Neurofilament Light Chain and Risk of Stroke in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Biomarkers reflecting brain injury are not routinely used in risk assessment of stroke in atrial fibrillation (AF). Neurofilament light chain (NFL) is a novel biomarker released into blood after cerebral insults. We investigated the association between plasma concentrations of NFL, other biomarkers, and risk of stroke and death in patients with AF not receiving oral anticoagulation. METHODS: For this observational study, baseline plasma samples were available from 3077 patients with AF randomized to aspirin in ACTIVE A (Atrial Fibrillation Clopidogrel Trial With Irbesartan for Prevention of Vascular Events; 2003 to 2008) and AVERROES (Apixaban Versus Acetylsalicylic Acid [ASA] to Prevent Stroke in Atrial Fibrillation Patients Who Have Failed or Are Unsuitable for Vitamin K Antagonist Treatment; 2007 to 2009). Median follow-up was 1.5 years. NFL was analyzed with a Single Molecule Array (Simoa). Associations with outcomes (total stroke or systemic embolism, ischemic stroke, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death) were explored with Cox regression models. RESULTS: In the combined cohort, the median NFL level was 16.9 ng/L (interquartile range, 11.1-26.5 ng/L), the median age was 71 years, 58% were men, and 13% had a history of previous stroke. NFL was associated with older age, higher creatinine, lower body mass index, previous stroke, female sex, and diabetes but not cardiac rhythm. Higher NFL was associated with a higher risk of stroke or systemic embolism (n=206) independently of clinical characteristics (hazard ratio, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.10-1.46] per doubling of NFL) and other biomarkers (hazard ratio, 1.18 [95% CI, 1.01-1.37]) and including in patients without previous stroke (hazard ratio, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.02-1.48]). NFL was also independently associated with cardiovascular (n=219) and all-cause (n=311) death. The C index for stroke using only NFL was 0.642, on par with the currently used clinical risk scores. Addition of information on NFL improved discrimination in a model also including clinical information, NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, yielding a C index of 0.727. CONCLUSIONS: NFL reflects overt and covert episodes of cerebral ischemia and improves risk assessment of stroke and death in patients with AF without oral anticoagulation, including in patients without previous stroke. The combination of NFL with information on age, history of stroke, and other biomarkers should be explored as a future avenue for stroke risk assessments in patients with AF.

Efficacy and Safety of Non-Vitamin-K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulants Versus Warfarin Across the Spectrum of Body Mass Index and Body Weight: An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis of 4 Randomized Clinical Trials of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy and safety of non-vitamin-K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) across the spectrum of body mass index (BMI) and body weight (BW) remain uncertain. METHODS: We analyzed data from COMBINE AF (A Collaboration Between Multiple Institutions to Better Investigate Non-Vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulant Use in Atrial Fibrillation), which pooled patient-level data from the 4 pivotal randomized trials of NOAC versus warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation. The primary efficacy and safety outcomes were stroke or systemic embolic events (stroke/SEE) and major bleeding, respectively; secondary outcomes were ischemic stroke/SEE, intracranial hemorrhage, death, and the net clinical outcome (stroke/SEE, major bleeding, or death). Each outcome was examined across BMI and BW. Because few patients had a BMI <18.5 kg/m2 (n=598), the primary analyses were restricted to those with a BMI ≥18.5 kg/m2. RESULTS: Among 58 464 patients, the median BMI was 28.3 (interquartile range, 25.2-32.2) kg/m2, and the median BW was 81.0 (interquartile range, 70.0-94.3) kg. The event probability of stroke/SEE was lower at a higher BMI irrespective of treatment, whereas the probability of major bleeding was lower at a higher BMI with warfarin but relatively unchanged across BMI with NOACs. NOACs reduced stroke/SEE overall (adjusted hazard ratio [HRadj], 0.80 [95% CI, 0.73-0.88]; P<0.001), with a generally consistent effect across BMI (Ptrend across HRs, 0.48). NOACs also reduced major bleeding overall (HRadj, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.82-0.94]; P<0.001), but with attenuation of the benefit at a higher BMI (trend test across BMI [Ptrend], 0.003). The overall treatment effects of NOACs versus warfarin for secondary outcomes were consistent across BMI, with the exception of the net clinical outcome and death. While these outcomes were overall reduced with NOACs (net clinical outcome, HRadj, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.87-0.95]; P<0.001; death, HRadj, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.86-0.97]; P=0.003), these benefits were attenuated at higher BMI (Ptrend, 0.001 and 0.08, respectively). All findings were qualitatively similar when analyzed across BW. CONCLUSIONS: The treatment effect of NOACs versus warfarin in atrial fibrillation is generally consistent for stroke/SEE across the spectrum of BMI and BW, whereas the reduction in major bleeding is attenuated in those with higher BMI or BW. Death and the net clinical outcome are overall reduced with NOACs over warfarin, although there remain uncertainties for these outcomes at a very high BMI and BW.

Temporal biomarker concentration patterns during the early course of acute coronary syndrome.

OBJECTIVES: Biomarker concentrations and their changes during acute coronary syndrome (ACS) provide clinically useful information on pathophysiological processes, e.g. myocardial necrosis, hemodynamic stress and inflammation. However, current evidence on temporal biomarker patterns early during ACS is limited, and studies investigating multiple biomarkers are lacking. METHODS: We measured concentrations of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and I (hs-cTnI), NT-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, C-reactive protein, and growth-differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) in plasma samples obtained at randomization in ACS patients from the PLATelet inhibition and patient Outcomes (PLATO) trial. Linear regressions with interaction analyses were used to investigate the associations of biomarker concentrations with the time from symptom onset and to model temporal biomarker concentration patterns. RESULTS: The study population consisted of 16,944 patients (median age 62 years; 71.3 % males) with 6,853 (40.3 %) having ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and 10,141 (59.7 %) having non-ST-elevation ACS (NSTE-ACS). Concentrations of all biomarkers were associated with time from symptom onset (pinteraction<0.001), apart for GDF-15 (pinteraction=0.092). Concentration increases were more pronounced in STEMI compared to NSTE-ACS. Temporal biomarker patterns for hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI were different depending on sex whereas biomarker patterns for the other biomarkers were similar in cohorts defined by age and sex. CONCLUSIONS: Temporal concentration patterns differ for various biomarkers early during ACS, reflecting the variability in the activation and duration of different pathophysiological processes, and the amount of injured myocardium. Our data emphasize that the time elapsed from symptom onset should be considered for the interpretation of biomarker results in ACS.

Associations between psychosocial burden and prognostic biomarkers in patients with chronic coronary syndrome: a STABILITY substudy.

AIM: To investigate associations between psychosocial burden and biomarkers reflecting pathophysiological pathways in patients with chronic coronary syndrome. METHODS: Psychosocial (PS) factors were collected from self-assessed questionnaires and biomarkers representing inflammation (high-sensitivity [hs]-C-reactive protein [CRP], interleukin-6 [IL-6], lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 [Lp-PLA2]) and cardiac injury/stress (hs-troponin T [hs-TnT], N-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP]) were measured in 12,492 patients with chronic coronary syndrome in the STABILITY trial. Associations between level of each psychosocial factor (never-rarely (reference), sometimes, often-always) and biomarkers were evaluated using linear models with adjusted geometric mean ratios (GMR). A score comprising four factors ('feeling down', 'loss of interest', financial stress', 'living alone') that previously demonstrated association with cardiovascular (CV) outcome was created, and categorized into three levels: low, moderate and high PS burden. Associations between PS score and biomarkers were evaluated similarly. RESULTS: Greater PS burden was significantly associated with a gradual increase in inflammatory biomarkers (GMR [95% CI] for moderate vs low PS burden; and high vs low PS burden): hs-CRP (1.09 [1.04-1.14]; 1.12 [1.06-1.17]), IL-6 (1.05 [1.02-1.07]; 1.08 [1.05-1.11]), LpPLA2 (1.01 [1.00 - 1.02]; 1.02 [1.01-1.04]) and cardiac biomarkers hs-TnT (1.03 [1.01-1.06]; 1.06 [1.03-1.09]) and NT-proBNP (1.09 [1.04-1.13]; 1.21 [1.15-1.27]). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with chronic coronary syndrome, greater psychosocial burden was associated with increased levels of inflammatory and cardiac biomarkers. While this observational study does not establish causal nature of these associations, the findings suggest inflammation and cardiac injury/stress as plausible pathways linking psychosocial burden to an elevated CV risk, that needs to be further explored.

We studied the association between psychosocial factors and various circulating protein biomarkers, reflecting different underlying mechanisms of disease, with the hope of shedding light on the link between psychological factors like depression and stress and the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with chronic coronary syndrome. We analysed data from the global large-scale STABILITY trial, which included more than 12,000 patients with chronic coronary syndrome. Participants filled out a questionnaire assessing their level of psychosocial burden, including experiences of depressive symptoms, stress at home, at work and financial stress. Additionally, blood samples were collected in which biomarkers (NTproBNP, high-sensitive Troponin-T, Interleukin-6, CRP and LpPLA2) were analysed. Our findings revealed a significant association between higher psychosocial burden and increased concentrations of biomarkers in patients with chronic coronary syndrome. These biomarkers reflect both inflammatory processes and cardiac damage or dysfunction which could be potential disease mechanisms explaining the increased risk of adverse events in patients with chronic coronary syndrome and high psychosocial burden. Although causal relationships cannot be determined from this study, the findings suggest that inflammation and cardiac stress may play crucial roles in linking psychosocial factors to heightened cardiovascular risk in this patient population. These insights could pave the way for better understanding and managing cardiovascular health in individuals with chronic coronary syndrome, offering hope for more targeted interventions in the future.

Optimizing warfarin dosing for patients with atrial fibrillation using machine learning.

While novel oral anticoagulants are increasingly used to reduce risk of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation, vitamin K antagonists such as warfarin continue to be used extensively for stroke prevention across the world. While effective in reducing the risk of strokes, the complex pharmacodynamics of warfarin make it difficult to use clinically, with many patients experiencing under- and/or over- anticoagulation. In this study we employed a novel implementation of deep reinforcement learning to provide clinical decision support to optimize time in therapeutic International Normalized Ratio (INR) range. We used a novel semi-Markov decision process formulation of the Batch-Constrained deep Q-learning algorithm to develop a reinforcement learning model to dynamically recommend optimal warfarin dosing to achieve INR of 2.0-3.0 for patients with atrial fibrillation. The model was developed using data from 22,502 patients in the warfarin treated groups of the pivotal randomized clinical trials of edoxaban (ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48), apixaban (ARISTOTLE) and rivaroxaban (ROCKET AF). The model was externally validated on data from 5730 warfarin-treated patients in a fourth trial of dabigatran (RE-LY) using multilevel regression models to estimate the relationship between center-level algorithm consistent dosing, time in therapeutic INR range (TTR), and a composite clinical outcome of stroke, systemic embolism or major hemorrhage. External validation showed a positive association between center-level algorithm-consistent dosing and TTR (R2 = 0.56). Each 10% increase in algorithm-consistent dosing at the center level independently predicted a 6.78% improvement in TTR (95% CI 6.29, 7.28; p < 0.001) and a 11% decrease in the composite clinical outcome (HR 0.89; 95% CI 0.81, 1.00; p = 0.015). These results were comparable to those of a rules-based clinical algorithm used for benchmarking, for which each 10% increase in algorithm-consistent dosing independently predicted a 6.10% increase in TTR (95% CI 5.67, 6.54, p < 0.001) and a 10% decrease in the composite outcome (HR 0.90; 95% CI 0.83, 0.98, p = 0.018). Our findings suggest that a deep reinforcement learning algorithm can optimize time in therapeutic range for patients taking warfarin. A digital clinical decision support system to promote algorithm-consistent warfarin dosing could optimize time in therapeutic range and improve clinical outcomes in atrial fibrillation globally.

Repeated Measurement of the Novel Atrial Biomarker BMP10 (Bone Morphogenetic Protein 10) Refines Risk Stratification in Anticoagulated Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: Insights From the ARISTOTLE Trial.

BACKGROUND: BMP10 (bone morphogenic protein 10) has emerged as a novel biomarker associated with the risk of ischemic stroke and other outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The study aimed to determine if repeated BMP10 measurements improve prognostication of cardiovascular events in patients with AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: BMP10 was measured using a prototype Elecsys immunoassay in plasma samples collected at randomization and after 2 months in patients with AF randomized to apixaban or warfarin in the ARISTOTLE (Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation) trial (n=2878). Adjusted Cox-regression models were used to evaluate the association between 2-month BMP10 levels and outcomes. BMP10 levels increased by 7.8% (P<0.001) over 2 months. The baseline variables most strongly associated with BMP10 levels at 2 months were baseline BMP10 levels, body mass index, sex, age, creatinine, diabetes, warfarin treatment, and AF-rhythm. During median 1.8 years follow-up, 34 ischemic strokes/systemic embolism, 155 deaths, and 99 heart failure hospitalizations occurred. Comparing the third with the first sample quartile, higher BMP10 levels at 2 months were associated with higher risk of ischemic stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 1.33 [95% CI, 0.67-2.63], P=0.037), heart failure (HR, 1.91 [95% CI, 1.17-3.12], P=0.012) and all-cause death (HR, 1.61 [95% CI, 1.17-2.21], P<0.001). Adding BMP10 levels at 2 months on top of established risk factors and baseline BMP10 levels improved the C-indices for ischemic stroke/systemic embolism (from 0.73 to 0.75), heart failure hospitalization (0.76-0.77), and all-cause mortality (0.70-0.72), all P<0.05. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated levels of BMP10 at 2 months strengthened the associations with the risk of ischemic stroke, hospitalization for heart failure, and all-cause mortality. Repeated measurements of BMP10 may further refine risk stratification in patients with AF.

Cohort profile: the European Unified Registries On Heart Care Evaluation and Randomized Trials (EuroHeart)-acute coronary syndrome and percutaneous coronary intervention.

AIMS: The European Unified Registries On Heart Care Evaluation and Randomized Trials (EuroHeart) aims to improve the quality of care and clinical outcomes for patients with cardiovascular disease. The collaboration of acute coronary syndrome/percutaneous coronary intervention (ACS/PCI) registries is operational in seven vanguard European Society of Cardiology member countries. METHODS AND RESULTS: Adults admitted to hospitals with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) are included, and individual patient-level data collected and aligned according to the internationally agreed EuroHeart data standards for ACS/PCI. The registries provide up to 155 variables spanning patient demographics and clinical characteristics, in-hospital care, in-hospital outcomes, and discharge medications. After performing statistical analyses on patient data, participating countries transfer aggregated data to EuroHeart for international reporting. Between 1st January 2022 and 31st December 2022, 40 021 admissions (STEMI 46.7%, NSTEMI 53.3%) were recorded from 192 hospitals in the seven vanguard countries: Estonia, Hungary, Iceland, Portugal, Romania, Singapore, and Sweden. The mean age for the cohort was 67.9 (standard deviation 12.6) years, and it included 12 628 (31.6%) women. CONCLUSION: The EuroHeart collaboration of ACS/PCI registries prospectively collects and analyses individual data for ACS and PCI at a national level, after which aggregated results are transferred to the EuroHeart Data Science Centre. The collaboration will expand to other countries and provide continuous insights into the provision of clinical care and outcomes for patients with ACS and undergoing PCI. It will serve as a unique international platform for quality improvement, observational research, and registry-based clinical trials.

Cardiometabolic Co-morbidity Burden and Circulating Biomarkers in Patients With Chronic Coronary Disease in the ISCHEMIA Trials.

Cardiometabolic co-morbidities, diabetes (DM), hypertension (HTN), and obesity contribute to cardiovascular disease. Circulating biomarkers facilitate prognostication for patients with cardiovascular disease. We explored the relation between cardiometabolic co-morbidity burden in patients with chronic coronary disease and biomarkers of myocardial stretch, injury, inflammation, and platelet activity. We analyzed participants from the International Study of Comparative Health Effectiveness with Medical and Invasive Approaches (ISCHEMIA) trials biorepository with plasma biomarkers (N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, soluble CD40 ligand, and growth differentiation factor-15) and clinical risk factors (hemoglobin A1c [HbA1c], systolic blood pressure [SBP], and body mass index [BMI]) at baseline. We defined cardiometabolic co-morbidities as DM, HTN, and obesity at baseline. Co-morbidity burden is characterized by the number and severity of co-morbidities. Controlled co-morbidities were defined as HbA1c <7% for those with DM, SBP <130 mm Hg for those with HTN, and BMI <30 kg/m2. Severely uncontrolled was defined as HbA1c ≥8%, SBP ≥160 mm Hg, and BMI ≥35 kg/m2. We performed linear regression analyses to examine the association between co-morbidity burden and log-transformed biomarker levels, adjusting for age, gender, estimated glomerular filtration rate controlled for hemodialysis, and left ventricular ejection fraction. A total of 752 participants (mean age 66 years, 19% women, 84% White) were included in this analysis. Self-reported Black race, current smokers, history of myocardial infarction, and heart failure had a greater cardiometabolic co-morbidity burden. The presence of ≥1 severely uncontrolled co-morbidity was associated with significantly higher baseline levels of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and growth differentiation factor-15 than participants with no co-morbidities. In conclusion, increasing cardiometabolic co-morbidity burden in patients with chronic coronary disease is associated with higher levels of circulating biomarkers of myocardial injury and inflammation.