Expanding ocean food production under climate change.

As the human population and demand for food grow1, the ocean will be called on to provide increasing amounts of seafood. Although fisheries reforms and advances in offshore aquaculture (hereafter 'mariculture') could increase production2, the true future of seafood depends on human responses to climate change3. Here we investigated whether coordinated reforms in fisheries and mariculture could increase seafood production per capita under climate change. We find that climate-adaptive fisheries reforms will be necessary but insufficient to maintain global seafood production per capita, even with aggressive reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions. However, the potential for sustainable mariculture to increase seafood per capita is vast and could increase seafood production per capita under all but the most severe emissions scenario. These increases are contingent on fisheries reforms, continued advances in feed technology and the establishment of effective mariculture governance and best practices. Furthermore, dramatically curbing emissions is essential for reducing inequities, increasing reform efficacy and mitigating risks unaccounted for in our analysis. Although climate change will challenge the ocean's ability to meet growing food demands, the ocean could produce more food than it does currently through swift and ambitious action to reduce emissions, reform capture fisheries and expand sustainable mariculture operations.

Integration of qualitative and quantitative methods for land-use-change modeling in a deforestation frontier.

Development and implementation of effective protected area management to reduce deforestation depend in part on identifying factors contributing to forest loss and areas at risk of conversion, but standard land-use-change modeling may not fully capture contextual factors that are not easily quantified. To better understand deforestation and agricultural expansion in Amazonian protected areas, we combined quantitative land-use-change modeling with qualitative discourse analysis in a case study of Brazil's Jamanxim National Forest. We modeled land-use change from 2008 to 2018 and projected deforestation through 2028. We used variables identified in a review of studies that modeled land-use change in the Amazon (e.g., variables related to agricultural suitability and economic accessibility) and from a critical discourse analysis that examined documents produced by different actors (e.g., government agencies and conservation nonprofit organizations) at various spatial scales. As measured by analysis of variance, McFadden's adjusted pseudo R2 , and quantity and allocation disagreement, we found that including variables in the model identified as important to deforestation dynamics through the qualitative discourse analysis (e.g., the proportion of unallocated public land, distance to proposed infrastructure developments, and density of recent fires) alongside more traditional variables (e.g., elevation, distance to roads, and protection status) improved the predictive ability of these models. Models that included discourse analysis variables and traditional variables explained up to 19.3% more of the observed variation in deforestation probability than a model that included only traditional variables and 4.1% more variation than a model with only discourse analysis variables. Our approach of integrating qualitative and quantitative methods in land-use-change modeling provides a framework for future interdisciplinary work in land-use change.

El desarrollo y la implementación de la gestión efectiva de las áreas protegidas para reducir la deforestación dependen parcialmente de la identificación de los factores que contribuyen a la pérdida del bosque y de las áreas en riesgo de ser convertidas, pero el modelado estándar del cambio de uso de suelo puede no capturar completamente los factores contextuales que no se cuantifican fácilmente. Combinamos el modelado cuantitativo del cambio de uso de suelo con el análisis cualitativo del discurso en un estudio de caso del Bosque Nacional Jamanxim de Brasil para entender de mejor manera la deforestación y la expansión agrícola en las áreas protegidas del Amazonas. Modelamos el cambio de uso de suelo entre 2008 y 2018 y lo proyectamos hasta 2028. Usamos las variables identificadas en una revisión de estudios que modelaron el cambio de uso de suelo en el Amazonas (p. ej.: variables relacionadas con la idoneidad agrícola y la accesibilidad económica) y en el análisis crítico del discurso que examinó documentos producidos por diferentes actores (p. ej.: agencias gubernamentales y organizaciones sin fines de lucro para la conservación) a varias escalas espaciales. Conforme a las medidas del análisis de varianza, la pseudo-R2 ajustada de McFadden y el desacuerdo en la cantidad y la asignación, descubrimos que la inclusión dentro del modelo de las variables identificadas como importantes para las dinámicas de deforestación mediante el análisis cualitativo del discurso (p. ej.: la proporción de terrenos públicos sin asignar, la distancia hacia los desarrollos propuestos de infraestructura y la densidad de incendios recientes) junto con variables más tradicionales (p. ej.: elevación, distancia a las carreteras y estado de protección) mejoró la habilidad predictiva de dichos modelos. Los modelos que incluyeron la mezcla de variables explicaron hasta 19.3% más de la variación observada en la probabilidad de deforestación que un modelo que solamente incluyó las variables tradicionales y 4.1% más variación que un modelo con las variables del análisis del discurso. Nuestra estrategia de integrar los métodos cualitativos y cuantitativos dentro del modelado del cambio de uso de suelo proporciona un marco para futuros trabajos interdisciplinarios sobre el cambio de uso de suelo.

Impacts of livestock grazing on the probability of burning in wildfires vary by region and vegetation type in California.

Wildfire activity has recently increased in California, impacting ecosystems and human well-being. California's rangelands are complex social-ecological systems composed of multiple ecosystems and the people who live and work in them. Livestock grazing has been proposed as a tool for reducing wildfire activity. Here, we explore how grazing affects wildfire at large spatial scales, assessing burn probability on rangelands with different grazing levels. We collected grazing data by surveying 140 large private landowners in three social-ecological regions: California's North Bay, Central Coast, and Central Valley and Foothills. Using pre-regression matching and mixed effects regression, we calculate the burn probability from 2001 to 2017 in points sampled from grazed and ungrazed properties in each region in grasslands, shrub/scrublands, and forests. We find that in the Central Coast and North Bay, annual burn probability decreases as stocking levels increase across all vegetation types, with reductions of 0.008-0.036. In the Central Valley and Foothills, the relationship is complex, with burn probability increasing over some grazing levels and variations in the effect of higher stocking densities. Our results indicate that livestock grazing may reduce annual burn probability in some regions and ecosystems in California, providing the first large-scale assessment of this relationship.

Approaches to interdisciplinary mixed methods research in land-change science and environmental management.

Combining qualitative and quantitative methods and data is crucial to understanding the complex dynamics and often interdisciplinary nature of conservation. Many conservation scientists use mixed methods, but there are a variety of mixed methods approaches, a lack of shared vocabulary, and few methodological frameworks. We reviewed articles from 2 conservation-related fields that often incorporate qualitative and quantitative methods: land-change science (n = 16) and environmental management (n = 16). We examined how authors of these studies approached mixed methods research by coding key methodological characteristics, including relationships between method objectives, extent of integration, iterative interactions between methods, and justification for use of mixed methods. Using these characteristics, we created a typology with the goal of improving understanding of how researchers studying land-change science and environmental management approach interdisciplinary mixed methods research. We identified 5 types of mixed methods approaches, which we termed simple nested, informed nested, simple parallel, unidirectional synthesis, and bidirectional synthesis. Methods and data sources were often used to address different research questions within a project, and only around half of the reviewed papers methodologically integrated different forms of data. Most authors used one method to inform the other, rather than both informing one another. Very few articles used methodological iteration. Each methodological type has certain epistemological implications, such as the disciplinary reach of the research and the capacity for knowledge creation through the exchange of information between distinct methodologies. To exemplify a research design that can lead to multidimensional knowledge production, we provide a methodological framework that bidirectionally integrates and iterates qualitative and quantitative methods.

Estrategias para la Investigación Interdisciplinaria con Métodos Mixtos en las Ciencias del Cambio de Suelo y el Manejo Ambiental Resumen La combinación entre los métodos cualitativos y cuantitativos y los datos es crucial para el entendimiento de las dinámicas complejas y con frecuencia, de la naturaleza interdisciplinaria de la conservación. Muchos científicos de la conservación usan métodos mixtos, aunque existe una variedad de estrategias de métodos mixtos, una falta de vocabulario común y pocos marcos de trabajo metodológicos. Revisamos los artículos publicados en dos campos relacionados con la conservación, los cuales con frecuencia incorporan métodos cualitativos y cuantitativos: las ciencias del cambio de suelo (n = 16) y el manejo ambiental (n = 16). Examinamos cómo los autores de estos estudios abordaron la investigación de métodos mixtos al codificar las características metodológicas importantes, incluyendo las relaciones entre los objetivos de los métodos, la extensión de la integración, las interacciones iterativas entre los métodos y la justificación para el uso de los métodos mixtos. Con estas características creamos una tipología con el objetivo de mejorar el entendimiento de cómo los investigadores que estudian las ciencias del cambio de suelo y el manejo ambiental abordan la investigación interdisciplinaria de métodos mixtos. Identificamos cinco tipos de estrategias de métodos mixtos, que denominamos anidadas, anidadas informadas, paralelas simples, de síntesis unidireccional y de síntesis bidireccional. Con frecuencia se utilizaron métodos y fuentes de datos para responder a diferentes preguntas de investigación dentro de un proyecto y sólo alrededor de la mitad de los artículos revisados integraron de manera metodológica diferentes presentaciones de los datos. La mayoría de los autores usaron un método para orientar al otro método, en lugar de que ambos métodos se orientaran mutuamente. Fueron muy pocos los artículos que usaron la iteración metodológica. Cada estilo metodológico tiene ciertas implicaciones epistemológicas, como el alcance disciplinario de la investigación y la capacidad de creación de conocimiento por medio del intercambio de información entre las distintas metodologías. Proporcionamos un marco de trabajo metodológico que integre de manera bidireccional y reitere los métodos cualitativos y cuantitativos para ejemplificar un diseño de investigación que pueda derivar en la producción multidimensional del conocimiento.

Chemical encoding of risk perception and predator detection among estuarine invertebrates.

An effective strategy for prey to survive in habitats rich in predators is to avoid being noticed. Thus, prey are under selection pressure to recognize predators and adjust their behavior, which can impact numerous community-wide interactions. Many animals in murky and turbulent aquatic environments rely on waterborne chemical cues. Previous research showed that the mud crab, Panopeus herbstii, recognizes the predatory blue crab, Callinectus sapidus, via a cue in blue crab urine. This cue is strongest if blue crabs recently preyed upon mud crabs. Subsequently, mud crabs suppress their foraging activity, reducing predation by blue crabs. Using NMR spectroscopy- and mass spectrometry-based metabolomics, chemical variation in urine from blue crabs fed different diets was related to prey behavior. We identified the urinary metabolites trigonelline and homarine as components of the cue that mud crabs use to detect blue crabs, with concentrations of each metabolite dependent on the blue crab's diet. At concentrations found naturally in blue crab urine, trigonelline and homarine, alone as well as in a mixture, alerted mud crabs to the presence of blue crabs, leading to decreased foraging by mud crabs. Risk perception by waterborne cues has been widely observed by ecologists, but the molecular nature of these cues has not been previously identified. Metabolomics provides an opportunity to study waterborne cues where other approaches have historically failed, advancing our understanding of the chemical nature of a wide range of ecological interactions.

Sovereign states in the Caribbean have lower social-ecological vulnerability to coral bleaching than overseas territories.

Coral reef social-ecological systems worldwide face major impacts from climate change, and spatial variation in vulnerability is driven by differential exposure to climatic threats, ecological and socio-economic sensitivity to those threats, ecological recovery potential, and socio-economic adaptive capacity. We assess variation in social-ecological vulnerability to climate change-induced coral bleaching, specifically for reef-based fisheries and tourism, of islands throughout the insular Caribbean, thus providing the first region-wide quantitative analysis of island-scale social-ecological vulnerability to coral bleaching. We show that different components of vulnerability have distinct spatial patterns and that variability in overall vulnerability is driven more by socio-economic than ecological components. Importantly, we find that sovereign islands are less vulnerable on average than overseas territories and that the presence of fisheries management regulations is a significant predictor of adaptive capacity and socio-economic sensitivity, with important implications for island-level governance and policies to reduce climate vulnerability.

Operationalizing the social-ecological systems framework to assess sustainability.

Environmental governance is more effective when the scales of ecological processes are well matched with the human institutions charged with managing human-environment interactions. The social-ecological systems (SESs) framework provides guidance on how to assess the social and ecological dimensions that contribute to sustainable resource use and management, but rarely if ever has been operationalized for multiple localities in a spatially explicit, quantitative manner. Here, we use the case of small-scale fisheries in Baja California Sur, Mexico, to identify distinct SES regions and test key aspects of coupled SESs theory. Regions that exhibit greater potential for social-ecological sustainability in one dimension do not necessarily exhibit it in others, highlighting the importance of integrative, coupled system analyses when implementing spatial planning and other ecosystem-based strategies.

Balancing multiple management objectives as climate change transforms ecosystems.

As climate change facilitates significant and persistent ecological transformations, managing ecosystems according to historical baseline conditions may no longer be feasible. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework can guide climate-informed management interventions, but in its current implementations RAD has not yet fully accounted for potential tradeoffs between multiple - sometimes incompatible - ecological and societal goals. Key scientific challenges for informing climate-adapted ecosystem management include (i) advancing our predictive understanding of transformations and their socioecological impacts under novel climate conditions, and (ii) incorporating uncertainty around trajectories of ecological change and the potential success of RAD interventions into management decisions. To promote the implementation of RAD, practitioners can account for diverse objectives within just and equitable participatory decision-making processes.

Biases and limitations of Global Forest Change and author-generated land cover maps in detecting deforestation in the Amazon.

Studying land use change in protected areas (PAs) located in tropical forests is a major conservation priority due to high conservation value (e.g., species richness and carbon storage) here, coupled with generally high deforestation rates. Land use change researchers use a variety of land cover products to track deforestation trends, including maps they produce themselves and readily available products, such as the Global Forest Change (GFC) dataset. However, all land cover maps should be critically assessed for limitations and biases to accurately communicate and interpret results. In this study, we assess deforestation in PA complexes located in agricultural frontiers in the Amazon Basin. We studied three specific sites: Amboró and Carrasco National Parks in Bolivia, Jamanxim National Forest in Brazil, and Tambopata National Reserve and Bahuaja-Sonene National Park in Peru. Within and in 20km buffer areas around each complex, we generated land cover maps using composites of Landsat imagery and supervised classification, and compared deforestation trends to data from the GFC dataset. We then performed a dissimilarity analysis to explore the discrepancies between the two remote sensing products. Both the GFC and our supervised classification showed that deforestation rates were higher in the 20km buffer than inside the PAs and that Jamanxim National Forest had the highest deforestation rate of the PAs we studied. However, GFC maps showed consistently higher rates of deforestation than our maps. Through a dissimilarity analysis, we found that many of the inconsistencies between these datasets arise from different treatment of mixed pixels or different parameters in map creation (for example, GFC does not detect reforestation after 2012). We found that our maps underestimated deforestation while GFC overestimated deforestation, and that true deforestation rates likely fall between our two estimates. We encourage users to consider limitations and biases when using or interpreting our maps, which we make publicly available, and GFC's maps.

Evaluating the dual target binding capabilities of immobilized aptamers using flow cytometry.

In the current study, the authors quantify the binding activity of particle-immobilized DNA aptamers to their nucleotide and non-nucleotide targets. For the purposes of this work, DNA and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) binding analysis was carried out for VEGF-binding aptamers and compared to that of an ampicillin-binding aptamer as well as a non-aptamer DNA probe. Binding analysis followed incubation of one target type, coincubation of both DNA and VEGF targets, and serial incubations of each target type. Moreover, recovery of aptamer binding activity following displacement of the DNA target from aptamer:DNA duplexes was also explored. Flow cytometry served as the quantitative tool to directly monitor binding events of both the DNA target and protein target to the various aptamer and non-aptamer functionalized particles. The current work demonstrates how processing steps such as annealing and binding history of particle-immobilized aptamers can affect subsequent binding activity. To this end, the authors demonstrate the ability to fully recover DNA target binding activity capabilities and to partially recover protein target binding activity.