Future temperature extremes threaten land vertebrates.

The frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme thermal events are increasing and are projected to further increase by the end of the century1,2. Despite the considerable consequences of temperature extremes on biological systems3-8, we do not know which species and locations are most exposed worldwide. Here we provide a global assessment of land vertebrates' exposures to future extreme thermal events. We use daily maximum temperature data from 1950 to 2099 to quantify future exposure to high frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme thermal events to land vertebrates. Under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5); 4.4 °C warmer world), 41.0% of all land vertebrates (31.1% mammals, 25.8% birds, 55.5% amphibians and 51.0% reptiles) will be exposed to extreme thermal events beyond their historical levels in at least half their distribution by 2099. Under intermediate-high (SSP3-7.0; 3.6 °C warmer world) and intermediate (SSP2-4.5; 2.7 °C warmer world) emission scenarios, estimates for all vertebrates are 28.8% and 15.1%, respectively. Importantly, a low-emission future (SSP1-2.6, 1.8 °C warmer world) will greatly reduce the overall exposure of vertebrates (6.1% of species) and can fully prevent exposure in many species assemblages. Mid-latitude assemblages (desert, shrubland, and grassland biomes), rather than tropics9,10, will face the most severe exposure to future extreme thermal events. By 2099, under SSP5-8.5, on average 3,773 species of land vertebrates (11.2%) will face extreme thermal events for more than half a year period. Overall, future extreme thermal events will force many species and assemblages into constant severe thermal stress. Deep greenhouse gas emissions cuts are urgently needed to limit species' exposure to thermal extremes.

A global reptile assessment highlights shared conservation needs of tetrapods.

Comprehensive assessments of species' extinction risks have documented the extinction crisis1 and underpinned strategies for reducing those risks2. Global assessments reveal that, among tetrapods, 40.7% of amphibians, 25.4% of mammals and 13.6% of birds are threatened with extinction3. Because global assessments have been lacking, reptiles have been omitted from conservation-prioritization analyses that encompass other tetrapods4-7. Reptiles are unusually diverse in arid regions, suggesting that they may have different conservation needs6. Here we provide a comprehensive extinction-risk assessment of reptiles and show that at least 1,829 out of 10,196 species (21.1%) are threatened-confirming a previous extrapolation8 and representing 15.6 billion years of phylogenetic diversity. Reptiles are threatened by the same major factors that threaten other tetrapods-agriculture, logging, urban development and invasive species-although the threat posed by climate change remains uncertain. Reptiles inhabiting forests, where these threats are strongest, are more threatened than those in arid habitats, contrary to our prediction. Birds, mammals and amphibians are unexpectedly good surrogates for the conservation of reptiles, although threatened reptiles with the smallest ranges tend to be isolated from other threatened tetrapods. Although some reptiles-including most species of crocodiles and turtles-require urgent, targeted action to prevent extinctions, efforts to protect other tetrapods, such as habitat preservation and control of trade and invasive species, will probably also benefit many reptiles.

The global biomass of wild mammals.

Wild mammals are icons of conservation efforts, yet there is no rigorous estimate available for their overall global biomass. Biomass as a metric allows us to compare species with very different body sizes, and can serve as an indicator of wild mammal presence, trends, and impacts, on a global scale. Here, we compiled estimates of the total abundance (i.e., the number of individuals) of several hundred mammal species from the available data, and used these to build a model that infers the total biomass of terrestrial mammal species for which the global abundance is unknown. We present a detailed assessment, arriving at a total wet biomass of ≈20 million tonnes (Mt) for all terrestrial wild mammals (95% CI 13-38 Mt), i.e., ≈3 kg per person on earth. The primary contributors to the biomass of wild land mammals are large herbivores such as the white-tailed deer, wild boar, and African elephant. We find that even-hoofed mammals (artiodactyls, such as deer and boars) represent about half of the combined mass of terrestrial wild mammals. In addition, we estimated the total biomass of wild marine mammals at ≈40 Mt (95% CI 20-80 Mt), with baleen whales comprising more than half of this mass. In order to put wild mammal biomass into perspective, we additionally estimate the biomass of the remaining members of the class Mammalia. The total mammal biomass is overwhelmingly dominated by livestock (≈630 Mt) and humans (≈390 Mt). This work is a provisional census of wild mammal biomass on Earth and can serve as a benchmark for human impacts.

Automated assessment reveals that the extinction risk of reptiles is widely underestimated across space and phylogeny.

The Red List of Threatened Species, published by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), is a crucial tool for conservation decision-making. However, despite substantial effort, numerous species remain unassessed or have insufficient data available to be assigned a Red List extinction risk category. Moreover, the Red Listing process is subject to various sources of uncertainty and bias. The development of robust automated assessment methods could serve as an efficient and highly useful tool to accelerate the assessment process and offer provisional assessments. Here, we aimed to (1) present a machine learning-based automated extinction risk assessment method that can be used on less known species; (2) offer provisional assessments for all reptiles-the only major tetrapod group without a comprehensive Red List assessment; and (3) evaluate potential effects of human decision biases on the outcome of assessments. We use the method presented here to assess 4,369 reptile species that are currently unassessed or classified as Data Deficient by the IUCN. The models used in our predictions were 90% accurate in classifying species as threatened/nonthreatened, and 84% accurate in predicting specific extinction risk categories. Unassessed and Data Deficient reptiles were considerably more likely to be threatened than assessed species, adding to mounting evidence that these species warrant more conservation attention. The overall proportion of threatened species greatly increased when we included our provisional assessments. Assessor identities strongly affected prediction outcomes, suggesting that assessor effects need to be carefully considered in extinction risk assessments. Regions and taxa we identified as likely to be more threatened should be given increased attention in new assessments and conservation planning. Lastly, the method we present here can be easily implemented to help bridge the assessment gap for other less known taxa.

What factors influence the rediscovery of lost tetrapod species?

We created a database of lost and rediscovered tetrapod species, identified patterns in their distribution and factors influencing rediscovery. Tetrapod species are being lost at a faster rate than they are being rediscovered, due to slowing rates of rediscovery for amphibians, birds and mammals, and rapid rates of loss for reptiles. Finding lost species and preventing future losses should therefore be a conservation priority. By comparing the taxonomic and spatial distribution of lost and rediscovered tetrapod species, we have identified regions and taxa with many lost species in comparison to those that have been rediscovered-our results may help to prioritise search effort to find them. By identifying factors that influence rediscovery, we have improved our ability to broadly distinguish the types of species that are likely to be found from those that are not (because they are likely to be extinct). Some lost species, particularly those that are small and perceived to be uncharismatic, may have been neglected in terms of conservation effort, and other lost species may be hard to find due to their intrinsic characteristics and the characteristics of the environments they occupy (e.g. nocturnal species, fossorial species and species occupying habitats that are more difficult to survey such as wetlands). These lost species may genuinely await rediscovery. However, other lost species that possess characteristics associated with rediscovery (e.g. large species) and that are also associated with factors that negatively influence rediscovery (e.g. those occupying small islands) are more likely to be extinct. Our results may foster pragmatic search protocols that prioritise lost species likely to still exist.

Their fates intertwined: diversification patterns of the Asian gliding vertebrates may have been forged by dipterocarp trees.

The repeated evolution of gliding in diverse Asian vertebrate lineages is hypothesized to have been triggered by the dominance of tall dipterocarp trees in the tropical forests of Southeast Asia. These dipterocarp forests have acted as both centres of diversification and climatic refugia for gliding vertebrates, and support most of their extant diversity. We predict similarities in the diversification patterns of dipterocarp trees and gliding vertebrates, and specifically test whether episodic diversification events such as rate shifts and/or mass extinctions were temporally congruent in these groups. We analysed diversification patterns in reconstructed timetrees of Asian dipterocarps, the most speciose gliding vertebrates from different classes (Draco lizards, gliding frogs and Pteromyini squirrels) and compared them with similar-sized clades of non-gliding relatives (Diploderma lizards, Philautus frogs and Callosciurinae squirrels) from Southeast Asia. We found significant declines in net-diversification rates of dipterocarps and the gliding vertebrates during the Pliocene-Pleistocene, but not in the non-gliding groups. We conclude that the homogeneity and temporal coincidence of these rate declines point to a viable ecological correlation between dipterocarps and the gliding vertebrates. Further, we suggest that while the diversification decay in dipterocarps was precipitated by post-Miocene aridification of Asia, the crises in the gliding vertebrates were induced by both events concomitantly.

Ultraconserved elements-based phylogenomic systematics of the snake superfamily Elapoidea, with the description of a new Afro-Asian family.

The highly diverse snake superfamily Elapoidea is considered to be a classic example of ancient, rapid radiation. Such radiations are challenging to fully resolve phylogenetically, with the highly diverse Elapoidea a case in point. Previous attempts at inferring a phylogeny of elapoids produced highly incongruent estimates of their evolutionary relationships, often with very low statistical support. We sought to resolve this situation by sequencing over 4,500 ultraconserved element loci from multiple representatives of every elapoid family/subfamily level taxon and inferring their phylogenetic relationships with multiple methods. Concatenation and multispecies coalescent based species trees yielded largely congruent and well-supported topologies. Hypotheses of a hard polytomy were not retained for any deep branches. Our phylogenies recovered Cyclocoridae and Elapidae as diverging early within Elapoidea. The Afro-Malagasy radiation of elapoid snakes, classified as multiple subfamilies of an inclusive Lamprophiidae by some earlier authors, was found to be monophyletic in all analyses. The genus Micrelaps was consistently recovered as sister to Lamprophiidae. We establish a new family, Micrelapidae fam. nov., for Micrelaps and assign Brachyophis to this family based on cranial osteological synapomorphy. We estimate that Elapoidea originated in the early Eocene and rapidly diversified into all the major lineages during this epoch. Ecological opportunities presented by the post-Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction event may have promoted the explosive radiation of elapoid snakes.

Squamate metabolic rates decrease in winter beyond the effect of temperature.

The reptilian form of hibernation (brumation) is much less studied than its mammalian and insect equivalents. Hibernation and brumation share some basic features but may differ in others. Evidence for hypometabolism in brumating reptiles beyond the effect of temperature is sporadic and often ignored. We calculated the standard metabolic rates (SMR, oxygen uptake during inactivity), in winter and/or summer, of 156 individuals representing 59 species of Israeli squamates across all 17 local families. For 32 species, we measured the same individuals during both seasons. We measured gas exchange continuously in a dark metabolic chamber, under the average January high and low temperatures (20°C and 12°C), during daytime and nighttime. We examined how SMR changes with season, biome, body size, temperature and time of day, using phylogenetic mixed models. Metabolic rates increased at sunrise in the diurnal species, despite no light or other external cues, while in nocturnal species the metabolic rates did not increase. Cathemeral species shifted from a diurnal-like diel pattern in winter to a nocturnal-like pattern in summer. Regardless of season, Mediterranean species SMRs were 30% higher than similar-sized desert species. Summer SMR of all species together scaled with body size with an exponent of 0.84 but dropped to 0.71 during brumation. Individuals measured during both seasons decreased their SMR between summer and winter by a 47%, on average, at 20°C and by 70% at 12°C. Q10 was 1.75 times higher in winter than in summer, possibly indicating an active suppression of metabolic processes under cold temperatures. Our results challenge the commonly held perception that squamate physiology is mainly shaped by temperature, with little role for intrinsic metabolic regulation. The patterns we describe indicate that seasonal, diel and geographic factors can trigger remarkable shifts in metabolism across squamate species.

Foraging mode constrains the evolution of cephalic horns in lizards and snakes.

A phylogenetically diverse minority of snake and lizard species exhibit rostral and ocular appendages that substantially modify the shape of their heads. These cephalic horns have evolved multiple times in diverse squamate lineages, enabling comparative tests of hypotheses on the benefits and costs of these distinctive traits. Here, we demonstrate correlated evolution between the occurrence of horns and foraging mode. We argue that although horns may be beneficial for various functions (e.g. camouflage, defence) in animals that move infrequently, they make active foragers more conspicuous to prey and predators, and hence are maladaptive. We therefore expected horns to be more common in species that ambush prey (entailing low movement rates) rather than in actively searching (frequently moving) species. Consistent with that hypothesis, our phylogenetic comparative analysis of published data on 1939 species reveals that cephalic horns occur almost exclusively in sit-and-wait predators. This finding underlines how foraging mode constrains the morphology of squamates and provides a compelling starting point for similar studies in other animal groups.

Data gaps and opportunities for comparative and conservation biology.

Biodiversity loss is a major challenge. Over the past century, the average rate of vertebrate extinction has been about 100-fold higher than the estimated background rate and population declines continue to increase globally. Birth and death rates determine the pace of population increase or decline, thus driving the expansion or extinction of a species. Design of species conservation policies hence depends on demographic data (e.g., for extinction risk assessments or estimation of harvesting quotas). However, an overview of the accessible data, even for better known taxa, is lacking. Here, we present the Demographic Species Knowledge Index, which classifies the available information for 32,144 (97%) of extant described mammals, birds, reptiles, and amphibians. We show that only 1.3% of the tetrapod species have comprehensive information on birth and death rates. We found no demographic measures, not even crude ones such as maximum life span or typical litter/clutch size, for 65% of threatened tetrapods. More field studies are needed; however, some progress can be made by digitalizing existing knowledge, by imputing data from related species with similar life histories, and by using information from captive populations. We show that data from zoos and aquariums in the Species360 network can significantly improve knowledge for an almost eightfold gain. Assessing the landscape of limited demographic knowledge is essential to prioritize ways to fill data gaps. Such information is urgently needed to implement management strategies to conserve at-risk taxa and to discover new unifying concepts and evolutionary relationships across thousands of tetrapod species.

Too simple models may predict the island rule for the wrong reasons.

Biddick & Burns (2021) proposed a null/neutral model that reproduces the island rule as a product of random drift. We agree that it is unnecessary to assume adaptive processes driving island dwarfing or gigantism, but several flaws make their approach unrealistic and thus unsuitable as a stochastic model for evolutionary size changes.

Elevation is a stronger predictor of morphological trait divergence than competition in a radiation of tropical lizards.

Adaptations for efficient performance are expected to shape animal morphology based on selection for microhabitat use and ecological forces. The presence of competitor species is predicted to cause niches to contract and enhance trait divergence. Therefore, increased species richness is expected to lead to greater trait divergence, and to result in reduced overlap and similarity between morphologies of sympatric species. We examined patterns of morphospace occupancy and partitioning in the skink fauna of New Guinea, the world's largest tropical island. Because skink species richness is largely decoupled from elevation in New Guinea, we could examine the effects of both factors (as proxies for competition and abiotic conditions), on morphospace occupancy and partitioning. We measured 1,860 specimens from 79 species of skinks throughout Papua New Guinea, and examined their morphospace occupancy in a spatial context. We calculated, for each assemblage within equal-area cells, the volume of morphospace occupied by all skinks, the mean volume occupied per species, and the mean distance and overlap between all species pairs. We then examined whether these metrics are related to species richness and elevation. Elevation is a stronger predictor of morphospace occupancy than species richness. As elevation increases, intraspecific variation decreases and morphologies become more similar to each other such that overall morphospace occupancy decreases. Highland skinks are, on average, smaller, thinner and shorter limbed than lowland species. We hypothesise that harsh climates in the New Guinea highland habitats impose strong selection on skinks to occupy specific areas of morphospace that facilitate efficient thermoregulation in suboptimal thermal conditions. We conclude that the effect of competition on trait divergence on a community and assemblage scale is eclipsed by abiotic selection pressures in these harsh environments.

Global effects of land use on local terrestrial biodiversity.

Human activities, especially conversion and degradation of habitats, are causing global biodiversity declines. How local ecological assemblages are responding is less clear--a concern given their importance for many ecosystem functions and services. We analysed a terrestrial assemblage database of unprecedented geographic and taxonomic coverage to quantify local biodiversity responses to land use and related changes. Here we show that in the worst-affected habitats, these pressures reduce within-sample species richness by an average of 76.5%, total abundance by 39.5% and rarefaction-based richness by 40.3%. We estimate that, globally, these pressures have already slightly reduced average within-sample richness (by 13.6%), total abundance (10.7%) and rarefaction-based richness (8.1%), with changes showing marked spatial variation. Rapid further losses are predicted under a business-as-usual land-use scenario; within-sample richness is projected to fall by a further 3.4% globally by 2100, with losses concentrated in biodiverse but economically poor countries. Strong mitigation can deliver much more positive biodiversity changes (up to a 1.9% average increase) that are less strongly related to countries' socioeconomic status.

Cryptic diversity and non-adaptive radiation of montane New Guinea skinks (Papuascincus; Scincidae).

New Guinea, the world's largest and highest tropical island, has a rich but poorly known biota. Papuascincus is a genus of skinks endemic to New Guinea's mountain regions, comprising two wide-ranging species and two species known only from their type series. The phylogeny of the genus has never been examined and the relationships among its species - as well as between it and closely related taxa - are hitherto unknown. We performed the first large-scale molecular-phylogenetic study of Papuascincus, including sampling across the genus' range in Papua New Guinea. We sequenced three mitochondrial and two nuclear markers from 65 specimens of Papuascincus and reconstructed their phylogenetic relationships. We also performed species-delimitation analyses, estimated divergence times and ancestral biogeography, and examined body-size evolution within the genus. Papuascincus was strongly supported as monophyletic. It began radiating during the mid-Miocene in the area now comprising the Central Cordillera of New Guinea, then dispersed eastward colonising the Papuan Peninsula. We found evidence of extensive cryptic diversity within the genus, with between nine and 20 supported genetic lineages. These were estimated using three methods of species delimitation and predominantly occur in allopatry. Distribution and body-size divergence patterns indicated that character displacement in size took place during the evolutionary history of Papuascincus. We conclude that the genus requires comprehensive taxonomic revision and likely represents a species-rich lineage of montane skinks.

Viviparity does not affect the numbers and sizes of reptile offspring.

Viviparity (live-bearing) has independently evolved from oviparity (egg-laying) in more than 100 lineages of squamates (lizards and snakes). We might expect consequent shifts in selective forces to affect per-brood reproductive investment (RI = total mass of offspring relative to maternal mass) and in the way in which that output is partitioned (number vs. size of offspring per brood). Based on the assumption that newly born offspring are heavier than eggs, we predicted that live-bearing must entail either increased RI or a reduction in offspring size and/or fecundity. However, our phylogenetically controlled analysis of data on 1,259 squamate species revealed no significant differences in mean offspring size, clutch size or RI between oviparous and viviparous squamates. We attribute this paradoxical result to (1) strong selection on offspring sizes, unaffected by parity mode, (2) the lack of a larval stage in amniotes, favouring large eggs even in the ancestral oviparous mode and (3) the ability of viviparous females to decrease the mass of uterine embryos by reducing extra-embryonic water stores. Our analysis shows that squamate eggs (when laid) weigh about the same as the hatchlings that emerge from them (despite a many-fold increase in embryo mass during incubation). Most of the egg mass is due to components (such as water stores and the eggshell) not required for oviductal incubation. That repackaging enables live-born offspring to be accommodated within the mother's body without increasing total litter mass. The consequent stasis in reproductive burden during the evolutionary transition from oviparity to viviparity may have facilitated frequent shifts in parity modes.

Early insularity and subsequent mountain uplift were complementary drivers of diversification in a Melanesian lizard radiation (Gekkonidae: Cyrtodactylus).

Regions with complex geological histories present a major challenge for scientists studying the processes that have shaped their biotas. The history of the vast and biologically rich tropical island of New Guinea is particularly complex and poorly resolved. Competing geological models propose New Guinea emerged as a substantial landmass either during the Mid-Miocene or as recently as the Pliocene. Likewise, the estimated timing for the uplift of the high Central Cordillera, spanning the length of the island, differs across models. Here we investigate how early islands and mountain uplift have shaped the diversification and biogeography of Cyrtodactylus geckos. Our data strongly support initial colonisation and divergence within proto-Papuan islands in the Early- to Mid-Miocene, with divergent lineages and endemic diversity concentrated on oceanic island arcs in northern New Guinea and the formerly isolated East-Papuan Composite Terrane. At least four lineages are inferred to have independently colonised hill- and lower-montane forests, indicating that mountain uplift has also played a critical role in accumulating diversity, even in this predominantly lowland lineage. Our findings suggest that substantial land in northern New Guinea and lower-montane habitats date back well into the Miocene and that insular diversification and mountain colonisation have synergistically generated diversity in the geologically complex Papuan region.

Multilocus phylogeny and coalescent species delimitation in Kotschy's gecko, Mediodactylus kotschyi: Hidden diversity and cryptic species.

Kotschy's Gecko, Mediodactylus kotschyi, is a small gecko native to southeastern Europe and the Levant. It displays great morphological variation with a large number of morphologically recognized subspecies. However, it has been suggested that it constitutes a species complex of several yet unrecognized species. In this study, we used multilocus sequence data (three mitochondrial and three nuclear gene fragments) to estimate the phylogenetic relationships of 174 specimens from 129 sampling localities, covering a substantial part of the distribution range of the species. Our results revealed high genetic diversity of M. kotschyi populations and contributed to our knowledge about the phylogenetic relationships and the estimation of the divergence times between them. Diversification within M. kotschyi began approximately 15 million years ago (Mya) in the Middle Miocene, whereas the diversification within most of the major clades have been occurred in the last 5 Mya. Species delimitation analysis suggests there exists five species within the complex, and we propose to tentatively recognize the following taxa as full species: M. kotschyi (mainland Balkans, most of Aegean islands, and Italy), M. orientalis (Levant, Cyprus, southern Anatolia, and south-eastern Aegean islands), M. danilewskii (Black Sea region and south-western Anatolia), M. bartoni (Crete), and M. oertzeni (southern Dodecanese Islands). This newly recognized diversity underlines the complex biogeographical history of the Eastern Mediterranean region.