Are self-reported fertility preferences biased? Evidence from indirect elicitation methods.

Desired fertility measures are routinely collected and used by researchers and policy makers, but their self-reported nature raises the possibility of reporting bias. In this paper, we test for the presence of such bias by comparing responses to direct survey questions with indirect questions offering a varying, randomized, degree of confidentiality to respondents in a socioeconomically diverse sample of Nigerian women ([Formula: see text]). We find that women report higher fertility preferences when asked indirectly, but only when their responses afford them complete confidentiality, not when their responses are simply blind to the enumerator. Our results suggest that there may be fewer unintended pregnancies than currently thought and that the effectiveness of family planning policy targeting may be weakened by the bias we uncover. We conclude with suggestions for future work on how to mitigate reporting bias.

Online Community and Citizen Science supports environmental science learning by young people.

Community and citizen science in online settings could be seen as a means for young people to engage with and contribute to authentic science. Yet, there is a limited understanding of who takes part in citizen science among young people, what they learn, and through which processes, particularly in online settings. In this exploratory study, we analysed 34 in-depth interviews and log files of young people aged 11-19 years old who took part in citizen science projects, hosted on the Zooniverse platform. Data analysis suggested that participation in online citizen science can bring environmental science learning benefits to young people, with some participants reporting evidence of agency with science, highlighted by taking action to do science in another context. Many participating youth exhibited substantial previous science experiences that helped them to take part and learn from citizen science projects. Considering findings from this study, we present a first working framework of how environmental science learning is enabled or hindered by certain types of participation, as a means to guide the design of online citizen science for young people. We recommend that the future project design, publicity and recruitment in online citizen science activities explicitly target the needs and interests of young people with diverse characteristics and competencies to truly open science to all.

Technological Progress and Health Convergence: The Case of Penicillin in Postwar Italy.

Throughout history, technological progress has transformed population health, but the distributional effects of these gains are unclear. New substitutes for older, more expensive health technologies can produce convergence in population health outcomes but may also be prone to elite capture and thus divergence. We study the case of penicillin using detailed historical mortality statistics and exploiting its abruptly timed introduction in Italy after WWII. We find that penicillin reduced both the mean and standard deviation of infectious disease mortality, leading to substantial convergence across disparate regions of Italy. Our results do not appear to be driven by competing risks or confounded by mortality patterns associated with WWII.

A performance comparison of the most commonly used minimally invasive monitors of cardiac output.

BACKGROUND: Shock is common in critically ill and injured patients. Survival during shock is highly dependent on rapid restoration of tissue oxygenation with therapeutic goals based on cardiac output (CO) optimization. Despite the clinical availability of numerous minimally invasive monitors of CO, limited supporting performance data are available. METHODS: Following approval of the University of Saskatchewan Animal Research Ethics Board, we assessed the performance and trending ability of PiCCOplus™, FloTrac™, and CardioQ-ODM™ across a range of CO states in pigs. In addition, we assessed the ability of invasive mean arterial blood pressure (iMAP) to follow changes in CO using a periaortic transit-time flow probe as the reference method. Statistical analysis was performed with function-fail, bias and precision, percent error, and linear regression at all flow, low-flow (> 1 standard deviation [SD] below the mean), and high-flow (> 1 SD above the mean) CO conditions. RESULTS: We made a total of 116,957 paired CO measurements. The non-invasive CO monitors often failed to provide a CO value (CardioQ-ODM: 40.6% failed measurements; 99% confidence interval [CI], 38.5 to 42.6; FloTrac: 9.6% failed measurements; 99% CI, 8.7 to 10.5; PiCCOplus: 4.7% failed measurements; 99% CI, 4.5 to 4.9; all comparisons, P < 0.001). The invasive mean arterial pressure provided zero failures, failing less often than any of the tested CO monitors (all comparisons, P < 0.001). The PiCCOplus was most interchangeable with the flow probe at all flow states: PiCCOplus (20% error; 99% CI, 19 to 22), CardioQ-ODM (25% error; 99% CI, 23 to 27), FloTrac (34% error; 99% CI, 32 to 38) (all comparisons, P < 0.001). At low-flow states, CardioQ-ODM (43% error; 99% CI, 32 to 63) and Flotrac (45% error; 99% CI, 33 to 70) had similar interchangeability (P = 0.07), both superior to PiCCOplus (48% error; 99% CI, 42 to 60) (P < 0.001). Regarding CO trending, the CardioQ-ODM (correlation coefficient, 0.82; 99% CI, 0.81 to 0.83) was statistically superior to other monitors including iMAP, but at low flows iMAP (correlation coefficient, 0.58; 99% CI, 0.58 to 0.60) was superior to all minimally invasive CO monitors (all comparisons P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: None of the minimally invasive monitors of CO performed well at all tested flows. Invasive mean arterial blood pressure most closely tracked CO change at critical flow states.

RéSUMé: CONTEXTE: L'état de choc est fréquent chez les patients blessés et en urgence absolue. La survie pendant le choc dépend fortement de la restauration rapide de l'oxygénation tissulaire avec des objectifs thérapeutiques basés sur l'optimisation du débit cardiaque (DC). Malgré la disponibilité clinique de nombreux moniteurs minimalement invasifs du DC, il n'existe que des données limitées sur leur performance pour appuyer leur utilisation. MéTHODE: À la suite de l'approbation du comité d'éthique de la recherche animale de l'Université de la Saskatchewan, nous avons évalué la performance et la capacité de suivi des tendances des appareils PiCCOplus™, FloTrac™ et CardioQ-ODM™ sur une vaste gamme d'état de DC chez des cochons. Nous avons également évalué la capacité de la tension artérielle moyenne invasive (iMAP) à suivre les changements de DC en utilisant une sonde périaortique de débit basée sur le temps de transit comme méthode de référence. L'analyse statistique a été réalisée avec fonction-échec, biais et précision, pourcentage d'erreur et régression linéaire à des conditions de DC de tous les débits, de faible débit (> 1 écart-type [ET] au-dessous de la moyenne) et de débit élevé (> 1 ET au-dessus de la moyenne). RéSULTATS: Nous avons effectué un total de 116 957 mesures de DC appariées. Les moniteurs non invasifs de la DC n'ont souvent pas réussi à fournir une valeur de DC (CardioQ-ODM : 40,6% de mesures échouées; intervalle de confiance [IC] de 99 %, 38,5 à 42,6; FloTrac : 9,6 % de mesures échouées; IC 99 %, 8,7 à 10,5; PiCCOplus : 4,7 % de mesures échouées; IC 99 %, 4,5 à 4,9; toutes les comparaisons, P < 0,001). La tension artérielle moyenne invasive n'a fourni aucun échec plus souvent que n'importe lequel des moniteurs de DC testés (toutes les comparaisons, P < 0,001). Le PiCCOplus était le plus interchangeable avec la sonde de débit à tous les états de débit : PiCCOplus (erreur de 20 %; IC 99 %, 19 à 22), CardioQ-ODM (erreur de 25 %; IC 99 %, 23 à 27), FloTrac (erreur de 34 %; IC 99 %, 32 à 38) (toutes les comparaisons, P < 0,001). Aux états de débit faible, les moniteurs CardioQ-ODM (erreur de 43 %; IC 99 %, 32 à 63) et FloTrac (erreur de 45 %; IC 99 %, 33 à 70) présentaient une interchangeabilité similaire (P = 0,07), tous deux supérieurs au PiCCOplus (erreur de 48 %; IC 99 %, 42 à 60) (P < 0,001). En ce qui concerne le suivi des tendances de DC, le CardioQ-ODM (coefficient de corrélation, 0,82; IC 99 %, 0,81 à 0,83) était statistiquement supérieur aux autres moniteurs, y compris au iMAP, mais à faibles débits, l'iMAP (coefficient de corrélation, 0,58; IC 99 %, 0,58 à 0,60) était supérieure à tous les moniteurs de DC minimalement invasifs (toutes les comparaisons, P < 0,001). CONCLUSION: Aucun des moniteurs de DC minimalement invasif n'a donné de bons résultats à tous les débits testés. La tension artérielle moyenne invasive était le moniteur qui a suivi de plus près les changements de DC dans des états critiques de débit.

Regional Anesthesia for Symptomatic Treatment of Stingray Envenomation.

Stingray envenomation is common in coastal regions around the world and may result in intense pain that can be challenging to manage. Described therapies involve hot water immersion and potentially other options such as opioid and nonopioid analgesics, removal of the foreign body, wound debridement, antibiotics for secondary infection, and tetanus toxoid. However, for some patients, this may not be enough. Peripheral nerve blockade is a frequently used perioperative analgesic technique, but it has rarely been described in the management of stingray envenomation. Here, we report a case of stingray envenomation in an otherwise healthy 36-y-old male with pain refractory to traditional therapies. After admission for pain control, the patient received an ultrasound-guided sciatic popliteal nerve block. Upon completion of the peripheral nerve block, the patient reported rapid and complete resolution of the intense pain, which did not return thereafter.

Intravenous dextrose versus ondansetron for prevention of postoperative vomiting in children: a randomized non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative vomiting (POV) in children is frequent. Dextrose-containing intravenous fluids in the perioperative period have shown improvement of POV in adults. Similar studies have not been done in children. AIM: The primary purpose was to study the efficacy of intraoperative intravenous dextrose for antiemetic prophylaxis in children undergoing ambulatory surgery. METHODS: A non-inferiority randomized clinical trial of healthy children (three to nine years old) undergoing ambulatory dental surgery was conducted. The control group received dexamethasone (0.15 mg·kg-1 iv) and ondansetron (0.05 mg·kg-1 iv); the intervention group received dexamethasone (0.15 mg·kg-1 iv) and intravenous 5% dextrose in 0.9% normal saline according to a weight-based maintenance rate. The primary outcome was POV in the postanesthetic care unit (PACU) within two hr after surgery. Secondary outcomes included POV within 24 hr from discharge and unplanned hospital admission. A non-inferiority analysis was conducted on the primary outcome using an absolute risk difference of 7.5% as the non-inferiority margin. RESULTS: Data from 290 patients were analyzed. Demographics and intraoperative anesthetic management were similar between groups. Vomiting in the PACU occurred in 7.6% and 3.5% of the dextrose and ondansetron groups, respectively, with a risk difference of 4.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], -1.0 to 9.5). Given that the upper limit of the 95% CI exceeded our non-inferiority margin, non-inferiority of dextrose compared with ondansetron was not shown. CONCLUSION: These results do not support the use of intravenous dextrose as a satisfactory alternative to ondansetron to prevent POV in ambulatory pediatric dental surgery patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01912807); registered 18 July 2013.

RéSUMé: CONTEXTE: Les vomissements postopératoires (VPO) sont fréquents chez l'enfant. Il a été démontré qu'en période périopératoire, les solutés intraveineux contenant du dextrose entraînaient une diminution des VPO chez l'adulte, mais des études similaires n'ont pas été réalisées auprès de populations pédiatriques. OBJECTIF: L'objectif principal était d'évaluer l'efficacité du dextrose intraveineux peropératoire en tant que prophylaxie antiémétique chez les enfants subissant une chirurgie ambulatoire. MéTHODE: Une étude clinique randomisée de non-infériorité a été réalisée auprès d'enfants en bonne santé (de trois à neuf ans) devant subir une chirurgie dentaire en ambulatoire. Le groupe témoin a reçu de la dexaméthasone (0,15 mg·kg−1 iv) et de l'ondansétron (0,05 mg·kg−1 iv); le groupe intervention a reçu de la dexaméthasone (0,15 mg·kg−1 iv) et du dextrose intraveineux 5 % dans une solution de normal salin 0,9 % selon une échelle basée sur le poids. Le critère d'évaluation principal était la présence de VPO en salle de réveil au cours des deux heures suivant la chirurgie. Les critères d'évaluation secondaires comprenaient les VPO au cours des 24 h suivant le congé et une admission non planifiée à l'hôpital. L'analyse de non-infériorité a été réalisée pour le critère d'évaluation primaire en se fondant sur une différence de risque absolu de 7,5 % comme marge de non-infériorité. RéSULTATS: Les données de 290 patients ont été analysées. Les données démographiques et de prise en charge anesthésique peropératoire étaient semblables entre les deux groupes. Des vomissements sont survenus en salle de réveil chez 7,6 % et 3,5 % des groupes dextrose et ondansétron, respectivement, avec une différence de risque de 4,2 % (intervalle de confiance [IC] 95 %, -1,0 à 9,5). Étant donné que la limite supérieure de l'IC 95 % excédait notre marge de non-infériorité, la non-infériorité du dextrose comparativement à l'ondansétron n'a pas été démontrée. CONCLUSION: Ces résultats n'appuient pas l'utilisation de dextrose intraveineux en tant qu'alternative à l'ondansétron afin de prévenir les VPO chez les patients pédiatriques de chirurgie dentaire ambulatoire. ENREGISTREMENT DE L'éTUDE: www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov (NCT01912807); enregistrée le 18 juillet 2013.

Modeling the size of small spills of pure volatile liquids for use in evaporation rate and air concentration modeling.

Exposure modeling is a valuable tool for assessing chemical vapor exposures that occur during transient events such as small spills of volatile liquids. Models are available to estimate liquid evaporation rates and resulting air concentrations. However, liquid evaporation rate models require the surface area of the puddle in order to provide vapor generation rates in terms of mass per time. This study developed an approach to model the surface area of small spills of pure liquids. A theoretical equation exists relating puddle depth to a liquid's surface tension, density, and contact angle. A contact angle is a characteristic of liquid-solid interactions at the edge of a puddle. If the depth of a puddle can be calculated and the volume of the liquid spilled is known, the surface area of the puddle can be determined. Values for density and surface tension are published. Contact angles, however, are not readily available. Five hundred and eighty experimental spills were conducted using acetone, ethanol and water. The effective contact angle for each spill was determined. Spill volumes varied from 1.0-30.0 mL. The height of the liquid release varied from 0-15 cm onto a variety of surfaces. The effective contact angle of a puddle was most strongly associated with the liquid's polarity. The height of the liquid release and type of surface had significant, but smaller effects on the puddle size. The effective contact angle of a puddle from a spill can be estimated as ln(Ï´eff) = 3.73 - 1.17 · 1χυ/f - 0.06 · h + S. In this equation, 1χυ/f is the polarity index of the liquid, h is the height of liquid release (cm), and S is a surface constant. Ï´eff can be used with the liquid density, surface tension and volume to calculate the surface area of the puddle. The surface area of the puddle can then be used in evaporation rate models to determine a vapor generation rate for input to vapor concentration models.

Evaluation of a social franchising and telemedicine programme and the care provided for childhood diarrhoea and pneumonia, Bihar, India.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact on the quality of the care provided for childhood diarrhoea and pneumonia in Bihar, India, of a large-scale, social franchising and telemedicine programme - the World Health Partners' Sky Program. METHODS: We investigated changes associated with the programme in the knowledge and performance of health-care providers by carrying out 810 assessments in a representative sample of providers in areas where the programme was and was not implemented. Providers were assessed using hypothetical patient vignettes and the standardized patient method both before and after programme implementation, in 2011 and 2014, respectively. Differences in providers' performance between implementation and nonimplementation areas were assessed using multivariate difference-in-difference linear regression models. FINDINGS: The programme did not significantly improve health-care providers' knowledge or performance with regard to childhood diarrhoea or pneumonia in Bihar. There was a persistent large gap between knowledge of appropriate care and the care actually delivered. CONCLUSION: Social franchising has received attention globally as a model for delivering high-quality care in rural areas in the developing world but supporting data are scarce. Our findings emphasize the need for sound empirical evidence before social franchising programmes are scaled up.

Population Policy: Abortion and Modern Contraception Are Substitutes.

A longstanding debate exists in population policy about the relationship between modern contraception and abortion. Although theory predicts that they should be substitutes, the empirical evidence is difficult to interpret. What is required is a large-scale intervention that alters the supply (or full price) of one or the other and, importantly, that does so in isolation (reproductive health programs often bundle primary health care and family planning-and in some instances, abortion services). In this article, we study Nepal's 2004 legalization of abortion provision and subsequent expansion of abortion services, an unusual and rapidly implemented policy meeting these requirements. Using four waves of rich individual-level data representative of fertile-age Nepalese women, we find robust evidence of substitution between modern contraception and abortion. This finding has important implications for public policy and foreign aid, suggesting that an effective strategy for reducing expensive and potentially unsafe abortions may be to expand the supply of modern contraceptives.

Low demand for nontraditional cookstove technologies.

Biomass combustion with traditional cookstoves causes substantial environmental and health harm. Nontraditional cookstove technologies can be efficacious in reducing this adverse impact, but they are adopted and used at puzzlingly low rates. This study analyzes the determinants of low demand for nontraditional cookstoves in rural Bangladesh by using both stated preference (from a nationally representative survey of rural women) and revealed preference (assessed by conducting a cluster-randomized trial of cookstove prices) approaches. We find consistent evidence across both analyses suggesting that the women in rural Bangladesh do not perceive indoor air pollution as a significant health hazard, prioritize other basic developmental needs over nontraditional cookstoves, and overwhelmingly rely on a free traditional cookstove technology and are therefore not willing to pay much for a new nontraditional cookstove. Efforts to improve health and abate environmental harm by promoting nontraditional cookstoves may be more successful by designing and disseminating nontraditional cookstoves with features valued more highly by users, such as reduction of operating costs, even when those features are not directly related to the cookstoves' health and environmental impacts.

An exploration of China's mortality decline under Mao: A provincial analysis, 1950-80.

Between 1950 and 1980, China experienced the most rapid sustained increase in life expectancy of any population in documented global history. We know of no study that has quantitatively assessed the relative importance of the various explanations proposed for this gain in survival. We have created and analysed a new, province-level panel data set spanning the decades between 1950 and 1980 by combining historical information from China's public health archives, official provincial yearbooks, and infant and child mortality records contained in the 1988 National Survey of Fertility and Contraception. Although exploratory, our results suggest that gains in school enrolment and public health campaigns together are associated with 55-70 per cent of China's dramatic reductions in infant and under-5 mortality during our study period. These results underscore the importance of non-medical determinants of population health, and suggest that, in some circumstances, general education of the population may amplify the effectiveness of public health interventions.

Effect of Chiranjeevi Yojana on institutional deliveries and neonatal and maternal outcomes in Gujarat, India: a difference-in-differences analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of the Chiranjeevi Yojana programme, a public-private partnership to improve maternal and neonatal health in Gujarat, India. METHODS: A household survey (n = 5597 households) was conducted in Gujarat to collect retrospective data on births within the preceding 5 years. In an observational study using a difference-in-differences design, the relationship between the Chiranjeevi Yojana programme and the probability of delivery in health-care institutions, the probability of obstetric complications and mean household expenditure for deliveries was subsequently examined. In multivariate regressions, individual and household characteristics as well as district and year fixed effects were controlled for. Data from the most recent District Level Household and Facility Survey (DLHS-3) wave conducted in Gujarat (n = 6484 households) were used in parallel analyses. FINDINGS: Between 2005 and 2010, the Chiranjeevi Yojana programme was not associated with a statistically significant change in the probability of institutional delivery (2.42 percentage points; 95% confidence interval, CI: -5.90 to 10.74) or of birth-related complications (6.16 percentage points; 95% CI: -2.63 to 14.95). Estimates using DLHS-3 data were similar. Analyses of household expenditures indicated that mean household expenditure for private-sector deliveries had either not fallen or had fallen very little under the Chiranjeevi Yojana programme. CONCLUSION: The Chiranjeevi Yojana programme appears to have had no significant impact on institutional delivery rates or maternal health outcomes. The absence of estimated reductions in household spending for private-sector deliveries deserves further study.

The changing relationship between bodyweight and longevity in high- and low-income countries.

Standard measures of bodyweight (overweight and obese, for example) fail to reflect differences across populations and technological progress over time. This paper builds on the pioneering work of Hans Waaler (1984) and Robert Fogel (1994) to empirically estimate how the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and longevity varies across high-, middle-, and low-income countries. Importantly, we show that these differences are so profound that the share of national populations above mortality-minimizing bodyweight is not clearly greater in countries with higher overweight and obesity rates (as traditionally defined)-and in fact, relative to current standards, a larger share of low-income countries' populations can be unhealthily heavy.

To promote adoption of household health technologies, think beyond health.

Health risks from poor malaria control, unsafe water, and indoor air pollution are responsible for an important share of the global disease burden-and they can be addressed by efficacious household health technologies that have existed for decades. However, coverage rates of these products among populations at risk remain disappointingly low. We conducted a review of the medical and public health literatures and found that health considerations alone are rarely sufficient motivation for households to adopt and use these technologies. In light of these findings, we argue that health education and persuasion campaigns by themselves are unlikely to be adequate. Instead, health policymakers and professionals must understand what users value beyond health and possibly reengineer health technologies with these concerns in mind.

Gender differences in worry during medical school.

OBJECTIVES: This research examined worry in medical students at various stages of training with reference to worries related to academic and clinical training, finances and relationships with peers. The study focused on gender differences in worries, testing the notion that being married or being in a long-term or cohabitating relationship with a partner would be linked to increased worry among women, but decreased worry among men. Additional goals included examining the relationship between worry and the seeking of counselling, and investigating the disadvantage for medical students associated with living with parents. METHODS: Data collected serially on class cohorts at one western US medical school yielded 868 responses from medical students, which were analysed using general linear models, generalised linear models and generalised estimation equations. RESULTS: Among four types of worry, academic and financial worries were similarly dominant (p < 0.001); financial worries were found to increase over the course of medical training (p < 0.001). Men reported more worry than women (p < 0.001). Gender differences were qualified by marital status (p = 0.007). Being married was linked to higher levels of academic and financial worry among women, whereas for men marriage was linked to lower academic, but higher financial worry (p < 0.001). Living with parents was always associated with a higher level of worry (p < 0.0001). Married male students were more likely to seek counselling than unmarried male students, whereas this pattern was reversed for female students (p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms that both academic and financial stress represent the greatest sources of worry in medical students. It also represents the first research to demonstrate higher levels of worry in male than female medical students, which may be evidence of women's increased representation in the medical school population. These data also support the persistence of traditional gender roles in the marriages of medical students; marriage is related to an increased psychological burden in women in comparison with men.

The importance of wage loss in the financial burden of illness: Longitudinal evidence from India.

BACKGROUND: A key aim of Universal Health Coverage (UHC) is to protect individuals and households against the financial risk of illness, and large-scale health insurance expansions are a central focus of the UHC agenda. Importantly, however, health insurance does not protect against a key dimension of financial risk associated with illness: forgone wage income. In this paper, we quantify the economic burden of illness in India attributable - separately - to wage loss and to medical care spending, as well as differences in them across the socio-economic distribution. METHODS: We use data from two longitudinal Indian household surveys: (i) the Village Dynamics in South Asia (VDSA) survey (1300 households surveyed every month for 60 months between 2010 and 2015) and (ii) the Indian Human Development Survey (IHDS) (more than 40,000 households surveyed in 2005 and again in 2011). Our regression models include a series of fixed effects that account for time-invariant household- (or individual-) level and time-varying unobservables common across households. FINDINGS: We find that, in the VDSA sample, wage loss accounts for more than 80% of the total economic burden of illness among the poorest households, but only about 20% of the economic burden of illness among the most affluent. Estimates from the IHDS sample confirm that this socio-economic gradient is present in the Indian population generally. CONCLUSIONS: Wage loss accounts for a substantial share of the total economic burden of illness in India - and disproportionately so among the poorest households. Our findings imply that if UHC is to achieve its objective of protecting households against the financial risk of illness - particularly poor households, the inclusion of wage loss insurance or another illness-related income replacement benefit is needed.

U.S. global health aid policy and family planning in sub-Saharan Africa.

The Trump administration reinstated and expanded the Mexico City Policy (MCP) in 2017 as the Protecting Life in Global Health Assistance (PLGHA) policy, forbidding international organizations receiving all U.S. health assistance from promoting abortion. Existing evidence suggests that abortion rates rise under the MCP, but the direct effect of U.S. funding restrictions on supply and use of family planning has received less attention. By studying PLGHA's impact on health service delivery providers and women in eight sub-Saharan African countries, we are able to fill this gap. We find that health facilities provide fewer family planning services, including emergency contraception, and that women are less likely to use contraception and more likely to have given birth recently under the policy. These findings suggest that PLGHA has important unintended consequences that are detrimental to reproductive health and the autonomous decision-making of health service providers and women.

HIV development assistance and adult mortality in Africa.

CONTEXT: The effect of global health initiatives on population health is uncertain. Between 2003 and 2008, the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), the largest initiative ever devoted to a single disease, operated intensively in 12 African focus countries. The initiative's effect on all-cause adult mortality is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether PEPFAR was associated with relative changes in adult mortality in the countries and districts where it operated most intensively. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Using person-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, we conducted cross-country and within-country analyses of adult mortality (annual probability of death per 1000 adults between 15 and 59 years old) and PEPFAR's activities. Across countries, we compared adult mortality in 9 African focus countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia) with 18 African nonfocus countries from 1998 to 2008. We performed subnational analyses using information on PEPFAR's programmatic intensity in Tanzania and Rwanda. We employed difference-in-difference analyses with fixed effects for countries and years as well as personal and time-varying area characteristics. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Adult all-cause mortality. RESULTS: We analyzed information on 1 538 612 adults, including 60 303 deaths, from 41 surveys in 27 countries, 9 of them focus countries. In 2003, age-adjusted adult mortality was 8.3 per 1000 adults in the focus countries (95% CI, 8.0-8.6) and 8.5 per 1000 adults (95% CI, 8.3-8.7) in the nonfocus countries. In 2008, mortality was 4.1 per 1000 (95% CI, 3.6-4.6) in the focus countries and 6.9 per 1000 (95% CI, 6.3-7.5) in the nonfocus countries. The adjusted odds ratio of mortality among adults living in focus countries compared with nonfocus countries between 2004 and 2008 was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.72-0.99; P = .03). Within Tanzania and Rwanda, the adjusted odds ratio of mortality for adults living in districts where PEPFAR operated more intensively was 0.83 (95% CI, 0.72-0.97; P = .02) and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.56-0.99; P = .04), respectively, compared with districts where it operated less intensively. CONCLUSIONS: Between 2004 and 2008, all-cause adult mortality declined more in PEPFAR focus countries relative to nonfocus countries. It was not possible to determine whether PEPFAR was associated with mortality effects separate from reductions in HIV-specific deaths.

A crowd of BashTheBug volunteers reproducibly and accurately measure the minimum inhibitory concentrations of 13 antitubercular drugs from photographs of 96-well broth microdilution plates.

Tuberculosis is a respiratory disease that is treatable with antibiotics. An increasing prevalence of resistance means that to ensure a good treatment outcome it is desirable to test the susceptibility of each infection to different antibiotics. Conventionally, this is done by culturing a clinical sample and then exposing aliquots to a panel of antibiotics, each being present at a pre-determined concentration, thereby determining if the sample isresistant or susceptible to each sample. The minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of a drug is the lowestconcentration that inhibits growth and is a more useful quantity but requires each sample to be tested at a range ofconcentrations for each drug. Using 96-well broth micro dilution plates with each well containing a lyophilised pre-determined amount of an antibiotic is a convenient and cost-effective way to measure the MICs of several drugs at once for a clinical sample. Although accurate, this is still an expensive and slow process that requires highly-skilled and experienced laboratory scientists. Here we show that, through the BashTheBug project hosted on the Zooniverse citizen science platform, a crowd of volunteers can reproducibly and accurately determine the MICs for 13 drugs and that simply taking the median or mode of 11-17 independent classifications is sufficient. There is therefore a potential role for crowds to support (but not supplant) the role of experts in antibiotic susceptibility testing.

Tuberculosis is a bacterial respiratory infection that kills about 1.4 million people worldwide each year. While antibiotics can cure the condition, the bacterium responsible for this disease, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, is developing resistance to these treatments. Choosing which antibiotics to use to treat the infection more carefully may help to combat the growing threat of drug-resistant bacteria. One way to find the best choice is to test how an antibiotic affects the growth of M. tuberculosis in the laboratory. To speed up this process, laboratories test multiple drugs simultaneously. They do this by growing bacteria on plates with 96 wells and injecting individual antibiotics in to each well at different concentrations. The Comprehensive Resistance Prediction for Tuberculosis (CRyPTIC) consortium has used this approach to collect and analyse bacteria from over 20,000 tuberculosis patients. An image of the 96-well plate is then captured and the level of bacterial growth in each well is assessed by laboratory scientists. But this work is difficult, time-consuming, and subjective, even for tuberculosis experts. Here, Fowler et al. show that enlisting citizen scientists may help speed up this process and reduce errors that arise from analysing such a large dataset. In April 2017, Fowler et al. launched the project 'BashTheBug' on the Zooniverse citizen science platform where anyone can access and analyse the images from the CRyPTIC consortium. They found that a crowd of inexperienced volunteers were able to consistently and accurately measure the concentration of antibiotics necessary to inhibit the growth of M. tuberculosis. If the concentration is above a pre-defined threshold, the bacteria are considered to be resistant to the treatment. A consensus result could be reached by calculating the median value of the classifications provided by as few as 17 different BashTheBug participants. The work of BashTheBug volunteers has reduced errors in the CRyPTIC project data, which has been used for several other studies. For instance, the World Health Organization (WHO) has also used the data to create a catalogue of genetic mutations associated with antibiotics resistance in M. tuberculosis. Enlisting citizen scientists has accelerated research on tuberculosis and may help with other pressing public health concerns.