Uncertainty analysis for infrasound waveform inversion: Application to explosion yield estimation.

While the acoustic waveform inversion method is increasingly used in geophysical acoustics to constrain source parameters, the inversion results are often provided without any uncertainty analysis. This study presents a probabilistic representation for acoustic waveform inversion and method to evaluate the inversion uncertainty using ground-truth data. A posteriori probability distribution of source estimate is described by a priori waveform misfit covariance and the variance of acoustic source model. The probabilistic framework is applied to local explosion infrasound to estimate the yields of explosions and uncertainty. Estimated yields showed overall good agreement with the true yields (less than 25% errors). The uncertainty of the estimated yield is represented by the sum of the waveform inversion uncertainty and source model uncertainty. It is shown that the yield uncertainty attributed to local infrasound inversion (within 10 km) is as small as the uncertainty caused by 10% prediction errors in the acoustic source model. These results indicate that the acoustic source model uncertainty should also be considered for accurate yield estimation and that local infrasound can be a valuable tool to understand the magnitude of the source uncertainty.

Mass, height of burst, and source-receiver distance constraints on the acoustic coda phase delay method.

This research uses the acoustic coda phase delay method to estimate relative changes in air temperature between explosions with varying event masses and heights of burst. It also places a bound on source-receiver distance for the method. Previous studies used events with different shapes, height of bursts, and masses and recorded the acoustic codas at source-receiver distances less than 1 km. This research further explores the method using explosions that differ in mass (by up to an order of magnitude) and are placed at varying heights. Source-receiver distances also cover an area out to 7 km. Relative air temperature change estimates are compared to complementary meteorological observations. Results show that two explosions that differ by an order of magnitude cannot be used with this method because their propagation times in the near field and their fundamental frequencies are different. These differences are expressed as inaccuracies in the relative air temperature change estimates. An order of magnitude difference in mass is also shown to bias estimates higher. Small differences in height of burst do not affect the accuracy of the method. An upper bound of 1 km on source-receiver distance is provided based on the standard deviation characteristics of the estimates.

Wolves adapt territory size, not pack size to local habitat quality.

1. Although local variation in territorial predator density is often correlated with habitat quality, the causal mechanism underlying this frequently observed association is poorly understood and could stem from facultative adjustment in either group size or territory size. 2. To test between these alternative hypotheses, we used a novel statistical framework to construct a winter population-level utilization distribution for wolves (Canis lupus) in northern Ontario, which we then linked to a suite of environmental variables to determine factors influencing wolf space use. Next, we compared habitat quality metrics emerging from this analysis as well as an independent measure of prey abundance, with pack size and territory size to investigate which hypothesis was most supported by the data. 3. We show that wolf space use patterns were concentrated near deciduous, mixed deciduous/coniferous and disturbed forest stands favoured by moose (Alces alces), the predominant prey species in the diet of wolves in northern Ontario, and in proximity to linear corridors, including shorelines and road networks remaining from commercial forestry activities. 4. We then demonstrate that landscape metrics of wolf habitat quality - projected wolf use, probability of moose occupancy and proportion of preferred land cover classes - were inversely related to territory size but unrelated to pack size. 5. These results suggest that wolves in boreal ecosystems alter territory size, but not pack size, in response to local variation in habitat quality. This could be an adaptive strategy to balance trade-offs between territorial defence costs and energetic gains due to resource acquisition. That pack size was not responsive to habitat quality suggests that variation in group size is influenced by other factors such as intraspecific competition between wolf packs.

Woodland caribou habitat selection patterns in relation to predation risk and forage abundance depend on reproductive state.

The ideal free distribution assumes that animals select habitats that are beneficial to their fitness. When the needs of dependent offspring differ from those of the parent, ideal habitat selection patterns could vary with the presence or absence of offspring. We test whether habitat selection depends on reproductive state due to top-down or bottom-up influences on the fitness of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou), a threatened, wide-ranging herbivore. We combined established methods of fitting resource and step selection functions derived from locations of collared animals in Ontario with newer techniques, including identifying calf status from video collar footage and seasonal habitat selection analysis through latent selection difference functions. We found that females with calves avoided predation risk and proximity to roads more strongly than females without calves within their seasonal ranges. At the local scale, females with calves avoided predation more strongly than females without calves. Females with calves increased predation avoidance but not selection for food availability upon calving, whereas females without calves increased selection for food availability across the same season. These behavioral responses suggest that habitat selection by woodland caribou is influenced by reproductive state, such that females with calves at heel use habitat selection to offset the increased vulnerability of their offspring to predation risk.

Compensatory selection for roads over natural linear features by wolves in northern Ontario: Implications for caribou conservation.

Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in Ontario are a threatened species that have experienced a substantial retraction of their historic range. Part of their decline has been attributed to increasing densities of anthropogenic linear features such as trails, roads, railways, and hydro lines. These features have been shown to increase the search efficiency and kill rate of wolves. However, it is unclear whether selection for anthropogenic linear features is additive or compensatory to selection for natural (water) linear features which may also be used for travel. We studied the selection of water and anthropogenic linear features by 52 resident wolves (Canis lupus x lycaon) over four years across three study areas in northern Ontario that varied in degrees of forestry activity and human disturbance. We used Euclidean distance-based resource selection functions (mixed-effects logistic regression) at the seasonal range scale with random coefficients for distance to water linear features, primary/secondary roads/railways, and hydro lines, and tertiary roads to estimate the strength of selection for each linear feature and for several habitat types, while accounting for availability of each feature. Next, we investigated the trade-off between selection for anthropogenic and water linear features. Wolves selected both anthropogenic and water linear features; selection for anthropogenic features was stronger than for water during the rendezvous season. Selection for anthropogenic linear features increased with increasing density of these features on the landscape, while selection for natural linear features declined, indicating compensatory selection of anthropogenic linear features. These results have implications for woodland caribou conservation. Prey encounter rates between wolves and caribou seem to be strongly influenced by increasing linear feature densities. This behavioral mechanism-a compensatory functional response to anthropogenic linear feature density resulting in decreased use of natural travel corridors-has negative consequences for the viability of woodland caribou.