Development and validation of an online tool for assessment of health care providers' management of suspected malaria in an area, where transmission has been interrupted.

BACKGROUND: The alertness and practice of health care providers (HCPs) in the correct management of suspected malaria (CMSM) (vigilance) is a central component of malaria surveillance following elimination, and it must be established before malaria elimination certification can be granted. This study was designed to develop and validate a rapid tool, Simulated Malaria Online Tool (SMOT), to evaluate HCPs' practice in relation to the CMSM. METHODS: The study was conducted in East Azerbaijan Province, Islamic Republic of Iran, where no malaria transmission has been reported since 2005. An online tool presenting a suspected malaria case for detection of HCPs' failures in recognition, diagnosis, treatment and reporting was developed based on literature review and expert opinion. A total of 360 HCPs were allocated to two groups. In one group their performance was tested by simulated patient (SP) methodology as gold standard, and one month later by the online tool to allow assessment of its sensitivity. In the other group, they were tested only by the online tool to allow assessment of any possible bias incurred by the exposure to SPs before the tool. RESULTS: The sensitivity of the tool was (98.7%; CI 93.6-99.3). The overall agreement and kappa statistics were 96.6% and 85.6%, respectively. In the group tested by both methods, the failure proportion by SP was 86.1% (CI 80.1-90.8) and by tool 87.2% (CI 81.4-91.7). In the other group, the tool found 85.6% (CI 79.5-90.3) failures. There were no significant differences in detecting failures within or between the groups. CONCLUSION: The SMOT tool not only showed high validity for detecting HCPs' failures in relation to CMSM, but it had high rates of agreement with the real-world situation, where malaria transmission has been interrupted. The tool can be used by program managers to evaluate HCPs' performance and identify sub-groups, whose malaria vigilance should be strengthened. It could also contribute to the evidence base for certification of malaria elimination, and to strengthening prevention of re-establishment of malaria transmission.

Prevention of re-establishment of malaria.

The current consensus on prevention of re-establishment of malaria is based on the following principles: (1) Fundamental role of general health services; (2) Surveillance; (3) Vector control; (4) Border actions; (5) Intersectoral collaboration. These principles are critically reviewed, and it is pointed out that alertness of the general health services to suspected malaria (vigilance) needs to be maintained everywhere, while health education is rational only if targeting high-risk sub-populations. It is argued that prevention of re-establishment of malaria transmission should be integrated with prevention of malaria mortality in cases of imported malaria, and that this requires collaboration with entities dealing with travellers' health and the availability of chemoprophylaxis and other measures for travellers to malaria endemic countries.

Mathematical analysis to prioritise strategies for malaria elimination.

Malaria and some other tropical diseases are currently targeted for elimination and eventually eradication. Since resources are limited, prioritisation of countries or areas for elimination is often necessary. However, this prioritisation is frequently conducted in an ad hoc manner. Lower transmission areas are usually targeted for elimination first, but for some areas this necessitates long and potentially expensive surveillance programs while transmission is eliminated from neighbouring higher transmission areas. We use a mathematical model to compare the implications of prioritisation choices in reducing overall burden and costs. We show that when the duration of the elimination program is independent of the transmission potential, burden is always reduced most by targeting high transmission areas first, but to reduce costs the optimal ordering depends on the actual transmission levels. In general, when overall transmission potential is low and the surveillance cost per secondary case compared to the cost per imported case is low, targeting the higher transmission area for elimination first is favoured.

Mapping multiple components of malaria risk for improved targeting of elimination interventions.

There is a long history of considering the constituent components of malaria risk and the malaria transmission cycle via the use of mathematical models, yet strategic planning in endemic countries tends not to take full advantage of available disease intelligence to tailor interventions. National malaria programmes typically make operational decisions about where to implement vector control and surveillance activities based upon simple categorizations of annual parasite incidence. With technological advances, an enormous opportunity exists to better target specific malaria interventions to the places where they will have greatest impact by mapping and evaluating metrics related to a variety of risk components, each of which describes a different facet of the transmission cycle. Here, these components and their implications for operational decision-making are reviewed. For each component, related mappable malaria metrics are also described which may be measured and evaluated by malaria programmes seeking to better understand the determinants of malaria risk. Implementing tailored programmes based on knowledge of the heterogeneous distribution of the drivers of malaria transmission rather than only consideration of traditional metrics such as case incidence has the potential to result in substantial improvements in decision-making. As programmes improve their ability to prioritize their available tools to the places where evidence suggests they will be most effective, elimination aspirations may become increasingly feasible.

Development of WHO Recommendations for the Final Phase of Elimination and Prevention of Re-Establishment of Malaria.

The WHO recommends that all affected countries work toward the elimination of malaria, even those still experiencing a high burden of disease. However, malaria programs in the final phase of elimination or those working to prevent re-establishment of transmission after elimination could benefit from specific evidence-based recommendations for these settings as part of comprehensive and quality-controlled malaria guidelines. The WHO convened an external guideline development group to formulate recommendations for interventions to reduce or prevent malaria transmission in areas with very low- to low-transmission levels and those that have eliminated malaria. In addition, several interventions that could be deployed in higher burden areas to accelerate elimination, such as mass drug administration, were reviewed. Systematic reviews were conducted that synthesized and evaluated evidence for the benefits and harms of public health interventions and summarized critical contextual factors from a health systems perspective. A total of 12 recommendations were developed, with five related to mass interventions that could be deployed at higher transmission levels and seven that would be most appropriate for programs in areas close to elimination or those working to prevent re-establishment of transmission. Four chemoprevention, two active case detection, and one vector control interventions were positively recommended, whereas two chemoprevention and three active case detection interventions were not recommended by the WHO. None of the recommendations were classified as strong given the limited and low-quality evidence base. Approaches to conducting higher quality research in very low- to low-transmission settings to improve the strength of WHO recommendations are discussed.

Nonrandomized controlled trial of artesunate plus sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine with or without primaquine for preventing posttreatment circulation of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes.

Artemisinin combination therapies eliminate immature Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes but not mature gametocytes, which may persist for up to 1 month posttreatment. A single dose of primaquine, which is inexpensive and effective against mature gametocytes, could be added to further reduce the potential for posttreatment parasite transmission. Currently, we have few data regarding the effectiveness or safety of doing so. We collected data from 21 therapeutic efficacy trials of the National Antimalarial Drug Resistance Monitoring System of India conducted during 2009 to 2010, wherein 9 sites used single-dose primaquine (0.75 mg/kg of body weight) administered on day 2 along with artesunate plus sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (AS+SP) while 12 did not. We estimated the effect of primaquine on posttreatment gametocyte clearance and the total number of gametocyte-weeks as determined by microscopy. We compared the median area under the curve for gametocyte density and reported adverse events. One thousand three hundred thirty-five patients completed the antimalarial drug treatment. Adjusting for region, primaquine increased the rate of gametocyte clearance (hazard ratio, 1.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1 to 3.3), prevented 45% (95% CI, 19 to 62) of posttreatment gametocyte-weeks, and decreased the area under the gametocyte density curve over the 28-day follow-up compared to AS+SP alone (P value = 0.01). The results were robust to other adjustment sets, and the estimated effect of primaquine increased during sensitivity analysis on the measurement of exposure time. No serious adverse events were detected. In conclusion, the addition of primaquine to AS+SP was effective in reducing the posttreatment presence of P. falciparum gametocytes. Primaquine was well tolerated and could be administered along with an artemisinin combination therapy as the first-line therapy.

Epidemiology of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytemia in India: prevalence, age structure, risk factors and the role of a predictive score for detection.

OBJECTIVE: To characterise the epidemiology of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytemia and determine the prevalence, age structure and the viability of a predictive model for detection. METHODS: We collected data from 21 therapeutic efficacy trials conducted in India during 2009-2010 and estimated the contribution of each age group to the reservoir of transmission. We built a predictive model for gametocytemia and calculated the diagnostic utility of different score cut-offs from our risk score. RESULTS: Gametocytemia was present in 18% (248/1 335) of patients and decreased with age. Adults constituted 43%, school-age children 45% and under fives 12% of the reservoir for potential transmission. Our model retained age, sex, region and previous antimalarial drug intake as predictors of gametocytemia. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.76 (95%CI:0.73,0.78), and a cut-off of 14 or more on a risk score ranging from 0 to 46 provided 91% (95%CI:88,95) sensitivity and 33% (95%CI:31,36) specificity for detecting gametocytemia. CONCLUSIONS: Gametocytemia was common in India and varied by region. Notably, adults contributed substantially to the reservoir for potential transmission. Predictive modelling to generate a clinical algorithm for detecting gametocytemia did not provide sufficient discrimination for targeting interventions.

RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine-proven safe and effective?

In October, 2021, WHO recommended that the RTS,S malaria vaccine, with its strong safety profile and high impact, be provided to children from age 5 months in regions with moderate to high Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission. The evidence base included phase 3 trials in seven African countries and an ongoing malaria vaccine implementation programme (MVIP) in three African countries. We highlight problems with the MVIP mortality data, including potential confounding, inappropriate use of severe malaria as a surrogate marker, a statistically non-significant effect, and assessment after 2 years instead of the stipulated 4 years, which could have inflated the benefits and deflated the risks associated with the vaccine. We conclude that the claimed impact of the MVIP on mortality is not based on enough scientific evidence and that the MVIP findings do not rule out the possibility of increased mortality among vaccinated girls compared with vaccinated boys, as observed in the phase 3 studies. The MVIP should adhere fully to the planned analyses and the data should be made available for independent assessment. Roll-out of the vaccine elsewhere should include rigorous evaluation, especially of its safety.

Quantifying the evolution and impact of antimalarial drug resistance: drug use, spread of resistance, and drug failure over a 12-year period in Papua New Guinea.

BACKGROUND. Antimalarial use is a key factor driving drug resistance and reduced treatment effectiveness in Plasmodium falciparum malaria, but there are few formal, quantitative analyses of this process. METHODS. We analyzed drug usage, drug failure rates, and the frequencies of mutations and haplotypes known to be associated with drug resistance over a 12-year period (1991-2002) in a site in Papua New Guinea. This period included 2 successive treatment policies: amodiaquine (AQ) or chloroquine (CQ) from 1991 through 2000 and their subsequent replacement by sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) plus AQ or SP plus CQ. RESULTS. Drug use approximated 1 treatment per person-year and was associated with increasing frequencies of pfcrt and pfmdr1 mutations and of treatment failure. The frequency of pfdhfr mutations also increased, especially after the change in treatment policy. Treatment failure rates multiplied by 3.5 between 1996 and 2000 but then decreased dramatically after treatment policy change. CONCLUSIONS. With high levels of resistance to CQ, AQ, and SP, the deployment of the combination of both drugs appears to increase clinical effectiveness but does not decelerate growth of resistance. Our estimates of mutation and haplotype frequencies provide estimates of selection coefficients acting in this environment, which are key parameters for understanding the dynamics of resistance.

Prophylactic efficacy of primaquine for preventing Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax parasitaemia in travelers: A meta-analysis and systematic review.

BACKGROUND: With increased international travel over the world the need for safe and effective chemoprophylaxis for malaria is as great as ever. The choice of regimen is difficult, as effectiveness should be weighted against potential adverse effects. Although, some studies have reported high prophylactic efficacy of primaquine, there is no comprehensive evidence comparing its prophylactic effectiveness as well as toxicity. To fill the gap, this systematic review and meta-analysis study was carried out. METHODS: Using MeSH terms, 756 records were detected through searching "Pubmed", "Embase","Web of Science"and "Cochrane" databases. From these,7 relevant full-text articles with 14 comparisons for final quantitative meta-analysis were included in our review. In order to make a comparison between the studies, Risk Ratios(RRs) and their 95% confidence intervals(CIs) were estimated. RESULTS: Overall,74% reduction in the incidence of parasitaemia by primaquine versus other prophylactic regimens was estimated(RRoverall = 0.26, CI 95%:0.16-0.41--RRvivax = 0.16, CI 95%:0.07-0.36--RRfalciparum = 0.31, CI 95%:0.18-0.55). The incidence rate ratios for adverse effects showed no statistically significant difference between primaquine and control groups (p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: For persons without G6PD deficiency, who are not pregnant, primaquine is the most effective presently available prophylactic for P. vivax malaria and comparable to such regimens as doxycycline, mefloquine and atovaquone-proguanil for the prevention of P. falciparum malaria.

Mekong malaria. II. Update of malaria, multi-drug resistance and economic development in the Mekong region of Southeast Asia.

In an expansion of the first Mekong Malaria monograph published in 1999, this second monograph updates the malaria database in the countries comprising the Mekong region of Southeast Asia. The update adds another 3 years' information to cover cumulative data from the 6 Mekong countries (Cambodia, China/Yunnan, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand, Viet Nam) for the six-year period 1999-2001. The objective is to generate a more comprehensive regional perspective in what is a global epicenter of drug resistant falciparum malaria, in order to improve malaria control on a regional basis in the context of social and economic change. The further application of geographical information systems (GIS) to the analysis has underscored the overall asymmetry of disease patterns in the region, with increased emphasis on population mobility in disease spread. Of great importance is the continuing expansion of resistance of P. falciparum to antimalarial drugs in common use and the increasing employment of differing drug combinations as a result. The variation in drug policy among the 6 countries still represents a major obstacle to the institution of region-wide restrictions on drug misuse. An important step forward has been the establishment of 36 sentinel sites throughout the 6 countries, with the objective of standardizing the drug monitoring process; while not all sentinel sites are fully operational yet, the initial implementation has already given encouraging results in relation to disease monitoring. Some decreases in malaria mortality have been recorded. The disease patterns delineated by GIS are particularly instructive when focused on inter-country distribution, which is where more local collaborative effort can be made to rationalize resource utilization and policy development. Placing disease data in the context of socio-economic trends within and between countries serves to further identify the needs and the potential for placing emphasis on resource rationalization on a regional basis. Despite the difficulties, the 6-year time frame represented in this monograph gives confidence that the now well established collaboration is becoming a major factor in improving malaria control on a regional basis and hopefully redressing to a substantial degree the key problem of spread of drug resistance regionally and eventually globally.

Reproduction numbers in malaria and their implications.

The malariologist Lewis Wendell Hackett famously observed that, "Like chess, (malaria) is played with a few pieces, but is capable of an infinite variety of situations". This paper discusses one such piece, the Red Queen. Red Queen phenomena arise when an intensification of effort leads to a need for further intensification to maintain the new status quo. Such phenomena represent dangers for current strategies to combat the disease. Understanding reproduction numbers is key to understanding these dangers. In this paper, we show why the variability and dynamics of reproduction numbers is important for analyzing the effects of interventions against malaria. This has importance for both formal modeling of malaria and for planning malaria intervention strategies in the field.

Malaria ecotypes and stratification.

To deal with the variability of malaria, control programmes need to stratify their malaria problem into a number of smaller units. Such stratification may be based on the epidemiology of malaria or on its determinants such as ecology. An ecotype classification was developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) around 1990, and it is time to assess its usefulness for current malaria control as well as for malaria modelling on the basis of published research. Journal and grey literature was searched for articles on malaria or Anopheles combined with ecology or stratification. It was found that all malaria in the world today could be assigned to one or more of the following ecotypes: savanna, plains and valleys; forest and forest fringe; foothill; mountain fringe and northern and southern fringes; desert fringe; coastal and urban. However, some areas are in transitional or mixed zones; furthermore, the implications of any ecotype depend on the biogeographical region, sometimes subregion, and finally, the knowledge on physiography needs to be supplemented by local information on natural, anthropic and health system processes including malaria control. Ecotyping can therefore not be seen as a shortcut to determine control interventions, but rather as a framework to supplement available epidemiological and entomological data so as to assess malaria situations at the local level, think through the particular risks and opportunities and reinforce intersectoral action. With these caveats, it does however emerge that several ecotypic distinctions are well defined and have relatively constant implications for control within certain biogeographic regions. Forest environments in the Indo-malay and the Neotropics are, with a few exceptions, associated with much higher malaria risk than in adjacent areas; the vectors are difficult to control, and the anthropic factors also often converge to impose constraints. Urban malaria in Africa is associated with lower risk than savanna malaria; larval control may be considered though its role is not so far well established. In contrast, urban malaria in the Indian subcontinent is associated with higher risks than most adjacent rural areas, and larval control has a definite, though not exclusive, role. Simulation modelling of cost-effectiveness of malaria control strategies in different scenarios should prioritize ecotypes where malaria control encounters serious technical problems. Further field research on malaria and ecology should be interdisciplinary, especially with geography, and pay more attention to juxtapositions and to anthropic elements, especially migration.

Comparing the effectiveness of malaria vector-control interventions through a mathematical model.

Although some malaria-control programs are beginning to combine insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), little is known about the effectiveness of such combinations. We use a mathematical model to compare the effectiveness of ITNs and IRS with dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) or bendiocarb, applied singly and in combination, in an epidemiological setting based in Namawala, Tanzania, with Anopheles gambiae as the primary vector. Our model indicates that although both IRS (with DDT) and ITNs provide personal protection, humans with only ITNs are better protected than those with only IRS, and suggests that high coverage of IRS with bendiocarb may interrupt transmission, as can simultaneous high coverage of ITNs and IRS with DDT. When adding a second vector-control intervention, it is more effective to cover the unprotected population first. Although our model includes some assumptions and approximations that remain to be addressed, these findings should be useful for prioritizing and designing future field research.

What should vaccine developers ask? Simulation of the effectiveness of malaria vaccines.

BACKGROUND: A number of different malaria vaccine candidates are currently in pre-clinical or clinical development. Even though they vary greatly in their characteristics, it is unlikely that any of them will provide long-lasting sterilizing immunity against the malaria parasite. There is great uncertainty about what the minimal vaccine profile should be before registration is worthwhile; how to allocate resources between different candidates with different profiles; which candidates to consider combining; and what deployment strategies to consider. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We use previously published stochastic simulation models, calibrated against extensive epidemiological data, to make quantitative predictions of the population effects of malaria vaccines on malaria transmission, morbidity and mortality. The models are fitted and simulations obtained via volunteer computing. We consider a range of endemic malaria settings with deployment of vaccines via the Expanded program on immunization (EPI), with and without additional booster doses, and also via 5-yearly mass campaigns for a range of coverages. The simulation scenarios account for the dynamic effects of natural and vaccine induced immunity, for treatment of clinical episodes, and for births, ageing and deaths in the cohort. Simulated pre-erythrocytic vaccines have greatest benefits in low endemic settings (EIR of 84) PEV may lead to increased incidence of severe disease in the long term, if efficacy is moderate to low (<70%). Blood stage vaccines (BSV) are most useful in high transmission settings, and are comparable to PEV for low transmission settings. Combinations of PEV and BSV generally perform little better than the best of the contributing components. A minimum half-life of protection of 2-3 years appears to be a precondition for substantial epidemiological effects. Herd immunity effects can be achieved with even moderately effective (>20%) malaria vaccines (either PEV or BSV) when deployed through mass campaigns targeting all age-groups as well as EPI, and especially if combined with highly efficacious transmission-blocking components. CONCLUSIONS: We present for the first time a stochastic simulation approach to compare likely effects on morbidity, mortality and transmission of a range of malaria vaccines and vaccine combinations in realistic epidemiological and health systems settings. The results raise several issues for vaccine clinical development, in particular appropriateness of vaccine types for different transmission settings; the need to assess transmission to the vector and duration of protection; and the importance of deployment additional to the EPI, which again may make the issue of number of doses required more critical. To test the validity and robustness of our conclusions there is a need for further modeling (and, of course, field research) using alternative formulations for both natural and vaccine induced immunity. Evaluation of alternative deployment strategies outside EPI needs to consider the operational implications of different approaches to mass vaccination.

Estimated global resources needed to attain international malaria control goals.

OBJECTIVE: To provide the international community with an estimate of the amount of financial resources needed to scale up malaria control to reach international goals, including allocations by country, year and intervention as well as an indication of the current funding gap. METHODS: A costing model was used to estimate the total costs of scaling up a set of widely recommended interventions, supporting services and programme strengthening activities in each of the 81 most heavily affected malaria-endemic countries. Two scenarios were evaluated, using different assumptions about the effect of interventions on the needs for diagnosis and treatment. Current health expenditures and funding for malaria control were compared to estimated needs. FINDINGS: A total of US$ 38 to 45 billion will be required from 2006 to 2015. The average cost during this period is US$ 3.8 to 4.5 billion per year. The average costs for Africa are US$ 1.7 billion and US$ 2.2 billion per year in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively; outside Africa, the corresponding costs are US$ 2.1 billion and US$ 2.4 billion. CONCLUSION: While these estimates should not be used as a template for country-level planning, they provide an indication of the scale and scope of resources required and can help donors to collaborate towards meeting a global benchmark and targeting funding to countries in greatest need. The analysis highlights the need for much greater resources to achieve the goals and targets for malaria control set by the international community.