Spatial and temporal distribution of infectious disease epidemics, disasters and other potential public health emergencies in the World Health Organisation Africa region, 2016-2018.

BACKGROUND: Emerging and re-emerging diseases with pandemic potential continue to challenge fragile health systems in Africa, creating enormous human and economic toll. To provide evidence for the investment case for public health emergency preparedness, we analysed the spatial and temporal distribution of epidemics, disasters and other potential public health emergencies in the WHO African region between 2016 and 2018. METHODS: We abstracted data from several sources, including: the WHO African Region's weekly bulletins on epidemics and emergencies, the WHO-Disease Outbreak News (DON) and the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) of the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). Other sources were: the Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases (ProMED) and the Global Infectious Disease and Epidemiology Network (GIDEON). We included information on the time and location of the event, the number of cases and deaths and counter-checked the different data sources. DATA ANALYSIS: We used bubble plots for temporal analysis and generated graphs and maps showing the frequency and distribution of each event. Based on the frequency of events, we categorised countries into three: Tier 1, 10 or more events, Tier 2, 5-9 events, and Tier 3, less than 5 or no event. Finally, we compared the event frequencies to a summary International Health Regulations (IHR) index generated from the IHR technical area scores of the 2018 annual reports. RESULTS: Over 260 events were identified between 2016 and 2018. Forty-one countries (87%) had at least one epidemic between 2016 and 2018, and 21 of them (45%) had at least one epidemic annually. Twenty-two countries (47%) had disasters/humanitarian crises. Seven countries (the epicentres) experienced over 10 events and all of them had limited or developing IHR capacities. The top five causes of epidemics were: Cholera, Measles, Viral Haemorrhagic Diseases, Malaria and Meningitis. CONCLUSIONS: The frequent and widespread occurrence of epidemics and disasters in Africa is a clarion call for investing in preparedness. While strengthening preparedness should be guided by global frameworks, it is the responsibility of each government to finance country specific needs. We call upon all African countries to establish governance and predictable financing mechanisms for IHR implementation and to build resilient health systems everywhere.

Trends in public health emergencies in the WHO African Region: an analysis of the past two decades public health events from 2001 to 2022.

The African Region reports the heaviest burden of public health emergencies globally. This paper presents an exploratory analysis of public health events data collected the past 22 years in the WHO Africa region, to explore patterns and trends that can inform public health strategies, policy changes and develop appropriate tools to improve disease surveillance, preparedness and response to public health emergencies. A suite of exploratory data analysis methods combining time series analysis, summary statistics, temporal visualisations, geographic information system (GIS) mapping, trend analysis and statistical tests were used to derive patterns and trends from the data. An in-depth analysis of zoonotic disease outbreaks by geography and time was explored. The analysis also focused on whether these outbreaks were viral haemorrhagic related or had other characteristics. Results reveal that between 2001 and 2022, a total of 2234 public health events have been recorded in the WHO African Region of which 1886 events (84.4%) were substantiated. The paper confirms an average of 102 public health events reported yearly during the last 22 years time frame. The large majority (92%) of the substantiated events were infectious diseases (n=1730), 30% (n=566) are zoonoses and 5% (n=95) are humanitarian crises such as disaster events and conflicts. The number of zoonotic disease outbreaks has significantly increased (by 87%) between the past two decades, from 2003 to 2012 period (M=18.6, SD=4.8) and 2013-2022 period (M=34.7, SD=14); t(18) = 3.4, p=0.0032. This analysis shows growing challenges faced in the Africa region every year. One-health approach and its coordination across multiple sectors, disciplines and communities is critical to achieve the objectives.