Model-based evaluation of the long-term cost-effectiveness of systematic case-finding for COPD in primary care.

INTRODUCTION: 'One-off' systematic case-finding for COPD using a respiratory screening questionnaire is more effective and cost-effective than routine care at identifying new cases. However, it is not known whether early diagnosis and treatment is beneficial in the longer term. We estimated the long-term cost-effectiveness of a regular case-finding programme in primary care. METHODS: A Markov decision analytic model was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of a 3-yearly systematic case-finding programme targeted to ever smokers aged ≥50 years with the current routine diagnostic process in UK primary care. Patient-level data on case-finding pathways was obtained from a large randomised controlled trial. Information on the natural history of COPD and treatment effects was obtained from a linked COPD cohort, UK primary care database and published literature. The discounted lifetime cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained was calculated from a health service perspective. RESULTS: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of systematic case-finding versus current care was £16 596 per additional QALY gained, with a 78% probability of cost-effectiveness at a £20 000 per QALY willingness-to-pay threshold. The base case result was robust to multiple one-way sensitivity analyses. The main drivers were response rate to the initial screening questionnaire and attendance rate for the confirmatory spirometry test. DISCUSSION: Regular systematic case-finding for COPD using a screening questionnaire in primary care is likely to be cost-effective in the long-term despite uncertainties in treatment effectiveness. Further knowledge of the natural history of case-found patients and the effectiveness of their management will improve confidence to implement such an approach.

TargetCOPD: a pragmatic randomised controlled trial of targeted case finding for COPD versus routine practice in primary care: protocol.

BACKGROUND: Many people with clinically significant chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remain undiagnosed worldwide. There are a number of small studies which have examined possible methods of case finding through primary care, but no large RCTs that have adequately assessed the most cost-effective approach. METHODS/DESIGN: In this study, using a cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) in 56 general practices in the West Midlands, we plan to investigate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a Targeted approach to case finding for COPD compared with routine practice. Using an individual patient RCT nested in the Targeted arm, we plan also to compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of Active case finding using a postal questionnaire (with supplementary opportunistic questionnaires), and Opportunistic-only case finding during routine surgery consultations.All ever-smoking patients aged 40-79 years, without a current diagnosis of COPD and registered with participating practices will be eligible. Patients in the Targeted arm who report positive respiratory symptoms (chronic cough or phlegm, wheeze or dyspnoea) using a brief questionnaire will be invited for further spirometric assessment to ascertain whether they have COPD or not. Post-bronchodilator spirometry will be conducted to ATS standards using an Easy One spirometer by trained research assistants.The primary outcomes will be new cases of COPD and cost per new case identified, comparing targeted case finding with routine care, and two types of targeted case finding (active versus opportunistic). A multilevel logistic regression model will be used to model the probability of detecting a new case of COPD for each treatment arm, with clustering of patients (by practice and household) accounted for using a multi-level structure.A trial-based analysis will be undertaken using costs and outcomes collected during the trial. Secondary outcomes include the feasibility, efficiency, long-term cost-effectiveness, patient and primary care staff views of each approach. DISCUSSION: This will be the largest RCT of its kind, and should inform how best to identify undiagnosed patients with COPD in the UK and other similar healthcare systems. Sensitivity analyses will help local policy-makers decide which sub-groups of the population to target first. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current controlled trials ISRCTN14930255.

Targeted case finding for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease versus routine practice in primary care (TargetCOPD): a cluster-randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Many individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remain undiagnosed worldwide. Health-care organisations are implementing case-finding programmes without good evidence of which are the most effective and cost-effective approaches. We assessed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of two alternative approaches to targeted case finding for COPD compared with routine practice. METHODS: In this cluster-randomised controlled trial, participating general practices in the West Midlands, UK, were randomly assigned (1:1), via a computer-generated block randomisation sequence, to either a targeted case-finding group or a routine care group. Eligible patients were ever-smokers aged 40-79 years without a previously recorded diagnosis of COPD. Patients in the targeted case-finding group were further randomly assigned (1:1) via their household to receive either a screening questionnaire at the general practitioner (GP) consultation (opportunistic) or a screening questionnaire at the GP consultation plus a mailed questionnaire (active). Respondents reporting relevant respiratory symptoms were invited for post-bronchodilator spirometry. Patients, clinicians, and investigators were not masked to allocation, but group allocation was concealed from the researchers who performed the spirometry assessments. Primary outcomes were the percentage of the eligible population diagnosed with COPD within 1 year (defined as post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s [FEV1] to forced vital capacity [FVC] ratio <0·7 in patients with symptoms or a new diagnosis on their GP record) and cost per new COPD diagnosis. Multiple logistic and Poisson regression were used to estimate effect sizes. Costs were obtained from the trial. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN14930255. FINDINGS: From Aug 10, 2012, to June 22, 2014, 74 818 eligible patients from 54 diverse general practices were randomly assigned and completed the trial. At 1 year, 1278 (4%) cases of COPD were newly detected in 32 789 eligible patients in the targeted case-finding group compared with 337 (1%) cases in 42 029 patients in the routine care group (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 7·45 [95% CI 4·80-11·55], p<0·0001). The percentage of newly detected COPD cases was higher in the active case-finding group (822 [5%] of 15 378) than in the opportunistic case-finding group (370 [2%] of 15 387; adjusted OR 2·34 [2·06-2·66], p<0·0001; adjusted risk difference 2·9 per 100 patients [95% CI 2·3-3·6], p<0·0001). Active case finding was more cost-effective than opportunistic case finding (£333 vs £376 per case detected, respectively). INTERPRETATION: In this well established primary care system, routine practice identified few new cases of COPD. An active targeted approach to case finding including mailed screening questionnaires before spirometry is a cost-effective way to identify undiagnosed patients and has the potential to improve their health. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research.

Multiple stable isotope (18O, 13C, 15N and 34S) analysis of human hair to identify the recent migrants in a rural community in SW England.

Relationships between recent migration and hair delta(18)O values were examined for 40 people living in a rural community in SW England. The isotopic contents of 35 'local' hair samples were compared with those of 5 recently arrived individuals (from Australia, Canada, Chile, Germany and the USA). The hair delta(18)O values of these 'visitors' were +7.9 (Omaha, USA), +11.2 (Jena, Germany), +12.1 (Osorno, Chile), +12.6 (Montreal, Canada) and +14.3 per thousand (Adelaide, Australia). The hair value for the USA visitor (+7.9 per thousand) fell outside the range for the 33 local adult residents, +10.5 to +14.3 per thousand (+12.7 +/- 0.8 per thousand). Hair delta(18)O values did not identify the individuals from Adelaide, Montreal and Osorno as 'visitors', but hair delta(13)C or delta(34)S data did. Combining the hair delta(18)O, delta(13)C and delta(34)S values using principal components analysis (two components explained 89% of the overall variation among the 40 subjects) helped to more clearly distinguish European from non-European individuals, indicating the existence of global overall isotope (geo-origin) relationships.