Burden and quality of care index of chronic kidney disease: Global Burden of Disease analysis for 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) imposes a heavy obscure burden on individuals and health systems. Besides its burden, the quality of care of CKD is less well investigated. In this study, we aimed to explore the global, regional and national trends of CKD burden and quality of care. METHODS: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 data were used. Trends of incidence, prevalence, deaths and disability-adjusted life years were studied for the 1990-2019 period in the global aspect. By generating four secondary indices to assess different aspects of quality of care the quality of care index (QCI) was developed to explore the care provided for CKD. Inequities and disparities between various geographic, socio-demographic and age stratifications, and sex were studied using the QCI values. RESULTS: In 2019, there were 18 986 903 (95% uncertainty interval 17 556 535 to 20 518 156) incident cases of CKD, globally. The overall global QCI score had increased slightly from 78.4 in 1990 to 81.6 in 2019, and it was marginally better in males (QCI score 83.5) than in females (80.3). The highest QCI score was observed in the European region with a score of 92.5, while the African region displayed the lowest QCI with 61.7. Among the age groups, the highest QCI was for children aged between 5 and 9 years old (92.0), and the lowest was in the age group of 20-24 year olds (65.5). CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed that significant disparities remain regarding the quality of care of CKD, and to reach better care for CKD, attention to and care of minorities should be reconsidered. The evidence presented in this study would benefit health policymakers toward better and more efficient control of CKD burden alongside improving the care of this condition.

Burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its risk factors in North Africa and the Middle East, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) in the North Africa and Middle East region is alarmingly high, prompting us to investigate the burden and factors contributing to it through the GBD study. Additionally, there is a lack of knowledge about the epidemiological status of T2DM in this region, so our aim is to provide a comprehensive overview of the burden of T2DM and its associated risk factors. METHODS: Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study, we calculated the attributable burden of T2DM for each of the 21 countries in the region for the years 1990 and 2019. This included prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, there was a significant increase in the age-standardized incidence (79.6%; 95% Uncertainty Interval: 75.0 to 84.5) and prevalence (85.5%; [80.8 to 90.3]) rates of T2DM per 100,000 populations. The age-standardized mortality rate (1.7%; [-10.4 to 14.9]), DALYs (31.2%; [18.3 to 42.2]), and years lived with disability (YLDs) (82.6%; [77.2 to 88.1]) also increased during this period. Modifiable risk factors, such as high body mass index (56.4%; [42.8 to 69.8]), low physical activity (15.5%; [9.0 to 22.8]), and ambient particulate matter pollution (20.9%; [15.2 to 26.2]), were the main contributors to the number of deaths. CONCLUSION: The burden of T2DM, in terms of mortality, DALYs, and YLDs, continues to rise in the region. The incidence rate of T2DM has increased in many areas. The burden of T2DM attributed to modifiable risk factors continues to grow in most countries. Targeting these modifiable risk factors could effectively reduce the growth and disease burden of T2DM in the region.

The global, regional, and national burden and quality of care index of kidney cancer; a global burden of disease systematic analysis 1990-2019.

Kidney cancer (KC) is a prevalent cancer worldwide. The incidence and mortality rates of KC have risen in recent decades. The quality of care provided to KC patients is a concern for public health. Considering the importance of KC, in this study, we aim to assess the burden of the disease, gender and age disparities globally, regionally, and nationally to evaluate the quality and inequities of KC care. The 2019 Global Burden of Disease study provides data on the burden of the KC. The secondary indices, including mortality-to-incidence ratio, disability-adjusted life years -to-prevalence ratio, prevalence-to-incidence ratio, and years of life lost-to-years lived with disability ratio, were utilized. These four newly merged indices were converted to the quality-of-care index (QCI) as a summary measure using principal component analysis. QCI ranged between 0 and 100, and higher amounts of QCI indicate higher quality of care. Gender disparity ratio was calculated by dividing QCI for females by males to show gender inequity. The global age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of KC increased by 29.1% (95% uncertainty interval 18.7-40.7) and 11.6% (4.6-20.0) between 1990 and 2019, respectively. Globally, the QCI score for KC increased by 14.6% during 30 years, from 71.3 to 81.6. From 1990 to 2019, the QCI score has increased in all socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles. By 2019, the highest QCI score was in regions with a high SDI (93.0), and the lowest was in low SDI quintiles (38.2). Based on the World Health Organization regions, the QCI score was highest in the region of America, with Canada having the highest score (99.6) and the lowest in the African Region, where the Central African Republic scored the lowest (17.2). In 1990, the gender disparity ratio was 0.98, and in 2019, it was 0.97 showing an almost similar QCI score for females and males. Although the quality of care for KC has improved from 1990 to 2019, there is a significant gap between nations and different socioeconomic levels. This study provides clinicians and health authorities with a global perspective on the quality of care for KC and identifies the existing disparities.

National and subnational burden of female and male breast cancer and risk factors in Iran from 1990 to 2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC) is one of the most burdensome cancers worldwide. Despite advancements in diagnostic and treatment modalities, developing countries are still dealing with increasing burdens and existing disparities. This study provides estimates of BC burden and associated risk factors in Iran at the national and subnational levels over 30 years (1990-2019). METHODS: Data on BC burden for Iran were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study from 1990 to 2019. GBD estimation methods were applied to explore BC incidence, prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and attributable burden to risk factors based on the GBD risk factors hierarchy. Moreover, decomposition analysis was performed to find the contribution of population growth, aging, and cause-specific incidence in the total incidence change. Age-standardized rates (per 100,000 population) and 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) were reported based on sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI). RESULTS: Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased from 18.8 (95% UI 15.3-24.1)/100,000 in 2019 to 34.0 (30.7-37.9)/100,000 in 2019 among females and from 0.2/100,000 (0.2-0.3) to 0.3/100,000 (0.3-0.4) among males. Age-standardized deaths rate (ASDR) increased slightly among females from 10.3 (8.2-13.6)/100,000 in 1990 to 11.9 (10.8-13.1)/100,000 in 2019 and remained almost the same among males-0.2/100,000 (0.1-0.2). Age-standardized DALYs rate also increased from 320.2 (265.4-405.4) to 368.7 (336.7-404.3) among females but decreased slightly in males from 4.5 (3.5-5.8) to 4.0 (3.5-4.5). Of the 417.6% increase in total incident cases from 1990-2019, 240.7% was related to cause-specific incidence. In both genders, the BC burden increased by age, including age groups under 50 before routine screening programs, and by SDI levels; the high and high-middle SDI regions had the highest BC burden in Iran. Based on the GBD risk factors hierarchy, high fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and alcohol were estimated to have the most and the least attributed DALYs for BC among females, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: BC burden increased from 1990 to 2019 in both genders, and considerable discrepancies were found among different provinces and SDI quintiles in Iran. These increasing trends appeared to be associated with social and economic developments and changes in demographic factors. Improvements in registry systems and diagnostic capacities were also probably responsible for these growing trends. Raising general awareness and improving screening programs, early detection measures, and equitable access to healthcare systems might be the initial steps to tackle the increasing trends.

Low bone mineral density, a neglected condition in North Africa and Middle East: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study, 1990-2019.

Due to the high prevalence of low bone mineral density in North Africa and Middle East region, estimating its attributable burden would help to a better understanding of this neglected condition for policymakers and health researchers. This study presented the number of attributable deaths has doubled from 1990 to 2019. PURPOSE: This study provides the latest estimates of the burden of low bone mineral density (BMD) from 1990 to 2019 in North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region. METHODS: The data were extracted from the global burden of disease (GBD) 2019 study to estimate epidemiological indices such as deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and summary exposure value (SEV). SEV is a measure of the exposure of the population to a risk factor that considers the amount of exposure by the level of risk. RESULTS: Our findings showed that in 1990-2019, the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to low BMD had almost doubled in the region and caused 20,371 (95% uncertainty intervals: 14,848-24,374) deaths and 805,959 (630,238-959,581) DALYs in 2019. However, DALYs and death rates showed a decreasing trend after age standardization. Saudi Arabia had the highest, and Lebanon had the lowest age-standardized DALYs rates in 2019, with rates of 434.2 (329.6-534.3) and 90.3 (70.6-112.1) per 100,000, respectively. The highest burden attributable to low BMD was in the 90-94 and over 95 age groups. Also, there was a decreasing trend in age-standardized SEV to low BMD for both sexes. CONCLUSION: Despite the decreasing trend of age-standardized burden indices, considerable amounts of deaths and DALYs were attributable to low BMD, especially in the elderly population, in the region in 2019. As the positive effects of proper interventions will be detectable in the long term, robust strategies and comprehensive stable policies are the ultimate solutions to achieving desired goals.

National, subnational and risk attributed burden of chronic respiratory diseases in Iran from 1990 to 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Data on the distribution of the burden of diseases is vital for policymakers for the appropriate allocation of resources. In this study, we report the geographical and time trends of chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) in Iran from 1990 to 2019 based on the Global burden of the Disease (GBD) study 2019. METHODS: Data were extracted from the GBD 2019 study to report the burden of CRDs through disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality, incidence, prevalence, Years of Life lost (YLL), and Years Lost to Disability (YLD). Moreover, we reported the burden attributed to the risk factors with evidence of causation at national and subnational levels. We also performed a decomposition analysis to determine the roots of incidence changes. All data were measured as counts and age-standardized rates (ASR) divided by sex and age group. RESULTS: In 2019, the ASR of deaths, incidence, prevalence, and DALYs attributed to CRDs in Iran were 26.9 (23.2 to 29.1), 932.1 (799.7 to 1091.5), 5155.4 (4567.2 to 5859.6) and 587,911 (521,418 to 661,392) respectively. All burden measures were higher in males than females, but in older age groups, CRDs were more incident in females than males. While all crude numbers increased, all ASRs except for YLDs decreased over the studied period. Population growth was the main contributor to the changes in incidence at a national and subnational levels. The ASR of mortality in the province (Kerman) with the highest death rate (58.54 (29.42 to 68.73) was four times more than the province (Tehran) with the lowest death rate (14.52 (11.94 to 17.64)). The risk factors which imposed the most DALYs were smoking (216 (189.9 to 240.8)), ambient particulate matter pollution (117.9 (88.1 to 149.4)), and high body mass index (BMI) (57 (36.3 to 81.8)). Smoking was also the main risk factor in all provinces. CONCLUSION: Despite the overall decrease in ASR of burden measures, the crude counts are rising. Moreover, the ASIR of all CRDs except asthma is increasing. This suggests that the overall incidence of CRDs will continue to grow in the future, which calls for immediate action to reduce exposure to the known risk factors. Therefore, expanded national plans by policymakers are essential to prevent the economic and human burden of CRDs.

A Global, Regional, and National Survey on Burden and Quality of Care Index of Multiple Sclerosis: Global Burden of Disease Systematic Analysis 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a common neurologic autoimmune disorder. We have used a newly introduced measure, Quality of Care Index (QCI), which is associated with the efficacy of care given to patients suffering from MS. OBJECTIVES: The aims of the study were to report and compare the quality of care given to MS patients in different regions and country. METHODS: Primary measures were retrieved from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) from 1990 to 2019. Secondary measures (mortality-to-incidence ratio, DALY-to-prevalence ratio, prevalence-to-incidence ratio, and YLL-to-YLD ratio) were combined using principal component analysis, to form an essential component (QCI) (0-100 index with higher values representing better condition). RESULTS: In 2019, there were 59,345 (95% UI: 51,818-66,943) new MS incident cases globally. Global QCI of 88.4 was calculated for 2019. At national level, Qatar had the highest quality of care (100) followed by Kuwait (98.5) and Greenland (98.1). The lowest QCI was observed in Kiribati (13.5), Nauru (31.5), and Seychelles (36.3), respectively. Most countries have reached gender equity during the 30 years. Also, QCI was lowest in ages from 55 to 80 in global scale. CONCLUSION: MS QCI is better among those countries of higher socioeconomic status, possibly due to better healthcare access and early detection in these regions. Countries could benefit from adopting the introduced QCI to evaluate the quality of care given to MS patients at national and global level.

Global, regional, and national burden and quality of care index of liver cirrhosis by cause from global burden of disease 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases are complex disorders with a known burden. Currently health systems have different approaches to dealing with this issue. The objective of this study is to describe the burden attributed to and quality of care for cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases. METHODS: Data of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases extracted from Global-Burden-of-Diseases 2019. Four indicators, including mortality to incidence ratio, prevalence to incidence ratio, disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) to prevalence ratio, and years-of-life-lost (YLLs) to years-lived-with-disability (YLDs) ratio, were defined and combined by the principal-components-analysis to construct the Quality-of-Care-Index (QCI). RESULTS: The global QCI of cirrhosis increased from 71.0 in 1990 to 79.3 in 2019. The QCI showed a favorable situation in higher SDI countries compared with lower SDI countries, with a QCI of 86.8 in high SDI countries and 60.1 in low SDI countries. The highest QCI was found in Western Pacific Region (90.2), and the lowest was for African Region (60.4). Highest QCI belonged to the 50-54 age group (99.5), and the lowest was for the 30.34 age group (70.9). Among underlying causes of cirrhosis, the highest QCI belonged to alcohol use, followed by hepatitis C and NAFLD with QCIs of 86.1, 85.3, and 81.1. CONCLUSIONS: There was a considerable variation in the QCI of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases. Countries with low QCI, mainly located in developing regions, need organized action to control the burden of cirrhosis and its underlying causes and improve their quality of care.

Sociodemographic differences in dietary trends among Iranian adults: findings from the 2005-2016 Iran-WHO STEPS survey.

OBJECTIVE: To examine trends in the intake of key food groups among Iranian adults between 2005 and 2016, overall, and according to sociodemographic characteristics. DESIGN: Repeat cross-sectional data from the Iran-STEPwise approach to risk factor surveillance (Iran-WHO STEPS) 2005-2016 were analysed. Regression analyses were used to evaluate trends in the frequency of fruits, vegetables and fish intake and type of oil used over time. Interactions by sex, age and area of residence were examined. SETTING: Iran. PARTICIPANTS: 225 221 Iranian adults. RESULTS: The frequency of vegetables (ß: -0·03; 95 % CI (-0·06, -0·00); P-trend = 0·030) and fish (ß: -0·09; 95 % CI (-0·10, -0·08); P-trend < 0·001) intake and use of solid fat (OR: 0·70; 95 % CI (0·70, 0·72); P-trend < 0·001) declined, whilst the frequency of fruit intake (ß-Coeff: 0·03, 95 % CI (0·01, 0·05); P-trend = 0·014) and liquid oil use (OR: 1·40; 95 % CI (1·3, 1·4); P-trend<0·001) rose. Rising trends in fruit intake were larger in mid-aged (40-60 years) and older (>60 years) adults (P-interaction < 0·001), whilst declines in vegetable (P-interaction < 0·001) and fish intake (P-interaction = 0·001) were larger in older adults. The declining use of solid fat was strongest in middle-aged and older adults (P-interaction = 0·035), while the increasing use of liquid oil was strongest in rural areas (P-interaction = 0·011). CONCLUSIONS: During the nutrition transition, liquid oil use and the frequency of fruit intake rose, while the frequency of vegetables and fish intake declined. Nonetheless, the fatty acid composition and cooking methods are important considerations. The changes observed are concerning from a public health perspective and demonstrate the need for interventions and possible targets for tailored strategies.

Burden of road traffic injuries in Iran: a national and subnational perspective, 1990-2019.

OBJECTIVES: Reliable and valid information on burden of road traffic injuries (RTIs) is essential for short-term and long-term planning. We designed the present study to describe the levels and trends of burden of RTIs in Iran from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: This is an observational epidemiological study. We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 estimates to report RTIs incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by sex, age group and road user category in Iran and each of the 31 provinces from 1990 to 2019. RESULTS: Age-standardised incidence, prevalence, death and DALY rates of RTIs decreased by 31.7% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 29.4 to 33.9), 34.9% (33.8 to 36.0), 57.7% (48.1 to 62.3) and 60.1% (51.7 to 65.2), respectively between 1990 and 2019. The 2019 age-standardised DALY rates varied from smallest value in Tehran 303.8 (216.9 to 667.2) per 100 000 to largest value in Sistan-Baluchistan 2286.8 (1978.1 to 2627.9) per 100 000. The burden of RTIs was mainly related to injuries sustained by drivers or passengers of motorised vehicles with three or more wheels and pedestrians' injuries, mostly affected males aged 15-29 years and individuals aged ≥70 years. CONCLUSION: The reducing trend in the burden of RTIs in Iran possibly reflects the effectiveness of the intervention programmes. However, with regard to the Sustainable Development Goals the burden is still at an alarming level. Further reductions are necessary for specific road user groups such as adolescent and adult male drivers or passengers of motorised vehicles, also pedestrians aged ≥70 years.

The causal effect of family physician program on the prevalence, screening, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension and diabetes mellitus in an Eastern Mediterranean Region: a causal difference-in-differences analysis.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension (HTN) and diabetes mellitus (DM) as part of non-communicable diseases are among the most common causes of death worldwide, especially in the WHO's Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). The family physician program (FPP) proposed by WHO is a health strategy to provide primary health care and improve the community's awareness of non-communicable diseases. Since there was no clear focus on the causal effect of FPP on the prevalence, screening, and awareness of HTN and DM, the primary objective of this study is to determine the causal effect of FPP on these factors in Iran, which is an EMR country. METHODS: We conducted a repeated cross-sectional design based on two independent surveys of 42,776 adult participants in 2011 and 2016, of which 2301 individuals were selected from two regions where the family physician program was implemented (FPP) and where it wasn't (non-FPP). We used an Inverse Probability Weighting difference-in-differences and Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation analysis to estimate the average treatment effects on treated (ATT) using R version 4.1.1. RESULTS: The FPP implementation increased the screening (ATT = 36%, 95% CI: (27%, 45%), P-value < 0.001) and the control of hypertension (ATT = 26%, 95% CI: (1%, 52%), P-value = 0.03) based on 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines that these results were in keeping with JNC7. There was no causal effect in other indexes, such as prevalence, awareness, and treatment. The DM screening (ATT = 20%, 95% CI: (6%, 34%), P-value = 0.004) and awareness (ATT = 14%, 95% CI: (1%, 27%), P-value = 0.042) were significantly increased among FPP administered region. However, the treatment of HTN decreased (ATT = -32%, 95% CI: (-59%, -5%), P-value = 0.012). CONCLUSION: This study has identified some limitations related to the FPP in managing HTN and DM, and presented solutions to solve them in two general categories. Thus, we recommend that the FPP be revised before the generalization of the program to other parts of Iran.

The burden of childhood and adolescent cancers in North Africa and the Middle East (NAME) region: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the significant burden of childhood and adolescent cancers, no specific studies recently discussed the burden of cancer in this group in the North Africa and the Middle East (NAME) region. Therefore, we aimed to study the burden of cancers in this group in this region. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrieved the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data for children and adolescent cancers (0-19 years old) in the NAME region from 1990 to 2019. 21 types of neoplasms were grouped as "neoplasms", comprising 19 specific cancer groups as well as "other malignant neoplasms" and "other neoplasms". Three significant parameters of incidence, deaths, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were studied. The data are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI), and reported rates per 100,000. RESULTS: In 2019, almost 6 million (95% UI: 4.166 M-8.405 M) new cases and 11,560(9770-13,578) deaths due to neoplasms occurred in the NAME region. Incidence was higher in females (3.4 M), while deaths (6226 of overall 11,560) and DALYs (501,118 of overall 933,885) were estimated as higher in males. Incidence rates did not significantly change since 1990, while deaths and DALYs rates declined significantly. After excluding "other malignant neoplasms" and "other neoplasms", leukemia was responsible for the highest number of incidence and deaths (incidence: 10,629(8237-13,081), deaths: 4053(3135-5013), followed by brain and central nervous system cancers (incidence: 5897(4192-7134), deaths: 2446(1761-2960)), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (incidence: 2741 (2237-3392), deaths: 790(645-962)). Incidence rates of neoplasms were similar for most countries, but countries varied more in terms of death rates. Afghanistan 8.9(6.5-11.9), Sudan 6.4(4.5-8.6), and the Syrian Arab Republic 5.6(4.3-8.3) had the highest overall death rates. CONCLUSION: The NAME region is observing relatively constant incidence rates and a decreasing pattern in the deaths and DALYs. Despite this success, several countries are lagging behind in development. Different issues such as economic problems, armed conflicts and political instabilities, lack of equipment or experienced staff or poor distribution, stigmatization and disbelief in the healthcare systems account for unfavorable numbers in some countries. Such problems require urgent solutions as new sophisticated and personalized cares raise the alarm for even more inequalities between high and low-income countries.

Aspirin for Secondary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in 51 Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Countries.

Importance: Aspirin is an effective and low-cost option for reducing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and improving mortality rates among individuals with established CVD. To guide efforts to mitigate the global CVD burden, there is a need to understand current levels of aspirin use for secondary prevention of CVD. Objective: To report and evaluate aspirin use for secondary prevention of CVD across low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Design, Setting, and Participants: Cross-sectional analysis using pooled, individual participant data from nationally representative health surveys conducted between 2013 and 2020 in 51 low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Included surveys contained data on self-reported history of CVD and aspirin use. The sample of participants included nonpregnant adults aged 40 to 69 years. Exposures: Countries' per capita income levels and world region; individuals' socioeconomic demographics. Main Outcomes and Measures: Self-reported use of aspirin for secondary prevention of CVD. Results: The overall pooled sample included 124 505 individuals. The median age was 52 (IQR, 45-59) years, and 50.5% (95% CI, 49.9%-51.1%) were women. A total of 10 589 individuals had a self-reported history of CVD (8.1% [95% CI, 7.6%-8.6%]). Among individuals with a history of CVD, aspirin use for secondary prevention in the overall pooled sample was 40.3% (95% CI, 37.6%-43.0%). By income group, estimates were 16.6% (95% CI, 12.4%-21.9%) in low-income countries, 24.5% (95% CI, 20.8%-28.6%) in lower-middle-income countries, 51.1% (95% CI, 48.2%-54.0%) in upper-middle-income countries, and 65.0% (95% CI, 59.1%-70.4%) in high-income countries. Conclusion and Relevance: Worldwide, aspirin is underused in secondary prevention, particularly in low-income countries. National health policies and health systems must develop, implement, and evaluate strategies to promote aspirin therapy.

Variation in the Proportion of Adults in Need of Blood Pressure-Lowering Medications by Hypertension Care Guideline in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Cross-Sectional Study of 1 037 215 Individuals From 50 Nationally Representative Surveys.

BACKGROUND: Current hypertension guidelines vary substantially in their definition of who should be offered blood pressure-lowering medications. Understanding the effect of guideline choice on the proportion of adults who require treatment is crucial for planning and scaling up hypertension care in low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: We extracted cross-sectional data on age, sex, blood pressure, hypertension treatment and diagnosis status, smoking, and body mass index for adults 30 to 70 years of age from nationally representative surveys in 50 low- and middle-income countries (N = 1 037 215). We aimed to determine the effect of hypertension guideline choice on the proportion of adults in need of blood pressure-lowering medications. We considered 4 hypertension guidelines: the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline, the commonly used 140/90 mm Hg threshold, the 2016 World Health Organization HEARTS guideline, and the 2019 UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guideline. RESULTS: The proportion of adults in need of blood pressure-lowering medications was highest under the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association, followed by the 140/90 mm Hg, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, and World Health Organization guidelines (American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association: women, 27.7% [95% CI, 27.2-28.2], men, 35.0% [95% CI, 34.4-35.7]; 140/90 mm Hg: women, 26.1% [95% CI, 25.5-26.6], men, 31.2% [95% CI, 30.6-31.9]; National Institute for Health and Care Excellence: women, 11.8% [95% CI, 11.4-12.1], men, 15.7% [95% CI, 15.3-16.2]; World Health Organization: women, 9.2% [95% CI, 8.9-9.5], men, 11.0% [95% CI, 10.6-11.4]). Individuals who were unaware that they have hypertension were the primary contributor to differences in the proportion needing treatment under different guideline criteria. Differences in the proportion needing blood pressure-lowering medications were largest in the oldest (65-69 years) age group (American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association: women, 60.2% [95% CI, 58.8-61.6], men, 70.1% [95% CI, 68.8-71.3]; World Health Organization: women, 20.1% [95% CI, 18.8-21.3], men, 24.1.0% [95% CI, 22.3-25.9]). For both women and men and across all guidelines, countries in the European and Eastern Mediterranean regions had the highest proportion of adults in need of blood pressure-lowering medicines, whereas the South and Central Americas had the lowest. CONCLUSIONS: There was substantial variation in the proportion of adults in need of blood pressure-lowering medications depending on which hypertension guideline was used. Given the great implications of this choice for health system capacity, policy makers will need to carefully consider which guideline they should adopt when scaling up hypertension care in their country.

Body-mass index and diabetes risk in 57 low-income and middle-income countries: a cross-sectional study of nationally representative, individual-level data in 685 616 adults.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of overweight, obesity, and diabetes is rising rapidly in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), but there are scant empirical data on the association between body-mass index (BMI) and diabetes in these settings. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we pooled individual-level data from nationally representative surveys across 57 LMICs. We identified all countries in which a WHO Stepwise Approach to Surveillance (STEPS) survey had been done during a year in which the country fell into an eligible World Bank income group category. For LMICs that did not have a STEPS survey, did not have valid contact information, or declined our request for data, we did a systematic search for survey datasets. Eligible surveys were done during or after 2008; had individual-level data; were done in a low-income, lower-middle-income, or upper-middle-income country; were nationally representative; had a response rate of 50% or higher; contained a diabetes biomarker (either a blood glucose measurement or glycated haemoglobin [HbA1c]); and contained data on height and weight. Diabetes was defined biologically as a fasting plasma glucose concentration of 7·0 mmol/L (126·0 mg/dL) or higher; a random plasma glucose concentration of 11·1 mmol/L (200·0 mg/dL) or higher; or a HbA1c of 6·5% (48·0 mmol/mol) or higher, or by self-reported use of diabetes medication. We included individuals aged 25 years or older with complete data on diabetes status, BMI (defined as normal [18·5-22·9 kg/m2], upper-normal [23·0-24·9 kg/m2], overweight [25·0-29·9 kg/m2], or obese [≥30·0 kg/m2]), sex, and age. Countries were categorised into six geographical regions: Latin America and the Caribbean, Europe and central Asia, east, south, and southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East and north Africa, and Oceania. We estimated the association between BMI and diabetes risk by multivariable Poisson regression and receiver operating curve analyses, stratified by sex and geographical region. FINDINGS: Our pooled dataset from 58 nationally representative surveys in 57 LMICs included 685 616 individuals. The overall prevalence of overweight was 27·2% (95% CI 26·6-27·8), of obesity was 21·0% (19·6-22·5), and of diabetes was 9·3% (8·4-10·2). In the pooled analysis, a higher risk of diabetes was observed at a BMI of 23 kg/m2 or higher, with a 43% greater risk of diabetes for men and a 41% greater risk for women compared with a BMI of 18·5-22·9 kg/m2. Diabetes risk also increased steeply in individuals aged 35-44 years and in men aged 25-34 years in sub-Saharan Africa. In the stratified analyses, there was considerable regional variability in this association. Optimal BMI thresholds for diabetes screening ranged from 23·8 kg/m2 among men in east, south, and southeast Asia to 28·3 kg/m2 among women in the Middle East and north Africa and in Latin America and the Caribbean. INTERPRETATION: The association between BMI and diabetes risk in LMICs is subject to substantial regional variability. Diabetes risk is greater at lower BMI thresholds and at younger ages than reflected in currently used BMI cutoffs for assessing diabetes risk. These findings offer an important insight to inform context-specific diabetes screening guidelines. FUNDING: Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health McLennan Fund: Dean's Challenge Grant Program.

The burden of chronic respiratory disease and attributable risk factors in North Africa and Middle East: findings from global burden of disease study (GBD) 2019.

BACKGROUND: North Africa and Middle East (NAME) has an increasing burden of chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs); however, a systematic understanding of the distribution and trends is not available. We aimed to report the trends of CRDs and attributable risk factors in this region between 1990 and 2019. METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2019, cause specific mortality served as the basis for estimating incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The burden attributable to risk factors was calculated by a comparative risk assessment and contribution of population ageing and growth was determined by decomposition analysis. RESULTS: The number of deaths due to CRD in 2019 were 128,513 (110,781 to 114,351). In 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of CRDs was 1052.8 (924.3 to 1209.4) per 100,000 population and had a 10.3% increase and the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) was 36.1 (30.9 to 40.3) with a 32.9% decrease compared to 1990. In 2019, United Arab Emirates had the highest ASIR (1412.7 [1237.3 to 1622.2]) and Afghanistan had the highest ASDR (67.8 [52.0 to 81.3]). CRDs were responsible for 2.91% of total DALYs in 2019 (1.69% due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD] and 1.02% due to asthma). With regard to the components of DALYs, the age-standardized rate of years of life lost (YLL) had a - 39.0% (- 47.1 to - 30.3) decrease; while the age-standardized rate of years lived with disability (YLD) had a 13.4% (9.5 to 17.7) increase. Of total ASDRs of CRDs, 31.6% were attributable to smoking and 14.4% to ambient particulate matter pollution. CONCLUSION: CRDs remain a leading cause of death and disability in NAME, with growth in absolute numbers. COPD and asthma were the most common CRDs and smoking was the leading risk factor especially in men. More attention is needed in order to reduce CRDs' burden through appropriate interventions and policies.

Burden of stroke in North Africa and Middle East, 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: While several studies investigated the epidemiology and burden of stroke in the North Africa and Middle East region, no study has comprehensively evaluated the age-standardized attributable burden to all stroke subtypes and their risk factors yet. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study is to explore the regional distribution of the burden of stroke, including ischemic stroke, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and intracerebral hemorrhage, and the attributable burden to its risk factors in 2019 among the 21 countries of North Africa and Middle East super-region. METHODS: The data of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 on stroke incidence, prevalence, death, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs) rates, and attributed deaths, DALYs, YLLs, and YLDs to stroke risk factors were used for the present study. RESULTS: The age-standardized deaths, DALYs, and YLLs rates were diminished statistically significant by 27.8, 32.0, and 35.1% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. Attributed deaths, DALYs, and YLLs to stroke risk factors, including high systolic blood pressure, high body-mass index, and high fasting plasma glucose shrank statistically significant by 24.9, 25.8, and 28.8%, respectively. CONCLUSION: While the age-standardized stroke burden has reduced during these 30 years, it is still a concerning issue due to its increased burden in all-age numbers. Well-developed primary prevention, timely diagnosis and management of the stroke and its risk factors might be appreciated for further decreasing the burden of stroke and its risk factors and reaching Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 target for reducing premature mortality from non-communicable diseases.

Estimating the burden of diseases attributable to lead exposure in the North Africa and Middle East region, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Lead exposure (LE) and its attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) have declined in the recent decade; however, it remains one of the leading public health concerns, particularly in regions with low socio-demographic index (SDI) such as the North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region. Hence, we aimed to describe the attributable burden of the LE in this region. METHODS: Data on deaths, DALYs, years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) attributable to LE in the NAME region and its 21 countries from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. RESULTS: In 2019, the age-standardized death and DALY rates attributable to LE were 23.4 (95% uncertainty interval: 15.1 to 33.3) and 489.3 (320.5 to 669.6) per 100,000 in the region, respectively, both of which were higher among men than women. The overall age-standardized death and DALY rates showed 27.7% and 36.8% decreases, respectively, between 1990 and 2019. In this period, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey had the highest decreases in the age-standardized death and DALY rates, while Afghanistan, Egypt, and Yemen had the lowest ones. Countries within high SDI quintile had lower attributable burden to LE compared with the low SDI quintile. Cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney diseases accounted for the 414.2 (258.6 to 580.6) and 28.7 (17.7 to 41.7) LE attributable DALYs per 100,000 in 2019, respectively. The attributable YLDs was 46.4 (20.7 to 82.1) per 100,000 in 2019, which shows a 25.7% reduction (-30.8 to -22.5%) over 1990-2019. CONCLUSIONS: The overall LE and its attributed burden by cause have decreased in the region from 1990-2019. Nevertheless, the application of cost-effective and long-term programs for decreasing LE and its consequences in NAME is needed.

Trends in dental caries of deciduous teeth in Iran: a systematic analysis of the national and sub-national data from 1990 to 2017.

BACKGROUND: Dental caries is the most prevalent child affliction in the world and can be reduced through effective preventive interventions. To plan cost-effective interventions, clear and integrated data are needed. This study has been designed to overcome the lack of national trend in deciduous dental caries in Iran. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the dental caries trend in deciduous teeth in the Iranian population at different ages from 1990 to 2017. METHODS: From 1990 to 2017 a literature search about dmf and its components (decayed, missed, and filled tooth, abbreviated as dt, mt, and ft) as well as dental caries was done in the Iranian population in three English (PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus) and three national databases (in Persian). All eligible national oral health surveys in these 28 years were included. National dmft data were categorised based on age (1-4, 5-9, and 10-14), sex, province and year. The final trends were estimated using an age-spatio-temporal hierarchical model. We used the bootstrap method in multilevel models to predict the uncertainty interval (UI) of the modelled results. Finally, the estimations of dmft, dt, mt, and ft with a 95% UI were reported from 1990 to 2017. RESULTS: Almost 22% of the Iranian deciduous teeth were involved with dental caries in 1990 [dmft = 4.37; (95% UI 2.23, 6.62)] which more than 83% of it was dt [3.64 (1.53, 5.88)] and less than 7% was ft [0.30 (0.06, 0.65)]. During 1990-2017, dmft increased by more than 15% [in 2017, dmft = 5.03 (2.82, 7.29)]. The highest increase was seen in dt which was more than 17% [in 2017, dt = 4.27 (1.96, 6.57)]. CONCLUSION: Increasing dental caries among Iranian children over 28 years shows that oral health policies in Iran need critical evaluation. We need cost-effective nationwide interventions (e.g., supervised tooth brushing and improving dietary habits) and training well-experienced intermediate manpower (e.g., dental hygienists) to reduce dental caries.

Trends of Diabetes Mortality in Iran at National and Sub-National Levels from 1990 to 2015 and Its Association with Socioeconomic Factors.

Background: Following global commitments to prevent and control non-communicable diseases, we sought to estimate national and sub-national trends in diabetes mortality in Iran and assess its association with socioeconomic factors. Methods: In a systematic analytical study, to assess the correlation between diabetes mortality and socioeconomic factors, we used data obtained from the Death Registration System (DRS), the Spatio-temporal model and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) levels and the diabetes mortality trends, which were estimated by sex, age and year at national and sub-national levels from 1990 to 2015. Results: Between the years 1990 and 2015, the age-standardized diabetes mortality rate (per 100,000) increased from 3.40 (95% UI: 2.33 to 4.99) to 7.72 (95% UI: 5.51 to 10.78) in males and from 4.66 (95% UI: 3.23 to 6.76) to 10.38 (95% UI: 7.54 to 14.23) in females. In 1990, the difference between the highest age-standardized diabetes mortality rate among males was 3.88 times greater than the lowest (5.97 vs. 1.54), and in 2015 this difference was 3.96 times greater (14.65 vs. 3.70). This provincial difference was higher among females and was 5.13 times greater in 1990 (8.41 vs. 1.64) and 5.04 times greater in 2015 (19.87 vs. 3.94). The rate of diabetes mortality rose with urbanization yet declined with an increase in wealth and years of schooling as the main socio-economic factors. Conclusion: The rising trend of diabetes mortality rate at the national level and the sub-national disparities associated with socioeconomic status in Iran warrant the implementation of specific interventions recommended by the '25 by 25' goal.