ABSTRACT
The Caribbean fruit fly, Anastrepha suspensa (Lower, 1862) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is a pest of significant economic importance in Central America and Florida (USA). This study was carried out to examine the influence of climate change on the space-time distribution of A. suspensa on temporal and spatial scales. The CLIMEX software was used to model the current distribution and for climate change. The future distribution was performed using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under the emission scenarios (SRES) A2 and A1B for the years 2050, 2080, and 2100. The results indicate a low potential for global distribution of A. suspensa in all scenarios studied. However, tropical areas were identified with high climatic suitability for A. suspensa in South America, Central America, Africa, and Oceania until the end of the century. Projections of areas with climatic suitability for A. suspensa can provide helpful information to develop preventive strategies of phytosanitary management avoiding economic impacts with the introduction of the species.
Subject(s)
Tephritidae , Animals , Software , Forecasting , Climate Change , Central AmericaABSTRACT
Scirtothrips dorsalis Hood (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) is an invasive pest that is popularly known as chilli thrips. This insect pest has a wide range of hosts distributed across 72 plant families, causing damage to numerous crops of great economic importance. In the Americas, it is present in the USA, Mexico, Suriname, Venezuela, Colombia, and some Caribbean Islands. Knowing the regions which have environmentally suitable conditions for the survival of this pest is important for phytosanitary monitoring and inspection. Thus, our objective was to forecast the distribution potential of S. dorsalis with a focus on the Americas. Models were produced to design this distribution, in which the environmental variables used were made available in Wordclim version 2.1. The algorithms used for the modeling were the generalized additive model (GAM), generalized linear model (GLM), maximum entropy (MAXENT), random forest (RF), and Bioclim, in addition to the ensemble, which consisted of the grouping of the algorithms used. The metrics used to evaluate the models were area over the curve (AUC), true ability statistics (TSS), and Sorensen score. All models had satisfactory results (> 0.8) for all metrics used. In North America, the model showed favorable regions on the west coast of the USA and east coast near New York. In South America, the potential distribution of the pest is significant, encompassing regions in all countries. It is concluded that S. dorsalis has suitable areas for the occurrence in the three American subcontinents and, in particular, a large part of South America.
Subject(s)
Thysanoptera , Animals , Insecta , South America , Crops, Agricultural , EcosystemABSTRACT
The Caribbean fruit fly Anastrepha suspensa (Diptera: Tephritidae) is a polyphagous pest causing economic losses in Central America, the Caribbean and South Florida. The parasitoid wasp Diachasmimorpha longicaudata (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) is the main parasitoid of A. suspensa in biological control programs. In this study, by modeling with CLIMEX software, climatically suitable areas were projected according to historical climate data. Areas with overlapping optimal climatic suitability for the joint establishment of the pest and parasitoid were mapped, indicating large areas with host presence in North, Central, and South America, with cold stress being the main climatic factor limiting distribution for both species. Tropical regions have the most potential for invasion, with optimal suitability in many areas. Through the projected distributions, this study can target quarantine strategies in areas most susceptible to invasion and establishment of the pest in each country. In addition, classical biological control with the parasitoid in areas with climatic suitability is also recommended.