State-specific fertility rate changes across the USA following the first two waves of COVID-19.

STUDY QUESTION: How did the first two coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) waves affect fertility rates in the USA? SUMMARY ANSWER: States differed widely in how their fertility rates changed following the COVID-19 outbreak and these changes were influenced more by state-level economic, racial, political, and social factors than by COVID-19 wave severity. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to already declining fertility rates in the USA, but not equally across states. Identifying drivers of differential changes in fertility rates can help explain variations in demographic shifts across states in the USA and motivate policies that support families in general, not only during crises. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This is an ecological study using state-level data from 50 US states and the District of Columbia (n = 51). The study period extends from 2020 to 2021 with historical data from 2016 to 2019. We identified Wave 1 as the first apex for each state after February 2020 and Wave 2 as the second apex, during Fall/Winter 2020-2021. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: State-level COVID-19 wave severity, defined as case acceleration during each 3-month COVID-19 wave (cases/100 000 population/month), was derived from 7-day weekly moving average COVID-19 case rates from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). State-level fertility rate changes (change in average monthly fertility rate/100 000 women of reproductive age (WRA)/year) were derived from the CDC Bureau of Vital Statistics and from 2020 US Census and University of Virginia 2021 population estimates 9 months after each COVID-19 wave. We performed univariate analyses to describe national and state-level fertility rate changes following each wave, and simple and multivariable linear regression analyses to assess the relation of COVID-19 wave severity and other state-level characteristics with fertility rate changes. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Nationwide, fertility dropped by 17.5 births/month/100 000 WRA/year following Wave 1 and 9.2 births/month/100 000 WRA/year following Wave 2. The declines following Wave 1 were largest among majority-Democrat, more non-White states where people practiced greater social distancing. Greater COVID-19 wave severity was associated with steeper fertility rate decline post-Wave 1 in simple regression, but the association was attenuated when adjusted for other covariates. Adjusting for the economic impact of the pandemic (hypothesized mediator) also attenuated the effect. There was no relation between COVID-19 wave severity and fertility rate change following Wave 2. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Our study harnesses state-level data so individual-level conclusions cannot be inferred. There may be residual confounding in our multivariable regression and we were underpowered to detect some effects. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: The COVID-19 pandemic initially impacted the national fertility rate but, overall, the fertility rate rebounded to the pre-pandemic level following Wave 2. Consistent with prior literature, COVID-19 wave severity did not appear to predict fertility rate change. Economic, racial, political, and social factors influenced state-specific fertility rates during the pandemic more than the severity of the outbreak alone. Future studies in other countries should also consider whether these factors account for internal heterogeneity when examining the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and other crises on fertility. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): L.G.K. received funding from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (R00ES030403), M.C. from the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program (20-A0-00-1005789), and M.L. and E.S. from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (R01ES032808). None of the authors have competing interests. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Evaluating associations of bisphenol and phthalate exposure with time to pregnancy and subfecundity in a New York City pregnancy cohort.

It is important to understand the impact of consumer chemical exposure and fecundity, a couple's measure of probability of successful conception, given approximately 15% of couples experience infertility. Prior research has generally found null associations between bisphenol and phthalate exposure and fecundability, measured via time to pregnancy (TTP). However, this research has not been updated with current chemical exposures and have often lacked diversity in their study populations. We evaluated the associations between common bisphenol and phthalate chemical exposure groups and TTP as well as subfecundity (TTP>12 months) in the New York University Children's Health Study, a diverse pregnancy cohort from 2016 onward. Using first-trimester spot-urine samples to measure chemical exposure and self-reported TTP from first-trimester questionnaires, we observed a significant adverse association between total bisphenol exposure and certain phthalate groups on TTP and odds of subfecundity. Furthermore, in a mixtures analysis to explore the joint effects of the chemical groups on the outcomes, we found evidence of a potential interaction between total bisphenol exposure and low-molecular weight phthalates on TTP. Future research should continue to update our knowledge regarding the complex and potentially interacting effects of these chemicals on reproductive health.

Chronotype and sleep duration interact to influence time to pregnancy: Results from a New York City cohort.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To study associations between nighttime sleep characteristics and time to pregnancy. METHODS: Pregnant people age ≥18 years and<18 weeks' gestation were recruited from 3 New York University Grossman School of Medicine affiliated hospitals in Manhattan and Brooklyn (n = 1428) and enrolled into the New York University Children's Health and Environment Study. Participants in the first trimester of pregnancy were asked to recall their time to pregnancy and their sleep characteristics in the 3 months before conception. RESULTS: Participants who reported sleeping<7 hours per night tended to have shorter time to pregnancy than those who slept 7-9 hours per night (adjusted fecundability odds ratio = 1.16, 95% confidence interval: 0.94, 1.41). Participants with a sleep midpoint of 4 AM or later tended to have longer time to pregnancy compared with those with earlier sleep midpoints (before 4 AM) (adjusted fecundability odds ratio = 0.88, 95% confidence interval: 0.74, 1.04). When stratified by sleep midpoint, sleeping<7 hours was significantly associated with shorter time to pregnancy only among those whose sleep midpoint was before 4 AM (adjusted fecundability odds ratio = 1.33, 95% confidence interval: 1.07, 1.67). CONCLUSIONS: The association of sleep duration with time to pregnancy was modified by chronotype, suggesting that both biological and behavioral aspects of sleep may influence fecundability.