Using clinical and genetic risk factors for risk prediction of 8 cancers in the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Models with polygenic risk scores and clinical factors to predict risk of different cancers have been developed, but these models have been limited by the polygenic risk score-derivation methods and the incomplete selection of clinical variables. METHODS: We used UK Biobank to train the best polygenic risk scores for 8 cancers (bladder, breast, colorectal, kidney, lung, ovarian, pancreatic, and prostate cancers) and select relevant clinical variables from 733 baseline traits through extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). Combining polygenic risk scores and clinical variables, we developed Cox proportional hazards models for risk prediction in these cancers. RESULTS: Our models achieved high prediction accuracy for 8 cancers, with areas under the curve ranging from 0.618 (95% confidence interval = 0.581 to 0.655) for ovarian cancer to 0.831 (95% confidence interval = 0.817 to 0.845) for lung cancer. Additionally, our models could identify individuals at a high risk for developing cancer. For example, the risk of breast cancer for individuals in the top 5% score quantile was nearly 13 times greater than for individuals in the lowest 10%. Furthermore, we observed a higher proportion of individuals with high polygenic risk scores in the early-onset group but a higher proportion of individuals at high clinical risk in the late-onset group. CONCLUSION: Our models demonstrated the potential to predict cancer risk and identify high-risk individuals with great generalizability to different cancers. Our findings suggested that the polygenic risk score model is more predictive for the cancer risk of early-onset patients than for late-onset patients, while the clinical risk model is more predictive for late-onset patients. Meanwhile, combining polygenic risk scores and clinical risk factors has overall better predictive performance than using polygenic risk scores or clinical risk factors alone.

Phenome- and genome-wide analyses of retinal optical coherence tomography images identify links between ocular and systemic health.

The human retina is a multilayered tissue that offers a unique window into systemic health. Optical coherence tomography (OCT) is widely used in eye care and allows the noninvasive, rapid capture of retinal anatomy in exquisite detail. We conducted genotypic and phenotypic analyses of retinal layer thicknesses using macular OCT images from 44,823 UK Biobank participants. We performed OCT layer cross-phenotype association analyses (OCT-XWAS), associating retinal thicknesses with 1866 incident conditions (median 10-year follow-up) and 88 quantitative traits and blood biomarkers. We performed genome-wide association studies (GWASs), identifying inherited genetic markers that influence retinal layer thicknesses and replicated our associations among the LIFE-Adult Study (N = 6313). Last, we performed a comparative analysis of phenome- and genome-wide associations to identify putative causal links between retinal layer thicknesses and both ocular and systemic conditions. Independent associations with incident mortality were detected for thinner photoreceptor segments (PSs) and, separately, ganglion cell complex layers. Phenotypic associations were detected between thinner retinal layers and ocular, neuropsychiatric, cardiometabolic, and pulmonary conditions. A GWAS of retinal layer thicknesses yielded 259 unique loci. Consistency between epidemiologic and genetic associations suggested links between a thinner retinal nerve fiber layer with glaucoma, thinner PS with age-related macular degeneration, and poor cardiometabolic and pulmonary function with a thinner PS. In conclusion, we identified multiple inherited genetic loci and acquired systemic cardio-metabolic-pulmonary conditions associated with thinner retinal layers and identify retinal layers wherein thinning is predictive of future ocular and systemic conditions.

Genomic risk prediction of cardiovascular diseases among type 2 diabetes patients in the UK Biobank.

Background: Polygenic risk score (PRS) has proved useful in predicting the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) based on the genotypes of an individual, but most analyses have focused on disease onset in the general population. The usefulness of PRS to predict CVD risk among type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients remains unclear. Methods: We built a meta-PRSCVD upon the candidate PRSs developed from state-of-the-art PRS methods for three CVD subtypes of significant importance: coronary artery disease (CAD), ischemic stroke (IS), and heart failure (HF). To evaluate the prediction performance of the meta-PRSCVD, we restricted our analysis to 21,092 white British T2D patients in the UK Biobank, among which 4,015 had CVD events. Results: Results showed that the meta-PRSCVD was significantly associated with CVD risk with a hazard ratio per standard deviation increase of 1.28 (95% CI: 1.23-1.33). The meta-PRSCVD alone predicted the CVD incidence with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.57 (95% CI: 0.54-0.59). When restricted to the early-onset patients (onset age ≤ 55), the AUC was further increased to 0.61 (95% CI 0.56-0.67). Conclusion: Our results highlight the potential role of genomic screening for secondary preventions of CVD among T2D patients, especially among early-onset patients.