Mortality risk prediction of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein in suspected acute coronary syndrome: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence on the use of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) as a biomarker for selecting patients for advanced cardiovascular (CV) therapies in the modern era. The prognostic value of mildly elevated hsCRP beyond troponin in a large real-world cohort of unselected patients presenting with suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is unknown. We evaluated whether a mildly elevated hsCRP (up to 15 mg/L) was associated with mortality risk, beyond troponin level, in patients with suspected ACS. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study based on the National Institute for Health Research Health Informatics Collaborative data of 257,948 patients with suspected ACS who had a troponin measured at 5 cardiac centres in the United Kingdom between 2010 and 2017. Patients were divided into 4 hsCRP groups (<2, 2 to 4.9, 5 to 9.9, and 10 to 15 mg/L). The main outcome measure was mortality within 3 years of index presentation. The association between hsCRP levels and all-cause mortality was assessed using multivariable Cox regression analysis adjusted for age, sex, haemoglobin, white cell count (WCC), platelet count, creatinine, and troponin. Following the exclusion criteria, there were 102,337 patients included in the analysis (hsCRP <2 mg/L (n = 38,390), 2 to 4.9 mg/L (n = 27,397), 5 to 9.9 mg/L (n = 26,957), and 10 to 15 mg/L (n = 9,593)). On multivariable Cox regression analysis, there was a positive and graded relationship between hsCRP level and mortality at baseline, which remained at 3 years (hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) of 1.32 (1.18 to 1.48) for those with hsCRP 2.0 to 4.9 mg/L and 1.40 (1.26 to 1.57) and 2.00 (1.75 to 2.28) for those with hsCRP 5 to 9.9 mg/L and 10 to 15 mg/L, respectively. This relationship was independent of troponin in all suspected ACS patients and was further verified in those who were confirmed to have an ACS diagnosis by clinical coding. The main limitation of our study is that we did not have data on underlying cause of death; however, the exclusion of those with abnormal WCC or hsCRP levels >15 mg/L makes it unlikely that sepsis was a major contributor. CONCLUSIONS: These multicentre, real-world data from a large cohort of patients with suspected ACS suggest that mildly elevated hsCRP (up to 15 mg/L) may be a clinically meaningful prognostic marker beyond troponin and point to its potential utility in selecting patients for novel treatments targeting inflammation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov - NCT03507309.

Invasive versus non-invasive management of older patients with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (SENIOR-NSTEMI): a cohort study based on routine clinical data.

BACKGROUND: Previous trials suggest lower long-term risk of mortality after invasive rather than non-invasive management of patients with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), but the trials excluded very elderly patients. We aimed to estimate the effect of invasive versus non-invasive management within 3 days of peak troponin concentration on the survival of patients aged 80 years or older with NSTEMI. METHODS: Routine clinical data for this study were obtained from five collaborating hospitals hosting NIHR Biomedical Research Centres in the UK (all tertiary centres with emergency departments). Eligible patients were 80 years old or older when they underwent troponin measurements and were diagnosed with NSTEMI between 2010 (2008 for University College Hospital) and 2017. Propensity scores (patients' estimated probability of receiving invasive management) based on pretreatment variables were derived using logistic regression; patients with high probabilities of non-invasive or invasive management were excluded. Patients who died within 3 days of peak troponin concentration without receiving invasive management were assigned to the invasive or non-invasive management groups based on their propensity scores, to mitigate immortal time bias. We estimated mortality hazard ratios comparing invasive with non-invasive management, and compared the rate of hospital admissions for heart failure. FINDINGS: Of the 1976 patients with NSTEMI, 101 died within 3 days of their peak troponin concentration and 375 were excluded because of extreme propensity scores. The remaining 1500 patients had a median age of 86 (IQR 82-89) years of whom (845 [56%] received non-invasive management. During median follow-up of 3·0 (IQR 1·2-4·8) years, 613 (41%) patients died. The adjusted cumulative 5-year mortality was 36% in the invasive management group and 55% in the non-invasive management group (adjusted hazard ratio 0·68, 95% CI 0·55-0·84). Invasive management was associated with lower incidence of hospital admissions for heart failure (adjusted rate ratio compared with non-invasive management 0·67, 95% CI 0·48-0·93). INTERPRETATION: The survival advantage of invasive compared with non-invasive management appears to extend to patients with NSTEMI who are aged 80 years or older. FUNDING: NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, as part of the NIHR Health Informatics Collaborative.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) viral load, liver and renal function in adults treated with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) vs. untreated: a retrospective longitudinal UK cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Current clinical guidelines recommend treating chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in a minority of cases, but there are relatively scarce data on evolution or progression of liver inflammation and fibrosis in cases of chronic HBV (CHB) that do not meet treatment criteria. We aimed to assess the impact of TDF on liver disease, and the risk of renal impairment in treated CHB patients in comparison to untreated patients. METHODS: We studied a longitudinal ethnically diverse CHB cohort in the UK attending out-patient clinics between 2005 and 2018. We examined TDF treatment (vs. untreated) as the main exposure, with HBV DNA viral load (VL), ALT, elastography scores and eGFR as the main outcomes, using paired tests and mixed effects model for longitudinal measurements. Additionally, decline of eGFR during follow-up was quantified within individuals by thresholds based on clinical guidelines. Baseline was defined as treatment initiation for TDF group and the beginning of clinical follow-up for untreated group respectively. RESULTS: We included 206 adults (60 on TDF, 146 untreated), with a median ± IQR follow-up duration of 3.3 ± 2.8 years. The TDF group was significantly older (median age 39 vs. 35 years, p = 0.004) and more likely to be male (63% vs. 47%, p = 0.04) compared to the untreated group. Baseline difference between TDF and untreated groups reflected treatment eligibility criteria. As expected, VL and ALT declined significantly over time in TDF-treated patients. Elastography scores normalised during treatment in the TDF group reflecting regression of inflammation and/or fibrosis. However, 6/81 (7.4%) of untreated patients had a progression of fibrosis stage from F0-F1 to F2 or F3. There was no evidence of difference in rates or incidence of renal impairment during follow-up in the TDF vs. untreated group. CONCLUSIONS: Risk of liver inflammation and fibrosis may be raised in untreated patients compared to those receiving TDF, and TDF may benefit a larger percentage of the CHB population.

Improving public health by improving clinical trial guidelines and their application.

Evidence generated from randomized controlled trials forms the foundation of cardiovascular therapeutics and has led to the adoption of numerous drugs and devices that prolong survival and reduce morbidity, as well as the avoidance of interventions that have been shown to be ineffective or even unsafe. Many aspects of cardiovascular research have evolved considerably since the first randomized trials in cardiology were conducted. In order to be large enough to provide reliable evidence about effects on major outcomes, cardiovascular trials may now involve thousands of patients recruited from hundreds of clinical sites in many different countries. Costly infrastructure has developed to meet the increasingly complex organizational and operational requirements of these clinical trials. Concerns have been raised that this approach is unsustainable, inhibiting the reliable evaluation of new and existing treatments, to the detriment of patient care. These issues were considered by patients, regulators, funders, and trialists at a meeting of the European Society of Cardiology Cardiovascular Roundtable in October 2015. This paper summarizes the key insights and discussions from the workshop, highlights subsequent progress, and identifies next steps to produce meaningful change in the conduct of cardiovascular clinical research.

Protocol for the Development and Analysis of the Oxford and Reading Cognitive Comorbidity, Frailty and Ageing Research Database-Electronic Patient Records (ORCHARD-EPR).

BACKGROUND: Hospital electronic patient records (EPRs) offer the opportunity to exploit large-scale routinely acquired data at relatively low cost and without selection. EPRs provide considerably richer data, and in real-time, than retrospective administrative data sets in which clinical complexity is often poorly captured. With population ageing, a wide range of hospital specialties now manage older people with multimorbidity, frailty and associated poor outcomes. We, therefore, set-up the Oxford and Reading Cognitive Comorbidity, Frailty and Ageing Research Database-Electronic Patient Records (ORCHARD-EPR) to facilitate clinically meaningful research in older hospital patients, including algorithm development, and to aid medical decision-making, implementation of guidelines, and inform policy. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: ORCHARD-EPR uses routinely acquired individual patient data on all patients aged ≥65 years with unplanned admission or Same Day Emergency Care unit attendance at four acute general hospitals serving a population of >800 000 (Oxfordshire, UK) with planned extension to the neighbouring Berkshire regional hospitals (>1 000 000). Data fields include diagnosis, comorbidities, nursing risk assessments, frailty, observations, illness acuity, laboratory tests and brain scan images. Importantly, ORCHARD-EPR contains the results from mandatory hospital-wide cognitive screening (≥70 years) comprising the 10-point Abbreviated-Mental-Test and dementia and delirium diagnosis (Confusion Assessment Method-CAM). Outcomes include length of stay, delayed transfers of care, discharge destination, readmissions and death. The rich multimodal data are further enhanced by linkage to secondary care electronic mental health records. Selection of appropriate subgroups or linkage to existing cohorts allows disease-specific studies. Over 200 000 patient episodes are included to date with data collection ongoing of which 129 248 are admissions with a length of stay ≥1 day in 64 641 unique patients. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: ORCHARD-EPR is approved by the South Central Oxford C Research Ethics Committee (ref: 23/SC/0258). Results will be widely disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and presentations at conferences, and regional meetings to improve hospital data quality and clinical services.

Challenges and solutions to system-wide use of precision oncology as the standard of care paradigm.

The personalised oncology paradigm remains challenging to deliver despite technological advances in genomics-based identification of actionable variants combined with the increasing focus of drug development on these specific targets. To ensure we continue to build concerted momentum to improve outcomes across all cancer types, financial, technological and operational barriers need to be addressed. For example, complete integration and certification of the 'molecular tumour board' into 'standard of care' ensures a unified clinical decision pathway that both counteracts fragmentation and is the cornerstone of evidence-based delivery inside and outside of a research setting. Generally, integrated delivery has been restricted to specific (common) cancer types either within major cancer centres or small regional networks. Here, we focus on solutions in real-world integration of genomics, pathology, surgery, oncological treatments, data from clinical source systems and analysis of whole-body imaging as digital data that can facilitate cost-effectiveness analysis, clinical trial recruitment, and outcome assessment. This urgent imperative for cancer also extends across the early diagnosis and adjuvant treatment interventions, individualised cancer vaccines, immune cell therapies, personalised synthetic lethal therapeutics and cancer screening and prevention. Oncology care systems worldwide require proactive step-changes in solutions that include inter-operative digital working that can solve patient centred challenges to ensure inclusive, quality, sustainable, fair and cost-effective adoption and efficient delivery. Here we highlight workforce, technical, clinical, regulatory and economic challenges that prevent the implementation of precision oncology at scale, and offer a systematic roadmap of integrated solutions for standard of care based on minimal essential digital tools. These include unified decision support tools, quality control, data flows within an ethical and legal data framework, training and certification, monitoring and feedback. Bridging the technical, operational, regulatory and economic gaps demands the joint actions from public and industry stakeholders across national and global boundaries.

Changes in the investigation and management of suspected myocardial infarction and injury during COVID-19: a multi-centre study using routinely collected healthcare data.

Objective: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a reduction in the incidence of myocardial infarction (MI) diagnosis, in part because patients were less likely to present to hospital. Whether changes in clinical decision making with respect to the investigation and management of patients with suspected MI also contributed to this phenomenon is unknown. Methods: Multicentre retrospective cohort study in three UK centres contributing data to the National Institute for Health Research Health Informatics Collaborative. Patients presenting to the Emergency Department (ED) of these centres between 1st January 2020 and 1st September 2020 were included. Three time epochs within this period were defined based on the course of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: pre-pandemic (epoch 1), lockdown (epoch 2), post-lockdown (epoch 3). Results: During the study period, 10,670 unique patients attended the ED with chest pain or dyspnoea, of whom 6,928 were admitted. Despite fewer total ED attendances in epoch 2, patient presentations with dyspnoea were increased (p < 0.001), with greater likelihood of troponin testing in both chest pain (p = 0.001) and dyspnoea (p < 0.001). There was a dramatic reduction in elective and emergency cardiac procedures (both p < 0.001), and greater overall mortality of patients (p < 0.001), compared to the pre-pandemic period. Positive COVID-19 and/or troponin test results were associated with increased mortality (p < 0.001), though the temporal risk profile differed. Conclusions: The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with significant changes not just in presentation, but also the investigation, management, and outcomes of patients presenting with suspected myocardial injury or MI.

The Relationship Between Cardiac Troponin in People Hospitalised for Exacerbation of COPD and Major Adverse Cardiac Events (MACE) and COPD Readmissions.

Background: No single biomarker currently risk stratifies chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients at the time of an exacerbation, though previous studies have suggested that patients with elevated troponin at exacerbation have worse outcomes. This study evaluated the relationship between peak cardiac troponin and subsequent major adverse cardiac events (MACE) including all-cause mortality and COPD hospital readmission, among patients admitted with COPD exacerbation. Methods: Data from five cross-regional hospitals in England were analysed using the National Institute of Health Research Health Informatics Collaborative (NIHR-HIC) acute coronary syndrome database (2008-2017). People hospitalised with a COPD exacerbation were included, and peak troponin levels were standardised relative to the 99th percentile (upper limit of normal). We used Cox Proportional Hazard models adjusting for age, sex, laboratory results and clinical risk factors, and implemented logarithmic transformation (base-10 logarithm). The primary outcome was risk of MACE within 90 days from peak troponin measurement. Secondary outcome was risk of COPD readmission within 90 days from peak troponin measurement. Results: There were 2487 patients included. Of these, 377 (15.2%) patients had a MACE event and 203 (8.2%) were readmitted within 90 days from peak troponin measurement. A total of 1107 (44.5%) patients had an elevated troponin level. Of 1107 patients with elevated troponin at exacerbation, 256 (22.8%) had a MACE event and 101 (9.0%) a COPD readmission within 90 days from peak troponin measurement. Patients with troponin above the upper limit of normal had a higher risk of MACE (adjusted HR 2.20, 95% CI 1.75-2.77) and COPD hospital readmission (adjusted HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.02-1.83) when compared with patients without elevated troponin. Conclusion: An elevated troponin level at the time of COPD exacerbation may be a useful tool for predicting MACE in COPD patients. The relationship between degree of troponin elevation and risk of future events is complex and requires further investigation.

Prognostic Significance of Ventricular Arrhythmias in 13 444 Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome: A Retrospective Cohort Study Based on Routine Clinical Data (NIHR Health Informatics Collaborative VA-ACS Study).

Background A minority of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) cases are associated with ventricular arrhythmias (VA) and/or cardiac arrest (CA). We investigated the effect of VA/CA at the time of ACS on long-term outcomes. Methods and Results We analyzed routine clinical data from 5 National Health Service trusts in the United Kingdom, collected between 2010 and 2017 by the National Institute for Health Research Health Informatics Collaborative. A total of 13 444 patients with ACS, 376 (2.8%) of whom had concurrent VA, survived to hospital discharge and were followed up for a median of 3.42 years. Patients with VA or CA at index presentation had significantly increased risks of subsequent VA during follow-up (VA group: adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 4.15 [95% CI, 2.42-7.09]; CA group: adjusted HR, 2.60 [95% CI, 1.23-5.48]). Patients who suffered a CA in the context of ACS and survived to discharge also had a 36% increase in long-term mortality (adjusted HR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.04-1.78]), although the concurrent diagnosis of VA alone during ACS did not affect all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.80-1.33]). Conclusions Patients who develop VA or CA during ACS who survive to discharge have increased risks of subsequent VA, whereas those who have CA during ACS also have an increase in long-term mortality. These individuals may represent a subgroup at greater risk of subsequent arrhythmic events as a result of intrinsically lower thresholds for developing VA.

Incidence, Risk Factors, and Effect on Allograft Survival of Glomerulonephritis Post-transplantation in a United Kingdom Population: Cohort Study.

Background: Post-transplant glomerulonephritis (PTGN) has been associated with inferior long-term allograft survival, and its incidence varies widely in the literature. Methods: This is a cohort study of 7,623 patients transplanted between 2005 and 2016 at four major transplant UK centres. The diagnosis of glomerulonephritis (GN) in the allograft was extracted from histology reports aided by the use of text-mining software. The incidence of the four most common GN post-transplantation was calculated, and the risk factors for disease and allograft outcomes were analyzed. Results: In total, 214 patients (2.8%) presented with PTGN. IgA nephropathy (IgAN), focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS), membranous nephropathy (MN), and membranoproliferative/mesangiocapillary GN (MPGN/MCGN) were the four most common forms of post-transplant GN. Living donation, HLA DR match, mixed race, and other ethnic minority groups were associated with an increased risk of developing a PTGN. Patients with PTGN showed a similar allograft survival to those without in the first 8 years of post-transplantation, but the results suggest that they do less well after that timepoint. IgAN was associated with the best allograft survival and FSGS with the worst allograft survival. Conclusions: PTGN has an important impact on long-term allograft survival. Significant challenges can be encountered when attempting to analyze large-scale data involving unstructured or complex data points, and the use of computational analysis can assist.

Implications of elevated troponin on time-to-surgery in non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NIHR Health Informatics Collaborative: TROP-CABG study).

Implications of elevated troponin on time-to-surgery in non-ST elevation myocardial infarction(NIHR Health Informatics Collaborative:TROP-CABG study). Benedetto et al. BACKGROUND: The optimal timing of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in patients with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) and the utility of pre-operative troponin levels in decision-making remains unclear. We investigated (a) the association between peak pre-operative troponin and survival post-CABG in a large cohort of NSTEMI patients and (b) the interaction between troponin and time-to-surgery. METHODS AND RESULTS: Our cohort consisted of 1746 patients (1684 NSTEMI; 62 unstable angina) (mean age 69 ± 11 years,21% female) with recorded troponins that had CABG at five United Kingdom centers between 2010 and 2017. Time-segmented Cox regression was used to investigate the interaction of peak troponin and time-to-surgery on early (within 30 days) and late (beyond 30 days) survival. Average interval from peak troponin to surgery was 9 ± 15 days, with 1466 (84.0%) patients having CABG during the same admission. Sixty patients died within 30-days and another 211 died after a mean follow-up of 4 ± 2 years (30-day survival 0.97 ± 0.004 and 5-year survival 0.83 ± 0.01). Peak troponin was a strong predictor of early survival (adjusted P = 0.002) with a significant interaction with time-to-surgery (P interaction = 0.007). For peak troponin levels <100 times the upper limit of normal, there was no improvement in early survival with longer time-to-surgery. However, in patients with higher troponins, early survival increased progressively with a longer time-to-surgery, till day 10. Peak troponin did not influence survival beyond 30 days (adjusted P = 0.64). CONCLUSIONS: Peak troponin in NSTEMI patients undergoing CABG was a significant predictor of early mortality, strongly influenced the time-to-surgery and may prove to be a clinically useful biomarker in the management of these patients.

Establishing a colorectal cancer research database from routinely collected health data: the process and potential from a pilot study.

OBJECTIVE: Colorectal cancer is a common cause of death and morbidity. A significant amount of data are routinely collected during patient treatment, but they are not generally available for research. The National Institute for Health Research Health Informatics Collaborative in the UK is developing infrastructure to enable routinely collected data to be used for collaborative, cross-centre research. This paper presents an overview of the process for collating colorectal cancer data and explores the potential of using this data source. METHODS: Clinical data were collected from three pilot Trusts, standardised and collated. Not all data were collected in a readily extractable format for research. Natural language processing (NLP) was used to extract relevant information from pseudonymised imaging and histopathology reports. Combining data from many sources allowed reconstruction of longitudinal histories for each patient that could be presented graphically. RESULTS: Three pilot Trusts submitted data, covering 12 903 patients with a diagnosis of colorectal cancer since 2012, with NLP implemented for 4150 patients. Timelines showing individual patient longitudinal history can be grouped into common treatment patterns, visually presenting clusters and outliers for analysis. Difficulties and gaps in data sources have been identified and addressed. DISCUSSION: Algorithms for analysing routinely collected data from a wide range of sites and sources have been developed and refined to provide a rich data set that will be used to better understand the natural history, treatment variation and optimal management of colorectal cancer. CONCLUSION: The data set has great potential to facilitate research into colorectal cancer.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on routine surveillance for adults with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in the UK.

Background: To determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the population with chronic Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection under hospital follow-up in the UK, we quantified the coverage and frequency of measurements of biomarkers used for routine surveillance (alanine transferase [ALT] and HBV viral load). Methods: We used anonymized electronic health record data from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Informatics Collaborative (HIC) pipeline representing five UK National Health Service (NHS) Trusts. Results: We report significant reductions in surveillance of both biomarkers during the pandemic compared to pre-COVID-19 years, both in terms of the proportion of patients who had ≥1 measurement annually, and the mean number of measurements per patient. Conclusions: These results demonstrate the real-time utility of HIC data in monitoring health-care provision, and support interventions to provide catch-up services to minimise the impact of the pandemic. Further investigation is required to determine whether these disruptions will be associated with increased rates of adverse chronic HBV outcomes.

Longitudinal Analysis of the Utility of Liver Biochemistry as Prognostic Markers in Hospitalized Patients With Corona Virus Disease 2019.

The association of liver biochemistry with clinical outcomes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is currently unclear, and the utility of longitudinally measured liver biochemistry as prognostic markers for mortality is unknown. We aimed to determine whether abnormal liver biochemistry, assessed at baseline and at repeat measures over time, was associated with death in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 compared to those without COVID-19, in a United Kingdom population. We extracted routinely collected clinical data from a large teaching hospital in the United Kingdom, matching 585 hospitalized patients who were SARS-CoV-2 real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) positive to 1,165 hospitalized patients who were RT-PCR negative for age, sex, ethnicity, and preexisting comorbidities. A total of 26.8% (157/585) of patients with COVID-19 died compared to 11.9% (139/1,165) in the group without COVID-19 (P < 0.001). At presentation, a significantly higher proportion of the group with COVID-19 had elevated alanine aminotransferase (20.7% vs. 14.6%, P = 0.004) and hypoalbuminemia (58.7% vs. 35.0%, P < 0.001) compared to the group without COVID-19. Within the group with COVID-19, those with hypoalbuminemia at presentation had 1.83-fold increased hazards of death compared to those with normal albumin (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.25-2.67), while the hazard of death was ~4-fold higher in those aged ≥75 years (adjusted HR, 3.96; 95% CI, 2.59-6.04) and ~3-fold higher in those with preexisting liver disease (adjusted HR, 3.37; 95% CI, 1.58-7.16). In the group with COVID-19, alkaline phosphatase (ALP) increased (R = 0.192, P < 0.0001) and albumin declined (R = -0.123, P = 0.0004) over time in patients who died. Conclusion: In this United Kingdom population, liver biochemistry is commonly deranged in patients with COVID-19. Baseline hypoalbuminemia and rising ALP over time could be prognostic markers for death, but investigation of larger cohorts is required to develop a better understanding of the relationship between liver biochemistry and disease outcome.

Bimodal distribution and set point HBV DNA viral loads in chronic infection: retrospective analysis of cohorts from the UK and South Africa.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) viral load (VL) is used as a biomarker to assess risk of disease progression, and to determine eligibility for treatment. While there is a well recognised association between VL and the expression of the viral e-antigen (HBeAg) protein, the precise determinants and distribution of VL at a population level are not well described. We here report the distribution of HBV VL in two large cross-sectional population cohorts in the UK and in South Africa, demonstrating a consistent bimodal distribution. The right skewed distribution and low median viral loads are significantly different from the left-skew and higher viraemia in seen in comparable HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) cohorts. Using longitudinal data, we present evidence for a stable 'set-point' VL in peripheral blood during chronic HBV infection. These results are important to underpin improved understanding of HBV biology and to plan public health interventions.

National Institute for Health Research Health Informatics Collaborative: development of a pipeline to collate electronic clinical data for viral hepatitis research.

OBJECTIVE: The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Informatics Collaborative (HIC) is a programme of infrastructure development across NIHR Biomedical Research Centres. The aim of the NIHR HIC is to improve the quality and availability of routinely collected data for collaborative, cross-centre research. This is demonstrated through research collaborations in selected therapeutic areas, one of which is viral hepatitis. DESIGN: The collaboration in viral hepatitis identified a rich set of datapoints, including information on clinical assessment, antiviral treatment, laboratory test results and health outcomes. Clinical data from different centres were standardised and combined to produce a research-ready dataset; this was used to generate insights regarding disease prevalence and treatment response. RESULTS: A comprehensive database has been developed for potential viral hepatitis research interests, with a corresponding data dictionary for researchers across the centres. An initial cohort of 960 patients with chronic hepatitis B infections and 1404 patients with chronic hepatitis C infections has been collected. CONCLUSION: For the first time, large prospective cohorts are being formed within National Health Service (NHS) secondary care services that will allow research questions to be rapidly addressed using real-world data. Interactions with industry partners will help to shape future research and will inform patient-stratified clinical practice. An emphasis on NHS-wide systems interoperability, and the increased utilisation of structured data solutions for electronic patient records, is improving access to data for research, service improvement and the reduction of clinical data gaps.

Prognostic significance of troponin level in 3121 patients presenting with atrial fibrillation (The NIHR Health Informatics Collaborative TROP-AF study).

Background Patients presenting with atrial fibrillation (AF) often undergo a blood test to measure troponin, but interpretation of the result is impeded by uncertainty about its clinical importance. We investigated the relationship between troponin level, coronary angiography, and all-cause mortality in real-world patients presenting with AF. Methods and Results We used National Institute of Health Research Health Informatics Collaborative data to identify patients admitted between 2010 and 2017 at 5 tertiary centers in the United Kingdom with a primary diagnosis of AF. Peak troponin results were scaled as multiples of the upper limit of normal. A total of 3121 patients were included in the analysis. Over a median follow-up of 1462 (interquartile range, 929-1975) days, there were 586 deaths (18.8%). The adjusted hazard ratio for mortality associated with a positive troponin (value above upper limit of normal) was 1.20 (95% CI, 1.01-1.43; P<0.05). Higher troponin levels were associated with higher risk of mortality, reaching a maximum hazard ratio of 2.6 (95% CI, 1.9-3.4) at ≈250 multiples of the upper limit of normal. There was an exponential relationship between higher troponin levels and increased odds of coronary angiography. The mortality risk was 36% lower in patients undergoing coronary angiography than in those who did not (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.42-0.89; P=0.01). Conclusions Increased troponin was associated with increased risk of mortality in patients presenting with AF. The lower hazard ratio in patients undergoing invasive management raises the possibility that the clinical importance of troponin release in AF may be mediated by coronary artery disease, which may be responsive to revascularization.

Authority and the Future of Consent in Population-Level Biomedical Research.

Population-level biomedical research has become crucial to the health system's ability to improve the health of the population. This form of research raises a number of well-documented ethical concerns, perhaps the most significant of which is the inability of the researcher to obtain fully informed specific consent from participants. Two proposed technical solutions to this problem of consent in large-scale biomedical research that have become increasingly popular are meta-consent and dynamic consent. We critically examine the ethical and practical credentials of these proposals and find them lacking. We suggest that the consent problem is not solved by adopting a technology driven approach grounded in a notion of 'specific' consent but by taking seriously the role of research governance in combination with broader conceptions of consent. In our view, these approaches misconstrue the rightful location of authority in the way in which population-level biomedical research activities are structured and organized. We conclude by showing how and why the authority for determining the nature and shape of choice making about participation ought not to lie with individual participants, but rather with the researchers and the research governance process, and that this necessarily leads to the endorsement of a fully articulated broad consent approach.

Electronic Health Informatics Data To Describe Clearance Dynamics of Hepatitis B Surface Antigen (HBsAg) and e Antigen (HBeAg) in Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection.

HBsAg and HBeAg have gained traction as biomarkers of control and clearance during chronic hepatitis B virus infection (CHB). Improved understanding of the clearance correlates of these proteins could help inform improvements in patient-stratified care and advance insights into the underlying mechanisms of disease control, thus underpinning new cure strategies. We collected electronic clinical data via an electronic pipeline supported by the National Institute for Health Research Health Informatics Collaborative (NIHR HIC), adopting an unbiased approach to the generation of a robust longitudinal data set for adults testing HBsAg positive from a large UK teaching hospital over a 6-year period (2011 to 2016 inclusive). Of 553 individuals with CHB, longitudinal data were available for 319, representing >107,000 weeks of clinical follow-up. Among these 319 individuals, 13 (4%) cleared HBsAg completely. Among these 13, the HBsAg clearance rate in individuals on nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) therapy (n = 4 [31%]; median clearance time,150 weeks) was similar to that in individuals not on NA therapy (n = 9 [69%]; median clearance time, 157 weeks). Those who cleared HBsAg were significantly older and less likely to be on NA therapy than nonclearers (P = 0.003 and P = 0.001, respectively). Chinese ethnicity was associated with HBeAg positivity (P = 0.025). HBeAg clearance occurred in individuals both on NA therapy (n = 24; median time, 49 weeks) and off NA therapy (n = 19; median time, 52 weeks). Improved insights into the dynamics of these biomarkers can underpin better prognostication and patient-stratified care. Our systematized approach to data collection paves the way for scaling up efforts to harness clinical data to address research questions and support improvements in clinical care.IMPORTANCE Advances in the diagnosis, monitoring, and treatment of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection are urgently required if we are to meet international targets for elimination by the year 2030. Here we demonstrate how routine clinical data can be harnessed through an unbiased electronic pipeline, showcasing the significant potential for amassing large clinical data sets that can help to inform advances in patient care and provide insights that may help to inform new cure strategies. Our cohort from a large UK hospital includes adults from diverse ethnic groups that have previously been underrepresented in the literature. By tracking two protein biomarkers that are used to monitor chronic HBV infection, we provide new insights into the timelines of HBV clearance, both on and off treatment. These results contribute to improvements in individualized clinical care and may provide important clues into the immune events that underpin disease control.

Association of troponin level and age with mortality in 250 000 patients: cohort study across five UK acute care centres.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the relation between age and troponin level and its prognostic implication. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Five cardiovascular centres in the UK National Institute for Health Research Health Informatics Collaborative (UK-NIHR HIC). PARTICIPANTS: 257 948 consecutive patients undergoing troponin testing for any clinical reason between 2010 and 2017. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: All cause mortality. RESULTS: 257 948 patients had troponin measured during the study period. Analyses on troponin were performed using the peak troponin level, which was the highest troponin level measured during the patient's hospital stay. Troponin levels were standardised as a multiple of each laboratory's 99th centile of the upper limit of normal (ULN). During a median follow-up of 1198 days (interquartile range 514-1866 days), 55 850 (21.7%) deaths occurred. A positive troponin result (that is, higher than the upper limit of normal) signified a 3.2 higher mortality hazard (95% confidence interval 3.1 to 3.2) over three years. Mortality varied noticeably with age, with a hazard ratio of 10.6 (8.5 to 13.3) in 18-29 year olds and 1.5 (1.4 to 1.6) in those older than 90. A positive troponin result was associated with an approximately 15 percentage points higher absolute three year mortality across all age groups. The excess mortality with a positive troponin result was heavily concentrated in the first few weeks. Results were analysed using multivariable adjusted restricted cubic spline Cox regression. A direct relation was seen between troponin level and mortality in patients without acute coronary syndrome (ACS, n=120 049), whereas an inverted U shaped relation was found in patients with ACS (n=14 468), with a paradoxical decline in mortality at peak troponin levels >70×ULN. In the group with ACS, the inverted U shaped relation persisted after multivariable adjustment in those who were managed invasively; however, a direct positive relation was found between troponin level and mortality in patients managed non-invasively. CONCLUSIONS: A positive troponin result was associated with a clinically important increased mortality, regardless of age, even if the level was only slightly above normal. The excess mortality with a raised troponin was heavily concentrated in the first few weeks. STUDY REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03507309.