Long-term decrease in Asian monsoon rainfall and abrupt climate change events over the past 6,700 years.

Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability and its long-term ecological and societal impacts extending back to Neolithic times are poorly understood due to a lack of high-resolution climate proxy data. Here, we present a precisely dated and well-calibrated tree-ring stable isotope chronology from the Tibetan Plateau with 1- to 5-y resolution that reflects high- to low-frequency ASM variability from 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a persistent drying trend since the mid-Holocene, a rapid decrease in moisture availability between ∼2000 and ∼1500 BCE caused a dry hydroclimatic regime from ∼1675 to ∼1185 BCE, with mean precipitation estimated at 42 ± 4% and 5 ± 2% lower than during the mid-Holocene and the instrumental period, respectively. This second-millennium-BCE megadrought marks the mid-to late Holocene transition, during which regional forests declined and enhanced aeolian activity affected northern Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ∼2000 BCE contributed to the shift of Neolithic cultures in northern China and likely triggered human migration and societal transformation.

Biomass responses in a temperate European grassland through 17 years of elevated CO2.

Future increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations will potentially enhance grassland biomass production and shift the functional group composition with consequences for ecosystem functioning. In the "GiFACE" experiment (Giessen Free Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment), fertilized grassland plots were fumigated with elevated CO2 (eCO2 ) year-round during daylight hours since 1998, at a level of +20% relative to ambient concentrations (in 1998, aCO2 was 364 ppm and eCO2 399 ppm; in 2014, aCO2 was 397 ppm and eCO2 518 ppm). Harvests were conducted twice annually through 23 years including 17 years with eCO2 (1998 to 2014). Biomass consisted of C3 grasses and forbs, with a small proportion of legumes. The total aboveground biomass (TAB) was significantly increased under eCO2 (p = .045 and .025, at first and second harvest). The dominant plant functional group grasses responded positively at the start, but for forbs, the effect of eCO2 started out as a negative response. The increase in TAB in response to eCO2 was approximately 15% during the period from 2006 to 2014, suggesting that there was no attenuation of eCO2 effects over time, tentatively a consequence of the fertilization management. Biomass and soil moisture responses were closely linked. The soil moisture surplus (c. 3%) in eCO2 manifested in the latter years was associated with a positive biomass response of both functional groups. The direction of the biomass response of the functional group forbs changed over the experimental duration, intensified by extreme weather conditions, pointing to the need of long-term field studies for obtaining reliable responses of perennial ecosystems to eCO2 and as a basis for model development.

Ambient temperature and mental health hospitalizations in Bern, Switzerland: A 45-year time-series study.

BACKGROUND: Psychiatric disorders constitute a major public health concern that are associated with substantial health and socioeconomic burden. Psychiatric patients may be more vulnerable to high temperatures, which under current climate change projections will most likely increase the burden of this public health concern. OBJECTIVE: This study investigated the short-term association between ambient temperature and mental health hospitalizations in Bern, Switzerland. METHODS: Daily hospitalizations for mental disorders between 1973 and 2017 were collected from the University Hospital of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy in Bern. Population-weighted daily mean ambient temperatures were derived for the catchment area of the hospital from 2.3-km gridded weather maps. Conditional quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag linear models were applied to assess the association up to three days after the exposure. Stratified analyses were conducted by age, sex, and subdiagnosis, and by subperiods (1973-1989 and 1990-2017). Additional subanalyses were performed to assess whether larger risks were found during the warm season or were due to heatwaves. RESULTS: The study included a total number of 88,996 hospitalizations. Overall, the hospitalization risk increased linearly by 4.0% (95% CI 2.0%, 7.0%) for every 10°C increase in mean daily temperature. No evidence of a nonlinear association or larger risks during the warm season or heatwaves was found. Similar estimates were found across for all sex and age categories, and larger risks were found for hospitalizations related to developmental disorders (29.0%; 95% CI 9.0%, 54.0%), schizophrenia (10.0%; 95% CI 4.0%, 15.0%), and for the later rather than the earlier period (5.0%; 95% CI 2.0%, 8.0% vs. 2.0%; 95% CI -3.0%, 8.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that increasing temperatures could negatively affect mental status in psychiatric patients. Specific public health policies are urgently needed to protect this vulnerable population from the effects of climate change.

Timing and duration of European larch growing season along altitudinal gradients in the Swiss Alps.

The 2007 European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) growing season was monitored along two elevational transects in the Lötschental valley in the Swiss Alps. Phenological observations and weekly microcore sampling of 28 larch trees were conducted between April and October 2007 at seven study sites regularly spaced from 1350 to 2150 m a.s.l. on northwest- and southeast-facing slopes. The developmental stages of nearly 75,000 individual cells assessed on 1200 thin sections were used to investigate the links between the trees' thermal regimes and growth phases including the beginning and ending of cell enlargement, wall thickening and maturation of the stem wood. Needles appeared approximately 3-4 weeks earlier than stem growth. The duration of ring formation lasted from mid-May to the end of October, with the length of the growing season decreasing along elevation from 137 to 101 days. The onset of the different growing seasons changed by 3-4 days per 100 m elevation; the ending of the growing season, however, appeared minimally related to altitude. If associated with the monitored altitudinal lapse rate of -0.5 degrees C per 100 m, these results translate into a lengthening of the growing season by approximately 7 days per degree Celsius. This study provides new data on the timing and duration of basic growth processes and contributes to quantification of the impacts of global warming on tree growth and productivity.

Extreme climatic events down-regulate the grassland biomass response to elevated carbon dioxide.

Terrestrial ecosystems are considered as carbon sinks that may mitigate the impacts of increased atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]). However, it is not clear what their carbon sink capacity will be under extreme climatic conditions. In this study, we used long-term (1998-2013) data from a C3 grassland Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment in Germany to study the combined effects of elevated [CO2] and extreme climatic events (ECEs) on aboveground biomass production. CO2 fertilization effect (CFE), which represents the promoted plant photosynthesis and water use efficiency under higher [CO2], was quantiffied by calculating the relative differences in biomass between the plots with [CO2] enrichment and the plots with ambient [CO2]. Down-regulated CFEs were found when ECEs occurred during the growing season, and the CFE decreases were statistically significant with p well below 0.05 (t-test). Of all the observed ECEs, the strongest CFE decreases were associated with intensive and prolonged heat waves. These findings suggest that more frequent ECEs in the future are likely to restrict the mitigatory effects of C3 grassland ecosystems, leading to an accelerated warming trend. To reduce the uncertainties of future projections, the atmosphere-vegetation interactions, especially the ECEs effects, are emphasized and need to be better accounted.

Modelling Climate and Societal Resilience in the Eastern Mediterranean in the Last Millennium.

This article analyses high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Central and Eastern Mediterranean and compares them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for the Crusader period in the Levant (1095-1290 CE), the Mamluk regime in Transjordan (1260-1516 CE) and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion (1580-1610 CE). During the three time intervals, environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. Our research emphasises the challenges, opportunities and limitations of linking proxy records, palaeoreconstructions and model simulations to better understand how climate can affect human history.

East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia.

East Asia has experienced strong warming since the 1960s accompanied by an increased frequency of heat waves and shrinking glaciers over the Tibetan Plateau and the Tien Shan. Here, we place the recent warmth in a long-term perspective by presenting a new spatially resolved warm-season (May-September) temperature reconstruction for the period 1-2000 CE using 59 multiproxy records from a wide range of East Asian regions. Our Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) based reconstructions generally agree with earlier shorter regional temperature reconstructions but are more stable due to additional temperature sensitive proxies. We find a rather warm period during the first two centuries CE, followed by a multi-century long cooling period and again a warm interval covering the 900-1200 CE period (Medieval Climate Anomaly, MCA). The interval from 1450 to 1850 CE (Little Ice Age, LIA) was characterized by cooler conditions and the last 150 years are characterized by a continuous warming until recent times. Our results also suggest that the 1990s were likely the warmest decade in at least 1200 years. The comparison between an ensemble of climate model simulations and our summer reconstructions since 850 CE shows good agreement and an important role of internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales.

Winter amplification of the European Little Ice Age cooling by the subpolar gyre.

Climate reconstructions reveal a strong winter amplification of the cooling over central and northern continental Europe during the Little Ice Age period (LIA, here defined as c. 16th-18th centuries) via persistent, blocked atmospheric conditions. Although various potential drivers have been suggested to explain the LIA cooling, no coherent mechanism has yet been proposed for this seasonal contrast. Here we demonstrate that such exceptional wintertime conditions arose from sea ice expansion and reduced ocean heat losses in the Nordic and Barents seas, driven by a multicentennial reduction in the northward heat transport by the subpolar gyre (SPG). However, these anomalous oceanic conditions were largely decoupled from the European atmospheric variability in summer. Our novel dynamical explanation is derived from analysis of an ensemble of last millennium climate simulations, and is supported by reconstructions of European temperatures and atmospheric circulation variability and North Atlantic/Arctic paleoceanographic conditions. We conclude that SPG-related internal climate feedbacks were responsible for the winter amplification of the European LIA cooling. Thus, characterization of SPG dynamics is essential for understanding multicentennial variations of the seasonal cycle in the European/North Atlantic sector.

Weakening of annual temperature cycle over the Tibetan Plateau since the 1870s.

The annual cycle of extra-tropical surface air temperature is an important component of the Earth's climate system. Over the past decades, a reduced amplitude of this mode has been observed in some regions. Although attributed to anthropogenic forcing, it remains unclear when dampening of the annual cycle started. Here we use a residual series of tree-ring width and maximum latewood density from the Tibetan Plateau >4,000 m asl to reconstruct changes in temperature seasonality over the past three centuries. The new proxy evidence suggests that the onset of a decrease in summer-to-winter temperature difference over the Tibetan Plateau occurred in the 1870s. Our results imply that the influence of anthropogenic forcing on temperature seasonality might have started in the late nineteenth century, and that future human influence may further contribute to a weakening of the annual temperature cycle, with subsequent effects on ecosystem functioning and productivity.

Tambora 1815 as a test case for high impact volcanic eruptions: Earth system effects.

The eruption of Tambora (Indonesia) in April 1815 had substantial effects on global climate and led to the 'Year Without a Summer' of 1816 in Europe and North America. Although a tragic event-tens of thousands of people lost their lives-the eruption also was an 'experiment of nature' from which science has learned until today. The aim of this study is to summarize our current understanding of the Tambora eruption and its effects on climate as expressed in early instrumental observations, climate proxies and geological evidence, climate reconstructions, and model simulations. Progress has been made with respect to our understanding of the eruption process and estimated amount of SO2 injected into the atmosphere, although large uncertainties still exist with respect to altitude and hemispheric distribution of Tambora aerosols. With respect to climate effects, the global and Northern Hemispheric cooling are well constrained by proxies whereas there is no strong signal in Southern Hemisphere proxies. Newly recovered early instrumental information for Western Europe and parts of North America, regions with particularly strong climate effects, allow Tambora's effect on the weather systems to be addressed. Climate models respond to prescribed Tambora-like forcing with a strengthening of the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex, global cooling and a slowdown of the water cycle, weakening of the summer monsoon circulations, a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and a decrease of atmospheric CO2. Combining observations, climate proxies, and model simulations for the case of Tambora, a better understanding of climate processes has emerged. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:569-589. doi: 10.1002/wcc.407 This article is categorized under: 1Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Paleoclimate.

The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature record map of Europe.

The summer of 2010 was exceptionally warm in eastern Europe and large parts of Russia. We provide evidence that the anomalous 2010 warmth that caused adverse impacts exceeded the amplitude and spatial extent of the previous hottest summer of 2003. "Mega-heatwaves" such as the 2003 and 2010 events likely broke the 500-year-long seasonal temperature records over approximately 50% of Europe. According to regional multi-model experiments, the probability of a summer experiencing mega-heatwaves will increase by a factor of 5 to 10 within the next 40 years. However, the magnitude of the 2010 event was so extreme that despite this increase, the likelihood of an analog over the same region remains fairly low until the second half of the 21st century.

2500 years of European climate variability and human susceptibility.

Climate variations influenced the agricultural productivity, health risk, and conflict level of preindustrial societies. Discrimination between environmental and anthropogenic impacts on past civilizations, however, remains difficult because of the paucity of high-resolution paleoclimatic evidence. We present tree ring-based reconstructions of central European summer precipitation and temperature variability over the past 2500 years. Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been exceeded in magnitude and duration. Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and medieval prosperity. Increased climate variability from ~250 to 600 C.E. coincided with the demise of the western Roman Empire and the turmoil of the Migration Period. Such historical data may provide a basis for counteracting the recent political and fiscal reluctance to mitigate projected climate change.

European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500.

Multiproxy reconstructions of monthly and seasonal surface temperature fields for Europe back to 1500 show that the late 20th- and early 21st-century European climate is very likely (>95% confidence level) warmer than that of any time during the past 500 years. This agrees with findings for the entire Northern Hemisphere. European winter average temperatures during the period 1500 to 1900 were reduced by approximately 0.5 degrees C (0.25 degrees C for annual mean temperatures) compared to the 20th century. Summer temperatures did not experience systematic century-scale cooling relative to present conditions. The coldest European winter was 1708/1709; 2003 was by far the hottest summer.