Strategies to investigate and mitigate collider bias in genetic and Mendelian randomisation studies of disease progression.

Genetic studies of disease progression can be used to identify factors that may influence survival or prognosis, which may differ from factors that influence on disease susceptibility. Studies of disease progression feed directly into therapeutics for disease, whereas studies of incidence inform prevention strategies. However, studies of disease progression are known to be affected by collider (also known as "index event") bias since the disease progression phenotype can only be observed for individuals who have the disease. This applies equally to observational and genetic studies, including genome-wide association studies and Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses. In this paper, our aim is to review several statistical methods that can be used to detect and adjust for index event bias in studies of disease progression, and how they apply to genetic and MR studies using both individual- and summary-level data. Methods to detect the presence of index event bias include the use of negative controls, a comparison of associations between risk factors for incidence in individuals with and without the disease, and an inspection of Miami plots. Methods to adjust for the bias include inverse probability weighting (with individual-level data), or Slope-Hunter and Dudbridge et al.'s index event bias adjustment (when only summary-level data are available). We also outline two approaches for sensitivity analysis. We then illustrate how three methods to minimise bias can be used in practice with two applied examples. Our first example investigates the effects of blood lipid traits on mortality from coronary heart disease, while our second example investigates genetic associations with breast cancer mortality.

A genome-wide association study of neutrophil count in individuals associated to an African continental ancestry group facilitates studies of malaria pathogenesis.

BACKGROUND: 'Benign ethnic neutropenia' (BEN) is a heritable condition characterized by lower neutrophil counts, predominantly observed in individuals of African ancestry, and the genetic basis of BEN remains a subject of extensive research. In this study, we aimed to dissect the genetic architecture underlying neutrophil count variation through a linear-mixed model genome-wide association study (GWAS) in a population of African ancestry (N = 5976). Malaria caused by P. falciparum imposes a tremendous public health burden on people living in sub-Saharan Africa. Individuals living in malaria endemic regions often have a reduced circulating neutrophil count due to BEN, raising the possibility that reduced neutrophil counts modulate severity of malaria in susceptible populations. As a follow-up, we tested this hypothesis by conducting a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis of neutrophil counts on severe malaria (MalariaGEN, N = 17,056). RESULTS: We carried out a GWAS of neutrophil count in individuals associated to an African continental ancestry group within UK Biobank, identifying 73 loci (r2 = 0.1) and 10 index SNPs (GCTA-COJO loci) associated with neutrophil count, including previously unknown rare loci regulating neutrophil count in a non-European population. BOLT-LMM was reliable when conducted in a non-European population, and additional covariates added to the model did not largely alter the results of the top loci or index SNPs. The two-sample bi-directional MR analysis between neutrophil count and severe malaria showed the greatest evidence for an effect between neutrophil count and severe anaemia, although the confidence intervals crossed the null. CONCLUSION: Our GWAS of neutrophil count revealed unique loci present in individuals of African ancestry. We note that a small sample-size reduced our power to identify variants with low allele frequencies and/or low effect sizes in our GWAS. Our work highlights the need for conducting large-scale biobank studies in Africa and for further exploring the link between neutrophils and severe malaria.

Integrative multiomics analysis highlights immune-cell regulatory mechanisms and shared genetic architecture for 14 immune-associated diseases and cancer outcomes.

Developing functional insight into the causal molecular drivers of immunological disease is a critical challenge in genomic medicine. Here, we systematically apply Mendelian randomization (MR), genetic colocalization, immune-cell-type enrichment, and phenome-wide association methods to investigate the effects of genetically predicted gene expression on ten immune-associated diseases and four cancer outcomes. Using whole blood-derived estimates for regulatory variants from the eQTLGen consortium (n = 31,684), we constructed genetic risk scores for 10,104 genes. Applying the inverse-variance-weighted MR method transcriptome wide while accounting for linkage disequilibrium structure identified 664 unique genes with evidence of a genetically predicted effect on at least one disease outcome (p < 4.81 × 10-5). We next undertook genetic colocalization to investigate cell-type-specific effects at these loci by using gene expression data derived from 18 types of immune cells. This highlighted many cell-type-dependent effects, such as PRKCQ expression and asthma risk (posterior probability = 0.998), which was T cell specific. Phenome-wide analyses on 311 complex traits and endpoints allowed us to explore shared genetic architecture and prioritize key drivers of disease risk, such as CASP10, which provided evidence of an effect on seven cancer-related outcomes. Our atlas of results can be used to characterize known and novel loci in immune-associated disease and cancer susceptibility, both in terms of elucidating cell-type-dependent effects as well as dissecting shared disease pathways and pervasive pleiotropy. As an exemplar, we have highlighted several key findings in this study, although similar evaluations can be conducted via our interactive web platform.

Peripheral blood cellular immunophenotype in depression: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Meta-analyses implicate immune dysfunction in depression confirming increased levels of circulating immune proteins (e.g., cytokines) in depression cases compared to controls. White blood cells (WBC) both produce and are influenced by cytokines, and play key roles in orchestrating innate and adaptive immune responses, but their role in depression remains unclear. Therefore, a systematic review of studies of various WBC subsets in depression is required for a greater understanding of the nature of immune dysfunction in this illness. METHODS: We searched PubMed and PsycINFO databases (inception to 5th April 2022) and conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of identified studies comparing absolute count and/or relative percentage of flow cytometry-derived WBC subsets between depression cases and controls. Selected studies were quality assessed. Random-effect meta-analysis was performed. RESULTS: Thirty-three studies were included and 27 studies (n = 2277) were meta-analysed. We report an increase in mean absolute counts of WBC (seven studies; standardised mean difference [SMD] = 1.07; 95% CI, 0.61-1.53; P < 0.01; I2 = 64%), granulocytes (two studies; SMD = 2.07; 95% CI, 1.45-2.68; P < 0.01; I2 = 0%), neutrophils (four studies; SMD = 0.91; 95% CI, 0.23-1.58; P < 0.01; I2 = 82%), monocytes (seven studies; SMD = 0.60; 95% CI, 0.19-1.01; P < 0.01; I2 = 66%), CD4+ helper T cells (11 studies; SMD = 0.30; 95% CI, 0.15-0.45; P < 0.01; I2 = 0%), natural killer cells (11 studies; SMD = 1.23; 95% CI, 0.38-2.08; P < 0.01; I2 = 95%), B cells (10 studies; SMD = 0.30; 95% CI, 0.03-0.57; P = 0.03; I2 = 56%), and activated T cells (eight studies; SMD = 0.45; 95% CI, 0.24-0.66; P < 0.01; I2 = 0%) in depression, compared to controls. Fewer studies reported relative percentage, indicating increased neutrophils and decreased total lymphocytes, Th1, and Th2 cells in depression. CONCLUSIONS: Depression is characterised by widespread alterations in circulating myeloid and lymphoid cells, consistent with dysfunction in both innate and adaptive immunity. Immune cells could be useful biomarkers for illness subtyping and patient stratification in future immunotherapy trials of depression, along with cytokines, other biomarkers, and clinical measures.

A framework for research into continental ancestry groups of the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: The UK Biobank is a large prospective cohort, based in the UK, that has deep phenotypic and genomic data on roughly a half a million individuals. Included in this resource are data on approximately 78,000 individuals with "non-white British ancestry." While most epidemiology studies have focused predominantly on populations of European ancestry, there is an opportunity to contribute to the study of health and disease for a broader segment of the population by making use of the UK Biobank's "non-white British ancestry" samples. Here, we present an empirical description of the continental ancestry and population structure among the individuals in this UK Biobank subset. RESULTS: Reference populations from the 1000 Genomes Project for Africa, Europe, East Asia, and South Asia were used to estimate ancestry for each individual. Those with at least 80% ancestry in one of these four continental ancestry groups were taken forward (N = 62,484). Principal component and K-means clustering analyses were used to identify and characterize population structure within each ancestry group. Of the approximately 78,000 individuals in the UK Biobank that are of "non-white British" ancestry, 50,685, 6653, 2782, and 2364 individuals were associated to the European, African, South Asian, and East Asian continental ancestry groups, respectively. Each continental ancestry group exhibits prominent population structure that is consistent with self-reported country of birth data and geography. CONCLUSIONS: Methods outlined here provide an avenue to leverage UK Biobank's deeply phenotyped data allowing researchers to maximize its potential in the study of health and disease in individuals of non-white British ancestry.

Little evidence for an effect of smoking on multiple sclerosis risk: A Mendelian Randomization study.

The causes of multiple sclerosis (MS) remain unknown. Smoking has been associated with MS in observational studies and is often thought of as an environmental risk factor. We used two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) to examine whether this association is causal using genetic variants identified in genome-wide association studies (GWASs) as associated with smoking. We assessed both smoking initiation and lifetime smoking behaviour (which captures smoking duration, heaviness, and cessation). There was very limited evidence for a meaningful effect of smoking on MS susceptibility as measured using summary statistics from the International Multiple Sclerosis Genetics Consortium (IMSGC) meta-analysis, including 14,802 cases and 26,703 controls. There was no clear evidence for an effect of smoking on the risk of developing MS (smoking initiation: odds ratio [OR] 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.92-1.61; lifetime smoking: OR 1.10, 95% CI 0.87-1.40). These findings suggest that smoking does not have a detrimental consequence on MS susceptibility. Further work is needed to determine the causal effect of smoking on MS progression.

Correction: Vitamin D levels and risk of type 1 diabetes: A Mendelian randomization study.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003536.].

Vitamin D levels and risk of type 1 diabetes: A Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with type 1 diabetes in observational studies, but evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) is lacking. The aim of this study was to test whether genetically decreased vitamin D levels are causally associated with type 1 diabetes using Mendelian randomization (MR). METHODS AND FINDINGS: For our two-sample MR study, we selected as instruments single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are strongly associated with 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) levels in a large vitamin D genome-wide association study (GWAS) on 443,734 Europeans and obtained their corresponding effect estimates on type 1 diabetes risk from a large meta-analysis of 12 type 1 diabetes GWAS studies (Ntot = 24,063, 9,358 cases, and 15,705 controls). In addition to the main analysis using inverse variance weighted MR, we applied 3 additional methods to control for pleiotropy (MR-Egger, weighted median, and mode-based estimate) and compared the respective MR estimates. We also undertook sensitivity analyses excluding SNPs with potential pleiotropic effects. We identified 69 lead independent common SNPs to be genome-wide significant for 25OHD, explaining 3.1% of the variance in 25OHD levels. MR analyses suggested that a 1 standard deviation (SD) decrease in standardized natural log-transformed 25OHD (corresponding to a 29-nmol/l change in 25OHD levels in vitamin D-insufficient individuals) was not associated with an increase in type 1 diabetes risk (inverse-variance weighted (IVW) MR odds ratio (OR) = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.86 to 1.40, p = 0.48). We obtained similar results using the 3 pleiotropy robust MR methods and in sensitivity analyses excluding SNPs associated with serum lipid levels, body composition, blood traits, and type 2 diabetes. Our findings indicate that decreased vitamin D levels did not have a substantial impact on risk of type 1 diabetes in the populations studied. Study limitations include an inability to exclude the existence of smaller associations and a lack of evidence from non-European populations. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that 25OHD levels are unlikely to have a large effect on risk of type 1 diabetes, but larger MR studies or RCTs are needed to investigate small effects.

Childhood obesity and multiple sclerosis: A Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Higher childhood body mass index (BMI) has been associated with an increased risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether childhood BMI has a causal influence on MS, and whether this putative effect is independent from early adult obesity and pubertal timing. METHODS: We performed Mendelian randomization (MR) using summary genetic data on 14,802 MS cases and 26,703 controls. Large-scale genome-wide association studies provided estimates for BMI in childhood (n = 47,541) and adulthood (n = 322,154). In multivariable MR, we examined the direct effects of each timepoint and further adjusted for age at puberty. Findings were replicated using the UK Biobank (n = 453,169). RESULTS: Higher genetically predicted childhood BMI was associated with increased odds of MS (odds ratio (OR) = 1.26/SD BMI increase, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07-1.50). However, there was little evidence of a direct effect after adjusting for adult BMI (OR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.70-1.53). Conversely, the effect of adult BMI persisted independent of childhood BMI (OR = 1.43; 95% CI: 1.01-2.03). The addition of age at puberty did not alter the findings. UK Biobank analyses showed consistent results. Sensitivity analyses provided no evidence of pleiotropy. CONCLUSION: Genetic evidence supports an association between childhood obesity and MS susceptibility, mediated by persistence of obesity into early adulthood but independent of pubertal timing.

The relative contributions of obesity, vitamin D, leptin, and adiponectin to multiple sclerosis risk: A Mendelian randomization mediation analysis.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is associated with increased risk of multiple sclerosis (MS); however, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: To determine the extent to which decreased vitamin D bioavailability and altered levels of adiponectin and leptin mediate the association between obesity and MS. METHODS: We performed Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to estimate the effects on MS of body mass index (BMI), 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD), adiponectin, and leptin levels in a cohort of 14,802 MS cases and 26,703 controls. We then estimated the proportion of the effect of obesity on MS explained by these potential mediators. RESULTS: Genetic predisposition to higher BMI was associated with increased MS risk (odds ratio (OR) = 1.33 per standard deviation (SD), 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.09-1.63), while higher 25OHD levels reduced odds of MS (OR = 0.72 per SD, 95% CI = 0.60-0.87). In contrast, we observed no effect of adiponectin or leptin. In MR mediation analysis, 5.2% of the association between BMI and MS was attributed to obesity lowering 25OHD levels (95% CI = 0.3%-31.0%). CONCLUSIONS: This study found that a minority of the increased risk of MS conferred by obesity is mediated by lowered vitamin D levels, while leptin and adiponectin had no effect. Consequently, vitamin D supplementation would only modestly reverse the effect of obesity on MS.

Expression of glycosaminoglycan epitopes during zebrafish skeletogenesis.

BACKGROUND: The zebrafish is an important developmental model. Surprisingly, there are few studies that describe the glycosaminoglycan composition of its extracellular matrix during skeletogenesis. Glycosaminoglycans on proteoglycans contribute to the material properties of musculo skeletal connective tissues, and are important in regulating signalling events during morphogenesis. Sulfation motifs within the chain structure of glycosaminoglycans on cell-associated and extracellular matrix proteoglycans allow them to bind and regulate the sequestration/presentation of bioactive signalling molecules important in musculo-skeletal development. RESULTS: We describe the spatio-temporal expression of different glycosaminoglycan moieties during zebrafish skeletogenesis with antibodies recognising (1) native sulfation motifs within chondroitin and keratan sulfate chains, and (2) enzyme-generated neoepitope sequences within the chain structure of chondroitin sulfate (i.e., 0-, 4-, and 6-sulfated isoforms) and heparan sulfate glycosaminoglycans. We show that all the glycosaminoglycan moieties investigated are expressed within the developing skeletal tissues of larval zebrafish. However, subtle changes in their patterns of spatio-temporal expression over the period examined suggest that their expression is tightly and dynamically controlled during development. CONCLUSIONS: The subtle differences observed in the domains of expression between different glycosaminoglycan moieties suggest differences in their functional roles during establishment of the primitive analogues of the skeleton.

Vitamin D Levels and Risk of Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

OBJECTIVES: Observational studies report mixed findings regarding the association between vitamin D and juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) incidence or activity; however, such studies are susceptible to considerable bias. Because low vitamin D levels are common within the general population and easily corrected, there is potential public health benefit in identifying a causal association between vitamin D insufficiency and JIA incidence. To limit bias due to confounding and reverse causation, we examined the causal effect of the major circulating form of vitamin D, 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25-[OH]D), on JIA incidence using Mendelian randomization (MR). METHODS: In this 2-sample MR analysis, we used summary level data from the largest and most recent genome-wide association study of 25-(OH)D levels (sample size 443,734), alongside summary data from 2 JIA genetic studies (sample sizes 15,872 and 12,501), all from European populations. To test and account for potential bias due to pleiotropy, we employed multiple MR methods and sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: We found no evidence of a causal relationship between genetically predicted 25-(OH)D levels and JIA incidence (odds ratio 1.00 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.76, 1.33] per SD increase in standardized natural-log transformed 25-[OH]D levels). This estimate was consistent across all methods tested. Additionally, there was no evidence that genetically predicted JIA causally influences 25-(OH)D levels (-0.002 SD change in standardized natural-log transformed 25-[OH]D levels per doubling odds in genetically predicted JIA [95% CI -0.006, 0.002]). CONCLUSION: Given the lack of a causal relationship between 25-(OH)D levels and JIA, population level vitamin D supplementation is unlikely to reduce JIA incidence.

The effect of interleukin-6 signaling on severe malaria: A Mendelian randomization analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Severe malaria remains a deadly disease for many young children in low- and middle-income countries. Levels of interleukin (IL)-6 have been shown to identify cases of severe malaria and associate with severity, but it is unknown if this association is causal. METHODS: A single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP; rs2228145) in the IL-6 receptor was chosen as a genetic variant that is known to alter IL-6 signaling. We tested this, then took this forward as an instrument to perform Mendelian randomization (MR) in MalariaGEN, a large cohort study of patients with severe malaria at 11 worldwide sites. RESULTS: In MR analyses using rs2228145, we did not identify an effect of decreased IL-6 signaling on severe malaria (odds ratio 1.14, 95% confidence interval 0.56-2.34, P = 0.713). The estimates of the association with any severe malaria subphenotype were similarly null, although with some imprecision. Further analyses using other MR approaches had similar results. CONCLUSION: These analyses do not support a causal role for IL-6 signaling in the development of severe malaria. This result suggests IL-6 may not be causal for severe outcomes in malaria, and that therapeutic manipulation of IL-6 is unlikely to be a suitable treatment for severe malaria.

Antibody levels following vaccination against SARS-CoV-2: associations with post-vaccination infection and risk factors in two UK longitudinal studies.

Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody levels can be used to assess humoral immune responses following SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination, and may predict risk of future infection. Higher levels of SARS-CoV-2 anti-Spike antibodies are known to be associated with increased protection against future SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, variation in antibody levels and risk factors for lower antibody levels following each round of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination have not been explored across a wide range of socio-demographic, SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination, and health factors within population-based cohorts. Methods: Samples were collected from 9361 individuals from TwinsUK and ALSPAC UK population-based longitudinal studies and tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Cross-sectional sampling was undertaken jointly in April-May 2021 (TwinsUK, N=4256; ALSPAC, N=4622), and in TwinsUK only in November 2021-January 2022 (N=3575). Variation in antibody levels after first, second, and third SARS-CoV-2 vaccination with health, socio-demographic, SARS-CoV-2 infection, and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination variables were analysed. Using multivariable logistic regression models, we tested associations between antibody levels following vaccination and: (1) SARS-CoV-2 infection following vaccination(s); (2) health, socio-demographic, SARS-CoV-2 infection, and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination variables. Results: Within TwinsUK, single-vaccinated individuals with the lowest 20% of anti-Spike antibody levels at initial testing had threefold greater odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection over the next 6-9 months (OR = 2.9, 95% CI: 1.4, 6.0), compared to the top 20%. In TwinsUK and ALSPAC, individuals identified as at increased risk of COVID-19 complication through the UK 'Shielded Patient List' had consistently greater odds (two- to fourfold) of having antibody levels in the lowest 10%. Third vaccination increased absolute antibody levels for almost all individuals, and reduced relative disparities compared with earlier vaccinations. Conclusions: These findings quantify the association between antibody level and risk of subsequent infection, and support a policy of triple vaccination for the generation of protective antibodies. Funding: Antibody testing was funded by UK Health Security Agency. The National Core Studies program is funded by COVID-19 Longitudinal Health and Wellbeing - National Core Study (LHW-NCS) HMT/UKRI/MRC ([MC_PC_20030] and [MC_PC_20059]). Related funding was also provided by the NIHR 606 (CONVALESCENCE grant [COV-LT-0009]). TwinsUK is funded by the Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, Versus Arthritis, European Union Horizon 2020, Chronic Disease Research Foundation (CDRF), Zoe Ltd and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinical Research Network (CRN) and Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust in partnership with King's College London. The UK Medical Research Council and Wellcome (Grant ref: [217065/Z/19/Z]) and the University of Bristol provide core support for ALSPAC.

Vaccination against the virus that causes COVID-19 triggers the body to produce antibodies that help fight future infections. But some people generate more antibodies after vaccination than others. People with lower levels of antibodies are more likely to get COVID-19 in the future. Identifying people with low antibody levels after COVID-19 vaccination is important. It could help decide who receives priority for future vaccination. Previous studies show that people with certain health conditions produce fewer antibodies after one or two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. For example, people with weakened immune systems. Now that third booster doses are available, it is vital to determine if they increase antibody levels for those most at risk of severe COVID-19. Cheetham et al. show that a third booster dose of a COVID-19 vaccine boosts antibodies to high levels in 90% of individuals, including those at increased risk. In the experiments, Cheetham et al. measured antibodies against the virus that causes COVID-19 in 9,361 individuals participating in two large long-term health studies in the United Kingdom. The experiments found that UK individuals advised to shield from the virus because they were at increased risk of complications had lower levels of antibodies after one or two vaccine doses than individuals without such risk factors. This difference was also seen after a third booster dose, but overall antibody levels had large increases. People who received the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine as their first dose also had lower antibody levels after one or two doses than those who received the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine first. Positively, this difference in antibody levels was no longer seen after a third booster dose. Individuals with lower antibody levels after their first dose were also more likely to have a case of COVID-19 in the following months. Antibody levels were high in most individuals after the third dose. The results may help governments and public health officials identify individuals who may need extra protection after the first two vaccine doses. They also support current policies promoting booster doses of the vaccine and may support prioritizing booster doses for those at the highest risk from COVID-19 in future vaccination campaigns.

HMOX1 genetic polymorphisms and outcomes in infectious disease: A systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Heme-oxygenase 1 (HMOX1) is a critical stress response gene that catalyzes the multistep oxidation of heme. A GT(n) repeat of variable length in the promoter in has been associated with a wide range of human diseases, including infections. This paper aims to summarise and systematically review associations between the length of the HMOX1 GT(n) promoter and infectious disease in humans. METHODS: A search using relevant terms was performed in PubMED and EMBASE through to 15/01/21 identifying all research that studied an association between the HMOX1 GT(n) repeat polymorphism and the incidence and/or outcome of any human infectious disease. Citations were screened for additional studies. Potential studies were screened for inclusion by two authors. Data was extracted on allele frequency, genotype, strength of association, mechanism of genotyping, and potential biases. A narrative review was performed across each type of infection. RESULTS: 1,533 studies were identified in the search, and one via citation screening. Sixteen studies were ultimately included, seven in malaria, three in HIV, three in sepsis, and one each in pneumonia, hepatitis C, and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Sample sizes for nearly all studies were small (biggest study, n = 1,646). Allelic definition was different across all included studies. All studies were at some risk of bias. In malaria, three studies suggested that longer alleles were associated with reduced risk of severe malaria, particularly malaria-induced renal dysfunction, with four studies identifying a null association. In sepsis, two studies suggested an association with longer alleles and better outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the importance of HMOX1 in survival from infection, and the association between repeat length and gene expression, the clinical data supporting an association between repeat length and incidence and/or outcome of infection remain inconclusive.

Long COVID burden and risk factors in 10 UK longitudinal studies and electronic health records.

The frequency of, and risk factors for, long COVID are unclear among community-based individuals with a history of COVID-19. To elucidate the burden and possible causes of long COVID in the community, we coordinated analyses of survey data from 6907 individuals with self-reported COVID-19 from 10 UK longitudinal study (LS) samples and 1.1 million individuals with COVID-19 diagnostic codes in electronic healthcare records (EHR) collected by spring 2021. Proportions of presumed COVID-19 cases in LS reporting any symptoms for 12+ weeks ranged from 7.8% and 17% (with 1.2 to 4.8% reporting debilitating symptoms). Increasing age, female sex, white ethnicity, poor pre-pandemic general and mental health, overweight/obesity, and asthma were associated with prolonged symptoms in both LS and EHR data, but findings for other factors, such as cardio-metabolic parameters, were inconclusive.

Evaluating the effects of cardiometabolic exposures on circulating proteins which may contribute to severe SARS-CoV-2.

BACKGROUND: Developing insight into the pathogenesis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is of critical importance to overcome the global pandemic caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19). In this study, we have applied Mendelian randomization (MR) to systematically evaluate the effect of 10 cardiometabolic risk factors and genetic liability to lifetime smoking on 97 circulating host proteins postulated to either interact or contribute to the maladaptive host response of SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: We applied the inverse variance weighted (IVW) approach and several robust MR methods in a two-sample setting to systemically estimate the genetically predicted effect of each risk factor in turn on levels of each circulating protein. Multivariable MR was conducted to simultaneously evaluate the effects of multiple risk factors on the same protein. We also applied MR using cis-regulatory variants at the genomic location responsible for encoding these proteins to estimate whether their circulating levels may influence severe SARS-CoV-2. FINDINGS: In total, we identified evidence supporting 105 effects between risk factors and circulating proteins which were robust to multiple testing corrections and sensitivity analyzes. For example, body mass index provided evidence of an effect on 23 circulating proteins with a variety of functions, such as inflammatory markers c-reactive protein (IVW Beta=0.34 per standard deviation change, 95% CI=0.26 to 0.41, P = 2.19 × 10-16) and interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IVW Beta=0.23, 95% CI=0.17 to 0.30, P = 9.04 × 10-12). Further analyzes using multivariable MR provided evidence that the effect of BMI on lowering immunoglobulin G, an antibody class involved in protection from infection, is substantially mediated by raised triglycerides levels (IVW Beta=-0.18, 95% CI=-0.25 to -0.12, P = 2.32 × 10-08, proportion mediated=44.1%). The strongest evidence that any of the circulating proteins highlighted by our initial analysis influence severe SARS-CoV-2 was identified for soluble glycoprotein 130 (odds ratio=1.81, 95% CI=1.25 to 2.62, P = 0.002), a signal transductor for interleukin-6 type cytokines which are involved in inflammatory response. However, based on current case samples for severe SARS-CoV-2 we were unable to replicate findings in independent samples. INTERPRETATION: Our findings highlight several key proteins which are influenced by established exposures for disease. Future research to determine whether these circulating proteins mediate environmental effects onto risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection or covid-19 progression are warranted to help elucidate therapeutic strategies for severe covid-19 disease. FUNDING: The Medical Research Council, the Wellcome Trust, the British Heart Foundation and UK Research and Innovation.

Genetic Analyses of Common Infections in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children Cohort.

The burden of infections on an individual and public health is profound. Many observational studies have shown a link between infections and the pathogenesis of disease; however a greater understanding of the role of host genetics is essential. Children from the longitudinal birth cohort, the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, had 14 antibodies measured in plasma at age 7: Alpha-casein protein, beta-casein protein, cytomegalovirus, Epstein-Barr virus, feline herpes virus, Helicobacter pylori, herpes simplex virus 1, influenza virus subtype H1N1, influenza virus subtype H3N2, measles virus, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Theiler's virus, Toxoplasma gondii, and SAG1 protein domain, a surface antigen of Toxoplasma gondii measured for greater precision. We performed genome-wide association analyses of antibody levels against these 14 infections (N = 357 - 5010) and identified three genome-wide signals (P < 5×10-8), two associated with measles virus antibodies and one with Toxoplasma gondii antibodies. In an association analysis focused on the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region of the genome, we further detected 15 HLA alleles at a two-digit resolution and 23 HLA alleles at a four-digit resolution associated with five antibodies, with eight HLA alleles associated with Epstein-Barr virus antibodies showing strong evidence of replication in UK Biobank. We discuss how our findings from antibody levels complement other studies using self-reported phenotypes in understanding the architecture of host genetics related to infections.

Association of Genetic Risk for Rheumatoid Arthritis With Cognitive and Psychiatric Phenotypes Across Childhood and Adolescence.

Importance: The association of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with cognitive and psychiatric phenotypes has been recognized. However, it is not known whether these phenotypes are a consequence of disease-related factors, such as pain, or reflect shared etiological factors. Objective: To investigate whether genomic risk for RA is associated with cognitive and psychiatric symptoms in children and adolescents. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study analyzed data from 3296 to 5936 adolescents (depending on outcome) from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Clinical and questionnaire data were collected periodically from September 6, 1990, with collection ongoing, and analyzed from August 21, 2017, to May 21, 2018. Exposures: Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for RA. Main Outcomes and Measures: Measures of cognition (including IQ, working memory, verbal learning, processing speed, problem solving, selective attention, and attentional control) and psychopathology (including anxiety, depression, negative symptoms, psychotic experiences, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, and hyperactive and inattentive symptoms) in childhood and adolescence. Results: Polygenic risk scores for RA were generated for 7977 children and adolescents (3885 [48.7%] female). Of these 7977 participants, 9 (0.11%) had a known diagnosis of RA at age 22 years. Increased PRS for RA was associated with lower total IQ (ß, -0.05; 95% CI, -0.07 to -0.02; P < .001), performance IQ (ß, -0.03; 95% CI, -0.06 to -0.005; P = .02), and verbal IQ (ß, -0.05; 95% CI, -0.08 to -0.02; P < .001) at age 8 years (mean [SD] age at measurement, 8.6 [0.3] years) and symptoms of hyperactivity and inattention from ages 4 to 16 years, with the strongest evidence of association at age 13 years (mean [SD] age at assessment, 13.2 [0.2] years). The odds ratio at this age per SD increase in PRS was 1.25 (95% CI, 1.12-1.39) (P < .001). There was little evidence of association between the RA PRS and other measures of cognition and psychopathology. Gene-based analyses indicated that polygenic signal for RA was enriched for immune pathways (q ≤ 0.05). No equivalent associations were seen for polygenic risk associated with inflammatory bowel disease or multiple sclerosis. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings support an association between genetic risk for RA and neural phenotypes, suggesting that cognitive impairment in RA is not simply secondary to disease-related processes or treatment effects. These results may suggest that genetic susceptibility for RA might affect psychological well-being in early life and reinforce the emerging link between mental health and the immune system.

Longitudinal serological measures of common infection in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children cohort.

Antibodies against pathogens provide information on exposure to infectious agents and are meaningful measures of past and present infection. Antibodies were measured in the plasma of children that are the offspring in a population-based birth cohort, the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Plasma was collected during clinics at age 5, 7, 11 and 15 years. The antigens examined include: fungal ( Saccharomyces cerevisiae); protozoan ( Toxoplasma gondii and surface antigen 1 of  T. gondii); herpes viruses (cytomegalovirus, Epstein-Barr virus, herpes simplex virus type 1); common colds (influenza virus subtypes H1N1 and H3N2); other antigens (measles); animal (feline herpes virus, Theiler's virus); bacteria ( Helicobacter pylori); dietary antigens (bovine casein alpha protein, bovine casein beta protein). Alongside the depth of data available within the ALSPAC cohort, this longitudinal resource will enable the investigation of the association between infections and a wide variety of outcomes.