Association Between a National Behavioral Weight Management Program and Veterans Affairs Health Expenditures.

OBJECTIVE: The association between participation in a behavioral weight intervention and health expenditures has not been well characterized. We compared Veterans Affairs (VA) expenditures of individuals participating in MOVE!, a VA behavioral weight loss program, and matched comparators 2 years before and 2 years after MOVE! initiation. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of Veterans who had one or more MOVE! visits in 2008-2017 who were matched contemporaneously to up to 3 comparators with overweight or obesity through sequential stratification on an array of patient characteristics, including sex. Baseline patient characteristics were compared between the two cohorts through standardized mean differences. VA expenditures in the 2 years before MOVE! initiation and 2 years after initiation were modeled using generalized estimating equations with a log link and distribution with variance proportional to the standard deviation (gamma). RESULTS: MOVE! participants (n=499,696) and comparators (n=1,336,172) were well-matched, with an average age of 56, average body mass index of 35, and similar total VA expenditures in the fiscal year before MOVE! initiation ($9662 for MOVE! participants and $10,072 for comparators, standardized mean difference=-0.019). MOVE! participants had total expenditures that were statistically lower than matched comparators in the 6 months after initiation but modestly higher in the 6 months to 2 years after initiation, though differences were small in magnitude (1.0%-1.6% differences). CONCLUSIONS: The VA's system-wide behavioral weight intervention did not realize meaningful short-term health care cost savings for participants.

Identifying Patterns of Primary Care In-Person and Telemedicine Use in the Veterans Health Administration: A Latent Class Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The Veterans Health Administration increased synchronous telemedicine (video and telephone visits) in primary care in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to determine veteran use patterns of in-person and telemedicine primary care when all modalities were available. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort analysis. We performed a latent class analysis of primary care visits over a 1-year period to identify veteran subgroup (i.e., class) membership based on amount of primary care use and modality used. Then, we used multinomial logistic regression with a categorical outcome to identify patient characteristics associated with class identification. PARTICIPANTS: A random national sample consisting of 564,580 primary care empaneled veterans in June 2021. MAIN MEASURES: Latent class membership. KEY RESULTS: We identified three latent classes: those with few primary care visits that were predominantly telephone-based (45%), intermediate number of visits of all modalities (50%), and many visits of all modalities (5%). In an adjusted model, characteristics associated with the "few" visits class, compared to the intermediate class, were older age, male sex, White race, further driving distance to primary care, higher Gagne, optimal internet speed, and unmarried status (OR 1.002, 1.52, 1.13, 1.004, 1.04, 1.05, 1.06, respectively; p < .05). Characteristics associated with membership in the "many" visits class, compared to the intermediate class, were Hispanic race, higher JEN Frailty Index and Gagne (OR 1.12, 1.11, 1.02, respectively; p < .05), and higher comorbidity by Care Assessment Need score quartile (Q2 1.73, Q3 2.80, Q4 4.12; p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Veterans accessing primary care in-person or via telemedicine do so primarily in three ways: (1) few visits, predominantly telephone; (2) intermediate visits, all modalities, (3) many visits, all modalities. We found no groups of veterans receiving a majority of primary care through video.

Real World Use of Anti-Obesity Medications and Weight Change in Veterans.

BACKGROUND: Anti-obesity medications (AOMs) can be initiated in conjunction with participation in the VA national behavioral weight management program, MOVE!, to help achieve clinically meaningful weight loss. OBJECTIVE: To compare weight change between Veterans who used AOM + MOVE! versus MOVE! alone and examine AOM use, duration, and characteristics associated with longer duration of use. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using VA electronic health records. PARTICIPANTS: Veterans with overweight or obesity who participated in MOVE! from 2008-2017. MAIN MEASURES: Weight change from baseline was estimated using marginal structural models up to 24 months after MOVE! initiation. The probability of longer duration of AOM use (≥ 180 days) was estimated via a generalized linear mixed model. RESULTS: Among MOVE! participants, 8,517 (1.6%) used an AOM within 24 months after MOVE! initiation with a median of 90 days of cumulative supply. AOM + MOVE! users achieved greater weight loss than MOVE! alone users at 6 (3.2% vs. 1.6%, p < 0.001), 12 (3.4% vs. 1.4%, p < 0.001), and 24 months (2.7% vs. 1.5%, p < 0.001), and had a greater probability of achieving ≥ 5% weight loss at 6 (38.8% vs. 26.0%, p < 0.001), 12 (43.1% vs. 28.4%, p < 0.001), and 24 months (40.4% vs. 33.3%, p < 0.001). Veterans were more likely to have ≥ 180 days of supply if they were older, exempt from medication copays, used other medications with significant weight-gain, significant weight-loss, or modest weight-loss side effects, or resided in the West North Central or Pacific regions. Veterans were less likely to have ≥ 180 days of AOM supply if they had diabetes or initiated MOVE! later in the study period. CONCLUSIONS: AOM use following MOVE! initiation was uncommon, and exposure was time-limited. AOM + MOVE! was associated with a higher probability of achieving clinically significant weight loss than MOVE! alone.

Defining and Improving Outcomes Measurement for Virtual Care: Report from the VHA State-of-the-Art Conference on Virtual Care.

Virtual care, including synchronous and asynchronous telehealth, remote patient monitoring, and the collection and interpretation of patient-generated health data (PGHD), has the potential to transform healthcare delivery and increase access to care. The Veterans Health Administration (VHA) Office of Health Services Research and Development (HSR&D) convened a State-of-the-Art (SOTA) Conference on Virtual Care to identify future virtual care research priorities. Participants were divided into three workgroups focused on virtual care access, engagement, and outcomes. In this article, we report the findings of the Outcomes Workgroup. The group identified virtual care outcome areas with sufficient evidence, areas in need of additional research, and areas that are particularly well-suited to be studied within VHA. Following a rigorous process of literature review and consensus, the group focused on four questions: (1) What outcomes of virtual care should we be measuring and how should we measure them?; (2) how do we choose the "right" care modality for the "right" patient?; (3) what are potential consequences of virtual care on patient safety?; and (4) how can PGHD be used to benefit provider decision-making and patient self-management?. The current article outlines key conclusions that emerged following discussion of these questions, including recommendations for future research.

Patient Enrollment Growth and Burnout in Primary Care at the Veterans Health Administration.

BACKGROUND: Patient enrollment levels at Veterans Health Administration (VHA) facilities change based on Veteran demand for care, potentially affecting demands on staff. Effects on burnout in the primary care workforce associated with increases or decreases in enrollment are unknown. OBJECTIVE: Estimate associations between patient enrollment and burnout. DESIGN: In this serial cross-sectional study, VHA patient enrollment and workforce data from 2014 to 2018 were linked to burnout estimates for 138 VHA facilities. The VHA's annual All Employee Survey provided burnout estimates. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 82,421 responses to the 2014-2018 All Employee Surveys by primary care providers (PCPs), including physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants; nurses; clinical associates; and administrative clerks were included. Respondents identified as patient-aligned care team members. MAIN MEASURES: Independent variables were (1) the ratio of enrollment to PCPs at VHA facilities and (2) the year-over-year change in enrollment per PCP. Burnout was measured as the annual proportion of staff at VHA facilities who reported emotional exhaustion and/or depersonalization. Each primary care role was analyzed independently. KEY RESULTS: Overall enrollment decreased from 1553 enrollees per PCP in 2014 to 1442 enrollees per PCP in 2018 across VHA facilities. Forty-three facilities experienced increased enrollment (mean of 1524 enrollees/PCP in 2014 to 1668 in 2018) and 95 facilities experienced decreased enrollment (mean of 1566 enrollees/PCP in 2014 to 1339 in 2018). Burnout decreased for all primary care roles. PCP burnout was highest, decreasing from a facility-level mean of 51.7% in 2014 to 43.8% in 2018. Enrollment was not significantly associated with burnout for any role except nurses, for whom a 1% year-over-year increase in enrollment was associated with a 0.2 percentage point increase in burnout (95% CI: 0.1 to 0.3). CONCLUSIONS: Studies assessing changes in organizational-level predictors are rare in burnout research. Patient enrollment predicted burnout only among nurses in primary care.

BMI Trends for Veterans Up to 10 Years After VA Enrollment Following Military Discharge.

BACKGROUND: Obesity (body mass index [BMI]≥30kg/m2) among US adults has tripled over the past 45 years, but it is unclear how this population-level weight change has occurred. OBJECTIVE: We sought to identify distinct long-term BMI trajectories and examined associations with demographic and clinical characteristics. DESIGN: The design was latent trajectory modeling over 10 years of a retrospective cohort. Subgroups were identified via latent class growth mixture models, separately by sex. Weighted multinomial logistic regressions identified factors associated with subgroup membership. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were a retrospective cohort of 292,331 males and 62,898 females enrolled in VA. MAIN MEASURES: The main outcome measure was 6-month average VA-measured BMI over the course of 10 years. Additional electronic health record measures on demographic, clinical, and services utilization characteristics were also used to characterize latent trajectories. KEY RESULTS: Four trajectories were identified for men and for women, corresponding to standard BMI categories "normal weight" (BMI <25), "overweight" (BMI 25-29.99), and "with obesity" (BMI ≥30): "normal weight" and increasing (males: 28.4%; females: 22.8%), "overweight" and increasing (36.4%; 35.6%), "with obesity" and increasing (33.6%; 40.0%), and "with obesity" and stable (males: 1.6%) or decreasing (females: 1.6%). Race, ethnicity, comorbidities, mental health diagnoses, and mental health service utilization discriminated among classes. CONCLUSIONS: BMI in the 10 years following VA enrollment increased modestly. VA should continue prioritizing weight management interventions to the large number of veterans with obesity upon VA enrollment, because the majority remain with obesity.

Design and analysis of outcomes following SARS-CoV-2 infection in veterans.

BACKGROUND: Understanding how SARS-CoV-2 infection impacts long-term patient outcomes requires identification of comparable persons with and without infection. We report the design and implementation of a matching strategy employed by the Department of Veterans Affairs' (VA) COVID-19 Observational Research Collaboratory (CORC) to develop comparable cohorts of SARS-CoV-2 infected and uninfected persons for the purpose of inferring potential causative long-term adverse effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Veteran population. METHODS: In a retrospective cohort study, we identified VA health care system patients who were and were not infected with SARS-CoV-2 on a rolling monthly basis. We generated matched cohorts within each month utilizing a combination of exact and time-varying propensity score matching based on electronic health record (EHR)-derived covariates that can be confounders or risk factors across a range of outcomes. RESULTS: From an initial pool of 126,689,864 person-months of observation, we generated final matched cohorts of 208,536 Veterans infected between March 2020-April 2021 and 3,014,091 uninfected Veterans. Matched cohorts were well-balanced on all 39 covariates used in matching after excluding patients for: no VA health care utilization; implausible age, weight, or height; living outside of the 50 states or Washington, D.C.; prior SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis per Medicare claims; or lack of a suitable match. Most Veterans in the matched cohort were male (88.3%), non-Hispanic (87.1%), white (67.2%), and living in urban areas (71.5%), with a mean age of 60.6, BMI of 31.3, Gagne comorbidity score of 1.4 and a mean of 2.3 CDC high-risk conditions. The most common diagnoses were hypertension (61.4%), diabetes (34.3%), major depression (32.2%), coronary heart disease (28.5%), PTSD (25.5%), anxiety (22.5%), and chronic kidney disease (22.5%). CONCLUSION: This successful creation of matched SARS-CoV-2 infected and uninfected patient cohorts from the largest integrated health system in the United States will support cohort studies of outcomes derived from EHRs and sample selection for qualitative interviews and patient surveys. These studies will increase our understanding of the long-term outcomes of Veterans who were infected with SARS-CoV-2.

Full practice authority and burnout among primary care nurse practitioners.

BACKGROUND: Full practice authority (FPA) improves clinical autonomy for nurse practitioners (NPs). Autonomy may reduce burnout. PURPOSE: Estimate the effect of changing from reduced or restricted practice authority to FPA on NP burnout. METHODS: In this quasi-experimental study, we compared NP burnout before (2016) and after (2018) a Veterans Health Administration (VHA) regulation authorized NP FPA. Burnout proportions were estimated for VHA facilities by aggregating responses to the VHA's All Employee Survey from 1,352 primary care NPs. DISCUSSION: Seventy-seven percent of facilities changed to FPA postregulation. Burnout was six points lower among NPs in facilities that changed to FPA compared to facilities that had FPA prior to the regulation; however, this association was not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: NPs are increasingly working under independent practice. While changing to FPA did not reduce NP burnout, this association may vary by health care setting or when burnout is measured for individuals or teams.

How Did Veterans' Reliance on Veterans Health Administration Outpatient Care Change After Expansion of the Veterans Community Care Program?

BACKGROUND: The Veterans Community Care Program (VCCP) aims to address access constraints in the Veterans Health Administration (VA) by reimbursing care from non-VA community providers. Little existing research explores how veterans' choice of VA versus VCCP providers has evolved as a significant VCCP expansion in 2014 as part of the Veterans Access, Choice, and Accountability Act. OBJECTIVES: We examined changes in reliance on VA for primary care (PC), mental health (MH), and specialty care (SC) among VCCP-eligible veterans. RESEARCH DESIGN: We linked VA administrative data with VCCP claims to retrospectively examine utilization during calendar years 2016-2018. SUBJECTS: 1.78 million veterans enrolled in VA before 2013 and VCCP-eligible in 2016 due to limited VA capacity or travel hardship. MEASURES: We measured reliance as the proportion of total annual outpatient (VA+VCCP) visits occurring in VA for PC, MH, and SC. RESULTS: Of the 26.1 million total outpatient visits identified, 45.6% were for MH, 29.9% for PC, and 24.4% for SC. Over the 3 years, 83.2% of veterans used any VA services, 23.8% used any VCCP services, and 20.0% were dual VA-VCCP users. Modest but statistically significant declines in reliance were observed from 2016-2018 for PC (94.5%-92.2%), and MH (97.8%-96.9%), and a more significant decline was observed for SC (88.5%-79.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Veterans who have the option of selecting between VA or VCCP providers continued using VA for most of their outpatient care in the initial years after the 2014 VCCP expansion.

Identifying and Prioritizing Workplace Climate Predictors of Burnout Among VHA Primary Care Physicians.

OBJECTIVE: Burnout, or job-related stress, affects more than half of all US physicians, with primary care physicians (PCPs) experiencing some of the highest rates in medicine. Our study analyzes national survey data to identify and prioritize workplace climate predictors of burnout among PCPs within a large integrated health system. DESIGN: Observational study of annual survey data from the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) All Employee Survey (AES) for 2013-2017. AES response rate ranged from 56 to 60% during the study period. Independent and dependent variables were measured from separate random samples. In total, 8,456 individual-level responses among PCPs at 110 VHA practice sites were aggregated at the facility level by reporting year. We used the semi-automated LASSO procedure to identify workplace climate measures that were more influential in predicting burnout and assessed relative importance using the Shapely value decomposition. PARTICIPANTS: VHA employees that self-identify as PCPs. MAIN MEASURES: Dependent variables included two dichotomous measures of burnout: emotional exhaustion and depersonalization. Independent measures included 30 survey measures related to dimensions of workplace climate (e.g., workload, leadership, satisfaction). RESULTS: We identified seven influential workplace climate predictors of emotional exhaustion and nine predictors of depersonalization. With few exceptions, higher agreement/satisfaction scores for predictors were associated with a lower likelihood of burnout. The majority of explained variation in emotional exhaustion was attributable to perceptions of workload (32.6%), organization satisfaction (28.2%), and organization support (19.4%). The majority of explained variation in depersonalization was attributable to workload (25.3%), organization satisfaction (22.9%), and connection to VHA mission (20.7%). CONCLUSION: Identifying the relative importance of workplace climate is important for the allocation of health organization resources to mitigate and prevent burnout within the PCP workplace. In a context of limited resources, efforts to reduce perceived workload and improve organization satisfaction may represent the biggest leverage points for health organizations to address physician burnout.

Events Associated With Changes in Reliance on the Veterans Health Administration Among Medicare-eligible Veterans.

OBJECTIVES: We can learn something about how Veterans value the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) versus community providers by observing Veterans' choices between VHA and Medicare providers after they turn 65. For a cohort of Veterans who were newly age-eligible for Medicare, we estimated the change in VHA reliance (VHA outpatient visits divided by total VHA and Medicare visits) associated with specific events: receiving a life-threatening diagnosis, having a Medicare-paid hospitalization, or moving further from the VHA. RESEARCH DESIGN: A longitudinal cohort study of VHA and Medicare administrative data. SUBJECTS: A total of 5932 VHA users who completed a health survey in 1999 and became age-eligible for Medicare from 1998 to 2000 were followed through 2016. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: More Veterans chose to rely on the VHA than Medicare (64% vs. 36.%). For a VHA-reliant Veteran, a Medicare-paid hospital stay was associated with a decrease of 7.8 percentage points (pps) (P<0.001) in VHA reliance in the subsequent 12 months, but by 36 months reliance increased to near prehospitalization levels (-1.5 pps; P=0.138). Moving further from the VHA, or receiving a diagnosis of cancer, heart failure, or renal failure had no significant association with subsequent VHA reliance; however, a diagnosis of dementia was associated with a decrease in VHA reliance (-8.6 pps; P=0.026). CONCLUSIONS: A significant majority of newly Medicare-eligible VHA users voted with their feet in favor of sustaining the VHA as a provider of comprehensive medical care for Veterans. These VHA-reliant Veterans maintained their reliance even after receiving a life-threatening diagnosis, and after experiencing Medicare-provided hospital care.

Association of the Patient-Centered Medical Home Implementation with Chronic Disease Quality in Patients with Multimorbidity.

BACKGROUND: The patient-centered medical home (PCMH) was established in part to improve chronic disease management, yet evidence is limited for effects on patients with multimorbidity. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association of Patient-Aligned Care Team (PACT) implementation, the Veterans Health Administration (VA) PCMH model, and care quality for multimorbid patients enrolled in VA primary care from 2012 to 2014. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort. PATIENTS: 318,764 multimorbid (> 3 chronic diseases) patients receiving care in 917 clinics. MAIN MEASURES: PCMH implementation was measured using the PACT Implementation Progress Index (PI2) for clinics in 2012. The PI2 is a validated composite measure of administrative and survey data with higher scores associated with greater care quality. Quality outcomes from 2013 to 2014 were assessed from External Peer Review Program (EPRP) metrics. Outcomes included preventative care, chronic disease management, and mental health and substance use metrics. We used generalized estimating equations to model associations adjusting for patient and clinic characteristics. We also examined associations for a subgroup with > 5 chronic diseases. KEY RESULTS: For one-third of metrics (5/15), greater implementation of PACT in 2012 was associated with higher predicted probability of meeting the quality metric in 2013-2014. This association persisted for only two metrics (diabetic glycemic control, P < 0.001; lipid control in ischemic heart disease, P = 0.02) among patients with > 5 chronic diseases. CONCLUSIONS: Multimorbid patients engaged in care from clinics with higher PCMH implementation received higher quality care across several quality domains, but this association was reduced in patients with > 5 chronic diseases.

Association of the Implementation of the Patient-Centered Medical Home with Quality of Life in Patients with Multimorbidity.

BACKGROUND: The patient-centered medical home (PCMH) has clinical benefits for chronic disease care, but the association with patient-reported outcomes such as health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is unexplored in patients with multimorbidity (two or more chronic diseases). OBJECTIVE: To examine if greater clinic-level PCMH implementation was associated with higher HRQoL in multimorbid adults. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Twenty-two thousand ninety-five multimorbid patients who received primary care at 944 Veterans Health Administration (VHA) clinics. MAIN MEASURES: Our exposure was the Patient Aligned Care Team Implementation Progress Index (PI2) for the clinic in 2012, a previously validated composite measure of PCMH implementation. Higher PI2 scores indicate better performance within eight PCMH domains. Outcomes were patient-reported HRQoL measured by the physical and mental component scores (PCS and MCS) from the Short Form-12 patient experiences survey in 2013-2014. Interaction of the outcomes with total hospitalizations and primary care visit count was also examined. Generalized estimating equations were used for main models after adjusting for patient and clinic characteristics. RESULTS: The cohort average age was 68 years, mostly male (96%), and had an average of 4.4 chronic diagnoses. Compared with patients seen at the lowest scoring clinics for PCMH implementation, care in the highest scoring clinics was associated with a higher adjusted marginal mean PCS (42.3 (95% CI 41.3-43.4) versus 40.3 (95% CI 39.1-41.5), P = 0.01), but a lower MCS (35.2 (95% CI 34.4-36.1) versus 36.0 (95% CI 35.3-36.8), P = 0.17). Patients with prior hospitalizations seen in clinics with higher compared with lower PI2 scores had a 2.7 point greater MCS (95% CI 0.6-4.8; P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Multimorbid patients seen in clinics with greater PCMH implementation reported higher physical HRQoL, but lower mental HRQoL. The association between PCMH implementation and mental HRQoL may depend on complex interactions with disease severity and prior hospitalizations.

National Burnout Trends Among Physicians Working in the Department of Veterans Affairs.

BACKGROUND: Heterogeneity of existing physician burnout studies impairs analyses of longitudinal trends, geographic distribution, and organizational factors impacting physician burnout. The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) is one of the largest integrated healthcare systems in the USA, offering a unique opportunity to study burnout across VA sites and time. OBJECTIVE: To characterize longitudinal burnout trends of VA physicians and assess organizational characteristics and geographic distribution associated with physician burnout. DESIGN: Longitudinal study of the VA All Employee Survey during 2013-2017. PARTICIPANTS: Self-identified physicians practicing in one of nine clinical service areas at 140 VA sites nationwide. MAIN MEASURES: We identified burnout using a validated definition adapted from the Maslach Burnout Inventory and characterized burnout trends for physicians in different clinical service areas. We used clustering analysis to categorize sites based on their burnout rates over time, and compared organizational characteristics and geographic distribution of high, medium, and low burnout categories. KEY RESULTS: We identified 40,382 physician responses from 140 VA sites. Mean burnout rates across all physicians ranged from 34.3% in 2013 to a high of 39.0% in 2014. Primary care physicians had the highest burnout. High burnout sites were more likely to be rural and non-teaching, have lower complexity (i.e., offer fewer advanced clinical services), and have fewer unique patients per site. CONCLUSIONS: VA physician burnout was lower than previously described in many non-VA studies and was relatively stable over time. These findings may be due to unique characteristics of the VA practice environment. Nonetheless, with over a third of VA physicians reporting burnout, organizational interventions are needed. Primary care physicians and those practicing at small, rural sites have higher rates of burnout and may warrant more focused attention. Our results can guide targeted interventions to promote VA physician well-being and inform efforts to address burnout in diverse clinical settings.

Comparable, but distinct: Perceptions of primary care provided by physicians and nurse practitioners in full and restricted practice authority states.

AIMS: To understand patients' and providers' perceptions of primary care delivered by nurse practitioners (NPs) in the Veterans Affairs Healthcare System. DESIGN: Qualitative exploratory study (in convergent mixed-methods design). METHODS: Semi-structured interviews in 2016 with primary care providers and patients from facilities in states with full and restricted practice authority for NPs. Patient sample based on reassignment to: (a) a NP; or (b) a different physician following an established physician relationship. Data were analysed using content analysis. RESULTS: We interviewed 28 patients, 17 physicians and 14 NPs. We found: (a) NPs provided more holistic care than physicians; (b) patients were satisfied with NPs; and (c) providers' professional experience outweighed provider type. CONCLUSIONS: Patients' preferences for NPs (compared with prior physicians) contributed to perceptions of patient centredness. Similarities in providers' perceptions suggest NPs and physicians are both viable providers for primary care. IMPACT: Nurse Practitioners (NPs): practice authority Veterans Affairs Health care: nurse practitioners will continue to be a viable resource for primary care delivery United States Health care: challenges notions patients may not be satisfied with care provided by NPs and supports expanding their use to provide much-needed access to primary care services; expanding Full Practice Authority would allow states to provide acceptable primary care without diminishing patient or provider experiences.

Predicting Primary Care Use Among Patients in a Large Integrated Health System: The Role of Patient Experience Measures.

OBJECTIVE: Most Veterans Affairs (VA) Health Care System enrollees age 65+ also have the option of obtaining care through Medicare. Reliance upon VA varies widely and there is a need to optimize its prediction in an era of expanding choice for veterans to obtain care within or outside of VA. We examined whether survey-based patient-reported experiences improved prediction of VA reliance. METHODS: VA and Medicare claims in 2013 were linked to construct VA reliance (proportion of all face-to-face primary care visits), which was dichotomized (=1 if reliance >50%). We predicted reliance in 83,143 Medicare-eligible veterans as a function of 61 baseline characteristics in 2012 from claims and the 2012 Survey of Healthcare Experiences of Patients. We estimated predictive performance using the cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, and assessed variable importance using the Shapley value decomposition. RESULTS: In 2012, 68.9% were mostly VA reliant. The AUROC for the model including claims-based predictors was 0.882. Adding patient experience variables increased AUROC to 0.890. The pseudo R for the full model was 0.400. Baseline reliance and patient experiences accounted for 72.0% and 11.1% of the explained variation in reliance. Patient experiences related to the accessibility of outpatient services were among the most influential predictors of reliance. CONCLUSION: The addition of patient experience variables slightly increased predictive performance. Understanding the relative importance of patient experience factors is critical for informing what VA reform efforts should be prioritized following the passage of the 2018 MISSION Act.

Patient-Reported Access in the Patient-Centered Medical Home and Avoidable Hospitalizations: an Observational Analysis of the Veterans Health Administration.

BACKGROUND: The Patient-Centered Medical Home (PCMH) has emphasized timely access to primary care, often by using non-traditional modes of delivery, such as care in person after-hours or by phone during or after normal hours. Limited data exists on whether improving patient-reported access with these service types reduces hospitalization. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association of patient-reported access to primary care within the Veteran Health Administration (VHA) via five service types and hospitalizations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs). DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study, using multivariable logistic regression adjusting for patient demographics, comorbidity, characteristics of patients' area of residence, and clinic-level random effects. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 69,710 VHA primary care patients who responded to the 2012 Survey of Healthcare Experiences of Patients (SHEP), PCMH module. MAIN MEASURES: Survey questions captured patients' ability to obtain care from VHA for five service types: routine care, immediate care, after-hours care, care by phone during regular office hours, and care by phone after normal hours. Outcomes included binary measures of hospitalization for overall, acute, and chronic ACSCs in 2013, identified in VHA administrative data and Medicare fee-for-service claims. KEY RESULTS: Patients who reported "always" able to obtain after-hours care compared to "never" were less likely to be hospitalized for chronic ACSCs (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.44-0.89, p = 0.009). Patients reporting "usually" getting care by phone during regular hours were more likely have a hospitalization for chronic ACSC (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.03-2.17, p = 0.034). Experiences with routine care, immediate care, and care by phone after-hours demonstrated no significant association with hospitalization for ACSCs. CONCLUSIONS: Improving patients' ability to obtain after-hours care was associated with fewer hospitalizations for chronic ACSCs, while access to care by phone during regular hours was associated with more hospitalizations. Health systems should consider the benefits, including reduced hospitalizations for chronic ACSCs, against the costs of implementing each of these PCMH services.

Spillover Effects of Massachusetts Health Reform on Mental Health Use by VA and Medicare Dual Enrollees.

Older veterans can obtain care from the Veterans Affairs Health System (VA), Medicare or both. We examined whether their use of mental health care was impacted by capacity effects stemming from younger, uninsured veterans' enrolling in VA to satisfy the individual mandate within Massachusetts Health Reform (MHR). Using administrative data, we applied a difference-in-difference approach to compare pre-post changes in mental health use following MHR implementation. Findings indicated MHR was associated with increases in use through Medicare and the probability of dual VA-Medicare use. These results provide support for the possibility that limited capacity led to care seeking outside VA.

Identifying Latent Subgroups of High-Risk Patients Using Risk Score Trajectories.

OBJECTIVE: Many healthcare systems employ population-based risk scores to prospectively identify patients at high risk of poor outcomes, but it is unclear whether single point-in-time scores adequately represent future risk. We sought to identify and characterize latent subgroups of high-risk patients based on risk score trajectories. STUDY DESIGN: Observational study of 7289 patients discharged from Veterans Health Administration (VA) hospitals during a 1-week period in November 2012 and categorized in the top 5th percentile of risk for hospitalization. METHODS: Using VA administrative data, we calculated weekly risk scores using the validated Care Assessment Needs model, reflecting the predicted probability of hospitalization. We applied the non-parametric k-means algorithm to identify latent subgroups of patients based on the trajectory of patients' hospitalization probability over a 2-year period. We then compared baseline sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, health service use, and social instability markers between identified latent subgroups. RESULTS: The best-fitting model identified two subgroups: moderately high and persistently high risk. The moderately high subgroup included 65% of patients and was characterized by moderate subgroup-level hospitalization probability decreasing from 0.22 to 0.10 between weeks 1 and 66, then remaining constant through the study end. The persistently high subgroup, comprising the remaining 35% of patients, had a subgroup-level probability increasing from 0.38 to 0.41 between weeks 1 and 52, and declining to 0.30 at study end. Persistently high-risk patients were older, had higher prevalence of social instability and comorbidities, and used more health services. CONCLUSIONS: On average, one third of patients initially identified as high risk stayed at very high risk over a 2-year follow-up period, while risk for the other two thirds decreased to a moderately high level. This suggests that multiple approaches may be needed to address high-risk patient needs longitudinally or intermittently.