The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on people living with HIV in Zimbabwe.

The COVID-19 pandemic was reported from March 2020 in Zimbabwe. COVID-19 containment measures which included repeated lockdowns have disrupted community interactions, reduced working hours, restricted travel and restricted HIV services for people living with HIV (PLHIV), among others. The study adopted a cross-sectional design. Both qualitative and quantitative data were collected in all the 10 provinces and analysed. A sample size of 480 was calculated for the cross-sectional survey. Secondary data on HIV early warning indicators from 2018 to 2021 were extracted from 20 randomly selected health facilities and used for modelling. Mathematical modelling was conducted to assess the impact of COVID-19 on PLHIV. AIDS-related deaths increased from 20 100 in 2019 to 22 200 in 2020. In addition, there were significant years of life lost (yLLs) from premature mortality and years of life lost due to disability (yLDs) from COVID-19. Prevalence of COVID-19 among PLHIV was 4%. COVID-19 vaccination coverage was 64%, which is higher than the national average of 42%. Stress and breach of confidentiality as ARV medicines were given out in open spaces and fear of contracting COVID-19 were the perceived psychological issues. COVID-19 disrupted HIV service provision, increased AIDS-related deaths and caused psychological challenges.

Economic implications of COVID-19 for the HIV epidemic and the response in Zimbabwe.

Understanding the economic implications of COVID-19 for the HIV epidemic and response is critical for designing policies and strategies to effectively sustain past gains and accelerate progress to end these colliding pandemics. While considerable cross-national empirical evidence exists at the global level, there is a paucity of such deep-dive evidence at national level. This article addresses this gap. While Zimbabwe experienced fewer COVID-19 cases and deaths than most countries, the pandemic has had profound economic effects, reducing gross domestic product by nearly 7% in 2020. This exacerbates the long-term economic crisis that began in 1998. This has left many households vulnerable to the economic fallout from COVID-19, with the number of the extreme poor having increased to 49% of the population in 2020 (up from 38% in 2019). The national HIV response, largely financed externally, has been one of the few bright spots. Overall, macro-economic and social conditions heavily affected the capacity of Zimbabwe to respond to COVID-19. Few options were available for borrowing the needed sums of money. National outlays for COVID-19 mitigation and vaccination amounted to 2% of GDP, with one-third funded by external donors. Service delivery innovations helped sustain access to HIV treatment during national lockdowns. As a result of reduced access to HIV testing, the number of people initiating HIV treatment declined. In the short term, there are likely to be few immediate health care consequences of the slowdown in treatment initiation due to the country's already high level of HIV treatment coverage. However, a longer-lasting slowdown could impede national progress towards ending HIV and AIDS. The findings suggest a need to finance the global commons, specifically recognising that investing in health care is investing in economic recovery.

HIV testing uptake and retention in care of HIV-infected pregnant and breastfeeding women initiated on 'Option B+' in rural Zimbabwe.

OBJECTIVES: Zimbabwe has started to scale up Option B+ for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, but there is little published information about uptake or retention in care. This study determined the number and proportion of pregnant and lactating women in rural districts diagnosed with HIV infection and started on Option B+ along with six-month antiretroviral treatment (ART) outcomes. METHODS: This was a retrospective record review of women presenting to antenatal care or maternal and child health services at 34 health facilities in Chikomba and Gutu rural districts, Zimbabwe, between January and March 2014. RESULTS: A total of 2728 women presented to care of whom 2598 were eligible for HIV testing: 76% presented to antenatal care, 20% during labour and delivery and 4% while breastfeeding. Of 2097 (81%) HIV-tested women, 7% were HIV positive. Lower HIV testing uptake was found with increasing parity, late presentation to antenatal care, health centre attendance and in women tested during labour. Ninety-one per cent of the HIV-positive women were started on Option B+. Six-month ART retention in care, including transfers, was 83%. Loss to follow-up was the main cause of attrition. Increasing age and gravida status ≥2 were associated with higher six-month attrition. CONCLUSION: The uptake of HIV testing and Option B+ is high in women attending antenatal and post-natal clinics in rural Zimbabwe, suggesting that the strategy is feasible for national scale-up in the country.

Moving beyond hotspots of HIV prevalence to geospatial hotspots of UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets in sub-Saharan Africa.

The HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa displays a varied geographical distribution, with particular regions termed as HIV hotspots due to a higher prevalence of infection. Addressing these hotspots is essential for controlling the epidemic. However, these regions, influenced by historical factors, challenge standard interventions. Legacy effects-the lasting impact of past events-play a substantial role in the persistence of these hotspots. To address this challenge of the standard interventions, we propose a shift towards the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets. Spatial analysis of HIV viral load and antiretroviral therapy coverage can provide a more comprehensive perspective on the epidemic's dynamics. Studies in Zambia and Zimbabwe, using this approach, have revealed disparities in HIV care metrics across regions. By focusing on the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets, more effective control strategies can be designed, with consideration of both historical and current factors. This approach would offer a solution-oriented strategy, emphasising tailored interventions based on specific regional needs.

Predicting sexually transmitted infections among men who have sex with men in Zimbabwe using deep learning and ensemble machine learning models.

There is a substantial increase in sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among men who have sex with men (MSM) globally. Unprotected sexual practices, multiple sex partners, criminalization, stigmatisation, fear of discrimination, substance use, poor access to care, and lack of early STI screening tools are among the contributing factors. Therefore, this study applied multilayer perceptron (MLP), extremely randomized trees (ExtraTrees) and XGBoost machine learning models to predict STIs among MSM using bio-behavioural survey (BBS) data in Zimbabwe. Data were collected from 1538 MSM in Zimbabwe. The dataset was split into training and testing sets using the ratio of 80% and 20%, respectively. The synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) was applied to address class imbalance. Using a stepwise logistic regression model, the study revealed several predictors of STIs among MSM such as age, cohabitation with sex partners, education status and employment status. The results show that MLP performed better than STI predictive models (XGBoost and ExtraTrees) and achieved accuracy of 87.54%, recall of 97.29%, precision of 89.64%, F1-Score of 93.31% and AUC of 66.78%. XGBoost also achieved an accuracy of 86.51%, recall of 96.51%, precision of 89.25%, F1-Score of 92.74% and AUC of 54.83%. ExtraTrees recorded an accuracy of 85.47%, recall of 95.35%, precision of 89.13%, F1-Score of 92.13% and AUC of 60.21%. These models can be effectively used to identify highly at-risk MSM, for STI surveillance and to further develop STI infection screening tools to improve health outcomes of MSM.

Differentiated prevention and care to reduce the risk of HIV acquisition and transmission among female sex workers in Zimbabwe: study protocol for the 'AMETHIST' cluster randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Female sex workers (FSW) in sub-Saharan Africa are disproportionately affected by HIV and are critical to engage in HIV prevention, testing and care services. We describe the design of our evaluation of the 'AMETHIST' intervention, nested within a nationally-scaled programme for FSW in Zimbabwe. We hypothesise that the implementation of this intervention will result in a reduction in the risk of HIV transmission within sex work. METHODS: The AMETHIST intervention (Adapted Microplanning to Eliminate Transmission of HIV in Sex Transactions) is a risk-differentiated intervention for FSW, centred around the implementation of microplanning and self-help groups. It is designed to support uptake of, and adherence to, HIV prevention, testing and treatment behaviours among FSW. Twenty-two towns in Zimbabwe were randomised to receive either the Sisters programme (usual care) or the Sisters programme plus AMETHIST. The composite primary outcome is defined as the proportion of all FSW who are at risk of either HIV acquisition (HIV-negative and not fully protected by prevention interventions) or of HIV transmission (HIV-positive, not virally suppressed and not practicing consistent condom use). The outcome will be assessed after 2 years of intervention delivery in a respondent-driven sampling survey (total n = 4400; n = 200 FSW recruited at each site). Primary analysis will use the 'RDS-II' method to estimate cluster summaries and will adapt Hayes and Moulton's '2-step' method produce adjusted effect estimates. An in-depth process evaluation guided by our project trajectory will be undertaken. DISCUSSION: Innovative pragmatic trials are needed to generate evidence on effectiveness of combination interventions in HIV prevention and treatment in different contexts. We describe the design and analysis of such a study. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry PACTR202007818077777 . Registered on 2 July 2020.

Estimation of HIV incidence from analysis of HIV prevalence patterns among female sex workers in Zimbabwe.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate HIV incidence among female sex workers (FSW) in Zimbabwe: using HIV prevalence by age and number of years since started selling sex (YSSS). DESIGN: We pooled data from FSW aged 18-39 participating in respondent-driven sampling surveys conducted in Zimbabwe between 2011 and 2017. METHODS: For each year of age, we estimated: HIV prevalence ( Pt ) and the change in HIV prevalence from the previous age ( Pt - Pt -1 ). We then estimated the rate of new HIV infections during that year of age: It  =  Pt - Pt -1 /(1 - Pt -1 ), and calculated HIV incidence for 18-24 and 25-39 year-olds separately as the weighted average of It . We estimated HIV incidence for FSW 1-5 years and 6-15 years since first selling sex using the same approach, and compared HIV prevalence among FSW first selling sex at their current age with the general population. RESULTS: Among 9906 women, 50.2% were HIV positive. Based on HIV prevalence increases by age, we estimated an HIV incidence of 6.3/100 person-years at risk (pyar) (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.3, 7.6) among 18-24 year-olds, and 3.3/100 pyar (95% CI 1.3, 4.2) among 25-39 year-olds. Based on prevalence increases by YSSS, HIV incidence was 5.3/100 pyar (95% CI 4.3, 8.5) between 1 and 5 years since first selling sex, and 2.1/100 pyar (95% CI -1.3, 7.2) between 6 and 15 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis is consistent with very high HIV incidence among FSW in Zimbabwe, especially among those who are young and recently started selling sex. There is a critical need to engage young entrants into sex work in interventions that reduce their HIV risk.

Economy, migrant labour and sex work: interplay of HIV epidemic drivers in Zimbabwe over three decades.

BACKGROUND: HIV took off rapidly in Zimbabwe during the 1980s. Yet, between 1998 and 2003, as the economy faltered, HIV prevalence declined abruptly and without clear explanation. METHODS: We reviewed epidemiological, behavioural, and economic data over three decades to understand changes in economic conditions, migrant labour and sex work that may account for observed fluctuations in Zimbabwe's HIV epidemic. Potential biases related to changing epidemic paradigms and data sources were examined. RESULTS: Early studies describe rural poverty, male migrant labour and sex work as conditions facilitating HIV/sexually transmitted infection (STI) transmission. By the mid-1990s, as Zimbabwe's epidemic became more generalized, research focus shifted to general population household surveys. Yet, less than half as many men than women were found at home during surveys in the 1990s, increasing to 80% during the years of economic decline. Other studies suggest that male demand for sex work fell abruptly as migrant workers were laid off, picking up again when the economy rebounded after 2009. Numbers of clients reported by sex workers, and their STI rates, followed similar patterns reaching a nadir in the early 2000s. Studies from 2009 describe a return to more active sex work, linked to increasing client demand, as well as a revitalized programme reaching sex workers. CONCLUSION: The importance of the downturn in migrant labour and resultant changes in sex work may be underestimated as drivers of Zimbabwe's rapid HIV incidence and prevalence declines. Household surveys underrepresent populations at the highest risk of HIV/STI acquisition and transmission, and these biases vary with changing economic conditions.

How well does the process of screening and diagnosis work for HIV-infected persons identified with presumptive tuberculosis who are attending HIV care and treatment clinics in Harare city, Zimbabwe?

Background: Intensified TB case finding is recommended for all HIV-infected persons regularly attending HIV care and treatment clinics. The authors aimed to determine how well this system worked among HIV-infected patients diagnosed with presumptive TB in 14 health facilities of Harare province, Zimbabwe, between January and December 2016. Methods: Retrospective review using routine programme records. Results: Of 47 659 HIV-infected persons enrolled in HIV care, 102 were identified with presumptive TB through the programmatic electronic database. Of these, 23% (23/102) were recorded in presumptive TB registers and, of these 65% (15/23) were traced to laboratory registers. Of 79 patients not recorded in presumptive TB registers, 9% (7/79) were traced to laboratory registers. Of 22 patients in the laboratory register, all had negative sputum smears for acid-fast bacilli and 45% (10/22) had Xpert MTB/RIF assays with one positive result. Six patients altogether started anti-tuberculosis treatment, the median time from presumptive tuberculosis diagnosis to treatment being 12 days. The only significant risk factor for loss-to-follow-up between presumptive TB diagnosis and laboratory registration was not being recorded in presumptive TB registers. Conclusions: Follow-up mechanisms for presumptive TB cases diagnosed in HIV care clinics in Harare city need strengthening, particularly through improved documentation in presumptive TB registers and better Xpert MTB/RIF use.

90-90-90 by 2020? Estimation and projection of the adult HIV epidemic and ART programme in Zimbabwe - 2017 to 2020.

INTRODUCTION: The 90-90-90 targets set by the United Nations aspire to 73% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) being virally suppressed by 2020. Using the HIV Synthesis Model, we aim to mimic the epidemic in Zimbabwe and make projections to assess whether Zimbabwe is on track to meet the 90-90-90 targets and assess whether recently proposed UNAIDS HIV transition metrics are likely to be met. METHODS: We used an approximate Bayesian computation approach to identify model parameter values which result in model outputs consistent with observed data, evaluated using a calibration score. These parameter values were then used to make projections to 2020 to compare with the 90-90-90 targets and other key indicators. We also calculated HIV transition metrics proposed by UNAIDS (percentage reduction in new HIV infections and AIDS-related mortality from 2010 to 2020, absolute rate of new infections and AIDS-related mortality, incidence-mortality ratio and incidence-prevalence ratios). RESULTS: After calibration, there was general agreement between modelled and observed data. The median predicted outcomes in 2020 were: proportion of PLHIV (aged 15 to 65) diagnosed 0.91 (90% uncertainty range 0.87, 0.94) (0.84 men, 0.95 women); of those diagnosed, proportion on treatment 0.92 (0.90, 0.93); of those receiving treatment, proportion with viral suppression 0.86 (0.81, 0.91). This results in 72% of PLHIV having viral suppression in 2020. We estimated a percentage reduction of 36.5% (13.7% increase to 67.4% reduction) in new infections from 2010 to 2020, and of 30.4% (9.7% increase to 56.6% reduction) in AIDS-related mortality (UNAIDS target 75%). The modelled absolute rates of HIV incidence and AIDS-related mortality in 2020 were 5.48 (2.26, 9.24) and 1.93 (1.31, 2.71) per 1000 person-years respectively. The modelled incidence-mortality ratio and incidence-prevalence ratios in 2020 were 1.05 (0.46, 1.66) and 0.009 (0.004, 0.013) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our model was able to produce outputs that are simultaneously consistent with an array of observed data and predicted that while the 90-90-90 targets are within reach in Zimbabwe, increased efforts are required in diagnosing men in particular. Calculation of the HIV transition metrics suggest increased efforts are needed to bring the HIV epidemic under control.