Development of non-communicable disease risk factors in Finland: projections up to 2040.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases are a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. They share the same behavioural risk factors (smoking, sedentary behaviour, alcohol consumption and an unhealthy diet), all of which are modifiable risk factors, and biological consequences (hypertension, elevated total cholesterol, obesity and diabetes). METHODS: Using data from a series of cross-sectional health examination surveys conducted among the adult population in Finland from 1997 to 2017, a projection of risk factor development (smoking, leisure time sedentary behaviour, hypertension, elevated total cholesterol, overweight and obesity, and diabetes) up to the year 2040 was made. The projections were estimated using a multiple imputation method. RESULTS: Smoking prevalence is estimated to continue to decline up to 2040, similar to hypertension and elevated total cholesterol. By contrast, obesity and diabetes will develop unfavourably, with an increase in prevalence. The increase in obesity is mainly due to polarisation - that is, normal-weight people remain of a normal weight, but overweight people tend to gain more weight and become obese. The observed and estimated changes for leisure time sedentary lifestyle were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Projections of risk factors for non-communicable diseases are needed to guide public health policies and programmes, decision-making and the allocation of health care resources for prevention and care. In Finland, favourable developments have been seen in many of the risk factors, but obesity and diabetes show unfavourable development. There is a need to continue regular, systematic monitoring of the development of risk factors through health examination surveys and to set national goals and programmes to tackle the existing problems.

Bet v 1 triggers antiviral-type immune signalling in birch-pollen-allergic individuals.

BACKGROUND: In allergic patients, clinical symptoms caused by pollen remind of symptoms triggered by viral respiratory infections, which are also the main cause of asthmatic exacerbations. In patients sensitized to birch pollen, Bet v 1 is the major symptom-causing allergen. Immune mechanisms driving Bet v 1-related responses of human blood cells have not been fully characterized. OBJECTIVE: To characterize the immune response to Bet v 1 in peripheral blood in patients allergic to birch pollen. METHODS: The peripheral blood mononuclear cells of birch-allergic (n = 24) and non-allergic (n = 47) adolescents were stimulated ex-vivo followed by transcriptomic profiling. Systems-biology approaches were employed to decipher disease-relevant gene networks and deconvolution of associated cell populations. RESULTS: Solely in birch-allergic patients, co-expression analysis revealed activation of networks of innate immunity and antiviral signalling as the immediate response to Bet v 1 stimulation. Toll-like receptors and signal transducer transcription were the main drivers of gene expression patterns. Macrophages and dendritic cells were the main cell subsets responding to Bet v 1. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: In birch-pollen-allergic patients, the activated innate immune networks seem to be, in part, the same as those activated during viral infections. This tendency of the immune system to read pollens as viruses may provide new insight to allergy prevention and treatment.

Using multiple imputation and intervention-based scenarios to project the mobility of older adults.

BACKGROUND: Projections of the development of mobility limitations of older adults are needed for evidence-based policy making. The aim of this study was to generate projections of mobility limitations among older people in the United States, England, and Finland. METHODS: We applied multiple imputation modelling with bootstrapping to generate projections of stair climbing and walking limitations until 2026. A physical activity intervention producing a beneficial effect on self-reported activities of daily living measures was identified in a comprehensive literature search and incorporated in the scenarios used in the projections. We utilised the harmonised longitudinal survey data from the Ageing Trajectories of Health - Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) project (N = 24,982). RESULTS: Based on the scenarios from 2012 to 2026, the prevalence of walking limitations will decrease from 9.4 to 6.4%. A physical activity intervention would decrease the prevalence of stair climbing limitations compared with no intervention from 28.9 to 18.9% between 2012 and 2026. CONCLUSIONS: A physical activity intervention implemented on older population seems to have a positive effect on maintaining mobility in the future. Our method provides an interesting option for generating projections by incorporating intervention-based scenarios.

Experiences from the harmonization of Finnish national population-based health survey data.

Aims: There are several advantages to pooling survey data from individual studies over time or across different countries. Our aim is to share our experiences on harmonizing data from 13 Finnish health examination surveys covering the years 1972-2017 and to describe the challenges related to harmonizing different variable types using two questionnaire variables - blood pressure measurement and total cholesterol assessment - as examples. Methods: Data from Finnish national population-based health surveys were harmonized as part of the research project 'Projections of the Burden of Disease and Disability in Finland - Health Policy Prospects', including variables from questionnaires, objective health measurements and results from the laboratory analysis of biological samples. The process presented in the Maelstrom Research guidelines for data harmonization was followed with minor adjustments. Results: The harmonization of data from objective measurements and biomarkers was reasonably straightforward, but questionnaire items proved more challenging. Some questions and response options had changed during the covered time period. This concerned, for example, questionnaire items on the availability and use of medication and diet. Conclusions: The long time period - 45 years - made harmonization more complicated. The survey questions or response options had changed for some topics due to changes in society. However, common core variables for topics that were especially relevant for the project, such as lifestyle factors and certain diseases or conditions, could be harmonized with sufficient comparability. For future surveys, the use of standardized survey methods and the proper documentation of data collection are recommended to facilitate harmonization.

Immune-microbiota interaction in Finnish and Russian Karelia young people with high and low allergy prevalence.

BACKGROUND: After the Second World War, the population living in the Karelian region was strictly divided by the "iron curtain" between Finland and Russia. This resulted in different lifestyle, standard of living, and exposure to the environment. Allergic manifestations and sensitization to common allergens have been much more common on the Finnish compared to the Russian side. OBJECTIVE: The remarkable allergy disparity in the Finnish and Russian Karelia calls for immunological explanations. METHODS: Young people, aged 15-20 years, in the Finnish (n = 69) and Russian (n = 75) Karelia were studied. The impact of genetic variation on the phenotype was studied by a genome-wide association analysis. Differences in gene expression (transcriptome) were explored from the blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) and related to skin and nasal epithelium microbiota and sensitization. RESULTS: The genotype differences between the Finnish and Russian populations did not explain the allergy gap. The network of gene expression and skin and nasal microbiota was richer and more diverse in the Russian subjects. When the function of 261 differentially expressed genes was explored, innate immunity pathways were suppressed among Russians compared to Finns. Differences in the gene expression paralleled the microbiota disparity. High Acinetobacter abundance in Russians correlated with suppression of innate immune response. High-total IgE was associated with enhanced anti-viral response in the Finnish but not in the Russian subjects. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Young populations living in the Finnish and Russian Karelia show marked differences in genome-wide gene expression and host contrasting skin and nasal epithelium microbiota. The rich gene-microbe network in Russians seems to result in a better-balanced innate immunity and associates with low allergy prevalence.

Public health monitoring of hypertension, diabetes and elevated cholesterol: comparison of different data sources.

Background: Three data sources are generally used in monitoring health on the population level. Health interview surveys (HISs) are based on participants' self-report. Health examination surveys (HESs) yield more objective data, and also persons who are unaware of their elevated risks can be detected. Medical records (MRs) and other administrative registers also provide objective data, but their availability, coverage and quality vary between countries. We summarized studies comparing self-reported data with (i) measured data from HESs or (ii) MRs. We aimed to describe differences in feasibility and comparability of different data sources for monitoring (i) elevated blood pressure or hypertension (ii) elevated blood glucose or diabetes and (iii) elevated total cholesterol. Methods: We conducted a literature search to identify studies, which validated self-reported measures against objective measures. We found 30 studies published since the year 2000 fulfilling our inclusion criteria (targeted to adults and comparing prevalence among the same persons). Results: Hypertension and elevated total cholesterol were prone to be under-estimated in HISs. The under-estimate was more pronounced, when the HIS data were compared with HES data, and lower when compared with MRs. For diabetes, the HISs and the objective methods resulted in fairly similar prevalence rates. Conclusion: The three data sources measure different manifestations of the risk factors and cannot be expected to yield similar prevalence rates. Using HIS data only may lead to under-estimation of elevated risk factor levels or disease prevalence. Whenever possible, information from the three data sources should be evaluated and combined.

From margarine to butter: predictors of changing bread spread in an 11-year population follow-up.

OBJECTIVE: Finland is known for a sharp decrease in the intake of saturated fat and cardiovascular mortality. Since 2000, however, the consumption of butter-containing spreads - an important source of saturated fats - has increased. We examined social and health-related predictors of the increase among Finnish men and women. DESIGN: An 11-year population follow-up. SETTING: A representative random sample of adult Finns, invited to a health survey in 2000. SUBJECTS: Altogether 5414 persons aged 30-64 years at baseline in 2000 were re-invited in 2011. Of men 1529 (59 %) and of women 1853 (66 %) answered the questions on bread spreads at both time points. Respondents reported the use of bread spreads by choosing one of the following alternatives: no fat, soft margarine, butter-vegetable oil mixture and butter, which were later categorized into margarine/no spread and butter/butter-vegetable oil mixture (= butter). The predictors included gender, age, marital status, education, employment status, place of residence, health behaviours, BMI and health. Multinomial regression models were fitted. RESULTS: Of the 2582 baseline margarine/no spread users, 24.6% shifted to butter. Only a few of the baseline sociodemographic or health-related determinants predicted the change. Finnish women were more likely to change to butter than men. Living with a spouse predicted the change among men. CONCLUSIONS: The change from margarine to butter between 2000 and 2011 seemed not to be a matter of compliance with official nutrition recommendations. Further longitudinal studies on social, behavioural and motivational predictors of dietary changes are needed.

Vegetable and fruit consumption, education and plasma vitamin C concentration in Russian and Finnish Karelia, 1992-2002.

OBJECTIVE: To examine (i) whether the consumption of fresh vegetables, fruit and berries is associated with plasma vitamin C concentration and (ii) educational differences in plasma vitamin C concentration in two neighbouring areas in Russia and Finland. DESIGN: Cross-sectional risk factor surveys in 1992, 1997 and 2002. Logistic regression analysis was applied to examine the associations of consumption of selected foods and education with plasma vitamin C concentration. SETTING: District of Pitkäranta in the Republic of Karelia, Russia and North Karelia, Finland. SUBJECTS: Adults aged 25-64 years: 579 men and 612 women in Pitkäranta; 974 men and 642 women in North Karelia. RESULTS: The plasma vitamin C concentration was strikingly low in Pitkäranta, Russia across the study years. During the 10 years of monitoring, the mean plasma vitamin C concentration among men ranged from 2·5 to 8·0 µmol/l in Pitkäranta, Russia and from 27·1 to 53·9 µmol/l in North Karelia, Finland. In both areas, daily consumption of fruit was most strongly associated with plasma vitamin C, while the association of fresh vegetable consumption with plasma vitamin C was less consistent. Consumption of berries was less important in explaining plasma vitamin C. In Pitkäranta, the plasma vitamin C concentration was lower among respondents in the lowest education group. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in the consumption of fresh vegetables and fruit resulted in notable differences in vitamin C status between Pitkäranta and North Karelia in spring. In comparative settings, knowledge of local food culture and validation pilots are important before conducting large population surveys.

Assessing the Cost of Nutritionally Adequate and Low-Climate Impact Diets in Finland.

Background: Dietary changes form an important component of the sustainability transition of food systems but could be hindered by the cost of sustainable diets. Objectives: This study aimed to characterize the cost of nutritionally adequate and culturally acceptable diets with low-greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) in Finland. Methods: Two optimization models were built to find diets complying with nutritional and emissions requirements. The first model minimizes diet cost and the second one deviation from current diets. Both are calibrated to Finnish sociodemographic groups using dietary intake data, household budget survey data (for prices), and life cycle assessment coefficients (for GHGE). Three scenarios are simulated: "Health only" imposes only compliance with nutritional constraints, whereas "Health and GHGE-33%" and "Health and GHGE-50%" impose, in addition, minimum reductions in GHGE. Results: Minimum cost diets have a low-carbon footprint [-65% (-73%) for females (males)] and low cost [-69% (-73%) for females (males)] when compared with current diets but lack diversity and cultural acceptability. The more culturally acceptable health-only minimum deviation diets are marginally less costly and have a lower climate impact than baseline diets across all population groups. Reducing GHGE results in a substantial decrease in the cost of the minimum deviation diets. The lower cost of the minimum deviation diets with reduced GHGE results from both intercategory and intracategory substitutions. Conclusions: Affordability is not the key obstacle to the adoption of nutritionally adequate and lower GHGE diets, but cultural acceptability is. Reducing the climate footprint of diets can generate side benefits in terms of nutrition and affordability, which confirms that dietary change should be central to the sustainability transition of the Finnish food system. However, more attention should be paid to the issues of taste, convenience, social norms, and other aspects determining the cultural acceptability of sustainable diets.

A short history from Karelia study to biodiversity and public health interventions.

Contact with natural environments enriches the human microbiome, promotes immune balance and protects against allergies and inflammatory disorders. In Finland, the allergy & asthma epidemic became slowly visible in mid 1960s. After the World War II, Karelia was split into Finnish and Soviet Union (now Russia) territories. This led to more marked environmental and lifestyle changes in the Finnish compared with Russian Karelia. The Karelia Allergy Study 2002-2022 showed that allergic conditions were much more common on the Finnish side. The Russians had richer gene-microbe network and interaction than the Finns, which associated with better balanced immune regulatory circuits and lower allergy prevalence. In the Finnish adolescents, a biodiverse natural environment around the homes associated with lower occurrence of allergies. Overall, the plausible explanation of the allergy disparity was the prominent change in environment and lifestyle in the Finnish Karelia from 1940s to 1980s. The nationwide Finnish Allergy Programme 2008-2018 implemented the biodiversity hypothesis into practice by endorsing immune tolerance, nature contacts, and allergy health with favorable results. A regional health and environment programme, Nature Step to Health 2022-2032, has been initiated in the City of Lahti, EU Green Capital 2021. The programme integrates prevention of chronic diseases (asthma, diabetes, obesity, depression), nature loss, and climate crisis in the spirit of Planetary Health. Allergic diseases exemplify inappropriate immunological responses to natural environment. Successful management of the epidemics of allergy and other non-communicable diseases may pave the way to improve human and environmental health.

Contribution of education level and dairy fat sources to serum cholesterol in Russian and Finnish Karelia: results from four cross-sectional risk factor surveys in 1992-2007.

BACKGROUND: Food habits vary by socio-economic group and geographic area. Data on socio-economic differences in food habits and in serum total cholesterol concentration from Russia are scarce. Our aim was to examine changes and educational differences in serum total cholesterol and in the consumption of major sources of saturated fat in two geographically neighbouring areas, Russian and Finnish Karelia, and to examine whether the foods associated with serum total cholesterol are different in the two areas. METHODS: Data from cross-sectional risk factor surveys from years 1992, 1997, 2002 and 2007 in the district of Pitkäranta, the Republic of Karelia, Russia (n = 2672), and North Karelia, Finland (n = 5437), were used. The analyses included two phases. 1) To examine the differences in cholesterol by education, the means and 95% confidence intervals for education groups were calculated for each study year. 2) Multivariate linear regression analysis was employed to examine the role of butter in cooking, butter on bread, fat-containing milk and cheese in explaining serum total cholesterol. In these analyses, the data for all four study years were combined. RESULTS: In Pitkäranta, serum total cholesterol fluctuated during the study period (1992-2007), whereas in North Karelia cholesterol levels declined consistently. No apparent differences in cholesterol levels by education were observed in Pitkäranta. In North Karelia, cholesterol was lower among subjects in the highest education tertile compared to the lowest education tertile in 1992 and 2002. In Pitkäranta, consumption of fat-containing milk was most strongly associated with cholesterol (ß=0.19, 95% CI 0.10, 0.28) adjusted for sex, age, education and study year. In North Karelia, using butter in cooking (ß=0.09, 95% CI 0.04, 0.15) and using butter on bread (ß=0.09, 95% CI 0.02, 0.15) had a significant positive association with cholesterol. CONCLUSIONS: In the two geographically neighbouring areas, the key foods influencing serum cholesterol levels varied considerably. Assessment and regular monitoring of food habits are essential to plan nutrition education messages that are individually tailored for the target area and time.

The Association between ADHD and Environmental Chemicals-A Scoping Review.

The role of environmental chemicals in the etiology of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) has been of interest in recent research. This scoping review aims to summarize known or possible associations between ADHD and environmental exposures to substances selected as priority chemicals of the European Human Biomonitoring Initiative (HBM4EU). Literature searches were performed in PubMed to identify relevant publications. Only meta-analyses and review articles were included, as they provide more extensive evidence compared to individual studies. The collected evidence indicated that lead (Pb), phthalates and bisphenol A (BPA) are moderately to highly associated with ADHD. Limited evidence exists for an association between ADHD and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), flame retardants, mercury (Hg), and pesticides. The evidence of association between ADHD and cadmium (Cd) and per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) based on the identified reviews was low but justified further research. The methods of the individual studies included in the reviews and meta-analyses covered in the current paper varied considerably. Making precise conclusions in terms of the strength of evidence on association between certain chemicals and ADHD was not straightforward. More research is needed for stronger evidence of associations or the lack of an association between specific chemical exposures and ADHD.

Association of socioeconomic position and childhood obesity in Finland: a registry-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To identify what dimensions of socioeconomic position (SEP) are most closely associated with childhood obesity in Finland, leveraging population-wide data among the whole child population aged 2-17 years in Finland. DESIGN: Registry-based study. SETTING: Data from several administrative registries linked on individual level covering the whole of Finland were used. Data on height and weight measurements in 2018 were obtained from the Register of Primary Health Care visits and data on sociodemographic and socioeconomic indicators (2014-2018) from Statistics Finland. PARTICIPANTS: Children aged 2-17 years with valid height and weight measurements performed at the child health clinic or school healthcare in 2018 (final n=194 423). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Obesity was defined according to WHO Growth Reference curves. Sociodemographic and socioeconomic indicators were linked on individual level for adults (both parents) who lived in the same household (42 predictors). Boosted regression model was used to analyse the contribution of SEP to obesity. RESULTS: From socioeconomic indicators, annual household income (12.6%) and mother and father's educational level (12.6% and 8.1%, respectively) had the highest relative influence on obesity risk. The relative influence of a child's sex was 7.7%. CONCLUSIONS: The parents' SEP was inversely associated with obesity among the offspring. A remarkable number of objective SEP indicators were analysed with parents' education and household income finally being the indicators most strongly associated with obesity among children. In future research, more attention should be paid to reliable and objective ways of measuring educational status and income rather than on developing new SEP indicators. Administrative registries with information on both healthcare and socioeconomic indicators can in future provide better opportunities to assess the influence of SEP on various health risks.

Disparities in Nutritional Adequacy of Diets between Different Socioeconomic Groups of Finnish Adults.

Information on dietary adequacy is needed to assess food and nutrition security in a modern society, especially in the transition towards climate-friendly food systems. In this study, differences in the nutritional adequacy of diets among Finnish adults were evaluated in population groups of different education, income and urbanisation levels. The study used data from the FinDiet 2017 Survey (n = 1655, 18-74 years). Modelled usual intakes of foods and nutrients were evaluated relative to food-based dietary guidelines issued by the National Nutrition Council of Finland (FNNC) and with respect to nutrient adequacy following the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations and FNNC. For about half of the nutrients studied, intakes were found to be adequate. Intakes of protein, fat, saturated fatty acids and salt were estimated to be high. By contrast, inadequate intakes were seen in folate and vitamins A, D, B1, B2 and C in almost all groups studied. Groups with a higher education and income, groups that lived in urban areas and, in particular, women adhered more closely to recommended food consumption and nutrient intakes than others. However, major challenges posed by the Finnish diet are common to all groups studied, and only certain dietary features evaluated in view of nutritional adequacy are associated with socioeconomic differences.

Socio-economic differences in the consumption of vegetables, fruit and berries in Russian and Finnish Karelia: 1992-2007.

BACKGROUND: Food habits and their socio-economic differences in Russia have rarely been compared to those in western countries. Our aim was to determine socio-economic differences and their changes in the consumption of vegetables, fruit and berries in two neighbouring areas: the district of Pitkäranta in the Republic of Karelia, Russia, and North Karelia, Finland. METHODS: Cross-sectional risk factor surveys in Pitkäranta, in 1992, 1997, 2002 and 2007 (1144 men, 1528 women) and in North Karelia, in 1992, 1997 and 2002 (2049 men, 2316 women), were carried out. Data collected with a self-administered questionnaire were analysed with logistic regression. RESULTS: The consumption of fruit and vegetables was more common in North Karelia than in Pitkäranta, but increased markedly in Pitkäranta from 1992 to 2007. In Pitkäranta, women, and in North Karelia both men and women with higher education ate fresh vegetables more often than those with a lower education. In both areas, daily consumption of fruit tended to be more common among subjects with a higher education. In Pitkäranta, there were virtually no differences by employment status. In North Karelia, vegetable consumption was less common among the unemployed than the employed subjects. Only minor socio-economic differences in berry consumption were observed. The educational differences in vegetable consumption seemed to widen in Pitkäranta and narrow in North Karelia. CONCLUSION: A converging trend was observed, with the Russian consumption levels and socio-economic differences starting to approach those observed in Finland. This may be partly explained by the improvements in availability and affordability of fruit and vegetables in Pitkäranta.

Comparison of metabolic syndrome prevalence using four different definitions - a population-based study in Finland.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a public health problem in Europe, affecting all age groups. Several MetS definitions are available. The aim of this study was to compare four different MetS definitions in the Finnish adult population, to assess their agreement and to evaluate the impact of the choice of the definition on the prevalence of MetS. METHODS: Data from FinHealth 2017, a cross-sectional national population health survey, focusing on adults aged 25 years or older were used in the analysis (n=5687). Measured data on anthropometrics, blood pressure and biomarkers together with questionnaire data were used to classify the participants into the MetS categories according to the four definitions. The definitions chosen for the comparison were those by the World Health Organization (WHO) (1998), National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP III) (2004), International Diabetes Federation (IDF) (2005), and Joint Interim Statement (JIS) (2009). RESULTS: The four MetS definitions resulted in substantially different MetS prevalence: 17.7% by WHO, 33.3% by NCEP-ATP III, 41.5% by IDF, and 43.0% by JIS. Regardless of the definition used, the prevalence of MetS increased with age. The prevalence of the different components varied between the definitions, depending on the different cut-off points adopted. Out of all participants, only 13.6% were identified to have MetS according to all four definitions. Agreement between participants recognised by different MetS definitions, estimated through kappa coefficients, was almost perfect for IDF vs. JIS (0.97), strong for JIS vs. NCEP-ATP III (0.80), moderate for IDF vs. NCEP-ATP III (0.76) and weak for WHO vs. NCEP-ATP III (0.42), WHO vs. IDF (0.41) and WHO vs. JIS (0.40). CONCLUSIONS: Differences between observed prevalence of MetS in Finnish men and women using different MetS definitions were large. For cross-country comparisons, as well as for trend analyses within a country, it is essential to use the same MetS definition to avoid discrepancies in classification due to differences in used definitions.

Bacterial Signatures of Paediatric Respiratory Disease: An Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis.

Introduction: The airway microbiota has been linked to specific paediatric respiratory diseases, but studies are often small. It remains unclear whether particular bacteria are associated with a given disease, or if a more general, non-specific microbiota association with disease exists, as suggested for the gut. We investigated overarching patterns of bacterial association with acute and chronic paediatric respiratory disease in an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of 16S rRNA gene sequences from published respiratory microbiota studies. Methods: We obtained raw microbiota data from public repositories or via communication with corresponding authors. Cross-sectional analyses of the paediatric (<18 years) microbiota in acute and chronic respiratory conditions, with >10 case subjects were included. Sequence data were processed using a uniform bioinformatics pipeline, removing a potentially substantial source of variation. Microbiota differences across diagnoses were assessed using alpha- and beta-diversity approaches, machine learning, and biomarker analyses. Results: We ultimately included 20 studies containing individual data from 2624 children. Disease was associated with lower bacterial diversity in nasal and lower airway samples and higher relative abundances of specific nasal taxa including Streptococcus and Haemophilus. Machine learning success in assigning samples to diagnostic groupings varied with anatomical site, with positive predictive value and sensitivity ranging from 43 to 100 and 8 to 99%, respectively. Conclusion: IPD meta-analysis of the respiratory microbiota across multiple diseases allowed identification of a non-specific disease association which cannot be recognised by studying a single disease. Whilst imperfect, machine learning offers promise as a potential additional tool to aid clinical diagnosis.

Inequalities by education and marital status in the co-occurrence of cardiovascular risk factors in Finland persisted between 1997-2017.

Understanding on sociodemographic variation of the co-occurrence of cardiovascular disease risk factors is crucial for planning future prevention strategies. We aimed at examining (1) the co-occurrence of smoking, obesity, hypertension and elevated serum cholesterol by education and marital status, and (2) its trends in different sociodemographic groups in Finland. We used data from cross-sectional health examination surveys among the general population (25-64 years): for 1997-2012 the National FINRISK Study and for 2017 the FinHealth 2017 Survey (n = 25036). A risk factor accumulation score with categories (1) zero, (2) one, (3) two, and (4) three or four elevated risk factors was the outcome in multinomial logistic regression. The risk factor score was more favourable among women, among high education groups, and slightly among participants living with a spouse. Among men, the lowest risk factor score class became more prevalent especially in the intermediate education group, which approached the highest education group over time. Our results indicate an overall transition towards a more favourable risk factor distribution. However, risk factor accumulation among the least educated remained emphasizing the need to develop and implement more targeted prevention interventions and public health policies to decrease the risk factor burden particularly in this group.

Comparing data sources in estimating disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for ischemic heart disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in a cross-sectional setting in Finland.

BACKGROUND: The disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) summarize the burden of years of life lost (YLL) due to premature mortality and years lost due to disability (YLD). Our aim was to estimate the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Finland in 2012, and to examine, how much the YLD are affected by the use of different data sources. METHODS: The YLL were calculated using mortality data for the Finnish 25-74-year-old population in 2012. The YLD were calculated using data from the FINRISK 2012 survey (3041 males, 3383 females aged 25-74 years) and then directly adjusted to the corresponding population. Different administrative registers on 1) hospital inpatient episodes and specialist outpatient visits, 2) entitlement to specially reimbursed medicines, and 3) purchases of prescribed medicines were used for estimation of the YLD in addition to self-reported data. The DALYs were calculated without age-weighting. RESULTS: The YLL for IHD were 37.5 for males and 9.1 for females per 1000 population among 25-74-year-old people in Finland in 2012. The YLD for IHD varied markedly depending on which data sources were used. All data sources combined, the YLD per 1000 were 5.3 for males and 2.5 for females resulting in estimated 42.8 and 11.6 DALYs per 1000 due to IHD among males and females, respectively. For COPD, the YLL were 4.7 for males and 2.0 for females per 1000. Also for COPD, the YLD varied markedly depending on data sources used. The YLD per 1000 based on all data sources combined were 2.0 for males and 1.6 for females. As a result, estimated 6.7 and 3.6 DALYs per 1000 were due to COPD among males and females, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Especially for COPD, all mild disease cases could probably not be identified from the included registers. Thereby, including survey data improved the coverage of the data. The YLD of IHD and COPD varied markedly between the data sources used in the calculations. However, as YLL constituted a major part of DALYs for these diseases, the variation in YLD did not lead to substantial variation in DALYs.

Protocol of a research project 'Projections of the burden of disease and disability in Finland - health policy prospects' using cross-sectional health surveys and register-based follow-up.

INTRODUCTION: With the rapid ageing of the population in Europe, reliable estimates of the future development of the disease and disability burden as well as healthy life years in the older sections of the population are crucial. Meanwhile, the future prospects of the health and functional ability of the working-aged population are critical. The aims of the Projections of the burden of disease and disability in Finland - health policy prospects research project are to provide information about the long-term consequences of health-related behaviours of the population and to project the potential improvement of the burden of disease and disability based on realistic scenarios about the development of risk behaviours in the total population and its subgroups. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The analyses will be based on data from representative cross-sectional and longitudinal health examination surveys (HESs) conducted between 1972 to 2017 in Finland, and register data from several national administrative registers. Included HESs (FINRISK Surveys from 1972 to 2012, Mini-Finland Survey from 1978 to 1980, the Health 2000/2011 Surveys and the FinHealth 2017 Study) provide abundant information about biological and behavioural risk factors and the health and morbidity of the population. The modifiable risk factors used as predictors include hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, obesity, diabetes, physical inactivity, smoking, alcohol use and unfavourable diet. The main outcomes are ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, Alzheimer's disease and diabetes. Within the project, novel projection techniques of data-driven Bayesian hierarchical models to provide robust and comparable estimates will be developed. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The prevailing legislation and regulations have been followed for all surveys. Surveys since 1997 have been approved by the respective Ethics Committees covering the scope of this project. A written informed consent was obtained from participants since 1997. The outputs of the project will include 8 to 10 scientific papers in peer-reviewed journals.