Geographical migration and fitness dynamics of Streptococcus pneumoniae.

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a leading cause of pneumonia and meningitis worldwide. Many different serotypes co-circulate endemically in any one location1,2. The extent and mechanisms of spread and vaccine-driven changes in fitness and antimicrobial resistance remain largely unquantified. Here using geolocated genome sequences from South Africa (n = 6,910, collected from 2000 to 2014), we developed models to reconstruct spread, pairing detailed human mobility data and genomic data. Separately, we estimated the population-level changes in fitness of strains that are included (vaccine type (VT)) and not included (non-vaccine type (NVT)) in pneumococcal conjugate vaccines, first implemented in South Africa in 2009. Differences in strain fitness between those that are and are not resistant to penicillin were also evaluated. We found that pneumococci only become homogenously mixed across South Africa after 50 years of transmission, with the slow spread driven by the focal nature of human mobility. Furthermore, in the years following vaccine implementation, the relative fitness of NVT compared with VT strains increased (relative risk of 1.68; 95% confidence interval of 1.59-1.77), with an increasing proportion of these NVT strains becoming resistant to penicillin. Our findings point to highly entrenched, slow transmission and indicate that initial vaccine-linked decreases in antimicrobial resistance may be transient.

Omicron extensively but incompletely escapes Pfizer BNT162b2 neutralization.

The emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern Omicron (Pango lineage B.1.1.529), first identified in Botswana and South Africa, may compromise vaccine effectiveness and lead to re-infections1. Here we investigated Omicron escape from neutralization by antibodies from South African individuals vaccinated with Pfizer BNT162b2. We used blood samples taken soon after vaccination from individuals who were vaccinated and previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 or vaccinated with no evidence of previous infection. We isolated and sequence-confirmed live Omicron virus from an infected person and observed that Omicron requires the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor to infect cells. We compared plasma neutralization of Omicron relative to an ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain and found that neutralization of ancestral virus was much higher in infected and vaccinated individuals compared with the vaccinated-only participants. However, both groups showed a 22-fold reduction in vaccine-elicited neutralization by the Omicron variant. Participants who were vaccinated and had previously been infected exhibited residual neutralization of Omicron similar to the level of neutralization of the ancestral virus observed in the vaccination-only group. These data support the notion that reasonable protection against Omicron may be maintained using vaccination approaches.

Omicron infection enhances Delta antibody immunity in vaccinated persons.

The extent to which Omicron infection1-9, with or without previous vaccination, elicits protection against the previously dominant Delta (B.1.617.2) variant is unclear. Here we measured the neutralization capacity against variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in 39 individuals in South Africa infected with the Omicron sublineage BA.1 starting at a median of 6 (interquartile range 3-9) days post symptom onset and continuing until last follow-up sample available, a median of 23 (interquartile range 19-27) days post symptoms to allow BA.1-elicited neutralizing immunity time to develop. Fifteen participants were vaccinated with Pfizer's BNT162b2 or Johnson & Johnson's Ad26.CoV2.S and had BA.1 breakthrough infections, and 24 were unvaccinated. BA.1 neutralization increased from a geometric mean 50% focus reduction neutralization test titre of 42 at enrolment to 575 at the last follow-up time point (13.6-fold) in vaccinated participants and from 46 to 272 (6.0-fold) in unvaccinated participants. Delta virus neutralization also increased, from 192 to 1,091 (5.7-fold) in vaccinated participants and from 28 to 91 (3.0-fold) in unvaccinated participants. At the last time point, unvaccinated individuals infected with BA.1 had low absolute levels of neutralization for the non-BA.1 viruses and 2.2-fold lower BA.1 neutralization, 12.0-fold lower Delta neutralization, 9.6-fold lower Beta variant neutralization, 17.9-fold lower ancestral virus neutralization and 4.8-fold lower Omicron sublineage BA.2 neutralization relative to vaccinated individuals infected with BA.1. These results indicate that hybrid immunity formed by vaccination and Omicron BA.1 infection should be protective against Delta and other variants. By contrast, infection with Omicron BA.1 alone offers limited cross-protection despite moderate enhancement.

Detection of a SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern in South Africa.

Continued uncontrolled transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in many parts of the world is creating conditions for substantial evolutionary changes to the virus1,2. Here we describe a newly arisen lineage of SARS-CoV-2 (designated 501Y.V2; also known as B.1.351 or 20H) that is defined by eight mutations in the spike protein, including three substitutions (K417N, E484K and N501Y) at residues in its receptor-binding domain that may have functional importance3-5. This lineage was identified in South Africa after the first wave of the epidemic in a severely affected metropolitan area (Nelson Mandela Bay) that is located on the coast of the Eastern Cape province. This lineage spread rapidly, and became dominant in Eastern Cape, Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces within weeks. Although the full import of the mutations is yet to be determined, the genomic data-which show rapid expansion and displacement of other lineages in several regions-suggest that this lineage is associated with a selection advantage that most plausibly results from increased transmissibility or immune escape6-8.

SARS-CoV-2 BA.4/5 infection triggers more cross-reactive FcγRIIIa signaling and neutralization than BA.1, in the context of hybrid immunity.

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) differentially trigger neutralizing and antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxic (ADCC) antibodies with variable cross-reactivity. Omicron BA.4/5 was approved for inclusion in bivalent vaccination boosters, and therefore the antigenic profile of antibodies elicited by this variant is critical to understand. Here, we investigate the ability of BA.4/5-elicited antibodies following the first documented (primary) infection (n = 13) or breakthrough infection after vaccination (n = 9) to mediate neutralization and FcγRIIIa signaling across multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants including XBB.1.5 and BQ.1. Using a pseudovirus neutralization assay and a FcγRIIIa crosslinking assay to measure ADCC potential, we show that unlike SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1, BA.4/5 infection triggers highly cross-reactive functional antibodies. Cross-reactivity was observed both in the absence of prior vaccination and in breakthrough infections following vaccination. However, BQ.1 and XBB.1.5 neutralization and FcγRIIIa signaling were significantly compromised compared to other VOCs, regardless of prior vaccination status. BA.4/5 triggered FcγRIIIa signaling was significantly more resilient against VOCs (<10-fold decrease in magnitude) compared to neutralization (10- to 100-fold decrease). Overall, this study shows that BA.4/5 triggered antibodies are highly cross-reactive compared to those triggered by other variants. Although this is consistent with enhanced neutralization and FcγRIIIa signaling breadth of BA.4/5 vaccine boosters, the reduced activity against XBB.1.5 supports the need to update vaccines with XBB sublineage immunogens to provide adequate coverage of these highly antibody evasive variants. IMPORTANCE: The continued evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has resulted in a number of variants of concern. Of these, the Omicron sublineage is the most immune evasive. Within Omicron, the BA.4/5 sublineage drove the fifth wave of infection in South Africa prior to becoming the dominant variant globally. As a result this spike sequence was approved as part of a bivalent vaccine booster, and rolled out worldwide. We aimed to understand the cross-reactivity of neutralizing and Fc mediated cytotoxic functions elicited by BA.4/5 infection following infection or breakthrough infection. We find that, in contrast to BA.1 which triggered fairly strain-specific antibodies, BA.4/5 triggered antibodies that are highly cross-reactive for neutralization and antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity potential. Despite this cross-reactivity, these antibodies are compromised against highly resistant variants such as XBB.1.5 and BQ.1. This suggests that next-generation vaccines will require XBB sublineage immunogens in order to protect against these evasive variants.

Genomic diversity and antimicrobial susceptibility of invasive Neisseria meningitidis in South Africa, 2016-2021.

BACKGROUND: Invasive meningococcal isolates in South Africa have in previous years (<2008) been characterized by serogroup B, C, W and Y lineages over time, with penicillin intermediate resistance (peni) at 6%. We describe the population structure and genomic markers of peni among invasive meningococcal isolates in South Africa, 2016-2021. METHODS: Meningococcal isolates were collected through national, laboratory-based invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) surveillance. Phenotypic antimicrobial susceptibility testing and whole-genome sequencing were performed, and the mechanism of reduced penicillin susceptibility was assessed in silico. RESULTS: Of 585 IMD cases reported during the study period, culture and PCR-based capsular group was determined for 477/585 (82%); and 241/477 (51%) were sequenced. Predominant serogroups included NmB (210/477; 44%), NmW (116/477; 24%), NmY (96/477; 20%) and NmC (48/477; 10%). Predominant clonal complexes (CC) were CC41/44 in NmB (27/113; 24%), CC11 in NmW (46/56; 82%), CC167 in NmY (23/44; 53%), and CC865 in NmC (9/24; 38%). Peni was detected in 16% (42/262) of isolates, and was due to the presence of a penA mosaic, with the majority harboring penA7, penA9 or penA14. CONCLUSION: IMD lineages circulating in South Africa were consistent with those circulating prior to 2008, however peni was higher than previously reported, and occurred in a variety of lineages.

Characteristics of infections with ancestral, Beta and Delta variants of SARS-CoV-2 in the PHIRST-C community cohort study, South Africa, 2020-2021.

BACKGROUND: Data on the characteristics of individuals with mild and asymptomatic infections with different SARS-CoV-2 variants are limited. We therefore compared the characteristics of individuals infected with ancestral, Beta and Delta SARS-CoV-2 variants in South Africa. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study in a rural and an urban site during July 2020-August 2021. Mid-turbinate nasal swabs were collected twice-weekly from household members irrespective of symptoms and tested for SARS-CoV-2 using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). Differences in demographic and clinical characteristics, shedding and cycle threshold (Ct) value of infection episodes by variant were evaluated using multinomial regression. Overall and age-specific incidence rates of infection were compared by variant. RESULTS: We included 1200 individuals from 222 households and 648 rRT-PCR-confirmed infection episodes (66, 10% ancestral, 260, 40% Beta, 322, 50% Delta). Symptomatic proportion was similar for ancestral (7, 11%), Beta (44, 17%), and Delta (46, 14%) infections (p=0.4). After accounting for previous infection, peak incidence shifted to younger age groups in successive waves (40-59 years ancestral, 19-39 years Beta, 13-18 years Delta). On multivariable analysis, compared to ancestral, Beta infection was more common in individuals aged 5-12 years (vs 19-39)(adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.6, 95% confidence interval (CI)1.1-6.6) and PCR cycle threshold (Ct) value <30 (vs >35)(aOR 3.2, 95%CI 1.3-7.9), while Delta was more common in individuals aged <5 (aOR 6.7, 95%CI1.4-31.2) and 5-12 years (aOR 6.6 95%CI2.6-16.7)(vs 19-39) and Ct value <30 (aOR 4.5, 95%CI 1.3-15.5) and 30-35 (aOR 6.0, 95%CI 2.3-15.7)(vs >35). CONCLUSIONS: Consecutive SARS-CoV-2 waves with Beta and Delta variants were associated with a shift to younger individuals. Beta and Delta infections were associated with higher peak viral loads, potentially increasing infectiousness.

Unmasking Pneumococcal Carriage in a High Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Prevalence Population in two Community Cohorts in South Africa, 2016-2018: The PHIRST Study.

BACKGROUND: Longitudinal pneumococcus colonization data in high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence settings following pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction are limited. METHODS: In 327 randomly selected households, 1684 individuals were enrolled and followed-up for 6 to 10 months during 2016 through 2018 from 2 communities. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected twice weekly and tested for pneumococcus using quantitative lytA real-time polymerase chain reaction. A Markov model was fitted to the data to define the start and end of an episode of colonization. We assessed factors associated with colonization using logistic regression. RESULTS: During the study period, 98% (1655/1684) of participants were colonized with pneumococcus at least once. Younger age (<5 years: adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 14.1; 95% confidence [CI], 1.8-111.3, and 5-24 years: aOR, 4.8, 95% CI, 1.9-11.9, compared with 25-44 years) and HIV infection (aOR, 10.1; 95% CI, 1.3-77.1) were associated with increased odds of colonization. Children aged <5 years had fewer colonization episodes (median, 9) than individuals ≥5 years (median, 18; P < .001) but had a longer episode duration (<5 years: 35.5 days; interquartile range, 17-88) vs. ≥5 years: 5.5 days (4-12). High pneumococcal loads were associated with age (<1 year: aOR 25.4; 95% CI, 7.4-87.6; 1-4 years: aOR 13.5, 95% CI 8.3-22.9; 5-14 years: aOR 3.1, 95% CI, 2.1-4.4 vs. 45-65 year old patients) and HIV infection (aOR 1.7; 95% CI 1.2-2.4). CONCLUSIONS: We observed high levels of pneumococcus colonization across all age groups. Children and people with HIV were more likely to be colonized and had higher pneumococcal loads. Carriage duration decreased with age highlighting that children remain important in pneumococcal transmission.

Trends in Cases, Hospitalizations, and Mortality Related to the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 Subvariants in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: In this study, we compared admission incidence risk and the risk of mortality in the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 wave to previous waves. METHODS: Data from South Africa's SARS-CoV-2 case linelist, national COVID-19 hospital surveillance system, and Electronic Vaccine Data System were linked and analyzed. Wave periods were defined when the country passed a weekly incidence of 30 cases/100 000 population. In-hospital case fatality ratios (CFRs) during the Delta, Omicron BA.1/BA.2, and Omicron BA.4/BA.5 waves were compared using post-imputation random effect multivariable logistic regression models. RESULTS: The CFR was 25.9% (N = 37 538 of 144 778), 10.9% (N = 6123 of 56 384), and 8.2% (N = 1212 of 14 879) in the Delta, Omicron BA.1/BA.2, and Omicron BA.4/BA.5 waves, respectively. After adjusting for age, sex, race, comorbidities, health sector, and province, compared with the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 wave, patients had higher risk of mortality in the Omicron BA.1/BA.2 wave (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.3; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2-1.4) and Delta wave (aOR, 3.0; 95% CI: 2.8-3.2). Being partially vaccinated (aOR, 0.9; 95% CI: .9-.9), fully vaccinated (aOR, 0.6; 95% CI: .6-.7), and boosted (aOR, 0.4; 95% CI: .4-.5) and having prior laboratory-confirmed infection (aOR, 0.4; 95% CI: .3-.4) were associated with reduced risks of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, admission incidence risk and in-hospital mortality, which had increased progressively in South Africa's first 3 waves, decreased in the fourth Omicron BA.1/BA.2 wave and declined even further in the fifth Omicron BA.4/BA.5 wave. Mortality risk was lower in those with natural infection and vaccination, declining further as the number of vaccine doses increased.

Household Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 From Adult Index Cases With and Without Human Immunodeficiency Virus in South Africa, 2020-2021: A Case-Ascertained, Prospective, Observational Household Transmission Study.

BACKGROUND: In South Africa, 19% of adults are living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; LWH). Few data on the influence of HIV on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) household transmission are available. METHODS: We performed a case-ascertained, prospective household transmission study of symptomatic adult index SARS-CoV-2 cases LWH and not living with HIV (NLWH) and their contacts from October 2020 to September 2021. Households were followed up 3 times a week for 6 weeks to collect nasal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 testing. We estimated household cumulative infection risk (HCIR) and duration of SARS-CoV-2 positivity (at a cycle threshold value <30 as proxy for high viral load). RESULTS: HCIR was 59% (220 of 373), not differing by index HIV status (60% LWH vs 58% NLWH). HCIR increased with index case age (35-59 years: adjusted OR [aOR], 3.4; 95% CI, 1.5-7.8 and ≥60 years: aOR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.0-10.1) compared with 18-34 years and with contacts' age, 13-17 years (aOR, 7.1; 95% CI, 1.5-33.9) and 18-34 years (aOR, 4.4; 95% CI, 1.0-18.4) compared with <5 years. Mean positivity was longer in cases LWH (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.4; 95% CI, .1-.9). CONCLUSIONS: Index HIV status was not associated with higher HCIR, but cases LWH had longer positivity duration. Adults aged >35 years were more likely to transmit and individuals aged 13-34 to be infected SARS-CoV-2 in the household. As HIV infection may increase transmission, health services must maintain HIV testing and antiretroviral therapy initiation.

Incidence and Transmission Dynamics of Bordetella pertussis Infection in Rural and Urban Communities, South Africa, 2016‒2018.

We conducted 3 prospective cohort studies (2016-2018), enrolling persons from 2 communities in South Africa. Nasopharyngeal swab specimens were collected twice a week from participants. Factors associated with Bordetella pertussis incidence, episode duration, and household transmission were determined by using Poisson regression, Weibull accelerated time-failure, and logistic regression hierarchical models, respectively. Among 1,684 participants, 118 episodes of infection were detected in 107 participants (incidence 0.21, 95% CI 0.17-0.25 infections/100 person-weeks). Children <5 years of age who had incomplete vaccination were more likely to have pertussis infection. Episode duration was longer for participants who had higher bacterial loads. Transmission was more likely to occur from male index case-patients and persons who had >7 days infection duration. In both communities, there was high incidence of B. pertussis infection and most cases were colonized.

Selection Analysis Identifies Clusters of Unusual Mutational Changes in Omicron Lineage BA.1 That Likely Impact Spike Function.

Among the 30 nonsynonymous nucleotide substitutions in the Omicron S-gene are 13 that have only rarely been seen in other SARS-CoV-2 sequences. These mutations cluster within three functionally important regions of the S-gene at sites that will likely impact (1) interactions between subunits of the Spike trimer and the predisposition of subunits to shift from down to up configurations, (2) interactions of Spike with ACE2 receptors, and (3) the priming of Spike for membrane fusion. We show here that, based on both the rarity of these 13 mutations in intrapatient sequencing reads and patterns of selection at the codon sites where the mutations occur in SARS-CoV-2 and related sarbecoviruses, prior to the emergence of Omicron the mutations would have been predicted to decrease the fitness of any virus within which they occurred. We further propose that the mutations in each of the three clusters therefore cooperatively interact to both mitigate their individual fitness costs, and, in combination with other mutations, adaptively alter the function of Spike. Given the evident epidemic growth advantages of Omicron overall previously known SARS-CoV-2 lineages, it is crucial to determine both how such complex and highly adaptive mutation constellations were assembled within the Omicron S-gene, and why, despite unprecedented global genomic surveillance efforts, the early stages of this assembly process went completely undetected.

Early assessment of the clinical severity of the SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant in South Africa: a data linkage study.

BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant of concern was identified in South Africa in November, 2021, and was associated with an increase in COVID-19 cases. We aimed to assess the clinical severity of infections with the omicron variant using S gene target failure (SGTF) on the Thermo Fisher Scientific TaqPath COVID-19 PCR test as a proxy. METHODS: We did data linkages for national, South African COVID-19 case data, SARS-CoV-2 laboratory test data, SARS-CoV-2 genome data, and COVID-19 hospital admissions data. For individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 via TaqPath PCR tests, infections were designated as either SGTF or non-SGTF. The delta variant was identified by genome sequencing. Using multivariable logistic regression models, we assessed disease severity and hospitalisations by comparing individuals with SGTF versus non-SGTF infections diagnosed between Oct 1 and Nov 30, 2021, and we further assessed disease severity by comparing SGTF-infected individuals diagnosed between Oct 1 and Nov 30, 2021, with delta variant-infected individuals diagnosed between April 1 and Nov 9, 2021. FINDINGS: From Oct 1 (week 39), 2021, to Dec 6 (week 49), 2021, 161 328 cases of COVID-19 were reported in South Africa. 38 282 people were diagnosed via TaqPath PCR tests and 29 721 SGTF infections and 1412 non-SGTF infections were identified. The proportion of SGTF infections increased from two (3·2%) of 63 in week 39 to 21 978 (97·9%) of 22 455 in week 48. After controlling for factors associated with hospitalisation, individuals with SGTF infections had significantly lower odds of admission than did those with non-SGTF infections (256 [2·4%] of 10 547 vs 121 [12·8%] of 948; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0·2, 95% CI 0·1-0·3). After controlling for factors associated with disease severity, the odds of severe disease were similar between hospitalised individuals with SGTF versus non-SGTF infections (42 [21%] of 204 vs 45 [40%] of 113; aOR 0·7, 95% CI 0·3-1·4). Compared with individuals with earlier delta variant infections, SGTF-infected individuals had a significantly lower odds of severe disease (496 [62·5%] of 793 vs 57 [23·4%] of 244; aOR 0·3, 95% CI 0·2-0·5), after controlling for factors associated with disease severity. INTERPRETATION: Our early analyses suggest a significantly reduced odds of hospitalisation among individuals with SGTF versus non-SGTF infections diagnosed during the same time period. SGTF-infected individuals had a significantly reduced odds of severe disease compared with individuals infected earlier with the delta variant. Some of this reduced severity is probably a result of previous immunity. FUNDING: The South African Medical Research Council, the South African National Department of Health, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the African Society of Laboratory Medicine, Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Wellcome Trust, and the Fleming Fund.

Effectiveness of the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine in health-care workers in South Africa (the Sisonke study): results from a single-arm, open-label, phase 3B, implementation study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess the effectiveness of a single dose of the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine (Johnson & Johnson) in health-care workers in South Africa during two waves of the South African COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS: In the single-arm, open-label, phase 3B implementation Sisonke study, health-care workers aged 18 years and older were invited for vaccination at one of 122 vaccination sites nationally. Participants received a single dose of 5 × 1010 viral particles of the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine. Vaccinated participants were linked with their person-level data from one of two national medical insurance schemes (scheme A and scheme B) and matched for COVID-19 risk with an unvaccinated member of the general population. The primary outcome was vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19, defined as COVID-19-related admission to hospital, hospitalisation requiring critical or intensive care, or death, in health-care workers compared with the general population, ascertained 28 days or more after vaccination or matching, up to data cutoff. This study is registered with the South African National Clinical Trial Registry, DOH-27-022021-6844, ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04838795, and the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry, PACTR202102855526180, and is closed to accrual. FINDINGS: Between Feb 17 and May 17, 2021, 477 102 health-care workers were enrolled and vaccinated, of whom 357 401 (74·9%) were female and 119 701 (25·1%) were male, with a median age of 42·0 years (33·0-51·0). 215 813 vaccinated individuals were matched with 215 813 unvaccinated individuals. As of data cutoff (July 17, 2021), vaccine effectiveness derived from the total matched cohort was 83% (95% CI 75-89) to prevent COVID-19-related deaths, 75% (69-82) to prevent COVID-19-related hospital admissions requiring critical or intensive care, and 67% (62-71) to prevent COVID-19-related hospitalisations. The vaccine effectiveness for all three outcomes were consistent across scheme A and scheme B. The vaccine effectiveness was maintained in older health-care workers and those with comorbidities including HIV infection. During the course of the study, the beta (B.1.351) and then the delta (B.1.617.2) SARS-CoV-2 variants of concerns were dominant, and vaccine effectiveness remained consistent (for scheme A plus B vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19-related hospital admission during beta wave was 62% [95% CI 42-76] and during delta wave was 67% [62-71], and vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19-related death during beta wave was 86% [57-100] and during delta wave was 82% [74-89]). INTERPRETATION: The single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine shows effectiveness against severe COVID-19 disease and COVID-19-related death after vaccination, and against both beta and delta variants, providing real-world evidence for its use globally. FUNDING: National Treasury of South Africa, the National Department of Health, Solidarity Response Fund NPC, The Michael & Susan Dell Foundation, The Elma Vaccines and Immunization Foundation, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national disease burden estimates of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in children younger than 5 years in 2019: a systematic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common cause of acute lower respiratory infection in young children. We previously estimated that in 2015, 33·1 million episodes of RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection occurred in children aged 0-60 months, resulting in a total of 118 200 deaths worldwide. Since then, several community surveillance studies have been done to obtain a more precise estimation of RSV associated community deaths. We aimed to update RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality at global, regional, and national levels in children aged 0-60 months for 2019, with focus on overall mortality and narrower infant age groups that are targeted by RSV prophylactics in development. METHODS: In this systematic analysis, we expanded our global RSV disease burden dataset by obtaining new data from an updated search for papers published between Jan 1, 2017, and Dec 31, 2020, from MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, CINAHL, Web of Science, LILACS, OpenGrey, CNKI, Wanfang, and ChongqingVIP. We also included unpublished data from RSV GEN collaborators. Eligible studies reported data for children aged 0-60 months with RSV as primary infection with acute lower respiratory infection in community settings, or acute lower respiratory infection necessitating hospital admission; reported data for at least 12 consecutive months, except for in-hospital case fatality ratio (CFR) or for where RSV seasonality is well-defined; and reported incidence rate, hospital admission rate, RSV positive proportion in acute lower respiratory infection hospital admission, or in-hospital CFR. Studies were excluded if case definition was not clearly defined or not consistently applied, RSV infection was not laboratory confirmed or based on serology alone, or if the report included fewer than 50 cases of acute lower respiratory infection. We applied a generalised linear mixed-effects model (GLMM) to estimate RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection incidence, hospital admission, and in-hospital mortality both globally and regionally (by country development status and by World Bank Income Classification) in 2019. We estimated country-level RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection incidence through a risk-factor based model. We developed new models (through GLMM) that incorporated the latest RSV community mortality data for estimating overall RSV mortality. This review was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42021252400). FINDINGS: In addition to 317 studies included in our previous review, we identified and included 113 new eligible studies and unpublished data from 51 studies, for a total of 481 studies. We estimated that globally in 2019, there were 33·0 million RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection episodes (uncertainty range [UR] 25·4-44·6 million), 3·6 million RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection hospital admissions (2·9-4·6 million), 26 300 RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection in-hospital deaths (15 100-49 100), and 101 400 RSV-attributable overall deaths (84 500-125 200) in children aged 0-60 months. In infants aged 0-6 months, we estimated that there were 6·6 million RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection episodes (4·6-9·7 million), 1·4 million RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection hospital admissions (1·0-2·0 million), 13 300 RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection in-hospital deaths (6800-28 100), and 45 700 RSV-attributable overall deaths (38 400-55 900). 2·0% of deaths in children aged 0-60 months (UR 1·6-2·4) and 3·6% of deaths in children aged 28 days to 6 months (3·0-4·4) were attributable to RSV. More than 95% of RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection episodes and more than 97% of RSV-attributable deaths across all age bands were in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). INTERPRETATION: RSV contributes substantially to morbidity and mortality burden globally in children aged 0-60 months, especially during the first 6 months of life and in LMICs. We highlight the striking overall mortality burden of RSV disease worldwide, with one in every 50 deaths in children aged 0-60 months and one in every 28 deaths in children aged 28 days to 6 months attributable to RSV. For every RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection in-hospital death, we estimate approximately three more deaths attributable to RSV in the community. RSV passive immunisation programmes targeting protection during the first 6 months of life could have a substantial effect on reducing RSV disease burden, although more data are needed to understand the implications of the potential age-shifts in peak RSV burden to older age when these are implemented. FUNDING: EU Innovative Medicines Initiative Respiratory Syncytial Virus Consortium in Europe (RESCEU).

The burden of RSV-associated illness in children aged < 5 years, South Africa, 2011 to 2016.

BACKGROUND: Vaccines and monoclonal antibodies to protect the very young infant against the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated illness are effective for limited time periods. We aimed to estimate age-specific burden to guide implementation strategies and cost-effectiveness analyses. METHODS: We combined case-based surveillance and ecological data to generate a national estimate of the burden of RSV-associated acute respiratory illness (ARI) and severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) in South African children aged < 5 years (2011-2016), including adjustment for attributable fraction. We estimated the RSV burden by month of life in the < 1-year age group, by 3-month intervals until 2 years, and then 12 monthly intervals to < 5 years for medically and non-medically attended illness. RESULTS: We estimated a mean annual total (medically and non-medically attended) of 264,112 (95% confidence interval (CI) 134,357-437,187) cases of RSV-associated ARI and 96,220 (95% CI 66,470-132,844) cases of RSV-associated SARI (4.7% and 1.7% of the population aged < 5 years, respectively). RSV-associated ARI incidence was highest in 2-month-old infants (18,361/100,000 population, 95% CI 9336-28,466). The highest incidence of RSV-associated SARI was in the < 1-month age group 14,674/100,000 (95% CI 11,175-19,645). RSV-associated deaths were highest in the first and second month of life (110.8 (95% CI 74.8-144.5) and 111.3 (86.0-135.8), respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Due to the high burden of RSV-associated illness, specifically SARI cases in young infants, maternal vaccination and monoclonal antibody products delivered at birth could prevent significant RSV-associated disease burden.

Transient increased risk of influenza infection following RSV infection in South Africa: findings from the PHIRST study, South Africa, 2016-2018.

BACKGROUND: Large-scale prevention of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection may have ecological consequences for co-circulating pathogens, including influenza. We assessed if and for how long RSV infection alters the risk for subsequent influenza infection. METHODS: We analysed a prospective longitudinal cohort study conducted in South Africa between 2016 and 2018. For participating households, nasopharyngeal samples were taken twice weekly, irrespective of symptoms, across three respiratory virus seasons, and real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to identify infection with RSV and/or influenza. We fitted an individual-level hidden Markov transmission model in order to estimate RSV and influenza infection rates and their interdependence. RESULTS: Of a total of 122,113 samples collected, 1265 (1.0%) were positive for influenza and 1002 (0.8%) positive for RSV, with 15 (0.01%) samples from 12 individuals positive for both influenza and RSV. We observed a 2.25-fold higher incidence of co-infection than expected if assuming infections were unrelated. We estimated that infection with influenza is 2.13 (95% CI 0.97-4.69) times more likely when already infected with, and for a week following, RSV infection, adjusted for age. This equates to 1.4% of influenza infections that may be attributable to RSV in this population. Due to the local seasonality (RSV season precedes the influenza season), we were unable to estimate changes in RSV infection risk following influenza infection. CONCLUSIONS: We find no evidence to suggest that RSV was associated with a subsequent reduced risk of influenza infection. Instead, we observed an increased risk for influenza infection for a short period after infection. However, the impact on population-level transmission dynamics of this individual-level synergistic effect was not measurable in this setting.

The economic burden of RSV-associated illness in children aged < 5 years, South Africa 2011-2016.

BACKGROUND: Data on the economic burden of RSV-associated illness will inform decisions on the programmatic implementation of maternal vaccines and monoclonal antibodies. We estimated the cost of RSV-associated illness in fine age bands to allow more accurate cost-effectiveness models to account for a limited duration of protection conferred by short- or long-acting interventions. METHODS: We conducted a costing study at sentinel sites across South Africa to estimate out-of-pocket and indirect costs for RSV-associated mild and severe illness. We collected facility-specific costs for staffing, equipment, services, diagnostic tests, and treatment. Using case-based data we calculated a patient day equivalent (PDE) for RSV-associated hospitalizations or clinic visits; the PDE was multiplied by the number of days of care to provide a case cost to the healthcare system. We estimated the costs in 3-month age intervals in children aged < 1 year and as a single group for children aged 1-4 years. We then applied our data to a modified version of the World Health Organization tool for estimating the mean annual national cost burden, including medically and non-medically attended RSV-associated illness. RESULTS: The estimated mean annual cost of RSV-associated illness in children aged < 5 years was US dollars ($)137,204,393, of which 76% ($111,742,713) were healthcare system incurred, 6% ($8,881,612) were out-of-pocket expenses and 13% ($28,225,.801) were indirect costs. Thirty-three percent ($45,652,677/$137,204,393) of the total cost in children aged < 5 years was in the < 3-month age group, of which 52% ($71,654,002/$137,204,393) were healthcare system incurred. The costs of non-medically attended cases increased with age from $3,307,218 in the < 3-month age group to $8,603,377 in the 9-11-month age group. CONCLUSIONS: Among children < 5 years of age with RSV in South Africa, the highest cost burden was in the youngest infants; therefore, interventions against RSV targeting this age group are important to reduce the health and cost burden of RSV-associated illness.

Excess Invasive Meningococcal Disease Associated With Seasonal Influenza, South Africa, 2003-2018.

BACKGROUND: Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is a devastating illness with high mortality rates. Like influenza, endemic IMD is seasonal, peaking in winter. Studies suggest that circulation of influenza virus may influence the timing and magnitude of IMD winter peaks. METHODS: This ecological study used weekly data from 2 nationwide surveillance programs: Viral Watch (proportion of outpatient influenza-positive cases from throat or nasal swab samples) and GERMS-SA (laboratory-confirmed cases of IMD), occurring across South Africa from 2003 through 2018 in all age bands. A bivariate time series analysis using wavelet transform was conducted to determine cocirculation of the diseases and the time lag between the peak seasons. We modeled excess meningococcal disease cases attributable to influenza cocirculation, using univariate regression spline models. Stata and R statistical software packages were used for the analysis. RESULTS: A total of 5256 laboratory-confirmed IMD cases were reported, with an average annual incidence of 0.23 episodes per 100 000 population and a mean seasonal peak during week 32 (±3 weeks). Forty-two percent of swab samples (10 421 of 24 741) were positive for influenza during the study period. The mean peak for all influenza occurred at week 26 (±4 weeks). There was an average lag time of 5 weeks between annual influenza and IMD seasons. Overall, 5% (1%-9%) of IMD cases can be attributable to influenza cocirculation, with, on average, 17 excess IMD cases per year attributable to influenza. CONCLUSIONS: A quantifiable proportion of IMD in South Africa is associated with influenza cocirculation; therefore, seasonal influenza vaccination may have an effect on preventing a small portion of IMD in addition to preventing influenza.

Prolonged Shedding of Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) at High Viral Loads Among Hospitalized Immunocompromised Persons Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), South Africa.

BACKGROUND: We assessed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA shedding duration and magnitude among persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV, PLHIV). METHODS: From May through December 2020, we conducted a prospective cohort study at 20 hospitals in South Africa. Adults hospitalized with symptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) were enrolled and followed every 2 days with nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal (NP/OP) swabs until documentation of cessation of SARS-CoV-2 shedding (2 consecutive negative NP/OP swabs). Real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction testing for SARS-CoV-2 was performed, and cycle-threshold (Ct) values < 30 were considered a proxy for high SARS-CoV-2 viral load. Factors associated with prolonged shedding were assessed using accelerated time-failure Weibull regression models. RESULTS: Of 2175 COVID-19 patients screened, 300 were enrolled, and 257 individuals (155 HIV-uninfected and 102 PLHIV) had > 1 swabbing visit (median 5 visits [range 2-21]). Median time to cessation of shedding was 13 days (interquartile range [IQR] 6-25) and did not differ significantly by HIV infection. Among a subset of 94 patients (41 PLHIV and 53 HIV-uninfected) with initial respiratory sample Ct-value < 30, median time of shedding at high SARS-CoV-2 viral load was 8 days (IQR 4-17). This was significantly longer in PLHIV with CD4 count < 200 cells/µL, compared to HIV-uninfected persons (median 27 days [IQR 8-43] vs 7 days [IQR 4-13]; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] .07-.28, P < .001), as well as in unsuppressed-HIV versus HIV-uninfected persons. CONCLUSIONS: Although SARS-CoV-2 shedding duration did not differ significantly by HIV infection, among a subset with high initial SARS-CoV-2 viral loads, immunocompromised PLHIV shed SARS-CoV-2 at high viral loads for longer than HIV-uninfected persons. Better HIV control may potentially decrease transmission time of SARS-CoV-2.