ABSTRACT
By September 21, 2021, an estimated 182 million persons in the United States were fully vaccinated against COVID-19.* Clinical trials indicate that Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2), Moderna (mRNA-1273), and Janssen (Johnson & Johnson; Ad.26.COV2.S) vaccines are effective and generally well tolerated (1-3). However, daily vaccination rates have declined approximately 78% since April 13, 2021; vaccine safety concerns have contributed to vaccine hesitancy (4). A cohort study of 19,625 nursing home residents found that those who received an mRNA vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna) had lower all-cause mortality than did unvaccinated residents (5), but no studies comparing mortality rates within the general population of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons have been conducted. To assess mortality not associated with COVID-19 (non-COVID-19 mortality) after COVID-19 vaccination in a general population setting, a cohort study was conducted during December 2020-July 2021 among approximately 11 million persons enrolled in seven Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) sites.§ After standardizing mortality rates by age and sex, this study found that COVID-19 vaccine recipients had lower non-COVID-19 mortality than did unvaccinated persons. After adjusting for demographic characteristics and VSD site, this study found that adjusted relative risk (aRR) of non-COVID-19 mortality for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 0.41 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.38-0.44) after dose 1 and 0.34 (95% CI = 0.33-0.36) after dose 2. The aRRs of non-COVID-19 mortality for the Moderna vaccine were 0.34 (95% CI = 0.32-0.37) after dose 1 and 0.31 (95% CI = 0.30-0.33) after dose 2. The aRR after receipt of the Janssen vaccine was 0.54 (95% CI = 0.49-0.59). There is no increased risk for mortality among COVID-19 vaccine recipients. This finding reinforces the safety profile of currently approved COVID-19 vaccines in the United States.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines/administration & dosage , Mortality/trends , Vaccination/statistics & numerical data , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Child , Delivery of Health Care, Integrated , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Risk , United States/epidemiology , Young AdultABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Dramatic decreases in outpatient visits and sudden increases in telehealth visits were observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, but it was unclear whether these changes differed by patient demographics and socioeconomic status. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the impact of the pandemic on in-person outpatient and telehealth visits (telephone and video) by demographic characteristics and household income in a diverse population. METHODS: We calculated weekly rates of outpatient and telehealth visits by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and neighborhood-level median household income among members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) from January 5, 2020, to October 31, 2020, and the corresponding period in 2019. We estimated the percentage change in visit rates during the early pandemic period (March 22 to April 25, 2020) and the late pandemic period (October 4 to October 31, 2020) from the prepandemic period (January 5 to March 7, 2020) in Poisson regression models for each subgroup while adjusting for seasonality using 2019 data. We examined if the changes in visit rates differed by subgroups statistically by comparing their 95% CIs. RESULTS: Among 4.56 million KPSC members enrolled in January 2020, 15.0% (n=682,947) were ≥65 years old, 51.5% (n=2,345,020) were female, 39.4% (n=1,795,994) were Hispanic, and 7.7% (n=350,721) lived in an area of median household income Subject(s)
COVID-19
, Telemedicine
, Aged
, Delivery of Health Care
, Female
, Humans
, Outpatients
, Pandemics
, Retrospective Studies
, SARS-CoV-2
ABSTRACT
Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is a genetic kidney disease with high phenotypic variability. Furthering insights into patients' ADPKD progression could lead to earlier detection, management, and alter the course to end stage kidney disease (ESKD). We sought to identify patients with rapid decline (RD) in kidney function and to determine clinical factors associated with RD using a data-driven approach. A retrospective cohort study was performed among patients with incident ADPKD (1/1/2002-12/31/2018). Latent class mixed models were used to identify RD patients using differences in eGFR trajectories over time. Predictors of RD were selected based on agreements among feature selection methods, including logistic, regularized, and random forest modeling. The final model was built on the selected predictors and clinically relevant covariates. Among 1,744 patients with incident ADPKD, 125 (7%) were identified as RD. Feature selection included 42 clinical measurements for adaptation with multiple imputations; mean (SD) eGFR was 85.2 (47.3) and 72.9 (34.4) in the RD and non-RD groups, respectively. Multiple imputed datasets identified variables as important features to distinguish RD and non-RD groups with the final prediction model determined as a balance between area under the curve (AUC) and clinical relevance which included 6 predictors: age, sex, hypertension, cerebrovascular disease, hemoglobin, and proteinuria. Results showed 72%-sensitivity, 70%-specificity, 70%-accuracy, and 0.77-AUC in identifying RD. 5-year ESKD rates were 38% and 7% among RD and non-RD groups, respectively. Using real-world routine clinical data among patients with incident ADPKD, we observed that six variables highly predicted RD in kidney function.
Subject(s)
Disease Progression , Glomerular Filtration Rate , Polycystic Kidney, Autosomal Dominant , Humans , Male , Female , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies , Adult , Kidney/physiopathology , Kidney/pathology , Kidney Failure, Chronic/epidemiologyABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Blood pressure (BP) trajectories from young adulthood through middle age are associated with cardiovascular risk. We examined the associations of hypertension risk factors with BP trajectories among a large diverse sample. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed data from young adults, aged 18 to 39 years, with untreated BP <140/90 mm Hg at baseline from Kaiser Permanente Southern California (N=355 324). We used latent growth curve models to identify 10-year BP trajectories and to assess the associations between characteristics in young adulthood and BP trajectories. We identified the following 5 distinct systolic BP trajectories, which appeared to be determined mainly by the baseline BP with progressively higher BP at each year: group 1 (lowest BP trajectory, 7.9%), group 2 (26.5%), group 3 (33.0%), group 4 (25.4%), and group 5 (highest BP trajectory, 7.3%). Older age (adjusted odds ratio for 30-39 versus 18-29 years, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.18-1.28]), male sex (13.38 [95% CI, 12.80-13.99]), obesity (body mass index ≥30 versus 18.5-24.9 kg/m2, 14.81 [95% CI, 14.03-15.64]), overweight (body mass index 25-29.9 versus 18.5-24.9 kg/m2, 3.16 [95% CI, 3.00-3.33]), current smoking (1.58 [95% CI, 1.48-1.67]), prediabetes (1.21 [95% CI, 1.13-1.29]), diabetes (1.60 [95% CI, 1.41-1.81]) and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (≥160 versus <100 mg/dL, 1.52 [95% CI, 1.37-1.68]) were associated with the highest BP trajectory (group 5) compared with the reference group (group 2). CONCLUSIONS: Traditional hypertension risk factors including smoking, diabetes, and elevated lipids were associated with BP trajectories in young adults, with obesity having the strongest association with the highest BP trajectory group.
Subject(s)
Diabetes Mellitus , Hypertension , Middle Aged , Male , Humans , Young Adult , Adult , Blood Pressure/physiology , Hypertension/diagnosis , Hypertension/epidemiology , Hypertension/complications , Risk Factors , Obesity/epidemiology , Obesity/complicationsABSTRACT
Rationale & Objective: Understanding potential differences in patterns of kidney failure among patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) may provide insights into improving disease management. We sought to characterize patients with ADPKD and kidney failure across different race/ethnicities. Study Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting & Participants: Kaiser Permanente Southern California members diagnosed with ADPKD between January1, 2002, and December 31, 2018. Exposure: ADPKD. Outcome: Kidney failure, dialysis, or receipt of kidney transplant. Analytical Approach: Differences in characteristics by race/ethnicity were assessed using analysis of variance F test and χ2 test. To compare the range and distribution of the average age at onset of kidney failure by race/ethnicity and sex, we used box plots and confidence intervals. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate OR for kidney transplant. Results: Among 3,677 ADPKD patients, 1,027 (27.3%) had kidney failure. The kidney failure cohort was comprised of Black (n=138; 30.7%), White (n=496; 30.6%), Hispanic (n=306; 24.7%), and Asian (n=87; 23.6%) patients. Hispanic patients had the youngest mean age of kidney failure onset (50 years) compared to Black (56 years) and White (57 years) patients. Black (44.2%; OR, 0.72) and Hispanic (49.7%; OR, 0.65) patients had lower rates of kidney transplantation compared to White (53.8%) patients. Preemptive kidney transplantations occurred in 15.0% of patients. Limitations: Retrospective study design and possible misclassification of ADPKD cases. Kidney function calculations were based on equations incorporating race, potentially overestimating kidney function in African Americans. The study was conducted within a single, integrated health care system in 1 geographic region and may not be generalizable to all ADPKD patients. Conclusions: Among a large diverse ADPKD population, we observed racial/ethnic differences in rates of kidney failure, age of kidney failure onset, and rates of kidney transplantation. Our real-world ADPKD cohort provides insight into racial/ethnic variation in clinical features of disease and potential disparities in care, which may affect ADPKD outcomes.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The safety of COVID-19 vaccines plays an important role in addressing vaccine hesitancy. We conducted a large cohort study to evaluate the risk of non-COVID-19 mortality after COVID-19 vaccination while adjusting for confounders including individual-level demographics, clinical risk factors, health care utilization, and community-level socioeconomic risk factors. METHODS: The retrospective cohort study consisted of members from seven Vaccine Safety Datalink sites from December 14, 2020 through August 31, 2021. We conducted three separate analyses for each of the three COVID-19 vaccines used in the US. Crude non-COVID-19 mortality rates were reported by vaccine type, age, sex, and race/ethnicity. The counting process model for survival analyses was used to analyze non-COVID-19 mortality where a new observation period began when the vaccination status changed upon receipt of the first dose and the second dose. We used calendar time as the basic time scale in survival analyses to implicitly adjust for season and other temporal trend factors. A propensity score approach was used to adjust for the potential imbalance in confounders between the vaccinated and comparison groups. RESULTS: For each vaccine type and across age, sex, and race/ethnicity groups, crude non-COVID-19 mortality rates among COVID-19 vaccinees were lower than those among comparators. After adjusting for confounders with the propensity score approach, the adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) were 0.46 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.44-0.49) after dose 1 and 0.48 (95% CI, 0.46-0.50) after dose 2 of the BNT162b2 vaccine, 0.41 (95% CI, 0.39-0.44) after dose 1 and 0.38 (95% CI, 0.37-0.40) after dose 2 of the mRNA-1273 vaccine, and 0.55 (95% CI, 0.51-0.59) after receipt of Ad26.COV2.S. CONCLUSION: While residual confounding bias remained after adjusting for several individual-level and community-level risk factors, no increased risk was found for non-COVID-19 mortality among recipients of three COVID-19 vaccines used in the US.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines , COVID-19 , Humans , COVID-19 Vaccines/adverse effects , 2019-nCoV Vaccine mRNA-1273 , Ad26COVS1 , BNT162 Vaccine , Cohort Studies , Retrospective Studies , COVID-19/prevention & control , Vaccination/adverse effectsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic caused an abrupt drop in in-person health care (inpatient, Emergency Department, outpatient) and an increase in telehealth care, which poses challenges in vaccine safety studies that identify outcomes from in-person encounters. We examined the changes in incidence rates of selected encounter-based outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We assembled a cohort of members from 8 Vaccine Safety Datalink sites from January 1, 2017 through December 31, 2020. Using ICD-10 diagnosis codes or laboratory criteria, we identified 21 incident outcomes in traditional in-person settings and all settings. We defined 4 periods in 2020: January-February (pre-pandemic), April-June (early pandemic), July-September (middle pandemic), and October-December (late pandemic). We defined four corresponding periods in each year during 2017-2019. We calculated incidence rates, conducted difference in difference (DiD) analyses, and reported ratios of incidence rate ratios (RRR) to examine changes in rates from pre-pandemic to early, middle, and late pandemic in 2020, after adjusting for changes across similar periods in 2017-2019. RESULTS: Among > 10 million members, regardless of setting and after adjusting for changes during 2017-2019, we found that incidence rates of acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, encephalitis/myelitis/encephalomyelitis/meningoencephalitis, and thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura did not significantly change from the pre-pandemic to early, middle or late pandemic periods (p-values ≥ 0.05). Incidence rates decreased from the pre-pandemic to early pandemic period during 2020 for acute myocardial infarction, anaphylaxis, appendicitis, Bell's palsy, convulsions/seizures, Guillain-Barré syndrome, immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), narcolepsy/cataplexy, hemorrhagic stroke, ischemic stroke, and venous thromboembolism (p-values < 0.05). Incidence rates of Bell's palsy, ITP, and narcolepsy/cataplexy were higher in all settings than in traditional in-person settings during the three pandemic periods (p-values < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Rates of some clinical outcomes during the pandemic changed and should not be used as historical background rates in vaccine safety studies. Inclusion of telehealth visits should be considered for vaccine studies involving Bell's palsy, ITP, and narcolepsy/cataplexy.