ABSTRACT
The adverse effects of climate change on human health are unfolding in real time. Environmental fragmentation is amplifying spillover of viruses from wildlife to humans. Increasing temperatures are expanding mosquito and tick habitats, introducing vector-borne viruses into immunologically susceptible populations. More frequent flooding is spreading water-borne viral pathogens, while prolonged droughts reduce regional capacity to prevent and respond to disease outbreaks with adequate water, sanitation, and hygiene resources. Worsening air quality and altered transmission seasons due to an increasingly volatile climate may exacerbate the impacts of respiratory viruses. Furthermore, both extreme weather events and long-term climate variation are causing the destruction of health systems and large-scale migrations, reshaping health care delivery in the face of an evolving global burden of viral disease. Because of their immunological immaturity, differences in physiology (e.g., size), dependence on caregivers, and behavioral traits, children are particularly vulnerable to climate change. This investigation into the unique pediatric viral threats posed by an increasingly inhospitable world elucidates potential avenues of targeted programming and uncovers future research questions to effect equitable, actionable change. IMPACT: A review of the effects of climate change on viral threats to pediatric health, including zoonotic, vector-borne, water-borne, and respiratory viruses, as well as distal threats related to climate-induced migration and health systems. A unique focus on viruses offers a more in-depth look at the effect of climate change on vector competence, viral particle survival, co-morbidities, and host behavior. An examination of children as a particularly vulnerable population provokes programming tailored to their unique set of vulnerabilities and encourages reflection on equitable climate adaptation frameworks.
Subject(s)
Air Pollution , Virus Diseases , Animals , Humans , Child , Climate Change , Disease Outbreaks , WaterABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence to evaluate screening algorithms with rapid antigen testing and exposure assessments as identification strategies for paucisymptomatic or asymptomatic Ebola virus (EBOV) infection and unrecognized EBOV disease (EVD). METHODS: We used serostatus and self-reported postexposure symptoms from a cohort study to classify contact-participants as having no infection, paucisymptomatic or asymptomatic infection, or unrecognized EVD. Exposure risk was categorized as low, intermediate, or high. We created hypothetical scenarios to evaluate the World Health Organization (WHO) case definition with or without rapid diagnostic testing (RDT) or exposure assessments. RESULTS: This analysis included 990 EVD survivors and 1909 contacts, of whom 115 (6%) had paucisymptomatic or asymptomatic EBOV infection, 107 (6%) had unrecognized EVD, and 1687 (88%) were uninfected. High-risk exposures were drivers of unrecognized EVD (adjusted odds ratio, 3.5 [95% confidence interval, 2.4-4.9]). To identify contacts with unrecognized EVD who test negative by the WHO case definition, the sensitivity was 96% with RDT (95% confidence interval, 91%-99%), 87% with high-risk exposure (82%-92%), and 97% with intermediate- to high-risk exposures (93%-99%). The proportion of false-positives was 2% with RDT and 53%-93% with intermediate- and/or high-risk exposures. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated the utility and trade-offs of sequential screening algorithms with RDT or exposure risk assessments as identification strategies for contacts with unrecognized EVD.
Subject(s)
Ebolavirus , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola , Humans , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/diagnosis , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Cohort Studies , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Risk Assessment , Asymptomatic Infections/epidemiologyABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Our understanding of the different effects of targeted versus nontargeted violence on Ebola virus (EBOV) transmission in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is limited. METHODS: We used time-series data of case counts to compare individuals in Ebola-affected health zones in DRC, April 2018-August 2019. Exposure was number of violent events per health zone, categorized into Ebola-targeted or Ebola-untargeted, and into civilian-induced, (para)military/political, or protests. Outcome was estimated daily reproduction number (Rt) by health zone. We fit linear time-series regression to model the relationship. RESULTS: Average Rt was 1.06 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.11). A mean of 2.92 violent events resulted in cumulative absolute increase in Rt of 0.10 (95% CI, .05-.15). More violent events increased EBOV transmission (Pâ =â .03). Considering violent events in the 95th percentile over a 21-day interval and its relative impact on Rt, Ebola-targeted events corresponded to Rt of 1.52 (95% CI, 1.30-1.74), while civilian-induced events corresponded to Rt of 1.43 (95% CI, 1.21-1.35). Untargeted events corresponded to Rt of 1.18 (95% CI, 1.02-1.35); among these, militia/political or ville morte events increased transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Ebola-targeted violence, primarily driven by civilian-induced events, had the largest impact on EBOV transmission.
Subject(s)
Armed Conflicts/classification , Civil Disorders/classification , Disease Outbreaks , Geographic Mapping , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/transmission , Democratic Republic of the Congo/epidemiology , Ebolavirus , HumansABSTRACT
Studies have yet to include minimally symptomatic Ebola virus (EBOV) infections and unrecognized Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Ebola-related transmission chains and epidemiologic risk estimates. We conducted a cross-sectional, sero-epidemiological survey from October 2015 to January 2016 among 221 individuals living in quarantined households from November 2014 to February 2015 during the Ebola outbreak in the village of Sukudu, Sierra Leone. Of 48 EBOV-infected persons, 25% (95% confidence interval [CI], 14%-40%) had minimally symptomatic EBOV infections and 4% (95% CI, 1%-14%) were unrecognized EVD cases. The pattern of minimally symptomatic EBOV infections in the transmission chain was nonrandom (P < .001, permutation test). Not having lived in the same house as an EVD case was significantly associated with minimally symptomatic infection. This is the first study to investigate a chain of EBOV transmission inclusive of minimally symptomatic EBOV infections and unrecognized EVD. Our findings provide new insights into Ebola transmission dynamics and quarantine practices.
Subject(s)
Ebolavirus/physiology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/transmission , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/virology , Seroepidemiologic Studies , Adolescent , Adult , Disease Outbreaks , Female , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Sierra Leone/epidemiology , Young AdultABSTRACT
Gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) continue to have disproportionately high burdens of HIV infection in countries of low, middle, and high income in 2016. 4 years after publication of a Lancet Series on MSM and HIV, progress on reducing HIV incidence, expanding sustained access to treatment, and realising human rights gains for MSM remains markedly uneven and fraught with challenges. Incidence densities in MSM are unacceptably high in countries as diverse as China, Kenya, Thailand, the UK, and the USA, with substantial disparities observed in specific communities of MSM including young and minority populations. Although some settings have achieved sufficient coverage of treatment, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), and human rights protections for sexual and gender minorities to change the trajectory of the HIV epidemic in MSM, these are exceptions. The roll-out of PrEP has been notably slow and coverage nowhere near what will be required for full use of this new preventive approach. Despite progress on issues such as marriage equality and decriminalisation of same-sex behaviour in some countries, there has been a marked increase in anti-gay legislation in many countries, including Nigeria, Russia, and The Gambia. The global epidemic of HIV in MSM is ongoing, and global efforts to address it remain insufficient. This must change if we are ever to truly achieve an AIDS-free generation.
Subject(s)
Anti-HIV Agents/therapeutic use , Bisexuality , Global Health , HIV Infections/prevention & control , Homosexuality, Male , Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis/methods , Antiretroviral Therapy, Highly Active/methods , China/epidemiology , Epidemics , Gambia/epidemiology , HIV Infections/drug therapy , HIV Infections/epidemiology , Human Rights , Humans , Incidence , Kenya/epidemiology , Legislation as Topic , Male , Minority Groups , Nigeria/epidemiology , Russia/epidemiology , Sexual Behavior , Thailand/epidemiology , United Kingdom/epidemiology , United States/epidemiologyABSTRACT
CONTEXT: High-income country (HIC) trainees are undertaking global health experiences in low- and middle-income country (LMIC) host communities in increasing numbers. Although the benefits for HIC trainees are well described, the benefits and drawbacks for LMIC host communities are not well captured. OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated the perspectives of supervising physicians and local programme coordinators from LMIC host communities who engaged with HIC trainees in the context of the latter's short-term experiences in global health. METHODS: Thirty-five semi-structured interviews were conducted with LMIC host community collaborators with a US-based, non-profit global health education organisation. Interviews took place in La Paz, Bolivia and New Delhi, India. Interview transcripts were assessed for recurrent themes using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Benefits for hosts included improvements in job satisfaction, local prestige, global connectedness, local networks, leadership skills, resources and sense of efficacy within their communities. Host collaborators called for improvements in HIC trainee attitudes and behaviours, and asked that trainees not make promises they would not fulfil. Findings also provided evidence of a desire for parity between the opportunities afforded to US-based staff and those available to LMIC-based partners. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides important insights into the perspectives of LMIC host community members in the context of short-term experiences in global health for HIC trainees. We hope to inform the behaviour of HIC trainees and institutions with regard to international partnerships and global health activities.
Subject(s)
Attitude of Health Personnel , Clinical Clerkship/methods , Global Health/education , International Educational Exchange/trends , Students, Medical , Bolivia , Developing Countries , Education, Medical , Female , Humans , India , International Cooperation , Interviews as Topic , Job Satisfaction , Leadership , MaleABSTRACT
Objective: To review evidence pertaining to methods for preventing healthcare-associated filovirus infections (including the survivability of filoviruses in clinical environments and the chlorine concentration required for effective disinfection), and to assess protocols for determining the risk of health worker (HW) exposures to filoviruses. Design: Integrative review. Data sources: PubMed, Embase, Google Scholar, internet-based sources of international health organisations (eg, WHO, CDC), references of the included literature and grey literature. Study selection: Laboratory science, clinical research and real-world observational studies identified through comprehensive search strings that pertained to Ebola disease and Marburg disease and the three research objectives. Methods: Using the framework of population, intervention or exposure, outcomes, study types and report characteristics, reviewers extracted data and critically appraised the evidence using predefined data extraction forms and summary tables. The extraction forms, summary tables and critical appraisals varied based on the included literature; we used both the QUIPS Risk-of-Bias tool when possible and an internally developed instrument to systematically extract and review the evidence from observational and experimental studies. Evidence was then synthesised and summarised to create summary recommendations. Results: Thirty-six studies (including duplicates across research questions) were included in our reviews. All studies that related to the review questions were either (1) descriptive, real-world studies (ie, environmental audits of various surfaces in operational Ebola Treatment Units) or (2) controlled, laboratory studies (ie, experimental studies on the survivability of ebolaviruses in controlled conditions), presenting a range of concerns pertaining to bias and external validity. Our reviews of viral survivability evidence revealed significant disconnections between laboratory-based and real-world findings. However, there is greater viral persistence in liquid than dried body fluids, with the possible exception of blood, and ebolaviruses can survive for significant periods of time in dried substrate. Evidence suggests that 0.5% hypochlorite solution should be used for disinfection activity. Spills should be cleaned with covering and soaking for 15 min. Existing literature suggests that within a well-resourced clinical environment with trained, foreign HWs and established protocols, transmission of ebolaviruses as an occupational risk is a rare event. Despite the high rates of HW infections within public African healthcare settings, no evidence with low risk of bias exists to assess the risk of various occupational exposures given that all high-quality studies were conducted on foreign Ebola clinicians who had low overall rates of infection. This review underscores the critical need for better-quality evidence to inform best practices to ensure HW safety during filovirus disease epidemics.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Attempts to understand biosocial phenomena using scientific methods are often presented as value-neutral and objective; however, when used to reduce the complexity of open systems such as epidemics, these forms of inquiry necessarily entail normative considerations and are therefore fashioned by political worldviews (ideologies). From the standpoint of poststructural theory, the character of these representations is at most limited and partial. In addition, these modes of representation (as stories) do work (as technologies) in the service of, or in resistance to, power. METHODS: We focus on a single Ebola case cluster from the 2013-2016 outbreak in West Africa and examine how different disciplinary forms of knowledge production (including outbreak forecasting, active epidemiological surveillance, post-outbreak serosurveys, political economic analyses, and ethnography) function as Story Technologies. We then explore how these technologies are used to curate 'data,' analysing the erasures, values, and imperatives evoked by each. RESULTS: We call attention to the instrumental-in addition to the descriptive-role Story Technologies play in ordering contingencies and establishing relationships in the wake of health crises. DISCUSSION: By connecting each type of knowledge production with the systems of power it reinforces or disrupts, we illustrate how Story Technologies do ideological work. These findings encourage research from pluriversal perspectives and advocacy for measures that promote more inclusive modes of knowledge production.
Subject(s)
Epidemics , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola , Humans , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Africa, Western/epidemiology , Anthropology, CulturalABSTRACT
PURPOSE: To investigate the prevalence, patterns, and predictors of SARS-CoV-2 RNA and culturable virus in tears of a case-ascertained household cohort. DESIGN: Prospective, longitudinal case-ascertained household cohort identified through convenience sampling. METHODS: This analysis was restricted to individuals who were non-hospitalized, symptomatic, and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by nasal RT-PCR. Tears and anterior nasal biospecimens were serially collected throughout the acute period. Tears specimens were collected by the study staff using Schirmer test strips, and nasal specimens were self-collected. For both, SARS-CoV-2 RNA was quantified using qRT-PCR, and culturable virus was detected using presence of cytopathic effect (CPE) in tissue culture; positive CPE was confirmed by a qRT-PCR step. A series of cross-sectional unadjusted analyses were performed investigating the relationship between different sociodemographic determinants and biological factors associated with tears RNA positivity. RESULTS: Among the 83 SARS-CoV-2 infected participants, 10 (12%) had at least one RNA-positive tears specimen. Amongst these 10, 5 (50%) had concurrent presence of culturable virus, at a median of 7 days postsymptom onset (IQR: 4-7 days) (absolute range: 4-8 days). CONCLUSIONS: In this longitudinal cohort, we found evidence of culturable virus in the tears of a small proportion of nonhospitalized SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals. Current public health infection precautions do not account for transmission via tears, so these findings may improve our understanding of potential sources of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and contribute to developing future guidelines.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , RNA, Viral , SARS-CoV-2 , Tears , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/virology , COVID-19/diagnosis , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Male , Female , RNA, Viral/genetics , RNA, Viral/analysis , Prospective Studies , Tears/virology , Prevalence , Adult , Middle Aged , Cross-Sectional Studies , COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing , Eye Infections, Viral/virology , Eye Infections, Viral/epidemiology , Eye Infections, Viral/diagnosis , Family Characteristics , Aged , Longitudinal StudiesABSTRACT
Background: Transmission by unreported cases has been proposed as a reason for the 2013-2016 Ebola virus (EBOV) epidemic decline in West Africa, but studies that test this hypothesis are lacking. We examined a transmission chain within social networks in Sukudu village to assess spread and transmission burnout. Methods: Network data were collected in 2 phases: (1) serological and contact information from Ebola cases (n = 48, including unreported); and (2) interviews (n = 148), including Ebola survivors (n = 13), to identify key social interactions. Social links to the transmission chain were used to calculate cumulative incidence proportion as the number of EBOV-infected people in the network divided by total network size. Results: The sample included 148 participants and 1522 contacts, comprising 10 social networks: 3 had strong links (>50% of cases) to the transmission chain: household sharing (largely kinship), leisure time, and talking about important things (both largely non-kin). Overall cumulative incidence for these networks was 37 of 311 (12%). Unreported cases did not have higher network centrality than reported cases. Conclusions: Although this study did not find evidence that explained epidemic decline in Sukudu, it excluded potential reasons (eg, unreported cases, herd immunity) and identified 3 social interactions in EBOV transmission.
ABSTRACT
Background: It remains unclear if there is a dose-dependent relationship between exposure risk to Ebola virus (EBOV) and severity of illness. Methods: From September 2016 to July 2017, we conducted a cross-sectional, community-based study of Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases and household contacts of several transmission chains in Kono District, Sierra Leone. We analyzed 154 quarantined households, comprising both reported EVD cases and their close contacts. We used epidemiological surveys and blood samples to define severity of illness as no infection, pauci-/asymptomatic infection, unrecognized EVD, reported EVD cases who survived, or reported EVD decedents. We determine seropositivity with the Filovirus Animal Nonclinical Group EBOV glycoprotein immunoglobulin G antibody test. We defined levels of exposure risk from 8 questions and considered contact with body fluid as maximum exposure risk. Results: Our analysis included 76 reported EVD cases (both decedents and survivors) and 421 close contacts. Among these contacts, 40 were seropositive (22 paucisymptomatic and 18 unrecognized EVD), accounting for 34% of the total 116 EBOV infections. Higher exposure risks were associated with having had EBOV infection (maximum risk: adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 12.1 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 5.8-25.4; trend test: Pâ <â .001) and more severe illness (maximum risk: AOR, 25.2 [95% CI, 6.2-102.4]; trend test: Pâ <â .001). Conclusions: This community-based study of EVD cases and contacts provides epidemiological evidence of a dose-dependent relationship between exposure risk and severity of illness, which may partially explain why pauci-/asymptomatic EBOV infection, less severe disease, and unrecognized EVD occurs.
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BACKGROUND: In the United States, Black Americans are suffering from a significantly disproportionate incidence of COVID-19. Going beyond mere epidemiological tallying, the potential for racial-justice interventions, including reparations payments, to ameliorate these disparities has not been adequately explored. METHODS: We compared the COVID-19 time-varying Rt curves of relatively disparate polities in terms of social equity (South Korea vs. Louisiana). Next, we considered a range of reproductive ratios to back-calculate the transmission rates ßiâj for 4â¯cells of the simplified next-generation matrix (from which R0 is calculated for structured models) for the outbreak in Louisiana. Lastly, we considered the potential structural effects monetary payments as reparations for Black American descendants of persons enslaved in the U.S. would have had on pre-intervention ßiâj and consequently R0. RESULTS: Once their respective epidemics begin to propagate, Louisiana displays Rt values with an absolute difference of 1.3-2.5 compared to South Korea. It also takes Louisiana more than twice as long to bring Rt below 1. Reasoning through the consequences of increased equity via matrix transmission models, we demonstrate how the benefits of a successful reparations program (reflected in the ratio ßbâb/ßwâw) could reduce R0 by 31-68%. DISCUSSION: While there are compelling moral and historical arguments for racial-injustice interventions such as reparations, our study considers potential health benefits in the form of reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk. A restitutive program targeted towards Black individuals would not only decrease COVID-19 risk for recipients of the wealth redistribution; the mitigating effects would also be distributed across racial groups, benefiting the population at large.
Subject(s)
Black or African American , COVID-19 , Humans , Louisiana , Republic of Korea , SARS-CoV-2 , United States/epidemiologyABSTRACT
Background As of 26 March 2021, the Africa CDC had reported 4,159,055 cases of COVID-19 and 111,357 deaths among the 55 African Union Member States; however, no country has published a nationally representative serosurvey as of May 2021. Such data are vital for understanding the pandemic's progression on the continent, evaluating containment measures, and policy planning. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional, nationally representative, age-stratified serosurvey in Sierra Leone in March 2021 by randomly selecting 120 Enumeration Areas throughout the country and 10 randomly selected households in each of these. One to two persons per selected household were interviewed to collect information on socio-demographics, symptoms suggestive of COVID-19, exposure history to laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, and history of COVID-19 illness. Capillary blood was collected by fingerstick, and blood samples were tested using the Hangzhou Biotest Biotech RightSign COVID-19 IgG/IgM Rapid Test Cassette. Total seroprevalence was was estimated after applying sampling weights. Findings The overall weighted seroprevalence was 2.6% (95% CI 1.9-3.4). This is 43 times higher than the reported number of cases. Rural seropositivity was 1.8% (95% CI 1.0-2.5), and urban seropositivity was 4.2% (95% CI 2.6-5.7). Interpretation Although overall seroprevalence was low compared to countries in Europe and the Americas (suggesting relatively successful containment in Sierra Leone), our findings indicate enormous underreporting of active cases. This has ramifications for the country's third wave (which started in June 2021), where the average number of daily reported cases was 87 by the end of the month: this could potentially be on the order of 3,700 actual infections, calling for stronger containment measures in a country with only 0.2% of people fully vaccinated. It may also reflect significant underreporting of incidence and mortality across the continent.
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: As of 26 March 2021, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention had reported 4 159 055 cases of COVID-19 and 111 357 deaths among the 55 African Union member states; however, no country has published a nationally representative serosurvey as of October 2021. Such data are vital for understanding the pandemic's progression on the continent, evaluating containment measures, and policy planning. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional, nationally representative, age-stratified serosurvey in Sierra Leone in March 2021 by randomly selecting 120 Enumeration Areas throughout the country and 10 randomly selected households in each of these. One to two persons per selected household were interviewed to collect information on sociodemographics, symptoms suggestive of COVID-19, exposure history to laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, and history of COVID-19 illness. Capillary blood was collected by fingerstick, and blood samples were tested using the Hangzhou Biotest Biotech RightSign COVID-19 IgG/IgM Rapid Test Cassette. Total seroprevalence was estimated after applying sampling weights. RESULTS: The overall weighted seroprevalence was 2.6% (95% CI 1.9% to 3.4%). This was 43 times higher than the reported number of cases. Rural seropositivity was 1.8% (95% CI 1.0% to 2.5%), and urban seropositivity was 4.2% (95% CI 2.6% to 5.7%). DISCUSSION: Overall seroprevalence was low compared with countries in Europe and the Americas (suggesting relatively successful containment in Sierra Leone). This has ramifications for the country's third wave (which started in June 2021), during which the average number of daily reported cases was 87 by the end of the month:this could potentially be on the order of 3700 actual infections per day, calling for stronger containment measures in a country with only 0.2% of people fully vaccinated. It may also reflect significant under-reporting of incidence and mortality across the continent.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Cross-Sectional Studies , Humans , Prevalence , Seroepidemiologic Studies , Sierra Leone/epidemiologyABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: In Liberia, an estimated 32% of children under 5 are stunted. Malnutrition and hunger worsened during the country's civil war and were further exacerbated by the 2014-2016 outbreak of Ebola virus disease. Studies examining adherence to recommended infant and young child feeding practices frequently do so with an emphasis on the knowledge, attitudes and beliefs of mothers and caregivers. Often overlooked are the structural factors that enable or constrain their agency to practise evidence-based recommendations. METHODS: Between July and December 2017, we surveyed 100 Liberian mothers to assess the sociodemographic factors associated with the risk of severe acute malnutrition in children in Maryland County, Liberia. We also conducted 50 in-depth interviews at two government health facilities to qualitatively explore mothers' experiences, as well as health workers' understandings of the determinants of malnutrition in the region. We applied logistic regression to analyse quantitative data and inductive content analysis to thematically interpret qualitative data. RESULTS: Mothers were less likely to have a child with severe acute malnutrition if they had an income greater than US$50 per month (adjusted OR (aOR)=0.14, p<0.001), were literate (aOR=0.21, p=0.009) or exclusively breast fed during the first 6 months of life (aOR=0.18, p=0.049); they were more likely to have a child with severe acute malnutrition if they were married or in domestic partnerships (aOR=8.41, p<0.001). In-depth interviews elucidated several social, economic and programmatic factors that shaped suboptimal feeding practices, as well as decisions for and against seeking formal care for malnutrition. DISCUSSION: The lived experiences of Liberian mothers and health workers illustrate that child malnutrition is a direct consequence of abject poverty, food insecurity, illiteracy, the precarious nature of formal and informal work, and the lack of robust social protection. Behaviour change and health education interventions that do not seek to alleviate structural barriers to compliance are unlikely to be effective.
ABSTRACT
Background In the United States, Black Americans are suffering from significantly disproportionate incidence and mortality rates of COVID-19. The potential for racial-justice interventions, including reparations payments, to ameliorate these disparities has not been adequately explored. Methods We compared the COVID-19 time-varying R t curves of relatively disparate polities in terms of social equity (South Korea vs. Louisiana). Next, we considered a range of reproductive ratios to back-calculate the transmission rates ß iâj for 4 cells of the simplified next-generation matrix (from which R 0 is calculated for structured models) for the outbreak in Louisiana. Lastly, we modeled the effect that monetary payments as reparations for Black American descendants of persons enslaved in the U.S. would have had on pre-intervention ß iâj . Results Once their respective epidemics begin to propagate, Louisiana displays R t values with an absolute difference of 1.3 to 2.5 compared to South Korea. It also takes Louisiana more than twice as long to bring R t below 1. We estimate that increased equity in transmission consistent with the benefits of a successful reparations program (reflected in the ratio ß bâb / ß wâw ) could reduce R 0 by 31 to 68%. Discussion While there are compelling moral and historical arguments for racial injustice interventions such as reparations, our study describes potential health benefits in the form of reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk. As we demonstrate, a restitutive program targeted towards Black individuals would not only decrease COVID-19 risk for recipients of the wealth redistribution; the mitigating effects would be distributed across racial groups, benefitting the population at large.
ABSTRACT
The continued inordinate demise from communicable pathogens in the global South is not the result of an intractable problem thwarting our best efforts to prevent and cure disease; we have the means. Rather, as an accomplice to contemporary imperialism, public health manages (as a profession) and maintains (as an academic discipline) global health inequity. It does this through 'bourgeois empiricist' models of disease causation, which serve protected affluence by uncritically reifying inequitable social relations in the modern/colonial matrix of power and making them appear commonsensical.