The cost-effectiveness of procalcitonin for guiding antibiotic prescribing in individuals hospitalized with COVID-19: part of the PEACH study.

BACKGROUND: Many hospitals introduced procalcitonin (PCT) testing to help diagnose bacterial coinfection in individuals with COVID-19, and guide antibiotic decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. OBJECTIVES: Evaluating cost-effectiveness of using PCT to guide antibiotic decisions in individuals hospitalized with COVID-19, as part of a wider research programme. METHODS: Retrospective individual-level data on patients hospitalized with COVID-19 were collected from 11 NHS acute hospital Trusts and Health Boards from England and Wales, which varied in their use of baseline PCT testing during the first COVID-19 pandemic wave. A matched analysis (part of a wider analysis reported elsewhere) created groups of patients whose PCT was/was not tested at baseline. A model was created with combined decision tree/Markov phases, parameterized with quality-of-life/unit cost estimates from the literature, and used to estimate costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Cost-effectiveness was judged at a £20 000/QALY threshold. Uncertainty was characterized using bootstrapping. RESULTS: People who had baseline PCT testing had shorter general ward/ICU stays and spent less time on antibiotics, though with overlap between the groups' 95% CIs. Those with baseline PCT testing accrued more QALYs (8.76 versus 8.62) and lower costs (£9830 versus £10 700). The point estimate was baseline PCT testing being dominant over no baseline testing, though with uncertainty: the probability of cost-effectiveness was 0.579 with a 1 year horizon and 0.872 with a lifetime horizon. CONCLUSIONS: Using PCT to guide antibiotic therapy in individuals hospitalized with COVID-19 is more likely to be cost-effective than not, albeit with uncertainty.

Treatment of Hidradenitis Suppurativa Evaluation Study (THESEUS): a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) is a chronic, painful disease affecting flexures and other skin regions, producing nodules, abscesses and skin tunnels. Laser treatment targeting hair follicles and deroofing of skin tunnels are standard HS interventions in some countries but are rarely offered in the UK. OBJECTIVES: To describe current UK HS management pathways and influencing factors to inform the design of future randomized controlled trials (RCTs). METHODS: THESEUS was a nonrandomized 12-month prospective cohort study set in 10 UK hospitals offering five interventions: oral doxycycline 200 mg daily; oral clindamycin and rifampicin both 300 mg twice daily for 10 weeks, extended for longer in some cases; laser treatment targeting hair follicles; deroofing; and conventional surgery. The primary outcome was the combination of clinician-assessed eligibility and participant hypothetical willingness to receive each intervention. The secondary outcomes were the proportion of participants selecting each intervention as their final treatment option; the proportion who switch treatments; treatment fidelity; and attrition rates. THESEUS was prospectively registered on the ISRCTN registry: ISRCTN69985145. RESULTS: The recruitment target of 150 participants was met after 18 months, in July 2021, with two pauses due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Baseline demographics reflected the HS secondary care population: average age 36 years, 81% female, 20% non-White, 64% current or ex-smokers, 86% body mass index ≥ 25, 68% with moderate disease, 19% with severe disease and 13% with mild disease. Laser was the intervention with the highest proportion (69%) of participants eligible and willing to receive treatment, then deroofing (58%), conventional surgery (54%), clindamycin and rifampicin (44%), and doxycycline (37%). Laser was ranked first choice by the greatest proportion of participants (41%). Attrition rates were 11% and 17% after 3 and 6 months, respectively. Concordance with doxycycline was 52% after 3 months due to lack of efficacy, participant choice and adverse effects. Delays with procedural interventions were common, with only 43% and 26% of participants starting laser and deroofing, respectively, after 3 months. Uptake of conventional surgery was too small to characterize the intervention. Switching treatment was uncommon and there were no serious adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: THESEUS has established laser treatment and deroofing for HS in the UK and demonstrated their popularity with patients and clinicians for future RCTs.

C-Reactive Protein Testing to Guide Antibiotic Prescribing for COPD Exacerbations.

BACKGROUND: Point-of-care testing of C-reactive protein (CRP) may be a way to reduce unnecessary use of antibiotics without harming patients who have acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). METHODS: We performed a multicenter, open-label, randomized, controlled trial involving patients with a diagnosis of COPD in their primary care clinical record who consulted a clinician at 1 of 86 general medical practices in England and Wales for an acute exacerbation of COPD. The patients were assigned to receive usual care guided by CRP point-of-care testing (CRP-guided group) or usual care alone (usual-care group). The primary outcomes were patient-reported use of antibiotics for acute exacerbations of COPD within 4 weeks after randomization (to show superiority) and COPD-related health status at 2 weeks after randomization, as measured by the Clinical COPD Questionnaire, a 10-item scale with scores ranging from 0 (very good COPD health status) to 6 (extremely poor COPD health status) (to show noninferiority). RESULTS: A total of 653 patients underwent randomization. Fewer patients in the CRP-guided group reported antibiotic use than in the usual-care group (57.0% vs. 77.4%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.20 to 0.47). The adjusted mean difference in the total score on the Clinical COPD Questionnaire at 2 weeks was -0.19 points (two-sided 90% CI, -0.33 to -0.05) in favor of the CRP-guided group. The antibiotic prescribing decisions made by clinicians at the initial consultation were ascertained for all but 1 patient, and antibiotic prescriptions issued over the first 4 weeks of follow-up were ascertained for 96.9% of the patients. A lower percentage of patients in the CRP-guided group than in the usual-care group received an antibiotic prescription at the initial consultation (47.7% vs. 69.7%, for a difference of 22.0 percentage points; adjusted odds ratio, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.21 to 0.45) and during the first 4 weeks of follow-up (59.1% vs. 79.7%, for a difference of 20.6 percentage points; adjusted odds ratio, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.20 to 0.46). Two patients in the usual-care group died within 4 weeks after randomization from causes considered by the investigators to be unrelated to trial participation. CONCLUSIONS: CRP-guided prescribing of antibiotics for exacerbations of COPD in primary care clinics resulted in a lower percentage of patients who reported antibiotic use and who received antibiotic prescriptions from clinicians, with no evidence of harm. (Funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Program; PACE Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN24346473.).

Impact of introducing procalcitonin testing on antibiotic usage in acute NHS hospitals during the first wave of COVID-19 in the UK: a controlled interrupted time series analysis of organization-level data.

BACKGROUND: Blood biomarkers have the potential to help identify COVID-19 patients with bacterial coinfection in whom antibiotics are indicated. During the COVID-19 pandemic, procalcitonin testing was widely introduced at hospitals in the UK to guide antibiotic prescribing. We have determined the impact of this on hospital-level antibiotic consumption. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, controlled interrupted time series analysis of organization-level data describing antibiotic dispensing, hospital activity and procalcitonin testing for acute hospitals/hospital trusts in England and Wales during the first wave of COVID-19 (24 February to 5 July 2020). RESULTS: In the main analysis of 105 hospitals in England, introduction of procalcitonin testing in emergency departments/acute medical admission units was associated with a statistically significant decrease in total antibiotic use of -1.08 (95% CI: -1.81 to -0.36) DDDs of antibiotic per admission per week per trust. This effect was then lost at a rate of 0.05 (95% CI: 0.02-0.08) DDDs per admission per week. Similar results were found specifically for first-line antibiotics for community-acquired pneumonia and for COVID-19 admissions rather than all admissions. Introduction of procalcitonin in the ICU setting was not associated with any significant change in antibiotic use. CONCLUSIONS: At hospitals where procalcitonin testing was introduced in emergency departments/acute medical units this was associated with an initial, but unsustained, reduction in antibiotic use. Further research should establish the patient-level impact of procalcitonin testing in this population and understand its potential for clinical effectiveness.

Short-term risk prediction after major lower limb amputation: PERCEIVE study.

BACKGROUND: The accuracy with which healthcare professionals (HCPs) and risk prediction tools predict outcomes after major lower limb amputation (MLLA) is uncertain. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of predicting short-term (30 days after MLLA) mortality, morbidity, and revisional surgery. METHODS: The PERCEIVE (PrEdiction of Risk and Communication of outcomE following major lower limb amputation: a collaboratIVE) study was launched on 1 October 2020. It was an international multicentre study, including adults undergoing MLLA for complications of peripheral arterial disease and/or diabetes. Preoperative predictions of 30-day mortality, morbidity, and MLLA revision by surgeons and anaesthetists were recorded. Probabilities from relevant risk prediction tools were calculated. Evaluation of accuracy included measures of discrimination, calibration, and overall performance. RESULTS: Some 537 patients were included. HCPs had acceptable discrimination in predicting mortality (931 predictions; C-statistic 0.758) and MLLA revision (565 predictions; C-statistic 0.756), but were poor at predicting morbidity (980 predictions; C-statistic 0.616). They overpredicted the risk of all outcomes. All except three risk prediction tools had worse discrimination than HCPs for predicting mortality (C-statistics 0.789, 0.774, and 0.773); two of these significantly overestimated the risk compared with HCPs. SORT version 2 (the only tool incorporating HCP predictions) demonstrated better calibration and overall performance (Brier score 0.082) than HCPs. Tools predicting morbidity and MLLA revision had poor discrimination (C-statistics 0.520 and 0.679). CONCLUSION: Clinicians predicted mortality and MLLA revision well, but predicted morbidity poorly. They overestimated the risk of mortality, morbidity, and MLLA revision. Most short-term risk prediction tools had poorer discrimination or calibration than HCPs. The best method of predicting mortality was a statistical tool that incorporated HCP estimation.

Mid-Regional Pro-Adrenomedullin in Combination With Pediatric Early Warning Scores for Risk Stratification of Febrile Children Presenting to the Emergency Department: Secondary Analysis of a Nonprespecified United Kingdom Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: Current sepsis guidelines do not provide good risk stratification of subgroups in whom prompt IV antibiotics and fluid resuscitation might of benefit. We evaluated the utility of mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) in identification of patient subgroups at risk of requiring PICU or high-dependency unit (HDU) admission or fluid resuscitation. DESIGN: Secondary, nonprespecified analysis of prospectively collected dataset. SETTING: Pediatric Emergency Department in a United Kingdom tertiary center. PATIENTS: Children less than 16 years old presenting with fever and clinical indication for venous blood sampling ( n = 1,183). INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Primary outcome measures were PICU/HDU admission or administration of fluid resuscitation, with a secondary outcome of definite or probable bacterial infection. Biomarkers were measured on stored plasma samples and children phenotyped into bacterial and viral groups using a previously published algorithm. Of the 1,183 cases, 146 children (12.3%) required fluids, 48 (4.1%) were admitted to the PICU/HDU, and 244 (20.6%) had definite or probable bacterial infection. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) was used to assess performance. MR-proADM better predicted fluid resuscitation (AUC, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.67-0.78), than both procalcitonin (AUC, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.59-0.71) and Pediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS: AUC, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.56-0.67). PEWS alone showed good accuracy for PICU/HDU admission 0.83 (0.78-0.89). Patient subgroups with high MR-proADM (≥ 0.7 nmol/L) and high procalcitonin (≥ 0.5 ng/mL) had increased association with PICU/HDU admission, fluid resuscitation, and bacterial infection compared with subgroups with low MR-proADM (< 0.7 nmol/L). For children with procalcitonin less than 0.5 ng/mL, high MR-proADM improved stratification for fluid resuscitation only. CONCLUSIONS: High MR-proADM and high procalcitonin were associated with increased likelihood of subsequent disease progression. Incorporating MR-proADM into clinical risk stratification may be useful in clinician decision-making regarding initiation of IV antibiotics, fluid resuscitation, and escalation to PICU/HDU admission.

Use of perioperative prophylactic antibiotics following excision of ulcerated skin lesions in the UK: a national, multispeciality survey of clinicians.

Skin cancer is the most common malignancy in the UK, and up to a third of lesions are ulcerated at the time of excision. Ulceration has been shown to increase the risk of developing surgical site infection following excision, with some studies finding infection rates of 33%. However, no specific guidelines for the use of antibiotic prophylaxis in such cases exist. We surveyed 129 clinicians (covering Dermatology, Plastic Surgery, Ear, Nose and Throat Surgery, and Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery) who all excise skin lesions on a regular basis. There was significant variability in their practice with regard to antibiotic prophylaxis, with 9% always prescribing them and 19% never prescribing them. Variation exists both among and between specialities. This variation increases the risk of antimicrobial resistance and shows a paucity of good clinical evidence, indicating that a well-designed clinical trial is needed to guide future practice.

Development, implementation and evaluation of an evidence-based paediatric early warning system improvement programme: the PUMA mixed methods study.

BACKGROUND: Paediatric mortality rates in the United Kingdom are amongst the highest in Europe. Clinically missed deterioration is a contributory factor. Evidence to support any single intervention to address this problem is limited, but a cumulative body of research highlights the need for a systems approach. METHODS: An evidence-based, theoretically informed, paediatric early warning system improvement programme (PUMA Programme) was developed and implemented in two general hospitals (no onsite Paediatric Intensive Care Unit) and two tertiary hospitals (with onsite Paediatric Intensive Care Unit) in the United Kingdom. Designed to harness local expertise to implement contextually appropriate improvement initiatives, the PUMA Programme includes a propositional model of a paediatric early warning system, system assessment tools, guidance to support improvement initiatives and structured facilitation and support. Each hospital was evaluated using interrupted time series and qualitative case studies. The primary quantitative outcome was a composite metric (adverse events), representing the number of children monthly that experienced one of the following: mortality, cardiac arrest, respiratory arrest, unplanned admission to Paediatric Intensive Care Unit, or unplanned admission to Higher Dependency Unit. System changes were assessed qualitatively through observations of clinical practice and interviews with staff and parents. A qualitative evaluation of implementation processes was undertaken. RESULTS: All sites assessed their paediatric early warning systems and identified areas for improvement. All made contextually appropriate system changes, despite implementation challenges. There was a decline in the adverse event rate trend in three sites; in one site where system wide changes were organisationally supported, the decline was significant (ß = -0.09 (95% CI: - 0.15, - 0.05); p = < 0.001). Changes in trends coincided with implementation of site-specific changes. CONCLUSIONS: System level change to improve paediatric early warning systems can bring about positive impacts on clinical outcomes, but in paediatric practice, where the patient population is smaller and clinical outcomes event rates are low, alternative outcome measures are required to support research and quality improvement beyond large specialist centres, and methodological work on rare events is indicated. With investment in the development of alternative outcome measures and methodologies, programmes like PUMA could improve mortality and morbidity in paediatrics and other patient populations.

A Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis of Risk Prediction Tools Used to Estimate Mortality, Morbidity, and Other Outcomes Following Major Lower Limb Amputation.

OBJECTIVE: The decision to undertake a major lower limb amputation can be complex. This review evaluates the performance of risk prediction tools in estimating mortality, morbidity, and other outcomes following amputation. METHODS: A systematic review was performed following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched to identify studies reporting on risk prediction tools that predict outcomes following amputation. Outcome measures included the accuracy of the risk tool in predicting a range of post-operative complications, including mortality (both short and long term), peri-operative morbidity, need for re-amputation, and ambulation success. A narrative synthesis was performed in accordance with the Guidance on the Conduct of Narrative Synthesis In Systematic Reviews. RESULTS: The search identified 518 database records. Twelve observational studies, evaluating 13 risk prediction tools in a total cohort of 61 099 amputations, were included. One study performed external validation of an existing risk prediction tool, while all other studies developed novel tools or modified pre-existing generic calculators. Two studies conducted external validation of the novel/modified tools. Nine tools provided risk estimations for mortality, two tools provided predictions for post-operative morbidity, two for likelihood of ambulation, and one for re-amputation to the same or higher level. Most mortality prediction tools demonstrated acceptable discrimination performance with C statistic values ranging from 0.65 to 0.81. Tools estimating the risk of post-operative complications (0.65 - 0.74) and necessity for re-amputation (0.72) also performed acceptably. The Blatchford Allman Russell tool demonstrated outstanding discrimination for predicting functional mobility outcomes post-amputation (0.94). Overall, most studies were at high risk of bias with poor external validity. CONCLUSION: This review identified several risk prediction tools that demonstrate acceptable to outstanding discrimination for objectively predicting an array of important post-operative outcomes. However, the methodological quality of some studies was poor, external validation studies are generally lacking, and there are no tools predicting other important outcomes, especially quality of life.

Prognostic Risk Modelling for Patients Undergoing Major Lower Limb Amputation: An Analysis of the UK National Vascular Registry.

OBJECTIVE: Major lower limb amputation is the highest risk lower limb procedure in vascular surgery. Despite this, few high quality studies have examined factors contributing to mortality. The aim was to identify independent risk factors for peri-operative morbidity and mortality and develop reliable models for estimating risk. METHODS: All patients undergoing lower limb amputation above the ankle entered into the UK National Vascular Registry (January 2014-December 2016) were included. Missing data were handled using multiple imputation. Models were developed to evaluate independent risk factors for mortality (the primary outcome) and morbidity using logistic regression, minimising the Bayesian information criterion to balance complexity and model fit. Ethical approval for the study was granted (Wales REC 3 ref:16/WA/0353). RESULTS: All 9549 above ankle joint amputations in the registry were included. Overall, 865 patients (9.1%) died before leaving hospital. Independent factors associated with mortality were emergency admission, bilateral operation, age, American Society of Anesthesiologists' grade, abnormal electrocardiogram, and increased white cell count or creatinine (p < .01 for all). Independent factors reducing mortality were transtibial operation, increased albumin or patient weight, and previous ipsilateral revascularisation procedures (p < .01 for all). A risk model incorporating these factors had good discrimination (C-statistic 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.77-0.80) and excellent calibration. Morbidity rates were high, with 6.6%, 9.7%, and 4.3% of patients suffering cardiac, respiratory, and renal complications, respectively. The risk model was also predictive of morbidity outcomes (C-statistics 0.74, 0.69, and 0.74, respectively). CONCLUSION: Morbidity and mortality after lower limb amputation are high in the UK. Some potentially modifiable factors for quality improvement initiatives have been identified and accurate predictive models that could assist patient counselling and decision making have been developed.

Development of Core Outcome Sets for People Undergoing Major Lower Limb Amputation for Complications of Peripheral Vascular Disease.

OBJECTIVE: Every year, thousands of patients with peripheral vascular disease undergo major lower limb amputation. Despite this, evidence for optimal management is weak. Core outcome sets capture consensus on the most important outcomes for a patient group to improve the consistency and quality of research. The aim was to define short and medium term core outcome sets for studies involving patients undergoing major lower limb amputation. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature and focus groups involving patients, carers, and healthcare professionals were used to derive a list of potential outcomes. Findings informed a three round online Delphi consensus process, where outcomes were rated for both short and medium term studies. The results of the Delphi process were discussed at a face to face consensus meeting, and recommendations were made for each core outcome set. RESULTS: A systematic review revealed 45 themes to carry forward to the consensus survey. These were supplemented by a further five from focus groups. The consensus survey received responses from 123 participants in round one, and 91 individuals completed all three rounds. In the final round, nine outcomes were rated as "core" for short term studies and a further nine for medium term studies. Wound infection and healing were rated as "core" for both short and medium term studies. Outcomes related to mortality, quality of life, communication, and additional healthcare needs were also rated as "core" for short term studies. In medium term studies, outcomes related to quality of life, mobility, and social integration/independence were rated as "core". The face to face stakeholder meeting ratified inclusion of all outcomes from the Delphi and suggested that deterioration of the other leg and psychological morbidity should also be reported for both short and medium term studies. CONCLUSION: Consensus was established on 11 core outcomes for short and medium term studies. It is recommended that all future studies involving patients undergoing major lower limb amputation should report these outcomes.

Oral steroids for resolution of otitis media with effusion in children (OSTRICH): a double-blinded, placebo-controlled randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Children with persistent hearing loss due to otitis media with effusion are commonly managed by surgical intervention. A safe, cheap, and effective medical treatment would enhance treatment options. Underpowered, poor-quality trials have found short-term benefit from oral steroids. We aimed to investigate whether a short course of oral steroids would achieve acceptable hearing in children with persistent otitis media with effusion and hearing loss. METHODS: In this individually randomised, parallel, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial we recruited children aged 2-8 years with symptoms attributable to otitis media with effusion for at least 3 months and with confirmed bilateral hearing loss. Participants were recruited from 20 ear, nose, and throat (ENT), paediatric audiology, and audiovestibular medicine outpatient departments in England and Wales. Participants were randomly allocated (1:1) to sequentially numbered identical prednisolone (oral steroid) or placebo packs by use of computer-generated random permuted block sizes stratified by site and child's age. The primary outcome was audiometry-confirmed acceptable hearing at 5 weeks. All analyses were by intention to treat. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN Registry, number ISRCTN49798431. FINDINGS: Between March 20, 2014, and April 5, 2016, 1018 children were screened, of whom 389 were randomised. 200 were assigned to receive oral steroids and 189 to receive placebo. Hearing at 5 weeks was assessed in 183 children in the oral steroid group and in 180 in the placebo group. Acceptable hearing was observed in 73 (40%) children in the oral steroid group and in 59 (33%) in the placebo group (absolute difference 7% [95% CI -3 to 17], number needed to treat 14; adjusted odds ratio 1·36 [95% CI 0·88-2·11]; p=0·16). There was no evidence of any significant differences in adverse events or quality-of-life measures between the groups. INTERPRETATION: Otitis media with effusion in children with documented hearing loss and attributable symptoms for at least 3 months has a high rate of spontaneous resolution. A short course of oral prednisolone is not an effective treatment for most children aged 2-8 years with persistent otitis media with effusion, but is well tolerated. One in 14 children might achieve improved hearing but not quality of life. Discussions about watchful waiting and other interventions will be supported by this evidence. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme.

A prospective, mixed-methods, before and after study to identify the evidence base for the core components of an effective Paediatric Early Warning System and the development of an implementation package containing those core recommendations for use in the UK: Paediatric early warning system - utilisation and mortality avoidance- the PUMA study protocol.

BACKGROUND: In hospital, staff need to routinely monitor patients to identify those who are seriously ill, so that they receive timely treatment to improve their condition. A Paediatric Early Warning System is a multi-faceted socio-technical system to detect deterioration in children, which may or may not include a track and trigger tool. It functions to monitor, detect and prompt an urgent response to signs of deterioration, with the aim of preventing morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study is to develop an evidence-based improvement programme to optimise the effectiveness of Paediatric Early Warning Systems in different inpatient contexts, and to evaluate the feasibility and potential effectiveness of the programme in predicting deterioration and triggering timely interventions. METHODS: This study will be conducted in two district and two specialist children's hospitals. It deploys an Interrupted Time Series (ITS) design in conjunction with ethnographic cases studies with embedded process evaluation. Informed by Translational Mobilisation Theory and Normalisation Process Theory, the study is underpinned by a functions based approach to improvement. Workstream (1) will develop an evidence-based improvement programme to optimise Paediatric Early Warning System based on systematic reviews. Workstream (2) consists of observation and recording outcomes in current practice in the four sites, implementation of the improvement programme and concurrent process evaluation, and evaluation of the impact of the programme. Outcomes will be mortality and critical events, unplanned admission to Paediatric Intensive Care (PICU) or Paediatric High Dependency Unit (PHDU), cardiac arrest, respiratory arrest, medical emergencies requiring immediate assistance, reviews by PICU staff, and critical deterioration, with qualitative evidence of the impact of the intervention on Paediatric Early Warning System and learning from the implementation process. DISCUSSION: This paper presents the background, rationale and design for this mixed methods study. This will be the most comprehensive study of Paediatric Early Warning Systems and the first to deploy a functions-based approach to improvement in the UK with the aim to improve paediatric patient safety and reduce mortality. Our findings will inform recommendations about the safety processes for every hospital treating paediatric in-patients across the NHS. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Sponsor: Cardiff University, 30-36 Newport Road, Cardiff, CF24 0DE Sponsor ref.: SPON1362-14. Funder: National Institute for Health Research, Health Services & Delivery Research Programme (NIHR HS&DR) Funder reference: 12/178/17. Research Ethics Committee reference: 15/SW/0084 [13/04/2015]. PROSPERO reference: CRD42015015326 [23/01/2015]. ISRCTN: 94228292 https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN94228292 [date of application 13/05/2015; date of registration: 18/08/2015]. Prospective registration prior to data collection and participant consent commencing in September 2014.

Immediate chest X-ray for patients at risk of lung cancer presenting in primary care: randomised controlled feasibility trial.

BACKGROUND: Achieving earlier stage diagnosis is one option for improving lung cancer outcomes in the United Kingdom. Patients with lung cancer typically present with symptoms to general practitioners several times before referral or investigation. METHODS: We undertook a mixed methods feasibility individually randomised controlled trial (the ELCID trial) to assess the feasibility and inform the design of a definitive, fully powered, UK-wide, Phase III trial of lowering the threshold for urgent investigation of suspected lung cancer. Patients over 60, with a smoking history, presenting with new chest symptoms to primary care, were eligible to be randomised to intervention (urgent chest X-ray) or usual care. RESULTS: The trial design and materials were acceptable to GPs and patients. We randomised 255 patients from 22 practices, although the proportion of eligible patients who participated was lower than expected. Survey responses (89%), and the fidelity of the intervention (82% patients X-rayed within 3 weeks) were good. There was slightly higher anxiety and depression in the control arm in participants aged >75. Three patients (1.2%) were diagnosed with lung cancer. CONCLUSIONS: We have demonstrated the feasibility of individually randomising patients at higher risk of lung cancer, to a trial offering urgent investigation or usual care.

The Diagnosis of Urinary Tract Infection in Young Children (DUTY) Study Clinical Rule: Economic Evaluation.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a two-step clinical rule using symptoms, signs and dipstick testing to guide the diagnosis and antibiotic treatment of urinary tract infection (UTI) in acutely unwell young children presenting to primary care. METHODS: Decision analytic model synthesising data from a multicentre, prospective cohort study (DUTY) and the wider literature to estimate the short-term and lifetime costs and healthcare outcomes (symptomatic days, recurrent UTI, quality adjusted life years) of eight diagnostic strategies. We compared GP clinical judgement with three strategies based on a 'coefficient score' combining seven symptoms and signs independently associated with UTI and four strategies based on weighted scores according to the presence/absence of five symptoms and signs. We compared dipstick testing versus laboratory culture in children at intermediate risk of UTI. RESULTS: Sampling, culture and antibiotic costs were lowest in high-specificity DUTY strategies (£1.22 and £1.08) compared to clinical judgement (£1.99). These strategies also approximately halved urine sampling (4.8% versus 9.1% in clinical judgement) without reducing sensitivity (58.2% versus 56.4%). Outcomes were very similar across all diagnostic strategies. High-specificity DUTY strategies were more cost-effective than clinical judgement in the short- (iNMB = £0.78 and £0.84) and long-term (iNMB =£2.31 and £2.50). Dipstick tests had poorer cost-effectiveness than laboratory culture in children at intermediate risk of UTI (iNMB = £-1.41). CONCLUSIONS: Compared to GPs' clinical judgement, high specificity clinical rules from the DUTY study could substantially reduce urine sampling, achieving lower costs and equivalent patient outcomes. Dipstick testing children for UTI is not cost-effective.

Oral and Topical Antibiotics for Clinically Infected Eczema in Children: A Pragmatic Randomized Controlled Trial in Ambulatory Care.

PURPOSE: Eczema may flare because of bacterial infection, but evidence supporting antibiotic treatment is of low quality. We aimed to determine the effect of oral and topical antibiotics in addition to topical emollient and corticosteroids in children with clinically infected eczema. METHODS: We employed a 3-arm, blinded, randomized controlled trial in UK ambulatory care. Children with clinical, non-severely infected eczema were randomized to receive oral and topical placebos (control), oral antibiotic (flucloxacillin) and topical placebo, or topical antibiotic (fusidic acid) and oral placebo, for 1 week. We compared Patient Oriented Eczema Measure (POEM) scores at 2 weeks using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). RESULTS: We randomized 113 children (40 to control, 36 to oral antibiotic, and 37 to topical antibiotic). Mean (SD) baseline Patient Oriented Eczema Measure scores were 13.4 (5.1) for the control group, 14.6 (5.3) for the oral antibiotic group, and 16.9 (5.5) for the topical antibiotic group. At baseline, 104 children (93%) had 1 or more of the following findings: weeping, crusting, pustules, or painful skin. Mean (SD) POEM scores at 2 weeks were 6.2 (6.0) for control, 8.3 (7.3) for the oral antibiotic group, and 9.3 (6.2) for the topical antibiotic group. Controlling for baseline POEM score, neither oral nor topical antibiotics produced a significant difference in mean (95% CI) POEM scores (1.5 [-1.4 to 4.4] and 1.5 [-1.6 to 4.5] respectively). There were no significant differences in adverse effects and no serious adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: We found rapid resolution in response to topical steroid and emollient treatment and ruled out a clinically meaningful benefit from the addition of either oral or topical antibiotics. Children seen in ambulatory care with mild clinically infected eczema do not need treatment with antibiotics.

Clinicians' interpretations of point of care urine culture versus laboratory culture results: analysis from the four-country POETIC trial of diagnosis of uncomplicated urinary tract infection in primary care.

Background: Urine culture at the point of care minimises delay between obtaining the sample and agar inoculation in a microbiology laboratory, and quantification and sensitivity results can be available more rapidly in primary care. Objective: To identify the degree to which clinicians' interpretations of a point-of-care-test (POCT) urine culture (Flexicult™ SSI-Urinary Kit) agrees with laboratory culture in women presenting to primary care with symptoms of uncomplicated urinary tract infections (UTI). Methods: Primary care clinicians used the Flexicult™-POCT, recorded their findings and took a photograph of the result, which was interpreted by microbiology laboratory technicians. Urine samples were additionally processed in routine care laboratories. Cross tabulations were used to identify important differences in organism identification, quantification and antibiotic susceptibility between these three sources of data. The influence of various laboratory definitions for UTI on culture were assessed. Results: Primary care clinicians identified 202/289 urine samples (69.9%) as positive for UTI using the Flexicult™-POCT, whereas laboratory culture identified 94-190 (32.5-65.7%) as positive, depending on definition thresholds. 82.9% of samples identified positive for E. coli on laboratory culture were also considered positive for E. coli using the Flexicult™ -POCT, and susceptibilities were reasonably concordant. There were major discrepancies between laboratory staff interpretation of Flexicult™ photographs, clinicians' interpretation of the Flexicult™ test, and laboratory culture results. Conclusion: Flexicult™-POCT overestimated the positivity rate of urine samples for UTI when laboratory culture was used as the reference standard. However, it is unclear whether point-of-care or laboratory based urine culture provides the most valid diagnostic information.

Improving the Diagnosis and Treatment of Urinary Tract Infection in Young Children in Primary Care: Results from the DUTY Prospective Diagnostic Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: Up to 50% of urinary tract infections (UTIs) in young children are missed in primary care. Urine culture is essential for diagnosis, but urine collection is often difficult. Our aim was to derive and internally validate a 2-step clinical rule using (1) symptoms and signs to select children for urine collection; and (2) symptoms, signs, and dipstick testing to guide antibiotic treatment. METHODS: We recruited acutely unwell children aged under 5 years from 233 primary care sites across England and Wales. Index tests were parent-reported symptoms, clinician-reported signs, urine dipstick results, and clinician opinion of UTI likelihood (clinical diagnosis before dipstick and culture). The reference standard was microbiologically confirmed UTI cultured from a clean-catch urine sample. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve of coefficient-based (graded severity) and points-based (dichotomized) symptom/sign logistic regression models, and we then internally validated the AUROC using bootstrapping. RESULTS: Three thousand thirty-six children provided urine samples, and culture results were available for 2,740 (90%). Of these results, 60 (2.2%) were positive: the clinical diagnosis was 46.6% sensitive, with an AUROC of 0.77. Previous UTI, increasing pain/crying on passing urine, increasingly smelly urine, absence of severe cough, increasing clinician impression of severe illness, abdominal tenderness on examination, and normal findings on ear examination were associated with UTI. The validated coefficient- and points-based model AUROCs were 0.87 and 0.86, respectively, increasing to 0.90 and 0.90, respectively, by adding dipstick nitrites, leukocytes, and blood. CONCLUSIONS: A clinical rule based on symptoms and signs is superior to clinician diagnosis and performs well for identifying young children for noninvasive urine sampling. Dipstick results add further diagnostic value for empiric antibiotic treatment.