Trends in health care financial burdens, 2001 to 2009.

CONTEXT: Over the past decade, health care spending increased faster than GDP and income, and decreasing affordability is cited as contributing to personal bankruptcies and as a reason that some of the nonelderly population is uninsured. We examined the trends in health care affordability over the past decade, measuring the financial burdens associated with health insurance premiums and out-of-pocket costs and highlighting implications of the Affordable Care Act for the future financial burdens of particular populations. METHODS: We used cross sections of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Household Component (MEPS-HC) from 2001 to 2009. We defined financial burden at the health insurance unit (HIU) level and calculated it as the ratio of expenditures on health care-employer-sponsored insurance coverage (ESI) and private nongroup premiums and out-of-pocket payments-to modified adjusted gross income. FINDINGS: The median health care financial burden grew on average by 2.7% annually and by 21.9% over the period. Using a range of definitions, the fraction of households facing high financial burdens increased significantly. For example, the share of HIUs with health care expenses exceeding 10% of income increased from 35.9% to 44.8%, a 24.8% relative increase. The share of the population in HIUs with health care financial burdens between 2% and 10% fell, and the share with burdens between 10% and 44% rose. CONCLUSIONS: We found a clear trend over the past decade toward an increasing share of household income devoted to health care. The ACA will affect health care spending for subgroups of the population differently. Several groups' burdens will likely decrease, including those becoming eligible for Medicaid or subsidized private insurance and those with expensive medical conditions. Those newly obtaining coverage might increase their health spending relative to income, but they will gain access to care and the ability to spread their expenditures over time, both of which have demonstrable economic value.

Black-White Disparities in Asthma Hospitalizations and ED Visits Among Medicaid-Enrolled Children.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Asthma is a common, potentially serious childhood chronic condition that disproportionately afflicts Black children. Hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits for asthma can often be prevented. Nearly half of children with asthma are covered by Medicaid, which should facilitate access to care to manage and treat symptoms. We provide new evidence on racial disparities in asthma hospitalizations and ED visits among Medicaid-enrolled children. METHODS: We used comprehensive Medicaid claims data from the Transformed Medicaid Statistical Information System. Our study population included 279 985 Medicaid-enrolled children with diagnosed asthma. We identified asthma hospitalizations and ED visits occurring in 2019. We estimated differences in the odds of asthma hospitalizations and ED visits for non-Hispanic Black versus non-Hispanic white children, adjusting for sex, age, Medicaid eligibility group, Medicaid plan type, state, and rurality. RESULTS: In 2019, among Black children with asthma, 1.2% had an asthma hospitalization and 8.0% had an asthma ED visit compared with 0.5% and 3.4% of white children with a hospitalization and ED visit, respectively. After adjusting for other characteristics, the rates for Black children were more than twice the rates for white children (hospitalization adjusted odds ratio 2.45, 95% confidence interval 2.23-2.69; ED adjusted odds ratio 2.42; 95% confidence interval 2.33-2.51). CONCLUSIONS: There are stark racial disparities in asthma hospitalizations and ED visits among Medicaid-enrolled children with asthma. To diminish these disparities, it will be important to implement solutions that address poor quality care, discriminatory treatment in health care settings, and the structural factors that disproportionately expose Black children to asthma triggers and access barriers.

Potential national and state medical care savings from primary disease prevention.

OBJECTIVES: We estimated national and state-level potential medical care cost savings achievable through modest reductions in the prevalence of several diseases associated with the same lifestyle-related risk factors. METHODS: Using Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Household Component data (2003-2005), we estimated the effects on medical spending over time of reductions in the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and related conditions amenable to primary prevention by comparing simulated counterfactual morbidity and medical care expenditures to actual disease and expenditure patterns. We produced state-level estimates of spending by using multivariate reweighting techniques. RESULTS: Nationally, we estimated that reducing diabetes and hypertension prevalence by 5% would save approximately $9 billion annually in the near term. With resulting reductions in comorbidities and selected related conditions, savings could rise to approximately $24.7 billion annually in the medium term. Returns were greatest in absolute terms for private payers, but greatest in percentage terms for public payers. State savings varied with demographic makeup and prevailing morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: Well-designed interventions that achieve improvements in lifestyle-related risk factors could result in sufficient savings in the short and medium term to substantially offset intervention costs.

The Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansions and Personal Finance.

Using a novel data set from a major credit bureau, we examine the early effects of the Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansions on personal finance. We analyze less common events such as personal bankruptcy, and more common occurrences such as medical collection balances, and change in credit scores. We estimate triple-difference models that compare individual outcomes across counties that expanded Medicaid versus counties that did not, and across expansion counties that had more uninsured residents versus those with fewer. Results demonstrate financial improvements in states that expanded their Medicaid programs as measured by improved credit scores, reduced balances past due as a percent of total debt, reduced probability of a medical collection balance of $1,000 or more, reduced probability of having one or more recent medical bills go to collections, reduction in the probability of experiencing a new derogatory balance of any type, reduced probability of incurring a new derogatory balance equal to $1,000 or more, and a reduction in the probability of a new bankruptcy filing.

Weathering, Drugs, and Whack-a-Mole: Fundamental and Proximate Causes of Widening Educational Inequity in U.S. Life Expectancy by Sex and Race, 1990-2015.

Discussion of growing inequity in U.S. life expectancy increasingly focuses on the popularized narrative that it is driven by a surge of "deaths of despair." Does this narrative fit the empirical evidence? Using census and Vital Statistics data, we apply life-table methods to calculate cause-specific years of life lost between ages 25 and 84 by sex and educational rank for non-Hispanic blacks and whites in 1990 and 2015. Drug overdoses do contribute importantly to widening inequity for whites, especially men, but trivially for blacks. The contribution of suicide to growing inequity is unremarkable. Cardiovascular disease, non-lung cancers, and other internal causes are key to explaining growing life expectancy inequity. Results underline the speculative nature of attempts to attribute trends in life-expectancy inequity to an epidemic of despair. They call for continued investigation of the possible weathering effects of tenacious high-effort coping with chronic stressors on the health of marginalized populations.

Measuring Recent Apparent Declines In Longevity: The Role Of Increasing Educational Attainment.

Independent researchers have reported an alarming decline in life expectancy after 1990 among US non-Hispanic whites with less than a high school education. However, US educational attainment rose dramatically during the twentieth century; thus, focusing on changes in mortality rates of those not completing high school means looking at a different, shrinking, and increasingly vulnerable segment of the population in each year. We analyzed US data to examine the robustness of earlier findings categorizing education in terms of relative rank in the overall distribution of each birth cohort, instead of by credentials such as high school graduation. Estimating trends in mortality for the bottom quartile, we found little evidence that survival probabilities declined dramatically. We conclude that widely publicized estimates of worsening mortality rates among non-Hispanic whites with low socioeconomic position are highly sensitive to how educational attainment is classified. However, non-Hispanic whites with low socioeconomic position, especially women, are not sharing in improving life expectancy, and disparities between US blacks and whites are entrenched. Findings underscore the urgency of an agenda to equitably disseminate new medical technologies and to deepen knowledge of social determinants of health and how that knowledge can be applied, to promote the objective of achieving population health equity.

Trends in late-life activity limitations in the United States: an update from five national surveys.

This article updates trends from five national U.S. surveys to determine whether the prevalence of activity limitations among the older population continued to decline in the first decade of the twenty-first century. Findings across studies suggest that personal care and domestic activity limitations may have continued to decline for those ages 85 and older from 2000 to 2008, but generally were flat since 2000 for those ages 65-84. Modest increases were observed for the 55- to 64-year-old group approaching late life, although prevalence remained low for this age group. Inclusion of the institutional population is important for assessing trends among those ages 85 and older in particular.

Among dual eligibles, identifying the highest-cost individuals could help in crafting more targeted and effective responses.

The nearly nine million people who receive Medicare and Medicaid benefits, known as dual eligibles, constitute one of the nation's most vulnerable and costly populations. Several initiatives authorized by the Affordable Care Act are intended to improve the health care delivered to dual eligibles and, at the same time, to achieve greater control of spending growth for the two government programs. We examined the 2007 costs and service use associated with dual eligibles. Although the population is indeed costly, we found nearly 40 percent of dual eligibles had lower average per capita spending than non-dual-eligible Medicare beneficiaries. In addition, we found that about 20 percent of dual eligibles accounted for more than 60 percent of combined Medicaid and Medicare spending on the dual-eligible population. But even among these high-cost dual eligibles, we found subgroups. For example, fewer than 1 percent of dual eligibles were in high-cost categories for both Medicare and Medicaid. These findings suggest that decision makers should tailor reform initiatives to account for subpopulations of dual eligibles, their costs, and their service use.

Undocumented immigrants, left out of health reform, likely to continue to grow as share of the uninsured.

The increase in undocumented immigration between 1999 and 2007 contributed to an increase in the number of uninsured people in the United States. During this period, the number of undocumented immigrants increased from an estimated 8.5 million to 11.8 million, leading to an estimated additional 1.8 million uninsured. These uninsured and undocumented immigrants were estimated to represent 27 percent of the overall increase of 6.9 million uninsured people during this period. Undocumented immigrants accounted for one in seven of the uninsured in 2007, up from one in eight in 1999. These undocumented immigrants will not be eligible for public insurance or any type of private coverage obtained through exchanges under the Affordable Care Act of 2010. As a result, members of this group will eventually constitute a larger percentage of the uninsured population, unless other policy actions are taken to provide for their coverage, or their immigration status is changed.