Incorporating patient-centered factors into heart failure readmission risk prediction: A mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: Capturing and incorporating patient-centered factors into 30-day readmission risk prediction after hospitalized heart failure (HF) could improve the modest performance of current models. METHODS: Using a mixed-methods approach, we developed a patient-centered survey and evaluated the additional predictive utility of the survey compared to a traditional readmission risk model (the Krumholz et al. model). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic quantified the performance of both models. We measured the amount of model improvement with the addition of patient-centered factors to the Krumholz et al. model with the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). In an exploratory analysis, we used hierarchical clustering algorithms to identify groups with similar survey responses and tested for differences between clusters using standard descriptive statistics. RESULTS: From 3/24/2014 to 3/12/2015, 183 patients hospitalized with HF were enrolled from an urban, academic health system and followed for 30days after discharge. The Krumholz et al. plus patient-centered factors model had similar-to-slightly lower performance (AUC [95%CI]:0.62 [0.52, 0.71]; goodness-of-fit P=.10) than the Krumholz et al. model (AUC [95%CI]:0.66 [0.57, 0.76]; goodness-of-fit P=.19). The IDI (95%CI) was 0.003 (-0.014,0.020). We identified three patient clusters based on patient-centered survey responses. The clusters differed with respect to gender, self-rated health, employment status, and prior hospitalization frequency (all P<.05). CONCLUSIONS: The addition of patient-centered factors did not improve 30-day readmission model performance. Rather than designing interventions based on predicted readmission risk, tailoring interventions to all patients, based on their characteristics, could inform the design of targeted, readmission reduction strategies.

Heart Failure Home Management Challenges and Reasons for Readmission: a Qualitative Study to Understand the Patient's Perspective.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure patients have high 30-day hospital readmission rates. Interventions designed to prevent readmissions have had mixed success. Understanding heart failure home management through the patient's experience may reframe the readmission "problem" and, ultimately, inform alternative strategies. OBJECTIVE: To understand patient and caregiver challenges to heart failure home management and perceived reasons for readmission. DESIGN: Observational qualitative study. PARTICIPANTS: Heart failure patients were recruited from two hospitals and included those who were hospitalized for heart failure at least twice within 30 days and those who had been recently discharged after their first heart failure admission. APPROACH: Open-ended, semi-structured interviews. Conclusions vetted using focus groups. KEY RESULTS: Semi-structured interviews with 31 patients revealed a combination of physical and socio-emotional influences on patients' home heart failure management. Major themes identified were home management as a struggle between adherence and adaptation, and hospital readmission as a rational choice in response to distressing symptoms. Patients identified uncertainty regarding recommendations, caused by unclear instructions and temporal incongruence between behavior and symptom onset. This uncertainty impaired their competence in making routine management decisions, resulting in a cycle of limit testing and decreasing adherence. Patients reported experiencing hopelessness and frustration in response to perceiving a deteriorating functional status. This led some to a cycle of despair characterized by worsening adherence and negative emotions. As these cycles progressed and distressing symptoms worsened, patients viewed the hospital as the safest place for recovery and not a "negative" outcome. CONCLUSION: Cycles of limit testing and despair represent important patient-centered struggles in managing heart failure. The resulting distress and fear make readmission a rational choice for patients rather than a negative outcome. Interventions (e.g., palliative care) that focus on methods to address these patient-centered factors should be further studied rather than methods to reduce hospital readmissions.

Residential Racial Segregation in Aortic Stenosis Diagnosis and Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation Among Medicare Patients.

Background: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) rates are lower among Black compared with White individuals. However, it is unclear whether racial residential segregation, which remains common in the United States, contributes to observed disparities in TAVI rates. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between county-level racial segregation, and aortic stenosis (AS) diagnosis, management, and outcomes. Methods: We identified Black and White Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries age ≥65 years living in metropolitan areas of the United States (2016-2019). Using the American Community Survey's Black-White residential segregation index, a measure of geographic racial distribution, we determined segregation in each beneficiary's county of residence. Using hierarchical modeling, we determined the association between racial segregation and rates of AS diagnosis, TAVI receipt, and 30-day clinical outcomes (mortality, readmission, stroke). Results: There were 29,264,075 beneficiaries, of whom 22% lived in a high-segregation county. Among Black beneficiaries, high-segregation county residence was associated with decreased rates of AS diagnosis (OR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.96-0.98) and TAVI (OR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.86-0.93) compared with low-segregation county residence. In contrast, among White beneficiaries, high-segregation county residence was associated with higher rates of AS diagnosis (OR: 1.02; 95% CI: 1.02-1.03) and no differences in TAVI (OR: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.99-1.00). Segregation and race were not independently associated with 30-day mortality. Conclusions: Among Black Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries, living in a high-segregation county was independently associated with decreased rates of AS diagnosis and TAVI, an association not seen among White beneficiaries. Residential racial segregation may contribute to racial disparities seen in AS care.

Characterizing the Accuracy of International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision Administrative Claims for Aortic Valve Disease.

BACKGROUND: Administrative claims for aortic stenosis (AS) regurgitation may be useful, but their accuracy and ability to identify individuals at risk for valve-related outcomes have not been well characterized. METHODS: Using echocardiographic (transthoracic echocardiogram [TTE]) reports linked to US Medicare claims, 2017 to 2018, the performance of candidate International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision claims to ascertain AS/aortic regurgitation was evaluated. The optimal performing algorithm was tested against outcomes at 1-year after TTE in a separate 100% sample of US Medicare claims, 2017 to 2019. RESULTS: Of those included in the derivation (N=5497, mean age 74.4±11.0 years, 49.7% female), any AS or aortic regurgitation was present in 24% and 38.8%, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision code I35.0 for identification of any AS was 53.1% and 94.8%, respectively. Among those with an I35.0 code, 40.3% had severe AS. Claims were unable to distinguish disease severity (ie, severe versus nonsevere) or subtype (eg, bicuspid or rheumatic AS), and were insensitive and nonspecific for aortic regurgitation of any severity. Among all beneficiaries who received a TTE (N=4 033 844), adjusting for age, sex, and 27 comorbidities, those with an I35.0 code had a higher adjusted risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.31-1.34]), heart failure hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.37 [95% CI, 1.34-1.41]), and aortic valve replacement (adjusted hazard ratio, 34.96 [95% CI, 33.74-36.22]). CONCLUSIONS: Among US Medicare beneficiaries receiving a TTE, International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision claims, though identifying a population at significant greater risk of valve-related outcomes, failed to identify nearly half of individuals with AS and were unable to distinguish disease severity or subtype. These results argue against the widespread use of International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision claims to screen for patients with AS and suggests the need for improved coding algorithms and alternative systems to extract TTE data for quality improvement and hospital benchmarking.

Association Between Patient-Reported Medication Adherence and Anticoagulation Control.

BACKGROUND: The prevention of thromboembolism events remains challenging in cases of poor medication adherence. Unfortunately, clinical prediction of future adherence has been suboptimal. The objective of this study was to examine the correlation between 2 measures of real-time, self-reported adherence and anticoagulation control. METHODS: The IN-RANGE2 cohort recruited patients initiating warfarin therapy in 3 urban anticoagulation clinics. At each study visit, participants reported adherence using a 100-point visual analogue scale (VAS, marking percentage of pills taken since prior visit on a linear scale) and 7-day recall of pill-taking behavior. Anticoagulation control was measured by between-visit percent time in international normalized ratio range (BVTR), dichotomized at the cohort median. The longitudinal association between adherence and anticoagulation control was estimated using generalized estimating equations, controlling for clinical and demographic characteristics, prior BVTR, and warfarin dose changes. RESULTS: Among 598 participants with 3204 (median 4) visits, the median BVTR was 36.8% (interquartile range 0%-73.9%). Participants reported ≤80% adherence in 182 visits (5.7%) and missed pills in the past 7 days in 377 visits (11.8%). Multivariable regression analysis found poorer anticoagulation control (BVTR <36.8%) in those with a VAS ≤80% (odds ratio 1.89; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-3.18; P = .02) and self-reported change in adherence since last visit (odds ratio 1.55; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-2.01; P = .001). CONCLUSION: Self-reported VAS medication adherence at a clinic visit and changes in reported adherence since the last visit are independently associated with BVTR. Clinicians may gain additional insight into patients' medication adherence by incorporating this information into patient management.