The direct and spillover effects of diabetes diagnosis on lifestyle behaviours.

Using blood sample data we exploit an arbitrary cut-off of diabetes risk and through a fuzzy regression kink design we estimate the effect of a diabetes diagnosis on own and partner health-related behaviours. Diabetes diagnosis increases the probability of exercising, both for those diagnosed with diabetes and their partner. We also conduct mediation analysis which suggests that joint household participation is the channel behind this effect. Our results have significant implications for the understanding of the channels that induce behavioural change, and household decision making, as well as, for the evaluation of diabetes related policies.

Survey modes comparison in contingent valuation: Internet panels and mail surveys.

Stated preferences methods are extensively applied in health economics to elicit preferences. Although mailed surveys were commonly used to collect data, internet panel (IP) surveys are being increasingly used. This raises questions about the validity of responses and estimated willingness-to-pay (WTP) values generated from IP surveys. We conduct the first study in health to compare a contingent valuation IP survey with a mailed survey using the electoral roll. Our IP has a higher response rate and lower item missing response rate. The difference is reduced but remains when restricting comparisons with valid WTPs. Sample characteristics differ, with significant differences between modes for gender, age, income, and attitudes and knowledge. Although difference in WTP values exist, with the IP resulting in higher values, we find limited evidence that such differences are statistically significant. The mail survey has lower initial cost per response; however, once restricting samples to valid WTP responses with nonmissing respondent information, the cost per response across modes is similar. Our results, suggesting that IPs generate valid and cost-effective values, are encouraging as researchers move increasingly to IPs to collect preference data.

A proof-of-concept framework for the preference elicitation and evaluation of health informatics technologies: the online PRESENT patient experience dashboard as a case example.

BACKGROUND: Constrained budgets within healthcare systems and the need to efficiently allocate resources often necessitate the valuation of healthcare interventions and services. However, when a technological product is developed for which no market exists it is a challenge to understand how to place the product and which specifications are the most sought after and important for end users. This was the case for a dashboard we developed, displaying analyses of patient experience survey free-text comments. METHOD: We describe a customisation and evaluation process for our online dashboard that addresses this challenge, using a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE). We were not interested in the exact content of the dashboard, which was determined in previous stages of our larger study, but on the availability of features and customization options and how they affect individuals' purchasing behaviours. RESULTS: Our DCE completion rate was 33/152 (22%). Certain features were highly desirable - the search function, filtering, and upload own data - and would contribute significant added value to the dashboard. Purchasing behaviour was dependent on the dashboard features, going from a 10 to 90% probability to purchase when we moved from a baseline to a fully-featured dashboard. The purchasing behaviour elicited in this study assumes individuals already have buy-in to the online dashboard, so we assessed only how the various features of our dashboard influence the probability of purchasing the product. Results were used to inform development of a generic checklist of desirable healthcare dashboard features as well as to refine the dashboard itself. Our study suggests the development of the online dashboard and its roll-out in the market would result in a positive net benefit in terms of utilities. The cost-benefit analysis offers a lower bound estimate of the net benefit as it does not acknowledge or incorporate non-monetary benefits that would result from the use of the online dashboard, such as from improved healthcare management. CONCLUSION: DCEs can be successfully used to inform development of an online dashboard by determining preferences for particular features and customisation options and how this affects individuals' purchasing behaviours. The process should be transferable to the development of other technologies.

Estimating Determinants of Attrition in Eating Disorder Communities on Twitter: An Instrumental Variables Approach.

BACKGROUND: The use of social media as a key health information source has increased steadily among people affected by eating disorders (EDs). Research has examined characteristics of individuals engaging in online communities, whereas little is known about discontinuation of engagement and the phenomenon of participants dropping out of these communities. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the characteristics of dropout behaviors among eating disordered individuals on Twitter and to estimate the causal effects of personal emotions and social networks on dropout behaviors. METHODS: Using a snowball sampling method, we collected a set of individuals who self-identified with EDs in their Twitter profile descriptions, as well as their tweets and social networks, leading to 241,243,043 tweets from 208,063 users. Individuals' emotions are measured from their language use in tweets using an automatic sentiment analysis tool, and network centralities are measured from users' following networks. Dropout statuses of users are observed in a follow-up period 1.5 years later (from February 11, 2016 to August 17, 2017). Linear and survival regression instrumental variables models are used to estimate the effects of emotions and network centrality on dropout behaviors. The average levels of attributes among an individual's followees (ie, people who are followed by the individual) are used as instruments for the individual's attributes. RESULTS: Eating disordered users have relatively short periods of activity on Twitter with one half of our sample dropping out at 6 months after account creation. Active users show more negative emotions and higher network centralities than dropped-out users. Active users tend to connect to other active users, whereas dropped-out users tend to cluster together. Estimation results suggest that users' emotions and network centralities have causal effects on their dropout behaviors on Twitter. More specifically, users with positive emotions are more likely to drop out and have shorter lasting periods of activity online than users with negative emotions, whereas central users in a social network have longer lasting participation than peripheral users. Findings on users' tweeting interests further show that users who attempt to recover from EDs are more likely to drop out than those who promote EDs as a lifestyle choice. CONCLUSIONS: Presence in online communities is strongly determined by the individual's emotions and social networks, suggesting that studies analyzing and trying to draw condition and population characteristics through online health communities are likely to be biased. Future research needs to examine in more detail the links between individual characteristics and participation patterns if better understanding of the entire population is to be achieved. At the same time, such attrition dynamics need to be acknowledged and controlled when designing online interventions so as to accurately capture their intended populations.

Body-weight and psychological well-being in the UK general population.

Background: While the consequences of body weight for physical health are well explored, the evidence for psychological well-being is less straightforward. An instrumental variable approach is used to address the endogenous relationship between body weight and well-being in the UK general population. Methods: Data from the Health Survey for England (2003, 2004 and 2006) are used to fit linear and ordered probit instrument variable models for a sample of 13 862 individuals, with frequent white meat consumption instrumenting for body-weight. Non-linearities in the relationship, robustness to weak instruments and relaxation of strict exogeneity assumption are further examined. Results: Accounting for endogeneity and conditional on health a protective effect on well-being is observed. A unit increase in body mass index (BMI) improves General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) by 0.17 (95% CI: 0.02-0.31) points and reduces the probability of reporting very low GHQ by 2.5% (95% CI: 0.01-0.05). Empirical testing showed that the instrument performs well, with increased meat consumption adding 0.58 points (95% CI: 0.42-0.74) to ones' BMI. Conclusions: We present support for the jolly-fat hypothesis, however, caution is recommended in drawing inferences. Further research needs to resolve the mixed findings in the literature.

External Validity of Contingent Valuation: Comparing Hypothetical and Actual Payments.

Whilst contingent valuation is increasingly used in economics to value benefits, questions remain concerning its external validity that is do hypothetical responses match actual responses? We present results from the first within sample field test. Whilst Hypothetical No is always an Actual No, Hypothetical Yes exceed Actual Yes responses. A constant rate of response reversals across bids/prices could suggest theoretically consistent option value responses. Certainty calibrations (verbal and numerical response scales) minimise hypothetical-actual discrepancies offering a useful solution. Helping respondents resolve uncertainty may reduce the discrepancy between hypothetical and actual payments and thus lead to more accurate policy recommendations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Psychological Distress and Problem Drinking.

We examine the influence of harmful alcohol use on mental health using a flexible two-step instrumental variables approach and household survey data from nine countries of the former Soviet Union. Using alcohol advertisements to instrument for alcohol, we show that problem drinking has a large detrimental effect on psychological distress, with problem drinkers exhibiting a 42% increase in the number of mental health problems reported and a 15% higher chance of reporting very poor mental health. Ignoring endogeneity leads to an underestimation of the damaging effect of excessive drinking. Findings suggest that more effective alcohol policies and treatment services in the former Soviet Union may have added benefits in terms of reducing poor mental health.

Priority setting in the Austrian healthcare system: results from a discrete choice experiment and implications for mental health.

BACKGROUND: The impact of mental conditions is expected to be among the highest ranked causes of illness in high income countries by 2020. With changing health needs, policy makers have to make choices in an environment with increasingly constrained resources and competing demands. Discrete choice experiments have been identified as a useful approach to inform and support decision-making in health care systems and, in particular, its rationing. METHODS: Policymakers, researchers and health practitioners from Austria participated in an experiment designed to elicit preferences for efficiency and equity in a generic priority setting framework. Using aggregate criteria an empirical measure of the efficiency/equity trade-off is calculated and a selection of health care interventions, including mental health, are ranked in composite league tables (CLTs). RESULTS: With the exception of severity of the condition, all equity parameters decrease attractiveness of an intervention, whereas the opposite holds for all three efficiency criteria. The efficiency/equity ratio (i.e. decision-makers' preference for efficiency over equity) is 3.5 and 5 for interventions targeted at younger and middle age populations, respectively, while for older populations this ratio is negative implying a rejection of all equity criteria. Irrespective of such differences interventions targeting mental health rank highly on all CLTs. CONCLUSION: Based on system-wide generic decision making criteria, mental health is shown to be a top priority for Austria. Preference-based approaches might offer complementary information to policymakers in priority setting decisions and a useful tool to support rationale rather than ad hoc decision-making.

Cigarette packaging, warnings, prices, and contraband: A discrete choice experiment among smokers in Ontario, Canada.

In Canada, despite substantial decline, tobacco use remains the leading risk factor responsible for mortality and morbidity. There is overwhelming evidence that higher tobacco taxes reduce tobacco use, even if high taxes create an incentive to avoid or evade tobacco taxes. Recently, in addition to taxes, plain and standardized packaging and printing a warning on each cigarette have been lauded to reduce tobacco use. In November 2019, Canada became the country with the most comprehensive cigarette packaging regulations; and in June 2022, Canada proposed to print health warnings on individual cigarettes, the first jurisdiction to ever do so. The regulations came into force on August 1, 2023, and are being implemented through a stepwise approach. Our objective was to examine the effects of plain and standardized packaging, warning on cigarettes, price, and the availability of illicit cigarettes on intention to purchase and risk perceptions. We conducted a discrete choice experiment, and examined heterogeneity in preferences using latent class models among smokers in Ontario, Canada. We found that using latent class analyses was essential in quantifying preferences for attributes of cigarettes and cigarette packs. First, nearly half of smokers stated a preference for cheaper illicit cigarettes in a branded pack without any health warnings, regardless of the licit cigarette alternatives. For about 20% of respondents, plain packaging and especially warning on cigarette sticks decreased the probability of stating a purchasing preference for these alternatives. Third, about a third of respondents chose competing alternatives with mostly one attribute in mind, price. Lastly, none of the products and attributes seem to have significantly influenced risk perception. Our findings attest to the importance of prices and taxes, to the potential of warnings on cigarette sticks to control tobacco use, and indicate that efforts to restrict the availability of illicit cigarettes may yield substantial benefits.

Would plain packaging and health warning labels reduce smoking in the presence of informal markets? A choice experiment in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Despite progress made by many countries on the adoption of plain tobacco packaging laws over the last years, low- and middle-income countries, with a large supply of loose cigarettes via informal vendors, remain far behind. AIM: To study the potential effectiveness of plain tobacco packaging and dissuasive cigarette sticks, via willingness-to-pay estimates, when illicit cigarette options are available. METHODS: We conducted a discrete choice experiment (DCE) in which respondents chose licit and illicit products with three attributes: packaging (standard vs. plain packaging), stick design (branded stick vs. stick with warning), and price level. The sample, collected on 12/2021, consisted of 1761 respondents from an internet panel involving smokers and nonsmokers. Conditional logit and latent class models were used to estimate the willingness-to-pay (WTP) to avoid restrictive packaging elements. RESULTS: Nonsmokers are willing to pay USD $5.63 for a pack of cigarettes to avoid plain packaging, which is higher than the actual commercial price of illicit cigarettes (USD $2.40). The WTP increases to USD $12.14 in the presence of illicit alternatives. Smokers are also willing to pay to avoid illicit options, which they also deem riskier, and the presence of such options increases the WTP to avoid plain packaging. However, nonsmokers do not perceive the illicit option as riskier. The dissuasive stick (stick with warning) does not affect perceptions of risk and plays a small role in terms of choice for both smokers and nonsmokers. CONCLUSIONS: Even in the presence of illicit tobacco alternatives, plain packaging seems to be as effective in reducing the attractiveness of tobacco products in Colombia as in other countries that have already adopted it. Given conflicting results on the case for dissuasive sticks, there is a need for more research.

Do political factors matter in explaining under- and overweight outcomes in developing countries?

We construct a rich dataset covering 47 developing countries over the years 1990-2007, combining several micro and macro level data sources to explore the link between political factors and body mass index (BMI). We implement a heteroskedastic generalized ordered logit model allowing for different covariate effects across the BMI distribution and accounting for the unequal BMI dispersion by geographical area. We find that systems with democratic qualities are more likely to reduce under-weight, but increase overweight/obesity, whereas effective political competition does entail double-benefits in the form of reducing both under-weight and obesity. Our results are robust to the introduction of country fixed effects.

Decision-making criteria among national policymakers in five countries: a discrete choice experiment eliciting relative preferences for equity and efficiency.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, there is a need for formalization of the priority setting processes in health. Recent research has used the term multicriteria decision analysis for methods that systematically include preferences for both equity and efficiency. The present study compares decision-makers' preferences at the country level for a set of equity and efficiency criteria according to a multicriteria decision analysis framework. METHODS: Discrete choice experiments were conducted for Brazil, Cuba, Nepal, Norway, and Uganda. By using standardized methods, we elicited preferences for intervention attributes using a individual choice questionnaire. A multinomial logistic regression was applied to estimate the coefficients for all single-policy criteria, per country. Attributes were assigned to an equity group or to an efficiency group. After testing for scale variance, predicted probabilities for interventions with both types of attributes were compared across countries. RESULTS: The Norway and Nepal groups showed considerable preferences for efficiency criteria over equity criteria with percent change in respective predicted sum probabilities of [10%, -84%] and [6%, -79%]. Brazil and Uganda also showed preference for the efficiency criteria though less convincingly ([-34%, -93%], [-18%, -63%], respectively). The Cuban group showed the strongest preferences with equity attributes dominating efficiency ([-52%, 213%]). CONCLUSIONS: Group preferences of policymakers show explicit but varying trade-offs of efficiency and equity in these diverse settings. This multicriteria decision analysis approach, using discrete choice experiments, indicates that systematic setting of health priorities is possible across a variety of countries. It may be a valuable tool to guide health reform initiatives.

Discrete choice experiment exploring women's preferences in a novel device designed to monitor the womb environment and improve our understanding of reproductive disorders.

OBJECTIVES: The study aims to determine the relative importance of key attributes of a novel intrauterine device. The device monitors uterine oxygen, pH and temperature in real time with the aim of improving our understanding and treatment of reproductive disorders. DESIGN: A discrete choice experiment was used to elicit preferences in this novel investigative tool. The attributes and levels used in the choice scenarios were length of time using the device (7, 14 or 28 days), information obtained to guide treatment (limited, majority or all cases), risk of complications (1% or 10%) and discreteness (completely discrete, moderately discrete or indiscrete). SETTING: Secondary care hospital in Hampshire, UK. PARTICIPANTS: 361 women of reproductive age. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Conditional logit and latent class logit regression models to determine the preference for each attribute. RESULTS: Conditional logit coefficients allow comparison between attributes; women placed most importance on obtaining information to guide treatment in all cases (2.771), followed by having a completely discrete device (1.104), reducing risk of complications by 1% (0.184) and decreased length of time by 1 day (0.0150). All coefficients p<0.01. Latent class conditional logit assigns participants to two classes with 27.4% in class 1 who are less likely to have higher education or qualify for National Health Service-funded in vitro fertilisation compared with class 2. Those in class 2 placed 1.7 times more importance on a device whose information guided treatment in all cases and a 1% decrease in complications risk was nearly 15 times more attractive. CONCLUSIONS: Women placed most importance on having a device that obtains information to guide treatment and are willing to use the device for a longer, have a device with higher risk of complications and an indiscrete device if it is able to provide answers and direction for treatment of their reproductive disorder.

Incidence and risk factors of cancer in individuals with cystic fibrosis in the UK; a case-control study.

To assess cancer incidence in the UK cystic fibrosis (CF) population and determine the associated risk factors, we undertook a nested case-control study of patients with CF, registered with the UK CF Registry. Each case with a first reported cancer between 1999 and 2017 was matched with up to 4 controls: by age (±2-years) and year of cancer diagnosis. Conditional logistic regressions were adjusted for sex, lung function (FEV1%), CF related diabetes (CFRD), F508del status, transplant status, DIOS, gastro-oesophageal reflux disease, meconium ileus, Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection, pancreatic insufficiency, proton pump inhibitor (PPI) use, IV antibiotic days and BMI. Results: From 12,886 registered patients, 146 (1.1%) cases of malignancy were identified with 14.3% of cases occurring post solid organ transplant. Site of primary cancer was available for 98 patients: 22% were gastro-intestinal in origin (77% lower, 23% upper GI), 13% skin, 13% breast and 11% lymphomas/leukaemia. In univariable analysis, transplantation increased the odds of reporting any cancer by 2.46 times (95%CI: 1.3-4.6). CFRD also increased the odds of reporting any cancer (OR 2.35; CI: 1.37-4.0) and PPI use (OR 2.0; CI 1.28-3.19). In the multivariable models significant associations with CFRD and transplant remained, while PA infection, PPI use and being overweight showed increased, but statistically insignificant risks. The incidence of GI cancer was strongly associated with CFRD (OR=4.04; 1.47-11.1). Conclusions: We observed a high incidence of lower GI cancers in our cohort which was significantly affected by the presence of CFRD. Screening for gastrointestinal cancers could benefit patients at higher risk.

Patient preferences for use of virtual consultations in an orthopaedic rehabilitation setting: Results from a discrete choice experiment.

OBJECTIVE: Virtual Consultations may reduce the need for face-to-face outpatient appointments, thereby potentially reducing the cost and time involved in delivering health care. This study reports a discrete choice experiment (DCE) that identifies factors that influence patient preferences for virtual consultations in an orthopaedic rehabilitation setting. METHODS: Previous research from the CONNECT (Care in Orthopaedics, burdeN of treatmeNt and the Effect of Communication Technology) Project and best practice guidance informed the development of our DCE. An efficient fractional factorial design with 16 choice scenarios was created that identified all main effects and partial two-way interactions. The design was divided into two blocks of eight scenarios each, to reduce the impact of cognitive fatigue. Data analysis were conducted using binary logit regression models. RESULTS: Sixty-one paired response sets (122 subjects) were available for analysis. DCE factors (whether the therapist is known to the patient, duration of appointment, time of day) and demographic factors (patient qualifications, access to equipment, difficulty with activities, multiple health issues, travel costs) were significant predictors of preference. We estimate that a patient is less than 1% likely to prefer a virtual consultation if the patient has a degree, is without access to the equipment and software to undertake a virtual consultation, does not have difficulties with day-to-day activities, is undergoing rehabilitation for one problem area, has to pay less than £5 to travel, is having a consultation with a therapist not known to them, in 1 weeks' time, lasting 60 minutes, at 2 pm. We have developed a simple conceptual model to explain how these factors interact to inform preference, including patients' access to resources, context for the consultation and the requirements of the consultation. CONCLUSIONS: This conceptual model provides the framework to focus attention towards factors that might influence patient preference for virtual consultations. Our model can inform the development of future technologies, trials, and qualitative work to further explore the mechanisms that influence preference.

Price versus clinical guidelines in primary care statin prescribing: a retrospective cohort study and cost simulation model.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relative impact of generic entry and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence clinical guidelines on prescribing using statins as an exemplar. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of statin prescribing in primary care and cost simulation model. SETTING: Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre (RCGP R&SC) database and Prescription Cost Analysis (PCA) database. PARTICIPANTS: New patients prescribed statins for the first time between July 2003 and September 2018. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Shares of new patients prescribed one of the five statins available in the British National Formulary, and cost of prescribing statins to new and existing patients in primary care in England. RESULTS: General trends of statin' prescriptions were largely driven by a decrease in acquisition costs triggered by patent expiration, preceding NICE guidelines which themselves did not seem to affect prescription trends. Significant heterogeneity is observed in the prescription of the most cost-effective statin acrossGPs. A cost simulation shows that, between 2004 and 2018, the NHS could have saved £2.8bn (around 40% of the £6.3bn spent on statins during this time) if all GP practices had prescribed only the most cost-effective treatment. CONCLUSIONS: There is potential for large savings for the NHS if new and, whenever possible, ongoing patients are promptly switched to the first medicine that becomes available as generic within a therapeutic class as long as it has similar efficacy to still-patented medicines.

Allowing for heterogeneity in monetary subjective well-being valuations.

Recent research on 'happiness' regression equations has shown how monetary values can be put on the well-being effects of many life events (like health problems, marriage or the death of a spouse). Potentially, such work has practical implications for policy-makers and the courts. However, this article argues that we need to be careful in such work to use the appropriate statistical method. It goes beyond previous research and allows for heterogeneity in the subjective well-being scales. Using less restrictive models than the current literature, the article argues that standard linear or ordered response models seem consistently to overstate valuations. With data from the UK, it provides new monetary estimates of the well-being consequences of a number of health problems, social capital indicators, marital status changes and social relationships.

Using discrete choice experiments to value informal care tasks: exploring preference heterogeneity.

While informal care is a significant part of non-market economic activity, its value is rarely acknowledged, perhaps reflecting a lack of market data. Traditional methods to value such care include opportunity and replacement cost. This study is the first to employ the discrete choice experiment methodology to value informal care tasks. A monetary value is estimated for three tasks (personal care, supervising and household tasks). The relationship between time spent on formal and informal care is also modelled and preference heterogeneity investigated using the Latent Class Model. Complementarity between supervising tasks and formal care is observed. Monetary compensation is important, with willingness to accept per hour values ranging from £0.38 to £0.83 for personal care, £0.75 for supervising and £0.31 to £0.6 for household tasks. Heterogeneity in preferences is observed, with monetary compensation being important for younger people, but insignificant for older individuals. Such heterogeneity is important at the policy level. Values are lower than those generated by opportunity cost and replacement cost methods, perhaps because of the limited ability of revealed preference methods to capture broader aspect of utility. Differences with contingent valuation methods are also observed, suggesting future research should investigate the external validity of the different methods.

Powered Respirators Are Effective, Sustainable, and Cost-Effective Personal Protective Equipment for SARS-CoV-2.

Objectives: The provision of high-quality personal protective equipment (PPE) has been a critical challenge during the COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated an alternative strategy, mass deployment of a powered air-purifying respirator (PeRSo), in a large university hospital. Methods: We performed prospective user feedback via questionnaires sent to healthcare workers (HCWs) issued PeRSos, economic analysis, and evaluated the real-world impact. Results: Where paired responses were available, PeRSo was preferred over droplet precautions for comfort, patient response, overall experience, and subjective feeling of safety. For all responses, more participants reported the overall experience being rated "Very good" more frequently for PeRSo. The primary limitation identified was impairment of hearing. Economic simulation exercises revealed that the adoption of PeRSo within ICU is associated with net cost savings in the majority of scenarios and savings increased progressively with greater ITU occupancy. In evaluation during the second UK wave, over 3,600 respirators were deployed, all requested by staff, which were associated with a low staff absence relative to most comparator hospitals. Conclusions: Health services should consider a widespread implementation of powered reusable respirators as a safe and sustainable solution for the protection of HCWs as SARS-CoV-2 becomes an endemic viral illness.

Inequality aversion in income, health, and income-related health.

Based on a survey of a sample of the general public, we estimate inequality aversion across income, health, and bivariate income-health. Inequality aversion is domain specific: mean inequality aversion is greater for income than for health, but the underlying distributions of aversion attitudes differ, with a highly bi-modal distribution of inequality-aversion values for health in which nearly half the participants display very low aversion and nearly half display very high aversion. Aversion to income-related health inequality is greater than that to income or health alone. Consistent with previous literature, we find only weak associations between aversion attitudes and individual characteristics. The magnitude of the estimates implies potentially large gains in welfare from reducing inequality in these domains.