Risk Ratio and Risk Difference Estimation in Case-cohort Studies.

BACKGROUND: In case-cohort studies with binary outcomes, ordinary logistic regression analyses have been widely used because of their computational simplicity. However, the resultant odds ratio estimates cannot be interpreted as relative risk measures unless the event rate is low. The risk ratio and risk difference are more favorable outcome measures that are directly interpreted as effect measures without the rare disease assumption. METHODS: We provide pseudo-Poisson and pseudo-normal linear regression methods for estimating risk ratios and risk differences in analyses of case-cohort studies. These multivariate regression models are fitted by weighting the inverses of sampling probabilities. Also, the precisions of the risk ratio and risk difference estimators can be improved using auxiliary variable information, specifically by adapting the calibrated or estimated weights, which are readily measured on all samples from the whole cohort. Finally, we provide computational code in R (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) that can easily perform these methods. RESULTS: Through numerical analyses of artificially simulated data and the National Wilms Tumor Study data, accurate risk ratio and risk difference estimates were obtained using the pseudo-Poisson and pseudo-normal linear regression methods. Also, using the auxiliary variable information from the whole cohort, precisions of these estimators were markedly improved. CONCLUSION: The ordinary logistic regression analyses may provide uninterpretable effect measure estimates, and the risk ratio and risk difference estimation methods are effective alternative approaches for case-cohort studies. These methods are especially recommended under situations in which the event rate is not low.

Chromosome aberrations among atomic-bomb survivors exposed in utero: updated analysis accounting for revised radiation doses and smoking.

A previous study of peripheral blood lymphocyte translocations around age 40 among atomic-bomb survivors exposed in utero revealed no overall association with radiation dose-despite a clear association between translocations and dose among their mothers-but the data suggested an increase at doses below 100 mGy with a definite peak. That analysis of the in utero-exposed survivors did not adjust for their subsequent smoking behavior, an established cause of chromosomal aberrations, or their subsequent exposures to medical irradiation, a potential mediator. In addition, atomic-bomb survivor radiation dose estimates have subsequently been updated and refined. We therefore re-estimated the dose response using the latest DS02R1 dose estimates and adjusting for smoking as well as for city and proximal-distal location at the time of exposure to the atomic bomb. Sex of the survivor, mother's age around the time of conception, and approximate trimester of gestation at the time of exposure were also considered as explanatory variables and modifiers. Precision of the estimated dose response was slightly lower due to greater variability near zero in the updated dose estimates, but there was little change in evidence of a low-dose increase and still no suggestion of an overall increase across the entire dose range. Adjustment for smoking behavior led to a decline in background number of translocations (the dose-response intercept), but smoking did not interact with dose overall (across the entire dose range). Adjustment for medical irradiation did not alter the association between dose and translocation frequency. Sex, mother's age, and trimester were not associated with number of translocations, nor did they interact with dose overall. Interactions with dose in the low-dose range could not be evaluated because of numerical instability.

Longitudinal changes in red blood cell distribution width decades after radiation exposure in atomic-bomb survivors.

Red blood cell distribution width (RDW), which generally increases with age, is a risk marker for morbidity and mortality in various diseases. We investigated the association between elevated RDW and prior radiation exposure by examining longitudinal RDW changes in 4204 atomic-bomb survivors over 15 years. A positive association was found between RDW and radiation dose, wherein RDW increased by 0·18%/Gy. This radiation-associated effect increased as the participants aged. Elevated RDW was also associated with higher all-cause mortality. The biological mechanisms underlying these observed associations merit further investigation.

Mortality among individuals exposed to atomic bomb radiation in utero: 1950-2012.

We examined the mortality risks among 2463 individuals who were exposed in utero to atomic bomb radiation in Hiroshima or Nagasaki in August 1945 and were followed from October 1950 through 2012. Individual estimates of mother's weighted absorbed uterine dose (DS02R1) were used. Poisson regression method was used to estimate the radiation-associated excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for cause-specific mortality. Head size, birth weight, and parents' survival status were evaluated as potential mediators of radiation effect. There were 339 deaths (216 males and 123 females) including deaths from solid cancer (n = 137), lymphohematopoietic cancer (n = 8), noncancer disease (n = 134), external cause (n = 56), and unknown cause (n = 4). Among males, the unadjusted ERR/Gy (95% CI) was increased for noncancer disease mortality (1.22, 0.10-3.14), but not for solid cancer mortality (- 0.18, < - 0.77-0.95); the unadjusted ERR/Gy for external cause mortality was not statistically significant (0.28, < - 0.60-2.36). Among females, the unadjusted ERRs/Gy were increased for solid cancer (2.24, 0.44-5.58), noncancer (2.86, 0.56-7.64), and external cause mortality (2.57, 0.20-9.19). The ERRs/Gy adjusted for potential mediators did not change appreciably for solid cancer mortality, but decreased notably for noncancer mortality (0.39, < - 0.43-1.91 for males; 1.48, - 0.046-4.55 for females) and external cause mortality (0.10, < - 0.57-1.96 for males; 1.38, < - 0.46-5.95 for females). In conclusion, antenatal radiation exposure is a consistent risk factor for increased solid cancer mortality among females, but not among males. The effect of exposure to atomic bomb radiation on noncancer disease and external cause mortality among individuals exposed in utero was mediated through small head size, low birth weight, and parental loss.

Radiation effects on atherosclerosis in atomic bomb survivors: a cross-sectional study using structural equation modeling.

Past reports indicated that total-body irradiation at low to moderate doses could be responsible for cardiovascular disease risks, but the mechanism remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between radiation exposure and atherosclerosis, an underlying pathology of cardiovascular diseases, in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. We performed a cross-sectional study measuring 14 clinical-physiological atherosclerosis indicators during clinical exams from 2010 to 2014 in 3274 participants of the Adult Health Study cohort. Multivariable analyses were performed by using a structural equation model with latent factors representing underlying atherosclerotic pathologies: (1) arterial stiffness, (2) calcification, and (3) plaque　as measured with indicators chosen a priori on the basis of clinical-physiological knowledge. Radiation was linearly associated with calcification (standardized coefficient per Gy 0.15, 95 % confidence interval: CI [0.070, 0.23]) and plaque (0.11, 95 % CI [0.029, 0.20]), small associations that were comparable to about 2 years of aging per Gy of radiation exposure, but not with arterial stiffness (0.036, 95 % CI [- 0.025, 0.095]). The model fitted better and had narrower confidence intervals than separate ordinary regression models explaining individual indicators independently. The associations were less evident when the dose range was restricted to a maximum of 2 or 1 Gy. By combining individual clinical-physiological indicators that are correlated because of common, underlying atherosclerotic pathologies, we found a small, but significant association of radiation with atherosclerosis.

Radiation risk of incident colorectal cancer by anatomical site among atomic bomb survivors: 1958-2009.

Radiation effects on colorectal cancer rates, adjusted for smoking, alcohol intake and frequency of meat consumption and body mass index (BMI) by anatomical subsite (proximal colon, distal colon and rectum) were examined in a cohort of 105,444 atomic bomb survivors. Poisson regression methods were used to describe radiation-associated excess relative risks (ERR) and excess absolute rates (EAR) for the 1958-2009 period. There were 2,960 first primary colorectal cancers including 894 proximal, 871 distal and 1,046 rectal cancers. Smoking, alcohol intake and BMI were associated with subsite-specific cancer background rates. Significant linear dose-responses were found for total colon (sex-averaged ERR/Gy for 70 years old exposed at age 30 = 0.63, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.34; 0.98), proximal [ERR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.32; 1.44] and distal colon cancers [ERR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.04; 0.97], but not for rectal cancer [ERR = 0.023, 95% CI: -0.081; 0.13]. The ERRs for proximal and distal colon cancers were not significantly different (p = 0.41). The ERR decreased with attained age for total colon, but not for proximal colon cancer, and with calendar year for distal colon cancer. The ERRs and EARs did not vary by age at exposure, except for decreasing trend in EAR for proximal colon cancer. In conclusion, ionizing radiation is associated with increased risk of proximal and distal colon cancers. The ERR for proximal cancer persists over time, but that for distal colon cancer decreases. There continues to be no indication of radiation effects on rectal cancer incidence in this population.

Stepwise approach to SNP-set analysis illustrated with the Metabochip and colorectal cancer in Japanese Americans of the Multiethnic Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Common variants have explained less than the amount of heritability expected for complex diseases, which has led to interest in less-common variants and more powerful approaches to the analysis of whole-genome scans. Because of low frequency (low statistical power), less-common variants are best analyzed using SNP-set methods such as gene-set or pathway-based analyses. However, there is as yet no clear consensus regarding how to focus in on potential risk variants following set-based analyses. We used a stepwise, telescoping approach to analyze common- and rare-variant data from the Illumina Metabochip array to assess genomic association with colorectal cancer (CRC) in the Japanese sub-population of the Multiethnic Cohort (676 cases, 7180 controls). We started with pathway analysis of SNPs that are in genes and pathways having known mechanistic roles in colorectal cancer, then focused on genes within the pathways that evidenced association with CRC, and finally assessed individual SNPs within the genes that evidenced association. Pathway SNPs downloaded from the dbSNP database were cross-matched with Metabochip SNPs and analyzed using the logistic kernel machine regression approach (logistic SNP-set kernel-machine association test, or sequence kernel association test; SKAT) and related methods. RESULTS: The TGF-ß and WNT pathways were associated with all CRC, and the WNT pathway was associated with colon cancer. Individual genes demonstrating the strongest associations were TGFBR2 in the TGF-ß pathway and SMAD7 (which is involved in both the TGF-ß and WNT pathways). As partial validation of our approach, a known CRC risk variant in SMAD7 (in both the TGF-ß and WNT pathways: rs11874392) was associated with CRC risk in our data. We also detected two novel candidate CRC risk variants (rs13075948 and rs17025857) in TGFBR2, a gene known to be associated with CRC risk. CONCLUSIONS: A stepwise, telescoping approach identified some potentially novel risk variants associated with colorectal cancer, so it may be a useful method for following up on results of set-based SNP analyses. Further work is required to assess the statistical characteristics of the approach, and additional applications should aid in better clarifying its utility.

Choice reaction time and grip strength as predictors of cardiovascular mortality in middle-aged and elderly Japanese: from the Radiation Effects Research Foundation Adult Health study.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive function and physical function are important predictors of mortality. AIM: To investigate whether or not reaction time (RT) as a cognitive function and grip strength (GS) as a physical function were associated, alone or in combination, with mortality from heart disease or stroke. METHODS: The subjects included 4901 Adult Health Study participants in Hiroshima who had undergone RT and GS measurements, were 35-74 years old at baseline (1970-1972) and were followed until the end of 2007. RESULTS: After adjustment for other potential risk factors, RT was positively and GS was negatively associated with mortality from both heart disease and stroke. These associations were persistent in the model when adjusting simultaneously for RT, GS and other factors, but hazard ratios were attenuated. When we evaluated the associations by baseline age and gender, we found the greater hazard ratios for RT in the younger cohort, but no clear modification by age for GS. The interaction between RT and GS was statistically significant (P = 0.012) for stroke mortality. In the stratified analyses divided using the age-specific median value of RT or GS, the estimated hazard ratio of stroke mortality for RT was significant in participants with weak or strong GS but greater in the former, and for GS, it was only significant in participants with slow RT. CONCLUSION: RT and GS, alone and in combination, predicted heart disease and stroke mortalities. Interventions for both cognitive function and physical function may be beneficial for the prevention of cardiovascular disease mortality.

A semiparametric approach to evaluate the harm of low-dose exposures.

While moderate to high levels of radiation exposure is known to cause adverse health effects, there is still controversy about the lowest dose that could be harmful. Given that epidemiological studies of practical sizes are unlikely to provide sufficient statistical power to detect a small risk in the low-dose range of concern, greater emphasis should be given to evaluating low-dose risk uncertainty. Using simulations under various dose-response relationships with a threshold, we show that a conventional approach based on simple parametric models (e.g. the linear model with or without a threshold) can be inefficient, biased and/or inaccurate in uncertainty evaluations at low doses. Alternatively, we consider a Bayesian semiparametric model of a connected piecewise-linear function allowing for autocorrelations between adjacent line sections. With no specific assumption, this can describe various plausible dose-response curves while appropriately handling the risk uncertainty. In particular, it can relatively accurately evaluate the dose range in which a threshold might exist, while retaining statistical power for a small risk increase after the threshold. As an illustration, we analyse cancer incidence data of Japanese atomic bomb survivors, a primary epidemiological source of quantitative risk estimates for health effects from radiation exposure.

A Bayesian Semiparametric Model for Radiation Dose-Response Estimation.

In evaluating the risk of exposure to health hazards, characterizing the dose-response relationship and estimating acceptable exposure levels are the primary goals. In analyses of health risks associated with exposure to ionizing radiation, while there is a clear agreement that moderate to high radiation doses cause harmful effects in humans, little has been known about the possible biological effects at low doses, for example, below 0.1 Gy, which is the dose range relevant to most radiation exposures of concern today. A conventional approach to radiation dose-response estimation based on simple parametric forms, such as the linear nonthreshold model, can be misleading in evaluating the risk and, in particular, its uncertainty at low doses. As an alternative approach, we consider a Bayesian semiparametric model that has a connected piece-wise-linear dose-response function with prior distributions having an autoregressive structure among the random slope coefficients defined over closely spaced dose categories. With a simulation study and application to analysis of cancer incidence data among Japanese atomic bomb survivors, we show that this approach can produce smooth and flexible dose-response estimation while reasonably handling the risk uncertainty at low doses and elsewhere. With relatively few assumptions and modeling options to be made by the analyst, the method can be particularly useful in assessing risks associated with low-dose radiation exposures.

Naive CD4 T Cells Highly Expressing the Inflammatory Chemokine Receptor CXCR3 Increase with Age and Radiation Exposure in Atomic Bomb Survivors.

The numbers of naive T cells that react to novel pathogens not yet encountered by an immune system, decrease during aging, mainly due to age-associated involution of the thymus. CD45RA+ naive CD4 T cells consist of heterogeneous populations, including highly CXCR3-expressing cells that appear during the homeostatic proliferation of naive T cells and exhibit enhanced type-1 inflammatory phenotypes. Based on previous evidence of radiation-associated reductions in thymic function and peripheral blood naive CD4 T cells, we hypothesized that the homeostatic proliferation of naive CD4 T cells compensates for deficits in peripheral T-cell populations after radiation injury, which may increase the proportion of CXCR3high cells in naive CD4 T cells and enhance inflammation. The statistical models employed in this study revealed positive associations between the number of CXCR3high naive CD4 T cells and age as well as radiation dose among 580 Hiroshima atomic bomb survivors. In addition, the CXCR3high cells in these survivors increased not only with the levels of homeostatic cytokines, IL6 and IL7, but also with those of inflammatory indicators, CXCL10 and CRP. These results suggest that thymic T-cell production deficiency due to radiation and aging results in enhanced homeostatic proliferation that drives the appearance of CXCR3high naive CD4 T cells poised for an inflammatory response. Molecular mechanisms and clinical relevance of increasing CXCR3high cells in naive CD4 T populations should be further investigated in the context of inflammatory disease development long after radiation exposure.

Establishment and activity of the planning and acting network for low dose radiation research in Japan (PLANET): 2016-2023.

The Planning and Acting Network for Low Dose Radiation Research in Japan (PLANET) was established in 2017 in response to the need for an all-Japan network of experts. It serves as an academic platform to propose strategies and facilitate collaboration to improve quantitative estimation of health risks from ionizing radiation at low-doses and low-dose-rates. PLANET established Working Group 1 (Dose-Rate Effects in Animal Experiments) to consolidate findings from animal experiments on dose-rate effects in carcinogenesis. Considering international trends in this field as well as the situation in Japan, PLANET updated its priority research areas for Japanese low-dose radiation research in 2023 to include (i) characterization of low-dose and low-dose-rate radiation risk, (ii) factors to be considered for individualization of radiation risk, (iii) biological mechanisms of low-dose and low-dose-rate radiation effects and (iv) integration of epidemiology and biology. In this context, PLANET established Working Group 2 (Dose and Dose-Rate Mapping for Radiation Risk Studies) to identify the range of doses and dose rates at which observable effects on different endpoints have been reported; Working Group 3 (Species- and Organ-Specific Dose-Rate Effects) to consider the relevance of stem cell dynamics in radiation carcinogenesis of different species and organs; and Working Group 4 (Research Mapping for Radiation-Related Carcinogenesis) to sort out relevant studies, including those on non-mutagenic effects, and to identify priority research areas. These PLANET activities will be used to improve the risk assessment and to contribute to the revision of the next main recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection.

Evaluation of systemic markers of inflammation in atomic-bomb survivors with special reference to radiation and age effects.

Past exposure to atomic bomb (A-bomb) radiation has exerted various long-lasting deleterious effects on the health of survivors. Some of these effects are seen even after >60 yr. In this study, we evaluated the subclinical inflammatory status of 442 A-bomb survivors, in terms of 8 inflammation-related cytokines or markers, comprised of plasma levels of reactive oxygen species (ROS), interleukin (IL)-6, tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α), C-reactive protein (CRP), IL-4, IL-10, and immunoglobulins, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR). The effects of past radiation exposure and natural aging on these markers were individually assessed and compared. Next, to assess the biologically significant relationship between inflammation and radiation exposure or aging, which was masked by the interrelationship of those cytokines/markers, we used multivariate statistical analyses and evaluated the systemic markers of inflammation as scores being calculated by linear combinations of selected cytokines and markers. Our results indicate that a linear combination of ROS, IL-6, CRP, and ESR generated a score that was the most indicative of inflammation and revealed clear dependences on radiation dose and aging that were found to be statistically significant. The results suggest that collectively, radiation exposure, in conjunction with natural aging, may enhance the persistent inflammatory status of A-bomb survivors.

Female "Paradox" in Atrial Fibrillation-Role of Left Truncation Due to Competing Risks.

Female sex in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is a controversial and paradoxical risk factor for stroke-controversial because it increases the risk of stroke only among older women of some ethnicities and paradoxical because it appears to contradict male predominance in cardiovascular diseases. However, the underlying mechanism remains unclear. We conducted simulations to examine the hypothesis that this sex difference is generated non-causally through left truncation due to competing risks (CR) such as coronary artery diseases, which occur more frequently among men than among women and share common unobserved causes with stroke. We modeled the hazards of stroke and CR with correlated heterogeneous risk. We assumed that some people died of CR before AF diagnosis and calculated the hazard ratio of female sex in the left-truncated AF population. In this situation, female sex became a risk factor for stroke in the absence of causal roles. The hazard ratio was attenuated in young populations without left truncation and in populations with low CR and high stroke incidence, which is consistent with real-world observations. This study demonstrated that spurious risk factors can be identified through left truncation due to correlated CR. Female sex in patients with AF may be a paradoxical risk factor for stroke.

Neurocognitive Function in Aged Survivors Exposed to Atomic Bomb Radiation In Utero: The Radiation Effects Research Foundation Adult Health Study.

Although some adverse effects on neurocognitive function have been reported in children and adolescents irradiated prenatally during the atomic bombings and the Chernobyl nuclear accident, little information is available for effects on the elderly. Here we evaluate the effects of prenatal exposure to atomic bomb radiation on subjective neurocognitive function in aged survivors. To evaluate neurocognitive impairment, we mailed the Neurocognitive Questionnaire (NCQ), a self-administered scale, to prenatally exposed survivors, including clinic visitors and non-visitors at the time of the 2011 and 2013 Adult Health Study (AHS) examinations. We received replies from 444 individuals (mean age, 66.9 ± 0.6 years). After adjusting for sex, city, and educational background, we found no significant effects of radiation, clinic visit, or interaction between radiation and clinic visit on the scores of the 4 NCQ factors of metacognition, emotional regulation, motivation/organization, and processing speed. Even in analyses considering gestational age at the time of the bombings, none of the 4 NCQ factor scores was related to maternal uterine dose. There remains the limitation that this study consisted of healthy survivors, but we found no significant radiation effect on late-life cognition in people prenatally exposed to atomic bomb radiation.

Radiation Effects on Late-life Neurocognitive Function in Childhood Atomic Bomb Survivors: A Radiation Effects Research Foundation Adult Health Study.

High-dose radiation in childhood such as is used in radiation therapy causes cognitive decline, but there is insufficient research on the cognitive effects of low- to medium-dose radiation. We aimed to reveal the association between atomic bomb radiation exposure in childhood and late-life neurocognitive function. In 2011 and 2013, we mailed the Neurocognitive Questionnaire (NCQ) to subjects who were 12 years old or younger at the time of the atomic bombing. We converted the four NCQ subscales (metacognition, emotional regulation, motivation/organization, and processing speed) to T scores and defined the highest 10% of the controls (exposure dose < 5 mGy) as impaired. We used a generalized linear mixed model to evaluate the effect of radiation exposure on T scores and percentage impaired. We enrolled 859 participants. At the time of the bombing, the mean (SD) age was 6.7 (3.8) years for the control (N = 390) and 6.1 (3.8) years for the exposed (N = 469). At the time of replying to the questionnaire, the mean age of all the participants was 73.7 (3.8) years of age. After adjusting for cofactors, older age was related to the decline of all neurocognitive subscales. Sex and education level had relevance to some of the subscales. For neurocognitive function, exposure dose was not related except to percentage impaired, motivation/organization. Late-life neurocognitive function in atomic bomb survivors exposed as children was associated with age, but not clearly with radiation dose. More studies are needed to evaluate the effect of low-dose radiation during childhood on long-term neurocognitive function.

Massive expansion of multiple clones in the mouse hematopoietic system long after whole-body X-irradiation.

Clonal hematopoiesis (CH) is prevalent in the elderly and associates with hematologic malignancy and cardiovascular disease. Although the risk of developing these diseases increases with radiation doses in atomic-bomb survivors, the causal relationship between radiation exposure and CH is unclear. This study investigated whether radiation exposure induces CH in mice 12-18 months after 3-Gy whole-body irradiation. We found radiation-associated increases in peripheral blood myeloid cells and red blood cell distribution width (RDW). Deep sequencing of bone marrow and non-hematopoietic tissue cells revealed recurrent somatic mutations specifically in the hematopoietic system in 11 of 12 irradiated mice but none in 6 non-irradiated mice. The irradiated mice possessed mutations with variant allele frequencies (VAFs) of > 0.02 on an average of 5.8 per mouse; mutations with VAFs of > 0.1 and/or deletion were prevalent. Examining hematopoietic stem/progenitor cells in two irradiated mice revealed several mutations co-existing in the same clones and multiple independent clones that deliver 60-80% of bone marrow nuclear cells. Our results indicate development of massive CH due to radiation exposure. Moreover, we have characterized mutations in radiation-induced CH.

Biologically-based modeling of radiation risk and biomarker prevalence for papillary thyroid cancer in Japanese a-bomb survivors 1958-2005.

PURPOSE: Thyroid cancer of papillary histology (PTC) is the dominant type in radio-epidemiological cohorts established after nuclear accidents or warfare. Studies on post-Chernobyl PTC and on thyroid cancer in the life span study (LSS) of Japanese a-bomb survivors consistently revealed high radiation risk after exposure during childhood and adolescence. For post-Chernobyl risk assessment overexpression of the CLIP2 gene was proposed as molecular biomarker to separate radiogenic from sporadic PTC. Based on such binary marker a biologically-based risk model of PTC carcinogenesis has been developed for observational Chernobyl data. The model featured two independent molecular pathways of disease development, of which one was associated with radiation exposure. To gain credibility the concept for a mechanistic risk model must be based on general biological features which transcend findings in a single cohort. The purpose of the present study is therefore to demonstrate portability of the model concept by application to PTC incidence data in the LSS. By exploiting the molecular two-path concept we improve the determination of the probability of radiation causing cancer (POC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The current analysis uses thyroid cancer incidence data of the LSS with thyroid cancer diagnoses and papillary histology (n = 292) from the follow-up period between 1958 and 2005. Risk analysis was performed with both descriptive and biologically-based models. RESULTS: Judged by goodness-of-fit all applied models described the data almost equally well. They yielded similar risk estimates in cohorts post-Chernobyl and LSS. The preferred mechanistic model was selected by biological plausibility. It reflected important features of an imperfect radiation marker which are not easily addressed by descriptive models. Precise model predictions of marker prevalence in strata of epidemiological covariables can be tested by molecular measurements. Application of the radiation-related molecular pathway from our preferred model in retrospective risk assessment decreases the threshold dose for 50% POC from 0.33 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.18; 0.64) Gy to 0.04 (95% CI 0.01; 0.19) Gy for females and from 0.43 (95% CI 0.17; 1.84) Gy to 0.19 (95% CI 0.05; 1.00) Gy for males. These improvements are still not sufficient to separate radiation-induced from sporadic PTC cases at very low doses <0.015 Gy typical for the Fukushima accident. CONCLUSIONS: Successful application of our preferred mechanistic model to LSS incidence data confirms and improves the biological two-path concept of radiation-induced PTC. Model predictions suggest further molecular validation studies to consolidate the basis of biologically-based risk estimation.

Increased cancer mortality among Japanese individuals with hyperinsulinemia.

AIMS: To evaluate the effect of hyperinsulinemia on cancer death, we clarified the association between hyperinsulinemia and cancer mortality among Japanese individuals. METHODS: All the participants (5586 men and 6652 women) lived in Hiroshima City, underwent a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test between 1994 and 2012, and were followed for mortality until August 2013. A systematic review of death certificates was used to confirm the cause of death. RESULTS: During the follow-up period (median, 10.0 years), 587 participants died of cancer. Lung cancer was the most common cause of organ-specific death. We divided the participants into 3 groups according to the tertiles of fasting immunoreactive insulin (FIRI) levels (low, middle, and high groups). The high group had the highest mortality rate (5.5 per 1000 person-years). The hazard ratio (HR) for cancer mortality of the high group after adjustment for possible confounders, such as age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, alcohol intake, and radiation effects (model 1), was significantly higher than that of the low group (HR, 1.55; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.23-1.95). In model 2 (model 1 plus fasting plasma glucose) and model 3 (model 1 plus HbA1c), the multivariate HRs for cancer mortality were 1.46 (95% CI, 1.15-1.85) and 1.48 (95% CI, 1.17-1.87), respectively.The HR for cancer death at high FIRI levels (per 1 µU/mL) was 1.04 (95% CI, 1.02-1.05) in all participants after adjusting for fasting plasma glucose level and other confounders. In the subgroup analysis, the HRs were 1.03 (95% CI, 0.98-1.09), 1.05 (95% CI, 1.02-1.08), and 1.04 (95% CI, 1.02-1.06) in the normal, prediabetes, and diabetes group, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Hyperinsulinemia was associated with a high risk of cancer mortality and may be an important link between cancer mortality and diabetes or prediabetes.

Association between a biomarker of glucose spikes, 1,5-anhydroglucitol, and cancer mortality.

INTRODUCTION: 1,5-Anhydroglucitol (1,5-AG) is a biomarker of glucose spikes. To evaluate the effect of acute glucose excursions on cancer death, we clarified the association between 1,5-AG and cancer mortality among Japanese individuals with normal glucose tolerance. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We measured 1,5-AG in 6783 (2842 men, 3941 women) individuals with normal fasting and 2-hour plasma glucose who received a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test between 1994 and 2012. They were followed for mortality until August 2013. A systematic review of death certificates was used to confirm the cause of death. We divided the participants into four groups according to the quartile of 1,5-AG level at registration. We used Cox regression to clarify the association between 1,5-AG levels and cancer mortality with multivariate adjustment for possible confounders. RESULTS: During the follow-up period (median, 10.0 years), 140 men and 109 women died of cancer. The HR for cancer mortality of the lowest quartile group was higher than that of the highest quartile group in men (HR, 2.62; 95% CI, 1.60 to 4.41) and in women (HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 0.88 to 2.47). These associations were not attenuated with further adjustment for HbA1c. CONCLUSIONS: 1,5-AG was associated with high risk of cancer mortality in Japanese men after adjustment for HbA1c.