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1.
Remote Sens Environ ; 228: 1-13, 2019 Jul 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33776151

ABSTRACT

The Prairie Pothole Region of North America is characterized by millions of depressional wetlands, which provide critical habitats for globally significant populations of migratory waterfowl and other wildlife species. Due to their relatively small size and shallow depth, these wetlands are highly sensitive to climate variability and anthropogenic changes, exhibiting inter- and intra-annual inundation dynamics. Moderate-resolution satellite imagery (e.g., Landsat, Sentinel) alone cannot be used to effectively delineate these small depressional wetlands. By integrating fine spatial resolution Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data and multi-temporal (2009-2017) aerial images, we developed a fully automated approach to delineate wetland inundation extent at watershed scales using Google Earth Engine. Machine learning algorithms were used to classify aerial imagery with additional spectral indices to extract potential wetland inundation areas, which were further refined using LiDAR-derived landform depressions. The wetland delineation results were then compared to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) geospatial dataset and existing global-scale surface water products to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. We tested the workflow on 26 watersheds with a total area of 16,576 km2 in the Prairie Pothole Region. The results showed that the proposed method can not only delineate current wetland inundation status but also demonstrate wetland hydrological dynamics, such as wetland coalescence through fill-spill hydrological processes. Our automated algorithm provides a practical, reproducible, and scalable framework, which can be easily adapted to delineate wetland inundation dynamics at broad geographic scales.

2.
Sensors (Basel) ; 19(17)2019 Aug 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31470563

ABSTRACT

A novel adaptive morphological attribute profile under object boundary constraint (AMAP-OBC) method is proposed in this study for automatic building extraction from high-resolution remote sensing (HRRS) images. By investigating the associated attributes in morphological attribute profiles (MAPs), the proposed method establishes corresponding relationships between AMAP-OBC and building characteristics in HRRS images. In the preprocessing step, the candidate object set is extracted by a group of rules for screening of non-building objects. Second, based on the proposed adaptive scale parameter extraction and object boundary constraint strategies, AMAP-OBC is conducted to obtain the initial building set. Finally, a further identification strategy with adaptive threshold combination is proposed to obtain the final building extraction results. Through experiments of multiple groups of HRRS images from different sensors, the proposed method shows outstanding performance in terms of automatic building extraction from diverse geographic objects in urban scenes.

3.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 110(28): 11250-5, 2013 Jul 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23798404

ABSTRACT

Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing are transforming energy production, but their potential environmental effects remain controversial. We analyzed 141 drinking water wells across the Appalachian Plateaus physiographic province of northeastern Pennsylvania, examining natural gas concentrations and isotopic signatures with proximity to shale gas wells. Methane was detected in 82% of drinking water samples, with average concentrations six times higher for homes <1 km from natural gas wells (P = 0.0006). Ethane was 23 times higher in homes <1 km from gas wells (P = 0.0013); propane was detected in 10 water wells, all within approximately 1 km distance (P = 0.01). Of three factors previously proposed to influence gas concentrations in shallow groundwater (distances to gas wells, valley bottoms, and the Appalachian Structural Front, a proxy for tectonic deformation), distance to gas wells was highly significant for methane concentrations (P = 0.007; multiple regression), whereas distances to valley bottoms and the Appalachian Structural Front were not significant (P = 0.27 and P = 0.11, respectively). Distance to gas wells was also the most significant factor for Pearson and Spearman correlation analyses (P < 0.01). For ethane concentrations, distance to gas wells was the only statistically significant factor (P < 0.005). Isotopic signatures (δ(13)C-CH4, δ(13)C-C2H6, and δ(2)H-CH4), hydrocarbon ratios (methane to ethane and propane), and the ratio of the noble gas (4)He to CH4 in groundwater were characteristic of a thermally postmature Marcellus-like source in some cases. Overall, our data suggest that some homeowners living <1 km from gas wells have drinking water contaminated with stray gases.

4.
Glob Chang Biol ; 21(9): 3246-66, 2015 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25914206

ABSTRACT

By altering fluxes of heat, momentum, and moisture exchanges between the land surface and atmosphere, forestry and other land-use activities affect climate. Although long recognized scientifically as being important, these so-called biogeophysical forcings are rarely included in climate policies for forestry and other land management projects due to the many challenges associated with their quantification. Here, we review the scientific literature in the fields of atmospheric science and terrestrial ecology in light of three main objectives: (i) to elucidate the challenges associated with quantifying biogeophysical climate forcings connected to land use and land management, with a focus on the forestry sector; (ii) to identify and describe scientific approaches and/or metrics facilitating the quantification and interpretation of direct biogeophysical climate forcings; and (iii) to identify and recommend research priorities that can help overcome the challenges of their attribution to specific land-use activities, bridging the knowledge gap between the climate modeling, forest ecology, and resource management communities. We find that ignoring surface biogeophysics may mislead climate mitigation policies, yet existing metrics are unlikely to be sufficient. Successful metrics ought to (i) include both radiative and nonradiative climate forcings; (ii) reconcile disparities between biogeophysical and biogeochemical forcings, and (iii) acknowledge trade-offs between global and local climate benefits. We call for more coordinated research among terrestrial ecologists, resource managers, and coupled climate modelers to harmonize datasets, refine analytical techniques, and corroborate and validate metrics that are more amenable to analyses at the scale of an individual site or region.


Subject(s)
Atmosphere , Climate , Conservation of Natural Resources , Forestry , Biophysical Phenomena , Climate Change , Models, Theoretical
5.
Environ Sci Technol ; 49(15): 8969-76, 2015 Aug 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26196164

ABSTRACT

Reports highlight the safety of hydraulic fracturing for drinking water if it occurs "many hundreds of meters to kilometers underground". To our knowledge, however, no comprehensive analysis of hydraulic fracturing depths exists. Based on fracturing depths and water use for ∼44,000 wells reported between 2010 and 2013, the average fracturing depth across the United States was 8300 ft (∼2500 m). Many wells (6900; 16%) were fractured less than a mile from the surface, and 2600 wells (6%) were fractured above 3000 ft (900 m), particularly in Texas (850 wells), California (720), Arkansas (310), and Wyoming (300). Average water use per well nationally was 2,400,000 gallons (9,200,000 L), led by Arkansas (5,200,000 gallons), Louisiana (5,100,000 gallons), West Virginia (5,000,000 gallons), and Pennsylvania (4,500,000 gallons). Two thousand wells (∼5%) shallower than one mile and 350 wells (∼1%) shallower than 3000 ft were hydraulically fractured with >1 million gallons of water, particularly in Arkansas, New Mexico, Texas, Pennsylvania, and California. Because hydraulic fractures can propagate 2000 ft upward, shallow wells may warrant special safeguards, including a mandatory registry of locations, full chemical disclosure, and, where horizontal drilling is used, predrilling water testing to a radius 1000 ft beyond the greatest lateral extent.


Subject(s)
Hydraulic Fracking , Water Supply , Water/analysis , Geography , Groundwater , Policy , United States
6.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 109(30): 11961-6, 2012 Jul 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22778445

ABSTRACT

The debate surrounding the safety of shale gas development in the Appalachian Basin has generated increased awareness of drinking water quality in rural communities. Concerns include the potential for migration of stray gas, metal-rich formation brines, and hydraulic fracturing and/or flowback fluids to drinking water aquifers. A critical question common to these environmental risks is the hydraulic connectivity between the shale gas formations and the overlying shallow drinking water aquifers. We present geochemical evidence from northeastern Pennsylvania showing that pathways, unrelated to recent drilling activities, exist in some locations between deep underlying formations and shallow drinking water aquifers. Integration of chemical data (Br, Cl, Na, Ba, Sr, and Li) and isotopic ratios ((87)Sr/(86)Sr, (2)H/H, (18)O/(16)O, and (228)Ra/(226)Ra) from this and previous studies in 426 shallow groundwater samples and 83 northern Appalachian brine samples suggest that mixing relationships between shallow ground water and a deep formation brine causes groundwater salinization in some locations. The strong geochemical fingerprint in the salinized (Cl > 20 mg/L) groundwater sampled from the Alluvium, Catskill, and Lock Haven aquifers suggests possible migration of Marcellus brine through naturally occurring pathways. The occurrences of saline water do not correlate with the location of shale-gas wells and are consistent with reported data before rapid shale-gas development in the region; however, the presence of these fluids suggests conductive pathways and specific geostructural and/or hydrodynamic regimes in northeastern Pennsylvania that are at increased risk for contamination of shallow drinking water resources, particularly by fugitive gases, because of natural hydraulic connections to deeper formations.


Subject(s)
Geological Phenomena , Groundwater/chemistry , Salts/chemistry , Water Movements , Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis , Water Supply/analysis , Chromatography, Ion Exchange , Isotopes/analysis , Mass Spectrometry , Pennsylvania , Radium/analysis , Strontium Isotopes/analysis
7.
Environ Sci Technol ; 48(3): 2051-8, 2014.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24432903

ABSTRACT

Pipeline safety in the United States has increased in recent decades, but incidents involving natural gas pipelines still cause an average of 17 fatalities and $133 M in property damage annually. Natural gas leaks are also the largest anthropogenic source of the greenhouse gas methane (CH4) in the U.S. To reduce pipeline leakage and increase consumer safety, we deployed a Picarro G2301 Cavity Ring-Down Spectrometer in a car, mapping 5893 natural gas leaks (2.5 to 88.6 ppm CH4) across 1500 road miles of Washington, DC. The δ(13)C-isotopic signatures of the methane (-38.2‰ ± 3.9‰ s.d.) and ethane (-36.5 ± 1.1 s.d.) and the CH4:C2H6 ratios (25.5 ± 8.9 s.d.) closely matched the pipeline gas (-39.0‰ and -36.2‰ for methane and ethane; 19.0 for CH4/C2H6). Emissions from four street leaks ranged from 9200 to 38,200 L CH4 day(-1) each, comparable to natural gas used by 1.7 to 7.0 homes, respectively. At 19 tested locations, 12 potentially explosive (Grade 1) methane concentrations of 50,000 to 500,000 ppm were detected in manholes. Financial incentives and targeted programs among companies, public utility commissions, and scientists to reduce leaks and replace old cast-iron pipes will improve consumer safety and air quality, save money, and lower greenhouse gas emissions.


Subject(s)
Air Pollutants/analysis , Natural Gas/analysis , Carbon Isotopes , District of Columbia , Geography , Hazardous Substances/analysis , Methane/analysis
8.
Sci Data ; 11(1): 712, 2024 Jun 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38951502

ABSTRACT

Riverine nitrogen is a pivotal determinant influencing water quality in inland and coastal waters. Despite the recognized utility, no spatially-explicit data on riverine nitrogen yield is available for large parts of the world, thus hindering our ability to identify the contributors to riverine nitrogen and understand aquatic nitrogen cycling. To fill the data gap for the United States, here we (1) compiled 294,996 total nitrogen (TN), 225,827 nitrate (NO3-), 204,015 ammonium (NH4+), and 158,837 total organic nitrogen (TON) concentrations, with concurrent streamflow data, across the Conterminous United States (CONUS), (2) estimated riverine nitrogen loads for over 1,800 hydrological stations, (3) derived the spatial distribution of annual riverine nitrogen yield by leveraging river and catchment connectivity information contained in the National Hydrography Dataset plus (NHDPlus), and (4) characterized nonpoint-source TN loads by excluding point-source loads. This new spatial dataset quantifies spatial sources of nitrogen yield from point and non-point sources (e.g., up to 36% from point sources across the U.S.) and serves as ground-truthing to validate water quality models.

9.
Sci Total Environ ; 817: 153012, 2022 Apr 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35026278

ABSTRACT

An improved understanding of global Urban Exposure to Flooding (UEF) is essential for developing risk-reduction strategies for sustainable urban development. This study is the first to assess the long-term historical global UEF at a fine spatial resolution (i.e., 30 m) and annual temporal frequency, with consideration of smaller urban areas in the exposure assessment compared to those using coarse resolution data. We assessed the UEF by investigating the spatially explicit urban expansion in the 100-year floodplain extents. The global UEF increased more than four-fold from 16,443 km2 in 1985 to 92,233 km2 in 2018 with accelerated temporal trends. The most notable growth in UEF occurred in Asia (74.1%), followed by Europe (11.6%), Northern America (8.7%), Africa (2.9%), Southern America (2.2%), and Australia (0.5%). Notably, China and US were the two countries with the largest UEF, accounting for about 61.5% of global growth in UEF. In addition, only 1.2% of global floodplains were occupied by urban expansion by 2018, whereas this percentage reached 20% in the basins of Western Europe, Eastern Asia, and Northeastern US. Moreover, although the floodplains only accounted for 5.5% of the global land areas, 12.6% of the urban expansion occurred in the floodplains from 1985 to 2018, with the most rapid increases in the basins in Southeastern and Eastern China. Our findings highlight that the trends of accelerated increasing urban exposure to flooding have been occurring for at least the past three decades.


Subject(s)
Floods , Asia , China , Europe , South America
10.
Sci Total Environ ; 802: 149651, 2022 Jan 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34525747

ABSTRACT

Forest disturbances alter land biophysics. Their impacts on local climate and land surface temperature (LST) cannot be directly measured by comparing pre- and post-disturbance observations of the same site over time (e.g., due to confounding such as background climate fluctuations); a common remedy is to compare spatially-adjacent undisturbed sites instead. This space-for-time substitution ignores the inherent biases in vegetation between two paired sites, interannual variations, and temporal dynamics of forest recovery. Besides, there is a lack of observation-based analyses at fine spatial resolutions capable of capturing spatial heterogeneity of small-scale forest disturbances. To address these limitations, here we report new satellite analyses on local climate impacts of forest loss at 30 m resolution. Our analyses combined multiple long-term satellite products (e.g., albedo and evapotranspiration [ET]) at 700 sites across major climate zones in the conterminous United States, using time-series trend and changepoint detection methods. Our method helped isolate the biophysical changes attributed to disturbances from those attributed to climate backgrounds and natural growth. On average, forest loss increased surface albedo, decreased ET, and reduced leaf area index (LAI). Net annual warming-an increase in LST-was observed after forest loss in the arid/semiarid, northern, tropical, and temperate regions, dominated by the warming from decreased ET and attenuated by the cooling from increased albedo. The magnitude of post-disturbance warming was related to precipitation; climate zones with greater precipitation showed stronger and longer warming. Reduction in leaf or LAI was larger in evergreen than deciduous forests, but the recovery in LAI did not always synchronize with those of albedo and ET. Overall, this study presents new evidence of biophysical effects of forest loss on LST at finer spatial resolutions; our time-series method can be further leveraged to derive local policy-relevant ecosystem climate regulation metrics or support model-based climate-biosphere studies.


Subject(s)
Climate Change , Ecosystem , Climate , Forests , Temperature , United States
11.
Heliyon ; 7(7): e07439, 2021 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34278031

ABSTRACT

Predictive modeling with remotely sensed data requires an accurate representation of spatial variability by ground truth data. In this study, we assessed the reliability of the size and location of ground truth data in capturing the landscape spatial variability embedded in the Airborne Visible Infrared Imaging Spectrometer-Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) hyperspectral image in an agricultural region in Anand, India. We derived simulated spectral vegetation and soil indices using Gaussian simulation from AVIRIS-NG image for two point-location datasets, (1) ground truth points from adaptive sampling and (2) points from conditional Latin Hypercube Sampling (cLHS). We compared values of the simulated image indices against the actual image indices (measured) through the analysis of mean absolute errors. Modeling the variogram of the measured indices with the hyperspectral image in high spatial resolution (4m), is an effective way to characterize the spatial heterogeneity at the landscape level. We used geostatistical techniques to analyze the shapes of experimental variograms in order to assess whether or not the ground truth points, when compared against the cLHS-derived points, captured the spatial structures and variability of the studied agricultural area using measured indices. In addition, we explored the capability of the variogram by running tests in different point sample sizes. The ground truth and cLHS datasets were able to derive equivalent values for field spatial variability from image indices, according to our findings. Furthermore, this research presents a methodology for selecting spectral indices and determining the best sample size for efficiently replicating spatial patterns in hyperspectral images.

12.
Environ Pollut ; 251: 302-311, 2019 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31091494

ABSTRACT

Responses of streamflow and nutrient export to changing climate conditions should be investigated for effective water quality management and pollution control. Using downscaled climate projections and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), we projected future streamflow, sediment export, and riverine nutrient export in the St. Croix River Basin (SCRB) during 2020-2099. Results show substantial increases in riverine water, sediment, and nutrient load under future climate conditions, particularly under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Intensified water cycling and enhanced nutrient export will pose challenges to water quality management and affect multiple Best Management Practices (BMPs) efforts, which are aimed at reducing nutrient loads in SCRB. In addition to the physical impacts of climate change on terrestrial hydrology, our analyses demonstrate significant reductions in ET under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Changes in plant physiology induced by climate change may markedly affect water cycling and associated sediment and nutrient export. Results of this study highlight the importance of examining climate change impacts on water and nutrient delivery for effective watershed management.


Subject(s)
Climate Change , Conservation of Water Resources/trends , Models, Theoretical , Rivers/chemistry , Water Pollutants/analysis , Water Quality/standards , Hydrodynamics , Minnesota , Water Cycle , Wisconsin
13.
PLoS One ; 13(5): e0197510, 2018.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29813094

ABSTRACT

Accurate estimation of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) for maize canopies are important for maize growth monitoring and yield estimation. The goal of this study is to explore the potential of using airborne LiDAR and hyperspectral data to better estimate maize fPAR. This study focuses on estimating maize fPAR from (1) height and coverage metrics derived from airborne LiDAR point cloud data; (2) vegetation indices derived from hyperspectral imagery; and (3) a combination of these metrics. Pearson correlation analyses were conducted to evaluate the relationships among LiDAR metrics, hyperspectral metrics, and field-measured fPAR values. Then, multiple linear regression (MLR) models were developed using these metrics. Results showed that (1) LiDAR height and coverage metrics provided good explanatory power (i.e., R2 = 0.81); (2) hyperspectral vegetation indices provided moderate interpretability (i.e., R2 = 0.50); and (3) the combination of LiDAR metrics and hyperspectral metrics improved the LiDAR model (i.e., R2 = 0.88). These results indicate that LiDAR model seems to offer a reliable method for estimating maize fPAR at a high spatial resolution and it can be used for farmland management. Combining LiDAR and hyperspectral metrics led to better performance of maize fPAR estimation than LiDAR or hyperspectral metrics alone, which means that maize fPAR retrieval can benefit from the complementary nature of LiDAR-detected canopy structure characteristics and hyperspectral-captured vegetation spectral information.


Subject(s)
Remote Sensing Technology/methods , Zea mays/growth & development , Zea mays/radiation effects , Biomass , China , Lasers , Linear Models , Photosynthesis , Remote Sensing Technology/statistics & numerical data , Sunlight , Zea mays/metabolism
14.
Sci Total Environ ; 479-480: 138-50, 2014 May 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24561293

ABSTRACT

The development of effective measures to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration and mitigate negative impacts of climate change requires accurate quantification of the spatial variation and magnitude of the terrestrial carbon (C) flux. However, the spatial pattern and strength of terrestrial C sinks and sources remain uncertain. In this study, we designed a spatially-explicit agroecosystem modeling system by integrating the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model with multiple sources of geospatial and surveyed datasets (including crop type map, elevation, climate forcing, fertilizer application, tillage type and distribution, and crop planting and harvesting date), and applied it to examine the sensitivity of cropland C flux simulations to two widely used soil databases (i.e. State Soil Geographic-STATSGO of a scale of 1:250,000 and Soil Survey Geographic-SSURGO of a scale of 1:24,000) in Iowa, USA. To efficiently execute numerous EPIC runs resulting from the use of high resolution spatial data (56m), we developed a parallelized version of EPIC. Both STATSGO and SSURGO led to similar simulations of crop yields and Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) estimates at the State level. However, substantial differences were observed at the county and sub-county (grid) levels. In general, the fine resolution SSURGO data outperformed the coarse resolution STATSGO data for county-scale crop-yield simulation, and within STATSGO, the area-weighted approach provided more accurate results. Further analysis showed that spatial distribution and magnitude of simulated NEP were more sensitive to the resolution difference between SSURGO and STATSGO at the county or grid scale. For over 60% of the cropland areas in Iowa, the deviations between STATSGO- and SSURGO-derived NEP were larger than 1MgCha(-1)yr(-1), or about half of the average cropland NEP, highlighting the significant uncertainty in spatial distribution and magnitude of simulated C fluxes resulting from differences in soil data resolution.


Subject(s)
Carbon Cycle , Ecosystem , Environmental Monitoring/methods , Models, Theoretical , Soil/chemistry , Carbon , Geography
15.
Environ Pollut ; 173: 1-4, 2013 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23174345

ABSTRACT

Natural gas is the largest source of anthropogenic emissions of methane (CH(4)) in the United States. To assess pipeline emissions across a major city, we mapped CH(4) leaks across all 785 road miles in the city of Boston using a cavity-ring-down mobile CH(4) analyzer. We identified 3356 CH(4) leaks with concentrations exceeding up to 15 times the global background level. Separately, we measured δ(13)CH(4) isotopic signatures from a subset of these leaks. The δ(13)CH(4) signatures (mean = -42.8‰ ± 1.3‰ s.e.; n = 32) strongly indicate a fossil fuel source rather than a biogenic source for most of the leaks; natural gas sampled across the city had average δ(13)CH(4) values of -36.8‰ (± 0.7‰ s.e., n = 10), whereas CH(4) collected from landfill sites, wetlands, and sewer systems had δ(13)CH(4) signatures ~20‰ lighter (µ = -57.8‰, ± 1.6‰ s.e., n = 8). Repairing leaky natural gas distribution systems will reduce greenhouse gas emissions, increase consumer health and safety, and save money.


Subject(s)
Environmental Monitoring/methods , Methane/analysis , Natural Gas/analysis , Air Pollutants , Air Pollution/statistics & numerical data , Boston , Geographic Information Systems
16.
Accid Anal Prev ; 47: 36-44, 2012 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22405237

ABSTRACT

Rural roads carry less than fifty percent of the traffic in the United States. However, more than half of the traffic accident fatalities occurred on rural roads. This research focuses on analyzing injury severities involving single-vehicle crashes on rural roads, utilizing a latent class logit (LCL) model. Similar to multinomial logit (MNL) models, the LCL model has the advantage of not restricting the coefficients of each explanatory variable in different severity functions to be the same, making it possible to identify the impacts of the same explanatory variable on different injury outcomes. In addition, its unique model structure allows the LCL model to better address issues pertinent to the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. A MNL model is also included as the benchmark simply because of its popularity in injury severity modeling. The model fitting results of the MNL and LCL models are presented and discussed. Key injury severity impact factors are identified for rural single-vehicle crashes. Also, a comparison of the model fitting, analysis marginal effects, and prediction performance of the MNL and LCL models are conducted, suggesting that the LCL model may be another viable modeling alternative for crash-severity analysis.


Subject(s)
Accidents, Traffic/statistics & numerical data , Rural Population , Wounds and Injuries/epidemiology , Accidents, Traffic/mortality , Adult , Aged , Environment Design , Female , Florida , Humans , Logistic Models , Male , Middle Aged , Risk Factors , Trauma Severity Indices , Young Adult
17.
PLoS One ; 6(11): e27462, 2011.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22087321

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: A common challenge to the study of several infectious diseases consists in combining limited cross-sectional survey data, collected with a more sensitive detection method, with a more extensive (but biased) syndromic sentinel surveillance data, collected with a less sensitive method. Our article describes a novel modeling framework that overcomes this challenge, resulting in enhanced understanding of malaria in the Western Brazilian Amazon. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A cohort of 486 individuals was monitored using four cross-sectional surveys, where all participants were sampled regardless of symptoms (aggressive-active case detection), resulting in 1,383 microscopy and 1,400 polymerase chain reaction tests. Data on the same individuals were also obtained from the local surveillance facility (i.e., passive and active case detection), totaling 1,694 microscopy tests. Our model accommodates these multiple pathogen and case detection methods. This model is shown to outperform logistic regression in terms of interpretability of its parameters, ability to recover the true parameter values, and predictive performance. We reveal that the main infection determinant was the extent of forest, particularly during the rainy season and in close proximity to water bodies, and participation on forest activities. We find that time residing in Acrelandia (as a proxy for past malaria exposure) decreases infection risk but surprisingly increases the likelihood of reporting symptoms once infected, possibly because non-naïve settlers are only susceptible to more virulent Plasmodium strains. We suggest that the search for asymptomatic carriers should focus on those at greater risk of being infected but lower risk of reporting symptoms once infected. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The modeling framework presented here combines cross-sectional survey data and syndromic sentinel surveillance data to shed light on several aspects of malaria that are critical for public health policy. This framework can be adapted to enhance inference on infectious diseases whenever asymptomatic carriers are important and multiple datasets are available.


Subject(s)
Communicable Diseases/epidemiology , Health Surveys/methods , Malaria/epidemiology , Brazil/epidemiology , Cohort Studies , Databases, Factual , Humans , Malaria/etiology , Microscopy , Public Health , Risk Factors
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