Bias correction models for electronic health records data in the presence of non-random sampling.

Electronic health records (EHRs) contain rich clinical information for millions of patients and are increasingly used for public health research. However, non-random inclusion of subjects in EHRs can result in selection bias, with factors such as demographics, socioeconomic status, healthcare referral patterns, and underlying health status playing a role. While this issue has been well documented, little work has been done to develop or apply bias-correction methods, often due to the fact that most of these factors are unavailable in EHRs. To address this gap, we propose a series of Heckman type bias correction methods by incorporating social determinants of health selection covariates to model the EHR non-random sampling probability. Through simulations under various settings, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method in correcting biases in both the association coefficient and the outcome mean. Our method augments the utility of EHRs for public health inferences, as we show by estimating the prevalence of cardiovascular disease and its correlation with risk factors in the New York City network of EHRs.

A joint fairness model with applications to risk predictions for underrepresented populations.

In data collection for predictive modeling, underrepresentation of certain groups, based on gender, race/ethnicity, or age, may yield less accurate predictions for these groups. Recently, this issue of fairness in predictions has attracted significant attention, as data-driven models are increasingly utilized to perform crucial decision-making tasks. Existing methods to achieve fairness in the machine learning literature typically build a single prediction model in a manner that encourages fair prediction performance for all groups. These approaches have two major limitations: (i) fairness is often achieved by compromising accuracy for some groups; (ii) the underlying relationship between dependent and independent variables may not be the same across groups. We propose a joint fairness model (JFM) approach for logistic regression models for binary outcomes that estimates group-specific classifiers using a joint modeling objective function that incorporates fairness criteria for prediction. We introduce an accelerated smoothing proximal gradient algorithm to solve the convex objective function, and present the key asymptotic properties of the JFM estimates. Through simulations, we demonstrate the efficacy of the JFM in achieving good prediction performance and across-group parity, in comparison with the single fairness model, group-separate model, and group-ignorant model, especially when the minority group's sample size is small. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of the JFM method in a real-world example to obtain fair risk predictions for underrepresented older patients diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Risk and tropism of central nervous system (CNS) metastases in patients with stage II and III cutaneous melanoma.

BACKGROUND: Recent data suggest that patients with stage III melanoma are at high risk for developing central nervous system (CNS) metastases. Because a subset of patients with stage II melanoma experiences worse survival outcomes than some patients with stage III disease, the authors investigated the risk of CNS metastasis in stage II melanoma to inform surveillance guidelines for this population. METHODS: The authors examined clinicopathologic data prospectively collected from 1054 patients who had cutaneous melanoma. The χ2 test, the cumulative incidence, and Cox multivariable regression analyses were performed to evaluate the association between baseline characteristics and the development of CNS metastases. RESULTS: Patients with stage III melanoma had a higher rate of developing brain metastases than those with stage II melanoma (100 of 468 patients [21.4%] vs. 82 of 586 patients [14.0%], respectively; p = .002). However, patients who had stage IIC melanoma had a significantly higher rate of isolated first recurrences in the CNS compared with those who had stage III disease (12.1% vs. 3.6%; p = .002). The risk of ever developing brain metastases was similarly elevated for patients who had stage IIC disease (hazard ratio [HR], 3.16; 95% CI, 1.77-5.66), stage IIIB disease (HR, 2.83; 95% CI, 1.63-4.91), and stage IIIC disease (HR, 2.93; 95% CI, 1.81-4.74), and the risk was highest in patients who had stage IIID disease (HR, 8.59; 95% CI: 4.11-17.97). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with stage IIC melanoma are at elevated risk for first recurrence in the CNS. Surveillance strategies that incorporate serial neuroimaging should be considered for these individuals until more accurate predictive markers can be identified.

mTOR Inhibition with Sirolimus in Multiple System Atrophy: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Futility Trial and 1-Year Biomarker Longitudinal Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Multiple system atrophy (MSA) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease characterized by the aggregation of α-synuclein in glia and neurons. Sirolimus (rapamycin) is an mTOR inhibitor that promotes α-synuclein autophagy and reduces its associated neurotoxicity in preclinical models. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the efficacy and safety of sirolimus in patients with MSA using a futility design. We also analyzed 1-year biomarker trajectories in the trial participants. METHODS: Randomized, double-blind, parallel group, placebo-controlled clinical trial at the New York University of patients with probable MSA randomly assigned (3:1) to sirolimus (2-6 mg daily) for 48 weeks or placebo. Primary endpoint was change in the Unified MSA Rating Scale (UMSARS) total score from baseline to 48 weeks. (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03589976). RESULTS: The trial was stopped after a pre-planned interim analysis met futility criteria. Between August 15, 2018 and November 15, 2020, 54 participants were screened, and 47 enrolled and randomly assigned (35 sirolimus, 12 placebo). Of those randomized, 34 were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. There was no difference in change from baseline to week 48 between the sirolimus and placebo in UMSARS total score (mean difference, 2.66; 95% CI, -7.35-6.91; P = 0.648). There was no difference in UMSARS-1 and UMSARS-2 scores either. UMSARS scores changes were similar to those reported in natural history studies. Neuroimaging and blood biomarker results were similar in the sirolimus and placebo groups. Adverse events were more frequent with sirolimus. Analysis of 1-year biomarker trajectories in all participants showed that increases in blood neurofilament light chain (NfL) and reductions in whole brain volume correlated best with UMSARS progression. CONCLUSIONS: Sirolimus for 48 weeks was futile to slow the progression of MSA and had no effect on biomarkers compared to placebo. One-year change in blood NfL and whole brain atrophy are promising biomarkers of disease progression for future clinical trials. © 2022 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Treatment with therapeutic anticoagulation is not associated with immunotherapy response in advanced cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: Recent preclinical data suggest that there may be therapeutic synergy between immune checkpoint blockade and inhibition of the coagulation cascade. Here, we investigate whether patients who received immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) and were on concomitant anticoagulation (AC) experienced better treatment outcomes than individuals not on AC.Affiliation: Kindly confirm if corresponding authors affiliation is identified correctly.The corresponding author's affiliation is correct. METHODS: We studied a cohort of 728 advanced cancer patients who received 948 lines of ICI at NYU (2010-2020). Patients were classified based on whether they did (n = 120) or did not (n = 828) receive therapeutic AC at any point during their treatment with ICI. We investigated the relationship between AC status and multiple clinical endpoints including best overall response (BOR), objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR), progression free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and the incidence of bleeding complications.Affiliations: Journal instruction requires a country for affiliations; however, this is missing in affiliations 1 to 5. Please verify if the provided country is correct and amend if necessary.The country is correct for all affiliations (1 - 5). RESULTS: Treatment with AC was not associated with significantly different BOR (P = 0.80), ORR (P =0.60), DCR (P =0.77), PFS (P = 0.59), or OS (P =0.64). Patients who received AC were significantly more likely to suffer a major or clinically relevant minor bleed (P = 0.05). CONCLUSION: AC does not appear to impact the activity or efficacy of ICI in advanced cancer patients. On the basis of our findings, we caution that there is insufficient evidence to support prospectively evaluating the combination of AC and immunotherapy.

The ongoing racial disparities in melanoma: An analysis of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (1975-2016).

BACKGROUND: Although most patients with cutaneous melanoma are non-Hispanic whites (NHWs), minorities consistently suffer worse melanoma-specific survival (MSS). Much of the literature comes from analyses of registries from the 1990s and 2000s. OBJECTIVE: We sought to evaluate whether and to what degree racial disparity in MSS persists since 2010. METHODS: We analyzed 381,035 patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry. Race categories included Hispanic, NHW, non-Hispanic black (NHB), non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander (NHAPI), and non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native (NHAIAN). We evaluated the association between MSS and race in 3 time periods: before the year 2000, 2000 to 2009, and 2010 or later. NHW was the reference group for all analyses. RESULTS: Racial disparity worsened from before the year 2000 to 2010 or later for Hispanic (P < .001), NHB (P = .024), and NHAPI (P < .001) patients. Across all minority groups, patients with localized disease suffered increasing disparity (P = .010 for Hispanic, P < .001 for NHB, P = .023 for NHAPI, and P = .042 for NHAIAN patients). Among those with regional and distant disease, Hispanic patients were the only minority to experience worsening disparity (P = .001 and P = .019, respectively). LIMITATIONS: Lack of immunotherapy and targeted treatment information. CONCLUSIONS: Racial disparity in MSS is worsening. Improving postdiagnosis management for minorities with localized disease is imperative to mitigate disparity and improve survival.

Reinforcement learning assisted oxygen therapy for COVID-19 patients under intensive care.

BACKGROUND: Patients with severe Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) typically require supplemental oxygen as an essential treatment. We developed a machine learning algorithm, based on deep Reinforcement Learning (RL), for continuous management of oxygen flow rate for critically ill patients under intensive care, which can identify the optimal personalized oxygen flow rate with strong potentials to reduce mortality rate relative to the current clinical practice. METHODS: We modeled the oxygen flow trajectory of COVID-19 patients and their health outcomes as a Markov decision process. Based on individual patient characteristics and health status, an optimal oxygen control policy is learned by using deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG) and real-time recommends the oxygen flow rate to reduce the mortality rate. We assessed the performance of proposed methods through cross validation by using a retrospective cohort of 1372 critically ill patients with COVID-19 from New York University Langone Health ambulatory care with electronic health records from April 2020 to January 2021. RESULTS: The mean mortality rate under the RL algorithm is lower than the standard of care by 2.57% (95% CI: 2.08-3.06) reduction (P < 0.001) from 7.94% under the standard of care to 5.37% under our proposed algorithm. The averaged recommended oxygen flow rate is 1.28 L/min (95% CI: 1.14-1.42) lower than the rate delivered to patients. Thus, the RL algorithm could potentially lead to better intensive care treatment that can reduce the mortality rate, while saving the oxygen scarce resources. It can reduce the oxygen shortage issue and improve public health during the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: A personalized reinforcement learning oxygen flow control algorithm for COVID-19 patients under intensive care showed a substantial reduction in 7-day mortality rate as compared to the standard of care. In the overall cross validation cohort independent of the training data, mortality was lowest in patients for whom intensivists' actual flow rate matched the RL decisions.

Revisiting the association between skin toxicity and better response in advanced cancer patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors.

BACKGROUND: Immune checkpoint inhibition (ICI) improves survival outcomes for patients with several types of cancer including metastatic melanoma (MM), but serious immune-related adverse events requiring intervention with immunosuppressive medications occur in a subset of patients. Skin toxicity (ST) has been reported to be associated with better response to ICI. However, understudied factors, such as ST severity and potential survivor bias, may influence the strength of these observed associations. METHODS: To examine the potential confounding impact of such variables, we analyzed advanced cancer patients enrolled prospectively in a clinicopathological database with protocol-driven follow up and treated with ICI. We tested the associations between developing ST, stratified as no (n = 617), mild (n = 191), and severe (n = 63), and progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in univariable and multivariable analyses. We defined severe ST as a skin event that required treatment with systemic corticosteroids. To account for the possibility of longer survival associating with adverse events instead of the reverse, we treated ST as a time-dependent covariate in an adjusted model. RESULTS: Both mild and severe ST were significantly associated with improved PFS and OS (all P < 0.001). However, when adjusting for the time from treatment initiation to time of skin event, severe ST was not associated with PFS benefit both in univariable and multivariable analyses (P = 0.729 and P = 0.711, respectively). Receiving systemic steroids for ST did not lead to significant differences in PFS or OS compared to patients who did not receive systemic steroids. CONCLUSIONS: Our data reveal the influence of time to event and its severity as covariates in analyzing the relationship between ST and ICI outcomes. These differences in outcomes cannot be solely explained by the use of immunosuppressive medications, and thus highlight the importance of host- and disease-intrinsic factors in determining ICI response and toxicity. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The patient data used in this manuscript come from patients who were prospectively enrolled in two institutional review board-approved databases at NYU Langone Health (institutional review board #10362 and #S16-00122).

Low left ventricular outflow tract velocity time integral is associated with poor outcomes in acute pulmonary embolism.

The left ventricular outflow tract (LVOT) velocity time integral (VTI) is an easily measured echocardiographic stroke volume index analog. Low values predict adverse outcomes in left ventricular failure. We postulate the left ventricular VTI may be a signal of right ventricular dysfunction in acute pulmonary embolism, and therefore a predictor of poor outcomes. We retrospectively reviewed echocardiograms on all Pulmonary Embolism Response Team activations at our institution at the time of pulmonary embolism diagnosis. Low LVOT VTI was defined as ⩽ 15 cm. We examined two composite outcomes: (1) in-hospital death or cardiac arrest; and (2) shock or need for primary reperfusion therapies. Sixty-one of 188 patients (32%) had a LVOT VTI of ⩽ 15 cm. Low VTI was associated with in-hospital death or cardiac arrest (odds ratio (OR) 6, 95% CI 2, 17.9; p = 0.0014) and shock or need for reperfusion (OR 23.3, 95% CI 6.6, 82.1; p < 0.0001). In a multivariable model, LVOT VTI ⩽ 15 remained significant for death or cardiac arrest (OR 3.48, 95% CI 1.02, 11.9; p = 0.047) and for shock or need for reperfusion (OR 8.12, 95% CI 1.62, 40.66; p = 0.011). Among intermediate-high-risk patients, low VTI was the only variable associated with the composite outcome of death, cardiac arrest, shock, or need for reperfusion (OR 14, 95% CI 1.7, 118.4; p = 0.015). LVOT VTI is associated with adverse short-term outcomes in acute pulmonary embolism. The VTI may help risk stratify patients with intermediate-high-risk pulmonary embolism.

Fragmentation of care as a barrier to optimal ESKD management.

Caring for patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in the United States is challenging, due in part to the complex epidemiology of the disease's progression as well as the ways in which care is delivered. As CKD progresses toward ESKD, the number of comorbidities increases and care involves multiple healthcare providers from multiple subspecialties. This occurs in the context of a fragmented US healthcare delivery system that is traditionally siloed by provider specialty, organization, as well as systems of payment and administration. This article describes the role of care fragmentation in the delivery of optimal ESKD care and identifies research gaps in the evidence across the continuum of care. We then consider the impact of care fragmentation on ESKD care from the patient and health system perspectives and explore opportunities for system-level interventions aimed at improving care for patients with ESKD.

Association of depressive symptoms with decline of cognitive function-Rugao longevity and ageing study.

Cognitive decline is a central feature in the aging process. Previous studies have indicated an association between depressive symptoms and cognitive decline in Caucasian populations. However, few studies have examined the effect of changes in depression on the trajectory of cognitive decline. Here, we included 580 participants with normal cognitive ability and complete cognitive and depression data from the Rugao Longevity and Ageing Study (RuLAS). We explored the relationship between depressive symptoms and cognitive decline in these participants. We examined how the change in depressive symptoms affected the trajectory in the HDS-R (the Revised Hasegawa Dementia Scale) scores by comparing cognition function in both the depression deterioration group and the depression steady group by using a linear mixed model. The results indicated that those with deteriorating depression tended to have faster cognitive declines than those with steady depression, indicated by the significance of the interaction term of GDS (Geriatric Depression Scale) groups and time (unadjusted model, ß = - 0.673, p < 0.001). The results remained significant after adding demographic covariates. Moreover, we found that those with the worst depressive symptoms at baseline had the worst cognition in subsequent years (GDS = 0 group vs. GDS ≥ group in the unadjusted model: ß = - 1.522, p < 0.003), while the slope of change was not significantly different among groups (GDS = 0 group × time vs. GDS > =4 group × time in the unadjusted model: ß = - 0.045, p = 0.857). Therefore, we found that depressive symptom deterioration was significantly associated with faster cognitive decline. Medical interventions for depression may decrease the number of older Chinese individuals who experience early-stage cognitive decline.

Elevated GlycA in severe obesity is normalized by bariatric surgery.

Chronic inflammation drives many obesity-associated conditions including atherosclerosis. GlycA, a marker of systemic inflammation with lower intra-individual variability than high sensitivity C-reactive protein, is independently associated with incident cardiovascular events and mortality. Although GlycA is elevated in obesity, correlations with anthropometric measures are modest and the effect of body weight loss on GlycA is untested. Obese (body mass index [BMI] 44.6 ± 6.6 kg/m2 ), non-diabetic women (33.7 ± 8.2 years) undergoing Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (n = 23) or sleeve gastrectomy (n = 31) were prospectively studied at baseline, 6 and 12 months postprocedure. Women with normal BMI (n = 14) served as controls. Bariatric surgery significantly reduced GlycA by 6 months (451 ± 47 µmol/L vs. 383 ± 50 µmol/L; P < 0.001) with further reduction at 12 months (348 ± 41 µmol/L; P < 0.001) and no difference between procedures. At 12 months, despite 41% of surgical subjects maintaining BMI >30 kg/m2 , GlycA levels did not differ between surgical and control subjects (P = 0.13). Increased high density lipoprotein particle size was strongly associated with reduced GlycA (r = -0.49; P < 0.001) and was found to mediate up to 43% of its body weight-loss-associated fall. This is the first study to demonstrate that surgical body weight loss markedly reduces levels of GlycA.

Investigation of Motivational Interviewing and Prevention Consults to Achieve Cardiovascular Targets (IMPACT) trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients undergoing cardiovascular (CV) procedures often have suboptimal CV risk factor control and may benefit from strategies targeting healthy lifestyle behaviors and education. Implementation of prevention strategies may be particularly effective at this point of heightened motivation. METHODS: A prospective, randomized, pilot study was conducted in 400 patients undergoing a nonurgent CV procedure (cardiac catheterization ± revascularization) to evaluate the impact of different prevention strategies. Patients were randomized in a 1:1:1 fashion to usual care (UC; group A, n = 134), in-hospital CV prevention consult (PC; group B, n = 130), or PC plus behavioral intervention program (telephone-based motivational interviewing and optional tailored text messages) (group C, n = 133). The primary end point was the Δ change in non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C) from baseline to 6 month. RESULTS: The mean age was 64.6 ± 10.8 years, 23.7% were female, and 31.5% were nonwhite. After 6 months, the absolute difference in non-HDL-C for all participants was -19.8 mg/dL (95% CI -24.1 to -15.6, P < .001). There were no between-group differences in the primary end point for the combined PC groups (B and C) versus UC, with a Δ adjusted between group difference of -5.5 mg/dL (95% CI -13.1 to 2.1, P = .16). Patients in the PC groups were more likely to be on high-intensity statins at 6 months (52.9% vs 38.1%, P = .01). After excluding participants with baseline non-HDL-C <100 mg/dL (initial exclusion criterion), Δ non-HDL-C and Δ low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were improved in the PC groups compared to UC (non-HDL-C -8.13 mg/dL [-16.00 to -0.27], P = .04; low-density lipoprotein cholesterol -7.87mg/dL [-15.10 to -0.64], P = .03). CONCLUSIONS: Although non-HDL-C reduction at 6 months following a nonurgent CV procedure was not significant in the overall cohort, an increased uptake in high-potency statins may translate into improved long-term health outcomes and cost reductions.

Average e' velocity on transthoracic echocardiogram is a novel predictor of left atrial appendage sludge or thrombus in patients with atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Studies have demonstrated the value of transthoracic echocardiogram (TTE) diastolic parameters in predicting left atrial appendage (LAA) thrombus; however, these studies have been small. We aim to clarify the relationship between TTE diastolic parameters, in particular average e', and LAA thrombus or sludge. METHODS: A case-control review was conducted of subjects with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (n = 2263) who had undergone TEE (transesophageal echocardiogram) and had a TTE within 1 year of TEE. Cases of LAA sludge or thrombus were matched to controls by age, sex, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and anticoagulation status. RESULTS: Forty-three subjects (mean age 73 ± 12, 65% male, LVEF 47%, 44% on anticoagulation) with LAA sludge or thrombus were identified. Compared to matched controls, average TTE e' (7.3 ± 2.1 cm/s vs 8.7 ± 2.1 cm/s, P < 0.001) and the E:e' ratio (15 ± 7 cm/s vs 12 ± 5 cm/s; P = 0.005) were significant predictors of LAA sludge or thrombus. Average TTE e' value of >11 cm/s had 100% sensitivity for ruling out LAA sludge or thrombus. CONCLUSION: In individuals with atrial fibrillation, average e' >11 cm/s on TTE is a promising independent predictor of the absence of LAA sludge or thrombus on TEE.

Impact of aging on host immune response and survival in melanoma: an analysis of 3 patient cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Age has been reported as an independent prognostic factor for melanoma-specific survival (MSS). We tested the hypothesis that age impacts the host anti-tumor immune response, accounting for age-specific survival outcomes in three unique melanoma patient cohorts. METHODS: We queried the U.S. population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER), the prospective tertiary care hospital-based Interdisciplinary Melanoma Cooperative Group (IMCG) biorepository, and the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) biospecimen database to test the association of patient age at time of melanoma diagnosis with clinicopathologic features and survival outcomes. Age groups were defined as ≤45 (young), 46-65 (intermediate), and >65 (older). Each age group in the IMCG and TCGA cohorts was stratified by tumor infiltrating lymphocyte (TIL) measurements and tested for association with MSS. Differential expression of 594 immunoregulatory genes was assessed in a subset of primary melanomas in the IMCG and TCGA cohorts using an integrative pathway analysis. RESULTS: We analyzed 304, 476 (SEER), 1241 (IMCG), and 292 (TCGA) patients. Increasing age at melanoma diagnosis in both the SEER and IMCG cohorts demonstrated a positive correlation with tumor thickness, ulceration, stage, and mortality, however age in the TCGA cohort did not correlate with mortality. Older age was associated with shorter MSS in all three cohorts. When the young age group in both the IMCG and TCGA cohorts was stratified by TIL status, there were no differences in MSS. However, older IMCG patients with brisk TILs and intermediate aged TCGA patients with high lymphocyte scores (3-6) had improved MSS. Gene expression analysis revealed top pathways (T cell trafficking, communication, and differentiation) and top upstream regulators (CD3, CD28, IFNG, and STAT3) that significantly changed with age in 84 IMCG and 43 TCGA primary melanomas. CONCLUSIONS: Older age at time of melanoma diagnosis is associated with shorter MSS, however age's association with clinicopathologic features is dependent upon specific characteristics of the study population. TIL as a read-out of the host immune response may have greater prognostic impact in patients older than age 45. Recognition of age-related factors negatively impacting host immune responses may provide new insights into therapeutic strategies for the elderly.

Impact of Socioeconomic Status and Ethnicity on Melanoma Presentation and Recurrence in Caucasian Patients.

OBJECTIVES: The impact of ethnicity and the socioeconomic status (SES) among Caucasians is not well studied. Here, we examine the impact of income on melanoma presentation and prognosis within a Caucasian cohort, accounting for ethnicity, as some reports suggest increased melanoma incidence in Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) BRCA mutation carriers. METHODS: We studied prospectively enrolled primary melanoma patients at New York University. SES data were estimated using United States' Census Bureau data and patient zip codes. We evaluated associations between ethnicity, SES, and baseline characteristics using the χ² test and multivariate logistic regression. We compared survival distributions using Kaplan-Meier curves, log-rank tests, and Cox proportional hazard ratios. RESULTS: Of the 1,339 enrolled patients, AJ represented 32% (n = 423). Apart from AJ being older at presentation (p < 0.001), no significant differences were observed in baseline characteristics between ethnic groups. Patients with a median household income (MHI) lower than the median of the cohort were significantly more likely to present with advanced stages (p < 0.001) compared to patients with a higher MHI. Shorter overall (p = 0.016) and post-recurrence survival (p = 0.042) was also observed in patients from lower-income households. CONCLUSION: Data suggest that disparities in melanoma presentation in Caucasians stratify according to income independent of ethnic background.

Serum-based miRNAs in the prediction and detection of recurrence in melanoma patients.

BACKGROUND: Identification of primary melanoma patients at the highest risk of recurrence remains a critical challenge, and monitoring for recurrent disease is limited to costly imaging studies. We recently reported our array-based discovery of prognostic serum miRNAs in melanoma. In the current study, we examined the clinical utility of these serum-based miRNAs for prognosis as well as detection of melanoma recurrence. METHODS: Serum levels of 12 miRNAs were tested using qRT-PCR at diagnosis in 283 melanoma patients (training cohort, n = 201; independent validation, n = 82; median follow-up, 68.8 months). A refined miRNA signature was chosen and evaluated. We also tested the potential clinical utility of the miRNAs in early detection and monitoring of recurrence using multiple longitudinal samples (pre- and postrecurrence) in a subset of 82 patients (n = 225). In addition, we integrated our miRNA signature with publicly available Cancer Genome Atlas data to examine the relevance of these miRNAs to melanoma biology. RESULTS: Four miRNAs (miR-150, miR-30d, miR-15b, and miR-425) in combination with stage separated patients by recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) and improved prediction of recurrence over stage alone in both the training and validation cohorts (training RFS and OS, P < .001; validation RFS, P < .001; OS, P = .005). Serum miR-15b levels significantly increased over time in recurrent patients (P < .001), adjusting for endogenous controls as well as age, sex, and initial stage. In nonrecurrent patients, miR-15b levels were not significantly changed with time (P =.17). CONCLUSIONS: Data demonstrate that serum miRNAs can improve melanoma patient stratification over stage and support further testing of miR-15b to guide patient surveillance.

Analysis of recurrence patterns in acral versus nonacral melanoma: should histologic subtype influence treatment guidelines?

Current surgical treatment of primary melanoma is uniform for all histosubtypes, although certain types of melanoma, such as acral lentiginous melanoma (ALM), have a worse prognosis. No study has explored the effectiveness of standard melanoma treatment guidelines for managing ALM compared with nonacral melanoma (NAM). Study subjects were identified from a prospectively enrolled database of patients with primary melanoma at New York University. Patients with ALM were matched to those with NAM (1:3) by gender and melanoma stage, including substage (ALM, 61; NAM, 183). All patients received standard-of-care treatment. Recurrence and survival outcomes in both cohorts were compared. ALM histologic subtype was an independent negative predictor of recurrence-free survival (hazard ratio [HR], 2.24; P=.001) and melanoma-specific survival (HR, 2.58; P=.001) compared with NAM. Recurrence was significantly more common in patients with ALM than in those with NAM (49% vs 30%; P=.007). For tumors less than 2 mm in thickness, a significantly higher recurrence rate was seen with ALM versus NAM (P=.048). No significant difference was seen in recurrence for tumors greater than 2 mm (P=.12). Notably, the rate of locoregional recurrence was nearly double for ALM compared with NAM (P=.001). The data presented herein reveal a high rate of locoregional failure in ALM compared with NAM when controlling for AJCC stage. These results raise the question of whether ALM may require more aggressive surgical treatment than nonacral cutaneous melanomas of equal thickness, particularly in tumors less than 2 mm thick. Larger multicenter trials are necessary for further conclusions.

Model-based estimation of individual-level social determinants of health and its applications in All of Us.

OBJECTIVES: We introduce a widely applicable model-based approach for estimating individual-level Social Determinants of Health (SDoH) and evaluate its effectiveness using the All of Us Research Program. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Our approach utilizes aggregated SDoH datasets to estimate individual-level SDoH, demonstrated with examples of no high school diploma (NOHSDP) and no health insurance (UNINSUR) variables. Models are estimated using American Community Survey data and applied to derive individual-level estimates for All of Us participants. We assess concordance between model-based SDoH estimates and self-reported SDoHs in All of Us and examine associations with undiagnosed hypertension and diabetes. RESULTS: Compared to self-reported SDoHs, the area under the curve for NOHSDP is 0.727 (95% CI, 0.724-0.730) and for UNINSUR is 0.730 (95% CI, 0.727-0.733) among the 329 074 All of Us participants, both significantly higher than aggregated SDoHs. The association between model-based NOHSDP and undiagnosed hypertension is concordant with those estimated using self-reported NOHSDP, with a correlation coefficient of 0.649. Similarly, the association between model-based NOHSDP and undiagnosed diabetes is concordant with those estimated using self-reported NOHSDP, with a correlation coefficient of 0.900. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: The model-based SDoH estimation method offers a scalable and easily standardized approach for estimating individual-level SDoHs. Using the All of Us dataset, we demonstrate reasonable concordance between model-based SDoH estimates and self-reported SDoHs, along with consistent associations with health outcomes. Our findings also underscore the critical role of geographic contexts in SDoH estimation and in evaluating the association between SDoHs and health outcomes.

Social Isolation Changes and Long-Term Outcomes Among Older Adults.

Importance: While the association between cross-sectional measures of social isolation and adverse health outcomes is well established, less is known about the association between changes in social isolation and health outcomes. Objective: To assess changes of social isolation and mortality, physical function, cognitive function, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and stroke. Design, Setting, and Participants: In a cohort design, social isolation changes in 4 years and subsequent risk of mortality and other outcomes were assessed using the 13 649 eligible Health and Retirement Study (HRS) respondents from the 2006 to 2020 waves. Data were analyzed from October 11, 2023, to April 26, 2024. Exposure: The main exposure was the change in social isolation measured by the Steptoe 5-item Social Isolation Index from the initial assessment to a second assessment conducted 4 years later. Participants were classified into decreased isolation, stable, or increased isolation groups, stratified by their baseline isolation status. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were mortality, self-reported dependencies in activities of daily living, Alzheimer disease and Alzheimer disease-related dementia, CVD, and stroke. Dementia, CVD, and stroke were assessed using HRS-linked Medicare records. Incidence rates (IRs) of each group were estimated and a Cox proportional hazards regression model was used, with inverse-probability treatment weighting to adjust for confounders. Results: Among 13 649 participants (mean [SD] age at baseline, 65.3 [9.5] years; 8011 [58.7%] women) isolated at baseline, those with increased isolation had higher mortality (n = 693; IR = 68.19; 95% CI, 60.89-76.36 per 1000 person-years) than those who were stable (n = 1796; IR = 44.02; 95% CI, 40.47-47.88 person-years) or had decreased isolation (n = 2067; IR = 37.77; 95% CI, 34.73-41.09 person-years) isolation. Increased isolation was associated with higher risks of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 1.29; 95% CI, 1.09-1.51), disability (AHR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.09-1.67), and dementia (AHR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.02-1.93) compared with stable isolation. Similar findings were observed among socially nonisolated participants at baseline. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, increased isolation was associated with elevated risks of mortality, disability, and dementia, irrespective of baseline isolation status. These results underscore the importance of interventions targeting the prevention of increased isolation among older adults to mitigate its adverse effects on mortality, as well as physical and cognitive function decline.