Projection of Mortality Burden Attributable to Nonoptimum Temperature with High Spatial Resolution in China.

The updated climate models provide projections at a fine scale, allowing us to estimate health risks due to future warming after accounting for spatial heterogeneity. Here, we utilized an ensemble of high-resolution (25 km) climate simulations and nationwide mortality data from 306 Chinese cities to estimate death anomalies attributable to future warming. Historical estimation (1986-2014) reveals that about 15.5% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI):13.1%, 17.6%] of deaths are attributable to nonoptimal temperature, of which heat and cold corresponded to attributable fractions of 4.1% (eCI:2.4%, 5.5%) and 11.4% (eCI:10.7%, 12.1%), respectively. Under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), the national average temperature was projected to increase by 1.45, 2.57, and 4.98 °C by the 2090s, respectively. The corresponding mortality fractions attributable to heat would be 6.5% (eCI:5.2%, 7.7%), 7.9% (eCI:6.3%, 9.4%), and 11.4% (eCI:9.2%, 13.3%). More than half of the attributable deaths due to future warming would occur in north China and cardiovascular mortality would increase more drastically than respiratory mortality. Our study shows that the increased heat-attributable mortality burden would outweigh the decreased cold-attributable burden even under a moderate climate change scenario across China. The results are helpful for national or local policymakers to better address the challenges of future warming.

Differential associations of fine and coarse particulate air pollution with cause-specific pneumonia mortality: A nationwide, individual-level, case-crossover study.

BACKGROUND: The connections between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and coarse particulate matter (PM2.5-10) and daily mortality of viral pneumonia and bacterial pneumonia were unclear. OBJECTIVES: To distinguish the connections between PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 and daily mortality due to viral pneumonia and bacterial pneumonia. METHODS: Using a comprehensive national death registry encompassing all areas of mainland China, we conducted a case-crossover investigation from 2013 to 2019 at an individual level. Residential daily particle concentrations were evaluated using satellite-based models with a spatial resolution of 1 km. To analyze the data, we employed the conditional logistic regression model in conjunction with polynomial distributed lag models. RESULTS: We included 221,507 pneumonia deaths in China. Every interquartile range (IQR) elevation in concentrations of PM2.5 (lag 0-2 d, 37.6 µg/m3) was associated with higher magnitude of mortality for viral pneumonia (3.03%) than bacterial pneumonia (2.14%), whereas the difference was not significant (p-value for difference = 0.38). An IQR increase in concentrations of PM2.5-10 (lag 0-2 d, 28.4 µg/m3) was also linked to higher magnitude of mortality from viral pneumonia (3.06%) compared to bacterial pneumonia (2.31%), whereas the difference was not significant (p-value for difference = 0.52). After controlling for gaseous pollutants, their effects were all stable; however, with mutual adjustment, the associations of PM2.5 remained, and those of PM2.5-10 were no longer statistically significant. Greater magnitude of associations was noted in individuals aged 75 years and above, as well as during the cold season. CONCLUSION: This nationwide study presents compelling evidence that both PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 exposures could increase pneumonia mortality of viral and bacterial causes, highlighting the more robust effects of PM2.5 and somewhat higher sensitivity of viral pneumonia.

Light at night and cause-specific mortality risk in Mainland China: a nationwide observational study.

BACKGROUND: While epidemiological studies have found correlations between light at night (LAN) and health effects, none has so far investigated the impacts of LAN on population mortality yet. We aimed to estimate the relative risk for mortality from exposure to LAN in Mainland China. METHODS: This time-stratified case-crossover nationwide study used NPP-VIIRS to obtain daily LAN data of Mainland China between 2015 and 2019. The daily mortality data were obtained from the Disease Surveillance Point System in China. Conditional Poisson regression models were applied to examine the relative risk (RR) for mortality along daily LAN in each county, then meta-analysis was performed to combine the county-specific estimates at the national or regional level. RESULTS: A total of 579 counties with an average daily LAN of 4.39 (range: 1.02-35.46) were included in the main analysis. The overall RRs per 100 nW/cm2/sr increases in daily LAN were 1.08 (95%CI: 1.05-1.11) for all-cause mortality and 1.08 (95%CI: 1.05-1.11) for natural-cause mortality. A positive association between LAN and all natural cause-specific mortality was observed, of which the strongest effect was observed on mortality caused by neuron system disease (RR = 1.32, 95%CI: 1.14-1.52). The results were robust in both younger and old, as well as in males and females. The more pronounced effect of LAN was observed in median LAN-level regions. Combined with an exposure-response curve, our study suggests a non-linear association between LAN and mortality in China. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows LAN is associated with mortality in China, particularly for neuron system disease-related mortality. These findings have important implications for public health policy establishment to minimize the health consequences of light pollution.

Mortality and years of life lost due to pancreatic cancer in China, its provinces, urban and rural areas from 2005 to 2020: results from the national mortality surveillance system.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer is a growing public health concern in China, and depicting it from different perspectives would provide a comprehensive understanding of its epidemiological characteristics. METHODS: Data from the National Mortality Surveillance System (NMSS) in China was used to estimate the number of deaths, years of life lost (YLL), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized YLL rate in China, its provinces and urban-rural areas from 2005 to 2020. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to explore the temporal trends of ASMR and age-standardized YLL rate. Decomposition analysis was conducted to assess the contribution of population growth, population aging and cause-specific mortality rate to the increment of pancreatic cancer deaths. RESULTS: A total of 100,427 pancreatic cancer deaths and 2,166,355 pancreatic cancer related YLL were estimated in China in 2020. The overall ASMR significantly increased from 6.6/100 000 in 2005 to 7.4/100 000 in 2020, and was higher in men than that in women. Age-standardized YLL rate showed a similar trend. The mortality rates of pancreatic cancer were generally higher in northeast China than in southwest China. The highest ASMRs were found in Jilin, Zhejiang, Inner Mongolia and Anhui, and the lowest ones in Guangxi, Yunnan, Tibet, and Hainan. The disease burden due to pancreatic cancer presented a significant upward trend in rural areas and a downward trend in urban areas. CONCLUSIONS: The burden associated with pancreatic cancer had been increasing in China from 2005 to 2020. The escalating disease burden of pancreatic cancer in rural areas necessitates the implementation of effective control and prevention measures. Relevant provinces should pay greater attention to the prevailing of pancreatic cancer, particularly those exhibiting higher mortality rates.

Burden of liver complications related to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in China from 2005 to 2019: Observations from the Global Burden of Disease Study, 2019.

AIM: To assess the burden of liver complications related to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (LC-NAFLD) from 2005 to 2019 in China. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used data from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, 2019, to present contemporary and varying profiles of China's LC-NAFLD burden. The Joinpoint Regression model and Gaussian process regression were, respectively, used to estimate the annual percentage change in prevalence rates and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates, and the relationship between the sociodemographic index (SDI) and age-standardized rates of LC-NAFLD. RESULTS: In 2019, China had 293.42 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 263.69-328.44) LC-NAFLD cases with a prevalence rate and DALYs of 20.63 (95% UI: 23.09-18.54) per 1000 people and 591.03 thousand (95% UI: 451.25-737.33), respectively. North China had the highest prevalence but the lowest DALYs of LC-NAFLD, whereas Southwest China had the lowest prevalence but the highest DALYs. LC-NAFLD were more common in men than in women (male: female ratio, 1.27) in 2019. From 2005 to 2019, the prevalence of NAFLD cases increased by 68.32% (from 174.32 million in 2005 to 293.42 million in 2019), mainly because of an age-specific prevalence rate increase. CONCLUSION: The LC-NAFLD burden in China is substantial and has increased markedly over the past 15 years. Effective measures for low SDI regions and men are needed to address the rapidly increasing NAFLD burden.

Trends in insufficient physical activity among adults in China 2010-18: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The global prevalence of insufficient physical activity (PA) was reported to be 27.5% in 2016, and there were stable levels of insufficient PA worldwide between 2001 and 2016. The global target of a 10% reduction in insufficient PA by 2025 will not be met if the trends remain. The relevant data for trends in China were still scarce. This study aimed to determine nationwide temporal trends in insufficient PA among adults in China from 2010 to 2018. METHODS: 645 903 adults aged 18 years or older were randomly selected from four nationally representative cross-sectional surveys of the China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance conducted in 2010, 2013, 2015, and 2018. PA was measured using the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire. Temporal changes in insufficient PA prevalence and participation of domain-specific moderate- to vigorous-intensity PA (MVPA) were analyzed using logistic regression. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2018, the age-adjusted prevalence of insufficient PA in China increased from 17.9% (95% confidence interval 16.3% to 19.5%) in 2010 to 22.3% (20.9% to 23.8%) in 2018 (P for trend < 0.001). By age group, with a significant increase in insufficient PA in adults aged 18-34 years (P for trend < 0.001), which rose more rapidly than in adults aged ≥ 35 years (P for interaction < 0.001). Insufficient PA has increased significantly among adults engaged in agriculture-related work, non-manual work, and other manual work (all P for trend < 0.05). And among the occupational groups, those engaged in agriculture-related work had the fastest increase (P for interaction = 0.01). The percentage of adults participating in work-related MVPA decreased from 79.6% (77.8% to 81.5%) to 66.8% (64.9% to 68.7%) along with a decrease in time spent on work-related MVPA, while percentages of adults participating in recreation-related MVPA increased from 14.2% (12.5% to 15.9%) to 17.2% (16.0% to 18.4%) (all P for trend < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Among Chinese adults, an increasing trend was found in insufficient PA from 2010 to 2018, with more than one-fifth of adults failing to achieve the recommendation of adequate PA. More targeted PA promotion strategies should be developed to improve population health.

Disability weight measurement for the severity of different diseases in Wuhan, China.

BACKGROUND: Measurement of the Chinese burden of disease with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) requires disability weight (DW) that quantify health losses for all non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 DW study indicates that it is limited by lack of geographic variation in DW data and by the current measurement methodology. We aim to estimate DW for a set of health states from major diseases in the Wuhan population. METHODS: We conducted the DW measurement study for 206 health states through a household survey with computer-assisted face-to-face interviews and a web-based survey. Based on GBD 2013 DW study, paired comparison (PC) and Population health equivalence (PHE) method was used and different PC/PHE questions were randomly assigned to each respondent. In statistical analysis, the PC data was analyzed by probit regression. The probit regression results will be anchored by results from the PHE data analyzed by interval regression on the DW scale units between 0 (no loss of health) and 1 (loss equivalent to death). RESULTS: A total of 2610 and 3140 individuals were included in the household and web-based survey, respectively. The results from the total pooled data showed health state "mild anemia" (DW = 0.005, 95% UI 0.000-0.027) or "allergic rhinitis (hay fever)" (0.005, 95% UI 0.000-0.029) had the lowest DW and "heroin and other opioid dependence, severe" had the highest DW (0.699, 95% UI 0.579-0.827). A high correlation coefficient (Pearson's r = 0.876; P < 0.001) for DWs of same health states was observed between Wuhan's survey and GBD 2013 DW survey. Health states referred to mental symptom, fatigue, and the residual category of other physical symptoms were statistically significantly associated with a lower Wuhan's DWs than the GBD's DWs. Health states with disfigurement and substance use symptom had a higher DW in Wuhan population than the GBD 2013 study. CONCLUSIONS: This set of DWs could be used to calculate local diseases burden for health policy-decision in Wuhan population. The DW differences between the GBD's survey and Wuhan's survey suggest that there might be some contextual or culture factors influencing assessment on the severity of diseases.

National incidence and mortality of hospitalized sepsis in China.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is a leading cause of preventable death around the world. Population-based estimation of sepsis incidence is lacking in China. In this study, we aimed to estimate the population-based incidence and geographic variation of hospitalized sepsis in China. METHODS: We retrospectively identified hospitalized sepsis from the nationwide National Data Center for Medical Service (NDCMS) and the National Mortality Surveillance System (NMSS) by ICD-10 codes for the period from 2017 to 2019. In-hospital sepsis case fatality and mortality rate were calculated to extrapolate the national incidence of hospitalized sepsis. The geographic distribution of hospitalized sepsis incidence was examined using Global Moran's Index. RESULTS: We identified 9,455,279 patients with 10,682,625 implicit-coded sepsis admissions in NDCMS and 806,728 sepsis-related deaths in NMSS. We estimated that the annual standardized incidence of hospitalized sepsis was 328.25 (95% CI 315.41-341.09), 359.26 (95% CI 345.4-373.12) and 421.85 (95% CI 406.65-437.05) cases per 100,000 in 2017, 2018 and 2019, respectively. We observed 8.7% of the incidences occurred among neonates less than 1 year old, 11.7% among children aged 1-9 years, and 57.5% among elderly older than 65 years. Significant spatial autocorrelation for incidence of hospitalized sepsis was observed across China (Moran's Index 0.42, p = 0.001; 0.45, p = 0.001; 0.26, p = 0.011 for 2017, 2018, 2019, respectively). Higher number of hospital bed supply and higher disposable income per capita were significantly associated with a higher incidence of hospitalized sepsis. CONCLUSION: Our study showed a greater burden of sepsis hospitalizations than previous estimated. The geographical disparities suggested more efforts were needed in prevention of sepsis.

Evaluating the effectiveness of implementing a more severe law on prevention of road traffic injury mortality in mainland China: an interrupted time series study based on national mortality surveillance.

BACKGROUND: In China, road traffic injury (RTI) is the seventh-leading cause of death More than 1.5 million adults in China live with permanent disabilities due to road traffic accidents. In 2011, the Chinese government implemented a more severe law that increased the penalty points and fines for persons charged with drink-driving as a criminal offence. OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated the short-term and long-term effects of the drink-driving law. It also aimed to establish whether punishments of increased severity resulted in greater reductions in RTI mortality. METHODS: RTI mortality data was obtained from the Disease Surveillance Points System. A two-level interrupted time series model was used to analyse daily and monthly road traffic mortality rates, accounting for the varying trends among counties. RESULTS: The overall RTI mortality rate showed a decreasing trend from 2007 to 2015 in mainland China, especially after 2011, and similarly decreasing trends were noted among males and females and in urban and rural areas. After the Criminal Law and Road Traffic Law amendment was implemented in 2011, charging drink-driving as a criminal offence, the immediate daily RTI mortality rate reduced by 1.57% (RR=0.9843, 95% CI: 0.9444 to 1.0259), while the slope change significantly decreased by 0.04% (RR=0.9996, 95% CI: 0.9994 to 0.9997) compared with the period before the Law was revised. Stratified analysis showed that the effect size of the law was higher for males in urban and high socioeconomic circumstances (SEC) than females in rural and low and moderate SEC. Meanwhile, the increase in penalty points for dangerous driving behaviours showed no significant effects. CONCLUSION: Evidence was found that charging criminal responsibility for drink-driving is associated with reducing RTI deaths in China.

Can global or national disability weights represent provincial level?

BACKGROUND: A universal set of disability weights(DWs) is mainly based on the survey of North America, Australia and Europe, whereas the participants in Asia was limited. The debate hasn't yet settled whether a universal DW is desirable or useful.The focus of the debate is its representativenes-s.After all, the DWs come from people's subjective evaluation of pain, and they may vary according to cultural background.The differences of the DWs could have implications for the magnitude or ranking of disease burdens.The DWs of Anhui Province has not been completely presented.This paper aims to obtain the DWs suitable for the general population of Anhui Province of China, and attempts to explore the differences between different DWs by comparing the DWs with the similar-cultural background and the DWs with cross-cultural background. METHODS: A web-based survey was conducted to estimate the DWs for 206 health states of Anhui province in 2020. Paired comparison (PC) data were analyzed and anchored by probit regression and fitting loess model. We compared the DWs in Anhui with other provinces in China and those in Global burden of disease (GBD) and Japan. RESULTS: Compared with Anhui province, the proportion of health states which showed 2 times or more differences ranged from 1.94% (Henan) to 11.17% (Sichuan) in China and domestic provinces. It was 19.88% in Japan and 21.51% in GBD 2013 respectively. In Asian countries or regions, most of the health states with top 15 DWs belonged to the category of mental, behavioral, and substance use disorders. But in GBD, most were infectious diseases and cancer. The differences of DWs in neighboring provinces were smaller than other geographically distant provinces or countries. CONCLUSION: PC responses were largely consistent across very distinct settings,but the exceptions do need to be faced squarely.The differences of DWs among similar-cultural regions were smaller than cross-cultural regions. There is an urgent need for relevant gold standards.

Association between ambient sulfur dioxide pollution and asthma mortality: Evidence from a nationwide analysis in China.

There is a lack of research on the effects of acute exposure to ambient sulfur dioxide (SO2) on mortality caused by asthma, especially nationwide research in China. To explore the acute effect of exposure to ambient SO2 on asthma mortality using nationwide dataset in China from 2015 to 2020 and further evaluate the associations in subgroups with different geographical and demographic characteristics. We used data from China's Disease Surveillance Points system with 29,553 asthma deaths in China during 2015-2020. The exposure variable was the daily mean concentrations of SO2 from the ChinaHighSO2 10 km × 10 km daily grid dataset. Bilinear interpolation was used to estimate each individual's exposure to air pollutants and meteorological variables. We used a time-stratified case crossover design at the individual level to analyze the exposure response relationship between short-term exposure to SO2 and asthma mortality. Stratified analyses were carried out by sex, age group, marital status, warm season and cold season, urbanicity and region. Significant associations between short-term exposure to ambient SO2 and increased asthma mortality were found in this nationwide study. The excess risk (ER) for each 10 µg/m3 increase in SO2 concentrations at lag07 was 7.78 % (95 % CI, 4.16-11.52 %). Season appeared to significantly modify the association. The associations were stronger in cold season (ER 9.78 %, 95 % CI:5.82 -13.89 %). The association remained consistent using different lag periods, adjusting for other pollutants, and in the analysis during pre-Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) period. Our study indicates increased risk of asthma mortality with acute exposures to SO2 in Chinese population. The current study lends support for greater awareness of the harmful effect of SO2 in China and other countries with high SO2 pollution.

Trend of nasopharyngeal carcinoma mortality and years of life lost in China and its provinces from 2005 to 2020.

To examine the trends of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) mortality and years of life lost (YLL) in China and its provinces from 2005 to 2020, our study used data from China National Mortality Surveillance System (NMSS) to estimate the number and rate of mortality and YLL of NPC by age and sex. We calculated average annual percent change (AAPC) to describe the trend of NPC mortality and YLL over time. We also analyzed the proportion of NPC deaths in all cancer deaths and explored the drivers of change in NPC deaths by decomposition analysis. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of NPC in China had a significant downward trend from 2.0/100 000 in 2005 to 1.4/100 000 in 2020 (AAPC = -2.4, P < .05). Age-standardized YLL rate also showed the similar trends (AAPC = -2.8, P < .05). Southern provinces including Guangdong (163.9/100 000), Guangxi (130.5/100 000), and Hainan (105.6/100 000) had the highest YLL rate in 2020. The mortality and YLL rate increased with age and males were higher than females. From 2005 to 2020, the proportion of NPC deaths in all cancer deaths remained stable at around 1.0% in China. The total number of deaths of NPC increased by 7.3%, of which age-specific mortality, population growth, and population aging accounted for -46.2%, 8.5% and 45.0%, respectively. NPC remains a significant public health issue in China southern provinces and tailored prevention and control strategies should be strengthened to reduce the burden of premature mortality of NPC in high risk areas.

Trends in smoking prevalence in urban and rural China, 2007 to 2018: Findings from 5 consecutive nationally representative cross-sectional surveys.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco smoking is a leading cause of premature death in China, especially among adult men. Since the implementation of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control in 2005, nationwide tobacco control has been strengthened, but its long-term impact on smoking prevalence is unclear. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Five nationally representative surveys of the China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance (CCDRFS) were conducted in 2007, 2010, 2013, 2015, and 2018. A total of 624,568 adults (278,605 men and 345,963 women) aged 18 to 69 years were randomly selected from 31 provinces (or equivalent) in China. Temporal changes in smoking prevalence and patterns (e.g., percentages of those smoking manufactured cigarettes, amount smoked, and age at smoking initiation) were analyzed, overall and by sex, urban or rural residence, year of birth, education and occupation, using linear regression methods. Among men, the standardized prevalence of current smoking decreased from 58.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 56.1 to 60.7) to 50.8% (95% CI: 49.1 to 52.5, p < 0.001) between 2007 and 2018, with annual decrease more pronounced in urban (55.7% [95% CI: 51.2 to 60.3] to 46.3% [95% CI: 43.7 to 49.0], p < 0.001) than rural men (59.9% [95% CI: 57.5 to 62.4] to 54.6% [95% CI: 52.6 to 56.6], p = 0.05) and in those born before than after 1980. Among rural men born after 1990, however, the prevalence increased from 40.2% [95% CI: 34.0 to 46.4] to 52.1% ([95% CI: 45.7 to 58.5], p = 0.007), with the increase taking place mainly before 2015. Among women, smoking prevalence remained extremely low at around 2% during 2007 to 2018. No significant changes of current smoking prevalence (53.9% to 50.8%, p = 0.22) were observed in male patients with at least 1 of major chronic diseases (e.g., hypertension, diabetes, myocardial infarction, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)). In 2018, 25.6% of adults aged ≥18 years smoked, translating into an estimated 282 million smokers (271 million men and 11 million women) in China. Across 31 provinces, smoking prevalence varied greatly. The 3 provinces (Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hunan) with highest per capita tobacco production had highest smoking prevalence in men (68.0%, 63.4%, and 61.5%, respectively), while lowest prevalence was observed in Shanghai (34.8%). Since the children and teenage groups were not included in the surveys, we could not assess the smoking trends among youths. Furthermore, since the smoking behavior was self-reported, the smoking prevalence could be underestimated due to reporting bias. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that the smoking prevalence has decreased steadily in recent decades in China, but there were diverging trends between urban and rural areas, especially among men born after 1980. Future tobacco control strategies should target rural young men, regions with high tobacco production, and patients suffering from chronic diseases.

Body-mass index and obesity in urban and rural China: findings from consecutive nationally representative surveys during 2004-18.

BACKGROUND: In China, mean body-mass index (BMI) and obesity in adults have increased steadily since the early 1980s. However, to our knowledge, there has been no reliable assessment of recent trends, nationally, regionally, or in certain population subgroups. To address this evidence gap, we present detailed analyses of relevant data from six consecutive nationally representative health surveys done between 2004 and 2018. We aimed to examine the long-term and recent trends in mean BMI and prevalence of obesity among Chinese adults, with specific emphasis on changes before and after 2010 (when various national non-communicable disease prevention programmes were initiated), assess how these trends might vary by sex, age, urban-rural locality, and socioeconomic status, and estimate the number of people who were obese in 2018 compared with 2004. METHODS: We used data from the China Chronic Disease and Risk Factors Surveillance programme, which was established in 2004 with the aim to provide periodic nationwide data on the prevalence of major chronic diseases and the associated behavioural and metabolic risk factors in the general population. Between 2004 and 2018 six nationally representative surveys were done. 776 571 individuals were invited and 746 020 (96·1%) participated, including 33 051 in 2004, 51 050 in 2007, 98 174 in 2010, 189 115 in 2013, 189 754 in 2015, and 184 876 in 2018. After exclusions, 645 223 participants aged 18-69 years remained for the present analyses. The mean BMI and prevalence of obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) were calculated and time trends compared by sex, age, urban-rural locality, geographical region, and socioeconomic status. FINDINGS: Standardised mean BMI levels rose from 22·7 kg/m2 (95% CI 22·5-22·9) in 2004 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·3-24·6) in 2018 and obesity prevalence from 3·1% (2·5-3·7) to 8·1% (7·6-8·7). Between 2010 and 2018, mean BMI rose by 0·09 kg/m2 annually (0·06-0·11), which was half of that reported during 2004-10 (0·17 kg/m2, 95% CI 0·12-0·22). Similarly, the annual increase in obesity prevalence was somewhat smaller after 2010 than before 2010 (6·0% annual relative increase, 95% CI 4·4-7·6 vs 8·7% annual relative increase, 4·9-12·8; p=0·13). Since 2010, the rise in mean BMI and obesity prevalence has slowed down substantially in urban men and women, and moderately in rural men, but continued steadily in rural women. By 2018, mean BMI was higher in rural than urban women (24·3 kg/m2vs 23·9 kg/m2; p=0·0045), but remained lower in rural than urban men (24·5 kg/m2vs 25·1 kg/m2; p=0·0007). Across all six surveys, mean BMI was persistently lower in women with higher levels of education compared with women with lower levels of education, but the inverse was true among men. Overall, an estimated 85 million adults (95% CI 70 million-100 million; 48 million men [95% CI 39 million-57 million] and 37 million women [31 million-43 million]) aged 18-69 years in China were obese in 2018, which was three times as many as in 2004. INTERPRETATION: In China, the rise in mean BMI among the adult population appears to have slowed down over the past decade. However, we found divergent trends by sex, geographical area, and socioeconomic status, highlighting the need for a more targeted approach to prevent further increases in obesity in the Chinese general population. FUNDING: China National Key Research and Development Program, China National Key Project of Public Health Program, and Youth Scientific Research Foundation of the National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

Estimating the cause-specific relative risks of non-optimal temperature on daily mortality: a two-part modelling approach applied to the Global Burden of Disease Study.

BACKGROUND: Associations between high and low temperatures and increases in mortality and morbidity have been previously reported, yet no comprehensive assessment of disease burden has been done. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the global and regional burden due to non-optimal temperature exposure. METHODS: In part 1 of this study, we linked deaths to daily temperature estimates from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. We modelled the cause-specific relative risks for 176 individual causes of death along daily temperature and 23 mean temperature zones using a two-dimensional spline within a Bayesian meta-regression framework. We then calculated the cause-specific and total temperature-attributable burden for the countries for which daily mortality data were available. In part 2, we applied cause-specific relative risks from part 1 to all locations globally. We combined exposure-response curves with daily gridded temperature and calculated the cause-specific burden based on the underlying burden of disease from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, for the years 1990-2019. Uncertainty from all components of the modelling chain, including risks, temperature exposure, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels, defined as the temperature of minimum mortality across all included causes, was propagated using posterior simulation of 1000 draws. FINDINGS: We included 64·9 million individual International Classification of Diseases-coded deaths from nine different countries, occurring between Jan 1, 1980, and Dec 31, 2016. 17 causes of death met the inclusion criteria. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, hypertensive heart disease, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, lower respiratory infection, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease showed J-shaped relationships with daily temperature, whereas the risk of external causes (eg, homicide, suicide, drowning, and related to disasters, mechanical, transport, and other unintentional injuries) increased monotonically with temperature. The theoretical minimum risk exposure levels varied by location and year as a function of the underlying cause of death composition. Estimates for non-optimal temperature ranged from 7·98 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 7·10-8·85) per 100 000 and a population attributable fraction (PAF) of 1·2% (1·1-1·4) in Brazil to 35·1 deaths (29·9-40·3) per 100 000 and a PAF of 4·7% (4·3-5·1) in China. In 2019, the average cold-attributable mortality exceeded heat-attributable mortality in all countries for which data were available. Cold effects were most pronounced in China with PAFs of 4·3% (3·9-4·7) and attributable rates of 32·0 deaths (27·2-36·8) per 100 000 and in New Zealand with 3·4% (2·9-3·9) and 26·4 deaths (22·1-30·2). Heat effects were most pronounced in China with PAFs of 0·4% (0·3-0·6) and attributable rates of 3·25 deaths (2·39-4·24) per 100 000 and in Brazil with 0·4% (0·3-0·5) and 2·71 deaths (2·15-3·37). When applying our framework to all countries globally, we estimated that 1·69 million (1·52-1·83) deaths were attributable to non-optimal temperature globally in 2019. The highest heat-attributable burdens were observed in south and southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and North Africa and the Middle East, and the highest cold-attributable burdens in eastern and central Europe, and central Asia. INTERPRETATION: Acute heat and cold exposure can increase or decrease the risk of mortality for a diverse set of causes of death. Although in most regions cold effects dominate, locations with high prevailing temperatures can exhibit substantial heat effects far exceeding cold-attributable burden. Particularly, a high burden of external causes of death contributed to strong heat impacts, but cardiorespiratory diseases and metabolic diseases could also be substantial contributors. Changes in both exposures and the composition of causes of death drove changes in risk over time. Steady increases in exposure to the risk of high temperature are of increasing concern for health. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Spatiotemporal trends and ecological determinants of cardiovascular mortality among 2844 counties in mainland China, 2006-2020: a Bayesian modeling study of national mortality registries.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in China. No previous study has reported CVD mortality at county-level, and little was known about the nonmedical ecological factors of CVD mortality at such small scale in mainland China. Understanding the spatiotemporal variations of CVD mortality and examining its nonmedical ecological factors would be of great importance to tailor local public health policies. METHODS: By using national mortality registration data in China, this study used hierarchical spatiotemporal Bayesian model to demonstrate spatiotemporal distribution of CVD mortality in 2844 counties during 2006 to 2020 and investigate how nonmedical ecological determinants have affected CVD mortality inequities from the spatial perspectives. RESULTS: During 2006-2020, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of CVD decreased from 284.77 per 100,000 in 2006 to 241.34 per 100,000 in 2020. Among 2844 counties, 1144 (40.22%) were hot spots counties with a higher CVD mortality risk compared to the national average and located mostly in northeast, north central, and westernmost regions; on the contrary, 1551 (54.53%) were cold spots counties and located mostly in south and southeast coastal counties. CVD mortality risk decreased from 2006 to 2020 was larger in counties where CVD mortality rate had been higher in 2006 in most of the counties, vice versa. Nationwide, nighttime light intensity (NTL) was the major influencing factor of CVD mortality, a higher NTL appeared to be negatively associated with a lower CVD mortality, with one unit increase in NTL, and the CVD mortality risk will decrease 11% (relative risk of NTL was estimated as 0.89 with 95% confidence interval of 0.83-0.94). CONCLUSIONS: Substantial between-county discrepancies of CVD mortality distribution were observed during past 15 years in mainland China. Nonmedical ecological determinants were estimated to significantly explain the overall and local spatiotemporal patterns of this CVD mortality risk. Targeted considerations are needed to integrate primary care with clinical care through intensifying further strategies to narrow unequally distribution of CVD mortality at local scale. The approach to county-level analysis with small area models has the potential to provide novel insights into Chinese disease-specific mortality burden.

The prevalence and management of chronic pain in the Chinese population: findings from the China Pain Health Index (2020).

BACKGROUND: Chronic pain is a common disease; about 20% of people worldwide suffer from it. While compared with the research on the prevalence and management of chronic pain in developed countries, there is a relative lack of research in this field in China. This research aims to construct the China Pain Health Index (CPHI) to evaluate the current status of the prevalence and management of chronic pain in the Chinese population. METHODS: The dimensions and indicators of CPHI were determined through literature review, Delphi method, and analytical hierarchy process model, and the original values ​​of relevant indicators were obtained by collecting multi-source data. National and sub-provincial scores of CPHI (2020) were calculated by co-directional transformation, standardization, percentage transformation of the aggregate, and weighted summation. RESULTS: The highest CPHI score in 2020 is Beijing, and the lowest is Tibet. The top five provinces are Beijing (67.64 points), Shanghai (67.04 points), Zhejiang (65.74 points), Shandong (61.16 points), and Tianjin (59.99 points). The last five provinces are Tibet (33.10 points), Ningxia (37.24 points), Guizhou (39.85 points), Xinjiang (39.92 points), and Hainan (40.38 points). The prevalence of chronic pain is severe in Heilongjiang, Chongqing, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Fujian. Guizhou, Hainan, Xinjiang, Beijing, and Guangdong display a high burden of chronic pain. The five provinces of Guangdong, Shanghai, Beijing, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang have better treatment for chronic pain, while Tibet, Qinghai, Jilin, Ningxia, and Xinjiang have a lower quality of treatment. Beijing, Shanghai, Qinghai, Guangxi, and Hunan have relatively good development of chronic pain disciplines, while Tibet, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, and Guizhou are relatively poor. CONCLUSION: The economically developed provinces in China have higher CPHI scores, while economically underdeveloped areas have lower scores. The current pain diagnosis and treatment situation in economically developed regions is relatively good, while that in financially underdeveloped areas is rather poor. According to the variations in the prevalence and management of chronic pain among populations in different provinces in China, it is necessary to implement chronic pain intervention measures adapted to local conditions.

The establishment of Air Quality Health Index in China: A comparative analysis of methodological approaches.

BACKGROUND: The Air Quality Index (AQI) has been criticized because it does not adequately account for the health effect of multi-pollutants. Although the developed Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) is a more effective communication tool, little is known about the best method to construct AQHI on long time and large spatial scales. OBJECTIVES: To further evaluate the validity of existing approaches to the establishment of AQHI on both long time and larger spatial scales. METHODS: By introducing 3 approaches addressing multi-pollutant exposures: cumulative risk index (CRI), supervised principal component analysis (SPCA), and Bayesian multi-pollutants weighted model (BMP), we constructed CRI-AQHI, SPCA-AQHI, BMP-AQHI and standard-AQHI on cardiovascular mortality in China from 2015 to 2019 at both the national and geographic regional levels. We further assessed the performance of the four methods in estimating the joint effect of multi-pollutants by simulations under various scenarios of pollution effect. RESULTS: The results of national China showed that the BMP-AQHI improved the goodness of fit of the standard-AQHI by 108.24%, followed by CRI-AQHI (5.02%), and all AQHIs performed better than AQI, consistent with 6 geographic regional results. In addition, the simulation result showed that the BMP method provided stable and relatively accurate estimations of the short-term combined effect of exposure to multi-pollutants. CONCLUSIONS: AQHI based on BMP could communicate the air pollution risk to the public more effectively than the current AQHI and AQI.

Age-specific disparity in life loss per death attributable to ambient temperature: A nationwide time-series study in China.

Age-specific discrepancy of mortality burden attributed to temperature, measured as years of life lost (YLL), has been rarely investigated. We investigated age-specific temperature-YLL rates (per 100,000) relationships and quantified YLL per death caused by non-optimal temperature in China. We collected daily meteorological data, population data and daily death counts from 364 locations in China during 2006-2017. YLL was divided into three age groups (0-64 years, 65-74 years, and ≥75 years). A distributed lag non-linear model was first employed to estimate the associations of temperature with age-specific YLL rates in each location. Then we pooled the associations using a multivariate meta-analysis. Finally, we calculated age-specific average YLL per death caused by temperature by cause of death and region. We observed greater effects of cold and hot temperature on YLL rates for the elderly compared with the young population by region or cause of death. However, YLL per death due to non-optimal temperature for different regions or causes of death decreased with age, with 2.0 (95 % CI:1.5, 2.5), 1.2 (1.1, 1.4) and 1.0 years (0.9, 1.2) life loss per death for populations aged 0-64 years, 65-74 years and over 75 years, respectively. Most life loss per death results from moderate temperature, especially moderate cold for all age groups. The effect of non-optimal temperature on YLL rates is smaller for younger populations than older ones, while the temperature-related life loss per death was more prominent for younger populations.

The burden of pneumoconiosis in China: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Pneumoconiosis refers to a class of serious diseases threatening the health of workers exposed to coal or silicosis dust. However, the burden of pneumoconiosis is unavailable in China. METHODS: Incident cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from pneumoconiosis and its subtypes in China were estimated from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 using a Bayesian meta-regression method. The trend of the burden from pneumoconiosis was analyzed using percentage change and annualized rate of change (ARC) during the period 1990-2019. The relationship between subnational socio-demographic index (SDI) and the ARC of age-standardised death rate was measured using Spearman's Rank-Order Correlation. RESULTS: In 2019, there were 136.8 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 113.7-162.5) thousand new cases, 10.2 (8.1-13.6) thousand deaths, and 608.7 (473.6-779.4) thousand DALYs from pneumoconiosis in China. Of the global burdens from pneumoconiosis, more than 60% were in China. Both the total number of new cases and DALYs from pneumoconiosis was keeping increasing from 1990 to 2019. In contrast, the age-standardised incidence, death, and DALY rates from pneumoconiosis and its subtypes, except for the age-standardised incidence rate of silicosis, and age-standardised death rate of asbestosis, experienced a significant decline during the same period. The subnational age-standardised death rates were higher in western China than in eastern China. Meanwhile, the subnational ARC of age-standardised death rates due to pneumoconiosis and its subtypes were significantly negatively correlated with SDI in 2019. CONCLUSION: China suffers the largest health loss from pneumoconiosis in the world. Reducing the burden of pneumoconiosis is still an urgent task in China.