Death on the permafrost: Revisiting the 1918-20 influenza pandemic in Alaska using death certificates.

The 1918-20 influenza pandemic devastated Alaska's Indigenous populations. We report on quantitative analyses of pandemic deaths due to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) using information from Alaska death certificates dating between 1915 and 1921 (n=7,147). Goals include a reassessment of pandemic death numbers, analysis of P&I deaths beyond 1919, estimates of excess mortality patterns overall and by age using intercensal population estimates based on Alaska's demographic history, and comparisons between Alaska Native (AN) and non-AN residents. Results indicate that ANs experienced 83% of all P&I deaths and 87% of all-cause excess deaths during the pandemic. AN mortality was 8.1 times higher than non-AN mortality. Analyses also uncovered previously unknown mortality peaks in 1920. Both subpopulations showed characteristically high mortality of young adults, possibly due to imprinting with the 1889-90 pandemic virus, but their age-specific mortality patterns were different: non-AN mortality declined after age 25-29 and stayed relatively low for the elderly, while AN mortality increased after age 25-29, peaked at age 40-44, and remained high up to age 64. This suggests a relative lack of exposure to H1-type viruses pre-1889 among AN persons. In contrast, non-AN persons, often temporary residents, may have gained immunity before moving to Alaska.

Protocol for a systematic review to understand the long-term mental-health effects of influenza pandemics in the pre-COVID-19 era.

AIMS: This protocol describes a forthcoming systematic review of the question: 'What are the long-term effects of historical influenza pandemics on mental health, resulting either from illness itself or the social or economic effects of pandemics and public health responses?' METHODS: We will review studies that investigate associations between influenza pandemics and long-term mental-health impacts. Following the PICO framework, populations (P) may include those with and without pre-existing mental-health symptoms or conditions. Intervention (I) is exposure to an influenza pandemic during the study period encompassing five pandemics (1889-2009). Comparators or controls (C) are not applicable. The review will address outcomes (O) of mental-health morbidity from direct infection and/or related circumstances, including, for example, receiving a disability pension, institutionalisation and/or death. RESULTS: Due to societal disruptions, illness and bereavement during pandemics, many people are likely to be affected in myriad ways. Therefore, investigation into mental-health consequences should not be restricted by risk group or diagnosis. To our knowledge, this protocol and forthcoming systematic review are the first to include studies for broad populations and multiple measures of mental-health morbidity. The historical perspective and comparison of pandemics with varying severity but assumed similar causative pathogens also enable insights into the consistency of long-term consequences across pandemics. CONCLUSIONS: Pandemics likely produce long-term mental-health impacts with relevance for social, health and economic planning. The systematic review based on this protocol will complement other evidence on pandemic impacts and help policymakers incorporate relevant interventions.

A longitudinal cohort study on the use of health and care services by older adults living at home with/without dementia before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: the HUNT study.

BACKGROUND: Older adults and people with dementia were anticipated to be particularly unable to use health and care services during the lockdown period following the COVID-19 pandemic. To better prepare for future pandemics, we aimed to investigate whether the use of health and care services changed during the pandemic and whether those at older ages and/or dementia experienced a higher degree of change than that observed by their counterparts. METHODS: Data from the Norwegian Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT4 70 + , 2017-2019) were linked to two national health registries that have individual-level data on the use of primary and specialist health and care services. A multilevel mixed-effects linear regression model was used to calculate changes in the use of services from 18 months before the lockdown, (12 March 2020) to 18 months after the lockdown. RESULTS: The study sample included 10,607 participants, 54% were women and 11% had dementia. The mean age was 76 years (SD: 5.7, range: 68-102 years). A decrease in primary health and care service use, except for contact with general practitioners (GPs), was observed during the lockdown period for people with dementia (p < 0.001) and those aged ≥ 80 years without dementia (p = 0.006), compared to the 6-month period before the lockdown. The use of specialist health services decreased during the lockdown period for all groups (p ≤ 0.011), except for those aged < 80 years with dementia. Service use reached levels comparable to pre-pandemic data within one year after the lockdown. CONCLUSION: Older adults experienced an immediate reduction in the use of health and care services, other than GP contacts, during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Within primary care services, people with dementia demonstrated a more pronounced reduction than that observed in people without dementia; otherwise, the variations related to age and dementia status were small. Both groups returned to services levels similar to those during the pre-pandemic period within one year after the lockdown. The increase in GP contacts may indicate a need to reallocate resources to primary health services during future pandemics. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, with the identification number NCT04792086.

Historically High Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Switzerland, Sweden, and Spain.

BACKGROUND: Excess mortality quantifies the overall mortality impact of a pandemic. Mortality data have been accessible for many countries in recent decades, but few continuous data have been available for longer periods. OBJECTIVE: To assess the historical dimension of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 for 3 countries with reliable death count data over an uninterrupted span of more than 100 years. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: Switzerland, Sweden, and Spain, which were militarily neutral and not involved in combat during either world war and have not been affected by significant changes in their territory since the end of the 19th century. PARTICIPANTS: Complete populations of these 3 countries. MEASUREMENTS: Continuous series of recorded deaths (from all causes) by month from the earliest available year (1877 for Switzerland, 1851 for Sweden, and 1908 for Spain) were jointly modeled with annual age group-specific death and total population counts using negative binomial and multinomial models, which accounted for temporal trends and seasonal variability of prepandemic years. The aim was to estimate the expected number of deaths in a pandemic year for a nonpandemic scenario and the difference in observed and expected deaths aggregated over the year. RESULTS: In 2020, the number of excess deaths recorded per 100 000 persons was 100 (95% credible interval [CrI], 60 to 135) for Switzerland, 75 (CrI, 40 to 105) for Sweden, and 155 (CrI, 110 to 195) for Spain. In 1918, excess mortality was 6 to 7 times higher. In all 3 countries, the peaks of monthly excess mortality in 2020 were greater than most monthly excess mortality since 1918, including many peaks due to seasonal influenza and heat waves during that period. LIMITATION: Historical vital statistics might be affected by minor completeness issues before the beginning of the 20th century. CONCLUSION: In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic led to the second-largest infection-related mortality disaster in Switzerland, Sweden, and Spain since the beginning of the 20th century. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Foundation for Research in Science and the Humanities at the University of Zurich, Swiss National Science Foundation, and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Influenza risk groups in Norway by education and employment status.

AIMS: This study aimed to estimate the size of the risk group for severe influenza and to describe the social patterning of the influenza risk group in Norway, defined as everyone ⩾65 years of age and individuals of any age with certain chronic conditions (medical risk group). METHODS: Study data came from a nationally representative survey among 10,923 individuals aged 16-79 years. The medical risk group was defined as individuals reporting one or more relevant chronic conditions. The associations between educational attainment, employment status, age and risk of belonging to the medical risk group were studied with logistic regression. RESULTS: Nearly a fifth (19.0%) of respondents reported at least one chronic condition, while 29.4% belonged to the influenza risk group due to either age or chronic conditions. Being older, having a low educational level (comparing compulsory education to higher education, odds ratio (OR)=1.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-1.8 among women, and OR=1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.7 among men) and a weaker connection to working life (comparing disability pension to working full-time, OR=6.8, 95% CI 5.3-8.7 among women, and OR=6.5, 95% CI 4.9-8.5 among men) was associated with a higher risk of belonging to the medical risk group for severe influenza. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that the prevalence of medical risk factors for severe influenza is disproportionally distributed across the socio-economic spectrum in Norway. These results should influence both public funding decisions regarding influenza vaccination and communication strategies towards the public and health professionals.

Disparities in the offer of COVID-19 vaccination to migrants and non-migrants in Norway: a cross sectional survey study.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination is key to reducing the spread and impacts of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases. Migrants, compared to majority populations, tend to have lower vaccination rates, as well as higher infection disease burdens. Previous studies have tried to understand these disparities based on factors such as misinformation, vaccine hesitancy or medical mistrust. However, the necessary precondition of receiving, or recognizing receipt, of an offer to get a vaccine must also be considered. METHODS: We conducted a web-based survey in six parishes in Oslo that have a high proportion of migrant residents and were hard-hit during the COVID-19 pandemic. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to investigate differences in reporting being offered the COVID-19 vaccine based on migrant status. Different models controlling for vaccination prioritization variables (age, underlying health conditions, and health-related jobs), socioeconomic and demographic variables, and variables specific to migrant status (language spoken at home and years lived in Norway) were conducted. RESULTS: Responses from 5,442 participants (response rate of 9.1%) were included in analyses. The sample included 1,284 (23.6%) migrants. Fewer migrants than non-migrants reported receiving a vaccine offer (68.1% vs. 81.1%), and this difference was significant after controlling for prioritization variables (OR 0.65, 95% CI: 0.52-0.82). Subsequent models showed higher odds ratios for reporting having been offered the vaccine for females, and lower odds ratios for those with university education. There were few to no significant differences based on language spoken at home, or among birth countries compared to each other. Duration of residence emerged as an important explanatory variable, as migrants who had lived in Norway for fewer than 15 years were less likely to report offer of a vaccine. CONCLUSION: Results were consistent with studies that show disparities between non-migrants and migrants in actual vaccine uptake. While differences in receiving an offer cannot fully explain disparities in vaccination rates, our analyses suggest that receiving, or recognizing and understanding, an offer does play a role. Issues related to duration of residence, such as inclusion in population and health registries and health and digital literacy, should be addressed by policymakers and health services organizers.

Not the great equalizers: Covid-19, 1918-20 influenza, and the need for a paradigm shift in pandemic preparedness.

Despite common perceptions to the contrary, pandemic diseases do not affect populations indiscriminately. In this paper, we review literature produced by demographers, historians, epidemiologists, and other researchers on disparities during the 1918-20 influenza pandemic and the Covid-19 pandemic. Evidence from these studies demonstrates that lower socio-economic status and minority/stigmatized race or ethnicity are associated with higher morbidity and mortality. However, such research often lacks theoretical frameworks or appropriate data to explain the mechanisms underlying these disparities fully. We suggest using a framework that considers proximal and distal factors contributing to differential exposure, susceptibility, and consequences as one way to move this research forward. Further, current pandemic preparedness plans emphasize medically defined risk groups and epidemiological approaches. Therefore, we conclude by arguing in favour of a transdisciplinary paradigm that recognizes socially defined risk groups, includes input from the social sciences and humanities and other diverse perspectives, and contributes to the reduction of health disparities before a pandemic hits.

On the Willingness to Report and the Consequences of Reporting Research Misconduct: The Role of Power Relations.

While attention to research integrity has been growing over the past decades, the processes of signalling and denouncing cases of research misconduct remain largely unstudied. In this article, we develop a theoretically and empirically informed understanding of the causes and consequences of reporting research misconduct in terms of power relations. We study the reporting process based on a multinational survey at eight European universities (N = 1126). Using qualitative data that witnesses of research misconduct or of questionable research practices provided, we aim to examine actors' rationales for reporting and not reporting misconduct, how they report it and the perceived consequences of reporting. In particular we study how research seniority, the temporality of work appointments, and gender could impact the likelihood of cases being reported and of reporting leading to constructive organisational changes. Our findings suggest that these aspects of power relations play a role in the reporting of research misconduct. Our analysis contributes to a better understanding of research misconduct in an academic context. Specifically, we elucidate the processes that affect researchers' ability and willingness to report research misconduct, and the likelihood of universities taking action. Based on our findings, we outline specific propositions that future research can test as well as provide recommendations for policy improvement.

Short-Term Birth Sequelae of the 1918-1920 Influenza Pandemic in the United States: State-Level Analysis.

This paper examines short-term birth sequelae of the influenza pandemic of 1918-1920 in the United States using monthly data on births and all-cause deaths for 19 US states in conjunction with data on maternal deaths, stillbirths, and premature births. The data on births and all-cause deaths are adjusted for seasonal and trend effects, and the residual components of the 2 time series coinciding with the timing of peak influenza mortality are examined for these sequelae. Notable findings include: 1) a drop in births in the 3 months following peak mortality; 2) a reversion in births to normal levels occurring 5-7 months after peak mortality; and 3) a steep drop in births occurring 9-10 months after peak mortality. Interpreted in the context of parallel data showing elevated premature births, stillbirths, and maternal mortality during times of peak influenza mortality, these findings suggest that the main impacts of the 1918-1920 influenza on reproduction occurred through: 1) impaired conceptions, possibly due to effects on fertility and behavioral changes; 2) an increase in the preterm delivery rate during the peak of the pandemic; and 3) elevated maternal and fetal mortality, resulting in late-term losses in pregnancy.

Mortality in Norway and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-22: A comparative study.

BACKGROUND: Norway and Sweden picked two different ways to mitigate the dissemination of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Norway introduced the strictest lockdown in Europe with strict border controls and intense virus tracking of all local outbreaks while Sweden did not. That resulted in 477 COVID-19 deaths (Norway) and 9737 (Sweden) in 2020, respectively. METHODS: Weekly number of COVID-19 related deaths and total deaths for 2020-22 were collected as well as weekly number of deaths for 2015-19 which were used as controls when calculating excess mortality. During the first 12-18 months with high rate of virus transmission in the society, excess mortality rates were used as substitute for COVID-19 deaths. When excess mortality rates later turned negative because of mortality displacement, COVID-19 deaths adjusted for bias due to overreporting were used. RESULTS: There were 17521 COVID-19 deaths in Sweden and 4272 in Norway in the study period. The rate ratio (RR) of COVID-19 related deaths in Sweden vs. Norway to the end of week 43, 2022, was 2.11 (95% CI 2.05-2.19). RR of COVID-19 related deaths vs. excess number of deaths were 2.5 (Sweden) and 1.3 (Norway), respectively. RR of COVID-19 deaths in Sweden vs. Norway after adjusting for mortality displacement and lockdown, was 1.35 (95% CI 1.31-1.39), corresponding to saving 2025 life in Norway. If including all deaths in 2022, RR= 1.28 (95% CI 1.24-1.31). CONCLUSIONS: Both COVID-19 related mortality and excess mortality rates are biased estimates. When adjusting for bias, mortality differences declined over time to about 30% higher mortality in Sweden after 30 months with pandemics.

Higher educational attainment associated with higher confidence in influenza vaccination in Norway.

AIMS: To explore public confidence in influenza vaccination through the use of attitudinal indicators, and study whether educational attainment is related to attitudes towards influenza vaccination. METHODS: Confidence in influenza vaccination was measured with three questions adapted from the Vaccine Confidence Project. These questions have been included in four study years of a Norwegian nationally representative telephone survey that cover influenza seasons 2016/17, 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22. Over these four years, a total of 8 436 individuals aged 18-79 years responded to the survey and are included in the analysis. Risk differences (RDs) with 95 % confidence intervals were estimated using multivariable Poisson regression. RESULTS: Influenza vaccine confidence increased over time, with approximately 80 % of the general population expressing trust in the vaccine in the 2021/22 season. There was a tendency towards higher confidence in the oldest age group (65-79 years). Moreover, confidence increased with increasing educational attainment. The proportion of participants who agreed that influenza vaccine is compatible with their basic values was close to 20 percentage points lower among those with only compulsory education than among those with higher education at graduate level, RD = -18.4 % (95 % CI -21.4 % to -15.5 %). Educational attainment was consistently associated with influenza vaccine confidence in all seasons, among risk groups 18-64 years, and among health care workers. CONCLUSIONS: We observed an increase in confidence in influenza vaccination over the seasons examined in the study. However, the increase has not been equal in all groups and there is a clear educational gradient in influenza vaccine confidence. These findings indicate that despite efforts to increase influenza coverage over several years, the implemented measures have failed to reach all parts of the population.

The 1919-21 influenza pandemic in Greenland.

In Alaska, the 1918-20 influenza pandemic was devastating, with mortality rates up to 90% of the population, while in other arctic regions in northern Sweden and Norway mortality was considerably lower. We investigated the timing and age-patterns in excess mortality in Greenland during the period 1918-21 and compare these to other epidemics and the 1889-92 pandemic. We accessed the Greenlandic National Archives and transcribed all deaths from 1880 to 1921 by age, geography, and cause of death. We estimated monthly excess mortality and studied the spatial-temporal patterns of the pandemics and compared them to other mortality crises in the 40-year period. The 1918-21 influenza pandemic arrived in Greenland in the summer of 1919, one year delayed due to ship traffic interruptions during the winter months. We found that 5.2% of the Greenland population died of the pandemic with substantial variability between counties (range, 0.1% to 11%). We did not see the typical pandemic age-pattern of high young-adult mortality, possibly due to high baseline mortality in this age-group or remoteness. However, despite substantial mortality, the mortality impact was not standing out relative to other mortality crises, or of similar devastation reported in Alaskan populations.

Socioeconomic status and disparities in COVID-19 vaccine uptake in Eastern Oslo, Norway.

Objective: The objective of this study was to assess whether socioeconomic status still remain a barrier to COVID-19 vaccination in eastern Oslo, Norway. Study design: A cross-section study. Methods: We conducted a web-based survey among the residents of six eastern parishes in Oslo, Norway. Text (SMS) messages were sent to 59978 potential participants. 5447 surveys were completed for a response rate of 9.1%. After removing participants who had not been offered the COVID-19 vaccine, we ended up with a valid sample of 4000. Results: We find a significant association between education and the likelihood of taking the COVID-19 vaccine in bivariate logistic regression. Further, we find a significant higher likelihood of taking the vaccine in the above-low-income group compared to the low-income group. However, when we add control variables to the regression, the significant results concerning both income and education are eliminated. In further analysis, we found that age worked as a moderator between socioeconomic status and vaccine uptake: In the youngest age group (18-29), we found a significant higher likelihood of taking the vaccine in the above-low-income group compared to the low-income group, and in the higher education group compared to the primary education group. Conclusion: Socioeconomic status remains a barrier to COVID-19 vaccination in the eastern parishes of Oslo, Norway. Indicating that Norwegians of lower socioeconomic status still disproportionately face barriers such as transportation, language, flexible work hours, and paid sick time. However, our analysis shows that this association is only found in the age group 18-29.

Age-specific mortality and the role of living remotely: The 1918-20 influenza pandemic in Kautokeino and Karasjok, Norway.

The 1918-20 pandemic influenza killed 50-100 million people worldwide, but mortality varied by ethnicity and geography. In Norway, areas dominated by Sámi experienced 3-5 times higher mortality than the country's average. We here use data from burial registers and censuses to calculate all-cause excess mortality by age and wave in two remote Sámi areas of Norway 1918-20. We hypothesise that geographic isolation, less prior exposure to seasonal influenza, and thus less immunity led to higher Indigenous mortality and a different age distribution of mortality (higher mortality for all) than was typical for this pandemic in non-isolated majority populations (higher young adult mortality & sparing of the elderly). Our results show that in the fall of 1918 (Karasjok), winter of 1919 (Kautokeino), and winter of 1920 (Karasjok), young adults had the highest excess mortality, followed by also high excess mortality among the elderly and children. Children did not exhibit excess mortality in the second wave in Karasjok in 1920. It was not the young adults alone who produced the excess mortality in Kautokeino and Karasjok. We conclude that geographic isolation caused higher mortality among the elderly in the first and second waves, and among children in the first wave.

Social and demographic patterns of influenza vaccination coverage in Norway, influenza seasons 2014/15 to 2020/21.

AIMS: To examine influenza vaccination coverage among risk groups (RG) and health care workers (HCW), and study social and demographic patterns of vaccination coverage over time. METHODS: Vaccination coverage was estimated by self-report in a nationally representative telephone survey among 14919 individuals aged 18-79 years over seven influenza seasons from 2014/15 to 2020/21. We explored whether belonging to an influenza RG (being >=65 years of age and/or having >=1 medical risk factor), being a HCW or educational attainment was associated with vaccination status using logistic regression. RESULTS: Vaccination coverage increased from 27 % to 66 % among individuals 65-79 years, from 13 % to 33 % among individuals 18-64 years with >=1 risk factor, and from 9 % to 51 % among HCWs during the study period. Being older, having a risk factor or being a HCW were significantly associated with higher coverage in all multivariable logistic regression analyses. Higher education was also consistently associated with higher coverage, but the difference did not reach significance in all influenza seasons. Educational attainment was not significantly associated with coverage while coverage was at its lowest (2014/15-2017/18), but as coverage increased, so did the differences. Individuals with intermediate or lower education were less likely to report vaccination than those with higher education in season 2018/19, OR = 0.61 (95 % CI 0.46-0.80) and OR = 0.58 (95 % CI 0.41-0.83), respectively, and in season 2019/20, OR = 0.69 (95 % CI 0.55-0.88) and OR = 0.71 (95 % CI 0.53-0.95), respectively. When the vaccine was funded in the COVID-19 pandemic winter of 2020/21, educational differences diminished again and were no longer significant. CONCLUSIONS: We observed widening educational differences in influenza vaccination coverage as coverage increased from 2014/15 to 2019/20. When influenza vaccination was funded in 2020/21, differences in coverage by educational attainment diminished. These findings indicate that economic barriers influence influenza vaccination decisions among risk groups in Norway.