A US payer perspective health economic model assessing value of monitoring disease activity to inform discontinuation and re-initiation of DMT in multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: We evaluate the potential clinical and cost impacts of discontinuing disease-modifying therapy (DMT) in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) when age-related immunosenescence can reduce DMT efficacy while increasing associated risks. METHODS: A Markov model simulated clinical and cost impacts to the patient and payers when a proportion of eligible patients with relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) discontinue DMT. Eligibility was defined as age >55 years, an RRMS diagnosis of >5 years, and no history of relapses for 5 years. Increasing the proportion of eligible patients willing to discontinue therapy was also modeled. Clinical and cost inputs were from published literature. RESULTS: Difference in EDSS progression between eligible patients who did and did not attempt discontinuation was not significant. After 1 year of eligibility, per-patient costs were $96k lower in the cohort that attempted discontinuation; however a higher proportion of relapses were seen in this group. When the proportion of patients willing to discontinue DMT increased, clinical findings remained consistent while the average cost per patient decreased. CONCLUSION: While there are increased clinical and cost benefits as more eligible patients attempt discontinuation, the risk of relapses can increase. Timely disease monitoring is required to manage safe DMT discontinuation.

Association between serum multi-protein biomarker profile and real-world disability in multiple sclerosis.

Few studies examined blood biomarkers informative of patient-reported outcome (PRO) of disability in people with multiple sclerosis (MS). We examined the associations between serum multi-protein biomarker profiles and patient-reported MS disability. In this cross-sectional study (2017-2020), adults with diagnosis of MS (or precursors) from two independent clinic-based cohorts were divided into a training and test set. For predictors, we examined seven clinical factors (age at sample collection, sex, race/ethnicity, disease subtype, disease duration, disease-modifying therapy [DMT], and time interval between sample collection and closest PRO assessment) and 19 serum protein biomarkers potentially associated with MS disease activity endpoints identified from prior studies. We trained machine learning (ML) models (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression [LASSO], Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machines, stacking ensemble learning, and stacking classification) for predicting Patient Determined Disease Steps (PDDS) score as the primary endpoint and reported model performance using the held-out test set. The study included 431 participants (mean age 49 years, 81% women, 94% non-Hispanic White). For binary PDDS score, combined feature input of routine clinical factors and the 19 proteins consistently outperformed base models (comprising clinical features alone or clinical features plus one single protein at a time) in predicting severe (PDDS ≥ 4) versus mild/moderate (PDDS < 4) disability across multiple machine learning approaches, with LASSO achieving the best area under the curve (AUCPDDS = 0.91) and other metrics. For ordinal PDDS score, LASSO model comprising combined clinical factors and 19 proteins as feature input (R2PDDS = 0.31) again outperformed base models. The two best-performing LASSO models (i.e., binary and ordinal PDDS score) shared six clinical features (age, sex, race/ethnicity, disease subtype, disease duration, DMT efficacy) and nine proteins (cluster of differentiation 6, CUB-domain-containing protein 1, contactin-2, interleukin-12 subunit-beta, neurofilament light chain [NfL], protogenin, serpin family A member 9, tumor necrosis factor superfamily member 13B, versican). By comparison, LASSO models with clinical features plus one single protein at a time as feature input did not select either NfL or glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) as a final feature. Forcing either NfL or GFAP as a single protein feature into models did not improve performance beyond clinical features alone. Stacking classification model using five functional pathways to represent multiple proteins as meta-features implicated those involved in neuroaxonal integrity as significant contributors to predictive performance. Thus, serum multi-protein biomarker profiles improve the prediction of real-world MS disability status beyond clinical profile alone or clinical profile plus single protein biomarker, reaching clinically actionable performance.

Glial cell injury and atrophied lesion volume as measures of chronic multiple sclerosis inflammation.

BACKGROUND: Atrophied lesion volume (aLV), a proposed biomarker of disability progression in multiple sclerosis (MS) and transition into progressive MS (PMS), depicts chronic periventricular white matter (WM) pathology. Meningeal infiltrates, imaged as leptomeningeal contrast enhancement (LMCE), are linked with greater cortical pathology. OBJECTIVES: To determine the relationship between serum-derived proteomic data with the development of aLV and LMCE in a heterogeneous group of people with MS (pwMS). METHODS: Proteomic and MRI data for 202 pwMS (148 clinically isolated syndrome /relapsing-remitting MS and 54 progressive MS (PMS)) were acquired at baseline and at 5.4-year follow-up. The concentrations of 21 proteins related to multiple MS pathophysiology pathways were derived using a custom-developed Proximity Extension Assay on the Olink™ platform. The accrual of aLV was determined as the volume of baseline T2-weighted lesions that were replaced by cerebrospinal fluid over the follow-up. Regression models and age-adjusted analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) were used. RESULTS: Older age (standardized beta = 0.176, p = 0.022), higher glial fibrillary acidic protein (standardized beta = 0.312, p = 0.001), and lower myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein levels (standardized beta = -0.271, p = 0.002) were associated with accrual of aLV over follow-up. This relationship was driven by the pwPMS population. The presence of LMCE at the follow-up visit was not predicted by any baseline proteomic biomarker nor cross-sectionally associated with any protein concentration. CONCLUSION: Proteomic markers of glial activation are associated with chronic lesional WM pathology (measured as aLV) and may be specific to the progressive MS phenotype. LMCE presence in MS does not appear to relate to proteomic measures.

Serum Biomarker Signatures of Choroid Plexus Volume Changes in Multiple Sclerosis.

Increased choroid plexus (CP) volume has been recently implicated as a potential predictor of worse multiple sclerosis (MS) outcomes. The biomarker signature of CP changes in MS are currently unknown. To determine the blood-based biomarker characteristics of the cross-sectional and longitudinal MRI-based CP changes in a heterogeneous group of people with MS (pwMS), a total of 202 pwMS (148 pwRRMS and 54 pwPMS) underwent MRI examination at baseline and at a 5-year follow-up. The CP was automatically segmented and subsequently refined manually in order to obtain a normalized CP volume. Serum samples were collected at both timepoints, and the concentration of 21 protein measures relevant to MS pathophysiology were determined using the Olink™ platform. Age-, sex-, and BMI-adjusted linear regression models explored the cross-sectional and longitudinal relationships between MRI CP outcomes and blood-based biomarkers. At baseline, there were no significant proteomic predictors of CP volume, while at follow-up, greater CP volume was significantly associated with higher neurofilament light chain levels, NfL (standardized ß = 0.373, p = 0.001), and lower osteopontin levels (standardized ß = -0.23, p = 0.02). Higher baseline GFAP and lower FLRT2 levels were associated with future 5-year CP % volume expansion (standardized ß = 0.277, p = 0.004 and standardized ß = -0.226, p = 0.014, respectively). The CP volume in pwMS is associated with inflammatory blood-based biomarkers of neuronal injury (neurofilament light chain; NfL) and glial activation such as GFAP, osteopontin, and FLRT2. The expansion of the CP may play a central role in chronic and compartmentalized inflammation and may be driven by glial changes.

Proteomic signatures of physical, cognitive, and imaging outcomes in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: A quantitative measurement of serum proteome biomarkers that would associate with disease progression endpoints can provide risk stratification for persons with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) and supplement the clinical decision-making process. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In total, 202 PwMS were enrolled in a longitudinal study with measurements at two time points with an average follow-up time of 5.4 years. Clinical measures included the Expanded Disability Status Scale, Timed 25-foot Walk, 9-Hole Peg, and Symbol Digit Modalities Tests. Subjects underwent magnetic resonance imaging to determine the volumetric measures of the whole brain, gray matter, deep gray matter, and lateral ventricles. Serum samples were analyzed using a custom immunoassay panel on the Olink™ platform, and concentrations of 18 protein biomarkers were measured. Linear mixed-effects models and adjustment for multiple comparisons were performed. RESULTS: Subjects had a significant 55.6% increase in chemokine ligand 20 (9.7 pg/mL vs. 15.1 pg/mL, p < 0.001) and neurofilament light polypeptide (10.5 pg/mL vs. 11.5 pg/mL, p = 0.003) at the follow-up time point. Additional changes in CUB domain-containing protein 1, Contactin 2, Glial fibrillary acidic protein, Myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein, and Osteopontin were noted but did not survive multiple comparison correction. Worse clinical performance in the 9-HPT was associated with neurofilament light polypeptide (p = 0.001). Increases in several biomarker candidates were correlated with greater neurodegenerative changes as measured by different brain volumes. CONCLUSION: Multiple proteins, selected from a disease activity test that represent diverse biological pathways, are associated with physical, cognitive, and radiographic outcomes. Future studies should determine the utility of multiple protein assays in routine clinical care.

Lower arterial cerebral blood flow is associated with worse neuroinflammation and immunomodulation composite proteomic scores.

BACKGROUND: Brain hypoperfusion is linked with worse physical, cognitive and MRI outcomes in multiple sclerosis (MS). Understanding the proteomic signatures related to hypoperfusion could provide insights into the pathophysiological mechanism. METHODS: 140 people with MS (pwMS; 86 clinically isolated syndrome (CIS)/relapsing-remitting (RRMS) and 54 progressive (PMS)) were included. Cerebral arterial blood flow (CABF) was determined using ultrasound Doppler measurement as the sum of blood flow in the bilateral common carotid arteries and vertebral arteries. Proteomic analysis was performed using the Multiple Sclerosis Disease Activity (MSDA) test assay panel performed on the Olink™ platform. The MSDA test measures the concentrations of 18 proteins that are age and sex-adjusted. It utilizes a stacked classifier logistic regression model to determine 4 disease pathway scores (immunomodulation, neuroinflammation, myelin biology, and neuroaxonal integrity) as well as an overall disease activity score (1 to 10). MRI measures of T2 lesion volume (LV) and whole brain volume (WBV) were derived. RESULTS: The pwMS were on average 54 years old and had an average CABF of 951 mL/min. There were no differences in CABF between CIS/RRMS vs. PMS groups. Lower CABF levels were correlated with the overall disease activity score (r = -0.26, p = 0.003) and with the neuroinflammation (r = -0.29, p = 0.001), immunomodulation (r = -0.26, p = 0.003) and neuroaxonal integrity (r = -0.23, p = 0.007) pathway scores. After age and body mass index (BMI)-adjustment, lower CABF remained associated with the neuroinflammatory (r = -0.23, p = 0.011) and immunomodulation (r = -0.20, p = 0.024) pathway scores. The relationship between CABF and the neuroinflammation pathway score remained significant after adjusting for T2-LV and WBV (p = 0.038). Individual analyses identified neurofilament light chain, CCL-20 and TNFSF13B as contributors. When compared to the highest quartile (>1133.5 mL/min), the pwMS in the lowest CABF quartile (<764 mL/min) had greater overall disease activity score (p = 0.003), neuroinflammation (p = 0.001), immunomodulation (p = 0.004) and neuroaxonal integrity pathway scores (p = 0.007). CONCLUSION: Lower cerebral arterial perfusion in MS is associated with changes in neuroinflammatory/immunomodulation pathways and their respective proteomic biomarkers. These findings may suggest a relationship between the hypoperfusion and pro-inflammatory MS changes rather than being merely an epiphenomenon subsequent to lower energy demands.

Inflammatory and neurodegenerative serum protein biomarkers increase sensitivity to detect clinical and radiographic disease activity in multiple sclerosis.

The multifaceted nature of multiple sclerosis requires quantitative biomarkers that can provide insights related to diverse physiological pathways. To this end, proteomic analysis of deeply-phenotyped serum samples, biological pathway modeling, and network analysis were performed to elucidate inflammatory and neurodegenerative processes, identifying sensitive biomarkers of multiple sclerosis disease activity. Here, we evaluated the concentrations of > 1400 serum proteins in 630 samples from three multiple sclerosis cohorts for association with clinical and radiographic new disease activity. Twenty proteins were associated with increased clinical and radiographic multiple sclerosis disease activity for inclusion in a custom assay panel. Serum neurofilament light chain showed the strongest univariate correlation with gadolinium lesion activity, clinical relapse status, and annualized relapse rate. Multivariate modeling outperformed univariate for all endpoints. A comprehensive biomarker panel including the twenty proteins identified in this study could serve to characterize disease activity for a patient with multiple sclerosis.

Complement Activation Is Associated With Disease Severity in Multiple Sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Histopathologic studies have identified immunoglobulin (Ig) deposition and complement activation as contributors of CNS tissue damage in multiple sclerosis (MS). Intrathecal IgM synthesis is associated with higher MS disease activity and severity, and IgM is the strongest complement-activating immunoglobulin. In this study, we investigated whether complement components (CCs) and complement activation products (CAPs) are increased in persons with MS, especially in those with an intrathecal IgM synthesis, and whether they are associated with disease severity and progression. METHODS: CC and CAP levels were quantified in plasma and CSF of 112 patients with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS), 127 patients with MS (90 relapsing-remitting, 14 primary progressive, and 23 secondary progressive), 31 inflammatory neurologic disease, and 44 symptomatic controls from the Basel CSF databank study. Patients with CIS/MS were followed in the Swiss MS cohort study (median 6.3 years). Levels of CC/CAP between diagnosis groups were compared; in CIS/MS, associations of CC/CAP levels with intrathecal Ig synthesis, baseline Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores, MS Severity Score (MSSS), and neurofilament light chain (NfL) levels were investigated by linear regression, adjusted for age, sex, and albumin quotient. RESULTS: CSF (but not plasma) levels of C3a, C4a, Ba, and Bb were increased in patients with CIS/MS, being most pronounced in those with an additional intrathecal IgM production. In CIS, doubling of C3a and C4a in CSF was associated with 0.31 (CI 0.06-0.56; p = 0.016) and 0.32 (0.02-0.62; p = 0.041) increased EDSS scores at lumbar puncture. Similarly, doubling of C3a and Ba in CIS/MS was associated with 0.61 (0.19-1.03; p < 0.01) and 0.74 (0.18-1.31; p = 0.016) increased future MSSS. In CIS/MS, CSF levels of C3a, C4a, Ba, and Bb were associated with increased CSF NfL levels, e.g., doubling of C3a was associated with an increase of 58% (Est. 1.58; CI 1.37-1.81; p < 0.0001). DISCUSSION: CNS-compartmentalized activation of the classical and alternative pathways of complement is increased in CIS/MS and associated with the presence of an intrathecal IgM production. Increased complement activation within the CSF correlates with EDSS, future MSSS, and NfL levels, supporting the concept that complement activation contributes to MS pathology and disease progression. Complement inhibition should be explored as therapeutic target to attenuate disease severity and progression in MS.