Modelling climate change impacts on the spatial distribution of anthrax in Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: In Zimbabwe, anthrax is endemic with outbreaks being reported almost annually in livestock, wildlife, and humans over the past 40 years. Accurate modelling of its spatial distribution is key in formulating effective control strategies. In this study, an Ensemble Species Distribution Model was used to model the current and future distribution of anthrax occurrence in Zimbabwe. METHODS: Bioclimatic variables derived from the Beijing Climate Centre Climate System Model were used to model the disease. Collinearity testing was conducted on the 19 bioclimatic variables and elevation to remove redundancy. Variables that had no collinearity were used for anthrax habitat suitability modelling. Two future climate change scenarios for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used. Model evaluation was done using true skill, Kappa statistics and receiver operating characteristics. RESULTS: The results showed that under current bioclimatic conditions, eastern and western districts of Zimbabwe were modelled as highly suitable, central districts moderately suitable and southern parts marginally suitable for anthrax occurrence. Future predictions demonstrated that the suitable (8%) and highly suitable (7%) areas for anthrax occurrence would increase under RCP4.5 scenario. In contrast, a respective decrease (11%) and marginal increase (0.6%) of suitable and highly suitable areas for anthrax occurrence were predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. The percentage contribution of the predictors varied for the different scenarios; Bio6 and Bio18 for the current scenario, Bio2, Bio4 and Bio9 for the RCP4.5 and Bio3 and Bio15 for the RCP8.5 scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: The study revealed that areas currently suitable for anthrax should be targeted for surveillance and prevention. The predicted future anthrax distribution can be used to guide and prioritise surveillance and control activities and optimise allocation of limited resources. In the marginally to moderately suitable areas, effective disease surveillance systems and awareness need to be put in place for early detection of outbreaks. Targeted vaccinations and other control measures including collaborative 'One Health' strategies need to be implemented in the predicted highly suitable areas. In the southern part where a high decrease in suitability was predicted, continued monitoring would be necessary to detect incursions early.

Spatial and seasonal patterns of FMD primary outbreaks in cattle in Zimbabwe between 1931 and 2016.

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is an important livestock disease impacting mainly intensive production systems. In southern Africa, the FMD virus is maintained in wildlife and its control is therefore complicated. However, FMD control is an important task to allow countries access to lucrative foreign meat market and veterinary services implement drastic control measures on livestock populations living in the periphery of protected areas, negatively impacting local small-scale livestock producers. This study investigated FMD primary outbreak data in Zimbabwe from 1931 to 2016 to describe the spatio-temporal distribution of FMD outbreaks and their potential drivers. The results suggest that: (i) FMD outbreaks were not randomly distributed in space across Zimbabwe but are clustered in the Southeast Lowveld (SEL); (ii) the proximity of protected areas with African buffalos was potentially responsible for primary FMD outbreaks in cattle; (iii) rainfall per se was not associated with FMD outbreaks, but seasons impacted the temporal occurrence of FMD outbreaks across regions; (iv) the frequency of FMD outbreaks increased during periods of major socio-economic and political crisis. The differences between the spatial clusters and other areas in Zimbabwe presenting similar buffalo/cattle interfaces but with fewer FMD outbreaks can be interpreted in light of the recent better understanding of wildlife/livestock interactions in these areas. The types of wildlife/livestock interfaces are hypothesized to be the key drivers of contacts between wildlife and livestock, triggering a risk of FMD inter-species spillover. The management of wildlife/livestock interfaces is therefore crucial for the control of FMD in southern Africa.

Bovine anaplasmosis in Zimbabwe: spatio-temporal distribution and environmental drivers.

Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of Bovine anaplasmosis is crucial for identifying areas of high prevalence for targeted disease control. This research was aimed at modelling and mapping the B. anaplasmosis potential distribution, and identify hotspots as well as significant variables explaining the occurrence of the disease. The Getis Ord Gi* statistic for Hotspot analysis was used as well as MaxEnt ecological niche modelling. The effects of time, land-use, and agro-ecological regions on B. anaplasmosis occurrence were tested using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). Results showed that several districts in Zimbabwe are suitable for the occurence of the disease for example Binga, Seke, Buhera, Kwekwe, Gweru, Mhondoro, Chegutu, Sanyati, and in the North: Mbire, Muzarabani, Mt Darwin, Shamva, Bindura, Zvimba and Makonde. Morbidity and mortality hotspots were detected in Gokwe-south, Kwekwe, and Chirumhanzu districts. Binga, Gokwe-south, Gutu, Hurungwe, Mazoe, Nkayi, Shamva, and Kwekwe districts also experienced high disease incidences. Temperature seasonality, precipitation seasonality, mean diurnal range, and isothermality were the most important variables in explaining 93% of B. anaplasmosis distribution. Unlike land-use and agro-ecological regions, time (months) had a significant effect on B. anaplasmosis occurrence with July and September having significantly (p < 0.05) higher cases and deaths than the rest of the months. The results of this study provide insights into the management strategies and control of B. anaplasmosis in Zimbabwe. It is thus concluded that geo-spatial techniques, combined with ecological niche modelling can provide useful insights into disease prevalence and distribution and hence can contribute to effective management and control of B. anaplasmosis in Zimbabwe.

Survey of brucellosis at the wildlife-livestock interface on the Zimbabwean side of the Great Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area.

A cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the seroprevalence of bovine brucellosis in communal cattle and wildlife at a wildlife-livestock interface in the southeast lowveld of Zimbabwe, part of the Great Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area. RBT and c-Elisa were used in serial for detection of antibodies against Brucella spp. Between July 2007 and October 2009, a total of 1,158 cattle were tested and the overall seroprevalence of brucellosis was 9.9%. A total of 97 wild animals (African buffaloes (n=47), impala (n=33), kudu (n=16), and giraffe (n=1)) were tested and only one animal (giraffe) was seropositive for brucellosis (1.03%). Brucella seroprevalence showed an increasing trend with age, with adult cattle (>6 years) recording the highest seroprevalence (11.1%), but the differences were not statistically significant. Similarly, female cattle recorded a relatively higher seroprevalence (10.8%) compared to males (7.9%), but the difference was not significant. However, a significant (P<0.001) association between Brucella seropositivity and abortion history was recorded in female cattle. Similarly, Brucella seropositivity was significantly (P<0.01) associated with a history of grazing in the park for female cattle. Overall, from the interface area, cattle with a history of grazing in the park recorded a significantly (P<0.01) higher Brucella seroprevalence (13.5%) compared to those with no history of grazing in the park (4.9%). The significant association between abortion history and seropositivity observed in this study illustrates the potential economic significance of Brucella in cattle in this area. Hence, public awareness and further epidemiological studies of the disease in wildlife, livestock, and humans in the study area are of great importance.

Milk producers' awareness of milk-borne zoonoses in selected smallholder and commercial dairy farms of Zimbabwe.

A cross-sectional questionnaire-based study was conducted to assess milk producers' awareness of milk-borne zoonoses in selected smallholder and commercial dairy farms of Zimbabwe. The questionnaire was designed to obtain information on dairy breeds, milk production, dairy farmers' knowledge and awareness of zoonoses with particular emphasis on milk-borne zoonoses and farmers' behavioural practices that may lead to increased risk of milk-borne zoonoses transmission. A total of 119 dairy farmers were interviewed, and 41.5% were aware of milk-borne zoonoses with a significantly (P<0.01) higher percentage of commercial dairy farmers (65.0%) being aware compared to smallholder dairy farmers (36.7%). The behavioural practices of dairy farmers observed to increase the risk of milk-borne zoonoses transmission were; consumption of raw milk (68.1%), sale of raw milk to the local public (25.2%), lack of cooling facilities by smallholder farmers (98%), and no routine testing (84.9%) and medical check-ups (89.1%) for milk-borne zoonoses. General hygienic and disease control practices need to be integrated in the milk production process particularly at the smallholder level. Awareness, teaching and training programmes for smallholder dairy farmers can improve disease control in animals and reduce the public health risk of milk-borne zoonoses.

A survey of pet ownership, awareness and public knowledge of pet zoonoses with particular reference to roundworms and hookworms in Harare, Zimbabwe.

A cross-sectional questionnaire-based survey was carried out in Harare to assess pet ownership and public awareness with regard to pet zoonoses. The questionnaire was designed to obtain information on pet ownership, health and welfare of pets, pet owners' knowledge and awareness of pet zoonoses with particular emphasis on hookworms and roundworms. The results demonstrated that the proportion of pet owners who knew helminths as zoonoses in dogs (21.3%) and cats (1.1%) was low compared to rabies (95.7%) with ancylostomosis (4.3%) and toxocariosis (2.1%) being the specific parasitic zoonoses known to occur in dogs and toxoplasmosis (2.1%) in cats. More than 50% of the pet owners indicated that veterinarians never discussed the potential hazards of zoonoses or discussed it only when asked and 33% indicated that veterinarians initiated discussion of the subject whenever zoonoses were diagnosed in pets. Over 90% of the pet owners indicated that veterinarians should discuss zoonoses with them. Further investigations are necessary to determine the current prevalence of intestinal nematode infections in dogs and cats in the various regions of the country.