Impact and cost-effectiveness of the 6-month BPaLM regimen for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis in Moldova: A mathematical modeling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Emerging evidence suggests that shortened, simplified treatment regimens for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (RR-TB) can achieve comparable end-of-treatment (EOT) outcomes to longer regimens. We compared a 6-month regimen containing bedaquiline, pretomanid, linezolid, and moxifloxacin (BPaLM) to a standard of care strategy using a 9- or 18-month regimen depending on whether fluoroquinolone resistance (FQ-R) was detected on drug susceptibility testing (DST). METHODS AND FINDINGS: The primary objective was to determine whether 6 months of BPaLM is a cost-effective treatment strategy for RR-TB. We used genomic and demographic data to parameterize a mathematical model estimating long-term health outcomes measured in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and lifetime costs in 2022 USD ($) for each treatment strategy for patients 15 years and older diagnosed with pulmonary RR-TB in Moldova, a country with a high burden of TB drug resistance. For each individual, we simulated the natural history of TB and associated treatment outcomes, as well as the process of acquiring resistance to each of 12 anti-TB drugs. Compared to the standard of care, 6 months of BPaLM was cost-effective. This strategy was estimated to reduce lifetime costs by $3,366 (95% UI: [1,465, 5,742] p < 0.001) per individual, with a nonsignificant change in QALYs (-0.06; 95% UI: [-0.49, 0.03] p = 0.790). For those stopping moxifloxacin under the BPaLM regimen, continuing with BPaL plus clofazimine (BPaLC) provided more QALYs at lower cost than continuing with BPaL alone. Strategies based on 6 months of BPaLM had at least a 93% chance of being cost-effective, so long as BPaLC was continued in the event of stopping moxifloxacin. BPaLM for 6 months also reduced the average time spent with TB resistant to amikacin, bedaquiline, clofazimine, cycloserine, moxifloxacin, and pyrazinamide, while it increased the average time spent with TB resistant to delamanid and pretomanid. Sensitivity analyses showed 6 months of BPaLM to be cost-effective across a broad range of values for the relative effectiveness of BPaLM, and the proportion of the cohort with FQ-R. Compared to the standard of care, 6 months of BPaLM would be expected to save Moldova's national TB program budget $7.1 million (95% UI: [1.3 million, 15.4 million] p = 0.002) over the 5-year period from implementation. Our analysis did not account for all possible interactions between specific drugs with regard to treatment outcomes, resistance acquisition, or the consequences of specific types of severe adverse events, nor did we model how the intervention may affect TB transmission dynamics. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to standard of care, longer regimens, the implementation of the 6-month BPaLM regimen could improve the cost-effectiveness of care for individuals diagnosed with RR-TB, particularly in settings with a high burden of drug-resistant TB. Further research may be warranted to explore the impact and cost-effectiveness of shorter RR-TB regimens across settings with varied drug-resistant TB burdens and national income levels.

A Scoping Review and Taxonomy of Epidemiological-Macroeconomic Models of COVID-19.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic placed significant strain on many health systems and economies. Mitigation policies decreased health impacts but had major macroeconomic impact. This article reviews models combining epidemiological and macroeconomic projections to enable policy makers to consider both macroeconomic and health objectives. METHODS: A scoping review of epidemiological-macroeconomic models of COVID-19 was conducted, covering preprints, working articles, and journal publications. We assessed model methodologies, scope, and application to empirical data. RESULTS: We found 80 articles modeling both the epidemiological and macroeconomic outcomes of COVID-19. Model scope is often limited to the impact of lockdown on health and total gross domestic product or aggregate consumption and to high-income countries. Just 14% of models assess disparities or poverty. Most models fall under 4 categories: compartmental-utility-maximization models, epidemiological models with stylized macroeconomic projections, epidemiological models linked to computable general equilibrium or input-output models, and epidemiological-economic agent-based models. We propose a taxonomy comparing these approaches to guide future model development. CONCLUSIONS: The epidemiological-macroeconomic models of COVID-19 identified have varying complexity and meet different modeling needs. Priorities for future modeling include increasing developing country applications, assessing disparities and poverty, and estimating of long-run impacts. This may require better integration between epidemiologists and economists.

Safe inhalation pipe provision (SIPP): protocol for a mixed-method evaluation of an intervention to improve health outcomes and service engagement among people who use crack cocaine in England.

BACKGROUND: Over 180,000 people use crack cocaine in England, yet provision of smoking equipment to support safer crack use is prohibited under UK law. Pipes used for crack cocaine smoking are often homemade and/or in short supply, leading to pipe sharing and injuries from use of unsafe materials. This increases risk of viral infection and respiratory harm among a marginalised underserved population. International evaluations suggest crack pipe supply leads to sustained reductions in pipe sharing and use of homemade equipment; increased health risk awareness; improved service access; reduction in injecting and crack-related health problems. In this paper, we introduce the protocol for the NIHR-funded SIPP (Safe inhalation pipe provision) project and discuss implications for impact. METHODS: The SIPP study will develop, implement and evaluate a crack smoking equipment and training intervention to be distributed through peer networks and specialist drug services in England. Study components comprise: (1) peer-network capacity building and co-production; (2) a pre- and post-intervention survey at intervention and non-equivalent control sites; (3) a mixed-method process evaluation; and (4) an economic evaluation. Participant eligibility criteria are use of crack within the past 28 days, with a survey sample of ~ 740 for each impact evaluation survey point and ~ 40 for qualitative process evaluation interviews. Our primary outcome measure is pipe sharing within the past 28 days, with secondary outcomes pertaining to use of homemade pipes, service engagement, injecting practice and acute health harms. ANTICIPATED IMPACT: SIPP aims to reduce crack use risk practices and associated health harms; including through increasing crack harm reduction awareness among service providers and peers. Implementation has only been possible with local police approvals. Our goal is to generate an evidence base to inform review of the legislation prohibiting crack pipe supply in the UK. This holds potential to transform harm reduction service provision and engagement nationally. CONCLUSION: People who smoke crack cocaine in England currently have little reason to engage with harm reduction and drug services. Little is known about this growing population. This study will provide insight into population characteristics, unmet need and the case for legislative reform. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN12541454  https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN12541454.

Adaptive Health Technology Assessment: A Scoping Review of Methods.

OBJECTIVES: Health technology assessment (HTA) is an established mechanism for explicit priority setting to support universal health coverage. However, full HTA requires significant time, data, and capacity for each intervention, which limits the number of decisions it can inform. Another approach systematically adapts full HTA methods by leveraging HTA evidence from other settings. We call this "adaptive" HTA (aHTA), although in settings where time is the main constraint, it is also called "rapid HTA." METHODS: The objectives of this scoping review were to identify and map existing aHTA methods, and to assess their triggers, strengths, and weaknesses. This was done by searching HTA agencies' and networks' websites, and the published literature. Findings have been narratively synthesized. RESULTS: This review identified 20 countries and 1 HTA network with aHTA methods in the Americas, Europe, Africa, and South-East Asia. These methods have been characterized into 5 types: rapid reviews, rapid cost-effectiveness analyses, rapid manufacturer submissions, transfers, and de facto HTA. Three characteristics "trigger" the use of aHTA instead of full HTA: urgency, certainty, and low budget impact. Sometimes, an iterative approach to selecting methods guides whether to do aHTA or full HTA. aHTA was found to be faster and more efficient, useful for decision makers, and to reduce duplication. Nevertheless, there is limited standardization, transparency, and measurement of uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS: aHTA is used in many settings. It has potential to improve the efficiency of any priority-setting system, but needs to be better formalized to improve uptake, particularly for nascent HTA systems.

Correction: COVID-19 vaccination in Sindh Province, Pakistan: A modelling study of health impact and cost-effectiveness.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003815.].

COVID-19 vaccination in Sindh Province, Pakistan: A modelling study of health impact and cost-effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Multiple Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines appear to be safe and efficacious, but only high-income countries have the resources to procure sufficient vaccine doses for most of their eligible populations. The World Health Organization has published guidelines for vaccine prioritisation, but most vaccine impact projections have focused on high-income countries, and few incorporate economic considerations. To address this evidence gap, we projected the health and economic impact of different vaccination scenarios in Sindh Province, Pakistan (population: 48 million). METHODS AND FINDINGS: We fitted a compartmental transmission model to COVID-19 cases and deaths in Sindh from 30 April to 15 September 2020. We then projected cases, deaths, and hospitalisation outcomes over 10 years under different vaccine scenarios. Finally, we combined these projections with a detailed economic model to estimate incremental costs (from healthcare and partial societal perspectives), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for each scenario. We project that 1 year of vaccine distribution, at delivery rates consistent with COVAX projections, using an infection-blocking vaccine at $3/dose with 70% efficacy and 2.5-year duration of protection is likely to avert around 0.9 (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.9, 1.0) million cases, 10.1 (95% CrI: 10.1, 10.3) thousand deaths, and 70.1 (95% CrI: 69.9, 70.6) thousand DALYs, with an ICER of $27.9 per DALY averted from the health system perspective. Under a broad range of alternative scenarios, we find that initially prioritising the older (65+) population generally prevents more deaths. However, unprioritised distribution has almost the same cost-effectiveness when considering all outcomes, and both prioritised and unprioritised programmes can be cost-effective for low per-dose costs. High vaccine prices ($10/dose), however, may not be cost-effective, depending on the specifics of vaccine performance, distribution programme, and future pandemic trends. The principal drivers of the health outcomes are the fitted values for the overall transmission scaling parameter and disease natural history parameters from other studies, particularly age-specific probabilities of infection and symptomatic disease, as well as social contact rates. Other parameters are investigated in sensitivity analyses. This study is limited by model approximations, available data, and future uncertainty. Because the model is a single-population compartmental model, detailed impacts of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as household isolation cannot be practically represented or evaluated in combination with vaccine programmes. Similarly, the model cannot consider prioritising groups like healthcare or other essential workers. The model is only fitted to the reported case and death data, which are incomplete and not disaggregated by, e.g., age. Finally, because the future impact and implementation cost of NPIs are uncertain, how these would interact with vaccination remains an open question. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccination can have a considerable health impact and is likely to be cost-effective if more optimistic vaccine scenarios apply. Preventing severe disease is an important contributor to this impact. However, the advantage of prioritising older, high-risk populations is smaller in generally younger populations. This reduction is especially true in populations with more past transmission, and if the vaccine is likely to further impede transmission rather than just disease. Those conditions are typical of many low- and middle-income countries.

Meta-analysis of average costs of HIV testing and counselling and voluntary medical male circumcision across thirteen countries.

Objective: Explore facility-level average costs per client of HIV testing and counselling (HTC) and voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) services in 13 countries.Methods: Through a literature search we identified studies that reported facility-level costs of HTC or VMMC programmes. We requested the primary data from authors and standardised the disparate data sources to make them comparable. We then conducted descriptive statistics and a meta-analysis to assess the cost variation among facilities. All costs were converted to 2017 US dollars ($).Results: We gathered data from 14 studies across 13 countries and 772 facilities (552 HTC, 220 VMMC). The weighted average unit cost per client served was $15 (95% CI 12, 18) for HTC and $59 (95% CI 45, 74) for VMMC. On average, 38% of the mean unit cost for HTC corresponded to recurrent costs, 56% to personnel costs, and 6% to capital costs. For VMMC, 41% of the average unit cost corresponded to recurrent costs, 55% to personnel costs, and 4% to capital costs. We observed unit cost variation within and between countries, and lower costs in higher scale categories in all interventions.

Comparison of two cash transfer strategies to prevent catastrophic costs for poor tuberculosis-affected households in low- and middle-income countries: An economic modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Illness-related costs for patients with tuberculosis (TB) ≥20% of pre-illness annual household income predict adverse treatment outcomes and have been termed "catastrophic." Social protection initiatives, including cash transfers, are endorsed to help prevent catastrophic costs. With this aim, cash transfers may either be provided to defray TB-related costs of households with a confirmed TB diagnosis (termed a "TB-specific" approach); or to increase income of households with high TB risk to strengthen their economic resilience (termed a "TB-sensitive" approach). The impact of cash transfers provided with each of these approaches might vary. We undertook an economic modelling study from the patient perspective to compare the potential of these 2 cash transfer approaches to prevent catastrophic costs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Model inputs for 7 low- and middle-income countries (Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Ghana, Mexico, Tanzania, and Yemen) were retrieved by literature review and included countries' mean patient TB-related costs, mean household income, mean cash transfers, and estimated TB-specific and TB-sensitive target populations. Analyses were completed for drug-susceptible (DS) TB-related costs in all 7 out of 7 countries, and additionally for drug-resistant (DR) TB-related costs in 1 of the 7 countries with available data. All cost data were reported in 2013 international dollars ($). The target population for TB-specific cash transfers was poor households with a confirmed TB diagnosis, and for TB-sensitive cash transfers was poor households already targeted by countries' established poverty-reduction cash transfer programme. Cash transfers offered in countries, unrelated to TB, ranged from $217 to $1,091/year/household. Before cash transfers, DS TB-related costs were catastrophic in 6 out of 7 countries. If cash transfers were provided with a TB-specific approach, alone they would be insufficient to prevent DS TB catastrophic costs in 4 out of 6 countries, and when increased enough to prevent DS TB catastrophic costs would require a budget between $3.8 million (95% CI: $3.8 million-$3.8 million) and $75 million (95% CI: $50 million-$100 million) per country. If instead cash transfers were provided with a TB-sensitive approach, alone they would be insufficient to prevent DS TB-related catastrophic costs in any of the 6 countries, and when increased enough to prevent DS TB catastrophic costs would require a budget between $298 million (95% CI: $219 million-$378 million) and $165,367 million (95% CI: $134,085 million-$196,425 million) per country. DR TB-related costs were catastrophic before and after TB-specific or TB-sensitive cash transfers in 1 out of 1 countries. Sensitivity analyses showed our findings to be robust to imputation of missing TB-related cost components, and use of 10% or 30% instead of 20% as the threshold for measuring catastrophic costs. Key limitations were using national average data and not considering other health and social benefits of cash transfers. CONCLUSIONS: A TB-sensitive cash transfer approach to increase all poor households' income may have broad benefits by reducing poverty, but is unlikely to be as effective or affordable for preventing TB catastrophic costs as a TB-specific cash transfer approach to defray TB-related costs only in poor households with a confirmed TB diagnosis. Preventing DR TB-related catastrophic costs will require considerable additional investment whether a TB-sensitive or a TB-specific cash transfer approach is used.

Impact of Integrated Services on HIV Testing: A Nonrandomized Trial among Kenyan Family Planning Clients.

The impact of integrated reproductive health and HIV services on HIV testing and counseling (HTC) uptake was assessed among 882 Kenyan family planning clients using a nonrandomized cohort design within six intervention and six "comparison" facilities. The effect of integration on HTC goals (two tests over two years) was assessed using conditional logistic regression to test four "integration" exposures: a training and reorganization intervention; receipt of reproductive health and HIV services at recruitment; a functional measure of facility integration at recruitment; and a woman's cumulative exposure to functionally integrated care across different facilities over time. While recent receipt of HTC increased rapidly at intervention facilities, achievement of HTC goals was higher at comparison facilities. Only high cumulative exposure to integrated care over two years had a significant effect on HTC goals after adjustment (aOR 2.94, 95%CI 1.73-4.98), and programs should therefore make efforts to roll out integrated services to ensure repeated contact over time.

Does integration of HIV and SRH services achieve economies of scale and scope in practice? A cost function analysis of the Integra Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: Policy-makers have long argued about the potential efficiency gains and cost savings from integrating HIV and sexual reproductive health (SRH) services, particularly in resource-constrained settings with generalised HIV epidemics. However, until now, little empirical evidence exists on whether the hypothesised efficiency gains associated with such integration can be achieved in practice. METHODS: We estimated a quadratic cost function using data obtained from 40 health facilities, over a 2-year-period, in Kenya and Swaziland. The quadratic specification enables us to determine the existence of economies of scale and scope. FINDINGS: The empirical results reveal that at the current output levels, only HIV counselling and testing services are characterised by service-specific economies of scale. However, no overall economies of scale exist as all outputs are increased. The results also indicate cost complementarities between cervical cancer screening and HIV care; post-natal care and HIV care and family planning and sexually transmitted infection treatment combinations only. CONCLUSIONS: The results from this analysis reveal that contrary to expectation, efficiency gains from the integration of HIV and SRH services, if any, are likely to be modest. Efficiency gains are likely to be most achievable in settings that are currently delivering HIV and SRH services at a low scale with high levels of fixed costs. The presence of cost complementarities for only three service combinations implies that careful consideration of setting-specific clinical practices and the extent to which they can be combined should be made when deciding which services to integrate. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01694862.

Methodological Issues to Consider When Collecting Data to Estimate Poverty Impact in Economic Evaluations in Low-income and Middle-income Countries.

Out-of-pocket spending is increasingly recognized as an important barrier to accessing health care, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) where a large portion of health expenditure comes from out-of-pocket payments. Emerging universal healthcare policies prioritize reduction of poverty impact such as catastrophic and impoverishing healthcare expenditure. Poverty impact is therefore increasingly evaluated alongside and within economic evaluations to estimate the impact of specific health interventions on poverty. However, data collection for these metrics can be challenging in intervention-based contexts in LMICs because of study design and practical limitations. Using a set of case studies, this letter identifies methodological challenges in collecting patient cost data in LMIC contexts. These components are presented in a framework to encourage researchers to consider the implications of differing approaches in data collection and to report their approach in a standardized and transparent way.

The health system burden of chronic disease care: an estimation of provider costs of selected chronic diseases in Uganda.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the chronic disease services in Uganda: their level of utilisation, the total service costs and unit costs per visit. METHODS: Full financial and economic cost data were collected from 12 facilities in two districts, from the provider's perspective. A combination of ingredients-based and step-down allocation costing approaches was used. The diseases under study were diabetes, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), epilepsy and HIV infection. Data were collected through a review of facility records, direct observation and structured interviews with health workers. RESULTS: Provision of chronic care services was concentrated at higher-level facilities. Excluding drugs, the total costs for NCD care fell below 2% of total facility costs. Unit costs per visit varied widely, both across different levels of the health system, and between facilities of the same level. This variability was driven by differences in clinical and drug prescribing practices. CONCLUSION: Most patients reported directly to higher-level facilities, bypassing nearby peripheral facilities. NCD services in Uganda are underfunded particularly at peripheral facilities. There is a need to estimate the budget impact of improving NCD care and to standardise treatment guidelines.

The impact of HIV/SRH service integration on workload: analysis from the Integra Initiative in two African settings.

BACKGROUND: There is growing interest in integration of HIV and sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services as a way to improve the efficiency of human resources (HR) for health in low- and middle-income countries. Although this is supported by a wealth of evidence on the acceptability and clinical effectiveness of service integration, there is little evidence on whether staff in general health services can easily absorb HIV services. METHODS: We conducted a descriptive analysis of HR integration through task shifting/sharing and staff workload in the context of the Integra Initiative - a large-scale five-year evaluation of HIV/SRH integration. We describe the level, characteristics and changes in HR integration in the context of wider efforts to integrate HIV/SRH, and explore the impact of HR integration on staff workload. RESULTS: Improvements in the range of services provided by staff (HR integration) were more likely to be achieved in facilities which also improved other elements of integration. While there was no overall relationship between integration and workload at the facility level, HIV/SRH integration may be most influential on staff workload for provider-initiated HIV testing and counselling (PITC) and postnatal care (PNC) services, particularly where HIV care and treatment services are being supported with extra SRH/HIV staffing. Our findings therefore suggest that there may be potential for further efficiency gains through integration, but overall the pace of improvement is slow. CONCLUSIONS: This descriptive analysis explores the effect of HIV/SRH integration on staff workload through economies of scale and scope in high- and medium-HIV prevalence settings. We find some evidence to suggest that there is potential to improve productivity through integration, but, at the same time, significant challenges are being faced, with the pace of productivity gain slow. We recommend that efforts to implement integration are assessed in the broader context of HR planning to ensure that neither staff nor patients are negatively impacted by integration policy.

Economic implications of novel regimens for tuberculosis treatment in three high-burden countries: a modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: With numerous trials investigating novel drug combinations to treat tuberculosis, we aimed to evaluate the extent to which future improvements in tuberculosis treatment regimens could offset potential increases in drug costs. METHODS: In this modelling analysis, we used an ingredients-based approach to estimate prices at which novel regimens for rifampin-susceptible and rifampin-resistant tuberculosis treatment would be cost-neutral or cost-effective compared with standards of care in India, the Philippines, and South Africa. We modelled regimens meeting targets set in the WHO's 2023 Target Regimen Profiles (TRPs). Our decision-analytical model tracked cohorts of adults initiating rifampin-susceptible or rifampin-resistant tuberculosis treatment, simulating their health outcomes and costs accumulated during and following treatment under standard-of-care and novel regimen scenarios. Price thresholds included short-term cost-neutrality (considering only savings accrued during treatment), medium-term cost-neutrality (additionally considering savings from averted retreatments and secondary cases), and cost-effectiveness (incorporating willingness-to-pay for improved health outcomes). FINDINGS: Total medium-term costs per person treated using standard-of-care regimens were estimated at US$450 (95% uncertainty interval 310-630) in India, $560 (350-860) in the Philippines, and $730 (530-1090) in South Africa for rifampin-susceptible tuberculosis (current drug costs $46) and $2100 (1590-2810) in India, $2610 (2090-3280) in the Philippines, and $3790 (3090-4630) in South Africa for rifampin-resistant tuberculosis (current drug costs $432). A rifampin-susceptible tuberculosis regimen meeting the optimal targets defined in the TRPs could be cost-neutral in the short term at drug costs of $140 (90-210) per full course in India, $230 (130-380) in the Philippines, and $280 (180-460) in South Africa. For rifampin-resistant tuberculosis, short-term cost-neutral thresholds were higher with $930 (720-1230) in India, $1180 (980-1430) in the Philippines, and $1480 (1230-1780) in South Africa. Medium-term cost-neutral prices were approximately $50-100 higher than short-term cost-neutral prices for rifampin-susceptible tuberculosis and $250-550 higher for rifampin-resistant tuberculosis. Health system cost-neutral prices that excluded patient-borne costs were 45-70% lower (rifampin-susceptible regimens) and 15-50% lower (rifampin-resistant regimens) than the cost-neutral prices that included patient costs. Cost-effective prices were substantially higher. Shorter duration was the most important driver of medium-term savings with novel regimens, followed by ease of adherence. INTERPRETATION: Improved tuberculosis regimens, particularly shorter regimens or those that facilitate better adherence, could reduce overall costs, potentially offsetting higher prices. FUNDING: WHO.

Factors associated with tuberculosis treatment initiation among bacteriologically negative individuals evaluated for tuberculosis: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

Background: Globally, over one-third of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) disease diagnoses are made based on clinical criteria after a negative diagnostic test result. Understanding factors associated with clinicians' decisions to initiate treatment for individuals with negative test results is critical for predicting the potential impact of new diagnostics. Methods: We performed a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis using studies conducted between January/2010 and December/2022 (PROSPERO: CRD42022287613). We included trials or cohort studies that enrolled individuals evaluated for TB in routine settings. In these studies participants were evaluated based on clinical examination and routinely-used diagnostics, and were followed for ≥1 week after the initial test result. We used hierarchical Bayesian logistic regression to identify factors associated with treatment initiation following a negative result on an initial bacteriological test (e.g., sputum smear microscopy, Xpert MTB/RIF). Findings: Multiple factors were positively associated with treatment initiation: male sex [adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 1.61 (1.31-1.95)], history of prior TB [aOR 1.36 (1.06-1.73)], reported cough [aOR 4.62 (3.42-6.27)], reported night sweats [aOR 1.50 (1.21-1.90)], and having HIV infection but not on ART [aOR 1.68 (1.23-2.32)]. Treatment initiation was substantially less likely for individuals testing negative with Xpert [aOR 0.77 (0.62-0.96)] compared to smear microscopy and declined in more recent years. Interpretation: Multiple factors influenced decisions to initiate TB treatment despite negative test results. Clinicians were substantially less likely to treat in the absence of a positive test result when using more sensitive, PCR-based diagnostics.

Digital adherence technologies to improve tuberculosis treatment outcomes in China: a cluster-randomised superiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Drug-sensitive tuberculosis treatment requires 6 months of therapy, so adherence problems are common. Digital adherence technologies might improve tuberculosis treatment outcomes. We aimed to evaluate the effect of a daily reminder medication monitor, monthly review of adherence data by the health-care provider, and differentiated care for patients with adherence issues, on tuberculosis treatment adherence and outcomes. METHODS: We did a cluster-randomised superiority trial across four prefectures in China. 24 counties or districts (clusters) were randomly assigned (1:1) to intervention or control groups. We enrolled patients aged 18 years or older with GeneXpert-positive, rifampicin-sensitive pulmonary tuberculosis, who were receiving daily fixed-dose combination treatment. Patients in the intervention group received a medication monitor for daily drug-dosing reminders, monthly review of adherence data by health-care provider, and management of poor adherence; and patients in the control group received routine care (silent-mode monitor-measured adherence). Only the independent endpoints review committee who assessed endpoint data for some participants were masked to study group assignment. Patients were followed up (with sputum solid culture) at 12 and 18 months. The primary outcome was a composite of death, loss to follow-up, treatment failure, switch to multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment, or tuberculosis recurrence by 18 months from treatment start, analysed in the intention-to-treat population. Analysis accounted for study design with multiple imputation for the primary outcome. This trial is now complete and is registered with ISRCTN, 35812455. FINDINGS: Between Jan 26, 2017, and April 3, 2019, 15 257 patients were assessed for eligibility and 3074 were enrolled, 2686 (87%) of whom were included in the intention-to-treat population. 1909 (71%) of 2686 patients were male, 777 (29%) were female, and the median age was 44 years (IQR 29-58). By 18 months from treatment start, using multiple imputation for missing outcomes, 239 (16% [geometric mean of cluster-level proportion]) of 1388 patients in the control group and 224 (16%) of 1298 in the intervention group had a primary composite outcome event (289 [62%] of 463 events were loss to follow-up during treatment and 42 [9%] were tuberculosis recurrence). The intervention had no effect on risk of the primary composite outcome (adjusted risk ratio 1·01, 95% CI 0·73-1·40). INTERPRETATION: Our digital medication monitor intervention had no effect on unfavourable outcomes, which included loss to follow-up during treatment, tuberculosis recurrence, death, and treatment failure. There was a failure to change patient management following identification of treatment non-adherence at monthly reviews. A better understanding of adherence patterns and how they relate to poor outcomes, coupled with a more timely review of adherence data and improved implementation of differentiated care, may be required. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Costs and efficiency of integrating HIV/AIDS services with other health services: a systematic review of evidence and experience.

OBJECTIVES: To review the literature on the potential efficiency gains of integrating HIV services with other health services. DESIGN: Systematic literature review. Search of electronic databases, manual searching and snowball sampling. Studies that presented results on cost, efficiency or cost-effectiveness of integrated HIV services were included, focusing on low- and middle-income countries. Evidence was analysed and synthesised through a narrative approach and the quality of studies assessed. RESULTS: Of 666 citations retrieved, 46 were included (35 peer reviewed and 11 from grey literature). A range of integrated HIV services were found to be cost-effective compared with 'do-nothing' alternatives, including HIV services integrated into sexual and reproductive health services, integrated tuberculosis/HIV services and HIV services integrated into primary healthcare. The cost of integrated HIV counselling and testing is likely to be lower than that of stand-alone counselling and testing provision; however, evidence is limited on the comparative costs of other services, particularly HIV care and treatment. There is also little known about the most efficient model of integration, the efficiency gain from integration beyond the service level and any economic benefit to HIV service users. CONCLUSIONS: In the context of increasing political commitment and previous reviews suggesting a strong public health argument for the integration of HIV services, the authors found the evidence on efficiency broadly supports further efforts to integrate HIV services. However, key evidence gaps remain, and there is an urgent need for further research in this area.

Cost-effectiveness of short, oral treatment regimens for rifampicin resistant tuberculosis.

Current options for treating tuberculosis (TB) that is resistant to rifampicin (RR-TB) are few, and regimens are often long and poorly tolerated. Following recent evidence from the TB-PRACTECAL trial countries are considering programmatic uptake of 6-month, all-oral treatment regimens. We used a Markov model to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of three regimens containing bedaquiline, pretomanid and linezolid (BPaL) with and without moxifloxacin (BPaLM) or clofazimine (BPaLC) compared with the current mix of long and short standard of care (SOC) regimens to treat RR-TB from the provider perspective in India, Georgia, Philippines, and South Africa. We estimated total costs (2019 USD) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over a 20-year time horizon. Costs and DALYs were discounted at 3% in the base case. Parameter uncertainty was tested with univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. We found that all three regimens would improve health outcomes and reduce costs compared with the current programmatic mix of long and short SOC regimens in all four countries. BPaL was the most cost-saving regimen in all countries, saving $112-$1,173 per person. BPaLM was the preferred regimen at a willingness to pay per DALY of 0.5 GDP per capita in all settings. Our findings indicate BPaL-based regimens are likely to be cost-saving and more effective than the current standard of care in a range of settings. Countries should consider programmatic uptake of BPaL-based regimens.

Exploring equity in health and poverty impacts of control measures for SARS-CoV-2 in six countries.

BACKGROUND: Policy makers need to be rapidly informed about the potential equity consequences of different COVID-19 strategies, alongside their broader health and economic impacts. While there are complex models to inform both potential health and macro-economic impact, there are few tools available to rapidly assess potential equity impacts of interventions. METHODS: We created an economic model to simulate the impact of lockdown measures in Pakistan, Georgia, Chile, UK, the Philippines and South Africa. We consider impact of lockdown in terms of ability to socially distance, and income loss during lockdown, and tested the impact of assumptions on social protection coverage in a scenario analysis. RESULTS: In all examined countries, socioeconomic status (SES) quintiles 1-3 were disproportionately more likely to experience income loss (70% of people) and inability to socially distance (68% of people) than higher SES quintiles. Improving social protection increased the percentage of the workforce able to socially distance from 48% (33%-60%) to 66% (44%-71%). We estimate the cost of this social protection would be equivalent to an average of 0.6% gross domestic product (0.1% Pakistan-1.1% Chile). CONCLUSIONS: We illustrate the potential for using publicly available data to rapidly assess the equity implications of social protection and non-pharmaceutical intervention policy. Social protection is likely to mitigate inequitable health and economic impacts of lockdown. Although social protection is usually targeted to the poorest, middle quintiles will likely also need support as they are most likely to suffer income losses and are disproportionately more exposed.

Lifetime burden of disease due to incident tuberculosis: a global reappraisal including post-tuberculosis sequelae.

BACKGROUND: Many individuals who survive tuberculosis disease face ongoing disability and elevated mortality risks. However, the impact of post-tuberculosis sequelae is generally omitted from policy analyses and disease burden estimates. We therefore estimated the global burden of tuberculosis, inclusive of post-tuberculosis morbidity and mortality. METHODS: We constructed a hypothetical cohort of individuals developing tuberculosis in 2019, including pulmonary and extrapulmonary disease. We simulated lifetime health outcomes for this cohort, stratified by country, age, sex, HIV status, and treatment status. We used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) to summarise fatal and non-fatal health losses attributable to tuberculosis, during the disease episode and afterwards. We estimated post-tuberculosis mortality and morbidity based on the decreased lung function caused by pulmonary tuberculosis disease. FINDINGS: Globally, we estimated 122 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 98-151) million DALYs due to incident tuberculosis disease in 2019, with 58 (38-83) million DALYs attributed to post-tuberculosis sequelae, representing 47% (95% UI 37-57) of the total burden estimate. The increase in burden from post-tuberculosis varied substantially across countries and regions, driven largely by differences in estimated case fatality for the disease episode. We estimated 12·1 DALYs (95% UI 10·0-14·9) per incident tuberculosis case, of which 6·3 DALYs (5·6-7·0) were from the disease episode and 5·8 DALYs (3·8-8·3) were from post-tuberculosis. Per-case post-tuberculosis burden estimates were greater for younger individuals, and in countries with high incidence rates. The burden of post-tuberculosis was spread over the remaining lifetime of tuberculosis survivors, with almost a third of total DALYs (28%, 95% UI 23-34) accruing 15 or more years after incident tuberculosis. INTERPRETATION: Post-tuberculosis sequelae add substantially to the overall disease burden caused by tuberculosis. This hitherto unquantified burden has been omitted from most previous policy analyses. Future policy analyses and burden estimates should take better account of post-tuberculosis, to avoid the potential misallocation of funding, political attention, and research effort resulting from continued neglect of this issue. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.