Empagliflozin in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND: The effects of empagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease who are at risk for disease progression are not well understood. The EMPA-KIDNEY trial was designed to assess the effects of treatment with empagliflozin in a broad range of such patients. METHODS: We enrolled patients with chronic kidney disease who had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of at least 20 but less than 45 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area, or who had an eGFR of at least 45 but less than 90 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (with albumin measured in milligrams and creatinine measured in grams) of at least 200. Patients were randomly assigned to receive empagliflozin (10 mg once daily) or matching placebo. The primary outcome was a composite of progression of kidney disease (defined as end-stage kidney disease, a sustained decrease in eGFR to <10 ml per minute per 1.73 m2, a sustained decrease in eGFR of ≥40% from baseline, or death from renal causes) or death from cardiovascular causes. RESULTS: A total of 6609 patients underwent randomization. During a median of 2.0 years of follow-up, progression of kidney disease or death from cardiovascular causes occurred in 432 of 3304 patients (13.1%) in the empagliflozin group and in 558 of 3305 patients (16.9%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64 to 0.82; P<0.001). Results were consistent among patients with or without diabetes and across subgroups defined according to eGFR ranges. The rate of hospitalization from any cause was lower in the empagliflozin group than in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.78 to 0.95; P = 0.003), but there were no significant between-group differences with respect to the composite outcome of hospitalization for heart failure or death from cardiovascular causes (which occurred in 4.0% in the empagliflozin group and 4.6% in the placebo group) or death from any cause (in 4.5% and 5.1%, respectively). The rates of serious adverse events were similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among a wide range of patients with chronic kidney disease who were at risk for disease progression, empagliflozin therapy led to a lower risk of progression of kidney disease or death from cardiovascular causes than placebo. (Funded by Boehringer Ingelheim and others; EMPA-KIDNEY ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03594110; EudraCT number, 2017-002971-24.).

Effect of Sacubitril/Valsartan on Cognitive Function in Patients With Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction: A Prespecified Analysis of PARAGON-HF.

BACKGROUND: A hypothetical concern has been raised that sacubitril/valsartan might cause cognitive impairment because neprilysin is one of several enzymes degrading amyloid-ß peptides in the brain, some of which are neurotoxic and linked to Alzheimer-type dementia. To address this, we examined the effect of sacubitril/valsartan compared with valsartan on cognitive function in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in a prespecified substudy of PARAGON-HF (Prospective Comparison of Angiotensin Receptor Neprilysin Inhibitor With Angiotensin Receptor Blocker Global Outcomes in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction). METHODS: In PARAGON-HF, serial assessment of cognitive function was conducted in a subset of patients with the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE; score range, 0-30, with lower scores reflecting worse cognitive function). The prespecified primary analysis of this substudy was the change from baseline in MMSE score at 96 weeks. Other post hoc analyses included cognitive decline (fall in MMSEs score of ≥3 points), cognitive impairment (MMSE score <24), or the occurrence of dementia-related adverse events. RESULTS: Among 2895 patients included in the MMSE substudy with baseline MMSE score measured, 1453 patients were assigned to sacubitril/valsartan and 1442 to valsartan. Their mean age was 73 years, and the median follow-up was 32 months. The mean±SD MMSE score at randomization was 27.4±3.0 in the sacubitril/valsartan group, with 10% having an MMSE score <24; the corresponding numbers were nearly identical in the valsartan group. The mean change from baseline to 96 weeks in the sacubitril/valsartan group was -0.05 (SE, 0.07); the corresponding change in the valsartan group was -0.04 (0.07). The mean between-treatment difference at week 96 was -0.01 (95% CI, -0.20 to 0.19; P=0.95). Analyses of a ≥3-point decline in MMSE, decrease to a score <24, dementia-related adverse events, and combinations of these showed no difference between sacubitril/valsartan and valsartan. No difference was found in the subgroup of patients tested for apolipoprotein E ε4 allele genotype. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in PARAGON-HF had relatively low baseline MMSE scores. Cognitive change, measured by MMSE, did not differ between treatment with sacubitril/valsartan and treatment with valsartan in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01920711.

A novel score to predict left ventricular recovery in peripartum cardiomyopathy derived from the ESC EORP Peripartum Cardiomyopathy Registry.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: There are no established clinical tools to predict left ventricular (LV) recovery in women with peripartum cardiomyopathy (PPCM). Using data from women enrolled in the ESC EORP PPCM Registry, the aim was to derive a prognostic model to predict LV recovery at 6 months and develop the 'ESC EORP PPCM Recovery Score'-a tool for clinicians to estimate the probability of LV recovery. METHODS: From 2012 to 2018, 752 women from 51 countries were enrolled. Eligibility included (i) a peripartum state, (ii) signs or symptoms of heart failure, (iii) LV ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤ 45%, and (iv) exclusion of alternative causes of heart failure. The model was derived using data from participants in the Registry and internally validated using bootstrap methods. The outcome was LV recovery (LVEF ≥50%) at six months. An integer score was created. RESULTS: Overall, 465 women had a 6-month echocardiogram. LV recovery occurred in 216 (46.5%). The final model included baseline LVEF, baseline LV end diastolic diameter, human development index (a summary measure of a country's social and economic development), duration of symptoms, QRS duration and pre-eclampsia. The model was well-calibrated and had good discriminatory ability (C-statistic 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.74-0.83). The model was internally validated (optimism-corrected C-statistic 0.78, 95% CI 0.73-0.82). CONCLUSIONS: A model which accurately predicts LV recovery at 6 months in women with PPCM was derived. The corresponding ESC EORP PPCM Recovery Score can be easily applied in clinical practice to predict the probability of LV recovery for an individual in order to guide tailored counselling and treatment.

Cardiomyopathies in children and adolescents: aetiology, management, and outcomes in the European Society of Cardiology EURObservational Research Programme Cardiomyopathy and Myocarditis Registry.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Childhood-onset cardiomyopathies are rare and poorly characterized. This study examined the baseline characteristics and 1-year follow-up of children with cardiomyopathy in the first European Cardiomyopathy Registry. METHODS: Prospective data were collected on individuals aged 1-<18 years enrolled in the European Society of Cardiology EURObservational Research Programme Cardiomyopathy and Myocarditis long-term registry (June 2014-December 2016). RESULTS: A total of 633 individuals aged ≤18 years with hypertrophic [HCM; n = 388 (61.3%)], dilated [DCM; n = 206 (32.5%)], restrictive [RCM; n = 28 (4.4%)], and arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy [ARVC; n = 11 (1.7%)] were enrolled by 23 referral centres in 14 countries. Median age at diagnosis was 4.0 [interquartile range (IQR) 0-10] years, and there was a male predominance [n = 372 (58.8%)] across all subtypes, with the exception of DCM diagnosed <10 years of age; 621 (98.1%) patients were receiving cardiac medication and 80 (12.6%) had an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator. A total of 253 patients (253/535, 47.3%) had familial disease. Genetic testing was performed in 414 (67.8%) patients with a pathogenic or likely pathogenic variant reported in 250 (60.4%). Rare disease phenocopies were reported in 177 patients (28.0%) and were most frequent in patients under 10 years [142 (30.9%) vs. 35 (19.6%); P = .003]. Over a median follow-up of 12.5 months (IQR 11.3-15.3 months), 18 patients (3.3%) died [HCM n = 9 (2.6%), DCM n = 5 (3.0%), RCM n = 4 (16.0%)]. Heart failure events were most frequent in RCM patients (36.0%). CONCLUSIONS: The findings confirm the heterogeneous aetiology of childhood cardiomyopathies and show a high frequency of familial disease. Outcomes differed by cardiomyopathy subtype, highlighting a need for disease-specific evaluation and treatment.

Endomyocardial biopsy: safety and prognostic utility in paediatric and adult myocarditis in the European Society of Cardiology EURObservational Research Programme Cardiomyopathy and Myocarditis Long-Term Registry.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Contemporary multicentre data on clinical and diagnostic spectrum and outcome in myocarditis are limited. Study aims were to describe baseline features, 1-year follow-up, and baseline predictors of outcome in clinically suspected or biopsy-proven myocarditis (2013 European Society of Cardiology criteria) in adult and paediatric patients from the EURObservational Research Programme Cardiomyopathy and Myocarditis Long-Term Registry. METHODS: Five hundred eighty-one (68.0% male) patients, 493 adults, median age 38 (27-52) years, and 88 children, aged 8 (3-13) years, were divided into 3 groups: Group 1 (n = 233), clinically suspected myocarditis with abnormal cardiac magnetic resonance; Group 2 (n = 222), biopsy-proven myocarditis; and Group 3 (n = 126) clinically suspected myocarditis with normal or inconclusive or no cardiac magnetic resonance. Baseline features were analysed overall, in adults vs. children, and among groups. One-year outcome events included death/heart transplantation, ventricular assist device (VAD) or implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) implantation, and hospitalization for cardiac causes. RESULTS: Endomyocardial biopsy, mainly right ventricular, had a similarly low complication rate in children and adults (4.7% vs. 4.9%, P = NS), with no procedure-related death. A classical myocarditis pattern on cardiac magnetic resonance was found in 31.3% of children and in 57.9% of adults with biopsy-proven myocarditis (P < .001). At 1-year follow-up, 11/410 patients (2.7%) died, 7 (1.7%) received a heart transplant, 3 underwent VAD (0.7%), and 16 (3.9%) underwent ICD implantation. Independent predictors at diagnosis of death or heart transplantation or hospitalization or VAD implantation or ICD implantation at 1-year follow-up were lower left ventricular ejection fraction and the need for immunosuppressants for new myocarditis diagnosis refractory to non-aetiology-driven therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Endomyocardial biopsy was safe, and cardiac magnetic resonance using Lake Louise criteria was less sensitive, particularly in children. Virus-negative lymphocytic myocarditis was predominant both in children and adults, and use of immunosuppressive treatments was low. Lower left ventricular ejection fraction and the need for immunosuppressants at diagnosis were independent predictors of unfavourable outcome events at 1 year.

Survival After Invasive or Conservative Management of Stable Coronary Disease.

BACKGROUND: The ISCHEMIA trial (International Study of Comparative Health Effectiveness With Medical and Invasive Approaches) compared an initial invasive versus an initial conservative management strategy for patients with chronic coronary disease and moderate or severe ischemia, with no major difference in most outcomes during a median of 3.2 years. Extended follow-up for mortality is ongoing. METHODS: ISCHEMIA participants were randomized to an initial invasive strategy added to guideline-directed medical therapy or a conservative strategy. Patients with moderate or severe ischemia, ejection fraction ≥35%, and no recent acute coronary syndromes were included. Those with an unacceptable level of angina were excluded. Extended follow-up for vital status is being conducted by sites or through central death index search. Data obtained through December 2021 are included in this interim report. We analyzed all-cause, cardiovascular, and noncardiovascular mortality by randomized strategy, using nonparametric cumulative incidence estimators, Cox regression models, and Bayesian methods. Undetermined deaths were classified as cardiovascular as prespecified in the trial protocol. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics for 5179 original ISCHEMIA trial participants included median age 65 years, 23% women, 16% Hispanic, 4% Black, 42% with diabetes, and median ejection fraction 0.60. A total of 557 deaths accrued during a median follow-up of 5.7 years, with 268 of these added in the extended follow-up phase. This included a total of 343 cardiovascular deaths, 192 noncardiovascular deaths, and 22 unclassified deaths. All-cause mortality was not different between randomized treatment groups (7-year rate, 12.7% in invasive strategy, 13.4% in conservative strategy; adjusted hazard ratio, 1.00 [95% CI, 0.85-1.18]). There was a lower 7-year rate cardiovascular mortality (6.4% versus 8.6%; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.63-0.96]) with an initial invasive strategy but a higher 7-year rate of noncardiovascular mortality (5.6% versus 4.4%; adjusted hazard ratio, 1.44 [95% CI, 1.08-1.91]) compared with the conservative strategy. No heterogeneity of treatment effect was evident in prespecified subgroups, including multivessel coronary disease. CONCLUSIONS: There was no difference in all-cause mortality with an initial invasive strategy compared with an initial conservative strategy, but there was lower risk of cardiovascular mortality and higher risk of noncardiovascular mortality with an initial invasive strategy during a median follow-up of 5.7 years. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT04894877.

Angiotensin Receptor-Neprilysin Inhibition in Acute Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: In patients with symptomatic heart failure, sacubitril-valsartan has been found to reduce the risk of hospitalization and death from cardiovascular causes more effectively than an angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitor. Trials comparing the effects of these drugs in patients with acute myocardial infarction have been lacking. METHODS: We randomly assigned patients with myocardial infarction complicated by a reduced left ventricular ejection fraction, pulmonary congestion, or both to receive either sacubitril-valsartan (97 mg of sacubitril and 103 mg of valsartan twice daily) or ramipril (5 mg twice daily) in addition to recommended therapy. The primary outcome was death from cardiovascular causes or incident heart failure (outpatient symptomatic heart failure or heart failure leading to hospitalization), whichever occurred first. RESULTS: A total of 5661 patients underwent randomization; 2830 were assigned to receive sacubitril-valsartan and 2831 to receive ramipril. Over a median of 22 months, a primary-outcome event occurred in 338 patients (11.9%) in the sacubitril-valsartan group and in 373 patients (13.2%) in the ramipril group (hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78 to 1.04; P = 0.17). Death from cardiovascular causes or hospitalization for heart failure occurred in 308 patients (10.9%) in the sacubitril-valsartan group and in 335 patients (11.8%) in the ramipril group (hazard ratio, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.78 to 1.07); death from cardiovascular causes in 168 (5.9%) and 191 (6.7%), respectively (hazard ratio, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.71 to 1.08); and death from any cause in 213 (7.5%) and 242 (8.5%), respectively (hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.05). Treatment was discontinued because of an adverse event in 357 patients (12.6%) in the sacubitril-valsartan group and 379 patients (13.4%) in the ramipril group. CONCLUSIONS: Sacubitril-valsartan was not associated with a significantly lower incidence of death from cardiovascular causes or incident heart failure than ramipril among patients with acute myocardial infarction. (Funded by Novartis; PARADISE-MI ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02924727.).

Seattle proportional risk model in GISSI-HF: Estimated benefit of ICD in patients with EF less than 50.

BACKGROUND: The Seattle Proportional Risk Model (SPRM) estimates the proportion of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in heart failure (HF) patients, identifying those most likely to benefit from implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy (those with ≥50% estimated proportion of SCD). The GISSI-HF trial tested fish oil and rosuvastatin in HF patients. We used the SPRM to evaluate its accuracy in this cohort in predicting potential ICD benefit in patients with EF ≤50% and an SPRM-predicted proportion of SCD either ≥50% or <50%. METHODS: The SPRM was estimated in patients with EF ≤50% and in a logistic regression model comparing SCD with non-SCD. RESULTS: We evaluated 6,750 patients with EF ≤50%. There were 1,892 all-cause deaths, including 610 SCDs. Fifty percent of EF ≤35% patients and 43% with EF 36% to 50% had an SPRM of ≥50%. The SPRM (OR: 1.92, P < 0.0001) accurately predicted the risk of SCD vs non-SCD with an estimated proportion of SCD of 44% vs the observed proportion of 41% at 1 year. By traditional criteria for ICD implantation (EF ≤35%, NYHA class II or III), 64.5% of GISSI-HF patients would be eligible, with an estimated ICD benefit of 0.81. By SPRM >50%, 47.8% may be eligible, including 30.2% with EF >35%. GISSI-HF participants with EF ≤35% with SPRM ≥50% had an estimated ICD HR of 0.64, comparable to patients with EF 36% to 50% with SPRM ≥50% (HR: 0.65). CONCLUSIONS: The SPRM discriminated SCD vs non-SCD in GISSI-HF, both in patients with EF ≤35% and with EF 36% to 50%. The comparable estimated ICD benefit in patients with EF ≤35% and EF 36% to 50% supports the use of a proportional risk model for shared decision making with patients being considered for primary prevention ICD therapy.

Left ventricular ejection fraction digit bias and reclassification of heart failure with mildly reduced vs reduced ejection fraction based on the 2021 definition and classification of heart failure.

AIMS: Aims were to evaluate (1) reclassification of patients from heart failure with mildly reduced (HFmrEF) to reduced (HFrEF) ejection fraction when an EF = 40% was considered as HFrEF, (2) role of EF digit bias, ie, EF reporting favouring 5% increments; (3) outcomes in relation to missing and biased EF reports, in a large multinational HF registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: Of 25,154 patients in the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) HF Long-Term registry, 17% had missing EF and of those with available EF, 24% had HFpEF (EF≥50%), 21% HFmrEF (40%-49%) and 55% HFrEF (<40%) according to the 2016 ESC guidelines´ classification. EF was "exactly" 40% in 7%, leading to reclassifying 34% of the HFmrEF population defined as EF = 40% to 49% to HFrEF when applying the 2021 ESC Guidelines classification (14% had HFmrEF as EF = 41% to 49% and 62% had HFrEF as EF≤40%). EF was reported as a value ending with 0 or 5 in ∼37% of the population. Such potential digit bias was associated with more missing values for other characteristics and higher risk of all-cause death and HF hospitalization. Patients with missing EF had higher risk of all-cause and CV mortality, and HF hospitalization compared to those with recorded EF. CONCLUSIONS: Many patients had reported EF = 40%. This led to substantial reclassification of EF from old HFmrEF (40%-49%) to new HFrEF (≤40%). There was considerable digit bias in EF reporting and missing EF reporting, which appeared to occur not at random and may reflect less rigorous overall care and worse outcomes.

Health-related quality of life and healthcare costs of symptoms and cardiovascular disease events in patients with atrial fibrillation: a longitudinal analysis of 27 countries from the EURObservational Research Programme on Atrial Fibrillation general long-term registry.

AIMS: We examine the effects of symptoms and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events on health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and healthcare costs in a European population with atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS AND RESULTS: In the EURObservational Research Programme on AF long-term general registry, AF patients from 250 centres in 27 European countries were enrolled and followed for 2 years. We used fixed effects models to estimate the association of symptoms and CVD events on HRQOL and annual healthcare costs. We found significant decrements in HRQOL in AF patients in whom ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) [-0.075 (95% confidence interval -0.144, -0.006)], angina or non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) [-0.037 (-0.071, -0.003)], new-onset/worsening heart failure [-0.064 (-0.088, -0.039)], bleeding events [-0.031 (-0.059, -0.003)], thromboembolic events [-0.071 (-0.115, -0.027)], mild symptoms [0.037 (-0.048, -0.026)], or severe/disabling symptoms [-0.090 (-0.108, -0.072)] occurred during the follow-up. During follow-up, annual healthcare costs were associated with an increase of €11 718 (€8497, €14 939) in patients with STEMI, €5823 (€4757, €6889) in patients with angina/NSTEMI, €3689 (€3219, €4158) in patients with new-onset or worsening heart failure, €3792 (€3315, €4270) in patients with bleeding events, and €3182 (€2483, €3881) in patients with thromboembolic events, compared with AF patients without these events. Healthcare costs were primarily driven by inpatient costs. There were no significant differences in HRQOL or healthcare resource use between EU regions or by sex. CONCLUSION: Symptoms and CVD events are associated with a high burden on AF patients and healthcare systems throughout Europe.

To retrieve values of albuminuria to define the size of CKD patients eligible to SGLT-2Is: An explorative analysis using a primary care database.

PURPOSE: To address missingness of albuminuria values, which establish the eligibility to SGLT-2Is for patients with CKD, using the multiple imputation (MI) method. METHODS: We selected patients aged 18 or older and diagnosed with CKD in a primary care database. Those with severe CKD and/or previously treated with SGLT-2Is were excluded. Then, we collected all available information on albuminuria within 90 days the measure of GFR. A value of albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR) ranging 200-5000 mg/g or otherwise was the response variable on which we ran MI. Using logistic regression, odds ratios (OR) and related 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for each covariate toward the response variable for both full and imputed dataset. RESULTS: The determinants showed consistent estimates between the full and imputed datasets as demonstrated by the overlaps of the CIs and the similar point estimates. As expected, there were some exceptions, such as diabetes (OR of 1.2 vs. 0.5) and use of diabetic medications (OR of 1.0 vs. 2.1) and/or statins (OR of 1.1 vs. 1.8). CONCLUSIONS: Besides being a reminder for GPs to prescribe and register albuminuria in certain patients' categories, these determinants might be translated into an operational algorithm to input ACR values in administrative data sources. Scenarios for the reimbursement criteria regulating SGLT-2Is to treat CKD would be therefore simulated on more inferable estimates.

Economic burden of cardiovascular diseases in the European Union: a population-based cost study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) impacts significantly health and social care systems as well as society through premature mortality and disability, with patients requiring care from relatives. Previous pan-European estimates of the economic burden of CVD are now outdated. This study aims to provide novel, up-to-date evidence on the economic burden across the 27 European Union (EU) countries in 2021. METHODS: Aggregate country-specific resource use data on morbidity, mortality, and health, social and informal care were obtained from international sources, such as the Statistical Office of the European Communities, enhanced by data from the European Society of Cardiology Atlas programme and patient-level data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. Country-specific unit costs were used, with cost estimates reported on a per capita basis, after adjustment for price differentials. RESULTS: CVD is estimated to cost the EU €282 billion annually, with health and long-term care accounting for €155 billion (55%), equalling 11% of EU-health expenditure. Productivity losses accounted for 17% (€48 billion), whereas informal care costs were €79 billion (28%). CVD represented a cost of €630 per person, ranging from €381 in Cyprus to €903 in Germany. Coronary heart disease accounted for 27% (€77 billion) and cerebrovascular diseases for 27% (€76 billion) of CVD costs. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides contemporary estimates of the wide-ranging impact of CVD on all aspects of the economy. The data help inform evidence-based policies to reduce the impact of CVD, promoting care access and better health outcomes and economic sustainability.

Frailty and outcomes in heart failure patients from high-, middle-, and low-income countries.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: There is little information on the incremental prognostic importance of frailty beyond conventional prognostic variables in heart failure (HF) populations from different country income levels. METHODS: A total of 3429 adults with HF (age 61 ± 14 years, 33% women) from 27 high-, middle- and low-income countries were prospectively studied. Baseline frailty was evaluated by the Fried index, incorporating handgrip strength, gait speed, physical activity, unintended weight loss, and self-reported exhaustion. Mean left ventricular ejection fraction was 39 ± 14% and 26% had New York Heart Association Class III/IV symptoms. Participants were followed for a median (25th to 75th percentile) of 3.1 (2.0-4.3) years. Cox proportional hazard models for death and HF hospitalization adjusted for country income level; age; sex; education; HF aetiology; left ventricular ejection fraction; diabetes; tobacco and alcohol use; New York Heart Association functional class; HF medication use; blood pressure; and haemoglobin, sodium, and creatinine concentrations were performed. The incremental discriminatory value of frailty over and above the MAGGIC risk score was evaluated by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: At baseline, 18% of participants were robust, 61% pre-frail, and 21% frail. During follow-up, 565 (16%) participants died and 471 (14%) were hospitalized for HF. Respective adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for death among the pre-frail and frail were 1.59 (1.12-2.26) and 2.92 (1.99-4.27). Respective adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for HF hospitalization were 1.32 (0.93-1.87) and 1.97 (1.33-2.91). Findings were consistent among different country income levels and by most subgroups. Adding frailty to the MAGGIC risk score improved the discrimination of future death and HF hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Frailty confers substantial incremental prognostic information to prognostic variables for predicting death and HF hospitalization. The relationship between frailty and these outcomes is consistent across countries at all income levels.

Revisiting Race and the Benefit of RAS Blockade in Heart Failure: A Meta-Analysis of Randomized Clinical Trials.

Importance: Concerns have arisen that renin-angiotensin system (RAS) blockers are less effective in Black patients than non-Black patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Objective: To determine whether the effects of RAS blockers on cardiovascular outcomes differ between Black patients and non-Black patients with HFrEF. Data Sources: MEDLINE and Embase databases through December 31, 2023. Study Selection: Randomized trials investigating the effect of RAS blockers on cardiovascular outcomes in adults with HFrEF that enrolled Black and non-Black patients. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Individual-participant data were extracted following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses Independent Personal Data (PRISMA-IPD) reporting guidelines. Effects were estimated using a mixed-effects model using a 1-stage approach. Main Outcome and Measure: The primary outcome was first hospitalization for HF or cardiovascular death. Results: The primary analysis, based on the 3 placebo-controlled RAS inhibitor monotherapy trials, included 8825 patients (9.9% Black). Rates of death and hospitalization for HF were substantially higher in Black than non-Black patients. The hazard ratio (HR) for RAS blockade vs placebo for the primary composite was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.69-1.03) in Black patients and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.67-0.79) in non-Black patients (P for interaction = .14). The HR for first HF hospitalization was 0.89 (95% CI, 0.70-1.13) in Black patients and 0.62 (95% CI, 0.56-0.69) in non-Black patients (P for interaction = .006). Conversely, the corresponding HRs for cardiovascular death were 0.83 (95% CI, 0.65-1.07) and 0.84 (95% CI, 0.77-0.93), respectively (P for interaction = .99). For total hospitalizations for HF and cardiovascular deaths, the corresponding rate ratios were 0.82 (95% CI, 0.66-1.02) and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.66-0.80), respectively (P for interaction = .27). The supportive analyses including the 2 trials adding an angiotensin receptor blocker to background angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor treatment (n = 16 383) gave consistent findings. Conclusions and Relevance: The mortality benefit from RAS blockade was similar in Black and non-Black patients. Despite the smaller relative risk reduction in hospitalization for HF with RAS blockade in Black patients, the absolute benefit in Black patients was comparable with non-Black patients because of the greater incidence of this outcome in Black patients.

The Effects of Angiotensin Receptor-Neprilysin Inhibition on Major Coronary Events in Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction: Insights From the PARADISE-MI Trial.

BACKGROUND: In patients who survive an acute myocardial infarction (AMI), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors decrease the risk of subsequent major cardiovascular events. Whether angiotensin-receptor blockade and neprilysin inhibition with sacubitril/valsartan reduce major coronary events more effectively than angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors in high-risk patients with recent AMI remains unknown. We aimed to compare the effects of sacubitril/valsartan on coronary outcomes in patients with AMI. METHODS: We conducted a prespecified analysis of the PARADISE-MI trial (Prospective ARNI vs ACE Inhibitors Trial to Determine Superiority in Reducing Heart Failure Events After MI), which compared sacubitril/valsartan (97/103 mg twice daily) with ramipril (5 mg twice daily) for reducing heart failure events after myocardial infarction in 5661 patients with AMI complicated by left ventricular systolic dysfunction, pulmonary congestion, or both. In the present analysis, the prespecified composite coronary outcome was the first occurrence of death from coronary heart disease, nonfatal myocardial infarction, hospitalization for angina, or postrandomization coronary revascularization. RESULTS: Patients were randomly assigned at a median of 4.4 [3.0-5.8] days after index AMI (ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction 76%, non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction 24%), by which time 89% of patients had undergone coronary reperfusion. Compared with ramipril, sacubitril/valsartan decreased the risk of coronary outcomes (hazard ratio, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.74-0.99], P=0.04) over a median follow-up of 22 months. Rates of the components of the composite outcomes were lower in patients on sacubitril/valsartan but were not individually significantly different. CONCLUSIONS: In survivors of an AMI with left ventricular systolic dysfunction and pulmonary congestion, sacubitril/valsartan-compared with ramipril-reduced the risk of a prespecified major coronary composite outcome. Dedicated studies are necessary to confirm this finding and elucidate its mechanism. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT02924727.

Initial Invasive or Conservative Strategy for Stable Coronary Disease.

BACKGROUND: Among patients with stable coronary disease and moderate or severe ischemia, whether clinical outcomes are better in those who receive an invasive intervention plus medical therapy than in those who receive medical therapy alone is uncertain. METHODS: We randomly assigned 5179 patients with moderate or severe ischemia to an initial invasive strategy (angiography and revascularization when feasible) and medical therapy or to an initial conservative strategy of medical therapy alone and angiography if medical therapy failed. The primary outcome was a composite of death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, or hospitalization for unstable angina, heart failure, or resuscitated cardiac arrest. A key secondary outcome was death from cardiovascular causes or myocardial infarction. RESULTS: Over a median of 3.2 years, 318 primary outcome events occurred in the invasive-strategy group and 352 occurred in the conservative-strategy group. At 6 months, the cumulative event rate was 5.3% in the invasive-strategy group and 3.4% in the conservative-strategy group (difference, 1.9 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.8 to 3.0); at 5 years, the cumulative event rate was 16.4% and 18.2%, respectively (difference, -1.8 percentage points; 95% CI, -4.7 to 1.0). Results were similar with respect to the key secondary outcome. The incidence of the primary outcome was sensitive to the definition of myocardial infarction; a secondary analysis yielded more procedural myocardial infarctions of uncertain clinical importance. There were 145 deaths in the invasive-strategy group and 144 deaths in the conservative-strategy group (hazard ratio, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.32). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with stable coronary disease and moderate or severe ischemia, we did not find evidence that an initial invasive strategy, as compared with an initial conservative strategy, reduced the risk of ischemic cardiovascular events or death from any cause over a median of 3.2 years. The trial findings were sensitive to the definition of myocardial infarction that was used. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and others; ISCHEMIA ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01471522.).

Total events and net clinical benefit of rivaroxaban and aspirin in patients with chronic coronary or peripheral artery disease: The COMPASS trial.

BACKGROUND: Low dose rivaroxaban with aspirin reduced major cardiovascular events (MACE) compared to aspirin alone in patients with cardiovascular disease although effects on total events are unknown. METHODS: The COMPASS clinical trial randomized 27,395 participants with chronic coronary and/or peripheral artery disease to rivaroxaban 2.5 mg twice daily plus aspirin 100 mg daily, rivaroxaban 5 mg twice daily alone, or aspirin 100 mg daily. We analyzed total (first and recurrent) MACE outcomes of cardiovascular death, stroke, or myocardial infarction, and the primary safety outcome of major bleeding. Exploratory analyses included on-treatment and net clinical benefit. Total MACE and safety events were modeled for each treatment. RESULTS: MACE events were lowest in rivaroxaban with aspirin (379 first MACE, 432 total MACE) compared with rivaroxaban (448 first, 508 total) or aspirin alone (496 first, 574 total). Rivaroxaban and aspirin reduced total MACE events compared with aspirin alone [HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.66-0.85, P < .0001, number needed to treat for 2 years (NNT2y) of 63]. Total major bleeding was higher for rivaroxaban with aspirin compared to aspirin, but severe bleeding was not increased. The net clinical benefit of rivaroxaban plus aspirin was 20% higher compared with aspirin alone [HR 0.80 (95% CI 16.3%-31.6%)]. Rivaroxaban alone had no benefit on MACE outcomes compared with aspirin alone. MACE outcomes were similar for those on and off randomized treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Low dose rivaroxaban with aspirin significantly reduces first and total cardiovascular events compared with aspirin alone with a NNT2y of 63 and a 20% net clinical benefit. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01776424. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01776424.

AFA-Recur: an ESC EORP AFA-LT registry machine-learning web calculator predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence after ablation.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence during the first year after catheter ablation remains common. Patient-specific prediction of arrhythmic recurrence would improve patient selection, and, potentially, avoid futile interventions. Available prediction algorithms, however, achieve unsatisfactory performance. Aim of the present study was to derive from ESC-EHRA Atrial Fibrillation Ablation Long-Term Registry (AFA-LT) a machine-learning scoring system based on pre-procedural, easily accessible clinical variables to predict the probability of 1-year arrhythmic recurrence after catheter ablation. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients were randomly split into a training (80%) and a testing cohort (20%). Four different supervised machine-learning models (decision tree, random forest, AdaBoost, and k-nearest neighbour) were developed on the training cohort and hyperparameters were tuned using 10-fold cross validation. The model with the best discriminative performance on the testing cohort (area under the curve-AUC) was selected and underwent further optimization, including re-calibration. A total of 3128 patients were included. The random forest model showed the best performance on the testing cohort; a 19-variable version achieved good discriminative performance [AUC 0.721, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.680-0.764], outperforming existing scores (e.g. APPLE score: AUC 0.557, 95% CI 0.506-0.607). Platt scaling was used to calibrate the model. The final calibrated model was implemented in a web calculator, freely available at http://afarec.hpc4ai.unito.it/. CONCLUSION: AFA-Recur, a machine-learning-based probability score predicting 1-year risk of recurrent atrial arrhythmia after AF ablation, achieved good predictive performance, significantly better than currently available tools. The calculator, freely available online, allows patient-specific predictions, favouring tailored therapeutic approaches for the individual patient.

A methodology to assess the population size and estimate the needed resources for new licensed medications by combining clinical and administrative databases: The example of glycated haemoglobin in type 2 diabetes.

PURPOSE: To develop and validate a model to estimate glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) values in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) using a clinical data source, with the aim to apply this equation to administrative databases. METHODS: Using a primary care and administrative Italian databases, namely the Health Search database (HSD) and the ReS (Ricerca e Salute) database, we selected all patients aged 18 years or older on 31 December 2018 being diagnosed with T2DM and without prior prescription of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors. We included patients prescribed with and adherent to metformin. HSD was used to develop and test (using 2019 data as well) the algorithm imputing HbA1c values ≥7% according to a series of covariates. The algorithm was gathered by combining beta-coefficients being estimated by logistic regression models using complete case (excluding missing values) and imputed (after multiple imputation) dataset. The final algorithm was applied to ReS database using the same covariates. RESULTS: The tested algorithms were able to explain 17%-18% variation in assessing HbA1c values. Good discrimination (70%) and calibration were obtained as well. The best algorithm (three) cut-offs, namely those providing correct classifications ranging 66%-70% was therefore calculated and applied to ReS database. By doing so, from 52 999 (27.9, 95% CI: 27.7%-28.1%) to 74 250 (40.1%, 95% CI: 38.9%-39.3%) patients were estimated with HbA1c ≥7%. CONCLUSION: Through this methodology, healthcare authorities should be able to quantify the population eligible to a new licensed medication, such as SGLT-2 inhibitors, and to simulate scenarios to assess reimbursement criteria according to precise estimates.

Consensus document on Lipoprotein(a) from the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis (SISA).

AIMS: In view of the consolidating evidence on the causal role of Lp(a) in cardiovascular disease, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis (SISA) has assembled a consensus on Lp(a) genetics and epidemiology, together with recommendations for its measurement and current and emerging therapeutic approaches to reduce its plasma levels. Data on the Italian population are also provided. DATA SYNTHESIS: Lp(a) is constituted by one apo(a) molecule and a lipoprotein closely resembling to a low-density lipoprotein (LDL). Its similarity with an LDL, together with its ability to carry oxidized phospholipids are considered the two main features making Lp(a) harmful for cardiovascular health. Plasma Lp(a) concentrations vary over about 1000 folds in humans and are genetically determined, thus they are quite stable in any individual. Mendelian Randomization studies have suggested a causal role of Lp(a) in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and aortic valve stenosis and observational studies indicate a linear direct correlation between cardiovascular disease and Lp(a) plasma levels. Lp(a) measurement is strongly recommended once in a patient's lifetime, particularly in FH subjects, but also as part of the initial lipid screening to assess cardiovascular risk. The apo(a) size polymorphism represents a challenge for Lp(a) measurement in plasma, but new strategies are overcoming these difficulties. A reduction of Lp(a) levels can be currently attained only by plasma apheresis and, moderately, with PCSK9 inhibitor treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Awaiting the approval of selective Lp(a)-lowering drugs, an intensive management of the other risk factors for individuals with elevated Lp(a) levels is strongly recommended.