Assessing the Response Results of an mHealth-Based Patient Experience Survey Among People Receiving HIV Care in Lusaka, Zambia: Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: This pilot study evaluates the effectiveness of mobile talk-time incentives in maintaining participation in a longitudinal mobile health (mHealth) data collection program among people living with HIV in Lusaka, Zambia. While mHealth tools, such as mobile phone surveys, provide vital health feedback, optimal incentive strategies to ensure long-term engagement remain limited. This study explores how different incentive levels affect response rates in multiple survey rounds, providing insights into effective methods for encouraging ongoing participation, especially in the context of Zambia's prepaid mobile system and multi-SIM usage, a common practice in sub-Saharan Africa. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the response rate success across multiple invitations to participate in a care experience survey using a mobile phone short codes and unstructured supplementary service data (USSD) model among individuals in an HIV care setting in the Lusaka, Zambia. METHODS: Participants were recruited from 2 study clinics-1 in a periurban setting and 1 in an urban setting. A total of 2 rounds of survey invitations were sent to study participants on a 3-month interval between November 1, 2018, and September 23, 2019. Overall, 3 incentive levels were randomly assigned by participant and survey round: (1) no incentive, (2) 2 Zambian Kwacha (ZMW; US $0.16), and (3) 5 ZMW (US $0.42). Survey response rates were analyzed using mixed-effects Poisson regression, adjusting for individual- and facility-level factors. Probability plots for survey completion were generated based on language, incentive level, and survey round. We projected the cost per additional response for different incentive levels. RESULTS: A total of 1006 participants were enrolled, with 72.3% (727/1006) from the urban HIV care facility and 62.4% (628/1006) requesting the survey in English. We sent a total of 1992 survey invitations for both rounds. Overall, survey completion across both surveys was 32.1% (637/1992), with significantly different survey completion between the first (40.5%, 95% CI 37.4-43.6%) and second (23.7%, 95% CI 21.1-26.4) invitations. Implementing a 5 ZMW (US $0.42) incentive significantly increased the adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) for survey completion compared with those that received no incentive (aPR 1.35, 95% CI 1.11-1.63). The cost per additional response was highest at 5 ZMW, equivalent to US $0.42 (72.8 ZMW [US $5.82] per 1% increase in response). CONCLUSIONS: We observed a sharp decline of almost 50% in survey completion success from the initial invitation to follow-up survey administered 3 months later. This substantial decrease suggests that longitudinal data collection potential for a care experience survey may be limited without additional sensitization and, potentially, added survey reminders. Implementing a moderate incentive increased response rates to our health care experience survey. Tailoring survey strategies to accommodate language preferences and providing moderate incentives can optimize response rates in Zambia. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Pan African Clinical Trial Registry PACTR202101847907585; https://pactr.samrc.ac.za/TrialDisplay.aspx?TrialID=14613.

Intersection of alcohol use, HIV infection, and the HIV care continuum in Zambia: nationally representative survey.

Through a nationally-representative household survey, we measured the prevalence and correlates of unhealthy alcohol use (UAU) in Zambia and its association with the HIV care continuum. Adolescent and adult (ages 15-59 years) data, including the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption (AUDIT-C), from the 2016 Zambia Population-based HIV Impact Assessment, were analyzed. UAU was defined as AUDIT-C of 3 + points for women and 4 + for men. Among 20,923 participants, 15.3% had UAU; this was 21.6% among people living with HIV (PLWH). Male sex, increasing age, being employed, urban residence, and having HIV were independent correlates of UAU (all P < 0.05). Among PLWH, UAU was associated with reduced HIV diagnosis (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 0.66, 95% CI 0.50-0.88) and non-significant trends toward reduced ART use if diagnosed (AOR: 0.73, 95% CI 0.73-1.10) and reduced viral suppression (VS) if on ART (AOR: 0.91, 95% CI 0.57-1.44). Overall, UAU was linked to 25% lower odds of VS compared to abstinence. UAU in Zambia disproportionately affects certain groups including PLWH. Achieving and sustaining HIV epidemic control in Zambia will require evidence-based approaches to screen and treat UAU.

HIV care experiences and health priorities during the first wave of COVID-19: clients' perspectives - a qualitative study in Lusaka, Zambia.

BACKGROUND: The novel COVID-19 pandemic threatened to disrupt access to human immunodeficiency (HIV) treatment for persons living with HIV (PLHIV), two-thirds of whom live in sub-Saharan Africa. To inform a health system response supportive of continuity of care, we sought to understand clients' HIV care experiences and health priorities during the first wave of COVID-19 outbreak in Lusaka, Zambia. METHODS: Leveraging a study cohort of those who completed periodic SMS surveys on HIV care, we purposefully sampled 25 PLHIV after first confirmed COVID-19 case was reported in Zambia on 18th March 2020. We phone-interviewed participants, iteratively refining interview guide to capture emergent themes on COVID-19 awareness, health facility interactions, and social circumstances, which we analyzed using matrix analysis. RESULTS: All participants were aware of COVID-19, and HIV care experiences and health priorities of clients were affected by associated changes at health system, household, and individual level. The health system instituted early clinic visits to provide 6-months of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for stable patients and 3-months for unstable patients to reduce clinic visits and wait times. Most patients welcomed this long-desired extended appointment spacing. Some reported feeling respected and engaged when health care workers telephoned requesting their early clinic visit. However, others felt discouraged by an absence of physical distancing during their clinic visit due to 'severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2' (SARS-CoV-2) infection concerns. Several expressed a lack of clarity regarding next viral load monitoring date and means for receiving results. Patients suggested regular patient-facility communication by telephone and SMS. Patients emphasized that COVID-19 restrictions led to loss of employment and household income, exacerbating poverty and difficulties in taking ART. At individual level, most participants felt motivated to stay healthy during COVID-19 by ART adherence and regular laboratory monitoring. CONCLUSIONS: Clients' HIV care and health priorities during the first wave of COVID-19 in Lusaka province were varied with a combination of positive and negative experiences that occurred especially at health system and individual levels, while at household level, the experiences were all negative. More research is needed to understand how patients practice resiliency in the widespread context of socio-economic instability. Governments and patients must work together to find local, health systems solutions to support ART adherence and monitoring. Additionally, the health system should consider how to build on changes for long-term HIV management and service delivery.

Patient-reported Reasons for Stopping Care or Switching Clinics in Zambia: A Multisite, Regionally Representative Estimate Using a Multistage Sampling-based Approach in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Understanding patient-reported reasons for lapses of retention in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment can drive improvements in the care cascade. A systematic assessment of outcomes among a random sample of patients lost to follow-up (LTFU) from 32 clinics in Zambia to understand the reasons for silent transfers and disengagement from care was undertaken. METHODS: We traced a simple random sample of LTFU patients (>90 days from last scheduled visit) as determined from clinic-based electronic medical records from a probability sample of facilities. Among patients found in person, we solicited reasons for either stopping or switching care and predictors for re-engagement. We coded reasons into structural, psychosocial, and clinic-based barriers. RESULTS: Among 1751 LTFU patients traced and found alive, 31% of patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 1 July 2013 and 31 July 2015 silently transferred or were disengaged (40% male; median age, 35 years; median CD4 level, 239 cells/µL); median time on ART at LTFU was 480 days (interquartile range, 110-1295). Among the 544 patients not in care, median prevalences for patient-reported structural, psychosocial, and clinic-level barriers were 27.3%, 13.9%, and 13.4%, respectively, and were highly variable across facilities. Structural reasons, including, "relocated to a new place" were mostly cited among 289 patients who silently transferred (35.5%). We found that men were less likely to re-engage in care than women (odds ratio, .39; 95% confidence interval, .22-.67; P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: Efforts to improve retention of patients on ART may need to be tailored at the facility level to address patient-reported barriers.

The revolving door of HIV care: Revising the service delivery cascade to achieve the UNAIDS 95-95-95 goals.

Peter Ehrenkranz and co-authors present a cyclical cascade of care for people with HIV infection, aiming to facilitate assessment of outcomes.

Longitudinal Care Cascade Outcomes Among People Eligible for Antiretroviral Therapy Who Are Newly Linking to Care in Zambia: A Multistate Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Retention in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care is dynamic, with patients frequently transitioning in and out of care. Analytical approaches (eg, survival analyses) commonly used to assess HIV care cascade outcomes fail to capture such transitions and therefore incompletely represent care outcomes over time. METHODS: We analyzed antiretroviral therapy (ART)-eligible adults newly linking to care at 64 clinics in Zambia between 1 April 2014 and 31 July 2015. We used electronic medical record data and supplemented these with updated care outcomes ascertained by tracing a multistage random sample of patients lost to follow-up (LTFU, >90 days late for last appointment). We performed multistate analyses, incorporating weights from sampling, to estimate the prevalence of 9 care states over time since linkage with respect to ART initiation, retention in care, transfers, and mortality. RESULTS: In sum, 23 227 patients (58% female; median age 34 years [interquartile range 28-41]) were ART-eligible at enrollment. At 1 year, 75.2% had initiated ART and were in care: 61.8% were continuously retained, 6.1% had reengaged after LTFU, and 7.3% had transferred. Also, 10.1% were LTFU within 7 days of enrollment, and 15.2% were LTFU at 1 year (6.7% prior to ART). One year after LTFU, 51.6% of those LTFU prior to ART remained out of care compared to 30.2% of those LTFU after initiating ART. Overall, 6.9% of patients had died by 1 year with 3.0% dying prior to ART. CONCLUSION: Multistate analyses provide more complete assessments of longitudinal HIV cascade outcomes and reveal treatment gaps at distinct timepoints in care that will still need to be addressed even with universal treatment.

Participation in adherence clubs and on-time drug pickup among HIV-infected adults in Zambia: A matched-pair cluster randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Current models of HIV service delivery, with frequent facility visits, have led to facility congestion, patient and healthcare provider dissatisfaction, and suboptimal quality of services and retention in care. The Zambian urban adherence club (AC) is a health service innovation designed to improve on-time drug pickup and retention in HIV care through off-hours facility access and pharmacist-led group drug distribution. Similar models of differentiated service delivery (DSD) have shown promise in South Africa, but observational analyses of these models are prone to bias and confounding. We sought to evaluate the effectiveness and implementation of ACs in Zambia using a more rigorous study design. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using a matched-pair cluster randomized study design (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02776254), 10 clinics were randomized to intervention (5 clinics) or control (5 clinics). At each clinic, between May 19 and October 27, 2016, a systematic random sample was assessed for eligibility (HIV+, age ≥ 14 years, on ART >6 months, not acutely ill, CD4 count not <200 cells/mm3) and willingness to participate in an AC. Clinical and antiretroviral drug pickup data were obtained through the existing electronic medical record. AC meeting attendance data were collected at intervention facilities prospectively through October 28, 2017. The primary outcome was time to first late drug pickup (>7 days late). Intervention effect was estimated using unadjusted Kaplan-Meier survival curves and a Cox proportional hazards model to derive an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR). Medication possession ratio (MPR) and implementation outcomes (adoption, acceptability, appropriateness, feasibility, and fidelity) were additionally evaluated as secondary outcomes. Baseline characteristics were similar between 571 intervention and 489 control participants with respect to median age (42 versus 41 years), sex (62% versus 66% female), median time since ART initiation (4.8 versus 5.0 years), median CD4 count at study enrollment (506 versus 533 cells/mm3), and baseline retention (53% versus 55% with at least 1 late drug pickup in previous 12 months). The rate of late drug pickup was lower in intervention participants compared to control participants (aHR 0.26, 95% CI 0.15-0.45, p < 0.001). Median MPR was 100% in intervention participants compared to 96% in control participants (p < 0.001). Although 18% (683/3,734) of AC group meeting visits were missed, on-time drug pickup (within 7 days) still occurred in 51% (350/683) of these missed visits through alternate means (use of buddy pickup or early return to the facility). Qualitative evaluation suggests that the intervention was acceptable to both patients and providers. While patients embraced the convenience and patient-centeredness of the model, preference for traditional adherence counseling and need for greater human resources influenced intervention appropriateness and feasibility from the provider perspective. The main limitations of this study were the small number of clusters, lack of viral load data, and relatively short follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: ACs were found to be an effective model of service delivery for reducing late ART drug pickup among HIV-infected adults in Zambia. Drug pickup outside of group meetings was relatively common and underscores the need for DSD models to be flexible and patient-centered if they are to be effective. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02776254.

Mortality estimates by age and sex among persons living with HIV after ART initiation in Zambia using electronic medical records supplemented with tracing a sample of lost patients: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Men in sub-Saharan Africa have lower engagement and retention in HIV services compared to women, which may result in differential survival. However, the true magnitude of difference in HIV-related mortality between men and women receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is incompletely characterized. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We evaluated HIV-positive adults ≥18 years old newly initiating ART in 4 Zambian provinces (Eastern, Lusaka, Southern, and Western). In addition to mortality data obtained from routine electronic medical records, we intensively traced a random sample of patients lost to follow-up (LTFU) and incorporated tracing outcomes through inverse probability weights. Sex-specific mortality rates and rate differences were determined using Poisson regression. Parametric g-computation was used to estimate adjusted mortality rates by sex and age. The study included 49,129 adults newly initiated on ART between August 2013 and July 2015; overall, the median age among patients was 35 years, the median baseline CD4 count was 262 cells/µl, and 37.2% were men. Men comprised a smaller proportion of individuals starting ART (37.2% versus 62.8%), tended to be older (median age 37 versus 33 years), and tended to have lower CD4 counts (median 220 versus 289 cells/µl) at the time of ART initiation compared to women. The overall rate of mortality among men was 10.3 (95% CI 8.2-12.4) deaths/100 person-years (PYs), compared to 5.5 (95% CI 4.3-6.8) deaths/100 PYs among women (difference +4.7 [95% CI 2.3-7.2] deaths/100 PYs; p < 0.001). Compared to women in the same age groups, men's mortality rates were particularly elevated among those <30 years old (+6.7 deaths/100 PYs difference), those attending rural health centers (+9.4 deaths/100 PYs difference), those who had an initial CD4 count < 100 cells/µl (+9.2 deaths/100 PYs difference), and those who were unmarried (+8.0 deaths/100 PYs difference). After adjustment for potential confounders and mediators including CD4 count, a substantially higher mortality rate was predicted among men <30 years old compared to women of the same age, while women ≥50 years old had a mortality rate similar to that of age-matched men, but considerably higher than that predicted among young women (<30 years old). No clinically significant differences were evident with respect to rates of facility transfer or care disengagement between men and women. The main study limitations were the inability to successfully ascertain outcomes in all patients selected for tracing and missing clinical and laboratory data due to the use of medical records. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that among HIV-positive adults newly initiating ART, mortality among men exceeded mortality among women; disparities were most pronounced among young patients. Older women, however, also experienced high mortality. Specific interventions for men and older women at highest mortality risk are needed to improve HIV treatment outcomes.

Emerging priorities for HIV service delivery.

Nathan Ford and co-authors discuss global priorities in the provision of HIV prevention and treatment services.

Evaluating the impact of antiretroviral and antiseizure medication interactions on treatment effectiveness among outpatient clinic attendees with HIV in Zambia.

OBJECTIVE: Interactions between enzyme-inducing anti-seizure medications (EI-ASMs) and antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) can lead to decreased ARV levels and may increase the likelihood of viral resistance. We conducted a study to determine if co-usage of ARVs and EI-ASMs is associated with ARV-resistant human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) among people living with HIV in Zambia. METHODS: Eligible participants were ≥18 years of age and concurrently taking ASMs and ARVs for at least 1 month of the prior 6-month period. Data were obtained regarding medication and HIV history. CD4 counts, plasma viral loads (pVLs), and HIV genotype and resistance profile in participants with a pVL >1000 copies/mL were obtained. Pearson's test of independence was used to determine whether treatment with EI-ASM was associated with pVL >1000/mL copies. RESULTS: Of 50 participants, 41 (82%) were taking carbamazepine (37 on monotherapy), and all had stable regimens in the prior 6 months. Among the 13 ARV regimens used, 68% had a tenofovir/lamivudine backbone. The majority (94%) were on a stable ARV regimen for >6 months. Median CD4 nadir was 205 cells/mm3 (interquartile range [IQR] 88-389), and 60% of participants had commenced ARV treatment before advanced disease occurred. Mean CD4 count at enrollment was 464 cells/mm3 (SD 226.3). Seven participants (14%) had a CD4 count <200 cells/mm3 . Four (8%) had a pVL >1000 copies/mL; all were on carbamazepine. Three participants with elevated pVL had a CD4 count <200 cells/mm3 . None had documented adherence concerns by providers; however, two had events concerning for clinical failure. HIV genotype testing showed mutations in three participants. Carbamazepine was not found to correlate with elevated pVL (P = .58). SIGNIFICANCE: EI-ASMs are commonly used in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite concurrent use of EI-ASMs and ARVs, the majority of participants showed CD4 counts >200 cells/mm3 and were virally suppressed. Carbamazepine was not associated with an increased risk of virological failure or ARV-resistant HIV.

Understanding Engagement in HIV Programmes: How Health Services Can Adapt to Ensure No One Is Left Behind.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Despite the significant progress in the HIV response, gaps remain in ensuring engagement in care to support life-long medication adherence and viral suppression. This review sought to describe the different points in the HIV care cascade where people living with HIV were not engaging and highlight promising interventions. RECENT FINDINGS: There are opportunities to improve engagement both between testing and treatment and to support re-engagement in care for those in a treatment interruption. The gap between testing and treatment includes people who know their HIV status and people who do not know their status. People in a treatment interruption include those who interrupt immediately following initiation, early on in their treatment (first 6 months) and late (after 6 months or more on ART). For each of these groups, specific interventions are required to support improved engagement. There are diverse needs and specific populations of people living with HIV who are not engaged in care, and differentiated service delivery interventions are required to meet their needs and expectations. For the HIV response to realise the 2030 targets, engagement will need to be supported by quality care and patient choice combined with empowered patients who are treatment literate and have been supported to improve self-management.

Addressing Common Mental Health Disorders Among Incarcerated People Living with HIV: Insights from Implementation Science for Service Integration and Delivery.

PURPOSE: Despite evidence of disproportionate burden of HIV and mental health disorders among incarcerated people, scarce services exist to address common mental health disorders, including major depressive and anxiety disorders, post-traumatic stress disorder, and substance use disorders, among incarcerated people living with HIV (PLHIV) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This paper aims to summarize current knowledge on mental health interventions of relevance to incarcerated PLHIV and apply implementation science theory to highlight strategies and approaches to deliver mental health services for PLHIV in correctional settings in SSA. RECENT FINDINGS: Scarce evidence-based mental health interventions have been rigorously evaluated among incarcerated PLHIV in SSA. Emerging evidence from low- and middle-income countries and correctional settings outside SSA point to a role for cognitive behavioral therapy-based talking and group interventions implemented using task-shifting strategies involving lay health workers and peer educators. Several mental health interventions and implementation strategies hold promise for addressing common mental health disorders among incarcerated PLHIV in SSA. However, to deliver these approaches, there must first be pragmatic efforts to build corrections health system capacity, address human rights abuses that exacerbate HIV and mental health, and re-conceptualize mental health services as integral to quality HIV service delivery and universal access to primary healthcare for all incarcerated people.

Increase in Antiretroviral Therapy Enrollment Among Persons with HIV Infection During the Lusaka HIV Treatment Surge - Lusaka Province, Zambia, January 2018-June 2019.

Within Zambia, a landlocked country in southern-central Africa, the highest prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is in Lusaka Province (population 3.2 million), where approximately 340,000 persons are estimated to be infected (1). The 2016 Zambia Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (ZAMPHIA) estimated the adult HIV prevalence in Lusaka Province to be 15.7%, with a 62.7% viral load suppression rate (HIV-1 RNA <1,000 copies/mL) (2). ZAMPHIA results highlighted remaining treatment gaps in Zambia overall and by subpopulation. In January 2018, Zambia launched the Lusaka Province HIV Treatment Surge (Surge project) to increase enrollment of persons with HIV infection onto antiretroviral therapy (ART). The Zambia Ministry of Health (MoH), CDC, and partners analyzed the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) Monitoring and Evaluation Reporting data set to assess the effectiveness of the first 18 months of the Surge project (January 2018-June 2019). During this period, approximately 100,000 persons with positive test results for HIV began ART. These new ART clients were more likely to be persons aged 15-24 years. In addition, the number of persons with documented viral load suppression doubled from 66,109 to 134,046. Lessons learned from the Surge project, including collaborative leadership, efforts to improve facility-level performance, and innovative strategies to disseminate successful practices, could increase HIV treatment rates in other high-prevalence settings.

Patients' Satisfaction with HIV Care Providers in Public Health Facilities in Lusaka: A Study of Patients who were Lost-to-Follow-Up from HIV Care and Treatment.

Prognosis among those who are HIV infected has improved but long-term retention is challenging. Health systems may benefit from routinely measuring patient satisfaction which is a potential driver of engagement in HIV care, but it is not often measured in Africa, and Zambia in particular. This study aims to internally validate a patient satisfaction tool, assess satisfaction among patients previously lost-to-follow up (LTFU) from HIV care in Lusaka province and to measure association between patient satisfaction with their original clinic and re-engagement in HIV care. A cross-sectional assessment of satisfaction was conducted by tracing sampled patients drawn from public health facilities. Our findings suggest that satisfaction tool, previously validated in USA, exhibits high internal consistency for measuring patient satisfaction in the Zambian health system. Patient satisfaction with healthcare providers is associated with re-engagement in HIV care. Future interventions on patient-centred care are likely to optimize and support retention in care.

How might improved estimates of HIV programme outcomes influence practice? A formative study of evidence, dissemination and response.

BACKGROUND: While HIV programmes have started millions of persons on life-saving antiretroviral therapy in Africa, longitudinal health information systems are frail and, therefore, data about long-term survival is often inaccurate or unknown to HIV programmes. The 'Better Information for Health in Zambia' (BetterInfo) Study - a regional sampling-based survey to assess retention and mortality in HIV programmes in Zambia - found both retention and mortality to be higher than prevailing estimates from national surveillance systems. We sought to understand how Zambian health decision-makers at different health system levels would respond to these new data, with a view to informing research translation. METHODS: We interviewed 25 purposefully sampled health decision-makers from community, facility, district, provincial and national levels. During the interviews, we shared retention and mortality estimates from both routine programme surveillance and those generated by the study. Transcripts were analysed for inductive and deductive themes, the latter drawing on Weiss's framework that policy-makers interpret and apply evidence as 'warning', 'guidance', 'reconceptualisation' or 'mobilisation of support'. FINDINGS: All decision-makers found study findings relevant and important. Decision-makers viewed the underestimates of mortality to be a warning about the veracity and informativeness of routine data systems. Decision-makers felt guided by the findings to improve data monitoring and, acknowledging limitations of routine data, utilised episodic patient tracing to support improved data accuracy. Findings catalysed renewed motivation and mobilisation by national level decision-makers for differentiated models of HIV care to improve patient outcomes and also improved data management systems to better capture patient outcomes. Inductive analysis highlighted a programmatic application data interpretation, in which study findings can influence facility and patient-level decision-making, quality of care and routine data management. CONCLUSIONS: New epidemiological data on patient outcomes were widely seen as informative and relevant and can potentially catalyse health system action such as using evaluations to supplement electronic medical record data to improve HIV programmes. Formative evidence suggests that targeting research dissemination at different levels of the health system will elicit different responses. Researchers supporting the translation of evidence to action should leverage all relevant levels of the health system to facilitate both policy and programmatic action.

Retention and viral suppression in a cohort of HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy in Zambia: Regionally representative estimates using a multistage-sampling-based approach.

BACKGROUND: Although the success of HIV treatment programs depends on retention and viral suppression, routine program monitoring of these outcomes may be incomplete. We used data from the national electronic medical record (EMR) system in Zambia to enumerate a large and regionally representative cohort of patients on treatment. We traced a random sample with unknown outcomes (lost to follow-up) to document true care status and HIV RNA levels. METHODS AND FINDINGS: On 31 July 2015, we selected facilities from 4 provinces in 12 joint strata defined by facility type and province with probability proportional to size. In each facility, we enumerated adults with at least 1 clinical encounter after treatment initiation in the previous 24 months. From this cohort, we identified lost-to-follow-up patients (defined as 90 or more days late for their last appointment), selected a random sample, and intensively reviewed their records and traced them via phone calls and in-person visits in the community. In 1 of 4 provinces, we also collected dried blood spots (DBSs) for plasma HIV RNA testing. We used inverse probability weights to incorporate sampling outcomes into Aalen-Johansen and Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate retention and viremia. We used a bias analysis approach to correct for the known inaccuracy of plasma HIV RNA levels obtained from DBSs. From a total of 64 facilities with 165,464 adults on ART, we selected 32 facilities with 104,966 patients, of whom 17,602 (17%) were lost to follow-up: Those lost to follow-up had median age 36 years, 60% were female (N = 11,241), they had median enrollment CD4 count of 220 cells/µl, and 38% had WHO stage 1 clinical disease (N = 10,690). We traced 2,892 (16%) and found updated outcomes for 2,163 (75%): 412 (19%) had died, 836 (39%) were alive and in care at their original clinic, 457 (21%) had transferred to a new clinic, 255 (12%) were alive and out of care, and 203 (9%) were alive but we were unable to determine care status. Estimates using data from the EMR only suggested that 42.7% (95% CI 38.0%-47.1%) of new ART starters and 72.3% (95% CI 71.8%-73.0%) of all ART users were retained at 2 years. After incorporating updated data through tracing, we found that 77.3% (95% CI 70.5%-84.0%) of new initiates and 91.2% (95% CI 90.5%-91.8%) of all ART users were retained (at original clinic or transferred), indicating that routine program data underestimated retention in care markedly. In Lusaka Province, HIV RNA levels greater than or equal to 1,000 copies/ml were present in 18.1% (95% CI 14.0%-22.3%) of patients in care, 71.3% (95% CI 58.2%-84.4%) of lost patients, and 24.7% (95% CI 21.0%-29.3%). The main study limitations were imperfect response rates and the use of self-reported care status. CONCLUSIONS: In this region of Zambia, routine program data underestimated retention, and the point prevalence of unsuppressed HIV RNA was high when lost patients were accounted for. Viremia was prevalent among patients who unofficially transferred: Sustained engagement remains a challenge among HIV patients in Zambia, and targeted sampling is an effective strategy to identify such gaps in the care cascade and monitor programmatic progress.

Correction: Retention and viral suppression in a cohort of HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy in Zambia: Regionally representative estimates using a multistage-sampling-based approach.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002811.].

Longitudinal engagement trajectories and risk of death among new ART starters in Zambia: A group-based multi-trajectory analysis.

BACKGROUND: Retention in HIV treatment must be improved to advance the HIV response, but research to characterize gaps in retention has focused on estimates from single time points and population-level averages. These approaches do not assess the engagement patterns of individual patients over time and fail to account for both their dynamic nature and the heterogeneity between patients. We apply group-based trajectory analysis-a special application of latent class analysis to longitudinal data-among new antiretroviral therapy (ART) starters in Zambia to identify groups defined by engagement patterns over time and to assess their association with mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed a cohort of HIV-infected adults who newly started ART between August 1, 2013, and February 1, 2015, across 64 clinics in Zambia. We performed group-based multi-trajectory analysis to identify subgroups with distinct trajectories in medication possession ratio (MPR, a validated adherence metric based on pharmacy refill data) over the past 3 months and loss to follow-up (LTFU, >90 days late for last visit) among patients with at least 180 days of observation time. We used multinomial logistic regression to identify baseline factors associated with belonging to particular trajectory groups. We obtained Kaplan-Meier estimates with bootstrapped confidence intervals of the cumulative incidence of mortality stratified by trajectory group and performed adjusted Poisson regression to estimate adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) for mortality by trajectory group. Inverse probability weights were applied to all analyses to account for updated outcomes ascertained from tracing a random subset of patients lost to follow-up as of July 31, 2015. Overall, 38,879 patients (63.3% female, median age 35 years [IQR 29-41], median enrollment CD4 count 280 cells/µl [IQR 146-431]) were included in our cohort. Analyses revealed 6 trajectory groups among the new ART starters: (1) 28.5% of patients demonstrated consistently high adherence and retention; (2) 22.2% showed early nonadherence but consistent retention; (3) 21.6% showed gradually decreasing adherence and retention; (4) 8.6% showed early LTFU with later reengagement; (5) 8.7% had early LTFU without reengagement; and (6) 10.4% had late LTFU without reengagement. Identified groups exhibited large differences in survival: after adjustment, the "early LTFU with reengagement" group (aIRR 3.4 [95% CI 1.2-9.7], p = 0.019), the "early LTFU" group (aIRR 6.4 [95% CI 2.5-16.3], p < 0.001), and the "late LTFU" group (aIRR 4.7 [95% CI 2.0-11.3], p = 0.001) had higher rates of mortality as compared to the group with consistently high adherence/retention. Limitations of this study include using data observed after baseline to identify trajectory groups and to classify patients into these groups, excluding patients who died or transferred within the first 180 days, and the uncertain generalizability of the data to current care standards. CONCLUSIONS: Among new ART starters in Zambia, we observed 6 patient subgroups that demonstrated distinctive engagement trajectories over time and that were associated with marked differences in the subsequent risk of mortality. Further efforts to develop tailored intervention strategies for different types of engagement behaviors, monitor early engagement to identify higher-risk patients, and better understand the determinants of these heterogeneous behaviors can help improve care delivery and survival in this population.

A Review of Differentiated Service Delivery for HIV Treatment: Effectiveness, Mechanisms, Targeting, and Scale.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Differentiated service delivery (DSD) models were initially developed as a means to combat suboptimal long-term retention in HIV care, and to better titrate limited health systems resources to patient needs, primarily in low-income countries. The models themselves are designed to streamline care along the HIV care cascade and range from individual to group-based care and facility to community-based health delivery systems. However, much remains to be understood about how well and for whom DSD models work and whether these models can be scaled, are sustainable, and can reach vulnerable and high-risk populations. Implementation science is tasked with addressing some of these questions through systematic, scientific inquiry. We review the available published evidence on the implementation of DSD and suggest further health systems innovations needed to maximize the public health impact of DSD and future implementation science research directions in this expanding field. RECENT FINDINGS: While early observational data supported the effectiveness of various DSD models, more recently published trials as well as evaluations of national scale-up provide more rigorous evidence for effectiveness and performance at scale. Deeper understanding of the mechanism of effect of various DSD models and generalizability of studies to other countries or contexts remains somewhat limited. Relative implementability of DSD models may differ based on patient preference, logistical complexity of model adoption and maintenance, human resource and pharmacy supply chain needs, and comparative cost-effectiveness. However, few studies to date have evaluated comparative implementation or cost-effectiveness from a health systems perspective. While DSD represents an exciting and promising "next step" in HIV health care delivery, this innovation comes with its own set of implementation challenges. Evidence on the effectiveness of DSD generally supports the use of most DSD models, although it is still unclear which models are most relevant in diverse settings and populations and which are the most cost-effective. Challenges during scale-up highlight the need for accurate differentiation of patients, sustainable inclusion of a new cadre of health care worker (the community health care worker), and substantial strengthening of existing pharmacy supply chains. To maximize the public health impact of DSD, systems need to be patient-centered and adaptive, as well as employ robust quality improvement processes.