate an early prediction model to discriminate the ANE from two common neurological complications, seizures/convulsions and mild IAE in children with influenza. METHODS: This retrospective case-control study included patients with ANE (median age 3.8 (2.3,5.4) years), seizures/convulsions alone (median age 2.6 (1.7,4.3) years), or mild IAE (median age 2.8 (1.5,6.1) years) at a tertiary pediatric medical center in China between November 2012 to January 2020. The random forest algorithm was used to screen the characteristics and construct a prediction model. RESULTS: Of the 433 patients, 278 (64.2%) had seizures/convulsions alone, 106 (24.5%) had mild IAE, and 49 (11.3%) had ANE. The discrimination performance of the model was satisfactory, with an accuracy above 0.80 from both model development (84.2%) and internal validation (88.2%). Seizures/convulsions were less likely to be wrongly classified (3.7%, 2/54), but mild IAE (22.7%, 5/22) was prone to be misdiagnosed as seizures/convulsions, and a small proportion (4.5%, 1/22) of them was prone to be misdiagnosed as ANE. Of the children with ANE, 22.2% (2/9) were misdiagnosed as mild IAE, and none were misdiagnosed as seizures/convulsions. CONCLUSION: This model can distinguish the ANE from seizures/convulsions with high accuracy and from mild IAE close to 80% accuracy, providing valuable information for the early management of children with influenza.

Weight progression and adherence to weight gain target in women with vs. without gestational diabetes: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Weight management has been an important component of the service in obstetric care offered to pregnant women. Current gestational weight gain recommendations were primarily for the general obstetric population, raising concern about the applicability to women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). We aimed to assess the difference in weight progression and adherence to the recommended gestational weight gain targets between women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and women with normal glucose tolerance (NGT). METHODS: This was a hospital-based retrospective study of 56,616 pregnant women (9,430 GDM women and 47,186 NGT women) from Guangzhou between 2017 and 2021. The average change in weight progression was estimated based on serial weight measurements throughout pregnancy, using a mixed effects model with a random intercept to account for repeated measures of the same individual. RESULTS: Women with GDM gained less weight (12.07 [SD 5.20] kg) than women with NGT (14.04 [SD 5.04] kg) throughout pregnancy. Before OGTT, a small difference was observed in the average change in weight progression between the two groups (GDM, 0.44 kg/week vs. NGT, 0.45 kg/week, p < 0.001), however, this gap widened significantly after the test (0.34 vs. 0.50 kg/week, p < 0.001). GDM individuals were identified with an approximately 4-fold increased proportion of insufficient weight gain (41.1% vs. 10.4%) and a 2-fold decreased proportion of excessive weight gain (22.6% vs. 54.2%) compared to NGT individuals. These results were consistently observed across different BMI categories, including underweight (insufficient: 52.7% vs. 19.9%; excessive: 15.6% vs. 35.3%), normal weight (insufficient 38.2% vs. 7.4%; excessive: 22.2% vs. 57.3%), and overweight/obese (insufficient: 43.1% vs. 9.8%; excessive: 30.1% vs. 68.8%). CONCLUSION: Weight progression varied significantly between GDM and NGT individuals, resulting in a substantial difference in identifying insufficient and excessive weight gain between the two groups under current gestational weight gain guidelines.

Associations between gestational weight gain and adverse neonatal outcomes: a comparison between the US and the Chinese guidelines in Chinese women with twin pregnancies.

BACKGROUND: Appropriate gestational weight gain (GWG) is essential for maternal and fetal health. For twin pregnancies among Caucasian women, the Institute of Medicine (IOM) guidelines can be used to monitor and guide GWG. We aimed to externally validate and compare the IOM guidelines and the recently released guidelines for Chinese women with twin pregnancies regarding the applicability of their recommendations on total GWG (TGWG). METHOD: A retrospective cohort study of 1534 women who were aged 18-45 years and gave birth to twins at ≥ 26 gestational weeks between October 2016 and June 2020 was conducted in Guangzhou, China. Women's TGWG was categorized into inadequate, optimal, and excess per the IOM and the Chinese guidelines. Multivariable generalized estimating equations logistic regression was used to estimate the risk associations between TGWG categories and adverse neonatal outcomes. Cohen's Kappa coefficient was calculated to evaluate the agreement between the IOM and the Chinese guidelines. RESULTS: Defined by either the IOM or the Chinese guidelines, women with inadequate TGWG, compared with those with optimal TGWG, demonstrated higher risks of small-for-gestational-age birth and neonatal jaundice, while women with excess TGWG had a higher risk of delivering large-for-gestational-age infants. The agreement between the two guidelines was relatively high (Kappa coefficient = 0.721). Compared with those in the optimal TGWG group by both sets of the guidelines, women classified into the optimal group by the Chinese guidelines but into the inadequate group by the IOM guidelines (n = 214) demonstrated a statistically non-significant increase in the risk of all the adverse neonatal outcomes combined. CONCLUSIONS: The IOM and the Chinese guidelines are both applicable to Chinese women with twin pregnancies.

The effects of first-trimester subchorionic hematoma on pregnancy outcomes: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although first-trimester subchorionic hematoma (SCH) always concerns expectant parents, its clinical significance remains controversial. This study aimed to examine the relationship between SCH and its association with subsequent miscarriage and other perinatal outcomes in singleton pregnancies. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study including 43,660 women who underwent routine prenatal care since the first trimester and then were followed up for maternal and neonatal outcomes. SCH was detected in the first-trimester ultrasound examinations. Robust Poisson regression was used to estimate adjusted risk associations of SCH with maternal and neonatal outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 815 (1.87%) SCH cases were detected in the first-trimester ultrasound examinations. The rate of miscarriage was statistically significantly higher in women with SCH than without [35.21% vs. 23.92%, P < 0.01; adjusted relative risk (RR):1.44, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.31-1.58]. Subgroup analysis of women with SCH showed a clear trend that the earlier SCH occurred, the higher the risk of miscarriage was [adjusted RR (95% CI) for onset at the gestational weeks of 8-9, 6-7, and < 6 vs. ≥ 10: 1.30 (0.69-2.46), 2.33 (1.28-4.23), and 4.18 (2.30-7.58), respectively; Ptrend < 0.01]. In addition, women with SCH volume ≥ 1 ml showed higher risk than did those with SCH volume < 1 ml [adjusted RR (95% CI) for 1-4.9 ml, and ≥ 5 ml vs. < 1 ml: 1.36 (1.10-1.68) and 1.56 (1.18-2.07), respectively]. There was no statistically significant difference in the rates of other pregnancy outcomes between women with and without SCH. CONCLUSIONS: First-trimester SCH, particularly when characterized by early presence and large size, might significantly increase the risk of miscarriage. Data from this study suggest no associations between SCH and other maternal and neonatal outcomes.

Prepregnancy body mass index, gestational weight gain, and maternal prepartum inflammation in normal pregnancies: findings from a Chinese cohort.

BACKGROUND: Obesity has been linked to systemic inflammation in population studies. OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations of prepregnancy body mass index (pBMI) and total gestational weight gain (tGWG) with maternal prepartum low-grade inflammation (LGI) and clinically significant inflammation (CSI) defined by serum C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration. METHODS: Five thousand four hundred seventy-six Chinese women with uncomplicated pregnancies and recorded data on pBMI and prepartum body weight were included in this study. Blood samples were drawn before delivery for high-sensitivity CRP assay. Inadequate, optimal, and excessive tGWG were defined using the Institute of Medicine's recommendation. Multivariable Poisson regressions were used to estimate relative risks (RRs) for having prepartum LGI and CSI (defined as CRP concentration 3-10 and > 10 mg/L, respectively) across pBMI and tGWG categories. RESULTS: The mean pBMI, mean tGWG, and median maternal prepartum CRP concentration were 20.4 kg/m2, 13.9 kg, and 3.3 mg/L, respectively. The prevalence of prepartum CSI and LGI was 7.2% and 47.8%. The adjusted RRs (95% confidence interval) of CSI for normal (18.5-24.9 kg/m2) and high (≥ 25 kg/m2) vs. low pBMI (< 18.5 kg/m2) were 1.35 (1.05-1.74) and 2.28 (1.53-3.39), respectively. The respective adjusted RRs of LGI were 1.19 (1.11-1.28) and 1.59 (1.42-1.77). The adjusted RRs for excessive vs. optimal tGWG was 1.18 (0.94-1.48) for CSI and 1.14 (1.07-1.21) for LGI. CONCLUSIONS: Prepregnancy overweight/obesity and excessive tGWG increase the risk of maternal prepartum systemic inflammation, which further highlights the importance of weight management before and during pregnancy.

Weight gain rate in the second and third trimesters and fetal growth in women with gestational diabetes mellitus: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Controversial evidence regarding the applicability of the IOM's gestational weight gain (GWG) targets for women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) has been reported. However, little is known about the weight gain rate (WGR) during the second and third trimesters. Moreover, previous studies failed to assess the effect modification of pre-pregnancy BMI because of the limited sample size. Therefore, we aimed to assess the applicability of the IOM recommendation for the WGR in women with GDM in different pre-pregnancy BMI categories. METHODS: We conducted this retrospective cohort study of 5275 women with GDM who delivered at Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center (GWCMC) between January 2017 and January 2021. Demographic and clinical information was collected from the electronic medical record system. The primary exposure was the WGR in the late second and third trimesters; they were classified as below, within, and above the IOM standard. The outcomes were fetal growth indicators, including large-for-gestational-age (LGA), macrosomia, small-for-gestational-age (SGA), and low birth weight (LBW). The associations between the WGR and such outcomes were assessed using multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: A WGR below the IOM standard was associated with the decreased odds of LGA (adjusted OR 0.74; 95% CI 0.49-1.13) and macrosomia (adjusted OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.32-0.92) for women with GDM in the normal weight BMI class. Such decreases were observed greater for women with GDM in the overweight/obese class, with adjusted ORs of 0.34 (95% CI 0.09-0.88) for LGA and 0.31 (95% CI 0.01-0.84) for macrosomia, respectively. No significant difference was observed in the odds ratios of SGA and LBW across the different WGR groups. CONCLUSION: LGA and macrosomia are the main outcomes associated with the WGR in the late second and third trimesters, and a WGR below the IOM standard was associated with a decreased odds of such outcomes compared with a WGR within the IOM standard in women with GDM in the normal weight and overweight/obese classes. Our findings suggest that a stricter WGR target than that of the current IOM standard may be more beneficial for women with GDM.

Genomic imbalance in euploid pregnancy loss.

PURPOSE: This study aims to investigate genomic imbalance in euploid products of conceptions (POCs) detected by chromosomal microarray analysis (CMA) and its association with clinical characteristics. METHODS: In a retrospective cohort study where all women with singleton pregnancy losses underwent CMA detection of POCs, only patients with euploid POCs were included in the analysis. The clinical features were compared between those with and without a copy number variant (CNV). The pathogenic CNVs and the variant of uncertain significance (VOUS) were analyzed, and the common pathogenic CNVs and uniparental disomy (UPD) were investigated. RESULTS: A total of 610 POCs were detected as chromosomal euploid, of which 176 were euploid with CNVs and 434 were euploid without CNVs. Regarding maternal age, gestational age, and history of pregnancy loss, no significant differences were found between the two groups. Furthermore, 104 pathogenic CNVs were identified in 93 POCs, and the deletion of 8p23.3 was found in 10 subjects. All CNVs greater than 3 Mb and 39.5% of CNVs ranging from 1 to 2 Mb were pathogenic, and only 3 CNVs < 1 Mb were pathogenic. UPD was detected in 12 POCs. CONCLUSION: Besides aneuploidy, 15.24% pregnancy loss might have an association with pathogenic genomic imbalance, and the occurrence of genomic imbalance is not related to clinical characteristics. CNVs greater than 3 Mb in pregnancy losses have a high probability to be pathogenic, and approximately 40% of CNVs ranging from 1 to 2 Mb are pathogenic. The deletion of 8p23.3 is the most common pathogenic CVN in POCs of Chinese-Han women. The clinical significance of UPD in pregnancy loss needs further study.

Comparison of clinical features on admission between coronavirus disease 2019 and influenza a among children: a retrospective study in China.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) share similar symptoms with influenza A (IA), but it is more worthwhile to understand the disparities of the two infections regarding their clinical characteristics on admission. METHODS: A total of 71 age-matched pediatric IA and COVID-19 patient pairs were formed and their clinical data on admission were compared. RESULTS: Fever, cough, nasal congestion and nausea/vomiting were the most common symptoms on admission for both infections but occurred less often in COVID-19. The IA patients were more likely to have lower-than-normal levels of lymphocyte count and percentage and to have higher-than-normal levels of activated partial thromboplastin time, prothrombin time, serum C-reactive protein, and serum procalcitonin, while the COVID-19 patients had higher odds of having lower-than-normal levels of neutrophil count and percentage. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that influenza A is more symptomatic than COVID-19 for children and might be an overall more severe infection at the time of admission.

Modified endometriosis fertility index is more accurate to predict the non-ART pregnancy rate following surgery: a cohort of Chinese women.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether a modified endometriosis fertility index (EFI) can better predict the rate of pregnancy without assisted reproductive technologies (ART) after laparoscopic surgery in infertile Chinese women with endometriosis. METHODS: 564 infertile women undergoing laparoscopy for endometriosis were retrospectively collected from January 2014 to December 2018. 472 patients were used to modify the EFI based on new, optimal cutoffs for its predictor variables. The predictive accuracy of the modified EFI was examined in the other 92 patients. RESULTS: Among the patients for the EFI modification, the multivariable Cox regression results showed that historical factors made more contribution in predicting non-ART pregnancy rate than surgical factors both in modified EFI (C-index: historical factors 0.617 vs surgical factors 0.558) and original EFI (C-index: historical factors 0.600 vs surgical factors 0.549). No significant relationship between the prior pregnancy and post-operative non-ART pregnancy rates was detected by both modified EFI and original EFI (p = 0.530 and 0.802, respectively). To assess the predictive effect of modified EFI, the two versions of modified EFI not only had higher predictive accuracy (C-index: 0.627 and 0.632) for non-ART pregnancy rates than that of the original EFI (C-index: 0.602) in the patients undergoing surgery during 2014-2017, but also higher than that of the original EFI (C-index: 0.638 and 0.612 vs 0.560) in the externally validated population in 2018. CONCLUSIONS: A modified EFI based on population-specific optimal cutoffs and weights might be more suitable for estimating the rate of non-ART pregnancy after laparoscopic surgery in infertile women with endometriosis.

Comparative analysis of clinical features of SARS-CoV-2 and adenovirus infection among children.

BACKGROUND: The new emerging coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) overall shares similar symptoms with other common respiratory viral infections. We aimed in this study to compare COVID-19 and human adenovirus (HAdV) infections in pediatric patients regarding the frequencies of major clinical symptoms and the potential disparities in laboratory and imaging parameters. METHODS: Following a case-control-like design, we built 72 age-matched pediatric COVID-19 and HAdV patient pairs. Their early symptoms and laboratory and imaging characteristics were then retrieved and compared. RESULTS: Fever and cough were the most common symptoms for both infections but were seen more often in HAdV than in COVID-19 patients (92% vs. 66% and 60% vs. 18%, respectively). Compared with COVID-19 patients, children with HAdV infection had statistically significantly higher values of neutrophil count, neutrophil percentage, activated partial thromboplastin time, prothrombin time, lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, procalcitonin but lower values of lymphocyte percentage, total bilirubin, potassium and sodium. Thoracic computed tomography also revealed more anomalies in HAdV patients than in COVID-19 patients (95% vs. 67%). CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 is an overall less symptomatic and less severe infection at admission compared to HAdV respiratory infection in pediatric population.

Treatment of C-section diverticula with hysteroscopic resection in women without childbearing intention: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Diverticulum, one of the long-term sequelae of cesarean section, can cause abnormal uterine bleeding, dysmenorrhea and chronic pelvic pain. Hysteroscopic resection of diverticula is thought to reduce abnormal uterine bleeding and chronic pelvic pain. In this study, we aim to describe the improvement after hysteroscopic resection of cesarean section diverticula (CSD) in women without childbearing intention, and to explore the variables associated with poor prognosis. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of women aged 25-48 with CSD diagnosis by transvaginal ultrasonography (TVS) and hysteroscopy that were enrolled at Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center between June 2017 and December 2018. A total of 124 women met the inclusion criteria and all patients had undergone hysteroscopic resection and accepted a follow-up interview at the 3rd and 6th months postoperatively to record symptom improvement. RESULT: The mean of intraoperative blood loss and operative time of hysteroscopic resection were (12.94 ± 12.63) ml and (33.63 ± 6.87) min in 124 patients. Overall observed improvement rates of CSD symptom were 47.2 and 65.6% in the first 3 and 6 months, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression models revealed that timing of surgery < 14 days was a good prognostic factor associated with both 3-month improvement (OR, 16.59; 95% CI, 2.62-104.90; P = 0.003) and 6-month improvement (OR, 15.51; 95%CI, 1.63-148.00; P = 0.02); Patients with numbers of cesarean section (CS) ≥2 had a lower rate of improvement after 6 months of CSD repair surgery compared with patients who underwent one CS (OR, 8.29; 95%CI, 1.05-65.75; P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: A hysteroscopic repair might be an appropriate method for CSD in women who no childbearing intentions. The timing of surgery and the number of CS seems to be factors influencing the postoperative improvement of CSD.

Outcomes of children with hepatoblastoma who underwent liver resection at a tertiary hospital in China: a retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: To report the outcomes of hepatoblastoma resected in our institution. METHODS: We diagnosed 135 children with hepatoblastoma at our institution between January 2010 and December 2017. Patients who underwent liver resection were included for analysis. However, patients who abandoned treatment after diagnosis were excluded from analysis, but their clinical characteristics were provided in the supplementary material. RESULTS: Forty-two patients abandoned treatment, whereas 93 patients underwent liver resection and were included for statistical analysis. Thirty-six, 23, 3, and 31 patients had PRETEXT stages II, III, IV, and unspecified tumours, respectively. Seven patients had ruptured tumour; 9 had lung metastasis (one patient had portal vein thrombosis concurrently). Sixteen patients underwent primary liver resection; 22, 25, and 30 patients received cisplatin-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy and delayed surgery, preoperative transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and delayed surgery, and a combination of cisplatin-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy, TACE, and delayed surgery, respectively. Forty patients had both PRETEXT and POST-TEXT information available for analysis. Twelve patients were down-staged after preoperative treatment, including 2, 8, and 2 patients from stages IV to III, III to II, and II to I, respectively. Ten patients with unspecified PRETEXT stage were confirmed to have POST-TEXT stages II (n = 8) and I (n = 2) tumours. Seven tumours were associated with positive surgical margins, and 12 patients had microvascular involvement. During a median follow-up period of 30.5 months, 84 patients survived without relapse, 9 experienced tumour recurrence, and 4 died. The 2-year event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) rates were 89.4 ± 3.4%, and 95.2 ± 2.4%, respectively; they were significantly better among patients without metastasis (no metastasis vs metastasis: EFS, 93.5 ± 3.7% vs 46.7 ± 19.0%, adjusted p = 0.002. OS, 97.6 ± 2.4% vs 61.0 ± 18.1%, adjusted p = 0.005), and similar among patients treated with different preoperative strategies (chemotherapy only vs TACE only vs Both: EFS, 94.7 ± 5.1% vs 91.7 ± 5.6% vs 85.6 ± 6.7%, p = 0.542. OS, 94.1 ± 5.7% vs 95.7 ± 4.3% vs 96.7 ± 3.3%, p = 0.845). CONCLUSION: The OS for patients with hepatoblastoma who underwent liver resection was satisfactory. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy and TACE seemed to have a similar effect on OS. However, the abandonment of treatment by patients with hepatoblastoma was common, and may have biased our results.

Evaluation of cerebrospinal fluid and blood parameters finding in early diagnosis and drug therapy of suspected bacterial meningitis in neonates.

BACKGROUND: Whether early lumbar puncture (LP) and blood indicators are suitable as diagnostic criteria and helpful to treatment strategies for newborns remains to be solved. The study was to evaluate the value of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) at the first LP and blood indicators at the similar time in the early diagnosis and the drug therapy of neonatal bacterial meningitis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective observational study of 997 infants with suspected bacterial meningitis between June 2012 and June 2018. CSF and blood parameters were evaluated by three stepwise logistic models to assess their ability: to distinguish bacterial meningitis from nonbacterial meningitis, to distinguish positive CSF culture from negative, and to distinguish Gram-positive bacteria from negative. RESULTS: Of the 997 neonates, 236 (23.67%) were later diagnosed as bacterial meningitis. Of the neonates with meningitis, 54 (22.88%) had positive CSF culture results. And of neonates with positive CSF culture, 27 (50%) had Gram-positive results. One or more CSF indicators were added to the three models. Only blood hypersensitive C-reactive protein and blood lactate dehydrogenase were added to the first model, while no blood parameters was added to the other two models. The areas under the effect-time curves of the three models were 0.91 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.89-0.92, P < 0.001), 0.69 (95% CI: 0.63-0.75, P < 0.001), and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.74-0.94, P < 0.001), respectively. CONCLUSION: LP was irreplaceable predictor of bacterial meningitis, and comprehensive analysis of CSF indicators can predict the offending organism, which enables refinement of therapy.

Risk prediction for estrogen receptor-specific breast cancers in two large prospective cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Few published breast cancer (BC) risk prediction models consider the heterogeneity of predictor variables between estrogen-receptor positive (ER+) and negative (ER-) tumors. Using data from two large cohorts, we examined whether modeling this heterogeneity could improve prediction. METHODS: We built two models, for ER+ (ModelER+) and ER- tumors (ModelER-), respectively, in 281,330 women (51% postmenopausal at recruitment) from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (the agreement between predicted and observed tumor risks) were assessed both internally and externally in 82,319 postmenopausal women from the Women's Health Initiative study. We performed decision curve analysis to compare ModelER+ and the Gail model (ModelGail) regarding their applicability in risk assessment for chemoprevention. RESULTS: Parity, number of full-term pregnancies, age at first full-term pregnancy and body height were only associated with ER+ tumors. Menopausal status, age at menarche and at menopause, hormone replacement therapy, postmenopausal body mass index, and alcohol intake were homogeneously associated with ER+ and ER- tumors. Internal validation yielded a C-statistic of 0.64 for ModelER+ and 0.59 for ModelER-. External validation reduced the C-statistic of ModelER+ (0.59) and ModelGail (0.57). In external evaluation of calibration, ModelER+ outperformed the ModelGail: the former led to a 9% overestimation of the risk of ER+ tumors, while the latter yielded a 22% underestimation of the overall BC risk. Compared with the treat-all strategy, ModelER+ produced equal or higher net benefits irrespective of the benefit-to-harm ratio of chemoprevention, while ModelGail did not produce higher net benefits unless the benefit-to-harm ratio was below 50. The clinical applicability, i.e. the area defined by the net benefit curve and the treat-all and treat-none strategies, was 12.7 × 10- 6 for ModelER+ and 3.0 × 10- 6 for ModelGail. CONCLUSIONS: Modeling heterogeneous epidemiological risk factors might yield little improvement in BC risk prediction. Nevertheless, a model specifically predictive of ER+ tumor risk could be more applicable than an omnibus model in risk assessment for chemoprevention.

Lifetime and baseline alcohol intakes and risk of pancreatic cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study.

Recent evidence suggested a weak relationship between alcohol consumption and pancreatic cancer (PC) risk. In our study, the association between lifetime and baseline alcohol intakes and the risk of PC was evaluated, including the type of alcoholic beverages and potential interaction with smoking. Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, 1,283 incident PC (57% women) were diagnosed from 476,106 cancer-free participants, followed up for 14 years. Amounts of lifetime and baseline alcohol were estimated through lifestyle and dietary questionnaires, respectively. Cox proportional hazard models with age as primary time variable were used to estimate PC hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence interval (CI). Alcohol intake was positively associated with PC risk in men. Associations were mainly driven by extreme alcohol levels, with HRs comparing heavy drinkers (>60 g/day) to the reference category (0.1-4.9 g/day) equal to 1.77 (95% CI: 1.06, 2.95) and 1.63 (95% CI: 1.16, 2.29) for lifetime and baseline alcohol, respectively. Baseline alcohol intakes from beer (>40 g/day) and spirits/liquors (>10 g/day) showed HRs equal to 1.58 (95% CI: 1.07, 2.34) and 1.41 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.94), respectively, compared to the reference category (0.1-2.9 g/day). In women, HR estimates did not reach statistically significance. The alcohol and PC risk association was not modified by smoking status. Findings from a large prospective study suggest that baseline and lifetime alcohol intakes were positively associated with PC risk, with more apparent risk estimates for beer and spirits/liquors than wine intake.

Anthropometry and the Risk of Lung Cancer in EPIC.

The associations of body mass index (BMI) and other anthropometric measurements with lung cancer were examined in 348,108 participants in the European Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) between 1992 and 2010. The study population included 2,400 case patients with incident lung cancer, and the average length of follow-up was 11 years. Hazard ratios were calculated using Cox proportional hazard models in which we modeled smoking variables with cubic splines. Overall, there was a significant inverse association between BMI (weight (kg)/height (m)(2)) and the risk of lung cancer after adjustment for smoking and other confounders (for BMI of 30.0-34.9 versus 18.5-25.0, hazard ratio = 0.72, 95% confidence interval: 0.62, 0.84). The strength of the association declined with increasing follow-up time. Conversely, after adjustment for BMI, waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio were significantly positively associated with lung cancer risk (for the highest category of waist circumference vs. the lowest, hazard ratio = 1.25, 95% confidence interval: 1.05, 1.50). Given the decline of the inverse association between BMI and lung cancer over time, the association is likely at least partly due to weight loss resulting from preclinical lung cancer that was present at baseline. Residual confounding by smoking could also have influenced our findings.

Modifiable causes of premature death in middle-age in Western Europe: results from the EPIC cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Life expectancy is increasing in Europe, yet a substantial proportion of adults still die prematurely before the age of 70 years. We sought to estimate the joint and relative contributions of tobacco smoking, hypertension, obesity, physical inactivity, alcohol and poor diet towards risk of premature death. METHODS: We analysed data from 264,906 European adults from the EPIC prospective cohort study, aged between 40 and 70 years at the time of recruitment. Flexible parametric survival models were used to model risk of death conditional on risk factors, and survival functions and attributable fractions (AF) for deaths prior to age 70 years were calculated based on the fitted models. RESULTS: We identified 11,930 deaths which occurred before the age of 70. The AF for premature mortality for smoking was 31 % (95 % confidence interval (CI), 31-32 %) and 14 % (95 % CI, 12-16 %) for poor diet. Important contributions were also observed for overweight and obesity measured by waist-hip ratio (10 %; 95 % CI, 8-12 %) and high blood pressure (9 %; 95 % CI, 7-11 %). AFs for physical inactivity and excessive alcohol intake were 7 % and 4 %, respectively. Collectively, the AF for all six risk factors was 57 % (95 % CI, 55-59 %), being 35 % (95 % CI, 32-37 %) among never smokers and 74 % (95 % CI, 73-75 %) among current smokers. CONCLUSIONS: While smoking remains the predominant risk factor for premature death in Europe, poor diet, overweight and obesity, hypertension, physical inactivity, and excessive alcohol consumption also contribute substantially. Any attempt to minimise premature deaths will ultimately require all six factors to be addressed.

Meat and fish consumption and the risk of renal cell carcinoma in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition.

Renal cell cancer (RCC) incidence varies worldwide with a higher incidence in developed countries and lifestyle is likely to contribute to the development of this disease. We examined whether meat and fish consumption were related to the risk of RCC in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). The analysis included 493,179 EPIC participants, recruited between 1992 and 2000. Until December 2008, 691 RCC cases have been identified. Meat and fish consumption was assessed at baseline using country-specific dietary assessment instruments; 24-hour recalls were applied in an 8% subsample for calibration purposes. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Women with a high consumption of red meat (HR = 1.36, 95% CI 1.14-1.62; calibrated, per 50 g/day) and processed meat (HR = 1.78, 95% CI 1.05-3.03; calibrated, per 50 g/day) had a higher risk of RCC, while no association existed in men. For processed meat, the association with RCC incidence was prominent in premenopausal women and was lacking in postmenopausal women (p interaction = 0.02). Neither poultry nor fish consumption were statistically significantly associated with the risk of RCC. The results show a distinct association of red and processed meat consumption with incident RCC in women but not in men. A biological explanation for these findings remains unclear.

Fish consumption and mortality in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort.

Fish is a source of important nutrients and may play a role in preventing heart diseases and other health outcomes. However, studies of overall mortality and cause-specific mortality related to fish consumption are inconclusive. We examined the rate of overall mortality, as well as mortality from ischaemic heart disease and cancer in relation to the intake of total fish, lean fish, and fatty fish in a large prospective cohort including ten European countries. More than 500,000 men and women completed a dietary questionnaire in 1992-1999 and were followed up for mortality until the end of 2010. 32,587 persons were reported dead since enrolment. Hazard ratios and their 99% confidence interval were estimated using Cox proportional hazard regression models. Fish consumption was examined using quintiles based on reported consumption, using moderate fish consumption (third quintile) as reference, and as continuous variables, using increments of 10 g/day. All analyses were adjusted for possible confounders. No association was seen for fish consumption and overall or cause-specific mortality for both the categorical and the continuous analyses, but there seemed to be a U-shaped trend (p < 0.000) with fatty fish consumption and total mortality and with total fish consumption and cancer mortality (p = 0.046).

Lifestyle factors and mortality risk in individuals with diabetes mellitus: are the associations different from those in individuals without diabetes?

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Thus far, it is unclear whether lifestyle recommendations for people with diabetes should be different from those for the general public. We investigated whether the associations between lifestyle factors and mortality risk differ between individuals with and without diabetes. METHODS: Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), a cohort was formed of 6,384 persons with diabetes and 258,911 EPIC participants without known diabetes. Joint Cox proportional hazard regression models of people with and without diabetes were built for the following lifestyle factors in relation to overall mortality risk: BMI, waist/height ratio, 26 food groups, alcohol consumption, leisure-time physical activity, smoking. Likelihood ratio tests for heterogeneity assessed statistical differences in regression coefficients. RESULTS: Multivariable adjusted mortality risk among individuals with diabetes compared with those without was increased, with an HR of 1.62 (95% CI 1.51, 1.75). Intake of fruit, legumes, nuts, seeds, pasta, poultry and vegetable oil was related to a lower mortality risk, and intake of butter and margarine was related to an increased mortality risk. These associations were significantly different in magnitude from those in diabetes-free individuals, but directions were similar. No differences between people with and without diabetes were detected for the other lifestyle factors. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Diabetes status did not substantially influence the associations between lifestyle and mortality risk. People with diabetes may benefit more from a healthy diet, but the directions of association were similar. Thus, our study suggests that lifestyle advice with respect to mortality for patients with diabetes should not differ from recommendations for the general population.