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1.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 29(10): 2125-2129, 2023 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37647121

ABSTRACT

The 2022-2023 mpox outbreak predominantly affected adult men; 1.3% of reported cases were in children and adolescents <18 years of age. Analysis of global surveillance data showed 1 hospital intensive care unit admission and 0 deaths in that age group. Transmission routes and clinical manifestations varied across age subgroups.


Subject(s)
Mpox (monkeypox) , Adolescent , Child , Humans , Disease Outbreaks , Hospitalization , Intensive Care Units
2.
Bull World Health Organ ; 101(11): 707-716, 2023 Nov 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37961054

ABSTRACT

Since the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, numerous severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants have emerged, some leading to large increases in infections, hospitalizations and deaths globally. The virus's impact on public health depends on many factors, including the emergence of new viral variants and their global spread. Consequently, the early detection and surveillance of variants and characterization of their clinical effects are vital for assessing their health risk. The unprecedented capacity for viral genomic sequencing and data sharing built globally during the pandemic has enabled new variants to be rapidly detected and assessed. This article describes the main variants circulating globally between January 2020 and June 2023, the genetic features driving variant evolution, and the epidemiological impact of these variants across countries and regions. Second, we report how integrating genetic variant surveillance with epidemiological data and event-based surveillance, through a network of World Health Organization partners, supported risk assessment and helped provide guidance on pandemic responses. In addition, given the evolutionary characteristics of circulating variants and the immune status of populations, we propose future directions for the sustainable genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 variants, both nationally and internationally: (i) optimizing variant surveillance by including environmental monitoring; (ii) coordinating laboratory assessment of variant evolution and phenotype; (iii) linking data on circulating variants with clinical data; and (iv) expanding genomic surveillance to additional pathogens. Experience during the COVID-19 pandemic has shown that genomic surveillance of pathogens can provide essential, timely and evidence-based information for public health decision-making.


Depuis le début de la pandémie de coronavirus survenue en 2019 (COVID-19), de nombreux variants du coronavirus 2 du syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (SARS-CoV-2) sont apparus, certains entraînant une forte augmentation du nombre d'infections, d'hospitalisations et de décès dans le monde. L'impact du virus sur la santé publique dépend de nombreux facteurs, notamment l'émergence de nouveaux variants viraux et leur propagation à l'échelle mondiale. Par conséquent, la détection précoce et la surveillance des variants ainsi que la caractérisation de leurs effets cliniques sont essentielles pour évaluer leur risque pour la santé. La capacité sans précédent de séquençage du génome viral et de partage des données, capacité mise en place à l'échelle mondiale pendant la pandémie, a permis de détecter et d'évaluer rapidement de nouveaux variants. Le présent article décrit les principaux variants circulant dans le monde entre janvier 2020 et juin 2023, les caractéristiques génétiques à l'origine de leur évolution et leur impact épidémiologique dans les différents pays et régions. Ensuite, nous expliquerons comment l'intégration de la surveillance des variants génétiques aux données épidémiologiques et à la surveillance fondée sur les événements, par l'intermédiaire d'un réseau de partenaires de l'Organisation mondiale de la santé, a permis de faciliter l'évaluation des risques et de fournir des orientations sur les mesures à prendre en période de pandémie. En outre, compte tenu des caractéristiques évolutives des variants en circulation et de l'état immunitaire des populations, nous proposons des orientations futures pour une surveillance génomique durable des variants du SARS-CoV-2, au niveau tant national qu'international: (i) optimiser la surveillance des variants en incluant le suivi environnemental; (ii) coordonner l'évaluation en laboratoire de l'évolution des variants et du phénotype; (iii) établir un lien entre les données sur les variants en circulation et les données cliniques; et (iv) étendre la surveillance génomique à d'autres agents pathogènes. L'expérience de la pandémie de COVID-19 a mis en évidence que la surveillance génomique des agents pathogènes peut fournir en temps utile des informations essentielles fondées sur des preuves en vue de la prise de décisions en matière de santé publique.


Desde el inicio de la pandemia de la enfermedad por coronavirus de 2019 (COVID-19), han aparecido numerosas variantes del coronavirus de tipo 2 causante del síndrome respiratorio agudo severo (SRAS-CoV-2), algunas de las que han provocado un gran aumento de las infecciones, hospitalizaciones y muertes en todo el mundo. El impacto del virus en la salud pública depende de muchos factores, entre ellos la aparición de nuevas variantes víricas y su propagación mundial. En consecuencia, la detección y vigilancia tempranas de las variantes y la caracterización de sus efectos clínicos son vitales para evaluar su riesgo sanitario. La capacidad sin precedentes de secuenciación genómica viral y de intercambio de datos creada a nivel mundial durante la pandemia ha permitido detectar y evaluar rápidamente variantes nuevas. En este artículo se describen las principales variantes que circulan a nivel mundial entre enero de 2020 y junio de 2023, la característica genética que impulsa la evolución de las variantes y el impacto epidemiológico de estas variantes en los diferentes países y regiones. En segundo lugar, se informa de cómo la integración de la vigilancia de variantes genéticas con los datos epidemiológicos y la vigilancia basada en eventos, a través de una red de asociados de la Organización Mundial de la Salud, apoyó la evaluación de riesgos y ayudó a proporcionar orientación sobre las respuestas a la pandemia. Además, dadas las características evolutivas de las variantes circulantes y el estado inmunitario de las poblaciones, se proponen orientaciones futuras para la vigilancia genómica sostenible de las variantes del SRAS-CoV-2, tanto a nivel nacional como internacional: (i) optimizar la vigilancia de las variantes mediante la inclusión de la monitorización ambiental; (ii) coordinar la evaluación de laboratorio de la evolución y el fenotipo de las variantes; (iii) vincular los datos sobre las variantes circulantes con los datos clínicos; y (iv) ampliar la vigilancia genómica a patógenos adicionales. La experiencia durante la pandemia de la COVID-19 ha demostrado que la vigilancia genómica de patógenos puede proporcionar información esencial, oportuna y basada en evidencias para la toma de decisiones en materia de salud pública.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humans , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , COVID-19/epidemiology , Pandemics , Risk Assessment
3.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 72(5): 113-118, 2023 Feb 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36730046

ABSTRACT

After the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in late 2019, transmission expanded globally, and on January 30, 2020, COVID-19 was declared a public health emergency of international concern.* Analysis of the early Wuhan, China outbreak (1), subsequently confirmed by multiple other studies (2,3), found that 80% of deaths occurred among persons aged ≥60 years. In anticipation of the time needed for the global vaccine supply to meet all needs, the World Health Organization (WHO) published the Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE) Values Framework and a roadmap for prioritizing use of COVID-19 vaccines in late 2020 (4,5), followed by a strategy brief to outline urgent actions in October 2021.† WHO described the general principles, objectives, and priorities needed to support country planning of vaccine rollout to minimize severe disease and death. A July 2022 update to the strategy brief§ prioritized vaccination of populations at increased risk, including older adults,¶ with the goal of 100% coverage with a complete COVID-19 vaccination series** for at-risk populations. Using available public data on COVID-19 mortality (reported deaths and model estimates) for 2020 and 2021 and the most recent reported COVID-19 vaccination coverage data from WHO, investigators performed descriptive analyses to examine age-specific mortality and global vaccination rollout among older adults (as defined by each country), stratified by country World Bank income status. Data quality and COVID-19 death reporting frequency varied by data source; however, persons aged ≥60 years accounted for >80% of the overall COVID-19 mortality across all income groups, with upper- and lower-middle-income countries accounting for 80% of the overall estimated excess mortality. Effective COVID-19 vaccines were authorized for use in December 2020, with global supply scaled up sufficiently to meet country needs by late 2021 (6). COVID-19 vaccines are safe and highly effective in reducing severe COVID-19, hospitalizations, and mortality (7,8); nevertheless, country-reported median completed primary series coverage among adults aged ≥60 years only reached 76% by the end of 2022, substantially below the WHO goal, especially in middle- and low-income countries. Increased efforts are needed to increase primary series and booster dose coverage among all older adults as recommended by WHO and national health authorities.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Vaccines , Humans , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19 Vaccines , SARS-CoV-2 , Vaccination , World Health Organization
4.
Euro Surveill ; 27(49)2022 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36695442

ABSTRACT

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) presented a unique opportunity for the World Health Organization (WHO) to utilise public health intelligence (PHI) for pandemic response. WHO systematically captured mainly unstructured information (e.g. media articles, listservs, community-based reporting) for public health intelligence purposes. WHO used the Epidemic Intelligence from Open Sources (EIOS) system as one of the information sources for PHI. The processes and scope for PHI were adapted as the pandemic evolved and tailored to regional response needs. During the early months of the pandemic, media monitoring complemented official case and death reporting through the International Health Regulations mechanism and triggered alerts. As the pandemic evolved, PHI activities prioritised identifying epidemiological trends to supplement the information available through indicator-based surveillance reported to WHO. The PHI scope evolved over time to include vaccine introduction, emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants, unusual clinical manifestations and upsurges in cases, hospitalisation and death incidences at subnational levels. Triaging the unprecedented high volume of information challenged surveillance activities but was managed by collaborative information sharing. The evolution of PHI activities using multiple sources in WHO's response to the COVID-19 pandemic illustrates the future directions in which PHI methodologies could be developed and used.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Public Health , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Pandemics/prevention & control , World Health Organization , Intelligence
5.
Euro Surveill ; 26(24)2021 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34142653

ABSTRACT

We present a global analysis of the spread of recently emerged SARS-CoV-2 variants and estimate changes in effective reproduction numbers at country-specific level using sequence data from GISAID. Nearly all investigated countries demonstrated rapid replacement of previously circulating lineages by the World Health Organization-designated variants of concern, with estimated transmissibility increases of 29% (95% CI: 24-33), 25% (95% CI: 20-30), 38% (95% CI: 29-48) and 97% (95% CI: 76-117), respectively, for B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1 and B.1.617.2.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Basic Reproduction Number , Humans
7.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 20(8)2014 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25062306

ABSTRACT

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) caused significant outbreaks of illness during 2005-2007 in the Indian Ocean region. Chikungunya outbreaks have also occurred in the Pacific region, including in Papua New Guinea in 2012; New Caledonia in April 2013; and Yap State, Federated States of Micronesia, in August 2013. CHIKV is a threat in the Pacific, and the risk for further spread is high, given several similarities between the Pacific and Indian Ocean chikungunya outbreaks. Island health care systems have difficulties coping with high caseloads, which highlights the need for early multidisciplinary preparedness. The Pacific Public Health Surveillance Network has developed several strategies focusing on surveillance, case management, vector control, laboratory confirmation, and communication. The management of this CHIKV threat will likely have broad implications for global public health.


Subject(s)
Chikungunya Fever/epidemiology , Chikungunya Fever/prevention & control , Chikungunya virus , Animals , Chikungunya Fever/transmission , Disease Outbreaks , Humans , Indian Ocean Islands/epidemiology , Pacific Islands/epidemiology , Risk
8.
BMC Infect Dis ; 14: 186, 2014 Apr 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24708723

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Human leptospirosis is an emerging infectious disease of global significance, and is endemic to several countries in the Pacific. Zoonotic transmission dynamics combined with diagnostic challenges lead to difficulties in prevention and identification of cases. The Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) lacks surveillance data for human leptospirosis. This hospital-based serologic survey sought to estimate the burden of leptospirosis, collect information relating to associated factors, and assess the leptospirosis point-of-care rapid diagnostic test (RDT) commonly used in FSM. METHODS: A four-month hospital-based survey was conducted in Pohnpei State, FSM in 2011. Patients with undifferentiated fevers presenting to hospital were referred for enrolment by physicians. Consenting participants provided paired blood specimens 10-30 days apart, and responded to interview questions regarding demographics, clinical symptoms, exposure to animals, and environmental exposure. Blood samples were subjected to immunochromatographic RDT and confirmed by microscopic agglutination test (MAT). RESULTS: Of 54 participants tested by MAT, 20.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.1-30.6%) showed serologic evidence of acute infection. Occupation student (odds ratio [OR], 17.5; 95% CI: 1.9-161.1) and recreational gardening (OR, 8.6; 95% CI: 1.0-73.8), identified by univariate logistic regression, were associated with infection. The local rapid diagnostic test (RDT) performed with a sensitivity of 69.2 (42.3-89.3 CI) and specificity of 90.0 (81.6-95.6 CI) compared to MAT. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated a high burden of leptospirosis in Pohnpei. Further work is warranted to identify additional risk factors and opportunities to control leptospirosis in Pohnpei and other Pacific settings.


Subject(s)
Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology , Leptospirosis/epidemiology , Adolescent , Adult , Child , Communicable Diseases, Emerging/microbiology , Female , Fever/epidemiology , Fever/microbiology , Hospitals/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Leptospirosis/diagnosis , Male , Micronesia/epidemiology , Seroepidemiologic Studies , Young Adult
9.
BMC Infect Dis ; 14: 449, 2014 Aug 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25141942

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Cholera continues to be a devastating disease in many developing countries where inadequate safe water supply and poor sanitation facilitate spread. From July 2009 until late 2011 Papua New Guinea experienced the first outbreak of cholera recorded in the country, resulting in >15,500 cases and >500 deaths. METHODS: Using the national cholera database, we analysed the spatio-temporal distribution and clustering of the Papua New Guinea cholera outbreak. The Kulldorff space-time permutation scan statistic, contained in the software package SatScan v9.2 was used to describe the first 8 weeks of the outbreak in Morobe Province before cholera cases spread throughout other regions of the country. Data were aggregated at the provincial level to describe the spread of the disease to other affected provinces. RESULTS: Spatio-temporal and cluster analyses revealed that the outbreak was characterized by three distinct phases punctuated by explosive propagation of cases when the outbreak spread to a new region. The lack of road networks across most of Papua New Guinea is likely to have had a major influence on the slow spread of the disease during this outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: Identification of high risk areas and the likely mode of spread can guide government health authorities to formulate public health strategies to mitigate the spread of the disease through education campaigns, vaccination, increased surveillance in targeted areas and interventions to improve water, sanitation and hygiene.


Subject(s)
Cholera/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks , Adolescent , Adult , Child , Child, Preschool , Cluster Analysis , Communicable Disease Control , Developing Countries , Female , Geography , Humans , Hygiene , Infant , Male , Middle Aged , Papua New Guinea/epidemiology , Public Health , Spatio-Temporal Analysis , Vaccination , Water Microbiology , Water Supply , Young Adult
10.
BMJ Glob Health ; 9(4)2024 Apr 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38580376

ABSTRACT

On 31 December 2019, the Municipal Health Commission of Wuhan, China, reported a cluster of atypical pneumonia cases. On 5 January 2020, the WHO publicly released a Disease Outbreak News (DON) report, providing information about the pneumonia cases, implemented response interventions, and WHO's risk assessment and advice on public health and social measures. Following 9 additional DON reports and 209 daily situation reports, on 17 August 2020, WHO published the first edition of the COVID-19 Weekly Epidemiological Update (WEU). On 1 September 2023, the 158th edition of the WEU was published on WHO's website, marking its final issue. Since then, the WEU has been replaced by comprehensive global epidemiological updates on COVID-19 released every 4 weeks. During the span of its publication, the webpage that hosts the WEU and the COVID-19 Operational Updates was accessed annually over 1.4 million times on average, with visits originating from more than 100 countries. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the WEU process, from data collection to publication, focusing on the scope, technical details, main features, underlying methods, impact and limitations. We also discuss WHO's experience in disseminating epidemiological information on the COVID-19 pandemic at the global level and provide recommendations for enhancing collaboration and information sharing to support future health emergency responses.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Public Health , World Health Organization
11.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 19(9): 1535-8, 2013.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23965757

ABSTRACT

In June 2012, health authorities in Papua New Guinea detected an increase in febrile illnesses in Vanimo. Chikungunya virus of the Eastern/Central/Southern African genotype harboring the E1:A226V mutation was identified. This ongoing outbreak has spread to ≥8 other provinces and has had a harmful effect on public health.


Subject(s)
Alphavirus Infections/epidemiology , Chikungunya virus/genetics , Disease Outbreaks , Adolescent , Adult , Chikungunya Fever , Chikungunya virus/classification , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Mutation , Papua New Guinea/epidemiology , Phylogeny , Seasons , Viral Envelope Proteins/genetics , Young Adult
12.
BMC Infect Dis ; 13: 6, 2013 Jan 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23289407

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Historically, Pacific island countries and territories (PICTs) have been more severely affected by influenza pandemics than any other part of the world. We herein describe the emergence and epidemiologic characteristics of pandemic influenza H1N1 in PICTs from 2009 to 2010. METHODS: The World Health Organization gathered reports of influenza-like-illness and laboratory-confirmed pandemic H1N1 cases from all 23 Pacific island countries and territories, from April 2009 through August 2010. Data were gathered through weekly email reports from Pacific island countries and territories and through email or telephone follow-up. RESULTS: Pacific island countries and territories started detecting pandemic H1N1 cases in June 2009, firstly in French Polynesia, with the last new detection occurring in August 2009 in Tuvalu. Nineteen Pacific island countries and territories reported 1,972 confirmed cases, peaking in August 2009. No confirmed pandemic H1N1 cases were identified in Niue, Pitcairn and Tokelau; the latter instituted strict maritime quarantine. Influenza-like-illness surveillance showed trends similar to surveillance of confirmed cases.Seven Pacific island countries and territories reported 21 deaths of confirmed pandemic H1N1. Case-patients died of acute respiratory distress syndrome or multi-organ failure, or both. The most reported pre-existing conditions were obesity, lung disease, heart disease, and pregnancy.Pacific island countries and territories instituted a variety of mitigation measures, including arrival health screening. Multiple partners facilitated influenza preparedness planning and outbreak response. CONCLUSIONS: Pandemic influenza spread rapidly throughout the Pacific despite enormous distances and relative isolation. Tokelau and Pitcairn may be the only jurisdictions to have remained pandemic-free. Despite being well-prepared, Pacific island countries and territories experienced significant morbidity and mortality, consistent with other indigenous and low-resource settings.For the first time, regional influenza-like-illness surveillance was conducted in the Pacific, allowing health authorities to monitor the pandemic's spread and severity in real-time.Future regional outbreak responses will likely benefit from the lessons learned during this outbreak.


Subject(s)
Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Pandemics , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Child , Child, Preschool , Disease Outbreaks , Female , Humans , Infant , Influenza, Human/prevention & control , Male , Middle Aged , Pacific Islands/epidemiology , Public Health Surveillance , Young Adult
13.
P N G Med J ; 56(3-4): 136-40, 2013.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26288931

ABSTRACT

Pigbel remains a likely significant cause of morbidity and mortality in the highlands of Papua New Guinea (PNG), two decades after the administration of pigbel vaccination ceased. There is a need for an effective surveillance program for pigbel to better understand the disease burden and to target communities for preventive strategies. This paper reviews the epidemiology, pathogenesis, recent history and current data on the burden of pigbel in PNG. We propose a surveillance program based on clinical recognition of likely cases and laboratory confirmation using an ELISA assay for Clostridium perfringens type C beta-toxin. Research aimed at validating this approach in the clinical setting is outlined.


Subject(s)
Clostridium Infections/microbiology , Clostridium Infections/prevention & control , Enteritis/microbiology , Enteritis/prevention & control , Clostridium Infections/epidemiology , Clostridium perfringens/pathogenicity , Enteritis/epidemiology , Health Services Needs and Demand , Humans , Incidence , Papua New Guinea/epidemiology , Population Surveillance
14.
Lancet Glob Health ; 11(7): e1012-e1023, 2023 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37349031

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In May 2022, several countries with no history of sustained community transmission of mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) notified WHO of new mpox cases. These cases were soon followed by a large-scale outbreak, which unfolded across the world, driven by local, in-country transmission within previously unaffected countries. On July 23, 2022, WHO declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Here, we aim to describe the main epidemiological features of this outbreak, the largest reported to date. METHODS: In this analysis of global surveillance data we analysed data for all confirmed mpox cases reported by WHO Member States through the global surveillance system from Jan 1, 2022, to Jan 29, 2023. Data included daily aggregated numbers of mpox cases by country and a case reporting form (CRF) containing information on demographics, clinical presentation, epidemiological exposure factors, and laboratory testing. We used the data to (1) describe the key epidemiological and clinical features of cases; (2) analyse risk factors for hospitalisation (by multivariable mixed-effects binary logistic regression); and (3) retrospectively analyse transmission trends. Sequencing data from GISAID and GenBank were used to analyse monkeypox virus (MPXV) genetic diversity. FINDINGS: Data from 82 807 cases with submitted CRFs were included in the analysis. Cases were primarily due to clade IIb MPXV (mainly lineage B.1, followed by lineage A.2). The outbreak was driven by transmission among males (73 560 [96·4%] of 76 293 cases) who self-identify as men who have sex with men (25 938 [86·9%] of 29 854 cases). The most common reported route of transmission was sexual contact (14 941 [68·7%] of 21 749). 3927 (7·3%) of 54 117 cases were hospitalised, with increased odds for those aged younger than 5 years (adjusted odds ratio 2·12 [95% CI 1·32-3·40], p=0·0020), aged 65 years and older (1·54 [1·05-2·25], p=0·026), female cases (1·61 [1·35-1·91], p<0·0001), and for cases who are immunosuppressed either due to being HIV positive and immunosuppressed (2·00 [1·68-2·37], p<0·0001), or other immunocompromising conditions (3·47 [1·84-6·54], p=0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Continued global surveillance allowed WHO to monitor the epidemic, identify risk factors, and inform the public health response. The outbreak can be attributed to clade IIb MPXV spread by newly described modes of transmission. FUNDING: WHO Contingency Fund for Emergencies. TRANSLATIONS: For the French and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.


Subject(s)
Mpox (monkeypox) , Sexual and Gender Minorities , Male , Female , Humans , Homosexuality, Male , Retrospective Studies , Disease Outbreaks
15.
BMJ Glob Health ; 8(7)2023 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37495371

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Globally, since 1 January 2020 and as of 24 January 2023, there have been over 664 million cases of COVID-19 and over 6.7 million deaths reported to WHO. WHO developed an evidence-based alert system, assessing public health risk on a weekly basis in 237 countries, territories and areas from May 2021 to June 2022. This aimed to facilitate the early identification of situations where healthcare capacity may become overstretched. METHODS: The process involved a three-stage mixed methods approach. In the first stage, future deaths were predicted from the time series of reported cases and deaths to produce an initial alert level. In the second stage, this alert level was adjusted by incorporating a range of contextual indicators and accounting for the quality of information available using a Bayes classifier. In the third stage, countries with an alert level of 'High' or above were added to an operational watchlist and assistance was deployed as needed. RESULTS: Since June 2021, the system has supported the release of more than US$27 million from WHO emergency funding, over 450 000 rapid antigen diagnostic testing kits and over 6000 oxygen concentrators. Retrospective evaluation indicated that the first two stages were needed to maximise sensitivity, where 44% (IQR 29%-67%) of weekly watchlist alerts would not have been identified using only reported cases and deaths. The alerts were timely and valid in most cases; however, this could only be assessed on a non-representative sample of countries with hospitalisation data available. CONCLUSIONS: The system provided a standardised approach to monitor the pandemic at the country level by incorporating all available data on epidemiological analytics and contextual assessments. While this system was developed for COVID-19, a similar system could be used for future outbreaks and emergencies, with necessary adjustments to parameters and indicators.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Public Health , Humans , Bayes Theorem , Disease Outbreaks , Retrospective Studies , World Health Organization
16.
Lancet Healthy Longev ; 2(7): e436-e443, 2021 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34240065

ABSTRACT

The 2030 Sustainable Development Goals agenda calls for health data to be disaggregated by age. However, age groupings used to record and report health data vary greatly, hindering the harmonisation, comparability, and usefulness of these data, within and across countries. This variability has become especially evident during the COVID-19 pandemic, when there was an urgent need for rapid cross-country analyses of epidemiological patterns by age to direct public health action, but such analyses were limited by the lack of standard age categories. In this Personal View, we propose a recommended set of age groupings to address this issue. These groupings are informed by age-specific patterns of morbidity, mortality, and health risks, and by opportunities for prevention and disease intervention. We recommend age groupings of 5 years for all health data, except for those younger than 5 years, during which time there are rapid biological and physiological changes that justify a finer disaggregation. Although the focus of this Personal View is on the standardisation of the analysis and display of age groups, we also outline the challenges faced in collecting data on exact age, especially for health facilities and surveillance data. The proposed age disaggregation should facilitate targeted, age-specific policies and actions for health care and disease management.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Child, Preschool , Humans , Morbidity , Sustainable Development
17.
Int J Infect Dis ; 97: 167-173, 2020 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32450292

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Between December 2013 and June 2016, West Africa experienced the largest Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in history. Understanding EVD in pregnancy is important for EVD clinical screening and infection prevention and control. METHODS: We conducted a review of medical records and EVD investigation reports from three districts in Sierra Leone. We report the clinical presentations and maternal and fetal outcomes of six pregnant women with atypical EVD, and subsequent transmission events from perinatal care. RESULTS: The six women (ages 18-38) were all in the third trimester. Each presented with signs and symptoms initially attributed to pregnancy. None met EVD case definition; only one was known at presentation to be a contact of an EVD case. Five women died, and all six fetuses/neonates died. These cases resulted in at least 35 additional EVD cases. CONCLUSIONS: These cases add to the sparse literature focusing on pregnant women with EVD, highlighting challenges and implications for outbreak control. Infected newborns may also present atypically and may shed virus while apparently asymptomatic. Pregnant women identified a priori as contacts of EVD cases require special attention and planning for obstetrical care.


Subject(s)
Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/diagnosis , Pregnancy Complications, Infectious/diagnosis , Adolescent , Adult , Disease Outbreaks , Female , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Humans , Infant, Newborn , Pregnancy , Pregnancy Complications, Infectious/virology , Public Health , Sierra Leone/epidemiology , Young Adult
18.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 15(11): 1721-6, 2009 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-19891857

ABSTRACT

The United States is the world's largest wildlife importer, and imported wild animals represent a potential source of zoonotic pathogens. Using data on mammals imported during 2000-2005, we assessed their potential to host 27 selected risk zoonoses and created a risk assessment that could inform policy making for wildlife importation and zoonotic disease surveillance. A total of 246,772 mammals in 190 genera (68 families) were imported. The most widespread agents of risk zoonoses were rabies virus (in 78 genera of mammals), Bacillus anthracis (57), Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (48), Echinococcus spp. (41), and Leptospira spp. (35). Genera capable of harboring the greatest number of risk zoonoses were Canis and Felis (14 each), Rattus (13), Equus (11), and Macaca and Lepus (10 each). These findings demonstrate the myriad opportunities for zoonotic pathogens to be imported and suggest that, to ensure public safety, immediate proactive changes are needed at multiple levels.


Subject(s)
Animals, Wild/microbiology , Animals, Wild/virology , Communicable Diseases, Emerging/transmission , Zoonoses/transmission , Animals , Commerce/legislation & jurisprudence , Humans , Internationality/legislation & jurisprudence , Mammals/microbiology , Mammals/virology , Policy Making , Public Health/legislation & jurisprudence , Risk Assessment , United States
19.
N Engl J Med ; 354(21): 2235-49, 2006 May 25.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-16723615

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In December 2003 and April 2005, signs and symptoms suggestive of infection developed in two groups of recipients of solid-organ transplants. Each cluster was investigated because diagnostic evaluations were unrevealing, and in each a common donor was recognized. METHODS: We examined clinical specimens from the two donors and eight recipients, using viral culture, electron microscopy, serologic testing, molecular analysis, and histopathological examination with immunohistochemical staining to identify a cause. Epidemiologic investigations, including interviews, environmental assessments, and medical-record reviews, were performed to characterize clinical courses and to determine the cause of the illnesses. RESULTS: Laboratory testing revealed lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) in all the recipients, with a single, unique strain of LCMV identified in each cluster. In both investigations, LCMV could not be detected in the organ donor. In the 2005 cluster, the donor had had contact in her home with a pet hamster infected with an LCMV strain identical to that detected in the organ recipients; no source of LCMV infection was found in the 2003 cluster. The transplant recipients had abdominal pain, altered mental status, thrombocytopenia, elevated aminotransferase levels, coagulopathy, graft dysfunction, and either fever or leukocytosis within three weeks after transplantation. Diarrhea, peri-incisional rash, renal failure, and seizures were variably present. Seven of the eight recipients died, 9 to 76 days after transplantation. One recipient, who received ribavirin and reduced levels of immunosuppressive therapy, survived. CONCLUSIONS: We document two clusters of LCMV infection transmitted through organ transplantation.


Subject(s)
Disease Transmission, Infectious , Lymphocytic Choriomeningitis/transmission , Lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus/isolation & purification , Organ Transplantation/adverse effects , Adult , Animals , Arenaviridae Infections/veterinary , Cricetinae , Fatal Outcome , Female , Humans , Kidney/pathology , Kidney/virology , Liver/pathology , Liver/virology , Lung/pathology , Lung/virology , Lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus/classification , Lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus/ultrastructure , Male , Microscopy, Electron , Middle Aged , Zoonoses/transmission
20.
BMJ Glob Health ; 4(6): e001969, 2019.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31908873

ABSTRACT

Papua New Guinea (PNG) faces a critical shortage of human resources to address pressing public health challenges arising from an increasing burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases. PNG is an independent State in the Pacific and home to 8.2 million people. Resource and infrastructure constraints due to the country's challenging geography have made it difficult and expensive to deliver health services and implement health programmes. The National Department of Health and its partners developed a field epidemiology training programme of Papua New Guinea (FETPNG) to strengthen the country's public health workforce. The training programme covers field epidemiology competencies and includes the design, implementation and evaluation of evidence-based interventions by Fellows. From 2013 to 2018, FETPNG graduated 81 field epidemiologists. Most FETPNG graduates (84%) were from provincial or district health departments or organisations. Many of their intervention projects resulted in successful public health outcomes with tangible local impacts. Health challenges addressed included reducing the burden of multi-drug resistant-tuberculosis (TB), increasing immunisation coverage, screening and treating HIV/TB patients, and improving reproductive health outcomes. FETPNG Fellows and graduates have also evaluated disease surveillance systems and investigated disease outbreaks. Early and unwavering national ownership of FETPNG created a sustainable programme fitting the needs of this low-resource country. A focus on designing and implementing effective public health interventions not only provides useful skills to Fellows but also contributes to real-time, tangible and meaningful improvements in the health of the population. The graduates of FETPNG now provide a critical mass of public health practitioners across the country. Their skills in responding to outbreaks and public health emergencies, in collecting, analysing and interpreting data, and in designing, implementing and evaluating public health interventions continues to advance public health in PNG.

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