Autoantibodies against chemokines post-SARS-CoV-2 infection correlate with disease course.

Infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 associates with diverse symptoms, which can persist for months. While antiviral antibodies are protective, those targeting interferons and other immune factors are associated with adverse coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes. Here we discovered that antibodies against specific chemokines were omnipresent post-COVID-19, were associated with favorable disease outcome and negatively correlated with the development of long COVID at 1 yr post-infection. Chemokine antibodies were also present in HIV-1 infection and autoimmune disorders, but they targeted different chemokines compared with COVID-19. Monoclonal antibodies derived from COVID-19 convalescents that bound to the chemokine N-loop impaired cell migration. Given the role of chemokines in orchestrating immune cell trafficking, naturally arising chemokine antibodies may modulate the inflammatory response and thus bear therapeutic potential.

Genetic diversity from proviral DNA as a proxy for time since HIV-1 infection.

HIV-1 RNA genetic diversity predicts time since infection which is important for clinical care and research. It's unclear, however, whether proviral DNA genetic diversity sampled under suppressive antiretroviral therapy can be used for this purpose. We tested whether proviral genetic diversity from NGS sequences predicts time since infection and recency in 221 people with HIV-1 with known infection time. Proviral diversity was significantly associated with time since infection (p<5*10-07, R2 up to 25%) and predictive of treatment initiation during recent infection (AUC-ROC up to 0.85). This shows the utility of proviral genetic diversity as a proxy for time since infection.

Circulating HBV RNA and hepatitis B core-related antigen trajectories in persons with HIV/HBV coinfection and HBsAg loss on tenofovir therapy.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated long-term trajectories of circulating hepatitis B virus (HBV)-RNA and hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) in persons with and without hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) loss during tenofovir therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: We included 29 persons with HIV (PWH) with HBsAg loss and 29 matched PWH without loss. We compared HBV-RNA and HBcrAg decline and assessed the cumulative proportions with undetectable HBV-RNA and HBcrAg levels during tenofovir therapy using Kaplan-Meier estimates. RESULTS: HBsAg loss occurred after a median of 4 years (IQR 1 - 8). All participants with HBsAg loss achieved suppressed HBV-DNA and undetectable HBV-RNA preceding undetectable qHBsAg levels, whereas 79% achieved negative HBcrAg. In comparison, 79% of the participants without HBsAg loss achieved undetectable HBV-RNA and 48% negative HBcrAg. After two years on tenofovir, an HBV RNA decline ≥1 log10 copies/ml had 100% sensitivity and 36.4% specificity for HBsAg loss, whereas an HBcrAg decline ≥1 log10 U/ml had 91.0% sensitivity and 64.5% specificity. CONCLUSIONS: HBV-RNA suppression preceded undetectable qHBsAg levels, and had high sensitivity but low specificity for HBsAg loss during tenofovir therapy in PWH. HBcrAg remained detectable in approximately 20% of persons with, and 50% of persons without HBsAg loss.

Deciphering factors linked with reduced SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Factors influencing susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 remain to be resolved. Using data of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) on 6,270 people with HIV (PWH) and serologic assessment for SARS-CoV-2 and circulating-human-coronavirus (HCoV) antibodies, we investigated the association of HIV-related and general parameters with SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 PCR-tests, COVID-19 related hospitalizations, and deaths reported to the SHCS between January 1, 2020 and December 31, 2021. Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 and HCoVs were determined in pre-pandemic (2019) and pandemic (2020) bio-banked plasma and compared to HIV-negative individuals. We applied logistic regression, conditional logistic regression, and Bayesian multivariate regression to identify determinants of SARS-CoV-2 infection and Ab responses to SARS-CoV-2 in PWH. RESULTS: No HIV-1-related factors were associated with SARS-CoV-2 acquisition. High pre-pandemic HCoV antibodies were associated with a lower risk of subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection and with higher SARS-CoV-2 antibody responses upon infection. We observed a robust protective effect of smoking on SARS-CoV-2-infection risk (aOR= 0.46 [0.38,0.56], p=2.6*10-14), which occurred even in previous smokers, and was highest for heavy smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings of two independent protective factors, smoking and HCoV antibodies, both affecting the respiratory environment, underscore the importance of the local immune milieu in regulating susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2.

Antibody and T-cell response to bivalent booster SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in people with compromised immune function (COVERALL-3).

BACKGROUND: Bivalent mRNA vaccines, designed to combat emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants, incorporate ancestral strains and a new variant. Our study assessed the immune response in previously vaccinated individuals of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) and the Swiss Transplant Cohort Study (STCS) following bivalent mRNA vaccination. METHODS: Eligible SHCS and STCS participants received approved bivalent mRNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccines (mRNA-1273.214 or BA.1-adapted BNT162b2) within clinical routine. Blood samples were collected at baseline, 4 weeks, 8 weeks, and 6 months post vaccination. We analyzed the proportion of participants with anti-spike protein antibody response ≥1642 units/ml (indicating protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection), and in a subsample T-cell response (including mean concentrations), stratifying results by cohorts and population characteristics. RESULTS: In SHCS participants, baseline anti-spike antibody concentrations ≥1642 were observed in 87% (96/112), reaching nearly 100% at follow-ups. Among STCS participants, 58% (35/60) had baseline antibodies ≥1642, increasing to 80% at 6 months. Except for lung transplant recipients, all participants showed a five-fold increase in geometric mean antibody concentrations at 4 weeks and a reduction by half at 6 months. At baseline, T-cell responses were positive in 96% (26/27) of SHCS participants and 36% (16/45) of STCS participants (moderate increase to 53% at 6 months). Few participants reported SARS-CoV-2 infections, side-effects, or serious adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: Bivalent mRNA vaccination elicited a robust humoral response in individuals with HIV or solid organ transplants, with delayed responses in lung transplant recipients. Despite a waning effect, antibody levels remained high at 6 months and adverse events were rare.

Long-term quantitative hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) trajectories in persons with and without HBsAg loss on tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVES: Improving the understanding of the patterns of quantitative hepatitis B surface antigen (qHBsAg) trajectories associated with HBsAg loss is important in light of novel anti-hepatitis B virus agents being developed. We evaluated long-term qHBsAg trajectories in persons with HIV and HBV during tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: We included 29 participants with and 29 without HBsAg loss, defined as qHBsAg <0.05 IU/mL. We assessed qHBsAg decline during therapy in both groups and used agglomerative hierarchical clustering to identify different qHBsAg trajectory profiles in persons with HBsAg loss. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 11.9 years (IQR 8.4-14.1), and the median time to HBsAg loss was 48 months (IQR 12-96). Among participants with HBsAg loss, 79% had a qHBsAg decline ≥1 log10 IU/mL 2 years after starting tenofovir. The trajectories in qHBsAg levels during tenofovir therapy were heterogeneous, characterized by five distinct profiles. Among participants without HBsAg loss, only 7% had a qHBsAg decline ≥1 log10 IU/ml after 2 years. CONCLUSIONS: Most persons with HIV who experienced HBsAg loss had an early decline in qHBsAg levels, with diverse trajectories during long-term tenofovir therapy. In persons without HBsAg loss, qHBsAg levels remained remarkably stable over time.

Long-term trends in hepatitis C prevalence, treatment uptake and liver-related events in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Treatment for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections changed dramatically in the last decade. We assessed changes in the prevalence of replicating HCV infection, treatment uptake and liver-related morbidity and mortality in persons with HIV (PWH) and hepatitis C in the Swiss HIV cohort study. METHODS: We included all cohort participants between 2002 and 2021. We assessed yearly prevalence of replicating HCV infection, overall and liver-related mortality, as well as the yearly incidence of liver-related events in persons with at least one documented positive HCV-RNA. RESULTS: Of 14 652 participants under follow-up, 2294 had at least one positive HCV-RNA measurement. Of those, 1316 (57%) ever received an HCV treatment. Treatment uptake increased from 8.1% in 2002 to a maximum of 32.6% in 2016. Overall, prevalence of replicating HCV infection declined from 16.5% in 2004 to 1.3% in 2021. HCV prevalence declined from 63.2% to 7.1% in persons who inject drugs, and from 4.1% to 0.6% in men who have sex with men. Among the 2294 persons with replicating HCV infection, overall mortality declined from a maximum of 3.3 per 100 patient-years (PY) to 1.1 per 100 PY, and incidence of liver-related events decreased from 1.4/100 PY to 0.2/100 PY. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of DAA therapy was associated with a more than 10-fold reduction in prevalence of replicating HCV infection in PWH, approaching the estimates in the general population. Overall mortality and liver-related events declined substantially in persons living with HIV and hepatitis C.

Tracing HIV-1 strains that imprint broadly neutralizing antibody responses.

Understanding the determinants of broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) evolution is crucial for the development of bNAb-based HIV vaccines1. Despite emerging information on cofactors that promote bNAb evolution in natural HIV-1 infections, in which the induction of bNAbs is genuinely rare2, information on the impact of the infecting virus strain on determining the breadth and specificity of the antibody responses to HIV-1 is lacking. Here we analyse the influence of viral antigens in shaping antibody responses in humans. We call the ability of a virus strain to induce similar antibody responses across different hosts its antibody-imprinting capacity, which from an evolutionary biology perspective corresponds to the viral heritability of the antibody responses. Analysis of 53 measured parameters of HIV-1-binding and neutralizing antibody responses in a cohort of 303 HIV-1 transmission pairs (individuals who harboured highly related HIV-1 strains and were putative direct transmission partners or members of an HIV-1 transmission chain) revealed that the effect of the infecting virus on the outcome of the bNAb response is moderate in magnitude but highly significant. We introduce the concept of bNAb-imprinting viruses and provide evidence for the existence of such viruses in a systematic screening of our cohort. The bNAb-imprinting capacity can be substantial, as indicated by a transmission pair with highly similar HIV-1 antibody responses and strong bNAb activity. Identification of viruses that have bNAb-imprinting capacities and their characterization may thus provide the potential to develop lead immunogens.

Triggers of Change in Sexual Behavior Among People With HIV: The Swiss U U Statement and COVID-19 Compared.

We assessed changes in sexual behavior among people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) over 20 years. Condom use with stable partners steadily declined from over 90 to 29 since the Swiss U U statement, with similar trajectories between men who have sex with men (MSM) and heterosexuals. Occasional partnership remained higher among MSM compared to heterosexuals even during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) social distancing.

Quantifying and Predicting Ongoing Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Transmission Dynamics in Switzerland Using a Distance-Based Clustering Approach.

BACKGROUND: Despite effective prevention approaches, ongoing human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) transmission remains a public health concern indicating a need for identifying its drivers. METHODS: We combined a network-based clustering method using evolutionary distances between viral sequences with statistical learning approaches to investigate the dynamics of HIV transmission in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and to predict the drivers of ongoing transmission. RESULTS: We found that only a minority of clusters and patients acquired links to new infections between 2007 and 2020. While the growth of clusters and the probability of individual patients acquiring new links in the transmission network was associated with epidemiological, behavioral, and virological predictors, the strength of these associations decreased substantially when adjusting for network characteristics. Thus, these network characteristics can capture major heterogeneities beyond classical epidemiological parameters. When modeling the probability of a newly diagnosed patient being linked with future infections, we found that the best predictive performance (median area under the curve receiver operating characteristic AUCROC = 0.77) was achieved by models including characteristics of the network as predictors and that models excluding them performed substantially worse (median AUCROC = 0.54). CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight the utility of molecular epidemiology-based network approaches for analyzing and predicting ongoing HIV transmission dynamics. This approach may serve for real-time prospective assessment of HIV transmission.

Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) Replication During Tenofovir Therapy Is Frequent in Human Immunodeficiency Virus/HBV Coinfection.

In the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, 61 of 222 (27%) HIV-suppressed persons with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection had HBV replication after 2 years on tenofovir, of whom 77% were suppressed thereafter. Self-reported adherence to therapy and HBV viral load at tenofovir initiation were predictors of persistent replication.

Impact of Integrase Inhibitors on Cardiovascular Disease Events in People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Starting Antiretroviral Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) have been associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. We investigated the impact of starting INSTI-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) on CVD events among treatment-naïve people with human immunodeficiency virus using a target trial framework, which reduces the potential for confounding and selection bias. METHODS: We included Swiss HIV Cohort Study participants who were ART-naïve after May 2008, when INSTIs became available in Switzerland. Individuals were categorized according to their first ART regimen (INSTI vs other ART) and were followed from ART start until the first of CVD event (myocardial infarction, stroke, or invasive cardiovascular procedure), loss to follow-up, death, or last cohort visit. We calculated hazard ratios and risk differences using pooled logistic regression models with inverse probability of treatment and censoring weights. RESULTS: Of 5362 participants (median age 38 years, 21% women, 15% of African origin), 1837 (34.3%) started INSTI-based ART, and 3525 (65.7%) started other ART. Within 4.9 years (interquartile range, 2.4-7.4), 116 CVD events occurred. Starting INSTI-based ART was not associated with an increased risk for CVD events (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], .46-1.39). Adjusted risk differences between individuals who started INSTIs and those who started other ART were -0.17% (95% CI, -.37 to .19) after 1 year, -0.61% (-1.54 to 0.22) after 5 years, and -0.71% (-2.16 to 0.94) after 8 years. CONCLUSIONS: In this target trial emulation, we found no difference in short- or long-term risk for CVD events between treatment-naïve people with human immunodeficiency virus who started INSTI-based ART and those on other ART.

A Phylogeny-aware GWAS Framework to Correct for Heritable Pathogen Effects on Infectious Disease Traits.

Infectious diseases are particularly challenging for genome-wide association studies (GWAS) because genetic effects from two organisms (pathogen and host) can influence a trait. Traditional GWAS assume individual samples are independent observations. However, pathogen effects on a trait can be heritable from donor to recipient in transmission chains. Thus, residuals in GWAS association tests for host genetic effects may not be independent due to shared pathogen ancestry. We propose a new method to estimate and remove heritable pathogen effects on a trait based on the pathogen phylogeny prior to host GWAS, thus restoring independence of samples. In simulations, we show this additional step can increase GWAS power to detect truly associated host variants when pathogen effects are highly heritable, with strong phylogenetic correlations. We applied our framework to data from two different host-pathogen systems, HIV in humans and X. arboricola in A. thaliana. In both systems, the heritability and thus phylogenetic correlations turn out to be low enough such that qualitative results of GWAS do not change when accounting for the pathogen shared ancestry through a correction step. This means that previous GWAS results applied to these two systems should not be biased due to shared pathogen ancestry. In summary, our framework provides additional information on the evolutionary dynamics of traits in pathogen populations and may improve GWAS if pathogen effects are highly phylogenetically correlated amongst individuals in a cohort.

External validation of the PAGE-B score for HCC risk prediction in people living with HIV/HBV coinfection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: HBV coinfection is common among people living with HIV (PLWH) and is the most important cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). While risk prediction tools for HCC have been validated in patients with HBV monoinfection, they have not been evaluated in PLWH. Thus, we performed an external validation of PAGE-B in people with HIV/HBV coinfection. METHODS: We included data on PLWH from four European cohorts who were positive for HBsAg and did not have HCC before starting tenofovir. We estimated the predictive performance of PAGE-B for HCC occurrence over 15 years in patients receiving tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy. Model discrimination was assessed after multiple imputation using Cox regression with the prognostic index as a covariate, and by calculating Harrell's c-index. Calibration was assessed by comparing our cumulative incidence with the PAGE-B derivation study using Kaplan-Meier curves. RESULTS: In total, 2,963 individuals with HIV/HBV coinfection on tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy were included. PAGE-B was <10 in 26.5%, 10-17 in 57.7%, and ≥18 in 15.7% of patients. Within a median follow-up of 9.6 years, HCC occurred in 68 individuals (2.58/1,000 patient-years, 95% CI 2.03-3.27). The regression slope of the prognostic index for developing HCC within 15 years was 0.93 (95% CI 0.61-1.25), and the pooled c-index was 0.77 (range 0.73-0.80), both indicating good model discrimination. The cumulative incidence of HCC was lower in our study compared to the derivation study. A PAGE-B cut-off of <10 had a negative predictive value of 99.4% for the development of HCC within 5 years. Restricting efforts to individuals with a PAGE-B of ≥10 would spare unnecessary HCC screening in 27% of individuals. CONCLUSIONS: For individuals with HIV/HBV coinfection, PAGE-B is a valid tool to determine the need for HCC screening. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Chronic HBV infection is the most important cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among people living with HIV. Valid risk prediction may enable better targeting of HCC screening efforts to high-risk individuals. We aimed to validate PAGE-B, a risk prediction tool that is based on age, sex, and platelets, in 2,963 individuals with HIV/HBV coinfection who received tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy. In the present study, PAGE-B showed good discrimination, adequate calibration, and a cut-off of <10 had a negative predictive value of 99.4% for the development of HCC within 5 years. These results indicate that PAGE-B is a simple and valid risk prediction tool to determine the need for HCC screening among people living with HIV and HBV.

Frequency matters: comparison of drug resistance mutation detection by Sanger and next-generation sequencing in HIV-1.

BACKGROUND: Next-generation sequencing (NGS) is gradually replacing Sanger sequencing (SS) as the primary method for HIV genotypic resistance testing. However, there are limited systematic data on comparability of these methods in a clinical setting for the presence of low-abundance drug resistance mutations (DRMs) and their dependency on the variant-calling thresholds. METHODS: To compare the HIV-DRMs detected by SS and NGS, we included participants enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) with SS and NGS sequences available with sample collection dates ≤7 days apart. We tested for the presence of HIV-DRMs and compared the agreement between SS and NGS at different variant-calling thresholds. RESULTS: We included 594 pairs of SS and NGS from 527 SHCS participants. Males accounted for 80.5% of the participants, 76.3% were ART naive at sample collection and 78.1% of the sequences were subtype B. Overall, we observed a good agreement (Cohen's kappa >0.80) for HIV-DRMs for variant-calling thresholds ≥5%. We observed an increase in low-abundance HIV-DRMs detected at lower thresholds [28/417 (6.7%) at 10%-25% to 293/812 (36.1%) at 1%-2% threshold]. However, such low-abundance HIV-DRMs were overrepresented in ART-naive participants and were in most cases not detected in previously sampled sequences suggesting high sequencing error for thresholds <3%. CONCLUSIONS: We found high concordance between SS and NGS but also a substantial number of low-abundance HIV-DRMs detected only by NGS at lower variant-calling thresholds. Our findings suggest that a substantial fraction of the low-abundance HIV-DRMs detected at thresholds <3% may represent sequencing errors and hence should not be overinterpreted in clinical practice.

Contribution of alcohol use in HIV/hepatitis C virus co-infection to all-cause and cause-specific mortality: A collaboration of cohort studies.

Among persons with HIV (PWH), higher alcohol use and having hepatitis C virus (HCV) are separately associated with increased morbidity and mortality. We investigated whether the association between alcohol use and mortality among PWH is modified by HCV. Data were combined from European and North American cohorts of adult PWH who started antiretroviral therapy (ART). Self-reported alcohol use data, collected in diverse ways between cohorts, were converted to grams/day. Eligible PWH started ART during 2001-2017 and were followed from ART initiation for mortality. Interactions between the associations of baseline alcohol use (0, 0.1-20.0, >20.0 g/day) and HCV status were assessed using multivariable Cox models. Of 58,769 PWH, 29,711 (51%), 23,974 (41%) and 5084 (9%) self-reported alcohol use of 0 g/day, 0.1-20.0 g/day, and > 20.0 g/day, respectively, and 4799 (8%) had HCV at baseline. There were 844 deaths in 37,729 person-years and 2755 deaths in 443,121 person-years among those with and without HCV, respectively. Among PWH without HCV, adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for mortality were 1.18 (95% CI: 1.08-1.29) for 0.0 g/day and 1.84 (1.62-2.09) for >20.0 g/day compared with 0.1-20.0 g/day. This J-shaped pattern was absent among those with HCV: aHRs were 1.00 (0.86-1.17) for 0.0 g/day and 1.64 (1.33-2.02) for >20.0 g/day compared with 0.1-20.0 g/day (interaction p < .001). Among PWH without HCV, mortality was higher in both non-drinkers and heavy drinkers compared with moderate alcohol drinkers. Among those with HCV, mortality was higher in heavy drinkers but not non-drinkers, potentially due to differing reasons for not drinking (e.g. illness) between those with and without HCV.

Prevalence of STIs and people's satisfaction in a general population STI testing site in Bern, Switzerland.

OBJECTIVES: Access to affordable STI testing for asymptomatic persons is important to reduce STI transmission. Our testing site offers easily accessible and affordable STI testing for the general population irrespective of symptoms. Here we report STI prevalence and motivational factors of attendance. METHODS: Between 2017 and 2019, all participants at our STI testing site at the University Hospital Bern, Switzerland, were interviewed with a computer-based self-completion questionnaire. Pooled (oral, genital and anal) swabs were tested for Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae and blood samples for syphilis and HIV. People's motivational factors to attend were assessed using a standardised questionnaire. RESULTS: 5402 individuals between 17 and 82 (median 33.5) years were included. Of those, 2550 (47.2%) were between 25 and 34 years old and 3133 were heterosexual (58%), with rising attendance over the years. One-third attended because of a new sexual relationship, and one-third reported condomless sex. Among all individuals, we found 191 (3.8%) new chlamydia infections (89/191 in females and 101/191 in males) and 54 (1.1%) gonorrhoea infections (44/54 in males). In addition, 52/5125 tested individuals (0.8%) had syphilis requiring treatment.The number of sexual partners, previous bacterial STIs and condomless sex were associated with having an STI. Four heterosexual individuals were newly diagnosed with HIV. People rated a low threshold offer (through online booking or telephone) and personal counselling as most important factors to attend the service. CONCLUSION: We found many asymptomatic bacterial STIs requiring treatment. Offering easily accessible STI testing and counselling proved successful as shown by increasing rates of attendance and high levels of satisfaction.

Hepatitis delta infection among persons living with HIV in Europe.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A high prevalence of hepatitis delta virus (HDV) infection, the most severe form of viral hepatitis, has been reported among persons living with HIV (PLWH) in Europe. We analysed data from a large HIV cohort collaboration to characterize HDV epidemiological trends across Europe, as well as its impact on clinical outcomes. METHODS: All PLWH with a positive hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and EuroSIDA between 1988 and 2019 were tested for anti-HDV antibodies and, if positive, for HDV RNA. Demographic and clinical characteristics at initiation of antiretroviral therapy were compared between HDV-positive and HDV-negative individuals using descriptive statistics. The associations between HDV infection and overall mortality, liver-related mortality as well as hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were assessed using cumulative incidence plots and cause-specific multivariable Cox regression. RESULTS: Of 2793 HBsAg-positive participants, 1556 (56%) had stored serum available and were included. The prevalence of HDV coinfection was 15.2% (237/1556, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 13.5%-17.1%) and 66% (132/200) of HDV-positive individuals had active HDV replication. Among persons who inject drugs (PWID), the prevalence of HDV coinfection was 50.5% (182/360, 95% CI: 45.3%-55.7%), with similar estimates across Europe, compared to 4.7% (52/1109, 95% CI: 3.5%-5.9%) among other participants. During a median follow-up of 10.8 years (interquartile range 5.6-17.8), 82 (34.6%) HDV-positive and 265 (20.1%) HDV-negative individuals died. 41.5% (34/82) of deaths were liver-related in HDV-positive individuals compared to 17.7% (47/265) in HDV-negative individuals. HDV infection was associated with overall mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 1.6; 95% CI 1.2-2.1), liver-related death (2.9, 1.6-5.0) and HCC (6.3, 2.5-16.0). CONCLUSION: We found a very high prevalence of hepatitis delta among PWID across Europe. Among PLWH who do not inject drugs, the prevalence was similar to that reported from populations without HIV. HDV coinfection was associated with liver-related mortality and HCC incidence.

Unsupervised machine learning predicts future sexual behaviour and sexually transmitted infections among HIV-positive men who have sex with men.

Machine learning is increasingly introduced into medical fields, yet there is limited evidence for its benefit over more commonly used statistical methods in epidemiological studies. We introduce an unsupervised machine learning framework for longitudinal features and evaluate it using sexual behaviour data from the last 20 years from over 3'700 participants in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). We use hierarchical clustering to find subgroups of men who have sex with men in the SHCS with similar sexual behaviour up to May 2017, and apply regression to test whether these clusters enhance predictions of sexual behaviour or sexually transmitted diseases (STIs) after May 2017 beyond what can be predicted with conventional parameters. We find that behavioural clusters enhance model performance according to likelihood ratio test, Akaike information criterion and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for all outcomes studied, and according to Bayesian information criterion for five out of ten outcomes, with particularly good performance for predicting future sexual behaviour and recurrent STIs. We thus assess a methodology that can be used as an alternative means for creating exposure categories from longitudinal data in epidemiological models, and can contribute to the understanding of time-varying risk factors.

A Systematic Molecular Epidemiology Screen Reveals Numerous Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Type 1 Superinfections in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Studying human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) superinfection is important to understand virus transmission, disease progression, and vaccine design. But detection remains challenging, with low sampling frequencies and insufficient longitudinal samples. METHODS: Using the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS), we developed a molecular epidemiology screening for superinfections. A phylogeny built from 22 243 HIV-1 partial polymerase sequences was used to identify potential superinfections among 4575 SHCS participants with longitudinal sequences. A subset of potential superinfections was tested by near-full-length viral genome sequencing (NFVGS) of biobanked plasma samples. RESULTS: Based on phylogenetic and distance criteria, 325 potential HIV-1 superinfections were identified and categorized by their likelihood of being detected as superinfections due to sample misidentification. NFVGS was performed for 128 potential superinfections; of these, 52 were confirmed by NFVGS, 15 were not confirmed, and for 61 sampling did not allow confirming or rejecting superinfection because the sequenced samples did not include the relevant time points causing the superinfection signal in the original screen. Thus, NFVGS could support 52 of 67 adequately sampled potential superinfections. CONCLUSIONS: This cohort-based molecular approach identified, to our knowledge, the largest population of confirmed superinfections, showing that, while rare with a prevalence of 1%-7%, superinfections are not negligible events.