Comparative Cardiovascular Effectiveness of Empagliflozin Versus Dapagliflozin in Adults With Treated Type 2 Diabetes: A Target Trial Emulation.

BACKGROUND: Empagliflozin and dapagliflozin have proven cardiovascular benefits in people with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk, but their comparative effectiveness is unknown. METHODS: This study used nationwide, population-based Danish health registries to emulate a hypothetical target trial comparing empagliflozin versus dapagliflozin initiation, in addition to standard care, among people with treated type 2 diabetes from 2014 through 2020. The outcome was a composite of myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, heart failure (HF), or cardiovascular death (major adverse cardiovascular event). Participants were followed until an outcome, emigration, or death occurred; 6 years after initiation; or December 31, 2021, whichever occurred first. Logistic regression was used to compute inverse probability of treatment and censoring weights, controlling for 57 potential confounders. In intention-to-treat analyses, 6-year adjusted risks, risk differences, and risk ratios considering noncardiovascular death competing risks were estimated. Analyses were stratified by coexisting atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and HF. A per-protocol design was performed as a secondary analysis. RESULTS: There were 36 670 eligible empagliflozin and 20 606 eligible dapagliflozin initiators. In the intention-to-treat analysis, the adjusted 6-year absolute risk of major adverse cardiovascular event was not different between empagliflozin and dapagliflozin initiators (10.0% versus 10.0%; risk difference, 0.0% [95% CI, -0.9% to 1.0%]; risk ratio, 1.00 [95% CI, 0.91 to 1.11]). The findings were consistent in people with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (risk difference, -2.3% [95% CI, -8.2% to 3.5%]; risk ratio, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.74 to 1.14]) and without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (risk difference, 0.3% [95% CI, -0.6% to 1.2%]; risk ratio, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.93 to 1.16]) and in people with HF (risk difference, 1.1% [95% CI, -6.5% to 8.6%]; risk ratio, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.79 to 1.37]) and without HF (risk difference, -0.1% [95% CI, -1.0% to 0.8%]; risk ratio, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.90 to 1.09]). The 6-year risks of major adverse cardiovascular event were also not different in the per-protocol analysis (9.1% versus 8.8%; risk difference, 0.2% [95% CI, -2.1% to 2.5%]; risk ratio, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.80 to 1.32]). CONCLUSIONS: Empagliflozin and dapagliflozin initiators had no differences in 6-year cardiovascular outcomes in adults with treated type 2 diabetes with or without coexisting atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease or HF.

Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and risk of major adverse liver outcomes in patients with chronic liver disease and type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: Phase II trials suggest glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP1) agonists resolve metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis but do not affect fibrosis regression. We aimed to determine the long-term causal effect of GLP1 agonists on the risk of major adverse liver outcomes (MALO) in patients with any chronic liver disease and type 2 diabetes. DESIGN: We used observational data from Swedish healthcare registers 2010-2020 to emulate a target trial of GLP1 agonists in eligible patients with chronic liver disease and type 2 diabetes. We used an inverse-probability weighted marginal structural model to compare parametric estimates of 10-year MALO risk (decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation or MALO-related death) in initiators of GLP1 agonists with non-initiators. We randomly sampled 5% of the non-initiators to increase computational efficiency. RESULTS: GLP1 agonist initiators had a 10-year risk of MALO at 13.3% (42/1026) vs 14.6% in non-initiators (1079/15 633) in intention-to-treat analysis (risk ratio (RR)=0.91, 95% CI=0.50 to 1.32). The corresponding 10-year per-protocol risk estimates were 7.4% (22/1026) and 14.4% (1079/15 633), respectively (RR=0.51, 95% CI=0.14 to 0.88). The per-protocol risk estimates at 6 years were 5.4% (21/1026) vs 9.0% (933/15 633) (RR=0.60, 95% CI=0.29 to 0.90) and at 8 years 7.2% (22/1026) vs 11.7% (1036/15 633) (RR=0.61, 95% CI=0.21 to 1.01). CONCLUSION: In patients with chronic liver disease and type 2 diabetes who adhered to therapy over time, GLP1 agonists may result in lower risk of MALO. This suggests that GLP1 agonists are promising agents to reduce risk of chronic liver disease progression in patients with concurrent type 2 diabetes, although this needs to be corroborated in randomised trials.

Identifying target populations to align with decision makers' needs.

Randomized trials estimate the average treatment effect within individuals that are eligible, invited and agree to enroll. However, decision makers often require evidence that extends beyond the trial's enrolled population to inform policy or actions for their specific target population. Each decision maker has distinct target populations, the composition of which may not often align with that of the trial population. As researchers, we should identify a decision maker for whom we aim to generate evidence early in the research process. We can then specify a target population of their interest and determine if a policy or action can be informed using results from a trial alone, or if additional complementary real-world data and analysis are required. In this commentary, we outline five key groupings of decision makers: policymakers, payers, purchasers, providers, and patients. We then specify relevant target populations for decision makers interested in the effectiveness of beta-blockers following a myocardial infarction with preserved ejection fraction. Finally, we summarize the scenarios in which results from a randomized trial may or may not apply to these target populations and suggest relevant analytic approaches that can generate evidence to better align with a decision makers' needs.

Prospective benchmarking of an observational analysis in the SWEDEHEART registry against the REDUCE-AMI randomized trial.

Prospective benchmarking of an observational analysis against a randomized trial increases confidence in the benchmarking process as it relies exclusively on aligning the protocol of the trial and the observational analysis, while the trials findings are unavailable. The Randomized Evaluation of Decreased Usage of Betablockers After Myocardial Infarction (REDUCE-AMI, ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT03278509) trial started recruitment in September 2017 and results are expected in 2024. REDUCE-AMI aimed to estimate the effect of long-term use of beta blockers on the risk of death and myocardial following a myocardial infarction with preserved left ventricular systolic ejection fraction. We specified the protocol of a target trial as similar as possible to that of REDUCE-AMI, then emulated the target trial using observational data from Swedish healthcare registries. Had everyone followed the treatment strategy as specified in the target trial protocol, the observational analysis estimated a reduction in the 5-year risk of death or myocardial infarction of 0.8 percentage points for beta blockers compared with no beta blockers; effects ranging from an absolute reduction of 4.5 percentage points to an increase of 2.8 percentage points in the risk of death or myocardial infarction were compatible with our data under conventional statistical criteria. Once results of REDUCE-AMI are published, we will compare the results of our observational analysis against those from the trial. If this prospective benchmarking is successful, it supports the credibility of additional analyses using these observational data, which can rapidly deliver answers to questions that could not be answered by the initial trial. If benchmarking proves unsuccessful, we will conduct a "postmortem" analysis to identify the reasons for the discrepancy. Prospective benchmarking shifts the investigator focus away from an endeavour to use observational data to obtain similar results as a completed randomized trial, to a systematic attempt to align the design and analysis of the trial and the observational analysis.

Frailty Among Breast Cancer Survivors: Evidence From Swedish Population Data.

Incidence and survival of breast cancer, the most common cancer among women, have been increasing, leaving survivors at risk of aging-related health conditions. In this matched cohort study, we examined frailty risk with the Hospital Frailty Risk Score among breast cancer survivors (n = 34,900) and age-matched comparison subjects (n = 290,063). Women born in 1935-1975, registered in the Swedish Total Population Register (1991-2015), were eligible for inclusion. Survivors had a first breast cancer diagnosis in 1991-2005 and survived ≥5 years after initial diagnosis. Death date was determined by linkage to the National Cause of Death Registry (through 2015). Cancer survivorship was weakly associated with frailty (subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) = 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00, 1.07). In age-stratified models, those diagnosed at younger ages (<50 years) had higher risk of frailty (SHR = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.24) than those diagnosed at ages 50-65 (SHR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.98, 1.07) or >65 (SHR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.17) years. Additionally, there was increased risk of frailty for diagnoses in 2000 or later (SHR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.21) compared with before 2000 (SHR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.93, 1.17). This supports work from smaller samples showing that breast cancer survivors have increased frailty risk, particularly when diagnosed at younger ages.

Using Trial and Observational Data to Assess Effectiveness: Trial Emulation, Transportability, Benchmarking, and Joint Analysis.

Comparisons between randomized trial analyses and observational analyses that attempt to address similar research questions have generated many controversies in epidemiology and the social sciences. There has been little consensus on when such comparisons are reasonable, what their implications are for the validity of observational analyses, or whether trial and observational analyses can be integrated to address effectiveness questions. Here, we consider methods for using observational analyses to complement trial analyses when assessing treatment effectiveness. First, we review the framework for designing observational analyses that emulate target trials and present an evidence map of its recent applications. We then review approaches for estimating the average treatment effect in the target population underlying the emulation: using observational analyses of the emulation data alone; and using transportability analyses to extend inferences from a trial to the target population. We explain how comparing treatment effect estimates from the emulation against those from the trial can provide evidence on whether observational analyses can be trusted to deliver valid estimates of effectiveness - a process we refer to as benchmarking - and, in some cases, allow the joint analysis of the trial and observational data. We illustrate different approaches using a simplified example of a pragmatic trial and its emulation in registry data. We conclude that synthesizing trial and observational data - in transportability, benchmarking, or joint analyses - can leverage their complementary strengths to enhance learning about comparative effectiveness, through a process combining quantitative methods and epidemiological judgements.

Benchmarking Observational Analyses Before Using Them to Address Questions Trials Do Not Answer: An Application to Coronary Thrombus Aspiration.

To increase confidence in the use of observational analyses when addressing effectiveness questions beyond those addressed by randomized trials, one can first benchmark the observational analyses against existing trial results. We used Swedish registry data to emulate a target trial similar to the Thrombus Aspiration in ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction in Scandinavia (TASTE) randomized trial, which found no difference in the risk of death or myocardial infarction by 1 year with or without thrombus aspiration among individuals with ST-elevation myocardial infarction. We benchmarked the emulation against the trial at 1 year and then extended the emulation's follow-up to 3 years and estimated effects in subpopulations underrepresented in the trial. As in the TASTE trial, the observational analysis found no differences in risk of outcomes by 1 year between groups (risk difference = 0.7 (confidence interval, -0.7, 2.0) and -0.2 (confidence interval, -1.3, 1.0) for death and myocardial infarction, respectively), so benchmarking was considered successful. We additionally showed no difference in risk of death or myocardial infarction by 3 years, or within subpopulations by 1 year. Benchmarking against an index trial before using observational analyses to answer questions beyond those the trial could address allowed us to explore whether the observational data can be trusted to deliver valid estimates of treatment effects.

Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases Among Older Breast Cancer Survivors in the United States: A Matched Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that cardiovascular risks are increased in breast cancer survivors, but few studies have quantified the risks of a range of specific clinically important cardiovascular outcomes in detail. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Women aged >65 years with incident breast cancer from 2004 to 2013 in the SEER-Medicare linked database were matched with 5 cancer-free female counterparts (5:1 ratio). Prevalence of specific cardiovascular outcomes at baseline was measured, then Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals for the risk of individual cardiovascular outcomes during follow-up. Modification of the effect was investigated by time since diagnosis, race/ethnicity, prior cardiovascular disease (CVD), and age. RESULTS: In all, 91,473 women with breast cancer and 454,197 without breast cancer were included. Women with breast cancer had lower baseline prevalence of all CVDs. Compared with cancer-free controls, breast cancer survivors had substantially increased risks of deep vein thrombosis (adjusted HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.62-1.73; 386,484 person-years of follow-up) and pericarditis (HR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.38-1.49; 390,776 person-years of follow-up); evidence of smaller increased risks of sudden cardiac arrest, arrhythmia, heart failure, and valvular heart disease (adjusted HRs ranging from 1.05-1.09, lower CI limits all ≥1); and evidence of lower risk of incident angina, myocardial infarction, revascularization, peripheral vascular disease, and stroke (adjusted HRs ranging from 0.89-0.98, upper CI limits all ≤1). Increased risks of arrhythmia, heart failure, pericarditis, and deep vein thrombosis persisted >5 years after cancer diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Women with a history of breast cancer were at increased risk of several CVDs, persisting into survivorship. Monitoring and managing cardiovascular risk throughout the long-term follow-up of women diagnosed with breast cancer should be a priority.

Medium and long-term risks of specific cardiovascular diseases in survivors of 20 adult cancers: a population-based cohort study using multiple linked UK electronic health records databases.

BACKGROUND: The past few decades have seen substantial improvements in cancer survival, but concerns exist about long-term cardiovascular disease risk in survivors. Evidence is scarce on the risks of specific cardiovascular diseases in survivors of a wide range of cancers to inform prevention and management. In this study, we used large-scale electronic health records data from multiple linked UK databases to address these evidence gaps. METHODS: For this population-based cohort study, we used linked primary care, hospital, and cancer registry data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink to identify cohorts of survivors of the 20 most common cancers who were 18 years or older and alive 12 months after diagnosis and controls without history of cancer, matched for age, sex, and general practice. We compared risks for a range of cardiovascular disease outcomes using crude and adjusted Cox models. We fitted interactions to investigate effect modification, and flexible parametric survival models to estimate absolute excess risks over time. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 1990, and Dec 31, 2015, 126 120 individuals with a diagnosis of a cancer of interest still being followed up at least 1 year later were identified and matched to 630 144 controls. After exclusions, 108 215 cancer survivors and 523 541 controls were included in the main analyses. Venous thromboembolism risk was elevated in survivors of 18 of 20 site-specific cancers compared with that of controls; adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) ranged from 1·72 (95% CI 1·57-1·89) in patients after prostate cancer to 9·72 (5·50-17·18) after pancreatic cancer. HRs decreased over time, but remained elevated more than 5 years after diagnosis. We observed increased risks of heart failure or cardiomyopathy in patients after ten of 20 cancers, including haematological (adjusted HR 1·94, 1·66-2·25, with non-Hodgkin lymphoma; 1·77, 1·50-2·09, with leukaemia; and 3·29, 2·59-4·18, with multiple myeloma), oesophageal (1·96, 1·46-2·64), lung (1·82, 1·52-2·17) kidney (1·73, 1·38-2·17) and ovarian (1·59, 1·19-2·12). Elevated risks of arrhythmia, pericarditis, coronary artery disease, stroke, and valvular heart disease were also observed for multiple cancers, including haematological malignancies. HRs for heart failure or cardiomyopathy and venous thromboembolism were greater in patients without previous cardiovascular disease and in younger patients. However, absolute excess risks were generally greater with increasing age. Increased risks of these outcomes seemed most pronounced in patients who had received chemotherapy. INTERPRETATION: Survivors of most site-specific cancers had increased medium-term to long-term risk for one or more cardiovascular diseases compared with that for the general population, with substantial variations between cancer sites. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust and Royal Society.

Obesity is a risk factor for acute promyelocytic leukemia: evidence from population and cross-sectional studies and correlation with FLT3 mutations and polyunsaturated fatty acid metabolism.

Obesity correlates with hematologic malignancies including leukemias, but risk of specific leukemia subtypes like acute promyelocytic leukemia and underlying molecular mechanisms are poorly understood. We explored multiple datasets for correlation between leukemia, body mass index (BMI) and molecular features. In a population-based study (n=5.2 million), we correlated BMI with promyelocytic leukemia, and other acute myeloid, lymphoid or other leukemias. In cross-sectional studies, we tested BMI deviation in promyelocytic leukemia trial cohorts from that expected based on national surveys. We explored The Cancer Genome Atlas for transcriptional signatures and mutations enriched in promyelocytic leukemia and/or obesity, and confirmed a correlation between body mass and FLT3 mutations in promyelocytic leukemia cohorts by logistic regression. In the population-based study, hazard ratio per 5 kg/m2 increase was: promyelocytic leukemia 1.44 (95%CI: 1.0-2.08), non-promyelocytic acute myeloid leukemias 1.17 (95%CI: 1.10-1.26), lymphoid leukemias 1.04 (95%CI: 1.0-1.09), other 1.10 (95%CI: 1.04-1.15). In cross-sectional studies, body mass deviated significantly from that expected (Italy: P<0.001; Spain: P=0.011; USA: P<0.001). Promyelocytic leukemia showed upregulation of polyunsaturated fatty acid metabolism genes. Odds of FLT3 mutations were higher in obese acute myeloid leukemias (odds ratio=2.4, P=0.007), whether promyelocytic or not, a correlation confirmed in the pooled promyelocytic leukemia cohorts (OR=1.22, 1.05-1.43 per 5 kg/m2). These results strengthen the evidence for obesity as a bona fide risk factor for myeloid leukemias, and in particular APL. FLT3 mutations and polyunsaturated fatty acid metabolism may play a previously under-appreciated role in obesity-associated leukemogenesis.

Burden and prevalence of prognostic factors for severe COVID-19 in Sweden.

The World Health Organization and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control suggest that individuals over the age of 70 years or with underlying cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, or diabetes are at increased risk of severe COVID-19. However, the prevalence of these prognostic factors is unknown in many countries. We aimed to describe the burden and prevalence of prognostic factors of severe COVID-19 at national and county level in Sweden. We calculated the burden and prevalence of prognostic factors for severe COVID-19 based on records from the Swedish national health care and population registers for 3 years before 1st January 2016. 9,624,428 individuals were included in the study population. 22.1% had at least one prognostic factor for severe COVID-19 (2,131,319 individuals), and 1.6% had at least three factors (154,746 individuals). The prevalence of underlying medical conditions ranged from 0.8% with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (78,516 individuals) to 7.4% with cardiovascular disease (708,090 individuals), and the county specific prevalence of at least one prognostic factor ranged from 19.2% in Stockholm (416,988 individuals) to 25.9% in Kalmar (60,005 individuals). We show that one in five individuals in Sweden is at increased risk of severe COVID-19. When compared with the critical care capacity at a local and national level, these results can aid authorities in optimally planning healthcare resources during the current pandemic. Findings can also be applied to underlying assumptions of disease burden in modelling efforts to support COVID-19 planning.

Statin use in cancer survivors versus the general population: cohort study using primary care data from the UK clinical practice research datalink.

BACKGROUND: Cancer survivors may be at increased risk of cardiovascular diseases, but little is known about whether prescribing guidelines for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease are adequately implemented in these patients. We compared levels of statin initiation and cessation among cancer survivors compared to the general population to determine differences in uptake of pharmaceutical cardiovascular risk prevention measures in these groups. METHODS: The study population included individuals aged ≥40 during 2005-13 within the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink primary care database. Within this population we identified cancer survivors who were alive and under follow-up at least 1 year after diagnosis, and controls with no cancer history. Follow-up time prior to cancer diagnosis was included in the control cohort. Using logistic regression, we compared these groups with respect to uptake of statins within 1 month of a first high recorded cardiovascular risk score. Then, we used Cox modelling to compare persistence on statin therapy (time to statin cessation) between cancer survivors and controls from the main study population who had initiated on a statin. RESULTS: Among 4202 cancer survivors and 113,035 controls with a record indicating a high cardiovascular risk score, 23.0% and 23.5% respectively initiated a statin within 1 month (adjusted odds ratio 0.98 [91.8-1.05], p = 0.626). Cancer survivors appeared more likely to discontinue statin treatment than controls (adjusted hazard ratio 1.07 [1.01-1.12], p = 0.02). This greater risk of discontinuing was only evident after the first year of therapy (p-interaction < 0.001). INTERPRETATION: Although cardiovascular risk is thought to be higher in cancer survivors compared to the general population, cancer survivors were no more likely to receive statins, and marginally more likely to cease long-term therapy, than general population controls. There may be an opportunity to mitigate the suspected higher cardiovascular risk in the growing population of cancer survivors by improving uptake of lipid-lowering treatment and persistence on therapy.

A Novel Serpin Regulatory Mechanism: SerpinB9 IS REVERSIBLY INHIBITED BY VICINAL DISULFIDE BOND FORMATION IN THE REACTIVE CENTER LOOP.

The intracellular protease inhibitor Sb9 (SerpinB9) is a regulator of the cytotoxic lymphocyte protease GzmB (granzyme B). Although GzmB is primarily involved in the destruction of compromised cells, recent evidence suggests that it is also involved in lysosome-mediated death of the cytotoxic lymphocyte itself. Sb9 protects the cell from GzmB released from lysosomes into the cytosol. Here we show that reactive oxygen species (ROS) generated within cytotoxic lymphocytes by receptor stimulation are required for lyososomal permeabilization and release of GzmB into the cytosol. Importantly, ROS also inactivate Sb9 by oxidizing a highly conserved cysteine pair (P1-P1' in rodents and P1'-P2' in other mammals) in the reactive center loop to form a vicinal disulfide bond. Replacement of the P4-P3' reactive center loop residues of the prototype serpin, SERPINA1, with the P4-P5' residues of Sb9 containing the cysteine pair is sufficient to convert SERPINA1 into a ROS-sensitive GzmB inhibitor. Conversion of the cysteine pair to serines in either human or mouse Sb9 results in a functional serpin that inhibits GzmB and resists ROS inactivation. We conclude that ROS sensitivity of Sb9 allows the threshold for GzmB-mediated suicide to be lowered, as part of a conserved post-translational homeostatic mechanism regulating lymphocyte numbers or activity. It follows, for example, that antioxidants may improve NK cell viability in adoptive immunotherapy applications by stabilizing Sb9.

Phosphodiesterase Type 5 Inhibitors and Risk of Malignant Melanoma: Matched Cohort Study Using Primary Care Data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

BACKGROUND: Laboratory evidence suggests that reduced phosphodiesterase type 5 (PDE5) expression increases the invasiveness of melanoma cells; hence, pharmacological inhibition of PDE5 could affect melanoma risk. Two major epidemiological studies have investigated this and come to differing conclusions. We therefore aimed to investigate whether PDE5 inhibitor use is associated with an increased risk of malignant melanoma, and whether any increase in risk is likely to represent a causal relationship. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a matched cohort study using primary care data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. All men initiating a PDE5 inhibitor and with no prior cancer diagnosis were identified and matched on age, diabetes status, and general practice to up to four unexposed controls. Ever use of a PDE5 inhibitor and time-updated cumulative number of PDE5 inhibitor prescriptions were investigated as exposures, and the primary outcome was malignant melanoma. Basal cell carcinoma, solar keratosis, and colorectal cancer were investigated as negative control outcomes to exclude bias. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated from Cox models stratified by matched set and adjusted for potential confounders. 145,104 men with ≥1 PDE5 inhibitor prescription, and 560,933 unexposed matched controls were included. In total, 1,315 incident malignant melanoma diagnoses were observed during 3.44 million person-years of follow-up (mean 4.9 y per person). After adjusting for potential confounders, there was weak evidence of a small positive association between PDE5 inhibitor use and melanoma risk (HR = 1.14, 95% CI 1.01-1.29, p = 0.04). A similar increase in risk was seen for the two negative control outcomes related to sun exposure (HR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.11-1.19, p < 0.001, for basal cell carcinoma; HR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.17-1.25, p < 0.001, for solar keratosis), but there was no increased risk for colorectal cancer (HR = 0.91, 95% CI 0.85-0.98, p = 0.01). There was no evidence that risk increased with number of prescriptions received (p-trend = 0.83). In a post hoc analysis, there was strong evidence that solar keratosis was associated with future PDE5 inhibitor use (odds ratio = 1.28, 95% CI 1.23-1.34, p < 0.001), suggesting that men with higher sun exposure were more likely to become PDE5 inhibitor users. However, a limitation of our study was that we did not have individual-level data on sun exposure, so we could not directly control for this in the primary analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our results were not consistent with PDE5 inhibitors being causally associated with melanoma risk, and strongly suggest that observed risk increases are driven by greater sun exposure among patients exposed to a PDE5 inhibitor.

Comparative Effectiveness of Switching to Bictegravir From Dolutegravir-, Efavirenz-, or Raltegravir-Based Antiretroviral Therapy Among Individuals With HIV Who are Virologically Suppressed.

Background: We aimed to determine the effectiveness of switching to bictegravir in maintaining an undetectable viral load (<50 copies/mL) among people with HIV (PWH) as compared with continuing dolutegravir-, efavirenz-, or raltegravir-based antiretroviral therapy using nationwide observational data from Mexico. Methods: We emulated 3 target trials comparing switching to bictegravir vs continuing with dolutegravir, efavirenz, or raltegravir. Eligibility criteria were PWH aged ≥16 years with a viral load <50 copies/mL and at least 3 months of current antiretroviral therapy (dolutegravir, efavirenz, or raltegravir) between July 2019 and September 2021. Weekly target trials were emulated during the study period, and individuals were included in every emulation if they continued to be eligible. The main outcome was the probability of an undetectable viral load at 3 months, which was estimated via an adjusted logistic regression model. Estimated probabilities were compared via differences, and 95% CIs were calculated via bootstrap. Outcomes were also ascertained at 12 months, and sensitivity analyses were performed to test our analytic choices. Results: We analyzed data from 3 028 619 PWH (63 581 unique individuals). The probability of an undetectable viral load at 3 months was 2.9% (95% CI, 1.9%-3.8%), 1.3% (95% CI, .9%-1.6%), and 1.2% (95% CI, .8%-1.7%) higher when switching to bictegravir vs continuing with dolutegravir, efavirenz, and raltegravir, respectively. Similar results were observed at 12 months and in other sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that switching to bictegravir could be more effective in maintaining viral suppression than continuing with dolutegravir, efavirenz, or raltegravir.

Antidepressant Use and Risk of Manic Episodes in Children and Adolescents With Unipolar Depression.

Importance: Antidepressants are increasingly prescribed to pediatric patients with unipolar depression, but little is known about the risk of treatment-emergent mania. Previous research suggests pediatric patients may be particularly vulnerable to this adverse outcome. Objective: To estimate whether pediatric patients treated with antidepressants have an increased incidence of mania/hypomania compared with patients not treated with antidepressants and to identify patient characteristics associated with the risk of mania/hypomania. Design, Setting, and Participants: In a cohort study applying the target trial emulation framework, nationwide inpatient and outpatient care in Sweden from July 1, 2006, to December 31, 2019, was evaluated. Follow-up was conducted for 12 and 52 weeks after treatment initiation, with administrative follow-up ending December 31, 2020. Data were analyzed between May 1, 2022, and June 28, 2023. Individuals aged 4 to 17 years with a diagnosis of depression, but without a prior diagnosis of mania/hypomania, bipolar disorder, or psychosis or treatment with mood stabilizer (lithium, valproate, or carbamazepine), prescriptions were included. Exposures: The treatment group included patients who initiated any antidepressant medication within 90 days of diagnosis. The control group included patients who did not initiate antidepressants within 90 days. Main Outcomes and Measures: Diagnosis of mania/hypomania or initiation of mood stabilizer therapy. Incidences were estimated with Kaplan-Meier estimator, and inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to adjust for group differences at baseline. Results: The cohort included 43 677 patients (28 885 [66%] girls); 24 573 in the treatment group and 19 104 in the control group. The median age was 15 (IQR, 14-16) years. The outcome occurred in 96 individuals by 12 weeks and in 291 by 52 weeks. The cumulative incidence of mania was 0.26% (95% CI, 0.19%-0.33%) in the treatment group and 0.20% (95% CI, 0.13%-0.27%) in the control group at 12 weeks, with a risk difference of 0.06% (95% CI, -0.04% to 0.16%). At 52 weeks, the cumulative incidence was 0.79% (95% CI, 0.68%-0.91%) in the treatment group and 0.52% (95% CI, 0.40%-0.63%) in the control group (risk difference, 0.28%; 95% CI, 0.12%-0.44%). Hospitalizations, parental bipolar disorder, and use of antipsychotics and antiepileptics were the most important predictors of mania/hypomania by 12 weeks. Conclusion: This cohort study found no evidence of treatment-emergent mania/hypomania by 12 weeks in children and adolescents. This corresponds to the time frame for antidepressants to exert their psychotropic effect. A small risk difference was found only with longer follow-up. Certain patient characteristics were associated with mania/hypomania, which warrants clinical attention.

Effect of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor treatment following diagnosis of depression on suicidal behaviour risk: a target trial emulation.

There is concern regarding the impact of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) on suicidal behaviour. Using the target trial framework, we investigated the effect on suicidal behaviour of SSRI treatment following a depression diagnosis. We identified 162,267 individuals receiving a depression diagnosis aged 6-59 years during 2006-2018 in Stockholm County, Sweden, after at least 1 year without antidepressant dispensation. Individuals who initiated an SSRI within 28 days of the diagnosis were assigned as SSRI initiators, others as non-initiators. Intention-to-treat and per-protocol effects were estimated; for the latter, individuals were censored when they ceased adhering to their assigned treatment strategy. We applied inverse probability weighting (IPW) to account for baseline confounding in the intention-to-treat analysis, and additionally for treatment non-adherence and time-varying confounding in the per-protocol analysis. The suicidal behaviour risk difference (RD), and risk ratio (RR) between SSRI initiators and non-initiators were estimated at 12 weeks. In the overall cohort, we found an increased risk of suicidal behaviour among SSRI initiators (intention-to-treat RR = 1.50, 95% CI = 1.25, 1.80; per-protocol RR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.20, 2.36). In age strata, we only found evidence of an increased risk among individuals under age 25, with the greatest risk among 6-17-year-olds (intention-to-treat RR = 2.90, 95% CI = 1.72, 4.91; per-protocol RR = 3.34, 95% CI = 1.59, 7.00). Our finding of an increased suicidal behaviour risk among individuals under age 25 reflects evidence from RCTs. We found no evidence of an effect in the high-risk group of individuals with past suicidal behaviour. Further studies with information on a wider array of confounders are called for.

Causal effect of shifting from precarious to standard employment on all-cause mortality in Sweden: an emulation of a target trial.

BACKGROUND: We aimed at estimating the causal effect of switching from precarious to standard employment on the 6-year and 12-year risk of all-cause mortality among workers aged 20-55 years in Sweden. METHODS: We emulated a series of 12 target trials starting every year between 2005 and 2016 using Swedish register data (n=251 273). We classified precariously employed individuals using a multidimensional approach at baseline as (1) remaining in precarious employment (PE) (73.8%) and (2) shifting to standard employment (26.2%). All-cause mortality was measured from 2006 to 2017. We pooled data for all 12 emulated trials and used covariate-adjusted pooled logistic regression to estimate intention-to-treat and per-protocol effects via risk ratios (RRs) and standardised risk curves (the parametric g-formula). RESULTS: Shifting from precarious to standard employment decreases the 12-year risk of death by 20% on the relative scale (RR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.73; 0.93), regardless of what happens after the initial shift. However, we estimated a 12-year risk reduction of 30% on the relative scale for workers shifting from precarious to standard employment and staying within this employment category for the full 12 years (RR: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.54; 0.95). CONCLUSIONS: This study finds that shifting from low to higher-quality employment conditions (ie, stable employment, sufficient income levels and high coverage by collective agreements) decreases the risk of death. Remaining in PE increases the risk of premature mortality. Our results emphasise the necessity of ensuring decent work for the entire working population to accomplish the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Living alone and mental health: parallel analyses in UK longitudinal population surveys and electronic health records prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: People who live alone experience greater levels of mental illness; however, it is unclear whether the COVID-19 pandemic had a disproportionately negative impact on this demographic. OBJECTIVE: To describe the mental health gap between those who live alone and with others in the UK prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Self-reported psychological distress and life satisfaction in 10 prospective longitudinal population surveys (LPSs) assessed in the nearest pre-pandemic sweep and three periods during the pandemic. Recorded diagnosis of common and severe mental illnesses between March 2018 and January 2022 in electronic healthcare records (EHRs) within the OpenSAFELY-TPP. FINDINGS: In 37 544 LPS participants, pooled models showed greater psychological distress (standardised mean difference (SMD): 0.09 (95% CI: 0.04; 0.14); relative risk: 1.25 (95% CI: 1.12; 1.39)) and lower life satisfaction (SMD: -0.22 (95% CI: -0.30; -0.15)) for those living alone pre-pandemic. This gap did not change during the pandemic. In the EHR analysis of c.16 million records, mental health conditions were more common in those who lived alone (eg, depression 26 (95% CI: 18 to 33) and severe mental illness 58 (95% CI: 54 to 62) more cases more per 100 000). For common mental health disorders, the gap in recorded cases in EHRs narrowed during the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: People living alone have poorer mental health and lower life satisfaction. During the pandemic, this gap in self-reported distress remained; however, there was a narrowing of the gap in service use. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Greater mental health need and potentially greater barriers to mental healthcare access for those who live alone need to be considered in healthcare planning.

First Report of Autochthonous Canine Leishmaniasis in Hong Kong.

Canine leishmaniasis is a zoonotic disease caused by Leishmania infantum; transmitted by the bite of phlebotomine sand flies. Leishmania infantum amastigotes were identified by cytology from a locally born Hong Kong dog exhibiting nasal, cutaneous, and systemic disease who was part of a kennel of eight dogs. All eight kennel dogs were subsequently tested serologically by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) followed by DNA sequencing for L. infantum infection. The local dog was seropositive and blood and splenic tissue were PCR positive for L. infantum whilst the other kennel dogs were negative on serology and PCR. Autochthonous transmission was suspected for the local dog as Hong Kong lacks known vectors of L. infantum. Either vertical transmission from the deceased dam who had previously died with disease suspicious for leishmaniasis or horizontal transmission from a second non-locally born kennel dog who had been diagnosed previously with leishmaniasis was possible. This is the first recorded autochthonous case of canine leishmaniasis in Hong Kong. Leishmaniasis should be considered as a differential for cutaneous or systemic illness in local untraveled dogs in Hong Kong. In addition, as dogs serve as L. infantum reservoirs for human infection attention should be paid to the possibility of leishmaniasis emerging in Hong Kong.