ABSTRACT
Purpose: Local recurrence predicts dismal prognosis in eyelid sebaceous carcinoma (SC). Recurrence predictors vary across studies. Accurate recurrence estimation is essential for individualized therapy in eyelid SC. This study aims to identify recurrence predictors and develop a nomogram for personalized prediction in eyelid SC. Methods: We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study. Chart reviews were performed in 418 consecutive patients with eyelid SC. All patients were followed up after their initial surgery. Multivariate Cox regression was used to explore the independent predictors of recurrence. A nomogram for recurrence prediction was developed and validated with bootstrap resampling. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability were compared with the Tumor, Node, Metastasis (TNM) staging system. Results: Over a median of 60-month follow-up, 167 patients (40%) had local recurrence. The median time from diagnosis to recurrence was 14 months. The 1-year cumulative recurrence rate was 18%. Diagnostic delay (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.00-1.01, P = 0.001), orbital involvement (HR = 4.47, 95% CI = 3.04-6.58, P < 0.001), Ki67 (HR = 1.01, 95% CI = 1.00-1.02, P = 0.008) and initial surgery of Mohs micrographic surgery with intraoperative frozen section control (HR = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.35-0.80, P = 0.003) were independent influencing factors of recurrence. A nomogram integrating these four factors combined with pagetoid spread displayed satisfactory discriminative ability (C-index = 0.80-0.83; area under the curve [AUC] = 0.82-0.84), which compared favorably than TNM staging (all P < 0.05). Conclusions: The recurrence rate is high in eyelid SC. Early detection and primary resection with Mohs micrographic surgery are recommended in controlling recurrence. Patients with orbital involvement, high Ki67 expression, and pagetoid spread may require adjuvant measures. This nomogram offers more accurate recurrence estimates, aiding in therapeutic decision making.