GWAS of longitudinal trajectories at biobank scale.

Biobanks linked to massive, longitudinal electronic health record (EHR) data make numerous new genetic research questions feasible. One among these is the study of biomarker trajectories. For example, high blood pressure measurements over visits strongly predict stroke onset, and consistently high fasting glucose and Hb1Ac levels define diabetes. Recent research reveals that not only the mean level of biomarker trajectories but also their fluctuations, or within-subject (WS) variability, are risk factors for many diseases. Glycemic variation, for instance, is recently considered an important clinical metric in diabetes management. It is crucial to identify the genetic factors that shift the mean or alter the WS variability of a biomarker trajectory. Compared to traditional cross-sectional studies, trajectory analysis utilizes more data points and captures a complete picture of the impact of time-varying factors, including medication history and lifestyle. Currently, there are no efficient tools for genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of biomarker trajectories at the biobank scale, even for just mean effects. We propose TrajGWAS, a linear mixed effect model-based method for testing genetic effects that shift the mean or alter the WS variability of a biomarker trajectory. It is scalable to biobank data with 100,000 to 1,000,000 individuals and many longitudinal measurements and robust to distributional assumptions. Simulation studies corroborate that TrajGWAS controls the type I error rate and is powerful. Analysis of eleven biomarkers measured longitudinally and extracted from UK Biobank primary care data for more than 150,000 participants with 1,800,000 observations reveals loci that significantly alter the mean or WS variability.

Identifying local associations in biological time series: algorithms, statistical significance, and applications.

Local associations refer to spatial-temporal correlations that emerge from the biological realm, such as time-dependent gene co-expression or seasonal interactions between microbes. One can reveal the intricate dynamics and inherent interactions of biological systems by examining the biological time series data for these associations. To accomplish this goal, local similarity analysis algorithms and statistical methods that facilitate the local alignment of time series and assess the significance of the resulting alignments have been developed. Although these algorithms were initially devised for gene expression analysis from microarrays, they have been adapted and accelerated for multi-omics next generation sequencing datasets, achieving high scientific impact. In this review, we present an overview of the historical developments and recent advances for local similarity analysis algorithms, their statistical properties, and real applications in analyzing biological time series data. The benchmark data and analysis scripts used in this review are freely available at http://github.com/labxscut/lsareview.

Trend estimation and short-term forecasting of COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide.

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, many dashboards have emerged as useful tools to monitor its evolution, inform the public, and assist governments in decision-making. Here, we present a globally applicable method, integrated in a daily updated dashboard that provides an estimate of the trend in the evolution of the number of cases and deaths from reported data of more than 200 countries and territories, as well as 7-d forecasts. One of the significant difficulties in managing a quickly propagating epidemic is that the details of the dynamic needed to forecast its evolution are obscured by the delays in the identification of cases and deaths and by irregular reporting. Our forecasting methodology substantially relies on estimating the underlying trend in the observed time series using robust seasonal trend decomposition techniques. This allows us to obtain forecasts with simple yet effective extrapolation methods in linear or log scale. We present the results of an assessment of our forecasting methodology and discuss its application to the production of global and regional risk maps.

Spatio-temporal analysis of toxigenic genes expression in the growing Bufo gargarizans based on RNA sequencing data.

BACKGROUND: Bufo gargarizans Cantor, a widely distributed amphibian species in Asia, produces and releases toxins through its retroauricular and granular glands. Although various tissues have been sequenced, the molecular mechanisms underlying the toxin production remain unclear. To elucidate these mechanisms, abdominal skin (non-toxic secretory glands) and retroauricular gland (toxic secreting glands) samples were collected at different time points (3, 6, 12, 24, and 36 months) for RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) and analysis. RESULTS: In comparison to the S group during the same period, a total of 3053, 3026, 1516, 1028, and 2061 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified across five developmental stages. Gene Ontology (GO) analysis revealed that DEGs were primarily enriched in biological processes including cellular processes, single-organism processes, metabolic processes, and biological regulation. In terms of cellular components, the DEGs were predominantly localized in the cell and cell parts, whereas molecular function indicated significant enrichment in binding and catalytic activity. Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway analysis showed that the metabolism and synthesis of various substances, such as lipid metabolism, cofactor and vitamin metabolism, tryptophan metabolism, steroid biosynthesis, and primary bile acid biosynthesis, were accompanied by the development of toads. Additionally, using trend analysis, we discovered candidate genes that were upregulated in the retroauricular glands during development, and the abundance of these genes in the abdominal skin was extremely low. Finally, we identified 26 genes that are likely to be involved in toxin production and that are likely to be involved in toxin anabolism. CONCLUSION: Overall, these results provide new insights into the genes involved in toxin production in B. gargarizans, which will improve our understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying toxigenic gene expression.

Trends in breast cancer incidence by estrogen receptor status in the United States, 2004-2020.

Divergent trends of breast cancer incidence by subtype have been reported in the United States and elsewhere; however, it remains unknown whether this trend has continued until the era of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using high-quality population-based cancer registry data, representing 83% of the US population, this study examined breast cancer incidence rates by estrogen receptor (ER) status in women aged 20-84 years from 2004 to 2020. The incidence rate of ER-positive cancer increased by 1.75% per year from 2004 to 2009 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.26%-3.15%) and has slowed to a 0.87% annual increase (95% CI = 0.41%-1.03%) from 2009 to 2019, followed by a 10.2% reduction from 2019 to 2020. Trends were generally similar across race and ethnicity, although young women (20-49 years), Asian or Pacific Islander, and Hispanic women experienced steady increases until 2019. The incidence rate of ER-negative cancer decreased by 3.13% annually (95% CI = -4.2% to -2.55%) from 2004 to 2012, and the decrease stabilized from 2012 to 2019 (annual percent change: 0.55%; 95% CI = -1.30% to 0.92%), followed by a 6.0% reduction from 2019 to 2020, with trends generally consistent by age and across racial and ethnic groups. The stabilization of the steep decline in ER-negative cancer suggests a departure from the encouraging trajectories projected in earlier studies. Coupled with the deceleration in the rise of ER-positive cancer, the latest trend signals a potential stabilization in the previous rise of the proportional burden of ER-positive cancer. Understanding the impact of the pandemic on each subtype of breast cancer individually may provide a more comprehensive insight into its long-term sequelae on survival and mortality.

Incidence trends of primary liver cancer in different geographical regions of China from 1978 to 2012 and projections to 2032: An age-period-cohort analysis.

China accounted for 45.3% of new cases of primary liver cancer (PLC) worldwide in 2020. While variations in PLC incidence between different regions of China and decreasing incidence in overall China have been reported, incidence patterns have not been thoroughly explored by region. We examined the nearly status and temporal trends of PLC incidence in different geographical regions in China and project future trends. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) was estimated for 1978 to 2012 by different geographical regions and gender in China. Age-period-cohort model was adopted to evaluate age and birth cohort effects on the temporal trend of five registries of China (Hong Kong, Shanghai, Jiashan, Harbin and Zhongshan), Bayesian age-period-cohort model was adopted to project future trends for 2013 to 2032. PLC incidence in China exhibits marked geographical disparity, with the highest incidence in Southwest China, and gender differences being particularly pronounced in South China. While other registries exhibited decreasing trend, Zhongshan exhibited an increasing trend, with the cohort effect showing a marked upward trend for females born in 1916 to 1949 and males born in 1916 to 1962. During 2013 to 2032, the ASR appears to increase by 86.9% for men and 40.0% for women in Zhongshan, while the remaining registries will decline by around 50%. Since the high incidence of hepatitis B virus infection in early birth cohort, recent rise of nonviral risk factors and the severe aging of the Chinese population, it may be critical to tailor future prevention and control strategies for PLC to the distribution of risk factors in different geographical regions.

Cervical cancer incidence in Denmark: Disentangling determinants of time trend.

Cervical cancer is a preventable disease. Nevertheless, stagnation has been seen in incidence rates also in countries with well-functioning healthcare. On this basis, we investigated associations between control interventions and changes in cervical cancer incidence in Denmark from 2009 to 2022. Data on human papillomavirus (HPV)-vaccination were retrieved from Staten's Serum Institute; on screening recommendations from Danish Health Authority, on screening performance from Danish Quality Database for Cervical Screening; and on cervical cancer incidence from Nordcan and Danish Cancer Register. We reported coverage with HPV vaccination (1+ dose); coverage with cervical cell samples; number of women with primary HPV tests; proportion of non-normal cell samples without timely follow-up; number of conizations; and cervical cancer incidence rates. In 2022, all women aged ≤29 had been offered childhood HPV vaccination with coverage of 80%-90%. By 2020-2022, the cervical cancer incidence rate in women aged 20-29 was 3 per 100,000; at level of disease elimination. In 2017, women aged 70+ were offered a one-time HPV screening, and by 2020-2022, the old-age peak in cervical cancer incidence had largely disappeared. From 2009 to 2022, proportion of non-normal cell samples without timely follow-up decreased from 20% to 10%, and conventional cytology was largely replaced by SurePath liquid-based cytology; these factors could explain the steady decrease in cervical cancer incidence rate. Implementation of primary HPV screening in women aged 30-59 in 2021 was reflected in a, probably temporary, increase in the 2022 cervical cancer incidence rate. In conclusion, combined interventions with childhood HPV vaccination; one-time HPV screening of elderly women; and better management of screening broke previous stagnation in cervical cancer incidence rate.

Subsite-specific trends in mid- and long-term survival for head and neck cancer patients in Japan: A population-based study.

Advances in diagnostic techniques and treatment modalities have impacted head and neck cancer (HNC) prognosis, but their effects on subsite-specific prognosis remain unclear. This study aimed to assess subsite-specific trends in mid- and long-term survival for HNC patients diagnosed from 1993 to 2011 using data from population-based cancer registries in Japan. We estimated the net survival (NS) for HNC by subsite using data from 13 prefectural population-based cancer registries in Japan. Changes in survival over time were assessed by multivariate excess hazard model of mortality. In total, 68,312 HNC patients were included in this analysis. We observed an overall improvement in 5-year NS for HNC patients in Japan. However, survival varied among subsites of HNC, with some, such as naso-, oro- and hypopharyngeal cancers, showing significant improvement in both 5- and 10-year NS, whereas others such as laryngeal cancer showed only a slight improvement in 5-year NS and no significant change in 10-year NS after adjustment for age, sex and stage. In conclusion, the study provides insights into changing HNC survival by site at the population level in Japan. Although advances in diagnostic techniques and treatment modalities have improved survival, these improvements are not shared equally among subsites.

Time trend analysis of rare cancer incidence 2011-2018: Nationwide population-based cancer registries in Japan.

Rare cancers collectively account for a significant proportion of the overall cancer burden in Japan. We aimed to describe and examine the incidence of each rare cancer and the temporal changes using the internationally agreed rare cancer classification. Cancer cases registered in regional population-based cancer registries from 2011 to 2015 and the National Cancer Registry (NCR) from 2016 to 2018 were classified into 18 families, 68 Tier-1 cancer groupings, and 216 single cancer entities based on the RARECAREnet list. Crude incidence rates and age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) were calculated for Tier-1 and Tier-2 cancers. The annual percent change and the 95% and 99% confidence limits for annual ASR for each of the 68 Tier-1 cancers were estimated using the log-linear regression of the weighted least squares method. The differences in ASRs between 2011 and 2018 were evaluated as an absolute change. A total of 5,640,879 cases were classified into Tier-1 and Tier-2 cancers. The ASRs of 18 out of 52 Tier-1 cancers in the rare cancer families increased, whereas the ASR for epithelial tumors of gallbladder decreased. The ASRs of 6 out of the 16 Tier-1 cancers in the common cancer families increased, whereas those of epithelial tumors of stomach and liver decreased. There was no significant change in the incidence of the other 40 Tier-1 cancers. The incidence of several cancers increased due to the dissemination of diagnostic concepts, improved diagnostic techniques, changes in coding practice, and the initiation of the NCR.

Secular Trends in Adherence to Healthy Behaviors Among US Adults with Diabetes, 1999-2018.

Adherence to healthy lifestyle is essential for diabetes management in light of the plateaued metabolic control, diversifying causes of death, and continued excess mortality among people with diabetes (PWD). This study aims to assess the secular trend of adherence to healthy behaviors among PWD in NHANES, a nationally representative survey of Americans using a stratified, multistage probability design in 2-year cycles since 1999. Adherence to healthy lifestyle was estimated using never smoking, moderate drinking, adequate physical activity, and healthy diet, and the score ranged 0-4. Among 7410 participants, adherence to healthy behaviors across time slightly increased from 1.4 (95% CI, 1.3 to 1.5) in 1999-2002 to 1.6 (1.5 to 1.8) in 2015-2018 (Ptrend = 0.002). The non-Hispanic Blacks caught up with the non-Hispanic Whites in overall lifestyle score (1.7 vs. 1.6 in 2015-2018), while large socioeconomic disparities remained in that participants with higher income and education level, and covered by health insurance were more likely to have adherence to healthy behaviors. As the metabolic control plateaued and causes of death have diversified among PWD, our findings suggested a great potential of lifestyle modification in facilitating the long-term health of these patients.

Survival trends among patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer before and after the approval of immunotherapy in the United States: A Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database-based study.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, the US Food and Drug Administration approved nivolumab as the first immunotherapy for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, population-based survival benefit studies after the introduction of immunotherapy in lung cancer are lacking. This study examined overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival in patients with NSCLC in the pre immunotherapy and immunotherapy eras. METHODS: This study used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, which spanned 17 registries from 2000 to 2020. Two cohorts were delineated: preimmunotherapy (2010-2014) and immunotherapy (2015-2020), which coincided with nivolumab's approval. RESULTS: This study included 191,802 patients, 90,807 in the preimmunotherapy era and 100,995 in the immunotherapy era. OS was significantly higher in the immunotherapy era, as shown by Kaplan-Meier curves (1-year OS, 40.1% vs. 33.5%; 3-year OS, 17.8% vs. 11.7%; 5-year OS, 10.7% vs. 6.8%; median OS, 8 vs. 7 months; p < .001 by log-rank test). Similarly, cancer-specific survival improved in the immunotherapy era (1-year survival, 44.0% vs. 36.8%; 3-year survival, 21.7% vs. 14.4%; 5-year survival, 14.3% vs. 9.0%; median OS, 10 vs. 8 months; p < .001 by log-rank test). Survival rates were significantly better in the immunotherapy era, as confirmed by multivariate analysis with a Cox proportional hazards model after adjusting for age, sex, race, income, and geographical area (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.830; 95% CI, 0.821-0.840; p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: In summary, the survival rate of patients with metastatic NSCLC has improved since the introduction of immunotherapy.

Brain reserve affects the expression of cognitive reserve networks.

Cognitive reserve (CR) explains differential susceptibility of cognitive performance to neuropathology. However, as brain pathologies progress, cognitive decline occurs even in individuals with initially high CR. The interplay between the structural brain health (= level of brain reserve) and CR-related brain networks therefore requires further research. Our sample included 142 individuals aged 60-70 years. National Adult Reading Test intelligence quotient (NART-IQ) was our CR proxy. On an in-scanner Letter Sternberg task, we used ordinal trend (OrT) analysis to extract a task-related brain activation pattern (OrT slope) for each participant that captures increased expression with task load (one, three, and six letters). We assessed whether OrT slope represents a neural mechanism underlying CR by associating it with task performance and NART-IQ. Additionally, we investigated how the following brain reserve measures affect the association between NART-IQ and OrT slope: mean cortical thickness, total gray matter volume, and brain volumes proximal to the areas contained in the OrT patterns. We found that higher OrT slope was associated with better task performance and higher NART-IQ. Further, the brain reserve measures were not directly associated with OrT slope, but they affected the relationship between NART-IQ and OrT slope: NART-IQ was associated with OrT slope only in individuals with high brain reserve. The degree of brain reserve has an impact on how (and perhaps whether) CR can be implemented in brain networks in older individuals.

Mapping the correlations between bandgap, HOMO, and LUMO trends for meta substituted Zn-MOFs.

Bandgap is a key property that determines electrical and optical properties in materials. Modulating the bandgap thus is critical in developing novel materials particularly semiconductors with improved features. This study examines the bandgap, highest occupied molecular orbital (HOMO), and lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (LUMO) energy level trends in a metal organic framework, metal-organic framework 5 (MOF-5), as a function of Hammett substituent effect (with the constant σm in the meta-position of the benzene ring) and solvent dielectric effect (with the constant ε). Specifically, experimental design and response surface methodologies helped to assess the significance of trends and correlations between these molecular properties with σm and ε. While the HOMO and LUMO decrease with increasing σm, the LUMO exhibits greater sensitivity to the substituent's electron withdrawing capability. The relative difference in these trends helps to explain why the bandgap tends to decrease with increasing σm.

Temporal trends in population attributable fractions of modifiable risk factors for dementia: a time-series study of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (2004-2019).

BACKGROUND: Interest in modifiable risk factors (MRFs) for dementia is high, given the personal, social, and economic impact of the disorder, especially in ageing societies such as the United Kingdom. Exploring the population attributable fraction (PAF) of dementia attributable to MRFs and how this may have changed over time remains unclear. Unravelling the temporal dynamics of MRFs is crucial for informing the development of evidence-based and effective public health policies. This investigation examined the temporal trajectories of MRFs for dementia in England. METHODS: We used data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, a panel study over eight waves collected between 2004 and 2019 (76,904 interviews in total). We calculated the PAFs for twelve MRFs (including six early- to mid-life factors and six late-life factors), as recommended by the Lancet Commission, and the individual weighted PAFs (IW-PAFs) for each risk factor. Temporal trends were analysed to understand the changes in the overall PAF and IW-PAF over the study period. Subgroup analyses were conducted by sex and socioeconomic status (SES). RESULTS: The overall PAF for dementia MRFs changed from 46.73% in 2004/2005 to 36.79% in 2018/2019, though this trend was not statistically significant. During 2004-2019, hypertension, with an average IW-PAF of 8.21%, was the primary modifiable determinant of dementia, followed by obesity (6.16%), social isolation (5.61%), hearing loss (4.81%), depression (4.72%), low education (4.63%), physical inactivity (3.26%), diabetes mellitus (2.49%), smoking (2.0%), excessive alcohol consumption (1.16%), air pollution (0.42%), and traumatic brain injury (TBI) (0.26%). During 2004-2019, only IW-PAFs of low education, social isolation, and smoking showed significant decreasing trends, while IW-PAFs of other factors either did not change significantly or increased (including TBI, diabetes mellitus, and air pollution). Upon sex-specific disaggregation, a higher overall PAF for MRFs was found among women, predominantly associated with later-life risk factors, most notably social isolation, depression, and physical inactivity. Additionally, hearing loss, classified as an early- to mid-life factor, played a supplementary role in the identified sex disparity. A comparable discrepancy was evident upon PAF evaluation by SES, with lower income groups experiencing a higher dementia risk, largely tied to later-life factors such as social isolation, physical inactivity, depression, and smoking. Early- to mid-life factors, in particular, low education and obesity, were also observed to contribute to the SES-associated divergence in dementia risk. Temporal PAF and IW-PAF trends, stratified by sex and SES, revealed that MRF PAF gaps across sex or SES categories have persisted or increased. CONCLUSIONS: In England, there was little change over time in the proportion of dementia attributable to known modifiable risk factors. The observed trends underscore the continuing relevance of these risk factors and the need for targeted public health strategies to address them.

Trends for opioid prescribing and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in patients with rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases between 2006 and 2021.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate opioid prescribing trends and assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on opioid prescribing in rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (RMDs). METHODS: Adult patients with RA, PsA, axial spondyloarthritis (AxSpA), SLE, OA and FM with opioid prescriptions between 1 January 2006 and 31 August 2021 without cancer in UK primary care were included. Age- and gender-standardized yearly rates of new and prevalent opioid users were calculated between 2006 and 2021. For prevalent users, monthly measures of mean morphine milligram equivalents (MME)/day were calculated between 2006 and 2021. To assess the impact of the pandemic, we fitted regression models to the monthly number of prevalent opioid users between January 2015 and August 2021. The time coefficient reflects the trend pre-pandemic and the interaction term coefficient represents the change in the trend during the pandemic. RESULTS: The study included 1 313 519 RMD patients. New opioid users for RA, PsA and FM increased from 2.6, 1.0 and 3.4/10 000 persons in 2006 to 4.5, 1.8 and 8.7, respectively, in 2018 or 2019. This was followed by a fall to 2.4, 1.2 and 5.9, respectively, in 2021. Prevalent opioid users for all RMDs increased from 2006 but plateaued or dropped beyond 2018, with a 4.5-fold increase in FM between 2006 and 2021. In this period, MME/day increased for all RMDs, with the highest for FM (≥35). During COVID-19 lockdowns, RA, PsA and FM showed significant changes in the trend of prevalent opioid users. The trend for FM increased pre-pandemic and started decreasing during the pandemic. CONCLUSION: The plateauing or decreasing trend of opioid users for RMDs after 2018 may reflect the efforts to tackle rising opioid prescribing in the UK. The pandemic led to fewer people on opioids for most RMDs, providing reassurance that there was no sudden increase in opioid prescribing during the pandemic.

Macroprolactin over time: Is there any point in rechecking it in people with a persistently elevated serum prolactin?

OBJECTIVE AND DESIGN: Macroprolactinemia may influence the interpretation of serum prolactin levels-a recognised phenomenon since 1981. The degree of macroprolactinaemia over time is less well described. We determined how macroprolactin status (based on polyethylene glycol (PEG) precipitation) varied by analysing serial measurements in hyperprolactinaemic individuals over a period of 9 years. PATIENTS AND MEASUREMENTS: Results from 1810 individuals were included. All serum total prolactin results (measured using Roche Cobas 8000 analyser) were extracted from the laboratory information system for the period 1 January 2012 to 1 April 2021, along with relevant patient demographic/test data. Samples with a macroprolactin screening test performed (on samples with prolactin > 700 miu/L) were included in the main analysis. RESULTS: During the study period, 2782 macroprolactin checks were performed (12.5% of all prolactin tests) in 1810 individuals (599 males/2183 females, median-age: 35, interquartile range: 25-47, range: 16-93 years). Multiple macroprolactin checks were carried out on 465 patients (1437 measurements) with 94 patients (141 measurements) screening positive (<60% recovery). Only 19 patients (18 female) had at least one result above and one below the 60% screening cut-off, with 10 of these patients having results close to the 60% cut-off; in 9 patients, results were clearly different between repeat samples. In seven cases, the adjusted monomeric prolactin showed a potentially clinically significant difference. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, only 19/465 patients appeared to change macroprolactin status based on a 60% PEG recovery cut-off. The majority of these 19 patients were on antipsychotic/antidepressant medication(s) or had a prolactinoma; in only 7 did monomeric prolactin change significantly. This suggests that once macroprolactin status has been determined, clinical decision making is rarely affected by repeating it.

Sex-specific trends in incidence of first myocardial infarction among people with and without diabetes between 1985 and 2016 in a German region.

BACKGROUND: The reduction of myocardial infarction (MI) and narrowing the gap between the populations with and without diabetes are important goals of diabetes care. We analyzed time trends for sex-specific incidence rates (IR) of first MI (both non-fatal MI and fatal MI) as well as separately for first non-fatal MI and fatal MI in the population with and without diabetes. METHODS: Using data from the KORA myocardial infarction registry (Augsburg, Germany), we estimated age-adjusted IR in people with and without diabetes, corresponding relative risks (RR), and time trends from 1985 to 2016 using Poisson regression. RESULTS: There were 19,683 people with first MI (34% fatal MI, 71% men, 30% with diabetes) between 1985 and 2016. In the entire study population, the IR of first MI decreased from 359 (95% CI: 345-374) to 236 (226-245) per 100,000 person years. In men with diabetes, IR decreased only in 2013-2016. This was due to first non-fatal MI, where IR in men with diabetes increased until 2009-2012, and slightly decreased in 2013-2016. Overall, fatal MI declined stronger than first non-fatal MI corresponding to IRs. The RR of first MI substantially increased among men from 1.40 (1.22-1.61) in 1985-1988 to 2.60 (2.26-2.99) in 1997-2000 and moderately decreased in 2013-2016: RR: 1.75 (1.47-2.09). Among women no consistent time trend for RR was observed. Time trends for RR were similar regarding first non-fatal MI and fatal MI. CONCLUSIONS: Over the study period, we found a decreased incidence of first MI and fatal MI in the entire study population. The initial increase of first non-fatal MI in men with diabetes needs further research. The gap between populations with and without diabetes remained.

Differences in femoral fracture localizations in men and women in Switzerland between 1998 and 2021-reversal of the secular trend?

Number and age-standardized incidences of femoral fractures by sex and localization were determined annually between 1998 and 2021 in subjects aged 45 years or older living in Switzerland. The number and incidences of femoral neck, pertrochanteric, subtrochanteric, and femoral shaft fractures followed distinct unexpected trend patterns. INTRODUCTION: Long-term incidence trends for femoral fractures by individual localizations are unknown. METHODS: Annual absolute number of hospitalizations and median age at hospital admission between 1998 and 2021 were extracted from the medical database of the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics by sex and 10-year age groups for the following 10th International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) codes: femoral neck (ICD-10 S72.0), pertrochanteric (S72.1), subtrochanteric (S72.2), and femoral shaft fractures (S72.3). Age-standardized incidence rates (ASI) and corresponding trends were calculated. RESULTS: Over 24 years, the number of femoral neck fractures increased in men (+ 45%) but decreased in women (- 7%) with ASI significantly decreasing by 20% and 37% (p < 0.001 for trend for both), respectively. By contrast, the number of pertrochanteric fractures increased by 67% and 45% in men and women, respectively, corresponding to a horizontal ASI-trend in men (n.s.) and a modest significant decreasing ASI-trend in women (p < 0.001). The number of subtrochanteric fractures increased in both sexes with corresponding modest significant reductions in ASI-trends (p = 0.015 and 0.002, respectively). Femoral shaft fractures almost doubled in men (+ 71%) and doubled in women (+ 100%) with corresponding significant increases in ASI-trends (p = 0.001 and p < 0.001, respectively). Age at admission increased for all fracture localizations, more so in men than in women and more so for subtrochanteric and shaft fractures than for "typical" hip fractures. CONCLUSION: Incidence changes of pertrochanteric fractures and femoral shaft fractures deserve increased attention, especially in men. Pooling diagnostic codes for defining hip fractures may hide differing patterns by localization and sex.

Epidemiology of distal radius fractures in Germany - incidence rates and trends based on inpatient and outpatient data.

We examined incidence rates (IR) for all distal radius fracture (DRF) events based on inpatient and outpatient data from a large statutory health insurance in Germany. Of all DRF, 56% were treated as inpatients, and thus, 44% treated as outpatients. IR were higher in women than in men. PURPOSE: Although a distal radius fracture (DRF) is one of the most common fractures in the elderly population, epidemiological data are limited. Many studies examine only hospitalized patients, do not analyze time trends, or include only small populations. In this retrospective population-based observational study, routine data on inpatient and outpatient care of persons aged ≥ 60 years insured by a large statutory health insurance in Germany were analyzed from 2014 to 2018. METHODS: DRF were identified by ICD-10 codes. All DRF events of an individual were considered with a corresponding individual washout period. Incidence rates (IR) and time trends were estimated assuming a Poisson distribution per 100,000 person-years, with 95% confidence intervals [95% CI] and age-sex standardization to the German population in 2018. Associations of calendar year, age, sex, and comorbidity with IR were examined using Poisson regression estimating incidence rate ratios (IRR) with CI. RESULTS: The study population consists of 974,332 insured individuals, with 16,557 experiencing one or more DRF events during the observation period. A total of 17,705 DRF events occurred, of which 9961 (56.3%) were hospitalized. Standardized IR were 439 [424-453] (inpatient: 240 [230-251], outpatient: 199 [189-209]) in 2014 and 438 [423-452] (inpatient: 238 [227-249], outpatient: 200 [190-210]) in 2018. Female sex, older age, and comorbidity were associated with higher IR and adjusted Poisson regression showed no significant time trend (IRR overall 0.994 [0.983-1.006]). CONCLUSION: A relevant proportion of DRF were treated in outpatient settings, so both inpatient and outpatient data are necessary for a valid estimate.

Declining coupling between vegetation and drought over the past three decades.

Droughts have been implicated as the main driver behind recent vegetation die-off and are projected to drive greater mortality under future climate change. Understanding the coupling relationship between vegetation and drought has been of great global interest. Currently, the coupling relationship between vegetation and drought is mainly evaluated by correlation coefficients or regression slopes. However, the optimal drought timescale of vegetation response to drought, as a key indicator reflecting vegetation sensitivity to drought, has largely been ignored. Here, we apply the optimal drought timescale identification method to examine the change in coupling between vegetation and drought over the past three decades (1982-2015) with long-term satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index data. We find substantial increasing response of vegetation to drought timescales globally, and the correlation coefficient between vegetation and drought under optimal drought timescale overall declines between 1982 and 2015. This decrease in vegetation-drought coupling is mainly observed in regions with water deficit, although its initial correlation is relatively high. However, vegetation in water-surplus regions, with low coupling in earlier stages, is prone to show an increasing trend. The observed changes may be driven by the increasing trend of atmospheric CO2 . Our findings highlight more pressing drought risk in water-surplus regions than in water-deficit regions, which advances our understanding of the long-term vegetation-drought relationship and provides essential insights for mapping future vegetation sensitivity to drought under changing climate conditions.