Dolutegravir- Versus Efavirenz-Based Treatment in Pregnancy: Impact on Red Blood Cell Folate Concentrations in Pregnant Women and Their Infants.

In IMPAACT 2010/VESTED, pregnant women were randomized to initiate dolutegravir (DTG)+emtricitabine (FTC)/tenofovir alafenamide (TAF), DTG+FTC/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), or efavirenz (EFV)/FTC/TDF. We assessed red blood cell folate concentrations (RBC-folate) at maternal study entry and delivery, and infant birth. RBC-folate outcomes were: 1) maternal change entry to delivery (trajectory), 2) infant, 3) ratio of infant-to-maternal delivery. Generalized estimating equation models for each log(folate) outcome were fit to estimate adjusted geometric mean ratio (Adj-GMR)/GMR trajectories (Adj-GMRT) of each arm comparison in 340 mothers and 310 infants. Overall, 90% of mothers received folic acid supplements and 78% lived in Africa. At entry, median maternal age was 25 years, gestational age was 22 weeks, CD4 count was 482 cells/mm3 and log10HIV RNA was 3 copies/mL. Entry RBC-folate was similar across arms. Adj-GMRT of maternal folate was 3% higher in the DTG+FTC/TAF versus EFV/FTC/TDF arm (1.03, 95%CI 1.00, 1.06). The DTG+FTC/TAF arm had an 8% lower infant-maternal folate ratio (0.92, 95%CI 0.78, 1.09) versus EFV/FTC/TDF. Results are consistent with no clinically meaningful differences between arms for all RBC-folate outcomes and they suggest that cellular uptake of folate and folate transport to the infant do not differ in pregnant women starting DTG- vs. EFV-based ART.

Weight Changes and Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes With Dolutegravir- and Tenofovir Alafenamide Fumarate-Containing Antiretroviral Treatment Regimens During Pregnancy and Postpartum.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated associations between antepartum weight change and adverse pregnancy outcomes and between antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens and week 50 postpartum body mass index in IMPAACT 2010. METHODS: Women with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 in 9 countries were randomized 1:1:1 at 14-28 weeks' gestational age (GA) to start dolutegravir (DTG) + emtricitabine (FTC)/tenofovir alafenamide fumarate (TAF) versus DTG + FTC/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) versus efavirenz (EFV)/FTC/TDF. Insufficient antepartum weight gain was defined using Institute of Medicine guidelines. Cox-proportional hazards regression models were used to evaluate the association between antepartum weight change and adverse pregnancy outcomes: stillbirth (≥20 weeks' GA), preterm delivery (<37 weeks' GA), small size for GA (<10th percentile), and a composite of these endpoints. RESULTS: A total of 643 participants were randomized: 217 to the DTG + FTC/TAF, 215 to the DTG + FTC/TDF, and 211 to the EFV/FTC/TDF arm. Baseline medians were as follows: GA, 21.9 weeks; HIV RNA, 903 copies/mL; and CD4 cell count, 466/µL. Insufficient weight gain was least frequent with DTG + FTC/TAF (15.0%) versus DTG + FTC/TDF (23.6%) and EFV/FTC/TDF (30.4%). Women in the DTG + FTC/TAF arm had the lowest rate of composite adverse pregnancy outcome. Low antepartum weight gain was associated with higher hazard of composite adverse pregnancy outcome (hazard ratio, 1.44 [95% confidence interval, 1.04-2.00]) and small size for GA (1.48 [.99-2.22]). More women in the DTG + FTC/TAF arm had a body mass index ≥25 (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) at 50 weeks postpartum (54.7%) versus the DTG + FTC/TDF (45.2%) and EFV/FTC/TDF (34.2%) arms. CONCLUSIONS: Antepartum weight gain on DTG regimens was protective against adverse pregnancy outcomes typically associated with insufficient weight gain, supportive of guidelines recommending DTG-based ART for women starting ART during pregnancy. Interventions to mitigate postpartum weight gain are needed.

How much could anemia-related interventions reduce the HIV disparity in adverse birth outcomes?

Women and other people of childbearing potential living with HIV (WLHIV) have a higher risk of adverse birth outcomes than those without HIV (WWHIV). A higher risk of anemia in WLHIV could partially explain this disparity. Using a birth outcomes surveillance study in Botswana, we emulated target trials corresponding to currently available or feasible interventions on anemia. The first target trial evaluated two interventions: initiate multiple micronutrient supplementation (MMS), and MMS or iron and folic acid supplementation by 24 weeks gestation. The remaining target trials evaluated the interventions: eliminate anemia before pregnancy; and jointly eliminate anemia before pregnancy and initiate MMS. We estimated the observed disparity in adverse birth outcomes between WLHIV and WWHIV and compared the observed disparity measure (ODM) to the counterfactual disparity measure (CDM) under each intervention. Of 137,499 individuals (22% WLHIV), the observed risk of any adverse birth outcome was 26.0% in WWHIV and 34.5% in WLHIV (ODM, 8.5% [95% CI, 7.9-9.1%]). CDMs (95% CIs) ranged from 6.6% (4.8-8.4%) for the intervention to eliminate anemia and initiate MMS to 8.4% (7.7-9.1%) for the intervention to eliminate anemia only. Preventing anemia and expanding MMS may reduce HIV disparities in birth outcomes, but interventions with greater impact should be identified.

Lamivudine dosing for preterm infants exposed to HIV: a population pharmacokinetic modelling and simulation study.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a pragmatic twice daily lamivudine dosing strategy for preterm infants from 24 to 37 completed weeks of gestation. METHODS: Data were combined from eight pharmacokinetic studies in neonates and infants receiving lamivudine oral solution. A population pharmacokinetic model was developed using non-linear mixed effects regression. Different lamivudine dosing strategies, stratified by gestational age at birth (GA) bands, were simulated in a virtual population of preterm infants, aimed at maintaining lamivudine drug exposures (AUC0-12) within a reference target range of 2.95 to 13.25 µg·h/mL, prior to switching to WHO-weight band doses when ≥4 weeks of age and weighing ≥3 kg. RESULTS: A total of 154 infants (59% female) contributed 858 lamivudine plasma concentrations. Median (range) GA at birth was 38 (27-41) weeks. At the time of first pharmacokinetic sampling infants were older with median postnatal age (PNA) of 6.3 (0.52-26.6) weeks. Lamivudine concentrations were described by a one-compartment model, with CL/F and V/F allometrically scaled to weight. Maturation of CL/F was described using an Emax model based on PNA. CL/F was also adjusted on GA to allow extrapolation for extreme prematurity. Simulations predicted an optimal lamivudine dosing for infants GA ≥24 to <30 weeks of 2 mg/kg twice daily from birth until weighing 3 kg; and for GA ≥30 to <37 weeks, 2 mg/kg twice daily for the first 4 weeks of life, followed by 4 mg/kg twice daily until weighing 3 kg. CONCLUSIONS: Model-based predictions support twice daily pragmatic GA band dosing of lamivudine for preterm infants, but clinical validation is warranted.

Neonatal mortality risk of vulnerable newborns by fine stratum of gestational age and birthweight for 230 679 live births in nine low- and middle-income countries, 2000-2017.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the mortality risks by fine strata of gestational age and birthweight among 230 679 live births in nine low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017. DESIGN: Descriptive multi-country secondary data analysis. SETTING: Nine LMICs in sub-Saharan Africa, Southern and Eastern Asia, and Latin America. POPULATION: Liveborn infants from 15 population-based cohorts. METHODS: Subnational, population-based studies with high-quality birth outcome data were invited to join the Vulnerable Newborn Measurement Collaboration. All studies included birthweight, gestational age measured by ultrasound or last menstrual period, infant sex and neonatal survival. We defined adequate birthweight as 2500-3999 g (reference category), macrosomia as ≥4000 g, moderate low as 1500-2499 g and very low birthweight as <1500 g. We analysed fine strata classifications of preterm, term and post-term: ≥42+0 , 39+0 -41+6 (reference category), 37+0 -38+6 , 34+0 -36+6 ,34+0 -36+6 ,32+0 -33+6 , 30+0 -31+6 , 28+0 -29+6 and less than 28 weeks. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Median and interquartile ranges by study for neonatal mortality rates (NMR) and relative risks (RR). We also performed meta-analysis for the relative mortality risks with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by the fine categories, stratified by regional study setting (sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia) and study-level NMR (≤25 versus >25 neonatal deaths per 1000 live births). RESULTS: We found a dose-response relationship between lower gestational ages and birthweights with increasing neonatal mortality risks. The highest NMR and RR were among preterm babies born at <28 weeks (median NMR 359.2 per 1000 live births; RR 18.0, 95% CI 8.6-37.6) and very low birthweight (462.8 per 1000 live births; RR 43.4, 95% CI 29.5-63.9). We found no statistically significant neonatal mortality risk for macrosomia (RR 1.1, 95% CI 0.6-3.0) but a statistically significant risk for all preterm babies, post-term babies (RR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.5) and babies born at 370 -386 weeks (RR 1.2, 95% CI 1.0-1.4). There were no statistically significant differences by region or underlying neonatal mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to tracking vulnerable newborn types, monitoring finer categories of birthweight and gestational age will allow for better understanding of the predictors, interventions and health outcomes for vulnerable newborns. It is imperative that all newborns from live births and stillbirths have an accurate recorded weight and gestational age to track maternal and neonatal health and optimise prevention and care of vulnerable newborns.

Immune Modulation of HIV-1 Reservoir Size in Early-Treated Neonates.

Immune mechanisms that modulate human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) reservoir size in neonates are poorly understood. Using samples from neonates who initiated antiretroviral therapy shortly after birth, we demonstrate that interleukin-8-secreting CD4 T cells, which are selectively expanded in early infancy, are more resistant to HIV-1 infection and inversely correlated with the frequency of intact proviruses at birth. Moreover, newborns with HIV-1 infection displayed a distinct B-cell profile at birth, with reduction of memory B cells and expansion of plasmablasts and transitional B cells; however, B-cell immune perturbations were unrelated to HIV-1 reservoir size and normalized after initiation of antiretroviral therapy. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT02369406.

Archived rilpivirine-associated resistance mutations among ART-naive and virologically suppressed people living with HIV-1 subtype C in Botswana: implications for cabotegravir/rilpivirine use.

OBJECTIVES: Pre-existing rilpivirine resistance-associated mutations (RVP-RAMs) have been found to predict HIV-1 virological failure in those switching to long-acting injectable cabotegravir/rilpivirine. We here evaluated the prevalence of archived RPV-RAMs in a cohort of people living with HIV (PWH). METHODS: We analysed near full-length HIV-1 pol sequences from proviral DNA for the presence of RPV-RAMs, which were defined according to the 2022 IAS-USA drug resistance mutation list and Stanford HIV drug resistance database. RESULTS: RPV-RAMs were identified in 757/5805 sequences, giving a prevalence of 13.0% (95% CI 12%-13.9%). Amongst the ART-naive group, 137/1281 (10.7%, 95% CI 9.1%-12.5%) had at least one RPV-RAM. Of the 4524 PWH with viral suppression on ART (VL <400 copies/mL), 620 (13.7%, 95% CI 12.7%-14.7%) had at least one RPV-RAM. E138A was the most prevalent RPV-RAM in the ART-naive group (7.9%) and the ART-suppressed group (9.3%). The rest of the mutations observed (L100I, K101E, E138G, E138K, E138Q, Y181C, H221Y, M230L, A98G, V179D, G190A, G190E and M230I) were below a prevalence of 1%. CONCLUSIONS: RPV-RAMs were present in 10.7% of ART-naive and 13.7% of ART-suppressed PWH in Botswana. The most common RPV-RAM in both groups was E138A. Since individuals with the E138A mutation may be more likely to fail cabotegravir/rilpivirine, monitoring RPV-RAMs will be crucial for effective cabotegravir/rilpivirine implementation in this setting.

Emulating Target Trials to Avoid Immortal Time Bias - An Application to Antibiotic Initiation and Preterm Delivery.

BACKGROUND: Randomized trials in pregnancy are extremely challenging, and observational studies are often the only option to evaluate medication safety during pregnancy. However, such studies are often susceptible to immortal time bias if treatment initiation occurs after time zero of follow-up. We describe how emulating a sequence of target trials avoids immortal time bias and apply the approach to estimate the safety of antibiotic initiation between 24 and 37 weeks gestation on preterm delivery. METHODS: The Tsepamo Study captured birth outcomes at hospitals throughout Botswana from 2014 to 2021. We emulated 13 sequential target trials of antibiotic initiation versus no initiation among individuals presenting to care <24 weeks, one for each week from 24 to 37 weeks. For each trial, eligible individuals had not previously initiated antibiotics. We also conducted an analysis susceptible to immortal time bias by defining time zero as 24 weeks and exposure as antibiotic initiation between 24 and 37 weeks. We calculated adjusted risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for preterm delivery. RESULTS: Of 111,403 eligible individuals, 17,009 (15.3%) initiated antibiotics between 24 and 37 weeks. In the sequence of target trials, RRs (95% CIs) ranged from 1.04 (0.90, 1.19) to 1.24 (1.11, 1.39) (pooled RR: 1.11 [1.06, 1.15]). In the analysis susceptible to immortal time bias, the RR was 0.90 (0.86, 0.94). CONCLUSIONS: Defining exposure as antibiotic initiation at any time during follow-up after time zero resulted in substantial immortal time bias, making antibiotics appear protective against preterm delivery. Conducting a sequence of target trials can avoid immortal time bias in pregnancy studies.

Neonatal mortality risk of vulnerable newborns: A descriptive analysis of subnational, population-based birth cohorts for 238 203 live births in low- and middle-income settings from 2000 to 2017.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to understand the mortality risks of vulnerable newborns (defined as preterm and/or born weighing smaller or larger compared to a standard population), in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). DESIGN: Descriptive multi-country, secondary analysis of individual-level study data of babies born since 2000. SETTING: Sixteen subnational, population-based studies from nine LMICs in sub-Saharan Africa, Southern and Eastern Asia, and Latin America. POPULATION: Live birth neonates. METHODS: We categorically defined five vulnerable newborn types based on size (large- or appropriate- or small-for-gestational age [LGA, AGA, SGA]), and term (T) and preterm (PT): T + LGA, T + SGA, PT + LGA, PT + AGA, and PT + SGA, with T + AGA (reference). A 10-type definition included low birthweight (LBW) and non-LBW, and a four-type definition collapsed AGA/LGA into one category. We performed imputation for missing birthweights in 13 of the studies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Median and interquartile ranges by study for the prevalence, mortality rates and relative mortality risks for the four, six and ten type classification. RESULTS: There were 238 203 live births with known neonatal status. Four of the six types had higher mortality risk: T + SGA (median relative risk [RR] 2.6, interquartile range [IQR] 2.0-2.9), PT + LGA (median RR 7.3, IQR 2.3-10.4), PT + AGA (median RR 6.0, IQR 4.4-13.2) and PT + SGA (median RR 10.4, IQR 8.6-13.9). T + SGA, PT + LGA and PT + AGA babies who were LBW, had higher risk compared with non-LBW babies. CONCLUSIONS: Small and/or preterm babies in LIMCs have a considerably increased mortality risk compared with babies born at term and larger. This classification system may advance the understanding of the social determinants and biomedical risk factors along with improved treatment that is critical for newborn health.

Efficacy and safety of dolutegravir with emtricitabine and tenofovir alafenamide fumarate or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate, and efavirenz, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate HIV antiretroviral therapy regimens started in pregnancy (IMPAACT 2010/VESTED): a multicentre, open-label, randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) during pregnancy is important for both maternal health and prevention of perinatal HIV-1 transmission; however adequate data on the safety and efficacy of different ART regimens that are likely to be used by pregnant women are scarce. In this trial we compared the safety and efficacy of three antiretroviral regimens started in pregnancy: dolutegravir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir alafenamide fumarate; dolutegravir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate; and efavirenz, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate. METHODS: This multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled, phase 3 trial was done at 22 clinical research sites in nine countries (Botswana, Brazil, India, South Africa, Tanzania, Thailand, Uganda, the USA, and Zimbabwe). Pregnant women (aged ≥18 years) with confirmed HIV-1 infection and at 14-28 weeks' gestation were eligible. Women who had previously taken antiretrovirals in the past were excluded (up to 14 days of ART during the current pregnancy was permitted), as were women known to be pregnant with multiple fetuses, or those with known fetal anomaly or a history of psychiatric illness. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1:1) using a central computerised randomisation system. Randomisation was done using permuted blocks (size six) stratified by gestational age (14-18, 19-23, and 24-28 weeks' gestation) and country. Participants were randomly assigned to receive either once-daily oral dolutegravir 50 mg, and once-daily oral fixed-dose combination emtricitabine 200 mg and tenofovir alafenamide fumarate 25 mg; once-daily oral dolutegravir 50 mg, and once-daily oral fixed-dose combination emtricitabine 200 mg and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate 300 mg; or once-daily oral fixed-dose combination of efavirenz 600 mg, emtricitabine 200 mg, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate 300 mg. The primary efficacy outcome was the proportion of participants with viral suppression, defined as an HIV-1 RNA concentration of less than 200 copies per mL, at or within 14 days of delivery, assessed in all participants with an HIV-1 RNA result available from the delivery visit, with a prespecified non-inferiority margin of -10% in the combined dolutegravir-containing groups versus the efavirenz-containing group (superiority was tested in a pre-planned secondary analysis). Primary safety outcomes, compared pairwise among treatment groups, were the occurrence of a composite adverse pregnancy outcome (ie, either preterm delivery, the infant being born small for gestational age, stillbirth, or spontaneous abortion) in all participants with a pregnancy outcome, and the occurrence of grade 3 or higher maternal and infant adverse events in all randomised participants. This trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03048422. FINDINGS: Between Jan 19, 2018, and Feb 8, 2019, we enrolled and randomly assigned 643 pregnant women: 217 to the dolutegravir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir alafenamide fumarate group, 215 to the dolutegravir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate group, and 211 to the efavirenz, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate group. At enrolment, median gestational age was 21·9 weeks (IQR 18·3-25·3), the median HIV-1 RNA concentration among participants was 902·5 copies per mL (152·0-5182·5; 181 [28%] of 643 participants had HIV-1 RNA concentrations of <200 copies per mL), and the median CD4 count was 466 cells per µL (308-624). HIV-1 RNA concentrations at delivery were available for 605 (94%) participants. Of these, 395 (98%) of 405 participants in the combined dolutegravir-containing groups had viral suppression at delivery compared with 182 (91%) of 200 participants in the efavirenz, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate group (estimated difference 6·5% [95% CI 2·0 to 10·7], p=0·0052; excluding the non-inferiority margin of -10%). Significantly fewer participants in the dolutegravir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir alafenamide fumarate group (52 [24%] of 216) had a composite adverse pregnancy outcome than those in the dolutegravir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate group (70 [33%] of 213; estimated difference -8·8% [95% CI -17·3 to -0·3], p=0·043) or the efavirenz, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate group (69 [33%] of 211; -8·6% [-17·1 to -0·1], p=0·047). The proportion of participants or infants with grade 3 or higher adverse events did not differ among the three groups. The proportion of participants who had a preterm delivery was significantly lower in the dolutegravir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir alafenamide fumarate group (12 [6%] of 208) than in the efavirenz, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate group (25 [12%] of 207; -6·3% [-11·8 to -0·9], p=0·023). Neonatal mortality was significantly higher in the efavirenz, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate group (ten [5%] of 207 infants) than in the dolutegravir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir alafenamide fumarate group (two [1%] of 208; p=0·019) or the dolutegravir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate group (three [2%] of 202; p=0·050). INTERPRETATION: When started in pregnancy, dolutegravir-containing regimens had superior virological efficacy at delivery compared with the efavirenz, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate regimen. The dolutegravir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir alafenamide fumarate regimen had the lowest frequency of composite adverse pregnancy outcomes and of neonatal deaths. FUNDING: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, and the National Institute of Mental Health.

Neural-Tube Defects and Antiretroviral Treatment Regimens in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: A preliminary safety signal for neural-tube defects was previously reported in association with dolutegravir exposure from the time of conception, which has affected choices of antiretroviral treatment (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected women of reproductive potential. The signal can now be evaluated with data from follow-up of additional pregnancies. METHODS: We conducted birth-outcomes surveillance at hospitals throughout Botswana, expanding from 8 to 18 sites in 2018. Trained midwives performed surface examinations of all live-born and stillborn infants. Research assistants photographed abnormalities after maternal consent was obtained. The prevalence of neural-tube defects and major external structural defects according to maternal HIV infection and ART exposure status was determined. In the primary analyses, we used the Newcombe method to evaluate differences in prevalence with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: From August 2014 through March 2019, surveillance captured 119,477 deliveries; 119,033 (99.6%) had an infant surface examination that could be evaluated, and 98 neural-tube defects were identified (0.08% of deliveries). Among 1683 deliveries in which the mother was taking dolutegravir at conception, 5 neural-tube defects were found (0.30% of deliveries); the defects included two instances of myelomeningocele, one of anencephaly, one of encephalocele, and one of iniencephaly. In comparison, 15 neural-tube defects were found among 14,792 deliveries (0.10%) in which the mother was taking any non-dolutegravir ART at conception, 3 among 7959 (0.04%) in which the mother was taking efavirenz at conception, 1 among 3840 (0.03%) in which the mother started dolutegravir treatment during pregnancy, and 70 among 89,372 (0.08%) in HIV-uninfected mothers. The prevalence of neural-tube defects was higher in association with dolutegravir treatment at conception than with non-dolutegravir ART at conception (difference, 0.20 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.01 to 0.59) or with other types of ART exposure. Major external structural defects were found in 0.95% of deliveries among women exposed to dolutegravir at conception and 0.68% of those among women exposed to non-dolutegravir ART at conception (difference, 0.27 percentage points; 95% CI, -0.13 to 0.87). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of neural-tube defects was slightly higher in association with dolutegravir exposure at conception than with other types of ART exposure at conception (3 per 1000 deliveries vs. 1 per 1000 deliveries). (Funded by the National Institutes of Health.).

Universal Testing, Expanded Treatment, and Incidence of HIV Infection in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: The feasibility of reducing the population-level incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection by increasing community coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and male circumcision is unknown. METHODS: We conducted a pair-matched, community-randomized trial in 30 rural or periurban communities in Botswana from 2013 to 2018. Participants in 15 villages in the intervention group received HIV testing and counseling, linkage to care, ART (started at a higher CD4 count than in standard care), and increased access to male circumcision services. The standard-care group also consisted of 15 villages. Universal ART became available in both groups in mid-2016. We enrolled a random sample of participants from approximately 20% of households in each community and measured the incidence of HIV infection through testing performed approximately once per year. The prespecified primary analysis was a permutation test of HIV incidence ratios. Pair-stratified Cox models were used to calculate 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Of 12,610 enrollees (81% of eligible household members), 29% were HIV-positive. Of the 8974 HIV-negative persons (4487 per group), 95% were retested for HIV infection over a median of 29 months. A total of 57 participants in the intervention group and 90 participants in the standard-care group acquired HIV infection (annualized HIV incidence, 0.59% and 0.92%, respectively). The unadjusted HIV incidence ratio in the intervention group as compared with the standard-care group was 0.69 (P = 0.09) by permutation test (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.46 to 0.90 by pair-stratified Cox model). An end-of-trial survey in six communities (three per group) showed a significantly greater increase in the percentage of HIV-positive participants with an HIV-1 RNA level of 400 copies per milliliter or less in the intervention group (18 percentage points, from 70% to 88%) than in the standard-care group (8 percentage points, from 75% to 83%) (relative risk, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.16). The percentage of men who underwent circumcision increased by 10 percentage points in the intervention group and 2 percentage points in the standard-care group (relative risk, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.17 to 1.35). CONCLUSIONS: Expanded HIV testing, linkage to care, and ART coverage were associated with increased population viral suppression. (Funded by the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief and others; Ya Tsie ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01965470.).

HIV-1 drug resistance mutations among individuals with low-level viraemia while taking combination ART in Botswana.

OBJECTIVES: To assess whether a single instance of low-level viraemia (LLV) is associated with the presence of drug resistance mutations (DRMs) and predicts subsequent virological failure (VF) in adults receiving ART in 30 communities participating in the Botswana Combination Prevention Project. METHODS: A total of 6078 HIV-1 C pol sequences were generated and analysed using the Stanford HIV drug resistance database. LLV was defined as plasma VL = 51-999 copies/mL and VF was defined as plasma VL ≥ 1000 copies/mL. RESULTS: Among 6078 people with HIV (PWH), 4443 (73%) were on ART for at least 6 months. Of the 332 persons on ART with VL > 50 copies/mL, 175 (4%) had VL ≥ 1000 copies/mL and 157 (4%) had LLV at baseline. The prevalence of any DRM was 57 (36%) and 78 (45%) in persons with LLV and VL ≥ 1000 copies/mL, respectively. Major DRMs were found in 31 (20%) with LLV and 53 (30%) with VL ≥ 1000 copies/mL (P = 0.04). Among the 135 PWH with at least one DRM, 17% had NRTI-, 35% NNRTI-, 6% PI- and 3% INSTI-associated mutations. Among the 3596 participants who were followed up, 1709 (48%) were on ART for ≥6 months at entry and had at least one subsequent VL measurement (median 29 months), 43 (3%) of whom had LLV. The OR of experiencing VF in persons with LLV at entry was 36-fold higher than in the virally suppressed group. CONCLUSIONS: A single LLV measurement while on ART strongly predicted the risk of future VF, suggesting the use of VL > 50 copies/mL as an indication for more intensive adherence support with more frequent VL monitoring.

Prolonged Cotrimoxazole Prophylaxis Has No Impact on Child Growth in the First Two Years of Life: Findings from a Randomized Controlled Trial in Botswana.

We investigated the impact of prolonged cotrimoxazole prophylaxis on growth in 2848 HIV-exposed uninfected children enrolled in the Mpepu study, a randomized, placebo-controlled trial in Botswana. No significant differences in mean weight-for-age, length-for-age, or weight-for-length z scores between placebo and cotrimoxazole arms were observed overall through 18 months.

Impact of prophylactic antimalarials in pregnant women living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus on birth outcomes in Botswana.

OBJECTIVES: Until late 2015, Botswana recommended preventive treatment for pregnant women in malarial regions with chloroquine and proguanil (CP). The guideline change provided an opportunity to evaluate CP and adverse birth outcomes. METHODS: The Tsepamo Study performed birth outcomes surveillance at large delivery centres throughout Botswana. We evaluated adverse birth outcomes from 2015 to 2017 at three hospitals where 93% of CP use was recorded. Outcomes included neonatal death (NND), small for gestational age (SGA), very SGA, stillbirth (SB), preterm delivery (PTD) and very PTD. Logistic regression analysis (unadjusted and adjusted) was conducted for each adverse birth outcome. RESULTS: During the study period, 5883 (26%) of 23,033 deliveries were exposed to CP, with the majority (65%) in the most malaria-endemic region. At this site, there was a trend or an association between CP use and reduction of three adverse birth outcomes: PTD (aOR 0.85, 95% CI 0.76-0.96), vPTD (aOR 0.83, 95% CI 0.68-1.01) and NND (aOR 0.65, 95% CI 0.42-1.00). However, at the least malaria-endemic site, the association was in the opposite direction for SB (aOR 1.54, 95% CI 1.08-2.22), SGA (aOR 1.24, 95% CI 1.06-1.44) and vSGA (aOR 1.42, 95% CI 1.14-1.77). The association between CP and reduced PTD was present among women without HIV (aOR 0.77, 95% CI 0.67-0.89) but not among women with HIV (aOR 1.09, 95% CI 0.78-1.35). CONCLUSIONS: Antimalarial prophylaxis was associated with improved birth outcomes in the most malaria-endemic region of Botswana, but not elsewhere. This finding supports current WHO guidance to use prophylaxis strategies among pregnant women in highly malaria-endemic regions. Further studies of the risks and benefits of specific antimalarial regimens in pregnancy are warranted, particularly in areas with lower incidence of malaria.

High risk of adverse birth outcomes among adolescents living with HIV in Botswana compared to adult women living with HIV and adolescents without HIV.

BACKGROUND: Adolescent girls are three times more likely to be living with HIV than boys of the same age. Prior studies have found associations between adolescent pregnancies and increased maternal morbidity and infant mortality, but few studies have assessed the impact of HIV infection on maternal and infant outcomes in adolescents. METHODS: The Tsepamo Study abstracts maternal and infant data from obstetric records in government maternity wards in Botswana. We assessed maternal complications and adverse birth outcomes for all singleton pregnancies from August 2014 to August 2020 at eighteen Tsepamo sites among adolescents (defined as 10-19 years of age) and adults (defined as 20-35 years of age), by HIV status. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression using a complete case analysis method were used to evaluate differences in outcomes. RESULTS: This analysis included 142,258 singleton births, 21,133 (14.9%) to adolescents and 121,125 (85.1%) to adults. The proportion of adults living with HIV (N = 22,114, 22.5%) was higher than adolescents (N = 1593, 7.6%). The proportion of most adverse birth outcomes was higher in adolescents. Among adolescents, those with HIV had increased likelihoods of anemia (aOR = 1.89, 95%CI 1.66, 2.15) and cesarean sections (aOR = 1.49, 95%CI 1.3,1.72), and infants with preterm birth (aOR = 1.15, 95%CI 1.0, 1.32), very preterm birth (aOR = 1.35, 95%CI 1.0,1.8), small for gestational age (aOR = 1.37, 95%CI 1.20,1.58), and very small for gestational age (aOR = 1.46, 95%CI 1.20, 1.79). CONCLUSIONS: Adolescent pregnancy and adolescent HIV infection remain high in Botswana. Adolescents have higher risk of adverse maternal and infant birth outcomes than adults, with the worst outcomes among adolescents living with HIV. Linking HIV prevention and family planning strategies for this age group may help minimize the number of infants with poor birth outcomes among this already vulnerable population.

Viral Reservoir in Early-Treated Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Children and Markers for Sustained Viral Suppression.

BACKGROUND: The impact of very early infant treatment on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) reservoir, and markers for treatment success, require study. METHODS: The Early Infant Treatment Study (EIT) enrolled 40 children living with HIV started on antiretroviral treatment (ART) at <7 days of age, with 23 who had started treatment between 30-365 days to serve as controls. Quantitative HIV DNA was evaluated every 1-3 months in peripheral blood mononuclear cells. 84-week repeat qualitative whole blood DNA polymerase chain reaction and dual enzyme immunosorbent assay were performed. RESULTS: Median quantitative cell-associated DNA after at least 84 weeks was significantly lower among the first 27 EIT children tested than among 10 controls (40.8 vs 981.4 copies/million cells; P < .001) and correlated with pre-ART DNA. Median DNA after 84 weeks did not differ significantly by negative or positive serostatus at 84 weeks (P = .94), and appeared unaffected by periods of unsuppressed plasma RNA from 24-84 weeks (P = .70). However, negative 84-week serostatus was 67% predictive for sustained RNA suppression, and positive serostatus was 100% predictive for viremia. Loss of qualitative DNA positivity at 84 weeks was 73% predictive for sustained suppression, and persistent positivity was 77% predictive for viremia. CONCLUSIONS: Lower viral reservoir was associated with starting ART at <1 week. Negative serostatus and qualitative DNA were useful markers of sustained viral suppression from 24-84 weeks.

Safety and Efficacy of Starting Antiretroviral Therapy in the First Week of Life.

BACKGROUND: Early antiretroviral therapy (ART) is recommended for infants with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. However, few antiretroviral options are available for neonates. METHODS: The Early Infant Treatment Study in Botswana tested HIV-exposed infants within 96 hours of birth, and HIV-infected infants started nevirapine (NVP) 6 mg/kg twice daily, zidovudine (ZDV), and lamivudine (3TC) at age < 7 days. NVP trough concentrations were tested at 1 and 2 weeks. NVP was switched to ritonavir-boosted lopinavir (LPV/r) at week 2, 3, 4, or 5 according to delivery gestational age. RESULTS: Forty HIV-infected infants started ART at median age 2 days (range, 1-5 days). NVP trough concentrations were highly variable and below therapeutic target (3000 ng/mL) for 50% of 2-week measurements; concentrations did not correlate with viral decline at weeks 2, 4, or 12. Two deaths unrelated to ART occurred through 24 weeks. Only 1 unscheduled treatment modification was required. Within 4 weeks of transition to LPV/r, 9 (22.5%) had transient HIV RNA increases, likely due to poor LPV/r palatability. At 12 weeks, 22 (55%) of 40 were <40 copies/mL (93% <400 copies/mL); by 24 weeks, 27 of 38 (71%) were < 40 copies/mL (84% < 400 copies/mL). HIV-1 RNA response at 12 and 24 weeks did not differ by baseline HIV RNA or other factors. CONCLUSIONS: NVP/ZDV/3TC started in the first week of life was safe and effective, even when trough NVP levels were below target. Transient viral increases occurred following transition to LPV/r, but by 12 and 24 weeks most children achieved and maintained viral suppression. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02369406.

Modest reduction in adverse birth outcomes following the COVID-19 lockdown.

BACKGROUND: Widespread lockdowns imposed during the coronavirus disease 2019 crisis may impact birth outcomes. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the association between the COVID-19 lockdown and the risk of adverse birth outcomes in Botswana. STUDY DESIGN: In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 crisis, Botswana enforced a lockdown that restricted movement within the country. We used data from an ongoing nationwide birth outcomes surveillance study to evaluate adverse outcomes (stillbirth, preterm birth, small-for-gestational-age fetuses, and neonatal death) and severe adverse outcomes (stillbirth, very preterm birth, very-small-for-gestational-age fetuses, and neonatal death) recorded prelockdown (January 1, 2020-April 2, 2020), during lockdown (April 3, 2020-May 7, 2020), and postlockdown (May 8, 2020-July 20, 2020). Using difference-in-differences analyses, we compared the net change in each outcome from the prelockdown to lockdown periods in 2020 relative to the same 2 periods in 2017-2019 with the net change in each outcome from the prelockdown to postlockdown periods in 2020 relative to the same 2 periods in 2017-2019. RESULTS: In this study, 68,448 women delivered a singleton infant in 2017-2020 between January 1 and July 20 and were included in our analysis (mean [interquartile range] age of mothers, 26 [22-32] years). Across the included calendar years and periods, the risk of any adverse outcome ranged from 27.92% to 31.70%, and the risk of any severe adverse outcome ranged from 8.40% to 11.38%. The lockdown period was associated with a 0.81 percentage point reduction (95% confidence interval, -2.95% to 1.30%) in the risk of any adverse outcome (3% relative reduction) and a 0.02 percentage point reduction (95% confidence interval, -0.79% to 0.75%) in the risk of any severe adverse outcome (0% relative reduction). The postlockdown period was associated with a 1.72 percentage point reduction (95% confidence, -3.42% to 0.02%) in the risk of any adverse outcome (5% relative reduction) and a 1.62 percentage point reduction (95% confidence interval, -2.69% to -0.55%) in the risk of any severe adverse outcome (14% relative reduction). Reductions in adverse outcomes were largest among women with human immunodeficiency virus and among women delivering at urban delivery sites, driven primarily by reductions in preterm birth and small-for-gestational-age fetuses. CONCLUSION: Adverse birth outcomes decreased from the prelockdown to postlockdown periods in 2020, relative to the change during the same periods in 2017-2019. Our findings may provide insights into associations between mobility and birth outcomes in Botswana and other low- and middle-income countries.

Are morbidity and mortality estimates from randomized controlled trials externally valid? A comparison of outcomes among infants enrolled into an RCT or a cohort study in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: The external validity of the randomized controlled trial (RCT) refers to the extent to which the results of the RCT apply to the relevant, non-trial population and is impacted by its eligibility criteria, its organization, and its delivery of the intervention. Here, we compared the outcomes of mortality and hospitalization between an RCT and a cohort study that concurrently enrolled HIV-exposed uninfected (HEU) newborns in Botswana. METHODS: The Mpepu Study (the RCT) was a clinical trial which determined that co-trimoxazole (CTX) provided no survival benefit for HEUs, allowing both arms of the RCT to be used. The Maikaelelo study (the cohort study) was a prospective observational study that enrolled HEU newborns with telephone follow-up and no in-person visits. Rates of death and hospitalization in the pooled population, were modeled using cox-proportional hazards models for time to death or time to first hospitalization, with study setting (RCT vs. cohort study) as an independent variable. The causal effect of study setting on morbidity and mortality was obtained through a treatment effects approach. RESULTS: In total, 4,010 infants were included; 1,306 were enrolled into the cohort study and 2,704 were enrolled into the RCT. No significant differences in mortality were observed between the two study settings (HR: 1.28, 95% CI: 0.76, 2.13), but RCT participants had a lower risk of hospitalization (HR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.58, 0.89) that decreased with age. However, RCT participants had a higher risk of hospitalization within the first six months of life. The causal risk difference in hospitalizations attributable to the RCT setting was -0.03 (95% CI: -0.05, -0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Children in an RCT with rigorous application of national standard of care guidelines experienced a significantly lower risk of hospitalization than children participating in a cohort study that did not alter clinical care. Future research is needed to further investigate outcome disparities when real-world results fail to mirror those achieved in a clinical trial. Trial registration The Mpepu Trial was funded by the U.S. National Institutes of Health (No. NCT01229761) and the Maikaelelo Study was funded primarily by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (32AI007433-21).