Long-term outcomes and patterns of relapse in patients with bilateral Wilms tumor or bilaterally predisposed unilateral Wilms tumor, a report from the COG AREN0534 study.

The objective of this study is to report the long-term timing and patterns of relapse for children enrolled in Children's Oncology Group AREN0534, a multicenter phase III clinical trial conducted from 2009 to 2015. Participants included children with bilateral Wilms tumor (BWT) or unilateral WT with genetic predisposition to develop BWT followed for up to 10 years. Smoothed hazard (risk) functions for event-free survival (EFS) were plotted so that the timing of events could be visualized, both overall and within pre-specified groups. Two hundred and twenty-two children (190 BWT and 32 unilateral WT with BWT predisposition) were followed for a median of 8.6 years. Fifty events were reported, of which 48 were relapse/progression. The overall 8-year EFS was 75% (95% confidence interval: 69%-83%). The highest risk for an EFS event was immediately after diagnosis with a declining rate over 2 years. A second peak of events was observed around 4 years after diagnosis, and a small number of events were reported until the end of the follow-up period. In subset analyses, later increases in risk were more commonly observed in patients with female sex, anaplastic histology, negative lymph nodes or margins, and favorable histology Wilms tumor patients with post-chemotherapy intermediate risk. Among relapses that occurred after 2 years, most were to the kidney. These patterns suggest that late events may be second primary tumors occurring more commonly in females, although more investigation is required. Clinicians may consider observation of patients with BWT beyond 4 years from diagnosis.

Treatment of children with favorable histology Wilms tumor with extrapulmonary metastases: A report from the COG studies AREN0533 and AREN03B2 and NWTSG study NWTS-5.

BACKGROUND: Patients with stage IV favorable histology Wilms tumor (FHWT) with extrapulmonary metastases (EPM) constitute a small subset of patients with FHWT. Because of their rarity and heterogeneity, optimal FHWT treatment is not well understood. Children's Oncology Group protocol AREN0533 assigned patients with FHWT and EPM to intensified chemotherapy, regimen M, after initial DD-4A chemotherapy. To improve understanding of prognostic factors and best therapies, experiences of patients with EPM on AREN0533, as well as on protocols AREN03B2 and NWTS-5, were reviewed. METHODS: Combined outcomes for patients with EPM from NWTS-5, AREN0533, and AREN03B2 were determined. Those treated on AREN0533 were compared with those treated on NWTS-5. Prognostic factors were explored in the pooled cohort. RESULTS: Forty-seven patients with FHWT with EPM enrolled on AREN0533, 37 enrolled on NWTS-5, and 64 were followed only on AREN03B2. The pooled cohort of all 148 patients demonstrated a 4-year event-free survival (EFS) of 77.3% (95% CI, 70.8-84.4) and 4-year overall survival of 88.9% (95% CI, 83.9-94.2). Four-year EFS of patients with EPM treated on AREN0533 was 76.0% (95% CI, 64.6-89.4) vs 64.9% (95% CI, 51.7-82.2) on NWTS-5; hazard ratio, 0.64, p = .26; no difference in overall survival was observed. Increasing linear age and slow incomplete lung response were associated with worse EFS in a pooled cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Outcomes for patients with EPM are among the lowest for children with FHWT. Further trials with standardized surgical and radiation treatment to metastatic sites, and prospectively collected biologic and treatment details are needed. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical Trials.gov identifiers: NCT00379340, NCT00898365, and NCT00002611.

Prognostic impact of lymph node involvement and loss of heterozygosity of 1p or 16q in stage III favorable histology Wilms tumor: A report from Children's Oncology Group Studies AREN03B2 and AREN0532.

INTRODUCTION: The prognostic impact of positive lymph nodes (LN+) and/or singular loss of heterozygosity (LOH) of 1p or 16q were assessed in children with stage III favorable histology Wilms tumor (FHWT) enrolled on AREN0532 or AREN03B2 alone. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 635 stage III FHWT vincristine/dactinomycin/doxorubicin (DD4A)-treated patients met inclusion criteria. Event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival are reported overall and by LN sampling, LN status, LOH 1p, LOH 16q, and a combination of LN status and singular LOH. Patients with unknown or positive combined LOH of 1p and 16q status and AREN03B2-only patients with unknown outcomes or treatment other than DD4A were excluded. RESULTS: EFS did not differ by study, supporting pooling. Lack of LN sampling (hazard ratio [HR], 2.12; p = .0037), LN positivity (HR, 2.78; p = .0002), LOH 1p (HR, 2.18; p = .0067), and LOH 16q (HR, 1.72; p = .042) were associated with worse EFS. Compared with patients with both LN- and LOH-, those with negative nodes but positive LOH 1p or 16q and those with LN+ but LOH- for 1p or 16q had significantly worse EFS (HR, 3.05 and 3.57, respectively). Patients positive for both LN and LOH had the worst EFS (HR, 6.33; overall group factor, p < .0001). CONCLUSION: Findings confirm LN+ status as an adverse prognostic factor amplified by presence of singular LOH 1p or 16q, supporting study of intensified therapy for patients with LN+ in combination with singular LOH in a prospective clinical trial.

Treatment and outcomes of clear cell sarcoma of the kidney: A report from the Children's Oncology Group studies AREN0321 and AREN03B2.

BACKGROUND: On the fifth National Wilms Tumor Study, treatment for clear cell sarcoma of the kidney (CCSK) included combined vincristine, doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide, and etoposide (regimen I) plus radiation therapy (RT), yielding 5-year event-free survival (EFS) rates of 100%, 88%, 73%, and 29% for patients who had with stage I, II, III, and IV disease, respectively. In the Children's Oncology Group study AREN0321 of risk-adapted therapy, RT was omitted for stage I disease if lymph nodes were sampled, and carboplatin was added for stage IV disease (regimen UH-1). Patients who had stage II/III disease received regimen I with RT. METHODS: Four-year EFS was analyzed for patients enrolled on AREN0321 and on those enrolled on AREN03B2 who received AREN0321 stage-appropriate chemotherapy. RESULTS: Eighty-two patients with CCSK enrolled on AREN0321, 50 enrolled on AREN03B2 only. The 4-year EFS rate was 82.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 74.8%-91.4%) for AREN0321 and 89.6% (95% CI, 81.3%-98.7%) for AREN03B2 only (p = .28). When combining studies, the 4-year EFS rates for patients who had stage I (n = 10), II (n = 47), III (n = 65), and IV (n = 10) disease were 90% (95% CI, 73.2%-100.0%), 93.4% (95% CI, 86.4%-100.0%), 82.8% (95% CI, 74.1%-92.6%), and 58.3% (95% CI, 34%-100.0%), respectively. There were no local recurrences among seven patients with stage I disease who were treated without RT. One stage I recurrence occurred in the brain, which was the most common site of relapse overall. Among patients with local stage III tumors, neither initial procedure type, margin status, nor lymph node involvement were prognostic. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with stage I CCSK had excellent outcomes without local recurrences when treated without RT. Patients with stage IV disease appeared to benefit from a carboplatin-containing regimen, although their outcomes remained unsatisfactory. Further research is needed to improve outcomes for patients with advanced-stage disease (ClinicalTrials.gov identifiers NCT00335556 and NCT00898365).

Bilateral Wilms tumor with anaplasia: A report from the Children's Oncology Group Study AREN0534.

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study is to examine the outcomes in children with anaplastic bilateral Wilms tumor (BWT) from study AREN0534 in order to define potential prognostic factors and areas to target in future clinical trials. METHODS: Demographic and clinical data from AREN0534 study patients with anaplasia (focal anaplasia [FA], or diffuse anaplasia [DA]) were compared. Event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) were reported using Kaplan-Meier estimation with 95% confidence bands, and differences in outcomes between FA and DA compared using log-rank tests. The impact of margin status was analyzed. RESULTS: Twenty-seven children who enrolled on AREN0534 had evidence of anaplasia (17 DA, 10 FA) in at least one kidney and were included in this analysis. Twenty-six (96%) had BWT. Nineteen percent had anaplastic histology in both kidneys (four of 17 DA, and one of 10 FA). Forty-six percent with BWT had bilateral nephron-sparing surgery (NSS); one child who went off protocol therapy, eventually required bilateral completion nephrectomies. Median follow-up for EFS and OS was 8.6 and 8.7 years from enrollment. Four- and 8-year EFS was 53% [95% confidence interval (CI): 34%-83%] for DA; 4-year EFS was 80% [95% CI: 59%-100%], and 8-year EFS 70% [95% CI: 47%-100%] for FA. Three out of 10 children with FA and eight out of 17 children with DA had events. EFS did not differ statistically by margin status (p = .79; HR = 0.88). Among the six children who died (five DA, one FA), all experienced prior relapse or progression within 18 months. CONCLUSION: Events in children with DA/FA in the setting of BWT occurred early. Caution should be taken about interpreting the impact of margin status outcomes in the context of contemporary multimodal therapy. Future targeted investigations in children with BWT and DA/FA are needed.

Biomarker-driven basket trial designs: origins and new methodological developments.

Due to increased use of gene sequencing techniques, understanding of cancer on a molecular level has evolved, in terms of both diagnosis and evaluation in response to initial therapies. In parallel, clinical trials meant to evaluate molecularly-driven interventions through assessment of both treatment effects and putative predictive biomarker effects are being employed to advance the goals of precision medicine. Basket trials investigate one or more biomarker-targeted therapies across multiple cancer types in a tumor location agnostic fashion. The review article offers an overview of the traditional forms of such designs, the practical challenges facing each type of design, and then review novel adaptations proposed in the last few years, categorized into Bayesian and Classical Frequentist perspectives. The review article concludes by summarizing potential advantages and limitations of the new trial design solutions.

Children's Oncology Group's 2023 blueprint for research: Renal tumors.

Every year, approximately 600 infants, children, and adolescents are diagnosed with renal cancer in the United States. In addition to Wilms tumor (WT), which accounts for about 80% of all pediatric renal cancers, clear cell sarcoma of the kidney, renal cell carcinoma, malignant rhabdoid tumor, as well as more rare cancers (other sarcomas, rare carcinomas, lymphoma) and benign tumors can originate within the kidney. WT itself can be divided into favorable histology (FHWT), with a 5-year overall survival (OS) exceeding 90%, and anaplastic histology, with 4-year OS of 73.7%. Outcomes of the other pediatric renal cancers include clear cell sarcoma (5-year OS: 90%), malignant rhabdoid tumor (5-year OS: 10% for stages 3 and 4), and renal cell carcinoma (4-year OS: 84.8%). Recent clinical trials have identified novel biological prognostic markers for FHWT, and a series of Children's Oncology Group (COG) trials have demonstrated improving outcomes with therapy modification, and opportunities for further care refinement.

Bayesian adaptive trial design for a continuous biomarker with possibly nonlinear or nonmonotone prognostic or predictive effects.

As diseases like cancer are increasingly understood on a molecular level, clinical trials are being designed to reveal or validate subpopulations in which an experimental therapy has enhanced benefit. Such biomarker-driven designs, particularly "adaptive enrichment" designs that initially enroll an unselected population and then allow for later restriction of accrual to "marker-positive" patients based on interim results, are increasingly popular. Many biomarkers of interest are naturally continuous, however, and most existing design approaches either require upfront dichotomization or force monotonicity through algorithmic searches for a single marker threshold, thereby excluding the possibility that the continuous biomarker has a nondisjoint and truly nonlinear or nonmonotone prognostic relationship with outcome or predictive relationship with treatment effect. To address this, we propose a novel trial design that leverages both the actual shapes of any continuous marker effects (both prognostic and predictive) and their corresponding posterior uncertainty in an adaptive decision-making framework. At interim analyses, this marker knowledge is updated and overall or marker-driven decisions are reached such as continuing enrollment to the next interim analysis or terminating early for efficacy or futility. Using simulations and patient-level data from a multi-center Children's Oncology Group trial in Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia, we derive the operating characteristics of our design and compare its performance to a traditional approach that identifies and applies a dichotomizing marker threshold.

Duration of Adjuvant Chemotherapy for Stage III Colon Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Since 2004, a regimen of 6 months of treatment with oxaliplatin plus a fluoropyrimidine has been standard adjuvant therapy in patients with stage III colon cancer. However, since oxaliplatin is associated with cumulative neurotoxicity, a shorter duration of therapy could spare toxic effects and health expenditures. METHODS: We performed a prospective, preplanned, pooled analysis of six randomized, phase 3 trials that were conducted concurrently to evaluate the noninferiority of adjuvant therapy with either FOLFOX (fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin) or CAPOX (capecitabine and oxaliplatin) administered for 3 months, as compared with 6 months. The primary end point was the rate of disease-free survival at 3 years. Noninferiority of 3 months versus 6 months of therapy could be claimed if the upper limit of the two-sided 95% confidence interval of the hazard ratio did not exceed 1.12. RESULTS: After 3263 events of disease recurrence or death had been reported in 12,834 patients, the noninferiority of 3 months of treatment versus 6 months was not confirmed in the overall study population (hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.15). Noninferiority of the shorter regimen was seen for CAPOX (hazard ratio, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.85 to 1.06) but not for FOLFOX (hazard ratio, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.26). In an exploratory analysis of the combined regimens, among the patients with T1, T2, or T3 and N1 cancers, 3 months of therapy was noninferior to 6 months, with a 3-year rate of disease-free survival of 83.1% and 83.3%, respectively (hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.90 to 1.12). Among patients with cancers that were classified as T4, N2, or both, the disease-free survival rate for a 6-month duration of therapy was superior to that for a 3-month duration (64.4% vs. 62.7%) for the combined treatments (hazard ratio, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.23; P=0.01 for superiority). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with stage III colon cancer receiving adjuvant therapy with FOLFOX or CAPOX, noninferiority of 3 months of therapy, as compared with 6 months, was not confirmed in the overall population. However, in patients treated with CAPOX, 3 months of therapy was as effective as 6 months, particularly in the lower-risk subgroup. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute and others.).

Impact of the First Generation of Children's Oncology Group Clinical Trials on Clinical Practice for Wilms Tumor.

Refinements in surgery, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy since the mid-20th century have resulted in a survival rate exceeding 90% for patients with Wilms tumor (WT). Although this figure is remarkable, a significant proportion of patients continue to have event-free survival (EFS) estimates of <75%, and nearly 25% of survivors experience severe chronic medical conditions. The first-generation Children's Oncology Group (COG) renal tumor trials (AREN '0'), which opened to enrollment in 2006, focused on augmenting treatment regimens for WT subgroups with predicted EFS <75% to 80%, including those with the adverse prognostic marker of combined loss of heterozygosity (LOH) at chromosomes 1p/16q, pulmonary metastasis with incomplete lung nodule response after 6 weeks of chemotherapy, bilateral disease, and anaplastic histology. Conversely, therapy was reduced for patient subgroups with good outcomes and potential for long-term toxicity, such as those with lung metastasis with complete lung nodule response after 6 weeks of chemotherapy. This article summarizes the key findings of the first-generation COG renal tumor studies and their implications for clinical practice.

Point and interval estimation in two-stage adaptive designs with time to event data and biomarker-driven subpopulation selection.

In personalized medicine, it is often desired to determine if all patients or only a subset of them benefit from a treatment. We consider estimation in two-stage adaptive designs that in stage 1 recruit patients from the full population. In stage 2, patient recruitment is restricted to the part of the population, which, based on stage 1 data, benefits from the experimental treatment. Existing estimators, which adjust for using stage 1 data for selecting the part of the population from which stage 2 patients are recruited, as well as for the confirmatory analysis after stage 2, do not consider time to event patient outcomes. In this work, for time to event data, we have derived a new asymptotically unbiased estimator for the log hazard ratio and a new interval estimator with good coverage probabilities and probabilities that the upper bounds are below the true values. The estimators are appropriate for several selection rules that are based on a single or multiple biomarkers, which can be categorical or continuous.

Point estimation following two-stage adaptive threshold enrichment clinical trials.

Recently, several study designs incorporating treatment effect assessment in biomarker-based subpopulations have been proposed. Most statistical methodologies for such designs focus on the control of type I error rate and power. In this paper, we have developed point estimators for clinical trials that use the two-stage adaptive enrichment threshold design. The design consists of two stages, where in stage 1, patients are recruited in the full population. Stage 1 outcome data are then used to perform interim analysis to decide whether the trial continues to stage 2 with the full population or a subpopulation. The subpopulation is defined based on one of the candidate threshold values of a numerical predictive biomarker. To estimate treatment effect in the selected subpopulation, we have derived unbiased estimators, shrinkage estimators, and estimators that estimate bias and subtract it from the naive estimate. We have recommended one of the unbiased estimators. However, since none of the estimators dominated in all simulation scenarios based on both bias and mean squared error, an alternative strategy would be to use a hybrid estimator where the estimator used depends on the subpopulation selected. This would require a simulation study of plausible scenarios before the trial.

Definitions and statistical properties of master protocols for personalized medicine in oncology.

Within the field of cancer research, discovery of biomarkers and genetic mutations that are potentially predictive of treatment benefit is motivating a paradigm shift in how cancer clinical trials are conducted. In this review, we provide an overview of the class of trials known as "master protocols," including basket trials, umbrella trials, and platform trials. For each, we describe standardized terminology, provide a motivating example with modeling details and decision rules, and discuss statistical advantages and limitations. We conclude with a discussion of general statistical considerations and challenges encountered across these types of trials.

Anorectal Function and Quality of Life in Patients With Early Stage Rectal Cancer Treated With Chemoradiation and Local Excision.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about anorectal function and quality of life after chemoradiation followed by local excision, which is an alternative to total mesorectal excision for selected patients with early rectal cancer. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to prospectively assess anorectal function and health-related quality of life of patients with T2N0 rectal cancer who were treated with an alternative approach. DESIGN: This was a prospective, phase II trial. SETTINGS: The study was multicentric (American College of Surgeons Oncology Group trial Z6041). INTERVENTIONS: Patients with stage cT2N0 rectal adenocarcinomas were treated with an oxaliplatin/capecitabine-based chemoradiation regimen followed by local excision. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Anorectal function and quality of life were assessed at enrollment and 1 year postoperatively with the Fecal Incontinence Severity Index, Fecal Incontinence Quality of Life scale, and Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Colorectal Questionnaire. Results were compared, and multivariable analysis was performed to identify predictors of outcome. RESULTS: Seventy-one patients (98%) were evaluated at enrollment and 66 (92%) at 1 year. Compared with baseline, no significant differences were found on Fecal Incontinence Severity Index scores at 1 year. Fecal Incontinence Quality of Life results were significantly worse in the lifestyle (p < 0.001), coping/behavior (p < 0.001), and embarrassment (p = 0.002) domains. There were no differences in the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy overall score, but the physical well-being subscale was significantly worse and emotional well-being was improved after surgery. Treatment with the original chemoradiation regimen predicted worse depression/self-perception and embarrassment scores in the Fecal Incontinence Quality of Life, and male sex was predictive of worse scores in the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy overall score and trial outcome index. LIMITATIONS: Small sample size, relatively short follow-up, and absence of information before cancer diagnosis were study limitations. CONCLUSIONS: Chemoradiation followed by local excision had minimal impact on anorectal function 1 year after surgery. Overall quality of life remained stable, with mixed effects on different subscales. This information should be used to counsel patients about expected outcomes.

Organ preservation for clinical T2N0 distal rectal cancer using neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and local excision (ACOSOG Z6041): results of an open-label, single-arm, multi-institutional, phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Local excision is an organ-preserving treatment alternative to transabdominal resection for patients with stage I rectal cancer. However, local excision alone is associated with a high risk of local recurrence and inferior survival compared with transabdominal rectal resection. We investigated the oncological and functional outcomes of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and local excision for patients with stage T2N0 rectal cancer. METHODS: We did a multi-institutional, single-arm, open-label, non-randomised, phase 2 trial of patients with clinically staged T2N0 distal rectal cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy at 26 American College of Surgeons Oncology Group institutions. Patients with clinical T2N0 rectal adenocarcinoma staged by endorectal ultrasound or endorectal coil MRI, measuring less than 4 cm in greatest diameter, involving less than 40% of the circumference of the rectum, located within 8 cm of the anal verge, and with an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of at least 2 were included in the study. Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy consisted of capecitabine (original dose 825 mg/m(2) twice daily on days 1-14 and 22-35), oxaliplatin (50 mg/m(2) on weeks 1, 2, 4, and 5), and radiation (5 days a week at 1·8 Gy per day for 5 weeks to a dose of 45 Gy, followed by a boost of 9 Gy, for a total dose of 54 Gy) followed by local excision. Because of adverse events during chemoradiotherapy, the dose of capecitabine was reduced to 725 mg/m(2) twice-daily, 5 days per week, for 5 weeks, and the boost of radiation was reduced to 5·4 Gy, for a total dose of 50·4 Gy. The primary endpoint was 3-year disease-free survival for all eligible patients (intention-to-treat population) and for patients who completed chemotherapy and radiation, and had ypT0, ypT1, or ypT2 tumours, and negative resection margins (per-protocol group). This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00114231. FINDINGS: Between May 25, 2006, and Oct 22, 2009, 79 eligible patients were recruited to the trial and started neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Two patients had no surgery and one had a total mesorectal excision. Four additional patients completed protocol treatment, but one had a positive margin and three had ypT3 tumours. Thus, the per-protocol population consisted of 72 patients. Median follow-up was 56 months (IQR 46-63) for all patients. The estimated 3-year disease-free survival for the intention-to-treat group was 88·2% (95% CI 81·3-95·8), and for the per-protocol group was 86·9% (79·3-95·3). Of 79 eligible patients, 23 (29%) had grade 3 gastrointestinal adverse events, 12 (15%) had grade 3-4 pain, and 12 (15%) had grade 3-4 haematological adverse events during chemoradiation. Of the 77 patients who had surgery, six (8%) had grade 3 pain, three (4%) had grade 3-4 haemorrhage, and three (4%) had gastrointestinal adverse events. INTERPRETATION: Although the observed 3-year disease free survival was not as high as anticipated, our data suggest that neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy followed by local excision might be considered as an organ-preserving alternative in carefully selected patients with clinically staged T2N0 tumours who refuse, or are not candidates for, transabdominal resection. FUNDING: National Cancer Institute and Sanofi-Aventis.

CpG island methylator phenotype is associated with response to adjuvant irinotecan-based therapy for stage III colon cancer.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP), defined by a high frequency of aberrantly methylated genes, is a characteristic of a subclass of colon tumors with distinct clinical and molecular features. Cohort studies have produced conflicting results on responses of CIMP-positive tumors to chemotherapy. We assessed the association between tumor CIMP status and survival of patients receiving adjuvant fluorouracil and leucovorin alone or with irinotecan (IFL). METHODS: We analyzed data from patients with stage III colon adenocarcinoma randomly assigned to groups given fluorouracil and leucovorin or IFL after surgery, from April 1999 through April 2001. The primary end point of the trial was overall survival and the secondary end point was disease-free survival. DNA isolated from available tumor samples (n = 615) was used to determine CIMP status based on methylation patterns at the CACNA1G, IGF2, NEUROG1, RUNX3, and SOCS1 loci. The effects of CIMP on survival were modeled using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards; interactions with treatment and BRAF, KRAS, and mismatch repair (MMR) status were also investigated. RESULTS: Of the tumor samples characterized for CIMP status, 145 were CIMP positive (23%). Patients with CIMP-positive tumors had shorter overall survival times than patients with CIMP-negative tumors (hazard ratio = 1.36; 95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.84). Treatment with IFL showed a trend toward increased overall survival for patients with CIMP-positive tumors, compared with treatment with fluorouracil and leucovorin (hazard ratio = 0.62; 95% CI: 0.37-1.05; P = .07), but not for patients with CIMP-negative tumors (hazard ratio = 1.38; 95% CI: 1.00-1.89; P = .049). In a 3-way interaction analysis, patients with CIMP-positive, MMR-intact tumors benefited most from the addition of irinotecan to fluorouracil and leucovorin therapy (for the interaction, P = .01). CIMP was more strongly associated with response to IFL than MMR status. Results for disease-free survival times were comparable among all analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with stage III, CIMP-positive, MMR-intact colon tumors have longer survival times when irinotecan is added to combination therapy with fluorouracil and leucovorin.

Impact of Copula Directional Specification on Multi-Trial Evaluation of Surrogate End Points.

Evaluation of surrogate end points using patient-level data from multiple trials is the gold standard, where multi-trial copula models are used to quantify both patient-level and trial-level surrogacy. While limited consideration has been given in the literature to copula choice (e.g., Clayton), no prior consideration has been given to direction of implementation (via survival vs. distribution functions). We demonstrate that even with the "correct" copula family, directional misspecification leads to biased estimates of patient-level and trial-level surrogacy. We illustrate with a simulation study and a reanalysis of disease-free survival as a surrogate for overall survival in early stage colon cancer.

Prospective multicenter study of the impact of oncotype DX colon cancer assay results on treatment recommendations in stage II colon cancer patients.

The Oncotype DX colon cancer assay is a clinically validated predictor of recurrence risk in stage II colon cancer patients. This prospective study evaluated the impact of recurrence score (RS) results on physician recommendations regarding adjuvant chemotherapy in T3, mismatch repair-proficient (MMR-P) stage II colon cancer patients. Patients and Methods. Stage IIA colon cancer patients were enrolled in 17 centers. Patient tumor specimens were assessed by the RS test (quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction) and mismatch repair (immunohistochemistry). For each patient, the physician's recommended postoperative treatment plan of observation, fluoropyrimidine monotherapy, or combination therapy with oxaliplatin was recorded before and after the RS and mismatch repair results were provided. Results. Of 221 enrolled patients, 141 patients had T3 MMR-P tumors and were eligible for the primary analysis. Treatment recommendations changed for 63 (45%; 95% confidence interval: 36%-53%) of these 141 T3 MMR-P patients, with intensity decreasing for 47 (33%) and increasing for 16 (11%). Recommendations for chemotherapy decreased from 73 patients (52%) to 42 (30%), following review of RS results by physician and patient. Increased treatment intensity was more often observed at higher RS values, and decreased intensity was observed at lower values (p = .011). Conclusion. Compared with traditional clinicopathological assessment, incorporation of the RS result into clinical decision making was associated with treatment recommendation changes for 45% of T3 MMR-P stage II colon cancer patients in this prospective multicenter study. Use of the RS assay may lead to overall reduction in adjuvant chemotherapy use in this subgroup of stage II colon cancer patients.

Center-Within-Trial Versus Trial-Level Evaluation of Surrogate Endpoints.

Evaluation of candidate surrogate endpoints using individual patient data from multiple clinical trials is considered the gold standard approach to validate surrogates at both patient and trial levels. However, this approach assumes the availability of patient-level data from a relatively large collection of similar trials, which may not be possible to achieve for a given disease application. One common solution to the problem of too few similar trials involves performing trial-level surrogacy analyses on trial sub-units (e.g., centers within trials), thereby artificially increasing the trial-level sample size for feasibility of the multi-trial analysis. To date, the practical impact of treating trial sub-units (centers) identically to trials in multi-trial surrogacy analyses remains unexplored, and conditions under which this ad hoc solution may in fact be reasonable have not been identified. We perform a simulation study to identify such conditions, and demonstrate practical implications using a multi-trial dataset of patients with early stage colon cancer.

Race and Ethnic Group Enrollment and Outcomes for Wilms Tumor: Analysis of the Current Era Children's Oncology Group Study, AREN03B2.

BACKGROUND: To review race and ethnic group enrollment and outcomes for Wilms tumor (WT) across all 4 risk-assigned therapeutic trials from the current era Children's Oncology Group Renal Tumor Biology and Risk Stratification Protocol, AREN03B2. STUDY DESIGN: For patients with WT enrolled in AREN03B2 (2006 to 2019), disease and biologic features, therapeutic study-specific enrollment, and event-free (EFS) and overall (OS) 4-year survival were compared between institutionally reported race and ethnic groups. RESULTS: Among 5,146 patients with WT, no statistically significant differences were detected between race and ethnic groups regarding subsequent risk-assigned therapeutic study enrollment, disease stage, histology, biologic factors, or overall EFS or OS, except the following variables: Black children were older and had larger tumors at enrollment, whereas Hispanic children had lower rates of diffuse anaplasia WT and loss of heterozygosity at 1p. The only significant difference in EFS or OS between race and ethnic groups was observed among the few children treated for diffuse anaplasia WT with regimen UH-1 and -2 on high-risk protocol, AREN0321. On this therapeutic arm only, Black children showed worse EFS (hazard ratio = 3.18) and OS (hazard ratio = 3.42). However, this finding was not replicated for patients treated with regimen UH-1 and -2 under AREN03B2 but not on AREN0321. CONCLUSIONS: Race and ethnic group enrollment appeared constant across AREN03B2 risk-assigned therapeutic trials. EFS and OS on these therapeutic trials when analyzed together were comparable regarding race and ethnicity. Black children may have experienced worse stage-specific survival when treated with regimen UH-1 and -2 on AREN0321, but this survival gap was not confirmed when analyzing additional high-risk AREN03B2 patients.