A Transcriptomic Classifier Model Identifies High-Risk Endotypes in a Prospective Study of Sepsis in Uganda.

OBJECTIVES: In high-income countries (HICs), sepsis endotypes defined by distinct pathobiological mechanisms, mortality risks, and responses to corticosteroid treatment have been identified using blood transcriptomics. The generalizability of these endotypes to low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), where the global sepsis burden is concentrated, is unknown. We sought to determine the prevalence, prognostic relevance, and immunopathological features of HIC-derived transcriptomic sepsis endotypes in sub-Saharan Africa. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Public referral hospital in Uganda. PATIENTS: Adults ( n = 128) hospitalized with suspected sepsis. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Using whole-blood RNA sequencing data, we applied 19-gene and 7-gene classifiers derived and validated in HICs (SepstratifieR) to assign patients to one of three sepsis response signatures (SRS). The 19-gene classifier assigned 30 (23.4%), 92 (71.9%), and 6 (4.7%) patients to SRS-1, SRS-2, and SRS-3, respectively, the latter of which is designed to capture individuals transcriptionally closest to health. SRS-1 was defined biologically by proinflammatory innate immune activation and suppressed natural killer-cell, T-cell, and B-cell immunity, whereas SRS-2 was characterized by dampened innate immune activation, preserved lymphocyte immunity, and suppressed transcriptional responses to corticosteroids. Patients assigned to SRS-1 were predominantly (80.0% [24/30]) persons living with HIV with advanced immunosuppression and frequent tuberculosis. Mortality at 30-days differed significantly by endotype and was highest (48.1%) in SRS-1. Agreement between 19-gene and 7-gene SRS assignments was poor (Cohen's kappa 0.11). Patient stratification was suboptimal using the 7-gene classifier with 15.1% (8/53) of individuals assigned to SRS-3 deceased at 30-days. CONCLUSIONS: Sepsis endotypes derived in HICs share biological and clinical features with those identified in sub-Saharan Africa, with major differences in host-pathogen profiles. Our findings highlight the importance of context-specific sepsis endotyping, the generalizability of conserved biological signatures of critical illness across disparate settings, and opportunities to develop more pathobiologically informed sepsis treatment strategies in LMICs.

Multidimensional analysis of the host response reveals prognostic and pathogen-driven immune subtypes among adults with sepsis in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: The global burden of sepsis is concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, where severe infections disproportionately affect young, HIV-infected adults and high-burden pathogens are unique. In this context, poor understanding of sepsis immunopathology represents a crucial barrier to development of locally-effective treatment strategies. We sought to determine inter-individual immunologic heterogeneity among adults hospitalized with sepsis in a sub-Saharan African setting, and characterize associations between immune subtypes, infecting pathogens, and clinical outcomes. METHODS: Among a prospective observational cohort of 288 adults hospitalized with suspected sepsis in Uganda, we applied machine learning methods to 14 soluble host immune mediators, reflective of key domains of sepsis immunopathology (innate and adaptive immune activation, endothelial dysfunction, fibrinolysis), to identify immune subtypes in randomly-split discovery (N = 201) and internal validation (N = 87) sub-cohorts. In parallel, we applied similar methods to whole-blood RNA-sequencing data from a consecutive subset of patients (N = 128) to identify transcriptional subtypes, which we characterized using biological pathway and immune cell-type deconvolution analyses. RESULTS: Unsupervised clustering consistently identified two immune subtypes defined by differential activation of pro-inflammatory innate and adaptive immune pathways, with transcriptional evidence of concomitant CD56(-)/CD16( +) NK-cell expansion, T-cell exhaustion, and oxidative-stress and hypoxia-induced metabolic and cell-cycle reprogramming in the hyperinflammatory subtype. Immune subtypes defined by greater pro-inflammatory immune activation, T-cell exhaustion, and metabolic reprogramming were consistently associated with a high-prevalence of severe and often disseminated HIV-associated tuberculosis, as well as more extensive organ dysfunction, worse functional outcomes, and higher 30-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight unique host- and pathogen-driven features of sepsis immunopathology in sub-Saharan Africa, including the importance of severe HIV-associated tuberculosis, and reinforce the need to develop more biologically-informed treatment strategies in the region, particularly those incorporating immunomodulation.

Precision Surveillance for Viral Respiratory Pathogens: Virome Capture Sequencing for the Detection and Genomic Characterization of Severe Acute Respiratory Infection in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Precision public health is a novel set of methods to target disease prevention and mitigation interventions to high-risk subpopulations. We applied a precision public health strategy to syndromic surveillance for severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in Uganda by combining spatiotemporal analytics with genomic sequencing to detect and characterize viral respiratory pathogens with epidemic potential. METHODS: Using a national surveillance network we identified patients with unexplained, influenza-negative SARI from 2010 to 2015. Spatiotemporal analyses were performed retrospectively to identify clusters of unexplained SARI. Within clusters, respiratory viruses were detected and characterized in naso- and oropharyngeal swab samples using a novel oligonucleotide probe capture (VirCapSeq-VERT) and high-throughput sequencing platform. Linkage to conventional epidemiologic strategies further characterized transmission dynamics of identified pathogens. RESULTS: Among 2901 unexplained SARI cases, 9 clusters were detected, accounting for 301 (10.4%) cases. Clusters were more likely to occur in urban areas and during biannual rainy seasons. Within detected clusters, we identified an unrecognized outbreak of measles-associated SARI; sequence analysis implicated cocirculation of endemic genotype B3 and genotype D4 likely imported from England. We also detected a likely nosocomial SARI cluster associated with a novel picobirnavirus most closely related to swine and dromedary viruses. CONCLUSIONS: Using a precision approach to public health surveillance, we detected and characterized the genomics of vaccine-preventable and zoonotic respiratory viruses associated with clusters of severe respiratory infections in Uganda. Future studies are needed to assess the feasibility, scalability, and impact of applying similar approaches during real-time public health surveillance in low-income settings.

HETEROGENEOUS EXPANSION OF POLYMORPHONUCLEAR MYELOID-DERIVED SUPPRESSOR CELLS DISTINGUISHES HIGH-RISK SEPSIS IMMUNOPHENOTYPES IN UGANDA.

ABSTRACT: Background: Understanding of immune cell phenotypes associated with inflammatory and immunosuppressive host responses in sepsis is imprecise, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, where the global sepsis burden is concentrated. In these settings, elucidation of clinically relevant immunophenotypes is necessary to determine the relevance of emerging therapeutics and refine mechanistic investigations of sepsis immunopathology. Methods: In a prospective cohort of adults hospitalized with suspected sepsis in Uganda (N = 43; median age 46 years [IQR 36-59], 24 [55.8%] living with HIV, 16 [37.2%] deceased at 60 days), we combined high-dimensional flow cytometry with unsupervised machine learning and manual gating to define peripheral immunophenotypes associated with increased risk of 60-day mortality. Results: Patients who died showed heterogeneous expansion of polymorphonuclear myeloid-derived suppressor cells, with increased and decreased abundance of CD16 - PD-L1 dim and CD16 bright PD-L1 bright subsets, respectively, significantly associated with mortality. While differences between CD16 - PD-L1 dim cell abundance and mortality risk appeared consistent throughout the course of illness, those for the CD16 bright PD-L1 bright subset were more pronounced early after illness onset. Independent of HIV co-infection, depletion of CD4 + T cells, dendritic cells, and CD56 - CD16 bright NK cells were significantly associated with mortality risk, as was expansion of immature, CD56 + CD16 - CD11c + NK cells. Abundance of T cells expressing inhibitory checkpoint proteins (PD-1, CTLA-4, LAG-3) was similar between patients who died versus those who survived. Conclusions: This is the first study to define high-risk immunophenotypes among adults with sepsis in sub-Saharan Africa, an immunologically distinct region where biologically informed treatment strategies are needed. More broadly, our findings highlight the clinical importance and complexity of myeloid derived suppressor cell expansion during sepsis and support emerging data that suggest a host-protective role for PD-L1 myeloid checkpoints in acute critical illness.

COVID-19 immune signatures in Uganda persist in HIV co-infection and diverge by pandemic phase.

Little is known about the pathobiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection in sub-Saharan Africa, where severe COVID-19 fatality rates are among the highest in the world and the immunological landscape is unique. In a prospective cohort study of 306 adults encompassing the entire clinical spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Uganda, we profile the peripheral blood proteome and transcriptome to characterize the immunopathology of COVID-19 across multiple phases of the pandemic. Beyond the prognostic importance of myeloid cell-driven immune activation and lymphopenia, we show that multifaceted impairment of host protein synthesis and redox imbalance define core biological signatures of severe COVID-19, with central roles for IL-7, IL-15, and lymphotoxin-α in COVID-19 respiratory failure. While prognostic signatures are generally consistent in SARS-CoV-2/HIV-coinfection, type I interferon responses uniquely scale with COVID-19 severity in persons living with HIV. Throughout the pandemic, COVID-19 severity peaked during phases dominated by A.23/A.23.1 and Delta B.1.617.2/AY variants. Independent of clinical severity, Delta phase COVID-19 is distinguished by exaggerated pro-inflammatory myeloid cell and inflammasome activation, NK and CD8+ T cell depletion, and impaired host protein synthesis. Combining these analyses with a contemporary Ugandan cohort of adults hospitalized with influenza and other severe acute respiratory infections, we show that activation of epidermal and platelet-derived growth factor pathways are distinct features of COVID-19, deepening translational understanding of mechanisms potentially underlying SARS-CoV-2-associated pulmonary fibrosis. Collectively, our findings provide biological rationale for use of broad and targeted immunotherapies for severe COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa, illustrate the relevance of local viral and host factors to SARS-CoV-2 immunopathology, and highlight underemphasized yet therapeutically exploitable immune pathways driving COVID-19 severity.

Development of a Novel Clinicomolecular Risk Index to Enhance Mortality Prediction and Immunological Stratification of Adults Hospitalized with Sepsis in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Pilot Study from Uganda.

The global burden of sepsis is concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where epidemic HIV and unique pathogen diversity challenge the effective management of severe infections. In this context, patient stratification based on biomarkers of a dysregulated host response may identify subgroups more likely to respond to targeted immunomodulatory therapeutics. In a prospective cohort of adults hospitalized with suspected sepsis in Uganda, we applied machine learning methods to develop a prediction model for 30-day mortality that integrates physiology-based risk scores with soluble biomarkers reflective of key domains of sepsis immunopathology. After model evaluation and internal validation, whole-blood RNA sequencing data were analyzed to compare biological pathway enrichment and inferred immune cell profiles between patients assigned differential model-based risks of mortality. Of 260 eligible adults (median age, 32 years; interquartile range, 26-43 years; 59.2% female, 53.9% living with HIV), 62 (23.8%) died by 30 days after hospital discharge. Among 14 biomarkers, soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (sTNFR1) and angiopoietin 2 (Ang-2) demonstrated the greatest importance for mortality prediction in machine learning models. A clinicomolecular model integrating sTNFR1 and Ang-2 with the Universal Vital Assessment (UVA) risk score optimized 30-day mortality prediction across multiple performance metrics. Patients assigned to the high-risk, UVA-based clinicomolecular subgroup exhibited a transcriptional profile defined by proinflammatory innate immune and necroptotic pathway activation, T-cell exhaustion, and expansion of key immune cell subsets including regulatory and gamma-delta T cells. Clinicomolecular stratification of adults with suspected sepsis in Uganda enhanced 30-day mortality prediction and identified a high-risk subgroup with a therapeutically targetable immunological profile. Further studies are needed to advance pathobiologically informed sepsis management in SSA.

Phylogenomic analysis uncovers a 9-year variation of Uganda influenza type-A strains from the WHO-recommended vaccines and other Africa strains.

Genetic characterisation of circulating influenza viruses directs annual vaccine strain selection and mitigation of infection spread. We used next-generation sequencing to locally generate whole genomes from 116 A(H1N1)pdm09 and 118 A(H3N2) positive patient swabs collected across Uganda between 2010 and 2018. We recovered sequences from 92% (215/234) of the swabs, 90% (193/215) of which were whole genomes. The newly-generated sequences were genetically and phylogenetically compared to the WHO-recommended vaccines and other Africa strains sampled since 1994. Uganda strain hemagglutinin (n = 206), neuraminidase (n = 207), and matrix protein (MP, n = 213) sequences had 95.23-99.65%, 95.31-99.79%, and 95.46-100% amino acid similarity to the 2010-2020 season vaccines, respectively, with several mutated hemagglutinin antigenic, receptor binding, and N-linked glycosylation sites. Uganda influenza type-A virus strains sequenced before 2016 clustered uniquely while later strains mixed with other Africa and global strains. We are the first to report novel A(H1N1)pdm09 subclades 6B.1A.3, 6B.1A.5(a,b), and 6B.1A.6 (± T120A) that circulated in Eastern, Western, and Southern Africa in 2017-2019. Africa forms part of the global influenza ecology with high viral genetic diversity, progressive antigenic drift, and local transmissions. For a continent with inadequate health resources and where social distancing is unsustainable, vaccination is the best option. Hence, African stakeholders should prioritise routine genome sequencing and analysis to direct vaccine selection and virus control.

Integration of SARS-CoV-2 testing and genomic sequencing into influenza sentinel surveillance in Uganda, January to December 2022.

IMPORTANCE: Respiratory pathogens cause high rates of morbidity and mortality globally and have high pandemic potential. During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, influenza surveillance was significantly interrupted because of resources being diverted to SARS-CoV-2 testing and sequencing. Based on recommendations from the World Health Organization, the Uganda Virus Research Institute, National Influenza Center laboratory integrated SARS-CoV-2 testing and genomic sequencing into the influenza surveillance program. We describe the results of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 testing of samples collected from 16 sentinel surveillance sites located throughout Uganda as well as SARS-CoV-2 testing and sequencing in other health centers. The surveillance system showed that both SARS-CoV-2 and influenza can be monitored in communities at the national level. The integration of SARS-CoV-2 detection and genomic surveillance into the influenza surveillance program will help facilitate the timely release of SARS-CoV-2 information for COVID-19 pandemic mitigation and provide important information regarding the persistent threat of influenza.

Brief Report: Detection of Urine Lipoarabinomannan Is Associated With Proinflammatory Innate Immune Activation, Impaired Host Defense, and Organ Dysfunction in Adults With Severe HIV-Associated Tuberculosis in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: The immunopathology of disseminated HIV-associated tuberculosis (HIV/TB), a leading cause of critical illness and death among persons living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, is incompletely understood. Reflective of hematogenously disseminated TB, detection of lipoarabinomannan (LAM) in urine is associated with greater bacillary burden and poor outcomes in adults with HIV/TB. METHODS: We determined the relationship between detection of urine TB-LAM, organ dysfunction, and host immune responses in a prospective cohort of adults hospitalized with severe HIV/TB in Uganda. Generalized additive models were used to analyze the association between urine TB-LAM grade and concentrations of 14 soluble immune mediators. Whole-blood RNA-sequencing data were used to compare transcriptional profiles between patients with high- vs. low-grade TB-LAM results. RESULTS: Among 157 hospitalized persons living with HIV, 40 (25.5%) had positive urine TB-LAM testing. Higher TB-LAM grade was associated with more severe physiologic derangement, organ dysfunction, and shock. Adjusted generalized additive models showed that higher TB-LAM grade was significantly associated with higher concentrations of mediators reflecting proinflammatory innate and T-cell activation and chemotaxis (IL-8, MIF, MIP-1ß/CCL4, and sIL-2Ra/sCD25). Transcriptionally, patients with higher TB-LAM grades demonstrated multifaceted impairment of antibacterial defense including reduced expression of genes encoding cytotoxic and autophagy-related proteins and impaired cross-talk between innate and cell-mediated immune effectors. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings add to emerging data suggesting pathobiological relationships between LAM, TB dissemination, innate cell activation, and evasion of host immunity in severe HIV/TB. Further translational studies are needed to elucidate the role for immunomodulatory therapies, in addition to optimized anti-TB treatment, in this often critically ill population.

HIV infection drives pro-inflammatory immunothrombotic pathway activation and organ dysfunction among adults with sepsis in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: The global burden of sepsis is concentrated in high HIV-burden settings in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Despite this, little is known about the immunopathology of sepsis in persons with HIV (PWH) in the region. We sought to determine the influence of HIV on host immune responses and organ dysfunction among adults hospitalized with suspected sepsis in Uganda. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. METHODS: We compared organ dysfunction and 30-day outcome profiles of PWH and those without HIV. We quantified 14 soluble immune mediators, reflective of key domains of sepsis immunopathology, and performed whole-blood RNA-sequencing on samples from a subset of patients. We used propensity score methods to match PWH and those without HIV by demographics, illness duration, and clinical severity, and compared immune mediator concentrations and gene expression profiles across propensity score-matched groups. RESULTS: Among 299 patients, 157 (52.5%) were PWH (clinical stage 3 or 4 in 80.3%, 67.7% with known HIV on antiretroviral therapy). PWH presented with more severe physiologic derangement and shock, and had higher 30-day mortality (34.5% vs. 10.2%; P  < 0.001). Across propensity score-matched groups, PWH exhibited greater pro-inflammatory immune activation, including upregulation of interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, IL-15, IL-17 and HMGB1 signaling, with concomitant T-cell exhaustion, prothrombotic pathway activation, and angiopoeitin-2-related endothelial dysfunction. CONCLUSIONS: Sepsis-related organ dysfunction and mortality in Uganda disproportionately affect PWH, who demonstrate exaggerated activation of multiple immunothrombotic and metabolic pathways implicated in sepsis pathogenesis. Further investigations are needed to refine understanding of sepsis immunopathology in PWH, particularly mechanisms amenable to therapeutic manipulation.

Stratifying Sepsis in Uganda Using Rapid Pathogen Diagnostics and Clinical Data: A Prospective Cohort Study.

The global burden of sepsis is concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, where extensive pathogen diversity and limited laboratory capacity challenge targeted antimicrobial management of life-threatening infections. In this context, established and emerging rapid pathogen diagnostics may stratify sepsis patients into subgroups with prognostic and therapeutic relevance. In a prospective cohort of adults (age ≥18 years) hospitalized with suspected sepsis in Uganda, we stratified patients using rapid diagnostics for HIV, tuberculosis (TB), malaria, and influenza, and compared clinical characteristics and 30-day outcomes across these pathogen-driven subgroups. From April 2017 to August 2019, 301 adults were enrolled (median age, 32 years [interquartile range, 26-42 years]; female, n = 178 [59%]). A total of 157 patients (53%) were HIV infected. Sixty-one patients (20%) tested positive for malaria, 52 (17%), for TB (including 49 of 157 [31%] HIV-infected patients), and 17 (6%), for influenza. Co-infection was identified in 33 (11%) patients. The frequency of multi-organ failure, including shock and acute respiratory failure, was greatest among patients with HIV-associated TB. Mortality at 30 days was 19% among patients with malaria, 40% among patients with HIV-associated TB, 32% among HIV-infected patients without microbiological evidence of TB, 6% among patients with influenza, and 11% among patients without a pathogen identified. Despite improvements in anti-retroviral delivery, the burden of sepsis in Uganda remains concentrated among young, HIV-infected adults, with a high incidence of severe HIV-associated TB. In parallel with improvements in acute-care capacity, use of rapid pathogen diagnostics may enhance triage and antimicrobial management during emergency care for sepsis in sub-Saharan Africa, and could be used to enrich study populations when trialing pathogen-specific treatment strategies in the region.

Severe COVID-19 in Uganda across Two Epidemic Phases: A Prospective Cohort Study.

Among a prospective cohort of children and adults admitted to a national COVID-19 treatment unit in Uganda from March to December 2020, we characterized the epidemiology of and risk factors for severe illness. Across two epidemic phases differentiated by varying levels of community transmission, the proportion of patients admitted with WHO-defined severe COVID-19 ranged from 5% (7/146; 95% CI: 2-10) to 33% (41/124; 95% CI: 25-42); 21% (26/124; 95% CI: 14-29%) of patients admitted during the peak phase received oxygen therapy. Severe COVID-19 was associated with older age, male sex, and longer duration of illness before admission. Coinfection with HIV was not associated with illness severity; malaria or tuberculosis coinfection was rare. No patients died during admission. Despite low mortality, hospital incidence of severe COVID-19 during the first epidemic peak in Uganda was substantial. Improvements in vaccine deployment and acute care capacity, including oxygen delivery, are urgently needed to prevent and manage severe COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa.

Evaluation of rodent bait containing imidacloprid for the control of fleas on commensal rodents in a plague-endemic region of northwest Uganda.

In recent decades, the majority of human plague cases (caused by Yersinia pestis) have been reported from Africa. In an effort to reduce the risk of the disease in this area, we evaluated the efficacy of a host-targeted rodent bait containing the insecticide imidacloprid for controlling fleas on house-dwelling commensal rodents in a plague-endemic region of northwestern Uganda. Results demonstrated that the use of a palatable, rodent-targeted, wax-based bait cube was effective at reducing the prevalence of fleas on commensal rodents and flea burdens on these animals at day 7 postbait exposure, but lacked significant residual activity, allowing flea populations to rebound in the absence of additional bait applications. Our results indicate the use of a palatable host-targeted bait block containing imidacloprid was an effective technique for quickly reducing flea numbers on rodents in northwest Uganda and, thus, could be useful for lowering the potential risk of human flea bite exposures during plague outbreaks if applied continuously during the period of risk.

Influenza-associated pneumonia hospitalizations in Uganda, 2013-2016.

BACKGROUND: Influenza is an important contributor to acute respiratory illness, including pneumonia, and results in substantial morbidity and mortality globally. Understanding the local burden of influenza-associated severe disease can inform decisions on allocation of resources toward influenza control programs. Currently, there is no national influenza vaccination program in Uganda. METHODS: In this study, we used data on pneumonia hospitalizations that were collected and reported through the Health Management Information System (HMIS) of the Ministry of Health, Uganda, and the laboratory-confirmed influenza positivity data from severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) surveillance in three districts (Wakiso, Mbarara, and Tororo) to estimate the age-specific incidence of influenza-associated pneumonia hospitalizations from January 2013 through December 2016. RESULTS: The overall estimated mean annual rate of pneumonia hospitalizations in the three districts was 371 (95% confidence interval [CI] 323-434) per 100,000 persons, and was highest among children aged <5 years (1,524 [95% CI 1,286-1,849]) compared to persons aged ≥5 years (123 [95% CI 105-144]) per 100,000 persons. The estimated mean annual rate of influenza-associated pneumonia hospitalization was 34 (95% CI 23-48) per 100,000 persons (116 [95% CI 78-165] and 16 [95% CI 6-28] per 100,000 persons among children aged <5 years and those ≥5 years, respectively). Among children aged <5 years, the rate of hospitalized influenza-associated pneumonia was highest among those who were <2 years old (178 [95% CI 109-265] per 100,000 persons). Over the period of analysis, the estimated mean annual number of hospitalized influenza-associated pneumonia cases in the three districts ranged between 672 and 1,436, of which over 70% represent children aged <5 years. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of influenza-associated pneumonia hospitalizations was substantial in Uganda, and was highest among young children aged <5 years. Influenza vaccination may be considered, especially for very young children.

Transmission dynamics of influenza in two major cities of Uganda.

In this paper, we report the epidemic characteristics of the three co-circulating influenza viruses (i.e., A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B) in two tropical African cities-Kampala and Entebbe, Uganda-over an eight-year period (2008-2015). Using wavelet methods, we show that influenza epidemics recurred annually during the study period. In most months, two or more influenza viruses co-circulated at the same time. However, the epidemic timing differed by influenza (sub)type. Influenza A/H3N2 caused epidemics approximately every 2 years in both cities and tended to alternate with A/H1N1 or B. Influenza A/H1N1 and B produced smaller but more frequent epidemics and biennial epidemics of these two viruses tended to be synchronous. In addition, epidemics of A/H3N2 were more synchronized in the two cities (located ca.37 km apart) than that of A/H1N1 or influenza B.

Dynamics of influenza in tropical Africa: Temperature, humidity, and co-circulating (sub)types.

BACKGROUND: The association of influenza with meteorological variables in tropical climates remains controversial. Here, we investigate the impact of weather conditions on influenza in the tropics and factors that may contribute to this uncertainty. METHODS: We computed the monthly viral positive rate for each of the 3 circulating influenza (sub)types (ie, A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B) among patients presenting with influenza-like illness (ILI) or severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in 2 Ugandan cities (Entebbe and Kampala). Using this measure as a proxy for influenza activity, we applied regression models to examine the impact of temperature, relative humidity, absolute humidity, and precipitation, as well as interactions among the 3 influenza viruses on the epidemic dynamics of each influenza (sub)type. A full analysis including all 4 weather variables was done for Entebbe during 2007-2015, and a partial analysis including only temperature and precipitation was done for both cities during 2008-2014. RESULTS: For Entebbe, the associations with weather variables differed by influenza (sub)type; with adjustment for viral interactions, the models showed that precipitation and temperature were negatively correlated with A/H1N1 activity, but not for A/H3N2 or B. A mutually negative association between A/H3N2 and B activity was identified in both Entebbe and Kampala. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that key interactions exist among influenza (sub)types at the population level in the tropics and that such interactions can modify the association of influenza activity with weather variables. Studies of the relationship between influenza and weather conditions should therefore determine and account for co-circulating influenza (sub)types.

Emergence, Epidemiology, and Transmission Dynamics of 2009 Pandemic A/H1N1 Influenza in Kampala, Uganda, 2009-2015.

In sub-Saharan Africa, little is known about the epidemiology of pandemic-prone influenza viruses in urban settings. Using data from a prospective sentinel surveillance network, we characterized the emergence, epidemiology, and transmission dynamics of 2009 pandemic A/H1N1 influenza (H1N1pdm09) in Kampala, Uganda. After virus introduction via international air travel from England in June 2009, we estimated the basic reproductive number in Kampala to be 1.06-1.13, corresponding to attack rates of 12-22%. We subsequently identified 613 cases of influenza in Kampala from 2009 to 2015, of which 191 (31.2%) were infected with H1N1pdm09. Patients infected with H1N1pdm09 were more likely to be older adult (ages 35-64) males with illness onset during rainy season months. Urban settings in sub-Saharan Africa are vulnerable to importation and intense transmission of pandemic-prone influenza viruses. Enhanced surveillance and influenza pandemic preparedness in these settings is needed.

Epidemiologic and Spatiotemporal Characterization of Influenza and Severe Acute Respiratory Infection in Uganda, 2010-2015.

RATIONALE: Little is known about the epidemiology of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) or influenza in sub-Saharan Africa. Characterization of influenza transmission dynamics and risk factors for severe disease and mortality is critical to inform prevention and mitigation strategies. OBJECTIVES: To characterize the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of influenza and risk factors for influenza-associated severe respiratory infection in Uganda. METHODS: Clinicians at 12 sentinel surveillance sites prospectively collected clinical data and upper respiratory tract samples from consecutive patients who met criteria for SARI and influenza-like illness (ILI). Samples were tested for influenza A and B viruses using real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Spatial and spatiotemporal cluster modeling was performed to identify loci of increased influenza transmission. Morbidity and mortality were assessed through chart review in a defined subset of patients. Univariable and multivariable analyses were used to identify risk factors for severe respiratory infection, prolonged hospitalization, and in-hospital mortality. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: From October 2010 to June 2015, 9,978 patients met case definitions for SARI and ILI and had samples tested for influenza A and B. Of the 9,978 patient samples tested, 1,113 (11.2%) were positive for influenza. Among 6,057 patients with ILI, 778 samples (12.8%) were positive, and among 3,921 patients with SARI, 335 samples (8.5%) were positive. Significant clustering of influenza cases was observed in urban and periurban areas and during rainy seasons. Among 1,405 cases of SARI with available outcome data, in-hospital mortality was 1.6%. Infection with the 2009 pandemic A/H1N1 subtype and prolonged time to presentation were independently associated with SARI among influenza cases. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza is associated with a substantial proportion of acute respiratory infection in Uganda. As influenza vaccination programs are developed in East Africa, timing campaigns to confer protection during rainy seasons should be considered, particularly among high-risk urban populations.

Assessing human risk of exposure to plague bacteria in northwestern Uganda based on remotely sensed predictors.

Plague, a life-threatening flea-borne zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, has most commonly been reported from eastern Africa and Madagascar in recent decades. In these regions and elsewhere, prevention and control efforts are typically targeted at fine spatial scales, yet risk maps for the disease are often presented at coarse spatial resolutions that are of limited value in allocating scarce prevention and control resources. In our study, we sought to identify sub-village level remotely sensed correlates of elevated risk of human exposure to plague bacteria and to project the model across the plague-endemic West Nile region of Uganda and into neighboring regions of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Our model yielded an overall accuracy of 81%, with sensitivities and specificities of 89% and 71%, respectively. Risk was higher above 1,300 meters than below, and the remotely sensed covariates that were included in the model implied that localities that are wetter, with less vegetative growth and more bare soil during the dry month of January (when agricultural plots are typically fallow) pose an increased risk of plague case occurrence. Our results suggest that environmental and landscape features play a large part in classifying an area as ecologically conducive to plague activity. However, it is clear that future studies aimed at identifying behavioral and fine-scale ecological risk factors in the West Nile region are required to fully assess the risk of human exposure to Y. pestis.