Detecting water quality patterns in New Hampshire's estuaries using National Coastal Assessment probability-based survey data.

Between 2000 and 2006, the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services and the University of New Hampshire collected water quality samples at 25 to 40 stations per year in a 56.5-km(2) estuary as part of the Environmental Protection Agency's National Coastal Assessment program. Due to the high density of stations, probabilistic statistics for the estuary could be calculated with low uncertainty. The proportions of the estuary exceeding thresholds in each year were calculated for temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll a, nitrogen as nitrate and nitrite, nitrogen as ammonium, phosphorus as orthophosphate, total suspended solids, and fecal coliform bacteria. These values were tested for trends over time and correlations with climate variables. The same statistical tests were applied to monthly grab sample data from a representative station in the estuary. The outcomes of the statistical tests on the two datasets were compared to determine if they provided similar information to coastal managers. Trends and correlations were equally likely to be detected using the probability-based data and the fixed station data, but the results were different for the two datasets. The differences were likely due to the distributed nature of the probability-based sampling design, which places stations in all sections of the estuary. In addition, expressing the probabilistic datasets as estimated proportions reduced variability in volatile parameters, such as bacteria, relative to the grab sample dataset. It will be important to develop tools to rectify trends from probability-based surveys with fixed station monitoring to provide clear information to managers.

Four decades of water quality change in the upper San Francisco Estuary.

Quantitative descriptions of chemical, physical, and biological characteristics of estuaries are critical for developing an ecological understanding of drivers of change. Historical trends and relationships between key species of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (ammonium, nitrate/nitrite, total) from the Delta region of the San Francisco Estuary were modeled with an estuarine adaptation of the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS). Analysis of flow-normalized data revealed trends that were different from those in the observed time-series. Flow-normalized data exhibited changes in magnitude and even reversal of trends relative to the observed data. Modelled trends demonstrated that nutrient concentrations were on average higher in the last twenty years relative to the earlier periods of observation, although concentrations have been slowly declining since the mid-1990s and early 2000s. We further describe mechanisms of change with two case studies that evaluated 1) downstream changes in nitrogen following upgrades at a wastewater treatment plant, and 2) interactions between biological invaders, chlorophyll, macro-nutrients (nitrogen and silica), and flow in Suisun Bay. WRTDS results for ammonium trends showed a distinct signal as a result of upstream wastewater treatment plant upgrades, with specific reductions observed in the winter months during low-flow conditions. Results for Suisun Bay showed that chlorophyll a production in early years was directly stimulated by flow, whereas the relationship with flow in later years was indirect and influenced by grazing pressure. Although these trends and potential causes of change have been described in the literature, results from WRTDS provided an approach to test alternative hypotheses of spatiotemporal drivers of nutrient dynamics in the Delta.

Relating road salt to exceedances of the water quality standard for chloride in New Hampshire streams.

Six watersheds in New Hampshire were studied to determine the effects of road salt on stream water quality. Specific conductance in streams was monitored every 15 min for one year using dataloggers. Chloride concentrations were calculated from specific conductance using empirical relationships. Stream chloride concentrations were directly correlated with development in the watersheds and were inversely related to streamflow. Exceedances of the EPA water quality standard for chloride were detected in the four watersheds with the most development. The number of exceedances during a year was linearly related to the annual average concentration of chloride. Exceedances of the water quality standard were not predicted for streams with annual average concentrations less than 102 mg L(-1). Chloride was imported into three of the watersheds at rates ranging from 45 to 98 Mg Cl km(-2) yr(-1). Ninety-one percent of the chloride imported was road salt for deicing roadways and parking lots. A simple, mass balance equation was shown to predict annual average chloride concentrations from streamflow and chloride import rates to the watershed. This equation, combined with the apparent threshold for exceedances of the water quality standard, can be used for screening-level TMDLs for road salt in impaired watersheds.