Predictors of Recurrent Ischemic Stroke in Patients with Embolic Strokes of Undetermined Source and Effects of Rivaroxaban Versus Aspirin According to Risk Status: The NAVIGATE ESUS Trial.

BACKGROUND: Embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) identifies patients with cryptogenic ischemic stroke presumed due to embolism from several unidentified sources. Among patients with recent ESUS, we sought to determine independent predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke during treatment with aspirin or rivaroxaban and to assess the relative effects of these treatments according to risk. METHODS: Exploratory analyses of 7213 participants in the NAVIGATE ESUS international trial who were randomized to aspirin 100 mg/day or rivaroxaban 15 mg/day and followed for a median of 11 months, during which time there were 309 first recurrent ischemic strokes (4.6% per year). Baseline features were correlated with recurrent stroke by multivariate analysis. RESULTS: The 7 independent predictors of recurrent stroke were stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) prior to the qualifying stroke (hazard ratio [HR] 2.03 95% confidence internal [CI] 1.58-2.60), current tobacco user (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.24-2.12), age (HR 1.02 per year increase, 95%CI 1.01-1.03), diabetes (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.01-1.64), multiple acute infarcts on neuroimaging (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.09-2.02), aspirin use prior to qualifying stroke (HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.02-1.70), and time from qualifying stroke to randomization (HR .98, 95% CI .97-.99). The rate of recurrent stroke rate was 2.6% per year for participants without any of these risk factors, and increased by an average of 45% for each independent predictor (P < .001). There were no significant interactions between treatment effects and independent stroke predictors or stroke risk status. CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort of ESUS patients, several features including prior stroke or TIA, advanced age, current tobacco user, multiple acute infarcts on neuroimaging, and diabetes independently identified those with an increased risk of ischemic stroke recurrence. The relative effects of rivaroxaban and aspirin were similar across the spectrum of independent stroke predictors and recurrent stroke risk status.

Detection of atrial fibrillation after stroke due to large or small vessel disease: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Emerging evidence indicates a frequent occurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) detection among patients with established causes of ischemic stroke unrelated to AF. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to evaluate AF detection rates in stroke patients with large or small vessel disease, considering the AF detection modality and duration of cardiac rhythm monitoring. AIMS: We conducted a comprehensive search of PubMed and Scopus databases up to March 2, 2024, to identify randomized controlled trials, non-randomized prospective studies, and retrospective studies assessing the frequency of AF detection in stroke patients with large or small vessel disease. The primary outcome of interest was the rate of AF detection. We utilized inverse-variance weights to produce the pooled prevalence (effect size-ES) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of patients diagnosed with post-stroke AF. SUMMARY OF REVIEW: In the analysis of 14 eligible studies encompassing 4,334 patients, AF was identified in 154 out of 2,082 patients with strokes attributed to small or large-vessel disease, yielding a pooled prevalence of 6.27% (ES; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.18-10.17, I2=87.83%). Among patients with large-vessel disease strokes, AF was diagnosed in 79 out of 1,042 patients, accounting for a pooled prevalence of 5.07% (ES;95% CI: 1.30-10.33, I2=77.05%). Similarly, among those with small-vessel disease strokes, AF was detected in 75 out of 1,040 patients, with a pooled prevalence of 5.03% (ES; 95% CI: 1.96-9.06, I2=78.05%). CONCLUSIONS: AF is often found in ischemic stroke patients with large or small-vessel disease. Detection rates increase with longer cardiac rhythm monitoring. The safety and benefits of oral anticoagulation for these AF episodes are uncertain.

Evaluating Rates of Recurrent Ischemic Stroke Among Young Adults With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source: The Young ESUS Longitudinal Cohort Study.

Importance: Cryptogenic strokes constitute approximately 40% of ischemic strokes in young adults, and most meet criteria for the embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). Two randomized clinical trials, NAVIGATE ESUS and RESPECT ESUS, showed a high rate of stroke recurrence in older adults with ESUS but the prognosis and prognostic factors among younger individuals with ESUS is uncertain. Objective: To determine rates of and factors associated with recurrent ischemic stroke and death and new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) among young adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: This multicenter longitudinal cohort study with enrollment from October 2017 to October 2019 and a mean follow-up period of 12 months ending in October 2020 included 41 stroke research centers in 13 countries. Consecutive patients 50 years and younger with a diagnosis of ESUS were included. Of 576 screened, 535 participants were enrolled after 1 withdrew consent, 41 were found to be ineligible, and 2 were excluded for other reasons. The final follow-up visit was completed by 520 patients. Main Outcomes and Measures: Recurrent ischemic stroke and/or death, recurrent ischemic stroke, and prevalence of patent foramen ovale (PFO). Results: The mean (SD) age of participants was 40.4 (7.3) years, and 297 (56%) participants were male. The most frequent vascular risk factors were tobacco use (240 patients [45%]), hypertension (118 patients [22%]), and dyslipidemia (109 patients [20%]). PFO was detected in 177 participants (50%) who had transthoracic echocardiograms with bubble studies. Following initial ESUS, 468 participants (88%) were receiving antiplatelet therapy, and 52 (10%) received anticoagulation. The recurrent ischemic stroke and death rate was 2.19 per 100 patient-years, and the ischemic stroke recurrence rate was 1.9 per 100 patient-years. Of the recurrent strokes, 9 (64%) were ESUS, 2 (14%) were cardioembolic, and 3 (21%) were of other determined cause. AF was detected in 15 participants (2.8%; 95% CI, 1.6-4.6). In multivariate analysis, the following were associated with recurrent ischemic stroke: history of stroke or transient ischemic attack (hazard ratio, 5.3; 95% CI, 1.8-15), presence of diabetes (hazard ratio, 4.4; 95% CI, 1.5-13), and history of coronary artery disease (hazard ratio, 10; 95% CI, 4.8-22). Conclusions and Relevance: In this large cohort of young adult patients with ESUS, there was a relatively low rate of subsequent ischemic stroke and a low frequency of new-onset AF. Most recurrent strokes also met the criteria for ESUS, suggesting the need for future studies to improve our understanding of the underlying stroke mechanism in this population.

Rivaroxaban versus aspirin for prevention of covert brain infarcts in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source: NAVIGATE ESUS MRI substudy.

BACKGROUND: Covert brain infarcts are associated with important neurological morbidity. Their incidence in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) is unknown. AIMS: To assess the incidence of covert brain infarcts and cerebral microbleeds using MRI in a prospective substudy of the NAVIGATE ESUS randomized trial and to evaluate the effects of antithrombotic therapies. METHODS: At 87 sites in 15 countries, substudy participants were randomly assigned to receive rivaroxaban 15 mg daily or aspirin 100 mg daily and underwent brain MRI near randomization and after study termination. The primary outcome was incident brain infarct (clinical ischemic stroke or covert brain infarct). Brain infarcts and microbleeds were ascertained centrally by readers unaware of treatment. Treatment effects were estimated using logistic regression. RESULTS: Among the 718 substudy participants with interpretable, paired MRIs, the mean age was 67 years and 61% were men with a median of 52 days between the qualifying ischemic stroke and randomization and a median of seven days between randomization and baseline MRI. During the median (IQR) 11 (12) month interval between scans, clinical ischemic strokes occurred in 27 (4%) participants, while 60 (9%) of the remaining participants had an incident covert brain infarct detected by MRI. Assignment to rivaroxaban was not associated with reduction in the incidence of brain infarct (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.49, 1.2) or of covert brain infarct among those without clinical stroke (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.50, 1.4). New microbleeds were observed in 7% and did not differ among those assigned rivaroxaban vs. aspirin (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.52-1.7). CONCLUSIONS: Incident covert brain infarcts occurred in twice as many ESUS patients as a clinical ischemic stroke. Treatment with rivaroxaban compared with aspirin did not significantly reduce the incidence of covert brain infarcts or increase the incidence of microbleeds, but the confidence intervals for treatment effects were wide.Registration: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02313909.