Associations of CDH1 germline variant location and cancer phenotype in families with hereditary diffuse gastric cancer (HDGC).

INTRODUCTION: Hereditary diffuse gastric cancer (HDGC) is a cancer syndrome associated with variants in E-cadherin (CDH1), diffuse gastric cancer and lobular breast cancer. There is considerable heterogeneity in its clinical manifestations. This study aimed to determine associations between CDH1 germline variant status and clinical phenotypes of HDGC. METHODS: One hundred and fifty-two HDGC families, including six previously unreported families, were identified. CDH1 gene-specific guidelines released by the Clinical Genome Resource (ClinGen) CDH1 Variant Curation Expert Panel were applied for pathogenicity classification of truncating, missense and splice site CDH1 germline variants. We evaluated ORs between location of truncating variants of CDH1 and incidence of colorectal cancer, breast cancer and cancer at young age (gastric cancer at <40 or breast cancer <50 years of age). RESULTS: Frequency of truncating germline CDH1 variants varied across functional domains of the E-cadherin receptor gene and was highest in linker (0.05785 counts/base pair; p=0.0111) and PRE regions (0.10000; p=0.0059). Families with truncating CDH1 germline variants located in the PRE-PRO region were six times more likely to have family members affected by colorectal cancer (OR 6.20, 95% CI 1.79 to 21.48; p=0.004) compared with germline variants in other regions. Variants in the intracellular E-cadherin region were protective for cancer at young age (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.64; p=0.0071) and in the linker regions for breast cancer (OR 0.35, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.99; p=0.0493). Different CDH1 genotypes were associated with different intracellular signalling activation levels including different p-ERK, p-mTOR and ß-catenin levels in early submucosal T1a lesions of HDGC families with different CDH1 variants. CONCLUSION: Type and location of CDH1 germline variants may help to identify families at increased risk for concomitant cancers that might benefit from individualised surveillance and intervention strategies.

Risk of HPV-16/18 Infections and Associated Cervical Abnormalities in Women Seropositive for Naturally Acquired Antibodies: Pooled Analysis Based on Control Arms of Two Large Clinical Trials.

Background: Studies on the role of antibodies produced after infection with human papillomavirus 18 (HPV-18) and subsequent protection from HPV-18 infection have been conflicting, mainly due to inadequate sample size. Methods: We pooled data from the control arms of the Costa Rica Vaccine Trial and the PATRICIA trial. Using Poisson regression we compared the risk of newly detected 1-time HPV-18 infection, HPV-18 1-year persistent infection (12MPI), and HPV-18-associated atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or greater (ASC-US+) lesions between HPV-18 seropositive and seronegative women. Results: High HPV-18 antibodies at enrollment was associated with reduced subsequent HPV-18 detection (P trend = 0.001; relative rate [RR] = 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.47-1.01 for the third quartile; RR = 0.63; 95% CI, 0.43-0.94 for the fourth quartile, compared to seronegative). The risk of 12MPI showed a decreasing trend with increasing antibodies (P trend = 0.06; RR = 0.72; 95% CI, 0.29-1.77; RR = 0.42; 95% CI, 0.13-1.32 for the third and fourth quartiles, respectively). Lastly, we observed a significant decreased risk of HPV-18 ASC-US+ with increasing antibody (P trend = 0.01; RR = 0.46; 95% CI, 0.21-0.97 for the fourth quartile). We also observed a significant decreased risk of HPV-16 infection, 12MPI, and ASC-US+ with increasing HPV-16 antibody level. Conclusions: High HPV-18 naturally acquired antibodies were associated with partial protection from future HPV-18 infections and associated lesions. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT00128661 and NCT001226810.

Genome-wide association study identifies the GLDC/IL33 locus associated with survival of osteosarcoma patients.

Survival rates for osteosarcoma, the most common primary bone cancer, have changed little over the past three decades and are particularly low for patients with metastatic disease. We conducted a multi-institutional genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify germline genetic variants associated with overall survival in 632 patients with osteosarcoma, including 523 patients of European ancestry and 109 from Brazil. We conducted a time-to-event analysis and estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using Cox proportional hazards models, with and without adjustment for metastatic disease. The results were combined across the European and Brazilian case sets using a random-effects meta-analysis. The strongest association after meta-analysis was for rs3765555 at 9p24.1, which was inversely associated with overall survival (HR = 1.76; 95% CI 1.41-2.18, p = 4.84 × 10-7 ). After imputation across this region, the combined analysis identified two SNPs that reached genome-wide significance. The strongest single association was with rs55933544 (HR = 1.9; 95% CI 1.5-2.4; p = 1.3 × 10-8 ), which localizes to the GLDC gene, adjacent to the IL33 gene and was consistent across both the European and Brazilian case sets. Using publicly available data, the risk allele was associated with lower expression of IL33 and low expression of IL33 was associated with poor survival in an independent set of patients with osteosarcoma. In conclusion, we have identified the GLDC/IL33 locus on chromosome 9p24.1 as associated with overall survival in patients with osteosarcoma. Further studies are needed to confirm this association and shed light on the biological underpinnings of this susceptibility locus.

Cross-protection of the Bivalent Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccine Against Variants of Genetically Related High-Risk HPV Infections.

BACKGROUND: Results from the Costa Rica Vaccine Trial (CVT) demonstrated partial cross-protection by the bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine, which targets HPV-16 and HPV-18, against HPV-31, -33, and -45 infection and an increased incidence of HPV-51 infection. METHODS: A study nested within the CVT intention-to-treat cohort was designed to assess high-risk HPV variant lineage-specific vaccine efficacy (VE). The 2 main end points were (1) long-term incident infections persisting for ≥2 years and/or progression to high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (ie, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2/3 [CIN 2/3]) and (2) incident transient infections lasting for <2 years. For efficiency, incident infections due to HPV-16, -18, -31, -33, -35, -45, and -51 resulting in persistent infection and/or CIN 2/3 were matched (ratio, 1:2) to the more-frequent transient viral infections, by HPV type. Variant lineages were determined by sequencing the upstream regulatory region and/or E6 region. RESULTS: VEs against persistent or transient infections with HPV-16, -18, -33, -35, -45, and -51 did not differ significantly by variant lineage. As the possible exception, VEs against persistent infection and/or CIN 2/3 due to HPV-31 A/B and HPV-31C variants were -7.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], -33.9% to 0%) and 86.4% (95% CI, 65.1%-97.1%), respectively (P = .02 for test of equal VE). No difference in VE was observed by variant among transient HPV-31 infections (P = .68). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, sequence variation at the variant level does not appear to explain partial cross-protection by the bivalent HPV vaccine.

A case-control study of occupational sunlight exposure and renal cancer risk.

Epidemiological evidence of a relationship between vitamin D and kidney cancer risk has been inconsistent despite experimental data indicating that vitamin D and its metabolites may inhibit carcinogenesis. Previously we reported an inverse association between renal cell carcinoma (RCC) risk and occupational ultraviolet (UV) exposure among European men. In this study, we examined the association between occupational UV exposure and RCC risk among US residents and investigated whether this association varied by race and sex. Lifetime occupational data for 1,217 RCC cases and 1,235 controls in a population-based case-control study, conducted from 2002 to 2007, were assessed for occupational UV exposure. We evaluated exposure metrics in quartiles based on control exposure levels and calculated associations between RCC risk and occupational UV exposure using unconditional logistic regression adjusted for sex, race, body mass index, smoking, hypertension, center, education, family history of cancer and dietary vitamin D intake. A general pattern of decreasing RCC risk with increasing UV exposure was observed. Cases had significantly lower cumulative occupational UV exposure than controls (fourth quartile vs. first: odds ratio = 0.74 [95% confidence interval = 0.56-0.99], p-trend = 0.03). Similar results were observed for other UV exposure metrics. The association with occupational UV exposure was stronger for women than for men, but did not differ by race. Our findings suggest an inverse association between occupational UV exposure and RCC, particularly among women. Given the sex finding discrepancies in this study versus our previous study, additional research is need to clarify whether the protective effects of occupational UV exposure and RCC risk are real.

Analgesic use and risk of renal cell carcinoma: A case-control, cohort and meta-analytic assessment.

Analgesics are the most commonly consumed drugs worldwide. Evidence that analgesics increase kidney cancer risk has been mixed. We investigated the association between renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and analgesic use in a large population-based case-control study and a post-trial observational cohort study. Findings were used to update a recent meta-analytic review. We analyzed data from 1,217 RCC cases and 1,235 controls in the US Kidney Cancer Study and 98,807 participants in the US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO: n = 137 RCCs). Self-reported acetaminophen, aspirin and nonsteroid anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use and duration information was assessed in relation to RCC. For the US Kidney Cancer Study, we calculated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using unconditional logistic regression. For PLCO, we computed hazard ratios (HRs) and 95%CIs using Cox regression. Among case-control participants, RCC risk was associated with over-the-counter acetaminophen use (OR = 1.35, 95%CI = 1.01-1.83). There was a positive trend with increasing duration (p-trend = 0.01), with a two-fold risk for use ≥10 years (OR = 2.01, 95%CI = 1.30-3.12). No association with prescription acetaminophen use was detected. In PLCO, acetaminophen use was also associated with increased RCC risk (HR = 1.68, 95%CI = 1.19-2.39), although elevated risk was absent among the few long-term users. No association with RCC risk was detected for aspirin or NSAIDs use in either study. An association between acetaminophen use and kidney cancer was supported by meta-analytic cohort (n = 4; summary relative risk = 1.34; 95%CI = 1.13-1.59; p-heterogeneity = 0.40) and case-control (n = 9, summary OR = 1.20; 95%CI = 1.01-1.42; p-heterogeneity = 0.05) findings. In brief, acetaminophen use may increase the risk of developing RCC.

Impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) 16 and 18 vaccination on prevalent infections and rates of cervical lesions after excisional treatment.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus vaccines prevent human papillomavirus infection and cervical precancers. The impact of vaccinating women with a current infection or after treatment for an human papillomavirus-associated lesion is not fully understood. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether human papillomavirus-16/18 vaccination influences the outcome of infections present at vaccination and the rate of infection and disease after treatment of lesions. STUDY DESIGN: We included 1711 women (18-25 years) with carcinogenic human papillomavirus infection and 311 women of similar age who underwent treatment for cervical precancer and who participated in a community-based trial of the AS04-adjuvanted human papillomavirus-16/18 virus-like particle vaccine. Participants were randomized (human papillomavirus or hepatitis A vaccine) and offered 3 vaccinations over 6 months. Follow-up included annual visits (more frequently if clinically indicated), referral to colposcopy of high-grade and persistent low-grade lesions, treatment by loop electrosurgical excisional procedure when clinically indicated, and cytologic and virologic follow-up after treatment. Among women with human papillomavirus infection at the time of vaccination, we considered type-specific viral clearance, and development of cytologic (squamous intraepithelial lesions) and histologic (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia) lesions. Among treated women, we considered single-time and persistent human papillomavirus infection, squamous intraepithelial lesions, and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or greater. Outcomes associated with infections absent before treatment also were evaluated. Infection-level analyses were performed and vaccine efficacy estimated. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 56.7 months (women with human papillomavirus infection) and 27.3 months (treated women). There was no evidence of vaccine efficacy to increase clearance of human papillomavirus infections or decrease incidence of cytologic/histologic abnormalities associated with human papillomavirus types present at enrollment. Vaccine efficacy for human papillomavirus 16/18 clearance and against human papillomavirus 16/18 progression from infection to cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or greater were -5.4% (95% confidence interval -19,10) and 0.3% (95% confidence interval -69,41), respectively. Among treated women, 34.1% had oncogenic infection and 1.6% had cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or greater detected after treatment, respectively, and of these 69.8% and 20.0% were the result of new infections. We observed no significant effect of vaccination on rates of infection/lesions after treatment. Vaccine efficacy estimates for human papillomavirus 16/18 associated persistent infection and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or greater after treatment were 34.7% (95% confidence interval -131, 82) and -211% (95% confidence interval -2901, 68), respectively. We observed evidence for a partial and nonsignificant protective effect of vaccination against new infections absent before treatment. For incident human papillomavirus 16/18, human papillomavirus 31/33/45, and oncogenic human papillomavirus infections post-treatment, vaccine efficacy estimates were 57.9% (95% confidence interval -43, 88), 72.9% (95% confidence interval 29, 90), and 36.7% (95% confidence interval 1.5, 59), respectively. CONCLUSION: We find no evidence for a vaccine effect on the fate of detectable human papillomavirus infections. We show that vaccination does not protect against infections/lesions after treatment. Evaluation of vaccine protection against new infections after treatment and resultant lesions warrants further consideration in future studies.

Multivariate piecewise exponential survival modeling.

In this article, we develop a piecewise Poisson regression method to analyze survival data from complex sample surveys involving cluster-correlated, differential selection probabilities, and longitudinal responses, to conveniently draw inference on absolute risks in time intervals that are prespecified by investigators. Extensive simulations evaluate the developed methods with extensions to multiple covariates under various complex sample designs, including stratified sampling, sampling with selection probability proportional to a measure of size (PPS), and a multi-stage cluster sampling. We applied our methods to a study of mortality in men diagnosed with prostate cancer in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) cancer screening trial to investigate whether a biomarker available from biospecimens collected near time of diagnosis stratifies subsequent risk of death. Poisson regression coefficients and absolute risks of mortality (and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals) for prespecified age intervals by biomarker levels are estimated. We conclude with a brief discussion of the motivation, methods, and findings of the study.

A genome-wide association study identifies alleles in FGFR2 associated with risk of sporadic postmenopausal breast cancer.

We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of breast cancer by genotyping 528,173 SNPs in 1,145 postmenopausal women of European ancestry with invasive breast cancer and 1,142 controls. We identified four SNPs in intron 2 of FGFR2 (which encodes a receptor tyrosine kinase and is amplified or overexpressed in some breast cancers) that were highly associated with breast cancer and confirmed this association in 1,776 affected individuals and 2,072 controls from three additional studies. Across the four studies, the association with all four SNPs was highly statistically significant (P(trend) for the most strongly associated SNP (rs1219648) = 1.1 x 10(-10); population attributable risk = 16%). Four SNPs at other loci most strongly associated with breast cancer in the initial GWAS were not associated in the replication studies. Our summary results from the GWAS are available online in a form that should speed the identification of additional risk loci.

Genome-wide association study of prostate cancer identifies a second risk locus at 8q24.

Recently, common variants on human chromosome 8q24 were found to be associated with prostate cancer risk. While conducting a genome-wide association study in the Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility project with 550,000 SNPs in a nested case-control study (1,172 cases and 1,157 controls of European origin), we identified a new association at 8q24 with an independent effect on prostate cancer susceptibility. The most significant signal is 70 kb centromeric to the previously reported SNP, rs1447295, but shows little evidence of linkage disequilibrium with it. A combined analysis with four additional studies (total: 4,296 cases and 4,299 controls) confirms association with prostate cancer for rs6983267 in the centromeric locus (P = 9.42 x 10(-13); heterozygote odds ratio (OR): 1.26, 95% confidence interval (c.i.): 1.13-1.41; homozygote OR: 1.58, 95% c.i.: 1.40-1.78). Each SNP remained significant in a joint analysis after adjusting for the other (rs1447295 P = 1.41 x 10(-11); rs6983267 P = 6.62 x 10(-10)). These observations, combined with compelling evidence for a recombination hotspot between the two markers, indicate the presence of at least two independent loci within 8q24 that contribute to prostate cancer in men of European ancestry. We estimate that the population attributable risk of the new locus, marked by rs6983267, is higher than the locus marked by rs1447295 (21% versus 9%).

Efficacy of fewer than three doses of an HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine: combined analysis of data from the Costa Rica Vaccine and PATRICIA Trials.

BACKGROUND: There is some evidence to suggest that one or two doses of the HPV vaccine provides similar protection to the three-dose regimen. The main aim of the study was to ascertain HPV-16/18 vaccine efficacy in both full and naive cohorts and to explore protection conferred against non-vaccine HPV types, by number of doses received. METHODS: Summary data from the Costa Rica Vaccine Trial (CVT; NCT00128661) and ~the PATRICIA trial (NCT001226810), two phase 3, double-blind, randomised controlled clinical trials of the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine in young women, were combined in a post-hoc analysis (GlaxoSmithKline [GSK] e-track number 202142) to investigate the efficacy of fewer than three doses of the HPV-16/18 vaccine after 4 years of follow-up. Women were randomly assigned to receive three doses of the HPV-16/18 vaccine or to a control vaccine; yet, some received fewer doses. After exclusion of women with less than 12 months of follow-up or those who were HPV-16/18 DNA-positive at enrolment (for the HPV-16/18 endpoint), we calculated vaccine efficacy against one-time detection of incident HPV infections after three, two, and one dose(s). The primary study endpoint was one-time detection of first incident HPV-16/18 infections accumulated during the follow-up phase. FINDINGS: We assessed vaccine efficacy against incident HPV-16/18 infection in the modified total vaccinated cohort (22 327 received three doses, 1185 two doses, 543 one dose). Vaccine efficacy against incident HPV-16/18 infections for three doses was 77·0% (95% CI 74·7-79·1), two doses was 76·0% (62·0-85·3), and one dose was 85·7% (70·7-93·7). Vaccine efficacy against incident HPV-31/33/45 infections for three doses was 59·7% (56·0-63·0), two doses was 37·7% (12·4-55·9), and one dose was 36·6% (-5·4 to 62·2). Vaccine efficacy against incident HPV-16/18 infection for two-dose women who received their second dose at 1 month was 75·3% (54·2-87·5) and 82·6% (42·3-96·1) for those who received the second dose at 6 months (CVT data only). Vaccine efficacy against HPV-31/33/45 for two-dose women who received their second dose at 6 months (68·1%, 27·0-87·0; CVT data only), but not those receiving it at one month (10·1%, -42·0 to 43·3), was similar to the three-dose group. INTERPRETATION: 4 years after vaccination of women aged 15-25 years, one and two doses of the HPV-16/18 vaccine seem to protect against cervical HPV-16/18 infections, similar to the protection provided by the three-dose schedule. Two doses separated by 6 months additionally provided some cross-protection. These data argue for a direct assessment of one-dose efficacy of the HPV-16/18 vaccine. FUNDING: US National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health Office of Research on Women's Health, and Ministry of Health of Costa Rica (CVT); GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals SA (PATRICIA).

Leveraging family history in population-based case-control association studies.

Population-based epidemiologic studies often gather information from study participants on disease history among their family members. Although investigators widely recognize that family history will be associated with genotypes of the participants at disease susceptibility loci, they commonly ignore such information in primary genetic association analyses. In this report, we propose a simple approach to association testing by incorporating family history information as a "phenotype." We account for the expected attenuation in strength of association of the genotype of study participants with family history under Mendelian transmission. The proposed analysis can be performed using standard statistical software adopting either a meta- or pooled-analysis framework. Re-analysis of a total of 115 known susceptibility single-nucleotide polymorphisms, discovered through genome-wide association studies for several disease traits, indicates that incorporation of family history information can increase efficiency by as much as 40%. Efficiency gain depends on the type of design used for conducting the primary study, extent of family history, and accuracy and completeness of reporting.

HPV16 methyl-haplotypes determined by a novel next-generation sequencing method are associated with cervical precancer.

We have developed and evaluated a next-generation bisulfite sequencing (NGS) assay to distinguish HPV16 cervical precancer (CIN2-3; N=59) from HPV16-positive transient infections (N=40). Cervical DNA was isolated and treated with bisulfite and HPV16 methylation was quantified by (i) amplification with barcoded primers and massively parallel single molecule sequencing and (ii) site-specific pyrosequencing. Assays were evaluated for agreement using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). Odds ratios (OR) for high methylation vs. low methylation were calculated. Single site pyrosequencing and NGS data were correlated (ICC=0.61) and both indicated hypermethylation was associated with precancer (ORs of 2-37). Concordant NGS and pyrosequencing results yieled ORs that were stronger when compared with using either assay separately. Within the L1 region, the ORs for CIN2-3 were 14.3 and 22.4 using pyrosequencing and NGS assays, respectively; when both methods agreed the OR was 153. NGS assays provide methylation haplotypes, termed methyl-haplotypes from single molecule reads: cases had increased methyl-haplotypes with ≥1 methylated CpG site(s) per fragment compared with controls, particularly in L1 (p=3.0×10(-8)). The maximum discrimination of cases from controls for a L1 methyl-haplotype had an AUC of 0.89 corresponding to a sensitivity of 92.5% and a specificity of 73.1%. The strengthening of the OR when the two assays were concordant suggests the true association of CpG methylation with precancer is stronger than with either assay. As cervical cancer prevention moves to DNA testing methods, DNA based biomarkers, such as HPV methylation could serve as a reflex strategy to identify women at high risk for cervix cancer.

Beyond odds ratios--communicating disease risk based on genetic profiles.

The brisk discovery of novel inherited disease markers by genome-wide association (GWA) studies has raised expectations for predicting disease risk by analysing multiple common alleles. However, the statistics used during the discovery phase of research (such as odds ratios or p values for association) are not the most appropriate measures for evaluating the predictive value of genetic profiles. We argue that other measures--such as sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values--are more useful when proposing a genetic profile for risk prediction.

A flexible Bayesian model for studying gene-environment interaction.

An important follow-up step after genetic markers are found to be associated with a disease outcome is a more detailed analysis investigating how the implicated gene or chromosomal region and an established environment risk factor interact to influence the disease risk. The standard approach to this study of gene-environment interaction considers one genetic marker at a time and therefore could misrepresent and underestimate the genetic contribution to the joint effect when one or more functional loci, some of which might not be genotyped, exist in the region and interact with the environment risk factor in a complex way. We develop a more global approach based on a Bayesian model that uses a latent genetic profile variable to capture all of the genetic variation in the entire targeted region and allows the environment effect to vary across different genetic profile categories. We also propose a resampling-based test derived from the developed Bayesian model for the detection of gene-environment interaction. Using data collected in the Environment and Genetics in Lung Cancer Etiology (EAGLE) study, we apply the Bayesian model to evaluate the joint effect of smoking intensity and genetic variants in the 15q25.1 region, which contains a cluster of nicotinic acetylcholine receptor genes and has been shown to be associated with both lung cancer and smoking behavior. We find evidence for gene-environment interaction (P-value = 0.016), with the smoking effect appearing to be stronger in subjects with a genetic profile associated with a higher lung cancer risk; the conventional test of gene-environment interaction based on the single-marker approach is far from significant.

Reduced prevalence of vulvar HPV16/18 infection among women who received the HPV16/18 bivalent vaccine: a nested analysis within the Costa Rica Vaccine Trial.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine efficacy (VE) against vulvar human papillomavirus (HPV) infection has not been reported and data regarding its epidemiology are sparse. METHODS: Women (n = 5404) age 22-29 present at the 4-year study visit of the Costa Rica Vaccine Trial provided vulvar and cervical samples. A subset (n = 1044) was tested for HPV DNA (SPF10/LiPA25 version 1). VE against 1-time detection of vulvar HPV16/18 among HPV vaccinated versus unvaccinated women was calculated and compared to the cervix. Prevalence of and risk factors for HPV were evaluated in the control arm (n = 536). RESULTS: Vulvar HPV16/18 VE (54.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.9%-79.1%) was comparable to cervix (45.8%; 95% CI, 6.4%-69.4%). Vulvar and cervical HPV16 prevalence within the control arm was 3.0% and 4.7%, respectively. Independent risk factors for vulvar HPV were similar to cervix and included: age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.5 [95% CI, .3-.9] ≥28 vs 22-23]); marital status (aOR 2.3 [95% CI, 1.5-3.5] single vs married/living-as-married); and number of sexual partners (aOR 3.6 [95% CI, 1.9-7.0] ≥6 vs 1). CONCLUSIONS: In this intention-to-treat analysis, VE against vulvar and cervical HPV16/18 were comparable 4 years following vaccination. Risk factors for HPV were similar by anatomic site. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT00128661.

Invited commentary: How big is that interaction (in my community)--and in which direction?

In an accompanying article, Turner et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2014;180(12):1145-1149) compare the joint effects of smoking and air pollution to make inferences about the reduction in lung cancer mortality achieved when reducing each exposure separately and when reducing both together. In this commentary, we use first principles to quantify the difference between the risk or mortality reduction obtained from reducing each of 2 exposures together and the sum of the risk differences obtained from reducing the 2 exposures separately. Metrics of the impact of joint effects or comparisons of joint effects presented in units of absolute risk, such as Rothman's I, can provide more meaningful quantitative measures of public health impact than unitless metrics (e.g., ratios) and standardized metrics (e.g., the population attributable fraction) of potential interventions for reducing smoking and air pollution exposure. In particular, the venerable attributable community risk metric can provide an estimate of the community impact of such interventions in units of absolute risk. A spreadsheet we provide demonstrates the calculation of the various metrics for hypothetical data similar to those reported by Turner et al. Using algebra, graphics, and examples, we show that positive interaction, or synergy, on the additive scale implies that the impact on risk reduction from a program that applies both interventions will be lesser than the sum of the impacts of the separate interventions.

Effect of different human papillomavirus serological and DNA criteria on vaccine efficacy estimates.

Two trials of clinically approved human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines, Females United to Unilaterally Reduce Endo/Ectocervical Disease (FUTURE I/II) and the Papilloma Trial Against Cancer in Young Adults (PATRICIA), reported a 22% difference in vaccine efficacy (VE) against cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse in HPV-naïve subcohorts; however, serological testing methods and the HPV DNA criteria used to define HPV-unexposed women differed between the studies. We applied previously described methods to simulate these HPV-naïve subcohorts within the Costa Rica HPV16/18 Vaccine Trial and assessed how these criteria affect the estimation of VE. We applied 2 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) thresholds for HPV16 and HPV18 seropositivity (8 and 7 ELISA units/mL, respectively, for PATRICIA; 54 and 65 ELISA units/mL, respectively, for FUTURE I/II (to approximate the competitive Luminex immunoassay)) and 2 criteria for HPV DNA positivity (12 oncogenic HPV types, plus HPV66 and 68/73 for PATRICIA; or plus HPV6 and 11 for FUTURE I/II). VE was computed in the 2 naïve subcohorts. Using the FUTURE I/II and PATRICIA criteria, VE estimates against cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse, regardless of HPV type, were 69.0% (95% confidence interval: 40.3%, 84.9%) and 80.8% (95% confidence interval: 52.6%, 93.5%), respectively (P = 0.1). Although the application of FUTURE I/II criteria to our cohort resulted in the inclusion of more sexually experienced women, methodological differences did not fully explain the VE differences.

Glutathione S-transferase L1 multiplex serology as a measure of cumulative infection with human papillomavirus.

BACKGROUND: Several assays are used to measure type-specific serological responses to human papillomavirus (HPV), including the bead-based glutathione S-transferase (GST)-L1 multiplex serology assay and virus-like particle (VLP)-based ELISA. We evaluated the high-throughput GST-L1, which is increasingly used in epidemiologic research, as a measure of cumulative HPV infection and future immune protection among HPV-unvaccinated women. METHODS: We tested enrollment sera from participants in the control arm of the Costa Rica Vaccine Trial (n = 488) for HPV16 and HPV18 using GST-L1, VLP-ELISA, and two assays that measure neutralizing antibodies (cLIA and SEAP-NA). With statistical adjustment for sampling, we compared GST-L1 serostatus to established HPV seropositivity correlates and incident cervical HPV infection using odds ratios. We further compared GST-L1 to VLP-ELISA using pair-wise agreement statistics and by defining alternate assay cutoffs. RESULTS: Odds of HPV16 GST-L1 seropositivity increased with enrollment age (OR = 1.20 per year, 95%CI 1.03-1.40) and lifetime number of sexual partners (OR = 2.06 per partner, 95%CI 1.49-2.83), with similar results for HPV18. GST-L1 seropositivity did not indicate protection from incident infection over 4 years of follow-up (HPV16 adjusted OR = 1.72, 95%CI 0.95-3.13; HPV18 adjusted OR = 0.38, 95%CI 0.12-1.23). Seroprevalence by GST-L1 (HPV16 and HPV18, respectively) was 5.0% and 5.2%, compared to 19.4% and 23.8% by VLP-ELISA, giving positive agreement of 39.2% and 20.8%. Lowering GST-L1 seropositivity cutoffs improved GST-L1/VLP-ELISA positive agreement to 68.6% (HPV16) and 61.5% (HPV18). CONCLUSIONS: Our data support GST-L1 as a marker of cumulative HPV infection, but not immune protection. At lower seropositivity cutoffs, GST-L1 better approximates VLP-ELISA.

Impact of body size and physical activity during adolescence and adult life on overall and cause-specific mortality in a large cohort study from Iran.

We conducted this study to examine life-course body size and physical activity in relation to total and cause-specific mortality, which has not previously been studied in the low and middle-income countries in Asia. The Golestan Cohort Study is a population-based cohort in northeastern Iran in which 50,045 people above the age of 40 have been followed since 2004. Participants were shown a validated pictogram to assess body size at ages 15, 30, and the time of recruitment. Information on occupational physical activity at these ages was also collected. Subjects were followed up annually, and cause of death was determined. Cox regression models were adjusted for age at cohort start, smoking, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, place of residence, education, and opium use. Models for body size were also adjusted for physical activity at the same age, and vice versa. During a total of 252,740 person-years of follow-up (mean follow-up duration 5.1 ± 1.3 years) through December 2011, 2,529 of the cohort participants died. Larger body sizes at ages 15 or 30 in both sexes were associated with increased overall mortality. Cancer mortality was more strongly associated with adolescent obesity, and cardiovascular mortality with early adulthood body size. Weight gain between these ages was associated with cardiovascular mortality. Obese adolescents who lost weight still had increased mortality from all medical causes in both sexes. Physical activity during adolescence and early adulthood had no association with mortality, but at cohort baseline higher levels of activity were associated with reduced mortality. Mortality in this Middle-Eastern population was associated with obesity both during adolescence and early adult life.