Multimodeling approach to evaluating the efficacy of layering pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions for influenza pandemics.

When an influenza pandemic emerges, temporary school closures and antiviral treatment may slow virus spread, reduce the overall disease burden, and provide time for vaccine development, distribution, and administration while keeping a larger portion of the general population infection free. The impact of such measures will depend on the transmissibility and severity of the virus and the timing and extent of their implementation. To provide robust assessments of layered pandemic intervention strategies, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded a network of academic groups to build a framework for the development and comparison of multiple pandemic influenza models. Research teams from Columbia University, Imperial College London/Princeton University, Northeastern University, the University of Texas at Austin/Yale University, and the University of Virginia independently modeled three prescribed sets of pandemic influenza scenarios developed collaboratively by the CDC and network members. Results provided by the groups were aggregated into a mean-based ensemble. The ensemble and most component models agreed on the ranking of the most and least effective intervention strategies by impact but not on the magnitude of those impacts. In the scenarios evaluated, vaccination alone, due to the time needed for development, approval, and deployment, would not be expected to substantially reduce the numbers of illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths that would occur. Only strategies that included early implementation of school closure were found to substantially mitigate early spread and allow time for vaccines to be developed and administered, especially under a highly transmissible pandemic scenario.

Using real-time data to guide decision-making during an influenza pandemic: A modelling analysis.

Influenza pandemics typically occur in multiple waves of infection, often associated with initial emergence of a novel virus, followed (in temperate regions) by a resurgence accompanying the onset of the annual influenza season. Here, we examined whether data collected from an initial pandemic wave could be informative, for the need to implement non-pharmaceutical measures in any resurgent wave. Drawing from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in 10 states in the USA, we calibrated simple mathematical models of influenza transmission dynamics to data for laboratory confirmed hospitalisations during the initial 'spring' wave. We then projected pandemic outcomes (cumulative hospitalisations) during the fall wave, and compared these projections with data. Model results showed reasonable agreement for all states that reported a substantial number of cases in the spring wave. Using this model we propose a probabilistic decision framework that can be used to determine the need for preemptive measures such as postponing school openings, in advance of a fall wave. This work illustrates how model-based evidence synthesis, in real-time during an early pandemic wave, could be used to inform timely decisions for pandemic response.

Applications of Bacteria Decorated with Synthetic DNA Constructs.

The advent of DNA nanotechnology has revolutionized the way DNA has been perceived. Rather than considering it as the genetic material alone, DNA has emerged as a versatile synthetic scaffold that can be used to create a variety of molecular architectures. Modifying such self-assembled structures with bio-molecular recognition elements has further expanded the scope of DNA nanotechnology, opening up avenues for using synthetic DNA assemblies to sense or regulate biological molecules. Recent advancements in this field have lead to the creation of DNA structures that can be used to modify bacterial cell surfaces and endow the bacteria with new properties. This mini-review focuses on the ways by which synthetic modification of bacterial cell surfaces with DNA constructs can expand the natural functions of bacteria, enabling their potential use in various fields such as material engineering, bio-sensing, and therapy. The challenges and prospects for future advancements in this field are also discussed.

Insights into the Mechanism of Aluminum-Catalyzed Halodefluorination.

Aluminum has been reported to catalyze halodefluorination reactions, where aliphatic fluorine is substituted with a heavier halogen. Although it is known that stoichiometric aluminum halide can perform this reaction, the role of catalytic aluminum halide and organyl alane reagents is not well understood. We investigate the mechanism of the halodefluorination reaction using catalytic aluminum halide and stoichiometric trimethylsilyl halide. We explore the use of B(C6F5)3 as a catalyst to benchmark pathways where aluminum acts either as a Lewis acid catalyst in cooperation with trimethylsilyl halide or as an independent halodefluorination reagent which is subsequently regenerated by trimethylsilyl halide. Computational and experimental results indicate that aluminum acts as an independent halodefluorination reagent and that reactivity trends observed between different halide reagents can be attributed to relative barriers in halide delivery to the organic fragment, which is the rate-limiting step in both the aluminum halide- and B(C6F5)3-catalyzed pathways.

Cruise Ship Travel in the Era of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Summary of Outbreaks and a Model of Public Health Interventions.

BACKGROUND: Cruise travel contributed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission when there were relatively few cases in the United States. By 14 March 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a No Sail Order suspending US cruise operations; the last US passenger ship docked on 16 April. METHODS: We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks on cruises in US waters or carrying US citizens and used regression models to compare voyage characteristics. We used compartmental models to simulate the potential impact of 4 interventions (screening for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) symptoms; viral testing on 2 days and isolation of positive persons; reduction of passengers by 40%, crew by 20%, and reducing port visits to 1) for 7-day and 14-day voyages. RESULTS: During 19 January to 16 April 2020, 89 voyages on 70 ships had known SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks; 16 ships had recurrent outbreaks. There were 1669 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections and 29 confirmed deaths. Longer voyages were associated with more cases (adjusted incidence rate ratio, 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03-1.17, P < .003). Mathematical models showed that 7-day voyages had about 70% fewer cases than 14-day voyages. On 7-day voyages, the most effective interventions were reducing the number of individuals onboard (43.3% reduction in total infections) and testing passengers and crew (42% reduction in total infections). All four interventions reduced transmission by 80.1%, but no single intervention or combination eliminated transmission. Results were similar for 14-day voyages. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks on cruises were common during January-April 2020. Despite all interventions modeled, cruise travel still poses a significant SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk.

Site-Specific Labeling of Endogenous Proteins Using CoLDR Chemistry.

Chemical modifications of native proteins can affect their stability, activity, interactions, localization, and more. However, there are few nongenetic methods for the installation of chemical modifications at a specific protein site in cells. Here we report a covalent ligand directed release (CoLDR) site-specific labeling strategy, which enables the installation of a variety of functional tags on a target protein while releasing the directing ligand. Using this approach, we were able to label various proteins such as BTK, K-RasG12C, and SARS-CoV-2 PLpro with different tags. For BTK we have shown selective labeling in cells of both alkyne and fluorophores tags. Protein labeling by traditional affinity methods often inhibits protein activity since the directing ligand permanently occupies the target binding pocket. We have shown that using CoLDR chemistry, modification of BTK by these probes in cells preserves its activity. We demonstrated several applications for this approach including determining the half-life of BTK in its native environment with minimal perturbation, as well as quantification of BTK degradation by a noncovalent proteolysis targeting chimera (PROTAC) by in-gel fluorescence. Using an environment-sensitive "turn-on" fluorescent probe, we were able to monitor ligand binding to the active site of BTK. Finally, we have demonstrated efficient CoLDR-based BTK PROTACs (DC50 < 100 nM), which installed a CRBN binder onto BTK. This approach joins very few available labeling strategies that maintain the target protein activity and thus makes an important addition to the toolbox of chemical biology.

HIV and Sexually Transmitted Infection Epidemic Potential of Networks of Men Who Have Sex With Men in Two Cities.

BACKGROUND: The speed with which a pathogen circulates in a sexual network is a function of network connectivity. Cross-sectional connectivity is a function of network features like momentary degree and assortative mixing. Temporal connectivity is driven by partner acquisition rates. The forward-reachable path (FRP) has been proposed as a summary measure of these two aspects of transmission potential. We use empirical data from San Francisco and Atlanta to estimate the generative parameters of the FRP and compare results to the HIV/sexually transmitted infection epidemics in each city. METHODS: We used temporal exponential random graph models to estimate the generative parameters for each city's dynamic sexual network from survey data. We then simulated stochastic dynamic networks from the fitted models and calculated the FRP for each realization, overall, and stratified by partnership type and demographics. RESULTS: The overall mean and median paths were higher in San Francisco than in Atlanta. The overall paths for each city were greater than the sum of the paths in each individual partnership network. In the casual partnership network, the mean path was highest in the youngest age group and lowest in the oldest age group, despite the fact that the youngest group had the lowest mean momentary degree and past-year partner counts. CONCLUSIONS: The FRP by age group revealed the additional utility of the measure beyond the temporal and cross-sectional network connectivity measures. Other nonnetwork factors are still necessary to infer total epidemic potential for any specific pathogen.

Effects of Influenza Vaccination in the United States During the 2018-2019 Influenza Season.

BACKGROUND: Multivalent influenza vaccine products provide protection against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), and B lineage viruses. The 2018-2019 influenza season in the United States included prolonged circulation of A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses well-matched to the vaccine strain and A(H3N2) viruses, the majority of which were mismatched to the vaccine. We estimated the number of vaccine-prevented influenza-associated illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths for the season. METHODS: We used a mathematical model and Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate numbers and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) of influenza-associated outcomes prevented by vaccination in the United States. The model incorporated age-specific estimates of national 2018-2019 influenza vaccine coverage, influenza virus-specific vaccine effectiveness from the US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network, and disease burden estimated from population-based rates of influenza-associated hospitalizations through the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network. RESULTS: Influenza vaccination prevented an estimated 4.4 million (95%UI, 3.4 million-7.1 million) illnesses, 2.3 million (95%UI, 1.8 million-3.8 million) medical visits, 58 000 (95%UI, 30 000-156 000) hospitalizations, and 3500 (95%UI, 1000-13 000) deaths due to influenza viruses during the US 2018-2019 influenza season. Vaccination prevented 14% of projected hospitalizations associated with A(H1N1)pdm09 overall and 43% among children aged 6 months-4 years. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza vaccination averted substantial influenza-associated disease including hospitalizations and deaths in the United States, primarily due to effectiveness against A(H1N1)pdm09. Our findings underscore the value of influenza vaccination, highlighting that vaccines measurably decrease illness and associated healthcare utilization even in a season in which a vaccine component does not match to a circulating virus.

Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19.

We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8-6.9 days, serial interval 4.0-7.5 days, and doubling time 2.3-7.4 days. The effective reproductive number varied widely, with reductions attributable to interventions. Case burden and infection fatality ratios increased with patient age. Implementation of combined interventions could reduce cases and delay epidemic peak up to 1 month. These parameters for transmission, disease severity, and intervention effectiveness are critical for guiding policy decisions. Estimates will likely change as new information becomes available.

Encrypting messages with artificial bacterial receptors.

A method for encrypting messages using engineered bacteria and different fluorescently labeled synthetic receptors is described. We show that the binding of DNA-based artificial receptors to E. coli expressing His-tagged outer membrane protein C (His-OmpC) induces a Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) between the dyes, which results in the generation of a unique fluorescence fingerprint. Because the bacteria continuously divide, the emission pattern generated by the modified bacteria dynamically changes, enabling the system to produce encryption keys that change with time. Thus, this development indicates the potential contribution of live-cell-based encryption systems to the emerging area of information protection at the molecular level.

Nucleophilic Substitution of Aliphatic Fluorides via Pseudohalide Intermediates.

A method for aliphatic fluoride functionalization with a variety of nucleophiles has been reported. Carbon-fluoride bond cleavage is thermodynamically driven by the use of silylated pseudohalides TMS-OMs or TMS-NTf2 , resulting in the formation of TMS-F and a trapped aliphatic pseudohalide intermediate. The rate of fluoride/pseudohalide exchange and the stability of this intermediate are such that little rearrangement is observed for terminal fluoride positions in linear aliphatic fluorides. The ability to convert organofluoride positions into pseudohalide groups allows facile nucleophilic attack by a wide range of nucleophiles. The late introduction of the nucleophiles also allows for a wide range of functional-group tolerance in the coupling partners. Selective alkyl fluoride mesylation is observed in the presence of other alkyl halides, allowing for orthogonal synthetic strategies.

Bacterial Sexually Transmitted Infection Screening Rates by Symptomatic Status Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in the United States: A Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Prevention of bacterial sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among men who have sex with men (MSM) requires timely disease detection, but this is complicated by asymptomatic infection. We estimated screening/testing rates by symptomatic status to evaluate adherence to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention STI screening guidelines. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study of 2572 US MSM aged 15 to 65 years in 2017 to 2018, we measured the reported number of asymptomatic STI screens in the past 2 years versus tests prompted by disease symptoms. Using negative binominal regression within a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we estimated yearly rates of asymptomatic screening and symptomatic testing by geographic, demographic, and behavioral factors. RESULTS: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status was most strongly associated with all testing/screening frequency (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.72; 95% credible interval [Crl], 1.49, 1.97). The HIV-uninfected MSM had 0.14 (95% credible interval [CrI], 0.12-0.17) symptomatic tests and 0.88 (95% CrI, 0.77-1.01) asymptomatic screens per year. The HIV-infected MSM had 0.25 (95% CrI, 0.18-0.35) symptomatic tests and 1.53 (95% CrI, 1.24-1.88) asymptomatic screens per year. Rates of asymptomatic screening were higher among black compared with white MSM (IRR, 1.41; 95% CrI, 1.15-1.73), but weakly associated with number of past-year sexual partners (IRR, 1.01; 95% CrI, 1.00-1.01). Overall, 85% to 90% of diagnostic events were asymptomatic screens. CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported rates of STI screening were close to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's recommended overall annual screening frequency, but with gaps defined by demographics and behavioral risk. Targeted screening efforts may be indicated specifically for younger MSM and those with multiple partners.

Recent methods for the synthesis of α-acyloxy ketones.

The present review provides a broad description of the methods reported for the synthesis of α-acyloxy ketones and some of their derivatives. α-Acyloxy ketones and their derivatives are vital synthetic intermediates and are ubiquitous as biochemical constituents of living organisms, biologically active natural products and pharmaceuticals. Due to their biological importance, new methods for their synthesis are being continuously developed and documented in the recent past. However, the chemical literature lacks a comprehensive summary on the synthetic methodologies targeting α-acyloxy ketones. In an attempt to fill this void, this review discusses their synthetic procedures developed over time. The synthetic approaches are systematically classified based on the substrates used. The mechanistic details for certain critical cases are also discussed. In the past, preparation of α-acyloxy ketones was reported from functionalized ketones like α-haloketones and diazo esters. Later on, among the reactions that formed the acyloxy ketones, oxidative coupling of ketones with carboxylic acids both under metal and metal-free conditions made their synthesis simple and versatile. Specifically, in the last decade, many oxidative coupling reactions emerged as a powerful tool for the synthesis of α-acyloxy ketones. Quite recently, acyloxy ketones' synthesis has been reported from commercially available alkenes and alkynes through oxidative addition reactions. Subsequently, the mechanistic details for these coupling reactions became interesting to many organic chemists. The asymmetric version of the title compounds hails from their enzymatic resolution to metal catalysed chiral synthesis. Besides, the synthesis of acyloxy ketones from epoxides, alcohols and enamides using various oxidative reagents has also been documented.

I2-mediated regioselective C-3 azidation of indoles.

An unprecedented synthesis of novel 3-azido indoles has been developed using I2 and NaN3 in high yields and excellent regioselectivity. The reaction proceeds under metal-free conditions at room temperature. Essentially, an umpolung in reactivity at the C-3 position of indole has been achieved by the activation of indoles with I2.

N-Heterocyclic Carbene Catalyzed Oxidative Coupling of Alkenes/α-Bromoacetophenones with Aldehydes: A Facile Entry to α,ß-Epoxy Ketones.

A novel, N-heterocyclic carbene (NHC) catalyzed direct oxidative coupling of styrenes with aldehydes has been described for the synthesis of α,ß-epoxy ketones in good yields. This unprecedented regioselective oxidative coupling employs NBS/DBU/DMSO (DBU=1,8-diazabicyclo [5.4. 0] undec-7-ene, DMSO=dimethylsulfoxide, NBS=N-bromosuccinimide) as an oxidative system at ambient conditions. Additionally, first NHC-catalyzed Darzens reaction of α-bromoketones and aldehydes under mild reaction conditions has also been described. Interestingly, mechanistic studies have revealed the preferred reactivity of NHC with alkene/α-bromoketone rather than aldehydes, thus proceeding via the ketodeoxy Breslow intermediate.

CuCN-mediated cascade cyclization of 4-(2-bromophenyl)-2-butenoates: a high-yield synthesis of substituted naphthalene amino esters.

A new method of CuCN-mediated one-pot cyclization of 4-(2-bromophenyl)-2-butenoates leading to efficient synthesis of substituted naphthalene amino esters including phenanthrene aromatic structural units is described. Deuterium labeling studies establish that this one-pot cascade cyclization proceeds through isomerization of olefin, intramolecular C-C bond cyclization, and aromatization as the key intermediates, all occurring in a single step.

Chemically programmable bacterial probes for the recognition of cell surface proteins.

Common methods to label cell surface proteins (CSPs) involve the use of fluorescently modified antibodies (Abs) or small-molecule-based ligands. However, optimizing the labeling efficiency of such systems, for example, by modifying them with additional fluorophores or recognition elements, is challenging. Herein we show that effective labeling of CSPs overexpressed in cancer cells and tissues can be obtained with fluorescent probes based on chemically modified bacteria. The bacterial probes (B-probes) are generated by non-covalently linking a bacterial membrane protein to DNA duplexes appended with fluorophores and small-molecule binders of CSPs overexpressed in cancer cells. We show that B-probes are exceptionally simple to prepare and modify because they are generated from self-assembled and easily synthesized components, such as self-replicating bacterial scaffolds and DNA constructs that can be readily appended, at well-defined positions, with various types of dyes and CSP binders. This structural programmability enabled us to create B-probes that can label different types of cancer cells with distinct colors, as well as generate very bright B-probes in which the multiple dyes are spatially separated along the DNA scaffold to avoid self-quenching. This enhancement in the emission signal enabled us to label the cancer cells with greater sensitivity and follow the internalization of the B-probes into these cells. The potential to apply the design principles underlying B-probes in therapy or inhibitor screening is also discussed here.

Evaluation of different types of face masks to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2: a modeling study.

We expanded a published mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with complex, age-structured transmission and with laboratory-derived source and wearer protection efficacy estimates for a variety of face masks to estimate their impact on COVID-19 incidence and related mortality in the United States. The model was also improved to allow realistic age-structured transmission with a pre-specified R0 of transmission, and to include more compartments and parameters, e.g. for groups such as detected and undetected asymptomatic infectious cases who mask up at different rates. When masks are used at typically-observed population rates of 80% for those ≥ 65 years and 60% for those < 65 years, face masks are associated with 69% (cloth) to 78% (medical procedure mask) reductions in cumulative COVID-19 infections and 82% (cloth) to 87% (medical procedure mask) reductions in related deaths over a 6-month timeline in the model, assuming a basic reproductive number of 2.5. If cloth or medical procedure masks' source control and wearer protection efficacies are boosted about 30% each to 84% and 60% by cloth over medical procedure masking, fitters, or braces, the COVID-19 basic reproductive number of 2.5 could be reduced to an effective reproductive number ≤ 1.0, and from 6.0 to 2.3 for a variant of concern similar to delta (B.1.617.2). For variants of concern similar to omicron (B.1.1.529) or the sub-lineage BA.2, modeled reductions in effective reproduction number due to similar high quality, high prevalence mask wearing is more modest (to 3.9 and 5.0 from an R0 = 10.0 and 13.0, respectively). None-the-less, the ratio of incident risk for masked vs. non-masked populations still shows a benefit of wearing masks even with the higher R0 variants.

Modeling strategies for the allocation of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in the United States.

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended phased allocation of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in December 2020. To support the development of this guidance, we used a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to evaluate the relative impact of three vaccine allocation strategies on infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. All three strategies initially prioritized healthcare personnel (HCP) for vaccination. Strategies of subsequently prioritizing adults aged ≥65 years, or a combination of essential workers and adults aged ≥75 years, prevented the most deaths. Meanwhile, prioritizing adults with high-risk medical conditions immediately after HCP prevented the most infections. All three strategies prevented a similar fraction of hospitalizations. While no model is capable of fully capturing the complex social dynamics which shape epidemics, exercises such as this one can be a useful way for policy makers to formalize their assumptions and explore the key features of a problem before making decisions.

Association between HIV PrEP indications and use in a national sexual network study of US men who have sex with men.

INTRODUCTION: HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is effective in preventing HIV transmission. United States Public Health Service (USPHS) clinical practice guidelines define biobehavioral indications for initiation. To assess guideline implementation, it is critical to quantify PrEP nonusers who are indicated and PrEP users who are not indicated. We sought to estimate current PrEP use among US men who have sex with men (MSM), characterize whether their PrEP use aligned with their current indications for PrEP, and assess whether the association between PrEP indications and PrEP use differed by demography or geography. METHODS: Using data from a US web-based sexual network study of MSM between 2017 and 2019, we measured PrEP usage and assessed whether respondents met indications for PrEP. Log-binomial regression was used to estimate the relationship between PrEP indications and PrEP use, with adjustment for geography, age and race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Of 3508 sexually active, HIV-negative MSM, 34% met indications for PrEP. The proportion with current PrEP use was 32% among MSM meeting indications and 11% among those without indications. Nearly 40% of those currently using PrEP did not meet indications for PrEP, and 68% of MSM with indications for PrEP were not currently using PrEP. After adjusting for geography and demographics, MSM with PrEP indications were about three times as likely to be currently using PrEP. This association varied slightly, but not significantly, by geographic region, age and race/ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Indications for PrEP strongly predicted current PrEP use among US MSM. However, we identified substantial misalignment between indications and use in both directions (indicated MSM who were not benefitting from PrEP, and MSM taking PrEP while not presently being indicated). PrEP underuse by those at greatest risk for HIV acquisition may limit the projected impact of PrEP implementation, despite reported increases in PrEP provision. This calls for further implementation efforts to improve PrEP delivery to those most in need during periods of elevated sexual risk and to close the gap between indications and uptake.